Cervelli’s good luck 2010

Among backup catchers, Francisco Cervelli has been among the best in the league in this young season. He’s gotten on base in more than half of his plate appearances, and it seems like everything he hits finds the outfield grass. It also seems like he gets the hits at just the right time. His eight hits have driven in six runs, even more impressive because he has just one extra base hit on the season.

Photo credit: Chris Carlson/AP

Cervelli will get at least one unexpected start in place of Jorge Posada, who will rest after getting hit in the knee with a fastball last night. Considering how well Cervelli has been hitting — he went 2 for 4 last night — this isn’t necessarily a bad thing. While Posada’s superiority is clear, the Yanks will get a chance to squeeze more production out of Cervelli while he’s hot. It’s not going to last all season.

April BABIPs bring May regressions. We’ll see that positively affect slumping hitters like Mark Teixeira and Nick Johnson — both of whom picked up hits last night — but we’ll also see it negatively affect streaking hitters. Cervelli will not keep up his .471 BABIP, and so we’ll see his numbers drop a bit. What’s even more ridiculous is his BA on ground balls. The AL as a whole is hitting .208 on ground balls, but Cervelli is hitting .400. The league mark will come up, and Cervelli’s will come down, but for now Cervelli’s ground balls have eyes.

Cervelli’s walk and strikeout rates are also likely unsustainable. He has struck out just once this season, mostly because he has avoided pitches outside the strike zone. When he has swung at pitches outside the zone he has made contact every time, another unsustainable rate. It helps, then, that he’s seen more pitches in the zone this year than he has in the past. He’s been a bit more discerning, though, swinging at fewer of them overall.

What we don’t know is how Cervelli will adjust. We know he won’t hit this well all season, but where he ends up remains a mystery. We do know that he has hits and walks in the bank. He has walked three times already this season, so he’s already above his 2009 total. To reach his 2009 total in batting average he’d have to go 20 for his next 76, .263, something we know he can do. Even if he does that without drawing even one more walk, he’d still have a higher OBP than last season.

Any positive offensive contribution Cervelli makes is a bonus. It’s gravy. Icing on the cake. House money. However you want to describe his offensive production, it’s not why he got the backup catcher job. He’s outstanding defensively and has already established, at least among Yankees fans, a reputation for working well with pitchers. That is his primary task, and as long as he performs that well all he needs to do is hit better than Wil Nieves. Given what we saw last year and what we’ve seen so far this year, I think that’s a safe assumption.

Swisher, Cano & Sabathia help get Yanks back in the win column

The last five games hadn’t exactly gone according to plan, but the Yankees had the right man on the hill Wednesday night to get things headed back in the right direction. CC Sabathia took the ball and carried the team into the 8th inning, and even though his final line wasn’t pretty (7.2 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K), he did exactly what an ace is supposed: he stopped the losing streak.

Stop hitting our players, kthxbye. (Photo Credit: Gail Burton, AP)

Biggest Hit: Nick Swisher‘s Triple

The Paul O’Neill Theory was on full display tonight, as the Yanks jumped out to an early 2-0 lead off Jeremy Guthrie after pushing some late-inning runs across in a loss the day before. They came back for more in the second, when Jorge Posada led off the inning by taking a pitch off his knee (more on that later) and Curtis Granderson followed that up with a sharp single to left-center (ditto). Eighth place hitter Nick Swisher, he of the .488 career wOBA at Camden Yards, stepped to the plate with a chance back Guthrie into a corner, and he didn’t disappoint.

Photo Credit: Gail Burton, AP

The Orioles’ righthander broke out a first pitch changeup that missed away for a ball, but then dropped a slider and another changeup in for a 1-2 count. Guthrie throws his fastball 53% of the time in a 1-2 count, and Swisher must have paid attention to the pregame scouting report, because he jumped all over a 92 mph heater left up in the zone. The ball flew over centerfielder Adam Jones’ head, hit the base of the wall, and ricocheted back into the outfield. The lumbering Posada and speedy Granderson scored, and Swisher slid into third without a play for his second triple of the season. The Yankees had built a four-run lead before Guthrie could record his fourth out, and their chances of winning already stood at 87.3% in the 2nd inning.

