The Great What If: Miggy the Yankee

Four years ago this month, Alex Rodriguez opted out of the final three years of his contract, and at the time Brian Cashman was adamant the Yankees would not re-sign him. “How can we?” said the GM. “We lose all our money from Texas.” A-Rod was owed $72M during the remaining three years of the deal, but the Rangers were responsible for $21.3M of that. As soon as he opted out, Texas was off the hook.

A few weeks later, Hank Steinbrenner went over Cashman’s head and inked the reigning AL MVP to another ten-year contract. In between the opt-out and the re-signing, there were plenty of rumors about who the Yankees were targeting as their next third baseman. I remember talking about Wilson Betemit playing full-time, Miguel Tejada, Scott Rolen, Ryan Zimmerman (the next big thing at the time), you name it. One player that was both on the market and a trade target of the Yankees was Miguel Cabrera, who just helped the Tigers past the Yankees in the ALDS. This four-year-old Mark Feinsand column has the details…

Brian Cashman met with the Marlins at about 6 p.m. last night at the GM meetings. No offers were made, but a source with knowledge of the situation said the Marlins made it clear that the Yankees would have to include either Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy in any trade for Cabrera, something the Yankees are not willing to do.

The Yankees would likely offer a deal involving their next tier of prospects, which includes Alan Horne, Humberto Sanchez, Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Tabata.

“The Marlins have evidently let it be known that he’s available, so we’re looking into it,” Hank Steinbrenner said. “But everything is really very preliminary.”

[snip]

“I’m sure I’ll be challenged like I have been in the past on those guys,” Cashman said. “No one is untouchable, but some guys are less touchable than others, and those guys fall into that category. I will be tested a lot and this organization will be tested a lot on that.”

Joe Girardi had just been hired as Joe Torre’s successor, and he had managed Cabrera during his lone season at Florida’s helm. “I didn’t have any problems with him,” said the skipper. “I had him and I know what he did for me. He’s a great player and a smart player. He really understands the game of baseball. I loved having him.” Cabrera was just 24 at the time, and was coming off a .402 wOBA season, his third straight over .399. He was getting super expensive through arbitration, and the tight-walleted Marlins just couldn’t afford him.

We were in the middle of our “Save The Big Three” campaign back then, but that had nothing to do Miggy Cabrera. It was all about Johan Santana. We didn’t want to Yankees to trade any of Hughes, Joba, or IPK for Johan simply because there was just one year left on his contract and he’d shown signs of decline the previous year. For Cabrera, an elite hitter still yet to reach his prime, I’m sure we would have felt differently. I know I would have.

Cabrera (and Dontrelle Willis) eventually went to Detroit for a six-player package highlighted by Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin, an offer the Yankees likely could have matched. Baseball America ranked Maybin and Miller as the sixth and tenth prospects before the season, respectively, while Hughes and Tabata were fourth and 27th, respectively. The rest is just filling in the blanks. The question is: what would happened next?

For one, A-Rod’s time in pinstripes would have been over. Maybe he goes to the Dodgers, maybe he goes to the Red Sox, maybe he goes to the Mets. Who knows. All I know is that albatross contract would be gone, at least to a certain extent. Miggy signed an eight-year deal worth north of $150M before he ever played a game for the Tigers, so you have to figure the Yankees would have locked him up to something similar. Still, I feel a lot better about Miggy for the next six years than I do Alex.

Of course, Cabrera was a third baseman in name only. He lasted just a year-and-a-half at the hot corner for the Tigers, so chances are Mark Teixeira would not be a Yankee either. Is Adrian Beltre playing third base? Casey Blake? Derek Jeter? Jose Bautista? If Hughes and Tabata get traded, that means the Xavier NadyDamaso Marte deal looks very different, perhaps involving Austin Jackson instead. Jackson to the Pirates means no Curtis Granderson, since a condition of the Tigers dealing their center fielder was that they got a young center fielder in return. Would a Cabrera trade have meant that Ian Kennedy would still be a Yankee with Brett Gardner in center?

We could spend all day dreaming up scenarios, but it’s worth mentioning that as great a hitter as Miggy is, he’s not without his demons. He’s had three separate alcohol-related run-ins with the law; one involving an argument with his wife, one involving some strangers at a restaurant, and another when he got busted for DUI. I’m not sure how that would have gone over with the media hounds we have here in New York, but who knows how things play out in the first place. A trade changes everything, it changes career paths and it changes lives.

