When will Derek reach 3000?

The Yankee captain will again be doffing his cap later this year. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Despite some simmering disputes over his rightful place in the lineup, Derek Jeter will begin the 2011 season with a milestone in sight. As he digs in against Justin Verlander to start the bottom of the first on Opening Day, Jeter will stand just 74 hits away from becoming the first person in Yankee history to rack up 3000 hits while wearing the pinstripes. Although the Yanks cheered Jeter’s franchise record-setting hit back in 2009, this year, they’ll roll out the red carpet for him.

The question often on fans’ minds then is the when of it all. When will Jeter get his 3000th hit? Will the Yankees be in the Bronx when it happens? How crazy will the media attention be? Who will the Yanks face when he does it? Since you just can’t predict baseball (Suzyn), the best we can do is try to guess when that day will be. Enter the spreadsheets.

Over the past three years, Derek Jeter has averaged 4.62 plate appearances and 4.12 at bats per game played. Over the span of 162 games, those totals drop slightly to 4.37 PAs and 3.89 ABs. He doesn’t, after all, play every game, and the 157 games he played in 2010 were a five-year high for Derek.

I plugged the Yanks’ schedule into an Excel table and set Jeter’s target batting average at four different marks. First, I picked .333, a point below his 2009 mark. Next, I went with .300, his 2008 mark and a point below his three-year aggregate total. Then, I went with .314, his career mark, and finally, I considered the worst-case scenario: a .270 mark, in line with Jeter’s final 2010 batting average.


Now a few caveats. The more likely scenario is the left column. The Yanks won’t kill Jeter early on by playing him every day, and the left column assumes that he plays 162 games a season. He just doesn’t do that anymore. Second, these projections are just that. They’re based on some simple assumptions and some simple math, nothing more, nothing less. Third, I’m assuming that Jeter sticks in the leadoff spot, but more on that in a minute.

That said, we have a pretty sense of a two-week window in early June in which Jeter ought to be approaching or passing hit number 3000. Unfortunately for the fans, if Jeter is going well, the team will be on the road when he nears the milestone. The team has a nine-game swing through Seattle, Oakland and Anaheim from May 27 through June 5. After that, the club comes back to the Bronx for 10 home games, and of course, the first three are against Boston. Imagine the craziness if Jeter is sitting on 2998 when the Red Sox come to down.

Finally, we also here in the bottom row Jeter’s worst-case scenario. If he’s hitting only .270 again this year, he won’t break the record until close to late June. The Yanks land in Chicago for a set in Wrigley on June 17, and he could very well still be trying for that hit by then. If he is hitting lower than that, these projects are likely moot because they’re based on the number of at bats Jeter gets as the leadoff hitter. If Joe Girardi drops him down in the order, expect the timeline to extend by a handful of days.

So ultimately, that’s where we stand with Jeter. I’m not going to tell you to buy tickets for any of these home games because things change. Injuries, hot streaks, slumps — they all happen. Jeter could explode out of the gate and reach his milestone by late May. He could slump and take nearly three months. With Opening Day just over three weeks away, we’ll find out soon enough, but start revving up the hype engine in the meantime.

Open Thread: March 7th Camp Notes

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

The latest from Florida…

  • The Yankees pummeled the Phillies 7-1 today thanks to homers by Eduardo Nunez (three-run) and Curtis Granderson (two-run). A.J. Burnett threw three perfect innings while Joba Chamberlain and Pedro Feliciano followed with perfect frames of their own. Eric Chavez went 3-for-3 in the offensive explosion. Here’s the box score. Burnett says his new mechanics feel “effortless,” which can only be good news. (Jack Curry)
  • It’s a split squad day, so the other half of the team is playing the Orioles tonight. That game is not on television, unfortunately.
  • CC Sabathia threw his regular side session with Larry Rothschild and Mike Harkey watching. Rafael Soriano and Ivan Nova each faced batters in a simulated game this morning, which I guess means we’re still a few days away from the former’s spring debut. (Marc Carig & Chad Jennings)
  • Andrew Brackman is on tomorrow’s travel roster, so it appears that he’ll see his first game action of the spring. Joe Girardi said that the right-hander is out of the mix for a rotation spot, however. Colin Curtis, meanwhile, had an MRI on his jammed shoulder and will be “out a while.” Russell Martin caught back-to-back games and his knee was just fine. (Erik Boland, Bryan Hoch, Carig, Carig & Carig)
  • Girardi may start toying with some different lineups after the team’s off day next Tuesday. (Carig)
  • Bernie Williams will be in camp for a few days after playing some concerts in and around Orlando. (Hoch)

This is your open thread for the evening. YES is airing a replay of today’s game against the Phillies, ditto SNY with the Mets and Tigers. MLB Network will also have the Brewers and Reds a little later on. The Knicks are playing as well. Use this thread to talk about whatever you want.

