Today is a wonderful time if you love season projections and simulations. Which is to say that it’s a great day for the nerdiest of the nerdy. Today at Replacement Level SG has posted his 2011 Diamond Mind simulations for the American League. For those unfamiliar, Diamond Mind is a simulator that takes input stats, runs hundreds of thousands of simulations, and spits out probabilities for wins and losses, among other things. For the inputs he uses five projection systems: Bill James, CAIRO, Marcel, Oliver, and PECOTA.
The Yankees come out with 92.4 wins, two wins behind the Red Sox, but six wins ahead of the Rays. That puts them comfortably into a playoff spot. Make sure to check out the whole post for the full standings. Most of all, check out the disclaimers. SG lays out all the stuff we should know — we can’t predict injuries, these aren’t predictions, etc. — but often forget when looking at simulations.