It’s easy to sit here and say the Yankees should have traded Hughes and whoever else for Cabrera given what we know now, but it’s never that simple. Miggy in pinstripes could have meant no 2009 World Series, or it could have meant multiple championships.  The only thing I’m pretty sure of is that he would have raked, raked and raked and raked in a much friendlier ballpark than the one he’s playing now. It’s the great what if, the question we can’t answer but can enjoy debating.

CoJo’s slump continues in the AzFL

If you’re curious about what goes on in Extended Spraining Training and Instructional League, give today’s Baseball Today podcast listen. Keith Law talks about the two leagues at length, starting around the 34-minute mark. He also spoke about winter ball briefly.

Here’s some more info on Francisco Gil’s 50-game suspension. He got busted for Sibutramine, a performance-enhancing substance.

AzFL Phoenix Desert Dogs (7-6 loss to Peoria) Monday’s game
Corban Joseph, 2B: 0 for 4, 1 BB, 1 SB – hit a homer in his first game here, but just 1-for-13 since
Rob Segedin, LF: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 RBI – has a hit in three of four games so far

AzFL Phoenix Desert Dogs (3-2 loss to Peoria) Tuesday’s game
Rob Segedin, LF: 1 for 3, 1 BB – make that hits in four of five
Dan Burawa, RHP: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 3-2 GB/FB – 18 of 28 pitches were strikes … faced 21 batters so far, but just two strikeouts

Open Thread: A goodbye to Bald Vinny

I met Vinny Milano (a.k.a. Bald Vinny) for the first time earlier this year, but I doubt he remembers me. Apparently people introduce themselves all game long. Vinny, in case you don’t know, runs a Yankees-related clothing line and also leads the Roll Call at Yankee Stadium. You all know what that is, I assume. He announced yesterday that he will not return to the bleachers next season because of married life and fatherhood, real life stuff. The Yankees never bothered to get involved with his business (either through licensing or something else), so it had to come to an end. The Roll Call was around long before Bald Vinny was and it’ll continue to be around long after he’s gone, but it’s just sad to see another piece of the Yankee Stadium experience fade away. The place just won’t sound the same in the top of the first.

Anyway, here’s tonight’s open thread. The Tigers and Rangers resume the ALCS at 8pm ET on FOX, and that’s it for sports tonight (aside from two non-local NHL games). Talk about whatever you like here, anything goes.

Kiss ‘Em Goodbye: Laffey, Proctor, Valdes

The Yankees announced today that Scott Proctor, Raul Valdes, and Aaron Laffey have all been outrighted off the 40-man roster. Proctor and Valdes elected free agency rather than accept the assignment to the minors while Laffey was claimed off waivers by the Royals. The trio combined for 5.40 ERA in 28.1 IP late in the year, but that’s almost entirely due to Proctor.

The moves clear three 40-man spots, but as Joe explained earlier, there’s seven players due to come off the 60-day DL after the season.

What Went Right: Post-DL Derek Jeter

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to look back at what went right, what went wrong, and what went as expected during the 2011 campaign.

(AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Earlier today we looked at the first half of Derek Jeter’s season, when he posted a measly .295 wOBA through the Yankees first 64 games before suffered a Grade I calf strain running out a fly ball. The injury was originally supposed to keep the Cap’n out for ten days, but it ended up shelving him for three weeks and 20 team games. Jeter rehabbed in Tampa and played in two minor league rehab games with Double-A Trenton before returning to the lineup on Independence Day.

Although that first game back against the Indians (the same team he hurt himself against) went poorly (0-for-4), the difference was noticeable the very next day. Jeter went 2-for-6 with a booming double the other way, and several of the outs were very hard hit line drives a well. Another double followed the next day. And then another the next game. And then came the fourth straight game with a double. In his sixth game back, Jeter took David Price deep for his 3,000th career hit, a no-doubt shot pulled to left. That was part of a 5-for-5 day. The time off seemed to do wonders, but it wasn’t just rest.

“Staying back,” said Jeter when asked what the difference was before and after the DL trip. “Stay back better and obviously you’re going to drive balls more. That’s what I’ve been doing since I’ve been back, so I just want it to continue. You can get a lot more work in when you don’t have to play games, so I sort of look at it as a blessing in disguise, I hope. I’ve felt good since I’ve been back.”

The results were stunning. Jeter was hitting the ball with authority after getting healthy, especially to the pull side, and the result was a .346/.393/.472 batting line in his first 38 games back. That’s not far off from the .334/.406/.465 batting line he posted during his MVP-caliber 2009 season. A sixth inning single against the Athletics on August 25th raised Jeter’s batting average to .300683, the first time he’d been over .300 since May 8th of last season, a span of 157 team games.

