After the season the Yankees will have a tough choice to make. Do they allocate the payroll to sign Russell Martin, or do they let him walk and hope that Austin Romine can jump into the job? Since they do have the $189 million payroll goal, signing Martin might be difficult to justify. But, given his value to the team, especially on defense, they might find that a necessary investment. Just how valuable is Martin on defense? Anna Martin at ESPN’s Sweet Spot has a story today examining the various ways Martin works with his pitching staff. It includes the pitch-framing data we’ve discussed at length since last year, but it also talks about the more subtle aspects of the pitcher-catcher relationship. It’s definitely a quality read.
About a week ago we learned that Tim Norton was placed on the minor league DL despite reports that he was “throwing bullpens and feeling fine,” and now we finally have something resembling a real update. Brendan McGair reports that Norton is currently serving as an interim pitching coach in Extended Spring Training, and there’s a chance he’ll work in a similar capacity for the Rookie Level Gulf Coast League team once the season starts in June.
“He wants to stay in the game, but I don’t think his arm was responding like he wanted it to,” said Pat Roessler, the Yanks’ director of player development. “He just didn’t come around like we had hoped … Right now Tim is trying to make the transition into being a pitching coach for us.”
Norton, 28, was the team’s eighth round pick out of UConn in 2006. He’s battled significant shoulder problems as a pro, though last season he was on the cusp of the big leagues after striking out 46 and walking just eight in 30 IP for Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton. The shoulder acted up again, ending his season. Norton’s injury is part of the reason why the Yankees had to pick up Cory Wade. It’s too bad his right arm betrayed him, he definitely had big league ability out of the bullpen.
Over the next few days I’m going to spend some time analyzing Mark Teixeira‘s offensive performance, one of the most polarizing topics in Yankeeland. We’re going to start with the piece of the equation that actually isn’t a problem.
During his three full seasons with the Yankees, Mark Teixeira’s overall offensive performance has declined each year. He put up a .410 wOBA with the Braves and Angels during his walk year in 2008, then put together a still stellar .402 wOBA during his first year in New York. That dropped to a .367 wOBA in 2010, then again to a .361 wOBA in 2009. Now a .361 wOBA is still really good — more than 20% better than the league average — but it’s not up to the lofty standards Teixeira has set for himself with his past production and contract.
Before we get into the nuts and bolts of Teixeira’s declining offense, the very first thing we have to understand is that we’re dealing with two different hitters. As a switch-hitter, there’s a right-handed version of Teixeira and a left-handed version of Teixeira. They’re two different hitters with two different swings and two different sets of tendencies. Lumping the two together doesn’t help us identify the problem.
Here’s a look at the right-handed hitting version of Teixeira over the last five full seasons, the guy that tees off against left-handed pitchers…
HR/CON is homers per plate appearances with contact, the most accurate way to measure over-the-fence power.
Aside from the typical year-to-year ebbs and flows, Teixeira has been a consistently elite producer as a right-handed hitter since 2007. His strikeout and walk rates are both much better than the league average, he’s a .300 hitter (.306 to be exact), and his power output has actually increased each year. Because he’s hit more and more homers against lefties in recently years, his BABIP has dropped. Homers don’t count as balls in play because the defense never gets a chance to actually field them. That’s why his batting average has remained steady despite the BABIP drops; he’s traded some singles and doubles for homers. I’ll take that trade every day of the week.
Batted Ball Profile
Outside of a pretty big outlier in 2008, Teixeira’s batted ball profile as a right-handed hitter hasn’t changed much in the last half-decade (and dating back even further than that)…
Remember, the batted ball information we have these days isn’t perfect, especially when it comes to balls right on the fly ball/line drive bubble. Teixeira hit a few more air balls against lefties last year, but nothing insane. The continued rise in his HR/FB% jives with his increased homer rate, but otherwise there hasn’t been much of a change through the years. That’s a good thing, because Teixeira is a monster from the right side and any change at this point is unlikely to be positive.
Whenever you’re successful at something, the opposition is going to adjust. Here’s a look at how pitchers have attacked the right-handed hitting version of Teixeira over the last four years…
PitchFX data only goes back so far, and anything pre-2008 is unreliable. Even 2008 is pretty sketchy, but anything from 2009 through today is a-okay. Pitchers haven’t been approaching Teixeira any differently in recent years, he’s still seeing the same amount of fastballs and just a touch more changeups.
Teixeira is a difficult guy to pitch to because he always has the platoon advantage. Most left-handed pitchers are fastball-slider guys, and the slider typically isn’t as effective against batters of the opposite hand unless you’re talking a Randy Johnson, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner type of slider. Teixeira has only seen one breaking ball out of every five pitches as a righty over the last few years, and the league hasn’t shown much inclination to adjust. Perhaps that’s a sample size issue, perhaps most left-handed pitchers just aren’t good enough to mix it up any more than they do.
