Ivan Nova, SP
8 p.m. ET, YES Network. Do it.
Via Ken Davidoff, Lou Piniella will attend Old Timer’s Day this summer, his first time in a Yankee uniform since 1988. He’s currently a “special consultant” with the Giants, a cushy job that affords him the luxury of staying home with his elderly mother. I’m too young to have seen Piniella play, and I don’t remember anything about his time as a manager either. I was like, five when he was running things. Either way, it’ll be cool to see him there.
Joe Torre will be there this year as well, in case you missed it over the winter.
Thankfully out of Detroit, the Yankees are heading to place of recent heartbreak: Arlington, Texas. They won just one of five games played there last season, and that doesn’t include two losses in three ALCS games. The Bombers’ 2010 season ended in this stadium, as you surely remember. The Yankees already beat the Rangers in a three-game series at Yankee Stadium a few weeks ago, and they could really use another series win right now.
What Have The Rangers Done Lately?
Remember when Texas started the season with nine wins in their first ten games and looked like the best team in baseball? They’re 8-15 since then, and have lost eight of their last eleven games. The Rangers have lost five or their last six series as well, so yeah, they’re struggling.
Rangers On Offense
No Josh Hamilton and guess what? No Nelson Cruz either. The outfielder has a tight quad and hasn’t played since Tuesday, and he definitely won’t play tonight. The Rangers are hopeful that he can go tomorrow, but that’s not a given. Considering that he’s hitting just .219/.303/.438, I’m not sure if his absence is a good or bad thing for New York.
Michael Young killed the Yankees earlier in the season in Yankee Stadium, and he comes into the series with a modest six game hitting streak and a .327/.351/.500 line in his last 13 games. Ian Kinsler has been warm of late, with seven hits (four doubles) in his last 25 at-bats. Julio Borbon has five hits in his last ten at-bats following a 12-for-55 start. I’m guessing the last few games are the outlier. Elvis Andrus keeps singling opponents to death; he’s got 13 hits in his last 38 at-bats, but just one extra base hit (a double). Those four make up Texas’ hottest hitters at the moment.
Adrian Beltre has just 13 hits and five unintentional walks in his last 62 plate appearances (.241 AVG, .306 OBP) and David Murphy has hit an empty .235 over the last two weeks or so (.316 OBP, .030 ISO). Certified pain in the ass Mitch Moreland is roaming right field in Cruz’s stead, and he’s cooled down considerably of late: .212/.333/.391 in his last 39 plate appearances. Mike Napoli (two for his last 22) and Yorvit Torrealba (four for his last 22) aren’t doing much of anything, and personal fave (but Grade-A hacker) Chris Davis has five hits in seven games (playing part-time) since being recalled, though two are doubles and one went over the fence. The top of the lineup – Kinsler, Andrus, Young – is the minefield that must be navigated, though the cleanup hitting Beltre is always tough as well. At least against the Yankees.
Rangers On The Mound
Friday, LHP Matt Harrison: Same three pitchers that we saw three weeks ago, when the Yankees took two of three in the Bronx. Harrison’s scorching hot start (1.23 ERA in his first three starts, including that double play fest against the Yanks) has been followed by disaster: he’s got an 11.12 ERA in three starts since. Last time out against the A’s, he allowed four runs in just 1.2 innings. The start before that featured seven runs in three innings. The Yankees have to be patient, Harrison’s walked five batters and struck out just two in those last two starts. He’s still throwing gas, and backs it up almost exclusively with a changeup.
Saturday, LHP Derek Holland: Two earned runs in seven innings against Oakland followed three starts with exactly five earned runs allowed, including one against the Yankees. I liked Holland as a breakout candidate coming into the year, and his 3.71 FIP with a 50.4% ground ball rate looks a whole lot better than his 4.66 ERA. Another fastball-changeup heavy lefty (with the occasional slider), Holland held the Yankees in check until the late innings a few weeks ago, not getting hurt until his pitch count was well over 100. Will Ron Washington make the same mistake twice? History says yes.
Sunday, RHP Alexi Ogando: Aside from that five run, 6.1 IP effort against the Yankees a few weeks ago, Ogando has yet to allow more than two earned runs or throw fewer than six innings in any start. I don’t get it either. He’s almost exclusively a fastball-slider pitcher, and the Yankees’ lefty bats predictably did damage after seeing his shtick the second and third times through the order. Hopefully they’ll be able to jump on Ogando a little earlier since they’ll be seeing him again in a relatively short amount of time.
Bullpen: Just the Yankees’ luck, Neftali Feliz is expected to be activated off the disabled list in time for tonight’s game. That pushes Darren Oliver out of the closer’s role and back into middle relief, which he shares with Arthur Rhodes. Righty specialist Darren O’Day is out for a while with a torn labrum in his hip, but he’s been replaced with another sidearming righty: Cody Eppley. He’s appeared in four games so far, walked two and striking out three in 5.2 innings of work. Like most guys with that arm slot, Eppley is fastball-slider heavy, with an occasional changeup.
The rest of the bullpen is patchwork at the moment. Mark Lowe is the best of the bunch but he’s nothing special, and Dave Bush handles long relief duties. They also have old buddy Brett Tomko on the roster, which is good news for the Yankees. Hard throwing former top prospect Ryan Tucker is also in the mix, but these aren’t exactly Washington’s go-to relievers in big spots. The more we see of these guys this weekend, the better.
Sorry it’s late; I had a derp moment this morning between recording the podcast and the chat. Anyway, Mike and I lament the series that was, but look forward to the series in Texas. Hey, it’s three guys they’ve seen in the past three weeks. Maybe that’ll help the offense get going.
