2010 Draft: MLB announces draft coverage

Via Conor Glassey, MLB has announced it’s official plans for coverage of the 2010 Draft. The event will again span three days, from Monday June 7th to Wednesday the 9th, though Day One will only feature the first and supplemental rounds. Day Two will run through round 30, and Day Three will wrap up the remaining 50 rounds. MLB Network will air a draft preview show at 6pm ET on Day One before broadcasting the draft when it starts an hour later. Days Two and Three will not be broadcast on television, but the conference call audio will be available online as always.

Unlike last year, the Yankees are off during Day One of the draft, so we can actually devote our full attention to it.

Record low attendance at last night’s game

Via Ross, last night’s game against the Orioles was seen by just 41,571 fans, a record low for the New Stadium. The rain earlier in the day probably had a little to do with it, and I can’t imagine many Orioles’ fans made the trip up to see their 7-19 club either. The previous low was set last April, when just 42,065 fans watched the Yanks beat the A’s.

Ticket sales for the 2010 season are ahead of last year’s pace, so last night’s game was probably just a blip on the radar.

The unnecessariness of a 12-man bullpen

Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP

Before the Yankees called up Greg Golson this afternoon they boasted a 13-man pitching staff. Granted, it was in reaction to a free roster spot and a slightly short bullpen, but that doesn’t make it any more necessary. The staff is now down to 12 men, but even that seems like a bit much when considering the Yanks’ starters. While I understood the necessity of a 12-man bullpen through the mid-00s, I just don’t get why they’re doing it this year.

The staff has pitched 217 innings this year, 158 of which have been handled by the starters. That’s good for fourth in the AL, though the Yankees have played fewer games than most of the teams surrounding them. They also had that rain shortened game, which deprived them of up to three starter innings. The staff ERA sits at 3.36, third best in the AL. These stats also include Javy Vazquez, which further illustrates just how dominant CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes have been this year.

Unsurprisingly, Yankee relievers have pitched the fewest innings in the AL. Even further to the point, the Yanks have seen CC Sabathia negate the need for the bullpen in two games, so the bullpen innings per game drops even further. In the Yankees 25 games the bullpen has thrown 59 innings, just over 2.1 innings per game. This means that the late-inning relievers, Joba Chamberlain most prominently, eat up most of the remaining innings. He leads the team with 12 appearances.

One of Joe Girardi‘s strengths is his ability to spread the work among all the pitchers in his bullpen. Yet with the team’s starters pitching out of their minds, he’s had few chances to deploy many of his bullpen weapons. David Robertson, for instance, has alternately struggled and thrived this season, but he’s never gotten a real chance to get into a groove. He has lasted just 5.2 innings in eight appearances. With more consistent work perhaps his results would start to reflect his excellent peripherals: 8 K and 2 BB.

This might seem like a good problem to have, and for the most part that is the case. I’ve long said that the best way to build an effective bullpen is to assemble a top-flight starting staff, and the Yankees have done just that. In fact, it makes me further wonder what this situation would look like if Vazquez had some semblance of a fastball. Would Sergio Mitre have ever gotten into a game? He’d have maybe an inning or two in a Yanks blowout, but not much more than that.

Might the Yankees be better off carrying just 11 pitchers? The 12th pitcher is, in essence, an insurance guy. He’s there in case the starter flops. The Yankees starters, though, haven’t been known for flops. Javy accounts for almost all of the rotation’s poor performances, meaning Mitre is only necessary on those days. If Javy ends up pitching well, he might not even be needed then. True, one of the top four is likely to throw a stinker at some point, but Al Aceves can cover multiple innings if necessary.

For now, we likely won’t see the Yankees stray from their 12-man staff. This is not only because it has become standard operating procedure to carry 12 pitchers, but also because the added spot on the bench doesn’t seem necessary. Does having Greg Golson or Kevin Russo on the bench present a more valuable option for the Yanks than a 12th pitcher? At this point probably not. Later in the season, however, perhaps the Yankees can use that flexibility to pick up a bat off the bench and eschew the 12th pitcher. Hell, if the Braves continue to founder maybe they can even get back Eric Hinske.

