River Avenue Blues

8/10-8/12 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

by 26 Comments

(AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

Things have gone exceedingly bad for the Blue Jays on the injury front this year, to the point where the sheer volume of pitching injuries is threatening records. The Yankees head north of the border for a three-game weekend series after taking three straight from the Jays in Yankee Stadium last month. Toronto swept a two-game series at Rogers Centre back in May.

What Have They Done Lately?

Losing. Lots and lots of Losing. The Blue Jays were just swept by the Rays in St. Pete and have lost nine of their last eleven games overall. At 53-58 with a -1 run differential, they sit in the AL East cellar with the fifth worst record in the league.

Offense

(REUTERS/Fred Thornhill)

The Yankees are catching a bit of a break this series, because Jose Bautista (140 wRC+) is still on the DL with the same left wrist injury he suffered swinging a bat the last two times these clubs met. Brett Lawrie (100 wRC+) was just placed on the DL with an oblique problem, Adam Lind (87 wRC+) is also out with a back strain, and J.P Arencibia (97 wRC+) is on the shelf with a broken finger. That’s four pretty important pieces for the Jays. Toronto have averaged 4.7 runs per game this year, but that number is down to 3.8 since Bautista got hurt.

Among the guys who are healthy, clearly the most dangerous is Edwin Encarnacion (157 wRC+). He ranks fourth in the league with 29 homers. Colby Rasmus (105 wRC+) and Yunel Escobar (72 wRC+) have both avoided the injury bug, ditto Kelly Johnson (90 wRC+), Rajai Davis (100 wRC+), and Jeff Mathis (79 wRC+). The rest of the lineup is filled with call-ups, including David Cooper (109 wRC+), Yan Gomes (49 wRC+), Moises Sierra (113 wRC+), Anthony Gose (43 wRC+), and defensive whiz Adeiny Hechavarria (-22 wRC+). All of those numbers come in limited samples, most in fewer than 100 plate appearances. Omar Vizquel (43 wRC+) is still kicking around as well. Sometimes all these call-up types can surprise you, but the obvious key to the series is keeping Encarnacion in check.

Pitching Matchups

Friday: RHP Freddy Garcia vs. LHP Ricky Romero
In a year of injuries, Romero’s drastic drop-off in performance might be the worst development for the Jays this season. The 27-year-old southpaw has pitched to a 5.47 ERA (5.06 FIP) with a mediocre strikeout rate (6.39 K/9 and 16.0 K%), a bad walk rate (4.87 BB/9 and 12.2 BB%), and a strong ground ball rate (53.6%). Romero’s two and four-seamer both still sit in the low-90s, and he still uses an upper-70s curve against lefties and a low-80s changeup against righties. His location and command have just been awful — he’s not throwing enough strikes, and when he does hit the zone he’s catching too much of the plate. The Yankees hung six runs in six innings against Romero a few weeks ago.

(Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Saturday: RHP Ivan Nova vs. LHP Aaron Laffey
A brief and former Yankee, Laffey has stepped into Toronto’s rotation due to injuries. He owns a 4.39 ERA (4.98 FIP) in eight starts and four relief appearances, though he isn’t striking anyone out — 4.88 K/9 and 13.0 K%. He is doing well in the walk (2.28 BB/9 and 6.1 BB%) and ground ball (49.7%) departments, however. Laffey’s sinking fastball sits in the mid-to-upper-80s, and he backs it up with a low-80s slider, a low-80s changeup, and an upper-70s curveball. These soft-tossing lefties can be tough as the Red Sox have found out (twice) this year.

Sunday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. LHP J.A. Happ
The Jays acquired Happ from the Astros and initially used him out of the bullpen, but injuries forced him into the rotation like Laffey. The 29-year-old has pitched to a 4.98 ERA (4.28 FIP) overall, with an excellent strikeout rate (8.56 K/9 and 21.7 K%) and decent walk (3.50 BB/9 and 8.9 BB%) and ground ball (45.0%) percentages. Happ throws his fastball right around 90, and his array of offspeed weapons includes a low-80s slider, a low-80s changeup, and an upper-70s changeup. The Yankees and their fans right remember him from his two relief appearances in the 2009 World Series.

