The Teixeira Analysis: The Right-Handed Batter

Over the next few days I’m going to spend some time analyzing Mark Teixeira‘s offensive performance, one of the most polarizing topics in Yankeeland. We’re going to start with the piece of the equation that actually isn’t a problem.

(REUTERS/Steve Nesius)

During his three full seasons with the Yankees, Mark Teixeira’s overall offensive performance has declined each year. He put up a .410 wOBA with the Braves and Angels during his walk year in 2008, then put together a still stellar .402 wOBA during his first year in New York. That dropped to a .367 wOBA in 2010, then again to a .361 wOBA in 2009. Now a .361 wOBA is still really good — more than 20% better than the league average — but it’s not up to the lofty standards Teixeira has set for himself with his past production and contract.

Before we get into the nuts and bolts of Teixeira’s declining offense, the very first thing we have to understand is that we’re dealing with two different hitters. As a switch-hitter, there’s a right-handed version of Teixeira and a left-handed version of Teixeira. They’re two different hitters with two different swings and two different sets of tendencies. Lumping the two together doesn’t help us identify the problem.

Overall Performance

Here’s a look at the right-handed hitting version of Teixeira over the last five full seasons, the guy that tees off against left-handed pitchers…

AVG ISO wOBA BB% K% HR/CON BABIP
2007 0.357 0.208 0.430 11.9% 18.6% 4.9% 0.422
2008 0.303 0.179 0.393 16.5% 11.4% 3.6% 0.321
2009 0.305 0.207 0.389 12.2% 12.7% 6.0% 0.312
2010 0.278 0.250 0.403 17.0% 14.8% 6.8% 0.290
2011 0.302 0.286 0.410 10.2% 11.6% 9.0% 0.278

HR/CON is homers per plate appearances with contact, the most accurate way to measure over-the-fence power.

Aside from the typical year-to-year ebbs and flows, Teixeira has been a consistently elite producer as a right-handed hitter since 2007. His strikeout and walk rates are both much better than the league average, he’s a .300 hitter (.306 to be exact), and his power output has actually increased each year. Because he’s hit more and more homers against lefties in recently years, his BABIP has dropped. Homers don’t count as balls in play because the defense never gets a chance to actually field them. That’s why his batting average has remained steady despite the BABIP drops; he’s traded some singles and doubles for homers. I’ll take that trade every day of the week.

Batted Ball Profile

Outside of a pretty big outlier in 2008, Teixeira’s batted ball profile as a right-handed hitter hasn’t changed much in the last half-decade (and dating back even further than that)…

GB% FB% LD% IFFB% HR/FB%
2007 39.3% 36.9% 23.8% 2.5% 13.3%
2008 50.9% 29.6% 19.5% 3.0% 14.0%
2009 41.3% 38.0% 20.7% 6.0% 15.8%
2010 41.2% 38.5% 20.3% 3.4% 17.5%
2011 37.3% 42.8% 19.9% 4.8% 21.1%

Remember, the batted ball information we have these days isn’t perfect, especially when it comes to balls right on the fly ball/line drive bubble. Teixeira hit a few more air balls against lefties last year, but nothing insane. The continued rise in his HR/FB% jives with his increased homer rate, but otherwise there hasn’t been much of a change through the years. That’s a good thing, because Teixeira is a monster from the right side and any change at this point is unlikely to be positive.

Pitch Profile

Whenever you’re successful at something, the opposition is going to adjust. Here’s a look at how pitchers have attacked the right-handed hitting version of Teixeira over the last four years…

Fastballs Changeups Curveballs Sliders Misc.
2008 64.7% 16.6% 12.3% 6.1% 0.3%
2009 61.0% 14.5% 10.5% 13.8% 0.1%
2010 62.2% 18.5% 7.2% 11.7% 0.3%
2011 61.3% 17.4% 10.0% 11.1% 0.1%

PitchFX data only goes back so far, and anything pre-2008 is unreliable. Even 2008 is pretty sketchy, but anything from 2009 through today is a-okay. Pitchers haven’t been approaching Teixeira any differently in recent years, he’s still seeing the same amount of fastballs and just a touch more changeups.