Swisher has already tied his career high with two triples this year, and you have to think he’ll luck into another one at some point over the final 142 games.

Biggest Out: Matt Wieters’ Strikeout

After giving up that early 2-0 lead, the Orioles tried their best to get it right back in the bottom of the 1st. Nick Markakis sliced a one-out double down the leftfield line and moved to third when Miguel Tejada singled two batters later. Baltimore had runners on the corners with two outs, and after seeing how quickly a lead could evaporate the night before, I can imagine Sabathia really wanted to bear down and escape the inning without allowing a run.

He started the Orioles’ catching phenom with a sinking fastball on the outer half, but Wieters fouled it off. The next pitch was a big breaking slider that caught the inside of the plate for strike two. On the next pitch, Sabathia let go of a changeup a little too early and it sailed way off the plate for the first ball of the encounter. It’s no secret that the change is CC’s weapon of choice against righthanded batters, so he went right back to it for the fourth offering of the at-bat, except this time he executed the pitch. Wieters got caught out in front, and swung right through the pitch for the inning ending strikeout.

It sounds silly in hindsight given the wide margin of victory, but getting out of that inning without allowing a run was a big step toward putting this one in the win column.

Photo Credit: Gail Burton, AP

The Stopper

Like I said at the top, it wasn’t always pretty for Sabathia, but he managed to give his team length and keep the Orioles in check while his offense went to work. Baltimore had runners on base in seven of the eight innings started by the Yankee ace, but they only scored three runs and left eight men on base. The defense helped by turning a pair of double plays, but that was possible because of Sabathia’s 12-6 GB/FB ratio. It certainly wasn’t his best outing, but the Yankees are paying CC to turn losing streaks into winning streaks, and that’s exactly what he did on Wednesday.

Slump Busters

Curtis Granderson came into Wednesday’s game riding an 0-for-17 stretch, but he said before the game that he wasn’t concerned and it was just part of the normal ups and downs of a long season. The most well-spoken Yankee busted out of that slump in his first at-bat, taking the first two pitches off the plate before reaching out and slapping a 92 mph fastball from Guthrie into left-center for his first hit since the Oakland series. He tacked on another hit later in the game for good measure.

Nick Johnson didn’t enjoy the same kind of multi-hit breakout as Granderson, but he still managed to find the outfield grass on a ball in play. Given that he missed a few days with a stiff back, it’s easy to forget that Johnson picked up a hit in his last start in Anaheim, and he had a nice little stretch of reaching base in three consecutive plate appearances and four of five. The batting average is still an ugly .143, but he’s getting on base 38.5% of the time and has shown signs of waking up lately.

Now we’re just waiting on Mark Teixeira to get it going. May is only two days away.

Happy Moments

Photo Credit: Gail Burton, AP

What more can we say about Robinson Cano? The guy went 2-for-5 with his sixth homer of the year in this game, bumping his triple-slash line up to .390-.430-.701.  He leads the American League in batting average by 22 points and all of baseball by 17 points, and it would take an 0-for-24 stretch for Cano’s average to dip below .300. I know it’s April, but that’s utterly insane. If the Yankees didn’t already contractually control his rights through 2013, I’d suggest that they lock him up before he hits the open market.

Road Swish. It truly is an awesome spectacle. Three hits tonight to boost his season line to .284-.385-.493, which has to be against some kind of unwritten rule regarding the maximum allowable offensive production of a guy hitting eighth. Slash-and-dash Brett Gardner behind him too; the Yanks’ 8-9 hitters combined to go 5-for-9 on Wednesday. That’s how you score eight runs across the first six innings of a game.

You know what else is awesome? That Sabathia gave up three runs in 7.2 innings, and the general feel is that it was a subpar start for the big guy. When’s the last time we could say that about a Yankee starter? CC has really spoiled us, let me tell you.