(Al Messerschmidt/Getty)

Bullpen Status
Toronto’s bullpen looks very different than the one we saw earlier in the year due to trades and injury. Closer Casey Janssen (2.85 FIP) threw 30 pitches in garbage time yesterday, which could help the Yankees tonight. Left-handed setup man Darren Oliver (2.57 FIP) threw 11 pitches yesterday, so he’s good to go. The only other reliever manager John Farrell had to use against the Rays yesterday was funky lefty Aaron Loup (2.03 FIP in limited time), who needed just 19 pitches to record four outs.

The rest of the Blue Jays’ bullpen is in good shape and is entirely right-handed. There’s setup man Brandon Lyon (2.54 FIP), hard-throwing middle man Steve Delabar (4.61 FIP), former fourth overall pick Brad Lincoln (3.50 FIP), and the recently recalled Chad Jenkins (1.75 FIP in three innings). The Yankees are in pretty rough shape bullpen-wise, with Rafael Soriano coming off back-to-back appearances (and a four-out save yesterday) and David Robertson just a day removed from a 35-pitch outing. Other than those two, they should be fine. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for exact details, and check out Drunk Jays Fans and Tao of Stieb for the latest and greatest on the Jays.

Mailbag: Pena, Heathcott, Bleich, September

by 19 Comments

Got four questions for you this week, and they all relate to prospects. Well, minor leaguers. Let’s put it that way. Please use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything at anytime, including mailbag questions.

(Abelimages/Getty Images)

Nick asks: Ramiro Pena. DFA or not DFA?

Yes, Ramiro Pena was designated for assignment last week. However, he remains on the 40-man roster. It’s weird, but this situation comes up once or twice a year around the league. Because he had made his Major League debut more than three calendar years ago, Pena had to clear optional waivers to go to the minors. Those are revocable, so players always clear.

Pena was designated to be sent to the minors, not necessarily to be removed from the 40-man or kicked out of the organization. It’s weird, but it happens. The Athletics designated Jerry Blevins for assignment in this exact situation multiple times last year, prompting The Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan to contact the team about what exactly was going on. Check out this post for more info on the procedure. The Yankees will have to do the same thing if they recall Pena and try to send him back down again later this season, and it’s completely harmless.

Andrew asks: Any chance we see Slade Heathcott start to climb the organizational ladder again anytime soon? I know he’s had a tough time staying healthy, but his bat seems to be fine since his return and he’s even back out in the field.

I think he’ll stay with High-A Tampa through the end of the season, which at this point is about three weeks away. He’s only played the field a handful of times since coming back from the second shoulder surgery, and even counting last season he still has fewer than 175 plate appearances at the level. Slade is hitting extremely well this season with surprising power and a lower than usual strikeout rate, but he pretty much just got there. I’m hoping he continues to perform this way through the end of the season and the Yankees bump him up to Double-A Trenton to start next season. In a perfect world both Heathcott and Mason Williams will be playing center field on an everyday basis in 2013.

(The Trentonian/Jackie Schear)

Steve asks: Could Jeremy Bleich sneak his way on to the roster this off-season, especially if he keeps up his solid return as a reliever? He’s Rule 5 Draft eligible, he throws with his left hand, and besides Boone Logan and Clay Rapada, the only other upper-level lefties are Justin Thomas, Juan Cedeno, and Mike O’Connor, none of which are of value. I could totally see an NL team plucking him and getting good use of him.

Nah, I don’t see it happening. Bleich is coming off the shoulder surgery and is going to finish the season with about 50 innings to his credit, likely none above Double-A. I haven’t heard anything about how his stuff looks post-surgery but it wasn’t anything special when he was healthy anyway. Thomas and O’Connor (and Pedro Feliciano) are goners after the season but I think the Yankees are going to add Cedeno to the 40-man to keep him from becoming a minor league free agent. That means they’ll have him, Logan, and Rapada as lefty specialists going into next year, plus other guys like Josh Romanski and (particularly Francisco Rondon coming up behind them.

I’m not quite sold on Bleich’s ability to stick on a 25-man roster next season — unless he’s come back with mind-blowing stuff, which we surely would have heard about by now — so I would leave him unprotected. If some team takes him and he sticks, so be it. Losing a left-handed reliever isn’t the end of the world, especially one that probably isn’t worth a 40-man roster spot on a contending team just yet.