A lineup debate that doesn’t need to be

It’s quiet in Tampa these days, almost too quiet. So let’s stir up some trouble.

Trouble arrived today in the form of rumblings about the lineup. As Mark Feinsand reported, “some inside the organization” would like to see Brett Gardner leadoff while the Yanks’ manager continues to assert that Derek Jeter will hold down the lineup’s top slot. “The lineup is best with Gardner leading off,” one anonymous source said to the News. “Don’t be surprised if it winds up that way.”

If this discussion sounds familiar, that’s because it is. Just a month ago, I took a look at this issue and concluded that Gardner would probably be the better leadoff option. I wrote:

All of that is to say that the Yanks have two seemingly viable leadoff options. We can’t right now conclusively say that Brett Gardner is a better choice to bat first than Jeter. He’s not going to maintain a .600 OBP in the first inning over the course of 140 games, but his willingness to take a walk and his ability to work the count and make contact leads to good things. Jeter, on the other hand, is the long-time vet who hasn’t yet hit himself out of the spot in the lineup. If he struggles again this year, though, the Yanks have another leadoff hitter on deck.

But now that the organization is forcing the issue, should it matter who leads off? As with most things baseball related, the answer is both yes and no. First, as David Pinto noted, Brett Gardner in the leadoff spot is the ideal set-up for the Yanks’ lineup. Inserting the Yanks’ Marcel projections into his Lineup Analysis Tool, he finds that Gardner should lead off in 19 of 20 of the Yanks’ top lineups.

Yet there’s a catch, Pinto writes: “This team is blessed, however, with a very balanced lineup, so the difference between the best and worst Yankees lineups is just 0.27 runs per game, or 44 runs over a whole year. The default lineup I used, with Jeter first and Gardner ninth, comes in at just 0.045 runs short of the best, seven runs over a whole season. The worst projected OBP on the starting Yankees belongs to Curtis Granderson at .329. The AL average in 2010 came in at .327.”

The Lineup Analysis Tool doesn’t considering Jeter’s tendencies to hit into double plays or the role Brett Gardner’s stolen bases would play atop the lineup, but Pinto’s point remains: “When you have that much talent in the lineup, it really doesn’t matter where you bat the players. This team is going to score runs.”

Ultimately, Jeter’s age-related decline might force the issue. He won’t lead off forever, and the Yankees will have to move him down in the lineup. But for now, in early March without seeing Jeter earn sustained ABs against Major League pitching, he can be the once and future leadoff hitter. If he falters, Brett Gardner can easily slide into the one hole, and that’s a good problem to have.

The RAB Radio Show: March 7, 2011

It was A.J. Burnett‘s turn in the rotation today and he looked good. Joe and Mike discussed exactly what looked good. It really brings up a good question about how pitching coaches communicate with their pitchers.

Then it’s onto Eric Chavez. Barring injury he’s coming north with the team. We discuss how he’s looked and how he can help during the season.

Podcast run time 28:35

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Sport Science on Rivera’s cutter

That clip aired during yesterday’s extra-long edition of Baseball Tonight, and it breaks down the physics of Mariano Rivera‘s cut fastball. As it turns out, by the time the pitch starts to cut away from righties and in on lefties, it’s too late for the human eye to even pick up the movement. Sucks for the batters. Mariano was also on the set and discussed that clip as well as some other stuff, which you can watch here. Favorite quote: “Get it and throw it and let’s go home.”

Spring Training Game Thread: Split up

(AP Photo/David Goldman)

The Yankees are playing their first set of split squad games today, with the regular outfielders hanging around Tampa to face the Phillies this afternoon while the regular infielders hit the road to take on the Orioles tonight. That’ll be the second straight day with the road trip for guys like Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, who you’d think have built up some seniority by now to avoid such Spring Training annoyances. Oh well, sucks for them.

Here’s today’s starting lineup…

Brett Gardner, LF
Russell Martin, C
Nick Swisher, RF
Curtis Granderson, CF
Jorge Posada, DH
Eric Chavez, 1B
Jorge Vazquez, 3B
Eduardo Nunez, SS
Ramiro Pena, 2B

Available Pitchers: A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Feliciano, Hector Noesi, Mark Prior, David Robertson, Luis Ayala, Romulo Sanchez, and Warner Madrigal.

Available Position Players: Mitch Abeita (C), Jesus Montero (C), Luke Murton (1B), Corban Joseph (2B), Jose Pirela (SS), Bradley Suttle (3B), Brandon Laird (LF), Ray Kruml (CF), Jordan Parraz (RF), Neil Medchill (OF), and Gustavo Molina (DH).

If you’re curious, here’s the lineup and reserves that’ll get their work in against the Orioles this evening. Today’s game is being broadcast live on YES, beginning at 1:05pm ET. Enjoy the game.