Oh, and hey, it’s Sergio Mitre! Good for him.

Photo Credit: Gail Burton, AP

Annoying Moments

Not too many for me, but I don’t know what’s up with Jeremy Guthrie. The guy just loves hitting Yankees. I’m sure you remember him drilling Tex in elbow during the last week of Spring Training, giving the entire fan base a minor heart attack, and then on Wednesday he plunked Posada right above his right kneecap with a fastball. Jorge stayed in to run the bases, but he was lifted in favor of Frankie Cervelli after the inning. No tests are scheduled right now and Posada said they’re going to wait and see how he feels tomorrow, but you have to believe the Yankees will be careful with their 38-year-old catcher. I would be pretty surprised if anyone but Cervelli was behind the dish Thursday night, no reason the push it.

WPA Graph

Nice and boring, just the way I like it. Individual breakdowns are available at FanGraphs’ box score.

Up Next

Thursday night’s rubber game with feature A.J. Burnett and one of the best young pitchers in the game, lefty Brian Matusz. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm, and it’ll be broadcast on MLB Network as their featured game of the week.

Russo, Winfree take Chapman deep

Damon Sublett had surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb, and he’s going to be out for a long time. Maybe all season. Sucks. Meanwhile, my friend Andy in Sunny Daytona tells me that Andrew Brackman is due back from the disabled list any day now. Apparently he just had a cut on his pitching hand that needed to heal. No biggie.

Triple-A Scranton (5-4 win over Louisville) got to face the $30M man in this one
Kevin Russo, 3B: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K – took Aroldis Chapman deep, the first homer the Cuban flamethrower has given up as a pro
Colin Curtis, RF: 1 for 1 – got picked off first … left the game for an unknown reason in the 3rd
Jon Weber, RF: 0 for 2, 1 BB – took over for Curtis, and his AVG if down to .154
Eduardo Nunez, SS: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 K – he’s 19 for his last 44 (.432) with more walks (4) than strikeouts (2)
Juan Miranda, DH: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K – hit a two run bomb to give them the lead in the 8th
David Winfree, 1B & Reegie Corona, 2B: both 1 for 3, 1 R – Winfree drew a walk & also took Chapman deep for a solo shot
Jesus Montero, C, Chad Huffman, LF & Greg Golson, CF: all 0 for 3 – Montero & Huffman each K’ed once
Ivan Nova: 6 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HB, 10-5 GB/FB – 58 of 94 pitches were strikes (61.7%) … he was due for a bit of a clinker
Royce Ring: 0.2 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 0-1 GB/FB – five of his seven pitches were strikes
Zack Segovia: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 0-3 GB/FB – 13 of 25 pitches were strikes (52%)
Mark Melancon: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 0-2 GB/FB – six of his eight pitches were strikes

[Read more…]

Game 20: Stop the bleeding

RAWR!!! (Photo Credit: Rob Carr, AP)

As fast as the start to the season was for the Yankees, things turned in the opposite direction just as quick. They’ve lost four of their last five games despite being outscored by just three runs during that stretch. Even with their recent dip, the Yanks still have the fourth best winning percentage and fifth best run differential in the game, plus … you know … the season is far from over. They’re still on a 102 win pace.

CC Sabathia gets the ball tonight in an effort to right the ship, back at the site of where he first announced his arrival to the Yankees last May. He faced Jeremy Guthrie that night, and he’ll do the same again on this one. Of course, Alex Rodriguez stole the show in that game when he hit a three run homer on the first pitch thrown to him on the season. Such a selfish jerk.

CC’s coming off back-to-back complete games, except one was rain shortened and the other was an eight inning loss. You can tell Joe Girardi is really trying to get off the schneid tonight, he’s sending the A-lineup out there to back up Sabathia…

Jeter, SS
Johnson, DH
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Cano, 2B
Posada, C
Granderson, CF
Swisher, RF
Gardner, LF

And on the mound, Carsten Charles Sabathia.

First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm, and can be seen on YES. Enjoy.

