While everyone is salivating over the thought of Mark Teixeira in pinstripes, I don’t think the Yanks are going to make a big trade this July 31st. They aren’t going to trade one of their blue-chip young pitchers, and they get back a pitcher from the DL – Phil Hughes – who is better than anyone available via a trade. The Yanks’ offense doesn’t need help; the pitching has been solid lately. Maybe we’ll see a bullpen move, but nothing major.
As the Yanks stand now, they’ve scored a whopping 555 runs, second only to the Tigers, and have allowed 443. Their +112 run differential, second overall in the Majors, is just one worse than the Red Sox’s +113. Based on their Pythagorean Record, the Yanks should be 60-38. Instead, they’re 52-46, a whopping eight games worse than expected. That Pythagoras is a real bitch, no?
As the Yanks have gone 10-3 since the All Star Break, they’ve emerged as a good team, and it’s in this run differential that we can see why the Yanks have a great shot at the playoffs. Let’s look at the contenders. The Red Sox and Tigers are legitimate playoff teams. Great offenses and great pitching will deliver an October berth. The Angels will probably make it because someone needs to win the West.
So that leaves us with the Indians, Mariners, Yankees and Twins as the only other AL teams over .500. The Mariners are playing through smoke and mirrors. They’ve scored 467 and have given up 464. They are outplaying their 48-48 record. The 2007 Mariners are better than recent Mariners’ teams, but I wouldn’t peg them much above 85 wins.
The Twins have a run differential of +40 but a record putting them just 2 games above .500. Like the Yanks, they are underperforming this season. I think they’ll end up with 87-89 wins.
The Indians are outperforming their record. They’ve given up 528 runs and have scored 472. They should be 55-44 but are instead 58-41. They lead the Mariners by 2.5 and the Yankees by 5.5. Based on numbers alone, the Yanks’ and Indians’ roles should be reversed with the Yanks 5.5 games up on the Indians instead of the other way around.
And that’s why I’m growing more and more confident each day that the Yanks can make an exciting run toward October. They have the offense; they have the pitching. Now, it’s just a matter of overcoming eight games of bad luck and poor bullpen management.
The Yanks are 8-15 in one-run games. Better relief management would have given them a few more wins there. Even going 11-12 in one-run games would put them in the thick of both the Wild Card hunt and the AL East race, and right now, that’s where this team is heading. But can they overcome that eight game difference? That’ll be the real question as we had down the stretch.
Lots of prospects on the move yesterday, as Ed Price of The Star-Ledger reported.
The Yanks sent the struggling duo of Chase Wright and Tyler Clippard back down to AA Trenton. Neither had been pitching well at AAA after struggling in the Bronx earlier this season. They’ll both have to overcome a bit of adversity to come back to the Bigs. I think Clippard’s best use right now is a trade chip.
But more important were the call ups. Both Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy, two young hurlers who started the season at A ball, were sent up to Scranton to fill those two roster spots. Are the Yanks eying September call ups for one or both? Will Joba really be tagged for a bullpen spot in the Bronx in a few weeks?
Only time will tell, but this is an exciting time for the two best arms outside of Phil Hughes (and possibly the injured Humberto Sanchez) in the Yankee organization. The right players on the way up.
Meanwhile, in other news, Steven Jackson is headed from AAA to AA, Kevin Whelan from A to AA, and Brett Smith, who’s been pretty decent, is heading to A from AA. Big moves all around.
The Yanks win. No one else does. Demotion news to follow. Again, courtesy of Mr. Hirsch:
Scranton Rained Out (Note by Ben: This was supposed to be a Phil Hughes rehab start. He’ll go today instead. Last night’s YES broadcast and recent comments by Brian Cashman make it sound as though Hughes will be slotted into Kei Igawa’s spot as soon as he’s ready. That’s fantastic news.)
Tampa (Clearwater def Tampa 7-1)
Reggie Corona 0-4, 2 throwing errors
Austin Jackson 1-3, R, K
Jose Tabata 1-4
Tim Battle 2-3, R
Francisco Cervelli 1-3, 2B, K
Kevin Russo 0-3
Marcos Veccionacchi 0-4
Mike Martinez 4 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 1 K. Ran out of starters with all the doubleheaders
Zach Kroenke 3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 K
Charleston (Ashville def Charleston 6-1)
Mitch Hilligoss 0-4
Seth Fortenberry 2-4, 2K
Josue Calzado 1-4, 2B
Joseph Muich 2-4, HR
Grant Duff 4.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 5 K, HR
Staten Island Scheduled day off
GCL Yanks (GCL Indians def GCL Yanks 10-6)
Phrylis Cuello 0-5
Zolio Almonte 3-5, K
Brandon Laird 2-5, R
Jesus Montero (C) 2-3, R, BB, Not a great game behind the plate with a passed ball, and one stolen base against him.