Howie asks: It’s almost September call-up time. I figure we’ll see a bunch of 40-man guys called up (Ryota Igarashi, Thomas, Adam Warren, Brandon Laird, Eduardo Nunez and Francisco Cervelli seem like no-brainers), but would you expect to see a David Adams or Corban Joseph? What about Dellin Betances after his struggles? Any non-40 man roster guys? Chris Dickerson seems like he deserves it. Would a pitcher like Cedeno or Chase Whitley get the call to soak up innings?

The standings atop the Triple-A International League North Division are very tight at the moment, so Empire State is right in the thick of the playoff hunt. Assuming they stay in the race and qualify for the postseason, we’ll only see the bare minimum call-ups on September 1st. That means a third catcher (Cervelli or Austin Romine? I’d go Frankie so Romine can get regular at-bats in Triple-A), another infielder (Nunez seems obvious, though there’s always Ramiro), and at least two more bullpen arms. Igarashi and Thomas seem likely since they’re already on the 40-man, though Warren is probably better off getting the innings as a starter in the Triple-A playoffs.

Once the Triple-A playoff drive is over, almost everyone will come up. Laird, Warren, Romine/Cervelli, maybe CoJo and Melky Mesa, all those folks. I would be very surprised if they called up Adams even though he’s on the 40-man and they have him working out at third. He seems like a candidate to join the team for workouts but not be activated to the roster. I said before that I think they’ll add Cedeno to the 40-man, but that probably won’t happen until after the season. The 40-man roster is clogged up enough as it is at the moment. Dickerson’s probably the only other non-40-man guy worth a call-up, plus he might actually be useful next season. There aren’t any Rule 5 eligible guys worth calling up early either, the pitchers like Brett Marshall, Nik Turley, and Mike O’Brien aren’t the types of kids you call up in September. They can come hang out with the team and watch from the stands instead.

Tex & Chavez carry Yanks to split in Detroit

by 31 Comments

After losing eight straight agonizing one-run games, it was nice to be on the other side of the ledger for once. The Yankees took the finale of the four-game series with the Tigers on Thursday afternoon, using a late rally and some seriously clutch relief pitching to earn the split. It was their first one-run win since the big comeback off Scott Downs, the very first game after the All-Star break.

(Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Back-to-Back

They say the Yankees can’t hit homers in big ballparks or off good pitchers or in late-inning clutch situations, but they did all of that to win this game. Down 3-2 heading into the eighth against uber-setup man Joaquin Benoit, the Bombers stayed true to their moniker and used a pair of one-out solo homers from Mark Teixeira and Eric Chavez to tie the game and then take the lead. The back-to-back dingers came on consecutive pitches, and Tex’s shot was yanked down the line to right field while Chavez went the other way to left. That was really impressive.

Believe it or not, the homer was Teixeira’s fourth game-tying blast in the seventh inning or later this season. The rest of the Yankees have three. Chavez now has a dozen homers on the year and is on a 33-homer pace across 600 plate appearances, all while hitting a cool .289/.347/.526 on the season. That is in-his-prime type of stuff from the former Athletic. You just can’t say enough about how amazing he’s been this year, stepping up to produce in a big way while helping cover for various injuries. This game had all the look of another disappointing one-run loss, but Teixeira and Chavez came up with some enormous hits.

(Leon Halip/Getty Images)

MFIKY

I’ve never been much of a Rafael Soriano defender, but that was without a doubt his biggest performance of the season and maybe of his Yankees career. Not only did he get a four-out save in a one-run game while pitching for the second straight day, he also pitched around a first-and-third, no outs jam in the ninth by inducing three weak pop-ups. Other than a strikeout, that’s the best possible outcome of an at-bat in that situation. Furthermore, Miguel Cabrera was waiting on deck when the last out was recorded, so the margin of error was as small as it gets. That was a big boy save if I’ve ever seen one, Soriano came up huge.

While we’re at it, we also have to give Clay Rapada and David Phelps some props for their work in the seventh and eighth. Rapada retired the two lefties he faced with a man on second to end the seventh, then Phelps came in to navigate around Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Austin Jackson in the eighth. David Robertson was unavailable after throwing 35 pitches on Wednesday, and Joba Chamberlain was unavailable after throwing 20+ pitches on both Monday and Tuesday. Phelps fell behind Miggy 3-0 but battled back to get him to fly out, and while Fielder singled, he was able to retire A-Jax on a little fly ball to right. That was some serious work by the rookie, bravo.

(Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Ump Show

The umpiring crew was legit bad in this one. Third base ump Tim Welke initially called a ball that landed directly on the line foul before changing his mind and signaling fair, though it’s unclear if that actually impacted Raul Ibanez’s pursuit of the ball. Either way, Welke jumped the gun on the call and made a mess of things. Joe Girardi came out to argue, got tossed, and apparently tried to protest the game. First base ump Tony Randazzo also blew a call on an Omar Infante infield single — replays showed he was out by half-a-step if not more. That didn’t lead to any scoring, however. And, of course, home plate ump Todd Tichenor had a goofy strike zone. Unfortunately this is just par for the course these days.

#HIROK

The final pitching line isn’t anything special — 6.1 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 7/5 GB/FB — but Hiroki Kuroda made basically one bad pitch all afternoon, and that was the pitch Alex Avila hit for the game-tying two-run homer in the fifth. Other than that, he got infield singled and blooped and dunked to death. It was ugly as all hell, but Kuroda still managed to turn in a quality start, his 11th in his last 14 starts. The dinger by Avila was the first Hiroki has surrendered in four starts.

(Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Leftovers

The Yankees scored their first two runs with two outs in the second inning, when Ibanez tripled (!) in Chavez and Ichiro Suzuki singled in Ibanez. The old guys were getting it done early. Ichiro also drew his first walk as a Yankee in this game, his 16th since the trade.

The bottom five hitters in the order went a combined 7-for-18 (.389) with two doubles, a triple, and a homer. The top four hitters didn’t do much of anything — 3-for-18 (.167) — outside of Teixeira’s homer, but sometimes the guys on the bottom have to pick the big bats up.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings

Now that is a fun graph, as long as you’re pulling for the team is on the bottom. MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs the advanced stats, and ESPN the updated standings. The Rays won and the Orioles lost, so both clubs are now six games back of the Yankees in the loss column in the AL East race.


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next

The Yankees are taking a short trip up to Toronto and will open a three-game weekend series against the Blue Jays on Friday night. Freddy Garcia will be opposed by southpaw Ricky Romero.

Austin & Sanchez homer in Tampa win

by 26 Comments

The Yankees have signed 24-year-old RHP Zach Woods out of an independent league. He has decent numbers this year to go along with a four-pitch mix and a fastball that reportedly touches 94. This is the time of year when clubs will reel in some indy ballers and hope one of them provides some useful of big league innings down the line. Most don’t.

Triple-A Empire State (5-2 loss to Rochester)
CF Chris Dickerson: 2-3, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K — 14 hits in his last 32 at-bats (.438) with three doubles and two homers
2B Corban Joseph: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K — he’s been slumping pretty hard of late, good to see him get off the schneid a bit
SS Eduardo Nunez & LF Ronnie Mustelier: both 1-4 — Nunez struck out once, Mustelier twice
C Austin Romine & CF Melky Mesa: both 0-3 — Romine struck out once, Mesa twice
1B Kosuke Fukudome: 1-4, 1 K
RF Darnell McDonald: 1-3, 1 BB
3B Ramiro Pena: 0-4
RHP John Maine: 5 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 7/3 GB/FB — 72 of 102 pitches were strikes (71%)
RHP Chase Whitley: 1 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 0/1 GB/FB — ten pitches, seven strikes
LHP Lee Hyde: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 0/1 GB/FB — only eight of 18 pitches were strikes (44%)
RHP Manny Delcarmen: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 0/1 GB/FB — ten of 14 pitches were strikes

[Read more…]

Thursday Night Open Thread

by 96 Comments

That was a big boy save this afternoon. (REUTERS/Rebecca Cook)

Holy cow, that had to be the most annoying series of the season. The Tigers got every infield single, blooped every double, and were standing in the way of every line drive. They got almost all the breaks and the Yankees still walked away with the split, and they had the tying and go-ahead runs in the scoring position in one of the two losses. It was painful, but all in all it’s tough to be disappointed with the result of these four games considering how they played.

Anyways, here is your open thread for the night. The baseball schedule is light this evening, but MLB Network will broadcast a game and most of you will see the Red Sox at the Indians (Doubront vs. Jimenez). ESPN is also airing a preseason NFL game a little later, so hooray for that. Talk about whatever you like here, the thread is yours.

