Cool Standings ranks the top collapses

I don’t want to jinx anything (you don’t believe in that stuff, do you?), but I thought this was pretty neat: Cool Standings put together a list of the biggest collapses in baseball history based on the team’s peak playoff chances. For example, the 2007 Mets had 99.5% chance to make the postseason on Sept. 13th, but we all know what happened there. Amazingly enough, that’s only the third biggest collapse in history. The 1995 Angels had a 99.9% chance (!!!) to make the postseason in August 24th, but they finished the season on a 12-23 skid and one game back of the Mariners. I imagine the internet would have exploded back then.


Rays @ Red Sox Game Thread

The Rays and Red Sox are playing this afternoon, a game that is very relevant to the Yankees. Unfortunately, if you’re in New York, you won’t be able to watch because the Mets and Braves will be on FOX. I know a ton of you folks are outside the Tri-State though, so here’s a thread to talk about the game. Game starts at 4pm, and it’ll be Niemann vs. Lester.

Update: The game is on FOX Sports Deportes in New York. It’s channel 125 for me on Time Warner in NYC. The broadcast is in Spanish, obviously.

Game 150: A-Rod’s back, yet again

How can you expect to get a hit ... when you're not even using a real bat? (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

After missing another six days because of that sprained left thumb, Alex Rodriguez is back in the lineup this afternoon, but in an unfamiliar spot. He’s hitting fifth for the first time in the Joe Girardi Era, and the first time since September 6th of 2006. Here’s the box score for that game. Seven innings of one-hit ball from Randy Johnson, neat. Here’s the lineup…

Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Mark Teixeira, 1B – .244/.337/.488
Robinson Cano, 2B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B – .284/.367/.475 … why is he batting fifth and not Tex?
Nick Swisher, RF
Jesus Montero, DH
Brett Gardner, LF
Austin Romine, C

Bartolo Colon, SP

The game is scheduled to start at 1:07pm ET, and you can watch on YES. Enjoy.

No fearing the Texas two-step

Trying to pick a favorable playoff opponent is a fool’s errand. Prefer Detroit? Then prepare to face Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and a bullpen that has led the team to a 72-0 record when leading after 7 innings. Prefer Los Angeles? They have perhaps the best starting pitching troika in the American League in Weaver, Haren and Santana. If Texas is your cup of tea, then you’ll have to contend with groundball artist C.J. Wilson and the potent Rangers’ offense. There’s no easy first round opponent for the Yankees this year. The Twins will be sitting at home.

Despite all that, one has to imagine that the Yankees would represent the worst-case scenario in the ALDS for the Texas Rangers. Not only will the Rangers likely be facing the Yankees in New York for the first two games, instead of hosting the Red Sox or Rays, but the Yankees would also be able to blunt one of the Rangers’ biggest advantages:┬átheir two strong left-handed starters. As it stands, the likely ALDS starters for the Rangers are C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison. Wilson and Holland have been tough this year, but there’s reason to think that the Yankees can handle left-handed starting pitching with ease this October. After all, they’ve dominated left-handed pitching all year.

Should the Yankees choose to start Andruw Jones over Brett Gardner against a left-handed starter in the ALDS, seven of their nine hitters will have compiled an OPS of over .850 against left-handed pitchers this season. The two that miss the cut are Russell Martin and Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez is currently in the middle of a curious slump against left-handed pitching. Despite a career average of .947 OPS against left-handers, he’s currently batting .783 against them this year after a .755 mark in 2010. If he’s even a modicum of his former self in the playoffs, then the Yankees attack on left-handed starters will be potent.

The reason for this strength against lefties is comprised of several factors. For one, the left-handed batters have shown the ability to hit lefties consistently well. Curtis Granderson in particular stands out. Once nearly a platoon player, Granderson punishes lefties and righties with nearly equal pleasure. Robinson Cano does the same. There’s also Jesus Montero, perhaps the greatest source of offensive upside in the Yankees’ lineup. Projecting his performance is nearly impossible, but he has a minor league track record and a small major league performance to drool over. Finally there’s Andruw Jones, long the abuser of left-handed starters. Should the Yankees choose to sacrifice Gardner’s speed and defense for Jones’ offense then they’ll truly be formidable at the plate. Their two main focal points of weakness would be┬áRussell Martin, a defensive stalwart, and Alex Rodriguez, possibly the greatest hitter of all time. Everything else is gravy.