Andres Perez 2-4, R, BB
Kelvin Castro 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI
Gerardo Rodriquez 1-3, HR, 3 RBI
Kelvin Perez 3.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Dickson Marquez 4 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
The Indians, whose 34 home wins puts them second in the Majors, host the Red Sox this week while the Yanks are playing the red-hot Kansas City Royals. The Yanks need to keep on winning (obviously), but it’s always a conundrum when two teams holding down playoff spots face off. Which team should root for? Well, in this case, I have to say the Indians. If the Yanks can take 3 out of 4 from the Royals, and the Indians can take 3 out of 4 from the Red Sox, the Yanks would stay 6.5 games back in the Wild Card and move 5.5 games behind Boston. But if not, as long as the Yanks win, they’ll gain ground on some team in front of them this week. · (13) ·
Apparently, A-Rod and C-Rod are looking to buy a $25-million house in Greenwich, Connecticut. That may mean he’s staying in New York past this season. Or not. Who knows? For those of you struggling to pay rent in NYC, that $25 million isn’t even one full year of on-field salary for Mr. Rodriguez. · (0) ·
The Yanks, yesterday, inked discarded reliever Scott Williamson to a Minor League contract. Williamson, formerly with the Orioles, was hurt for much of the season. In just 14.1 appearances spanning 16 games, he had allowed 12 hits while striking out 16 and walking 8. His ERA on the season stands at 4.40. I have to wonder if this deal is another sign that Kyle Farnsworth’s time on the Yanks is limited. The Yanks have demoted him, thanksfully, from the 8th inning role and have numerous arms to replace his in the pen. · (5) ·
Another day, another no-hitter for the Baby Bombers. Tampa had a 7 inning no hitter as the rehabbing Jose Veras and Dan McCutchen combined for the no no. Ian Kennedy had a strong game going 5 with 3 hits and 2 runs. AJax continues to hit as he had a double in the first game and his 7th home run in the second game.
Scranton (def Charlotte 7-2)
Brett Gardener 2-5, 2 R
Kevin Reese 2-3, HR (Grand Slam), R, 5 RBI
Raul Chavez 2-4, 2 R. Can hear Will Nieves footsteps.
Jeff Karstens 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K One more scheduled start before he gets the recall.
Trenton (7-2 def New Britain)
Juan Miranda 2-5, 2B, R, 3 RBI
Alberto Gonzalez 3-4, 2B, R, 3 RBI
PJ Pilitiere 2-5
Gabriel Lopez 2-3, 2 R
Ian Kennedy 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. Good to see Mini-Moose pitch again. He hasnâ€™t pitched since July 12. His last run was the result of a pop up/SF in which the third basemen and SS collided in foul territory.
Tampa (def Lakeland 4-0) Game 1 (7 innings) No Hitter
Austin Jackson 1-4 2B
Jose Tabata 0-4
Tim Battle 2-3, R
Francisco Cervelli 1-3
Kevin Russo 2-3, 2B
Marcos Veccionacchi 1-3, HR, R, 2 RBI Surprisingly this is Vecciâ€™s 1st home run of the year.
Jose Veras 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K
Daniel McCutchen 5 IP, 0 H, 5 BB, 2 K McCutchen has an 11-2 record. Add him to the A list.
Tampa (def 4-3 Lakeland ) Game 2
Austin Jackson 1-4, HR, 2 RBI. Ajax has hit 7 HRâ€™s and .378 since his call up
Reggie Corona 1-3, R, Rbi, BB, SB (20th)
Tim Battle 2-3, R
Marcos Veccionacchi 1-3 2B
Anthony Claggett 5 IP, 7 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
David Robertson 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K. Already on the A list. What a great draft we had in 2006 with RHPâ€™s Kennedy, Chamberlain, Robertson, McAllister and McCutchen picked, as well as the injured Melacon.
Charleston (Ashville def Charleston 5-3)
Mitch Hilligoss 2-4
Josue Calzada 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI
Gabriel Medina 2.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K
Ferdin Tejada 2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (LP)
GCL Yankees Scheduled day off
Again, courtesy of Alan, here is the Down on the Farm report covering yesterday’s games…
Scranton (Charlotte def. Scranton 3-1)
Scranton had only 5 hits.
Andy Canizaro 1-2, 2B, 2 BB
Durazo (DH) 0-4
Eric Duncan 0-4.
Tyler Clippard 5 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 2 K. Youâ€™re killing your trade value
Steven Jackson 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K Show us another good game.
Trenton (5-4 Trenton def New Britain)
Juan Miranda 1-4, 2B, R, 2 RBI Hitting .307 since his call up.
Cody Ehlers (DH) 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, 2 K
Alberto Gonzalez 2-5, 2B, R, K
Aarom Baldris 2-4, 3B, RBI, 2 K
Jeff Marquez 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 K They must have put the ballâ€™s back in the humidor.
Charleston (Ashville def Charleston 6-5)
Mitch Hilligoss 1-4, 2B, BB
Seth Fortenberry 3-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 15th SB
Kevin Smith 2-5, 2B, R
Kyle Anson 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI
James Cooper 2-5, R
Eric Hacker 5 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 1 K
Jessie Hooper 2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 K
Staten Island (State College def SI 7-1)
Justin Snyder 0-4, 3 K Ouch
Taylor Holiday 1-4
Damon Sublett, 0-3
Jose Gil 0-3. 2 E
Zach McAllister 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. 3.47 ERA. Keep an eye on him. Was a smallish control pitcher thatâ€™s grown to 6â€™5â€™and 220 lbs over the last two years and is adding velocity.
Jason Kiley 1 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 2 ER. Thought he was trying out for Tampa Bayâ€™s bullpen.
GCL Yanks (def GCL Indians 6-1)
Abe Almonte 1-4, 2B
Phrylis Cuello 1-5, 2B, R
Andres Perez 2-4, 2B
Melky Mesa 2-4, 2B, 2 R
Ben Blumenthal (C) 4-4, 2B, R, RBI Before we get excited about a catcher batting .307, heâ€™s 24 in GCL
Wilkens De LaRosa 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 K (winning pitcher)
Noel Castillo 4 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 K (Save)