Because the team doesn’t have much need for a 12th pitcher, and because it has even less a need for a long man in non-Javy starts, maybe Girardi will start trying Mitre as a short reliever. He’s not going to sustain his current hit rate, just 2.1 hits per nine, but with consistent work maybe he can prove a serviceable part of the bridge to Mo. If Girardi keeps Mitre and Aceves on different schedules he can then keep one free for long man duty if need be. That ability increases even more once Chan Ho Park returns.

The Yankees essentially have a free 25th roster spot. They don’t need it for a 12th pitcher, and they don’t really need another player to hit off the bench. It does allow them flexibility, something Cashman has preached for years. At this point, though, it seems more like a dormant spot that is waiting for a need to arise. We haven’t quite seen one yet, and considering how well this first month has gone I think I’d be fine if one never did.

The two sides of making contact

Over the winter we showed that it was essential for pitchers to strike batters out if they want to be successful long-term, but that batters could get away with high strikeout rates because they could make up for it in other ways. A pitcher with a low strikeout rate is at the mercy of his defense and the BABIP gods, while hitters with high strikeout rates can hit the ball with power and get on base in exchange. None of us like watching a Yankee strike out, but it happens.

At the root of strikeout rates are contact rates. The more contact a hitter makes, the less they’ll strike out. It’s that simple. For some batters, the speedy guys that can’t threaten a pitcher with power, it’s imperative to put the ball in play to make stuff happen. For others, the kinds of players that trade strikeouts for extra base hits, the need to make consistent contact is a bit more relaxed.

Photo Credit: Gail Burton, AP

One of the surprises in the first month of the season has been Brett Gardner, who woke up this morning sporting a .415 wOBA and eleven steals, good for second in all the land. The reason Gardner has been so successful is simple: he’s putting the ball in play on the ground more than he ever has before, and is using his top of the line speed to turn bouncers into hits. We all saw that game against the Rangers a few weeks ago when he beat out three infield hits and nearly a fourth. It’s not something Yankee fans are used to.

Despite that moonshot off Mark Buehrle, Gardner’s not ever going to hit for power and needs to play the slash-and-dash game. His minor league career featured a particularly high 19.8 K%, but he made up for it by hitting ground balls 55% of the time and taking advantage of neophyte minor league defenders. Gardner continued to strike out once he got the big leagues (23.6% in 2008, 16.1% in 2009), but he wasn’t hitting the ball on the ground as frequently (47.9% in ’08, 49% in ’09). You can see the slight upward trend, and that’s something that has continued into this season.

Through 25 games, Gardner has struck out in just 12% of his at-bats and put the ball on the ground 56.9% of the time. He’s not striking out as much because he’s simply making much more contact. Believe it or not, Gardner has yet to swing and miss at the pitch in the strike zone this season, and he’s the only player in the game that can make that claim. Marco Scutaro is second in baseball with a 99.1% contact rate in the zone. If the ball was over the plate and Gardner hacked at it, he’s gotten at least a piece of the ball every single time. His overall contact rate is 91.7% (73.5% contact rate on pitches out of the zone), which is tied with Ichiro for the tenth best in the game. A player like Gardner can’t make up for strikeouts by hitting for power, so he needs to slap the ball around the infield to be successful. So far this year, he’s done exactly that.

Photo Credit: Nick Wass, AP

On the other side of the coin you have Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod is off to a slow (.334 wOBA) start even though he’s made more contact than he ever has before. After making contact on about 75% of his swings from 2002-2009, Alex is up to 86.5% this year thanks to a 97.5% contact rate on pitches in the zone, well above the ~83% he posted from ’02-’09. It’s not like he swinging at more pitches either, actually quite the opposite. A-Rod offered at close to 44% of the pitches he saw from ’02-’09, but this year that’s down to 40.9%.

For a guy like Alex, you’d think the more contact the better because of what usually happens when he connects with a pitch. However, his batted ball rates are a little off kilter this season, particularly his line drive (17.3% in ’10 vs. 18.2% career) and fly ball (37% in ’10 vs. 40% career) percentages. The more balls he sends to the outfield, the better. Those LD and FB decreases have resulted in more ground balls (45.7% in ’10 vs. 41.8% career), and Alex isn’t a speedy guy like Gardner, who thrives on that stuff.