The All Star Game will be more offensive

Major League Baseball just can’t keep its hands off the All Star Game. Although this glorified exhibition game “counts” for something, the powers-that-be have been tinkering with the format over the last few years. After the 2002 game ended in a tie, the All Star Game became the determining factor for home field advantage in the World Series, and the rosters expanded to ensure a deeper bench.

Today, MLB announced a new round of changes — including the universal DH no matter the home ballpark — that will be implemented this year when the game heads to Anaheim. The changes came out of the workings of the Commissioner’s Special Committee for On-Field Matters, and the Players Association has given them its blessings. They are as follows.:

  • The designated hitter rule will now be utilized by both teams regardless of whether the All-Star Game is played in an American League or a National League ballpark. The National League’s starting DH will be selected by the N.L. All-Star manager, while the American League’s starting DH will continue to be selected via fan balloting.
  • Any pitcher selected to an All-Star Team who starts a regular season game on the Sunday immediately preceding the All-Star Game will not be eligible to pitch in the All-Star Game and will be replaced on the roster. The pitcher who is ineligible to play in the All-Star Game will be recognized as an All-Star, will be welcome to participate in All-Star festivities and will be introduced in uniform.
  • Rosters will be expanded from 33 players to 34 players, consisting of 21 position players and 13 pitchers. Last year’s 33-man rosters consisted of 20 position players and 13 pitchers.
  • In addition to the existing injured catcher rule, one additional position player who has been selected to an All-Star Team will be designated by each All-Star manager as eligible to return to the game in the event that the last position player at any position is injured.

By and large, these rules seem to guard against the injury potential while also enhancing the entertainment value of the game. With pitchers no longer batting, AL managers aren’t forced into some awkward double-switch situations, and the reality is that fans would rather see a slugger rather than a weak-hitter pitcher come to the plate during the Midsummer Classic. Perhaps with some extra offense, the NL, winless since 1996, will have a fighting chance.

These recommendations are among the first in a series that should come from the Commission’s committee. Consisting of, according to USA Today, “Tony La Russa, Mike Scioscia, Jim Leyland and Joe Torre, eight current and former front-office executives and Hall of Famer Frank Robinson,” this group has already urged MLB to compress the playoff schedule, and the panel is set to release a longer report on the game last this year.

The Yankees might not be as hated as you think

If you were to survey a random group of 1,000 baseball fans about their most hated team, I suspect the Yankees would be the most frequent answer. There are just so many reasons to hate them. They buy their team via free agency. They have an unmatched payroll. They win, a lot. And their fans have developed a sense of entitled arrogance. I think this picture sums up how fans of other teams view Yankees fans.

According to a recent study, though, there are other teams that face a bit more net hate than the Yankees. David Biderman of The Wall Street Journal describes a survey conducted by Nielsen Co. — the company that determines television ratings with their set-top boxes. They developed an algorithm that searches the internet to determines the positive and negative reactions to various brands. Among baseball teams, the Yankees somehow did not score the lowest.

That honor belongs to the Cleveland Indians with a score of 0.9 on the -5 to 5 scale. The Red Sox were the next most hated team at 1.1. You have to get past the Cincinnati Reds and Houston Astros before you get to the Yankees, in the No. 5 spot, at 1.8. The Mets rank as the ninth most hated team, and our very own Ben Kabak has a quote in the article regarding that.

“Even Yankee fans don’t hate the Mets these days,” says Benjamin Kabak, a writer for the River Avenue Blues Yankees blog. “We just feel bad for them.”

I suspect this survey suffers from a volume issue. Are the Indians, Reds, and Astros really more hated than the Yankees? Obviously not. The issue, I think, is that there is so much positive reaction to the Yankees that it offsets a lot of the negative remarks. Again, I’m not sure of the exact algorithm, but I’m pretty sure that the positive reactions from the large Yankees fan base played a big part in their ranking. Compare that to the fan bases of the Indians, Reds, and Astros, all of which have experienced a few losing seasons lately.