Teixeira is a difficult guy to pitch to because he always has the platoon advantage. Most left-handed pitchers are fastball-slider guys, and the slider typically isn’t as effective against batters of the opposite hand unless you’re talking a Randy Johnson, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner type of slider. Teixeira has only seen one breaking ball out of every five pitches as a righty over the last few years, and the league hasn’t shown much inclination to adjust. Perhaps that’s a sample size issue, perhaps most left-handed pitchers just aren’t good enough to mix it up any more than they do.

* * *

Teixeira’s offensive problems over the last two years are exclusively limited to his left-handed swing. He still hits for a high average with light tower power from the right side while also drawing walks and avoiding strikeouts. It’s the lesser used half of the platoon, but righty Tex isn’t a problem. Tomorrow we’ll begin breaking down the left-handed hitting version of Teixeira, starting with his overall performance before figuring out where exactly the decline is coming from.

4/16-4/19 Series Preview: Minnesota Twins

(REUTERS/Eric Miller)

Having watched the Twins play over the last week and a half, I’m pretty sure they’re not going to win 62 games this season. They’re that bad. The Yankees also completely own them, winning 63 of 80 games during the Ron Gardenhire era (including playoffs). They’re also 10-2 in new Target Field, but this series will be played in the Bronx.

What Have They Done Lately?

The Twins have won just two of their nine games this season, both against the same Angels team that just left the Bronx. They were swept by the Orioles in the season-opening series, and they were just swept by the Rangers over the weekend. Their 28 runs scored are the fewest in the league and their 48 runs allowed are the fourth most. That -20 run differential the worst in baseball. Yeah, they’re awful.

Offense

(Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

Only twice in nine games have the Twins managed to score more than three runs. They’ve mustered no more than two runs in six of ten games, and their team .311 wOBA is the fifth worst in the league. Joe Mauer (.307 wOBA) and Justin Morneau (.276 wOBA) are shells of their former selves due to injury, though they recently homered in the same game for the first time ever at Target Field. Jamie Carroll (.276 wOBA) is either going to walk or make an out, while Chris Parmalee (.262 wOBA), Danny Valencia (.238 wOBA), Ryan Doumit (.212 wOBA), and Alexi Casilla (.182 wOBA) have contributed next to nothing.

Only two regulars in Minnesota’s lineup are doing anything with the sticks. Josh Willingham (.579 wOBA) has four of the team’s seven homers while Denard Span (.433 wOBA) has been setting the table as the leadoff hitter. Recent waiver claim Clete Thomas took over the right field job from Ben Revere (.160 wOBA) and hit a homer in his first game as a Twin yesterday. You still have to respect Mauer and Morneau because of what they were, but this lineup isn’t scaring anyone.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: RHP Freddy Garcia vs. RHP Carl Pavano
Pavano has a special place in the hearts of Yankees fans thanks to his hilariously injury-riddled and ineffective stint in pinstripes back in the mid-aughts. Ironically enough, he’s turned into a innings eater since leaving New York, though he hasn’t always been effective. He owns a 4.39 ERA (4.05 FIP) over the last three years, ranking 12th in innings (656) but 35th in fWAR (9.8) among all starters. Pavano’s velocity has dropped off in a big way recently, as he now sits in the mid-80s with his sinker and low-80s with his slider, changeup, and splitter. He relies on ground balls and not strikeouts per team philosophy, and he is stingy with ball four. At 36 years old, Pavano is a junkballing righty.

(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Tuesday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Francisco Liriano
The Twins have one guy in their rotation — really on their entire pitching staff — that can miss bats consistently, and that’s Liriano. He’s injury prone and enigmatic, two traits that are very likely to be related. On any given night he’s capable of a ten-run stinker or a two-hit shutout. Liriano relies very heavily on his offspeed pitches, specifically his wipeout mid-80s slider and mid-80s changeup. His two fastballs — two and four-seamer — are more low-90s now than the mid-90s they average two years ago. Liriano has traditionally piled up a ton of strikeouts and ground balls, but walks have been an issue in recent years. He’s been very hit or miss against the Yankees, with a few strong games and a few duds.