From the day he returned to the lineup through the end of the season, Jeter hit a remarkable .331/.384/.447 (.367 wOBA) in 314 plate appearances. His ground ball rate went from a 2010-esque 65.9% before the injury to 58.9% after, which is in line with the 57.6% grounder rate he posted from 2008-2009. The strong finished raised Derek’s overall season line to a very respectable .297/.355/.388, a .332 wOBA that ranked ninth among shortstops.

Whenever a player improves their performance after coming back from a DL stint, the vast majority of the time it’s just a matter of getting healthy. In Jeter’s case though, it was about taking advantage of the time off to work on some mechanical fixes, namely staying back on the ball so he can drive it with authority. Post-DL Derek Jeter was the Derek Jeter we’ve watched for the last 15 years, a dynamic force atop the order that hit for average, got on base, and would sneak up on pitchers with some power.

Press Conference Roundup: CC, Hughes, A-Rod, Teixeira, Posada, More

(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Joe Girardi held his annual end-of-season press conference at Yankee Stadium this afternoon, and unlike last year, there wasn’t any significant news to be broken. No coaches were fired, no secret injuries were unveiled, no talk about contracts for legacy players. The overwhelming theme was the idea of “clutch” and “clutch players,” just every other question was about that (seriously). I thought Girardi handled that well, saying that a lot of times it’s a function of luck, especially in a short series when things don’t have a chance to even out.

Anyway, the press conference was broadcast on YES, and had I know sooner, I probably would have live-blogged it. That’s my bad. Here’s a recap of the important stuff…

Starting Rotation

  • “He’s extremely important to our rotation, we rely on him heavily,” said Girardi when asked about CC Sabathia‘s opt-out clause. “I can’t imagine what it would be like without him. I don’t want to imagine what it would be like without him.” Girardi did acknowledge that Sabathia gained a few pounds during the course of the season, but he didn’t think it affected his performance.
  • On A.J. Burnett: “He’s a work in progress … lost a mile or two [off his fastball] … the adjust he made from August to September really helped him. I think we can count on him, and we’re going to need him.”
  • On Phil Hughes: “We consider him a starter, we do, but he’s got to get back to the form he had in 2010 to continue to stay in our rotation. He’s gotta stay healthy, that’s the other thing.” When asked about Hughes’ conditioning, Girardi said the right-hander is “in shape to do the job” and is happy with everyone’s work ethic.
  • “I would assume that they would both be part of our rotation,” said Girardi, referring to Hughes and Ivan Nova. “Nothing in life is every given to you, you have to earn it.”
  • On rotation depth: “[Hector Noesi]’s a guy that can start to challenge [for a starting spot].” Girardi mentioned D.J. Mitchell, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Manny Banuelos, and Dellin Betances by name as players that could push for a rotation spot at some point next year, but Noesi was the first one out of his mouth.
  • “The one need we’re going to have to address again is our rotation,” added the skipper. “It starts with CC, go from there.” When asked about adding a high-end starter even if Sabathia returns, Girardi replied: “That’s something that I’m sure we’ll look at doing.”

The Lineup

  • Girardi said all possibilities will be considered with the lineup, including Brett Gardner at leadoff. “Are you going to add? If we add someone, how do they fit in the lineup?” The batting order is something they’ll address in Spring Training.
  • “[Alex Rodriguez] is someone we need to keep healthy, first and foremost,” said the skipper. “If he plays 145-150 games, I think he’ll be much more productive.” The meniscus tear and sprained thumb were freak injuries more than anything, and Girardi said A-Rod was not more hurt than he led on down the stretch. “My expectation is he’ll be our third baseman, he might DH a little bit.”
  • On Mark Teixeira: “Some of it is luck. I think he made more contact this year than he did in the past.  Using the whole field will become important … so they can’t shift. He made a small adjustment on his openness to cut down on [balls hit into the shift] … I think he can give us more than that … I believe all of our guys can give us more. Tex, I don’t believe he’s a .240 hitter, no I don’t believe that.”
  • “Our guys will try to make adjustments to get their numbers back to where they’re used to having them,” added Girardi when asked about players who had down years.
  • On Jesus Montero: “It’s something that we will look at in Spring Training, heavily. I can’t tell you exactly what the makeup of our team will be behind the plate. Montero’s a guy that can probably do a lot of different things, DH some, catch some, gotta see the makeup of our team. I was very pleased with his at-bats in the month of September. Lot of upside there.”
  • “We expect him to have another good year and be productive for us,” said Girardi when asked about Derek Jeter. “When you’re an older player, people are always going to wonder.”
  • When asked about being too dependent on homers: “I think our offense became a little more diversified this year with the speed we had. [The homers are] part of who were are, part of the age we live in … from a speed standpoint, we can do a lot more things, we can do a lot more things this year than in years previous.”