* * *

Just as reminder, remember to follow us on Twitter at @RiverAveBlues if you don’t already. We often post little tidbits and links there that do not appear on the site, so don’t miss out.

Perhaps the greatest John Sterling call in history

by 96 Comments

If you’re wondering why I frequently complain about John Sterling’s game calling, this is perhaps the most illustrative example I’ve ever encountered. Please excuse the presence of Craig Carton.

Carton ends by saying that the Yankees should employ Sterling and Waldman for life, because they bring something to the game that other broadcast teams cannot. Call me a stick in the mud if you will, but when I’m stuck with a radio broadcast I’d appreciate an accurate description of the game.

By the way, this is a shot of McGehee’s hit. Just for reference.

MLB releases 2012 playoff schedule

by 28 Comments

We already knew that the 2012 playoff schedule wasn’t going to be pretty. MLB took its sweet time to decide on a new playoff format, and then decided to institute it this year instead of next. Worse, they made the decision after the TV networks had set their schedules, so they had to work around those limitations. The most significant consequence: the lower-seeded team gets to start at home in a 2-3 style LDS. It’s hard to call it home field advantage if you’re going home down 0-2.

Given the pre-existing TV schedule, and given the need to account for possible tiebreaker games, we’re left with an odd setup for the first round. Here’s a quick rundown of how it will unfold.

October 3: Last games of regular season.

October 4: Potential tie breaking games. (More on tie breakers later.)

October 5: Wild Card Games.

October 6: LDS begin. This will be the No. 2 seed vs. the No. 3 seed in both leagues.

October 7: LDS Game 1 for the No. 1 seed and the Wild Card Game Winner.

October 11: Potential Game 5 for No. 2 vs. No. 3 series.

October 12: Potential Game 5 for No. 1 vs. No. 4 series.

October 13: ALCS Game 1.

Here’s how it could go for the No. 1 seed. They play a game on October 3, and then get three days off. That’s good, as they can rest and line up their rotations. That’s bad, though, because any player will tell you that they don’t like all that time off. They want to play games.

The 2-3 format is to blame for this. If the idea is to handicap the Wild Card — and that’s pretty clearly the intention with this format — there should be no day off for them between the play-in game and Game 1 of the LDS. The No. 1 seed should get to sit at home and await the winner in a 2-2-1 format. That way the No. 1 seed takes only two days off and gets, ideally, the opponent’s No. 2 or No. 3 pitcher. (Though I suppose the Wild Card winner could throw their No. 1, depending on how the regular season unfolds.)

And then, because of the TV schedule, the No. 1 seed could go directly from a Game 5 of the LDS to Game 1 of the LCS. They’ll stay at home, so that’s something of an advantage. But it’d probably be nice to get a single day off between series. But hey, if they’d rather play every day then maybe it’s not such a big deal.

It might be that the No. 3 seed has the best position here, at least in the early goings. They get to jump into the LDS after just two days off, and they start at home. Win the first two at home and then you need to win just one in a three-game series on the road. And they still have a chance at home field in the LCS, if the Wild Card beats the No. 1 seed.

Tiebreakers. Here’s the deal with tiebreakers. In previous years if two teams tied for the division, but both would make the playoffs given the Wild Card, there would be no tie breaking game. They’d use head-to-head and other tie breaking factors to determine who wins the division and who gets the Wild Card. This year, given the importance of winning the division, there is a tie-breaking game at stake when teams tie for the division lead, even if both teams would be in the postseason otherwise. Head-to-head record will determine who gets home field for this game.

And, of course, there will be tie-breaking games for teams tied for Wild Card spots if more than two teams qualify. That is, there clearly won’t be a tiebreaker if two teams tie for the Wild Card spot. They’ll just use the tie-breaking formula and those two teams will have the normal play-in game. But if two teams are tied for the second Wild Card, they have to duke it out, with the winner going on to play the first Wild Card the next day. Four teams tied for Wild Card spotswill ensure mayhem.

In future years these kinks won’t exist. TV networks will base their coverage around the current playoff format. But this year the No. 1 seed has plenty going against it. Call me old fashioned, but I don’t think that’s any way to reward the team that won the 162-game marathon. But this is the hand MLB forced this year.

This is only one way of interpreting the format. I’m interested to see others add their thoughts as to how MLB laid it out this year.