This isn’t to guarantee a win against Wilson or Holland; they’re still very tough pitchers. But it does show that facing Wilson and Holland twice in the first three games of the American League Division Series would give give the Yankees a nice platoon advantage. At the end of the day, it’s hard to know who to cheer for as a first-round opponent. In 2006 I wanted the Tigers in the first-round, and we all remember how that turned out. Yet, should the Yankees draw Texas I won’t fear them like before. This time there’s no Cliff Lee, and this time the team will field an offense capable of bludgeoning starting pitchers, righties and lefties alike. This team may have a few questions about the rotation, but the offense couldn’t be much better.

Yanks drop opener to Jays on Molina walk-off hit

The Yankees are back from the west coast, but perhaps the offense and CC Sabathia‘s command decided to stay behind and enjoy the nice weather for a few extra days. Let’s recap…

  • How many more six-inning, 120-pitch outings are the Yankees going to let CC Sabathia throw before they cut the crap with this six-man rotation? This was basically the fourth start in a row he’s done that. Don’t get me wrong, I was in favor of the six-man rotation … back in August. We’re in mid-September now, well beyond its expiration date. Sabathia gave up another ten hits (fifth time he’s done that in his last ten starts) and walked another four batters (second start in a row), and once again the story of his game was his command, or lack thereof. His velocity is more than fine and he’s still piling up the strikeouts (eight), but he’s throwing way too much pitches. They need to get him back on normal rest, like right now. There’s not much schedule left, they can’t let this go on any longer.
  • After Sabathia exited, the bullpen usage was textbook. Rafael Soriano struck out the side in the seventh, David Robertson wiggled out of a jam in the eighth, and a reliever not named Mariano Rivera gave up the walk-off hit in the ninth. Tie game on the road, gotta save that closer for the save spot, you know. Cory Wade served up the walk-off hit for a second game in a row, but not before Boone Logan failed to get out the lefty he was brought in to face (double by Adam Lind). Logan’s been quite good at that this year, giving up extra base hits to lefties. At least Jose Molina got the game-winning hit, not some other Blue Jay jerk. I can’t hate on Molina, he’s a championship Yankee.
  • The offense was basically Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher and Eric Chavez. Swisher doubled in Cano in the first and then singled him home in the seventh. Chavez clubbed a two-run homer to dead center in the fourth. The Yankees had just five hits after picking up just four (in twelve innings) in the last game. Cano, Swisher, and Chavez combined to go 5-for-12 while everyone else in the lineup went 0-for-19 with two walks (Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner). That’s it. It looked like the offense was getting back to being itself during the first two games in Seattle, but I guess not.
  • The Red Sox beat the Rays, so the lead in the division dropped to 3.5 games (four in the loss column) while the lead in the wildcard remained at 7.5 games. The magic number to clinch a playoff spot dropped to just six. Here’s the box score, here’s the FanGraphs stats, and here’s the standings.

The second game of this three-game set will be played Saturday afternoon at 1:07pmET, when Bartolo Colon takes on the rookie Henderson Alvarez.

Game 149: Home Stretch

No Ricky Romero this weekend, thankfully. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Here we are, the home stretch. There’s only 14 games and 13 days left in the season, and exactly two weeks from today, CC Sabathia will be doing exactly what he’ll be doing tonight: starting for the Yankees. The stakes will be much higher in two weeks though, that will be Game One of the ALDS. Here’s the starting nine…

Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, RF
Eric Chavez, 3B
Jorge Posada, DH
Russell Martin, C
Brett Gardner, LF

CC Sabathia, SP

Hooray for a 7pm ET start! The game will be on My9 locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy. Oh, and go Rays.

Still no A-Rod in Yanks lineup

Alex Rodriguez is not in tonight’s lineup against the Blue Jays, presumably because his sprained left thumb is still bothering him. Either that, or Joe Girardi is putting way too much stock into Alex being 1-for-15 against tonight’s starter, Dustin McGowan. McGowan’s been on the shelf for the last three years with shoulder trouble, the 1-for-15 is irrelevant.

Anyway, Girardi said earlier in the week that the plan was the give Alex a little extra time of in Seattle with the off day, but that he would do regular fielding drills and some sort of swinging to see how the thumb feels. Apparently it doesn’t feel good enough yet. It’s been six days since A-Rod was supposed to be out “three or four days.” Robinson Cano, meanwhile, is in the lineup after getting hit by that pitch on Wednesday night.