Miscellaneous

  • “I can’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen with [Jorge Posada], but whenever you do say goodbye to someone, it’s difficult,” said Girardi. “When a player leaves a new player comes in, and I’m not saying that’s going to happen … if this is it, we’re going to miss him. There’s no doubt about it, we’re going to miss the intensity he brings.”
  • On the coaching staff: “The first guy that has to get done is Brian Cashman. I’m happy with my coaches, but that’s something I’ll talk about with Brian when the time comes.” Doesn’t seem like there will be any changes here.
  • On players pressing, in general: “I think you can do things to try and help players, but part of it has to come from within, part of it has to come from experience. It’s something we continually work on from a physical and mental standpoint.”
  • “Add a corner [infield] guy? Possibly. I’m sure we’ll look at that,” said Girardi, who expressed confidence in Eduardo Nunez being able to fill in all around the infield. “[Nunez] might even play more positions next year.”
  • Girardi joked that he could have “batted Gardy fourth and stacked my lefties” because Gardner was hitting so well in the postseason. The primary reason they used the same lineup in each game of the ALDS was that they faced four right-handed starters. If they faced a lefty, Girardi said the lineup would have looked very different.
  • “We didn’t reach out goal, that’s the bottom line,” said Girardi when asked if the season was a failure. “Bottom line is we didn’t get it done, and it starts with me.”

Second order of business: 40-man roster crunch

Hopefully Brian Cashman was just playing coy when he told the Daily News’s Mark Feinsand that he and the Steinbrenners “haven’t had any talks whatsoever” about a new contract. While a deal seems inevitable, the Yankees do have a few pressing matters they must attend to. But before they can get to player options and CC Sabathia‘s opt out, they have to address one major issue: the 40-man roster.

Plagued by injuries this year, the Yankees made good use of the 60-day disabled list. For the uninitiated, a player on the 60-day DL does not occupy a spot on the 40-man roster. After the season ends, however, the disabled list goes away and those players must return to the 40-man roster. The Yankees currently have seven players on the 60-day DL.

In most years even seven players on the 60-day DL wouldn’t cause many problems. Departing free agents come off the roster at the same time that 60-day players return, so the roster math usually works itself out. But the Yankees have surprisingly few departing free agents this off-season: Jorge Posada, Sergio Mitre, Andruw Jones, Eric Chavez, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Damaso Marte, and Luis Ayala*. Combine that with the players the Yankees must protect from the Rule 5 draft and it can create a tough situation.

*Scott Proctor is right on the edge of his six years’ service time. I’m not sure if he spent enough pre-September time in the bigs to qualify. But even if he doesn’t, the Yanks aren’t going to carry him through the winter, so we can consider him off. There’s also the matter of CC’s opt-out, but at this point even if he does come off the roster I’ll assume they’ll keep a seat warm for him.

A quick count reveals an even 40 men on the roster once the season ends, assuming Proctor’s departure. Thankfully, the Yankees already added two potential Rule 5 candidates to the roster: Austin Romine and George Kontos. That saves them a bit of trouble at year’s end. But they still need to add David Phelps, and they might want to add D.J. Mitchell, since a bottom-feeding team would almost certainly take him in the Rule 5 draft. That puts the Yankees over the limit.

There are a few expendables on the roster. Aaron Laffey and Raul Valdes are both non-tender candidates, though if the Yankees did like Valdes in September perhaps they want to keep him around. Laffey, however, is as good as gone. Reegie Corona is almost certainly a goner; his presence on the 40-man roster never really made much sense. Then there’s Colin Curtis and Justin Maxwell. They’re both expendable, and Maxwell is out of options. Chances are one of them could go as well.

The Yankees might have to find more room, too. They have spots in the starting rotation and bench that they’re not likely to fill from within. And, if reports are true, they could make room for another lefty reliever as well. Those moves create an even greater crunch on an overcrowded 40-man roster.

The Yankees, being professionals, will surely figure out who goes where in terms of the 40-man roster. In fact, they probably have a tentative plan already in place — it’s not as though they didn’t see this coming. For us, from the outside, it’s a strange picture. We know the Yankees need spots, but there don’t appear to be too many spots available. Observing how Cashman manipulates the 40-man could be one under the radar aspect of this off-season.