Optimizing the bullpen with another righty

Photo Credit: Julie Jacobson, AP

A disabled list trip that was originally supposed to be nothing more than an early season precaution has morphed into a multiple week hiatus with no end in sight for Chan Ho Park, whose bum hammy has yet to improve. The Yankees originally called up Boone Logan to replace him in part because CHoP was expected to be out just the minimum two weeks, but also because he left a solid enough impression during Spring Training. At the same time, Mark Melancon would remain with Triple-A Scranton and work on a regular schedule, rather than be buried as the sixth or seventh man in the bullpen. Now that Park’s return has entered into “indefinite” territory, it might be time for the Yankees to swap out Logan and Melancon.

Logan has put five men on base in his 2.1 innings of work so far despite his new mechanics, but we’re talking about three games, which are meaningless to base an evaluation on. Sure, last night’s episode of walking the sole lefty batter he brought in to face was frustrating, but that happens to everyone. The real reason why I’d like to see Melancon brought up to replace Logan is the upcoming schedule.

The Yanks’ next eight games come against the Orioles and White Sox, who have .316 and a .299 team wOBA’s against righthanders. The Orioles has several lefthanded bats in Nick Markakis, Luke Scott, and Rhyne Hughes, but Markakis is the only one who is demonstrably worse against southpaw pitching (.328 wOBA vs. LHP, .377 vs. RHP). Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera have the 8th and 9th innings exclusively, so Damaso Marte can be used against him as needed in the 6th or 7th inning. Good righty relievers like Al Aceves and David Robertson (last night notwithstanding) should be able to neutralize the other two.

The White Sox have four lefty batters in their regular lineup, but three of them are named Juan Pierre (.243 wOBA), Mark Kotsay (.193), and A.J. Pierzynski (.172). The fourth is Mark Teahen who is having a fine year (.390 wOBA), so that makes him Marte’s designated guy for the series. The other three are awful, and burning through relievers just to get a platoon advantage against them is the height of foolishness.

Once the eight games against those two clubs are through, the Yanks head back to Boston, whose top lefty batters are David Ortiz (.240 wOBA) and J.D. Drew (.271). Drew is a high quality player with a platoon split (.349 wOBA vs. LHP, .394 vs. RHP), so that’s the guy you sic Marte after. Ortiz can’t catch up to even average fastballs anymore, so any thought about bringing in a lefty specialist to face him is based only on the scars of the damage he’s done in the past. He’s not worth it any more, Drew’s the only lefty in their lineup worth fearing.

After the Red Sox series is a four game set at Detroit, who bring very little offensively beyond the top four of Austin Jackson, Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, and Miggy Cabrera. Damon’s the only lefty, and Yankee fans are well aware of his platoon split after his time in the Bronx. Again, there’s only one lefthanded bat in the lineup worth saving a lefty reliever for. A second lefthander really won’t be a true necessity until after that Tigers’ series, when the Twins bring Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, and Jim Thome to town for a weekend set from May 14th to 16th. The next 15 games are against predominantly righthanded lineups.

That’s where Melancon comes in. The schedule allows the Yankees to only carry one lefty specialist, instead stacking the bullpen with righthanders that create better matchups. Melancon has a negligible platoon split in the minors, and has pitched to a 3.23 FIP against righthanders during his career. He has been good yet not overwhelming at Triple-A Scranton (4.33 FIP, 1.89 GB/FB, 8.78 K/9), but we all know that his track record is exceptionally strong. He’s the logical call-up for that spot currently occupied by Logan.

If the Yankees go this route, Joe Girardi has to commit to being more liberal with not just Marte, but Melancon as well. He has to show a willingness to bring Marte into the 6th inning of a game if the situation calls for it, and he can’t bury Melancon for a week or more. Joba’s the 8th inning guy, we may not like it but they officially announced it to the world, so show some confidence in the kid and let him face a lefty if they come up in his inning. Girardi and the Yanks will have close to three weeks to evaluate Melancon before the Twins series, so they can adjust accordingly from there.

There’s no reason to double up on lefty relievers over the next few weeks, so why not tailor make the relief corps to fit the opponents?