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Teixeira’s offensive problems over the last two years are exclusively limited to his left-handed swing. He still hits for a high average with light tower power from the right side while also drawing walks and avoiding strikeouts. It’s the lesser used half of the platoon, but righty Tex isn’t a problem. Tomorrow we’ll begin breaking down the left-handed hitting version of Teixeira, starting with his overall performance before figuring out where exactly the decline is coming from.
Having watched the Twins play over the last week and a half, I’m pretty sure they’re not going to win 62 games this season. They’re that bad. The Yankees also completely own them, winning 63 of 80 games during the Ron Gardenhire era (including playoffs). They’re also 10-2 in new Target Field, but this series will be played in the Bronx.
What Have They Done Lately?
The Twins have won just two of their nine games this season, both against the same Angels team that just left the Bronx. They were swept by the Orioles in the season-opening series, and they were just swept by the Rangers over the weekend. Their 28 runs scored are the fewest in the league and their 48 runs allowed are the fourth most. That -20 run differential the worst in baseball. Yeah, they’re awful.
Only twice in nine games have the Twins managed to score more than three runs. They’ve mustered no more than two runs in six of ten games, and their team .311 wOBA is the fifth worst in the league. Joe Mauer (.307 wOBA) and Justin Morneau (.276 wOBA) are shells of their former selves due to injury, though they recently homered in the same game for the first time ever at Target Field. Jamie Carroll (.276 wOBA) is either going to walk or make an out, while Chris Parmalee (.262 wOBA), Danny Valencia (.238 wOBA), Ryan Doumit (.212 wOBA), and Alexi Casilla (.182 wOBA) have contributed next to nothing.
Only two regulars in Minnesota’s lineup are doing anything with the sticks. Josh Willingham (.579 wOBA) has four of the team’s seven homers while Denard Span (.433 wOBA) has been setting the table as the leadoff hitter. Recent waiver claim Clete Thomas took over the right field job from Ben Revere (.160 wOBA) and hit a homer in his first game as a Twin yesterday. You still have to respect Mauer and Morneau because of what they were, but this lineup isn’t scaring anyone.
Monday: RHP Freddy Garcia vs. RHP Carl Pavano
Pavano has a special place in the hearts of Yankees fans thanks to his hilariously injury-riddled and ineffective stint in pinstripes back in the mid-aughts. Ironically enough, he’s turned into a innings eater since leaving New York, though he hasn’t always been effective. He owns a 4.39 ERA (4.05 FIP) over the last three years, ranking 12th in innings (656) but 35th in fWAR (9.8) among all starters. Pavano’s velocity has dropped off in a big way recently, as he now sits in the mid-80s with his sinker and low-80s with his slider, changeup, and splitter. He relies on ground balls and not strikeouts per team philosophy, and he is stingy with ball four. At 36 years old, Pavano is a junkballing righty.
Tuesday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Francisco Liriano
The Twins have one guy in their rotation — really on their entire pitching staff — that can miss bats consistently, and that’s Liriano. He’s injury prone and enigmatic, two traits that are very likely to be related. On any given night he’s capable of a ten-run stinker or a two-hit shutout. Liriano relies very heavily on his offspeed pitches, specifically his wipeout mid-80s slider and mid-80s changeup. His two fastballs — two and four-seamer — are more low-90s now than the mid-90s they average two years ago. Liriano has traditionally piled up a ton of strikeouts and ground balls, but walks have been an issue in recent years. He’s been very hit or miss against the Yankees, with a few strong games and a few duds.
Wednesday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. Jason Marquis
Marquis, a Staten Island-native, will be making his first start of the season after leaving the team to be with his family after his daughter suffered a near-fatal injury in a bicycle accident. She is recovering well, thankfully. Marquis threw a simulated game as a tune-up on Tuesday, and believe it or not, this will only be his second career start against the Yankees in his 12-year career. That’s what happens when you spend all 12 years in the NL. Marquis is a classic Twins pitcher, getting ground balls with an upper-80s sinker and no strikeouts with his mid-80s slider and low-80s changeup.
Thursday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. RHP Nick Blackburn
It’s a matchup of disappointing right-handers in the finale, though at least the Yankees don’t owe Hughes over $10MM from 2012-2013 like the Twins owe Blackburn. Like Pavano and Marquis, Blackburn is the prototypical pitch-to-contact back of the rotation dreck the Twins love so dearly. He gets ground balls (career 48.3%), doesn’t miss bats (career 4.33 K/9), and rarely walks anyone (career 2.20 BB/9). I feel like I’m repeating myself here. An upper-80s sinker, low-80s changeup, and mid-70s curveball are Blackburn’s weapons of choice. The Yankees have hit him very hard just about every time they’ve faced him through the years.
For what it’s worth, Blackburn left his last start due to shoulder discomfort, but the tests came back clean and he’s not expected to miss a start. There’s always a chance he could, however.