Wednesday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. Jason Marquis
Marquis, a Staten Island-native, will be making his first start of the season after leaving the team to be with his family after his daughter suffered a near-fatal injury in a bicycle accident. She is recovering well, thankfully. Marquis threw a simulated game as a tune-up on Tuesday, and believe it or not, this will only be his second career start against the Yankees in his 12-year career. That’s what happens when you spend all 12 years in the NL. Marquis is a classic Twins pitcher, getting ground balls with an upper-80s sinker and no strikeouts with his mid-80s slider and low-80s changeup.

Thursday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. RHP Nick Blackburn
It’s a matchup of disappointing right-handers in the finale, though at least the Yankees don’t owe Hughes over $10MM from 2012-2013 like the Twins owe Blackburn. Like Pavano and Marquis, Blackburn is the prototypical pitch-to-contact back of the rotation dreck the Twins love so dearly. He gets ground balls (career 48.3%), doesn’t miss bats (career 4.33 K/9), and rarely walks anyone (career 2.20 BB/9). I feel like I’m repeating myself here. An upper-80s sinker, low-80s changeup, and mid-70s curveball are Blackburn’s weapons of choice. The Yankees have hit him very hard just about every time they’ve faced him through the years.

For what it’s worth, Blackburn left his last start due to shoulder discomfort, but the tests came back clean and he’s not expected to miss a start. There’s always a chance he could, however.

Bullpen Status
Minnesota’s bullpen has taken a bit of a beating over the last two days, with standout setup man Glen Perkins getting spanked for three runs in two-thirds of an inning over two games. He threw 23 pitches on Saturday and ten pitches yesterday, so it’s unlikely he’ll be available tonight. Right-handers Alex Burnett and Jared Burton have each pitched in three of the last four days, so I wouldn’t count on seeing either guy tonight barring an emergency.

The rest of the Twins’ bullpen is pretty well set. Closer Matt Capps is both terrible and well-rested, plus they have righty Jeff Gray and lefties Matt Maloney and Brian Duensing in reserve. Overall, their bullpen ranks 23rd in baseball with a 4.50 ERA, though their 3.83 FIP paints a rosier picture (13th in MLB). For the latest and greatest on the Twins, we recommend Aaron Gleeman and Twinkie Town.

Fan Confidence Poll: April 16th, 2012

Record Last Week: 5-1 (34 RS, 22 RA)
Season Record: 5-4 (46 RS, 40 RA, 5-4 pythag. record), tied for AL East lead
Opponents This Week: vs. Twins (four games, Mon. to Thurs.), @ Red Sox (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Yanks top Halos, take Sunday night rubber game


Source: FanGraphs

The Angels blew the Yankees out on Saturday, so the Yankees returned the favors on Sunday. Led by their captain, the Bombers topped the Halos by the score of 11-5. Here’s a bullet point recap…

  • Vintage: I dunno about you, but I’m loving this vintage 1999 model of Derek Jeter. The Cap’n has been the team’s best hitter all season, and he beefed his season line up to .366/.395/.610 with a double and a homer int this game. He also hit another ball to the warning track (off a righty!) and is just flat out locked in. Love it.
  • Middle of the Order: The 3-4-5 hitters have been struggling in the early goings this season, but they broke out a bit on Sunday by going a combined 5-for-12 with three walks. Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira each doubled and stole a base. Yes, stole a base. Once those two plus Alex Rodriguez really get going, it’ll be glorious.
  • Not So SuperNova: The good news is that Ivan Nova struck out eight in six innings, but the bad news is that he allowed four runs and was again pitching into and out of trouble all night. He only had one 1-2-3 inning and gave up two homers — a solo shot to Mark Trumbo and a two-run Yankee Stadium cheapie to Chris Iannetta — plus a number of other balls to the wall. He didn’t allow a single multi-run homer last season. The increased strikeout rate is great, but it appears to be costing Nova some ground balls. He was good enough, not great.
  • Sorianope: Staked to a four-run lead, Rafael Soriano couldn’t escape the seventh inning before loading the bases and bringing the go-ahead run to the plate. He allowed two hits and two walks before David Robertson bailed him out. Robertson also pitched the eighth inning even though the Yankees tacked on some insurance runs, likely because he missed all that time in Spring Training and is still trying to catch up.
  • Leftovers: Russell Martin drew his team-leading ninth and tenth walks of the season, pushing his OBP to .455 despite a .182 AVG … Raul Ibanez‘s two-run bomb landed in the suite level just below the upper deck; only two others (Russell Branyan and Brandon Allen) have been hit up there … I’m legit surprised Albert Pujols didn’t hit his first homer of the season in this series … I enjoyed Terry Francona in the ESPN booth, it was neat to hear him talk openly about his thoughts on various Yankees, including Manny Banuelos … Nice grab by the ball boy on a Nick Swisher line drive in the fifth; the Yankees have had a couple of good glove kids on the left side in recent years, none better than Skippy.