Is it possible A-Rod is making too much contact? He’s offering at a few more pitches off the plate than he usually does (22.7% in ’10 vs. 20.5% career), but because he’s putting the bat on the ball more than usual, it’s resulting in more weak contact. That would explain the uptick in groundballs. It might also have something to do with his newfound knee issue: perhaps it’s preventing him from really driving through the ball with his lower half. Either way, A-Rod’s not going to maintain a 6.7% HR/FB rate all year (23.4% career), and at some point (hopefully soon) he’ll go on a Mike Stanton-esque binge and club ten homers in ten games.

So far this year we’ve seen two Yankees making a whole lot of contact with the ball at the plate, but they’ve gotten different results. Their vastly different skill sets are the primary reason why it’s working for Gardner and not A-Rod, but there’s no cause for concern. Brett the Jet can keep it up for as long as he wants, and Alex is too talented to hit .258-.336-.430 over 162 games.

Yankees recall Golson, option Melancon

Update (6:01pm): Melancon has indeed been sent to Triple-A.

12:46pm: Via Donnie Collins, the Yankees are expected to call up outfielder Greg Golson (who is already in New York) today to replace the injured Curtis Granderson. Mark Melancon will likely be the 25-man roster casualty following Sunday’s two inning, 27-pitch outing. Golson’s call up is an unsurprising move not just because we heard it was coming over the weekend, but because the Yanks don’t have another true centerfielder on their roster beyond Brett Gardner.

The 24-year-old Golson is crazy fast and a defensive whiz, but he’s not much with the stick. In 21 Triple-A games this season, he’s hitting .253-.289-.430 with twelve strikeouts, four steals, and just three walks. He won’t be used for much more than pinch running and late-game defense.

Link Dump: Javy, Cano, Romine, Draft

We have links, and not the sucky kind either…

What’s wrong with Javy Vazquez?

It’s the question everyone’s trying to answer these days, though there’s only one guy who can truly answer it. That’s not going to stop us, though. Tommy Rancel at Bloomberg Sports looked at the numbers, and while there’s definitely some unsustainably high rate stats working against Vazquez (3.13 HR/9 (!!!)) so far, the root of the problem might be his fastball. Not so much that the lost velocity means he’s afraid to throw it, but that the lost velocity has closed the gap between his heater and changeup. Instead of one pitching losing effectiveness, it’s two pitches.

Also, make sure you check out this Baseball Prospectus piece by Jay Jaffe’s mustache on the same topic (subs. req’d). He notes that Javy’s strikeout rate drops with men on base, which is bad news for a fly ball pitcher. The Yanks are skipping their Opening Day fourth starter this turn through the rotation, so hopefully he can iron some things out during the break.

Is Cano’s hot start for real?

Well, it’s hard to imagine Robbie Cano maintaining his current production over the remaining 137 games, he is on a 58 homer pace after all. Dougbies at Beyond The Box Score went deeper into Cano’s start, and while the Yanks’ second baseman has certainly enjoyed some good luck early on, none of it is out of world insane like Austin Jackson’s BABIP (up to .532!). Long story short, Cano is legitimately having the best season of his already very good career, which really isn’t all that uncommon for a player in his age-27 season.

Love for Austin Romine

While Jesus Montero has scuffled a bit in his first 100 Triple-A plate appearances or so, the Yanks’ other elite catching prospect has been hitting the snot out of the ball in Double-A. Romine is up to .351-.429-.554 (.418 wOBA) following last night’s 2-for-5 effort. In his Daily Futures piece at ESPN (Insider req’d), Kevin Goldstein mentions that Romine is probably the Yanks’ catcher of the future, because “his overall tools are well above-average for a backstop and scouts project him as an above-average defender down the line.”

It’s great to see him off to such a fast start, but the key is for Romine to maintain it all season. Catching is a grueling job, and this is the first time in his career he’ll be a full-time starting catcher from wire-to-wire.

