Sorry for the short thread, but it’s been a busy day. The Giants and Cardinals are playing NLCS Game Three (Vogelsong vs. Carpenter, 7:30pm ET on FOX) and the late NFL game is the Steelers at the Bengals. Talk about whatever you like here (except politics). Go nuts.
Fujikawa will come over to MLB this winter
Via NPB Tracker: Right-handed reliever Kyuji Fujikawa will look to join an MLB this club as a true free agent this offseason. The long-time Hanshin Tigers closer will be represented by Arn Tellem, who also represented Hideki Matsui, Mike Mussina, and Jason Giambi.
Fujikawa, 32, has been the most dominant reliever in Japan for the last decade or so. He’s pitched to sub-1.50 ERA in six of the last eight years with a strikeout rate well north of 12.0 per nine. Last offseason I linked to a scouting report that says he runs his fastball up to 94 with a put-away splitter. Here’s more from Amazin’ Avenue and here’s some video. The Yankees figure to be in the market for a reliever this offseason, especially if Rafael Soriano opts out, so here’s another name just to keep in the back of your mind. The history with Tellem can only be considered a positive.
Breaking even on an A-Rod trade
The other day, nearly half of RAB readers said they believe the Yankees will manage to trade Alex Rodriguez this offseason. Where and for who is another matter entirely, but we can all agree that the club will have to eat some portion of the $114M left on his contract to facilitate a trade. How much of that do they need to eat for the deal to make sense? I have no idea, but Eno Sarris ran through the numbers at FanGraphs.
Using various projections and aging curves, Eno comes up with a number around $80M (in either cash paid out or bad contracts coming back). I think the projections used were a little optimistic, but we’ll roll with them. That $80M number assumes the Yankees will be able to replace A-Rod’s production internally, with David Adams or Corban Joseph or Jayson Nix or whoever. That’s a big unknown here, the replacement. We also shouldn’t discount the intangibles — will moving A-Rod help or hurt the clubhouse culture? — as well as his marquee value. We have absolutely no way of addressing those last two points so don’t even try. On the field though, eating $80M of that $114M to send A-Rod elsewhere is the (theoretical) break-even point.
2012 Yankees Injury Data
It’s no secret that the Yankees lost a ton of players to injuries in 2012, ranging from short-term bumps and bruises (CC Sabathia’s groin strain) to medium-term ailments (Andy Pettitte’s fractured leg) to long-term, potentially career-altering injuries (Michael Pineda’s torn labrum). Jeff Zimmerman recently released injury data for the season, and all told the Yankees lost 1,753 days due to injury. If that sounds like a lot, it is. Only the Padres (1,883) lost more time to injury. The Mariners were baseball’s healthiest team in 2012 at only 452 days lost to injury.
The chart above shows average time lost to injury over the last three years, and you can see that the Yankees tend to lose more time than any other club. Now part of that is skewed by Pedro Feliciano, who didn’t pitch at all in the last two seasons, but an injury is an injury. On the other side of the coin, no team has done a better job of keeping its players healthy than the White Sox. That’s not an accident — Chicago’s south-siders have long been considered to have the best training staff in the game and it shows in the injury data.
Obviously some percentage of keeping players healthy is pure luck — you can do everything right and a player may still get hurt, it happens — but not all of it. The Yankees do have an older roster and while older players may not necessarily get hurt more often than younger players, they do tend to take longer to recover. Some of the injury blame likely falls on the training staff as well, especially with regards to pitching. The Yankees have been just awful at keeping pitchers healthy in recent years, both young and old. Health is a skill and these days it’s not just about having the best players, but keeping them on the field as well. The Yankees need to figure out how to cut down on the injuries going forward.
Cashman says he’s not planning to trade A-Rod
Via Jon Heyman: Brian Cashman says that he has no plans to try to trade Alex Rodriguez this offseason despite talk to the contrary. “He’s our third baseman … I’m going to focus on other areas,” said the GM before flatly saying he is not planning to discuss any deals involving A-Rod. Cashman denied having trade talks with the Marlins the other day.
This will be the offseason script, so be prepared. We’ll hear that the Yankees are talking to some team about A-Rod, then Cashman will deny it. Rinse, repeat. Even if they are having talks, he’ll still deny it. The only time the team will acknowledge that trade talks have occurred is when they send out a press release announcing a trade, if it ever happens. The Yankees tend to do things — especially major moves — very quietly and for good reason.
Saturday Night Open Thread
Well, if you were hoping the Yankees would trade Alex Rodriguez to the Marlins for Heath Bell, you can forget it now. Miami traded Bell to the Diamondbacks today as part of a three-team trade that sent Chris Young to the Athletics, Cliff Pennington to Arizona, and a prospect to the Marlins. Young definitely would have made sense for the Yankees as a right-handed hitter with power and speed who can play a legitimate center field, but alas. I have to think the likelihood of a Justin Upton trade just went down, but I suppose Seth Smith or Josh Reddick may be available now.
Anyway, here is your open thread for the night. There’s no baseball being played — the Giants and Cardinals are traveling to San Francisco and will continue the NLCS tomorrow. There is college football on though, so talk about that or any non-politics topic here. Enjoy.
Update: Sabathia will have elbow checked out this week
Saturday: Via Jon Heyman: Sabathia will see Dr. James Andrews later this week. The ligament in his elbow is said to be fine, but it’s believed that there’s a bone spur which will need to be cleaned up. Heyman says it wouldn’t put in him danger of missing time next season. Fingers crossed until the Doc looks at him.
Friday: Via Marc Carig: The Yankees will take another look at CC Sabathia’s left elbow now that the season is over. “Let’s put it this way, we’re going to look at that elbow, no doubt about it,” said Brian Cashman. “That will be on the list of things we have to look at now that the offseason’s here. Whether he wants to or not, we’re going to go look into this thing and make sure everything’s okay.”
Sabathia spent two weeks on the DL with elbow stiffness at midseason and struggled initially after his return, but he pitched extremely well late in the season and in the ALDS before getting rocked in ALCS Game Four last night. The left-hander told reporters that the elbow “felt good enough to pitch” yesterday, perhaps indicating that he wasn’t 100%. Then again, no one is this time of year.