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs the nerdy stats, and ESPN the updated the standings. The Yankees welcome the lowly Minnesota Twins to town for a four-game series starting Monday. It’ll be Freddy Garcia and old buddy Carl Pavano in the opener. RAB Tickets can help get you in the door if you want to catch the game.

Game Nine: Jackie Robinson Day

Namesake. (REUTERS/Steve Nesius)

The first two games of this series have been complete opposites. The Yankees were in total control in Friday’s win while the Angels returned the favor in Saturday’s loss. Both clubs will try to take the rubber game tonight, on Jackie Robinson Day. I highly recommend checking out Craig Robinson’s infographic on Robinson’s career, a great reminder that he was both a historic entity as both a man and player. Here’s the lineup…

SS Derek Jeter
CF Curtis Granderson
3B Alex Rodriguez
2B Robinson Cano
1B Mark Teixeira
RF Nick Swisher
DH Raul Ibanez
Russell Martin
LF Brett Gardner

RHP Ivan Nova

Tonight’s game starts a little after 8pm ET and can be seen on ESPN. Enjoy.

Austin’s bat drives Charleston to another win

Triple-A Empire State (7-2 loss to Syracuse)
2B Kevin Russo, DH Jack Cust & RF Dewayne Wise: both 0-4 — Cust and Wise both struck out twice
SS Doug Bernier: 0-3, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 E (fielding)
3B Steve Pearce: 2-4 — 12 for his last 33 (.364)
1B Brandon Laird: 1-4, 1 2B — seven hits in his last 24 at-bats (.292), and five of them are doubles
CF Colin Curtis: 1-3, 1 RBI, 1 BB
C Craig Tatum: 1-4, 1 R, 1 K, 1 PB
LF Ray Kruml: 1-3, 1 2B, 1 RBI
RHP Ramon Ortiz: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 7/6 GB/FB — 50 of 75 pitches were strikes (66.7%)
RHP Jason Bulger: 1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 WP, 2/1 GB/FB — 19 of 36 pitches were strikes (52.8%)
SwP Pat Venditte: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2/3 GB/FB — 25 of 39 pitches were strikes (64.1%) … he pitched exclusively left-handed today for an unknown reason
LHP Mike O’Connor: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 0/3 GB/FB — eight of 11 pitches were strikes

[Read more…]

Pettitte throws four scoreless in latest minor league start

Andy Pettitte made his second minor league start today, throwing four shutout innings for the High-A Tampa Yankees at the home base, GMS Field. He allowed two singles, didn’t walk a batter, and struck out three. He also generated seven ground balls — one resulting in a double play — while not allowing anything to be hit in the air. Josh Norris spoke to a scout who was at the game, and relayed this report…

There’s no word on how many pitches Pettitte threw, but he was scheduled for 50 or so. The Yankees have Andy on a regular five-day schedule now, so he’ll likely make his next start on Friday and throw 65-70 pitches. They did give him an extra day of rest last time though, so maybe he’ll get pushed back to Sunday. Either way, Pettitte appears to be three or four starts away from being an option for the big league team, assuming all goes according to plan and he doesn’t run into any physical problems.