Top draft picks by round

In the latest Ask BA, Jim Callis digs through the first 25 rounds of every draft over the last five years to find which player was the best pick in that round. Unsurprisingly, Tim Lincecum took the 1st round honors, but three Yankees’ picks joined him on the list: Joba Chamberlain (sandwich round), Austin Jackson (8th round), and Graham Stoneburner (14th round). The Yanks have done a nice job of turning late round picks into useful players, even if they’re just relievers like David Robertson (17th), Phil Coke (26th), and Mike Dunn (33rd). Those guys developed into far more than what their round usually produces.

Johnson still trying to find a groove

Photo credit: Kathy Willens/AP

Despite his early struggles, Nick Johnson remains an on-base machine. He hasn’t fared well on balls in play, as just nine of 44 have dropped in for hits. That amounts to a .182 BABIP, an unsustainably low mark. That’s part of the good news. The bad news is that while his BABIP projects much higher, it appears as though he’ll have to make a few adjustments in order to recover. There appears to be a bit more at play than mere bad luck on balls in play.

From 2001 through 2006 Johnson put the ball in play in 62 percent of his plate appearances. He then missed all of 2007 and most of 2008. When he came back in 2009 he put the ball in play 64 percent of the time. This season he has managed to make fair contact in just 48 percent of his plate appearances. He’s putting many of those in the air, 19 fly balls to 16 ground balls and 10 line drives. Two of those 19 have been infield pop ups. Previously in his career Johnson has put more balls on the ground.

On batted ball types, though, we have a pretty small sample. Again, he’s put the ball in play just 44 times in 91 PA. What does he do the rest of the time? Walk and strike out. Both rates are at the highest they’ve ever been in his career. In 24.2 percent of his plate appearances Johnson has drawn a walk, a mark that has helped him avoid making outs while slumping. If Mark Teixeira didn’t slump throughout April and Alex Rodriguez wasn’t going through a mini slump himself, perhaps Johnson would have scored more than 10 runs so far.

His strikeout rate presents a bit of a concern. It sits at 32.8 percent*, the highest mark in the AL. He hasn’t been within 10 percent of that mark since 2004. What strikes me here isn’t the high strikeout rate so much as the breakdown. Of his 22 strikeouts, 15 have been looking. It’s not as if he’s overmatched and can’t get his bat around, or else is fooled by the pitcher. He’s just being extremely selective with two strikes and is paying the price. The latter seems more correctable, so that’s a positive sign. Still, he’s not helping the team by looking at so many strike threes.

*Note: FanGraphs bases K% on AB and BB% on PA. Not sure why, but that’s what I’m working with right now.

Looking at his swing data, we see more troubling signs. He has seen fewer pitches in the zone than at any point in his career, which shows up in his walk rate. Yet his walk rate could actually be higher. He has swung at 18.9 percent of pitches outside the zone, again a high water mark for his career. He’s making contact with these pitches at an unprecedented rate as well, which usually translates to bad contact. That likely factors into his BABIP. He’s swinging at fewer pitches inside the zone, too, though he’s making excellent contact when he does swing at those. Finally, he’s seen by far more first-pitch strikes this year, so perhaps pitchers are taking advantage of his selective nature. He’s either seen an 0-1 count or put the ball in play in 53 of his 91 PA.

It’s tough to put this all together, since there’s so much going on. He’s seeing more strikes than ever before, but is swinging at fewer of them, leading to a high strikeout rate based on strike threes looking. He’s chasing more pitches outside the zone and making more contact on them, which in all likelihood leads to bad outcomes. I’m willing to bet that his slightly increased fly ball rate results from the out-of-zone swinging. His saving grace is that he’s taking walks and therefore not making outs as frequently as others hitting under .200. He ranks 29th in the AL in OBP, and has the lowest average among the top 35 by more than .100.

We can look at Johnson’s BABIP and say he’s due for a correction, and in a way that’s true. In this case, however, there are many more factors to consider. Kevin Long talked about helping Johnson make adjustments, especially on the inside pitch. Is Johnson just taking time to get into a groove? Or is there something going on that just doesn’t work for him? He’s getting on base enough to justify a spot in the lineup, so perhaps he’ll settle in and work things out. Perhaps a move downward wouldn’t be the worst idea at this point.