Minnesota’s bullpen has taken a bit of a beating over the last two days, with standout setup man Glen Perkins getting spanked for three runs in two-thirds of an inning over two games. He threw 23 pitches on Saturday and ten pitches yesterday, so it’s unlikely he’ll be available tonight. Right-handers Alex Burnett and Jared Burton have each pitched in three of the last four days, so I wouldn’t count on seeing either guy tonight barring an emergency.
The rest of the Twins’ bullpen is pretty well set. Closer Matt Capps is both terrible and well-rested, plus they have righty Jeff Gray and lefties Matt Maloney and Brian Duensing in reserve. Overall, their bullpen ranks 23rd in baseball with a 4.50 ERA, though their 3.83 FIP paints a rosier picture (13th in MLB). For the latest and greatest on the Twins, we recommend Aaron Gleeman and Twinkie Town.
Record Last Week: 5-1 (34 RS, 22 RA)
Season Record: 5-4 (46 RS, 40 RA, 5-4 pythag. record), tied for AL East lead
Opponents This Week: vs. Twins (four games, Mon. to Thurs.), @ Red Sox (three games, Fri. to Sun.)
Top stories from last week:
- The week started with three games in Baltimore, and the Yankees took the opener behind Ivan Nova. Raul Ibanez came up with a big hit in extra innings on Tuesday, then Nick Swisher did the same to complete the sweep on Wednesday.
- After Thursday’s off day, the Yankees came to the Bronx for their first home series of the season. Hiroki Kuroda dominated the Angels on Friday, but the Halos roughed up Phil Hughes in Saturday’s loss. Derek Jeter led the charge in Sunday’s rubber game win.
- Injury News: Rafael Soriano tore a finger nail warming up on Tuesday but has since returned to action. Michael Pineda will throw a bullpen session tomorrow. Manny Banuelos was placed on the minor league DL with a lat problem.
- Andy Pettitte made a pair of minor league appearances: three innings on Monday and four innings on Sunday. He’s still three or four (or more) outings away from returning to the big league team.
- Jim Leyritz is back with the Yankees on a personal services contract.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
The Angels blew the Yankees out on Saturday, so the Yankees returned the favors on Sunday. Led by their captain, the Bombers topped the Halos by the score of 11-5. Here’s a bullet point recap…
- Vintage: I dunno about you, but I’m loving this vintage 1999 model of Derek Jeter. The Cap’n has been the team’s best hitter all season, and he beefed his season line up to .366/.395/.610 with a double and a homer int this game. He also hit another ball to the warning track (off a righty!) and is just flat out locked in. Love it.
- Middle of the Order: The 3-4-5 hitters have been struggling in the early goings this season, but they broke out a bit on Sunday by going a combined 5-for-12 with three walks. Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira each doubled and stole a base. Yes, stole a base. Once those two plus Alex Rodriguez really get going, it’ll be glorious.
- Not So SuperNova: The good news is that Ivan Nova struck out eight in six innings, but the bad news is that he allowed four runs and was again pitching into and out of trouble all night. He only had one 1-2-3 inning and gave up two homers — a solo shot to Mark Trumbo and a two-run Yankee Stadium cheapie to Chris Iannetta — plus a number of other balls to the wall. He didn’t allow a single multi-run homer last season. The increased strikeout rate is great, but it appears to be costing Nova some ground balls. He was good enough, not great.
- Sorianope: Staked to a four-run lead, Rafael Soriano couldn’t escape the seventh inning before loading the bases and bringing the go-ahead run to the plate. He allowed two hits and two walks before David Robertson bailed him out. Robertson also pitched the eighth inning even though the Yankees tacked on some insurance runs, likely because he missed all that time in Spring Training and is still trying to catch up.
- Leftovers: Russell Martin drew his team-leading ninth and tenth walks of the season, pushing his OBP to .455 despite a .182 AVG … Raul Ibanez‘s two-run bomb landed in the suite level just below the upper deck; only two others (Russell Branyan and Brandon Allen) have been hit up there … I’m legit surprised Albert Pujols didn’t hit his first homer of the season in this series … I enjoyed Terry Francona in the ESPN booth, it was neat to hear him talk openly about his thoughts on various Yankees, including Manny Banuelos … Nice grab by the ball boy on a Nick Swisher line drive in the fifth; the Yankees have had a couple of good glove kids on the left side in recent years, none better than Skippy.
MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs the nerdy stats, and ESPN the updated the standings. The Yankees welcome the lowly Minnesota Twins to town for a four-game series starting Monday. It’ll be Freddy Garcia and old buddy Carl Pavano in the opener. RAB Tickets can help get you in the door if you want to catch the game.
The first two games of this series have been complete opposites. The Yankees were in total control in Friday’s win while the Angels returned the favor in Saturday’s loss. Both clubs will try to take the rubber game tonight, on Jackie Robinson Day. I highly recommend checking out Craig Robinson’s infographic on Robinson’s career, a great reminder that he was both a historic entity as both a man and player. Here’s the lineup…
RHP Ivan Nova
Tonight’s game starts a little after 8pm ET and can be seen on ESPN. Enjoy.