Podcast run time 20:56
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Intro music: “Die Hard” courtesy of reader Alex Kresovich. Thanks to Tyler Wilkinson for the graphic.
The Yanks made a few minor moves this afternoon as they have officially called up Ramiro Peña to replace the injured Eric Chavez on the roster. They have also designated Kevin Russo for assignment and picked up right-handed reliever Jess Todd off of waivers from the Indians. Russo, 26 and an off-season trade candidate, was hitting just .230/.306/.300 at AAA and had been taking up precious space on the team’s 40-man. The move to pick up Todd though is a strange one. Todd, once the St. Louis Cardinals’ minor league pitcher of the year, was a second round pick back in 2007, but despite minor league success, he has allowed 24 earned runs in 28.1 Major League innings. Still, he has posted over a strike out per inning and is only 25.
Hooray for mailbag day. Four questions, four topics, including one about contract extensions and two about the futures of two up-the-middle positions. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send your questions in.
Daniel asks: So I’ve heard on the RAB Radio Show that you guys aren’t huge fans of Jair Jurrjens, personally I have been. He has shown some serious signs of life … what would it take to acquire him, and would it be worth it?
I always try to find comparable pitchers when dealing with questions like this. We’ve got a 25-year-old right-hander with a career 3.41 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 6.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 45.5% ground ball rate, and two-and-a-half years of team control left (assuming a midseason trade). Jurrjens also has an injury history (including offseason knee surgery and shoulder tightness three years ago), so we can’t forget that. So who’s the comparable?
Matt Garza doesn’t fit, he had better numbers and a better track record of health, so go adjust down from there. Brandon Morrow isn’t a great match, neither is Scott Kazmir or Dan Haren. Edwin Jackson? That might work, when he went to the Tigers for Matt Joyce. Joe Blanton to the Phillies also works well, and he cost them one really good prospect (Adrian Cardenas), a decent big league ready pitching prospect (Josh Outman), and another throw-in prospect (Matt Spencer). Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena happened so long ago, but it’s still along the lines of Jackson-for-Joyce. You know what might work best? Tom Gorzelanny to the Nationals for three good prospects (A.J. Morris, Michael Burgess, and Graham Hicks).
The Blanton and Gorzelanny blueprints say three good (but not any of them great) prospects is enough, though one above-average, young big leaguer could get it done. Atlanta reportedly had interest in Eduardo Nunez, so maybe you built a package around him and one of the Triple-A arms (preferably D.J. Mitchell) is a good starting point. Fill in from there. I’m not a Jurrjens fan, but I’d almost certainly pull the trigger if that’s the cost.
Anonymous asks: People often mention Yankees as a team with great depth at catching prospects but do you think any of them can actually stick at catcher? Montero’s struggles at C has been chronicled extensively but KLaw reiterated in his chat last week that he doesn’t think Romine can stay at catcher. Sanchez supposedly has the tools to catch but is obviously struggling to field right now. J.R. Murphy‘s ability to handle catching is also doubtful from various scouting reports. So do you guys think any of them will catch in the big leagues? How would you rate each of their chances?
I don’t think Jesus Montero can catch long-term in the majors, but I think he could fake it for two or three years before he really fills out in his mid-20’s. Austin Romine is better, and Keith Law has always been the low man on his defense. Most other publications see him as average behind the dish, which is good enough. Gary Sanchez has been a defensive disaster early in his career (25 passed balls and 11 errors in 42 games behind the plate), and Murphy is spending more time in the outfield and at DH than at catcher. Those two have a long time to improve, but the early returns are not good.
Montero’s bat is so special that I’d make it work behind the plate for as long as possible, then figure things out once he’s completely unplayable. Romine almost certainly has the best chance to catch in the show when it comes to long-term staying power, though Kyle Higashioka is the best defender out of all of ’em. Too bad the kid can’t hit.
Paul asks: With the shift across the league towards locking up young players for the majority of their productive years, do you see the Yankees rethinking their strategy of not handing out extensions to their own guys? It seems with less premium players hitting free agency, this may be something to look at in the near future for the Yanks.
Yes and no. I don’t see any reason for the Yankees to take on that risk with pitchers since all we have to do is look at Chien-Ming Wang and Phil Hughes to see the potential downside. Position players are a different story since they’re generally safer bets to remain productive. They locked up Robinson Cano just as he entered his arbitration years and that contract (four years, $30M guaranteed) turned out to be a steal regardless of what happens from here on out. I don’t who would be a candidate for such a contract now, certainly not Brett Gardner or Frankie Cervelli. Maybe Montero if he comes up and kills it for two years or so. So yeah, they should at least consider such deals, but I don’t really blame them for not wanting to assume the risk when they can afford big arbitration raises.
Bill asks: What is the FA situation next year and the year after at SS? Jeter cannot be a realistic option for the next two years (hopefully) and after watch Nunez sail throw after throw against Detroit it’s safe to say he is out too.
After this season you have Jose Reyes, Yuniesky Betancourt (nope), Ronny Cedeno (also nope), and aging Jimmy Rollins (no way), and personal fave J.J. Hardy on the free agent market. The post-2012 class offers Erick Aybar and Stephen Drew, who are both legit options based on what we know right now. Jason Bartlett would be an okay stopgap at best. For better or worse, the Yankees are stuck with Jeter (or Eduardo Nunez) at short for the foreseeable future. Troy Tulowitzki or Hanley Ramirez ain’t walking the door, sorry folks.