2011 Draft: John Sickels’ Mock Draft v2.0

John Sickels of Minor League Ball posted his second mock draft over the weekend (first round, sandwich round). His top three is the same as last time – Rice 3B Anthony Rendon to the Pirates, UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole to the Mariners, Virginia LHP Danny Hultzen to the Diamondbacks – but things get a little haywire after that. Sickels has the Yankees taking New York’s own Williams Jerez with their first selection (51st overall), noting that “stock is rising and he’s linked with the Yankees.” Fortunately, I told you everything you need to know about Jerez about two weeks ago.

The new A.J. Burnett, same as the old one

Given their pitching woes, the Yankees need A.J. Burnett to rebound from his horrible 2010 season and become at least a solid innings eater in the middle of their rotation this season. Not want, need. Burnett woke up this morning with a shiny 3.99 ERA, which is almost exactly league average these days. His 4.43 FIP is better than last year’s mark (4.83) but is still below average, though his 3.98 xFIP (4.49 in 2010) is basically on par with the rest of the league. Returning to league average is an improvement for Burnett, sadly.

However, ERA and FIP really don’t paint the whole picture. Offense was down last season and it continued to crater this year, so our feel for what’s good and what’s bad might need to be recalibrated. When you take a look at the underlying performance (table on the right), you can see that A.J. is essentially the exact same guy now as he was last year in terms of strikeouts, walks, ground balls, and homerun rate. The AL average strikeout rate actually dropped a bit this year despite the decrease in offense (6.83 K/9 vs. 6.67), but the homerun rate went down about a tenth of a homer per nine while walk rates remained static. So in a way you can say that Burnett’s fielding independent performance (particularly homers and walks) actually got worse this year.

So what’s different? For one, he’s managed to cut more than 70 points off his overall BABIP (.246 vs. .319) even though his batted ball profile barely changed. The BABIP drop is most notable when there are men on base.  Last year, opponents tagged Burnett for a .247/.319/.410 line with men on base and .260/.328/.450 with runners in scoring position. Those lines have dropped to .212/.300/.394 and .197/.253/.379 this year, respectively. The BABIPs nosedived from a normal .285 and .292 in those spots in 2010 to a measly .227 and .197 in 2011, again respectively. A.J.’s strikeout rate is pretty much the same in those spots in both years (about one whiff for every five batters), but the batting ball data shows that hitters have been putting the ball in the air a lot more often with men on base this year than last (about 10% more often). More balls in the air translates to a lower BABIP, but sheesh, not that low.

Aside from the remodeled (but not overhauled) mechanics and a few more changeups, the 2011 version of Burnett is pretty much exactly the same as the 2010 version. He’s running into some better luck (especially when pitching from the stretch with men on base) after being on the other end of the spectrum last season, but the underlying performance is all the same. If Burnett runs out of luck with men on base, it could get ugly, and will only emphasize the team’s need for another high-end starter. For now, the end result (runs allowed) is better, but at the end of the day it’s still the same old A.J.

Yanks top A’s by a touchdown, win third straight

That one ain't coming back.

Weird things happen in Oakland. Last year it was the whole Dallas Braden-Alex Rodriguez nonsense (don’t forget the triple play!), and tonight it was Mark Teixeira stealing home. No, it wasn’t a straight steal of home, Conor Jackson’s errant throw had a hand in it, but it all looks the same in the box score. Since it’s late because of the west coast stuff, let’s recap this one the easy way…

  • Coming into Tuesday’s game, Brett Anderson had allowed exactly zero extra base hits to left-handed batters this year. Four pitches into the game, the Yankees had a two-run lead thanks to Curtis Granderson‘s 17th homer of the season, his league leading ninth off left-handed pitching. Raise your hand if you thought you’d ever hear that. Robinson Cano homered in the fifth inning, so make that two lefties with extra base hits off Anderson in the game.
  • Tex’s steal of home came after A-Rod got caught in a run down between first and second following a Cano strike out. Tex broke for home and Jackson essentially threw the ball into the dirt and Kurt Suzuki was unable to handle it. That’s pretty much it, but it’s still cool.
  • As for the rest of the offense: A-Rod had three hits and drove in three runs, Derek Jeter had two hits and scored three runs, Grandy had three hits total, and both Nick Swisher and Andruw Jones reached twice as well. Swish had a rough night, he got doubled off first on an infield fliner, bobbled a ball off the wall, and then got picked off third when Brett Gardner failed to get a bunt down on a squeeze play. Why they were attempting a squeeze in the fourth inning, I will never know.
  • Freddy Garcia was good enough but not great, though going seven innings in a laugher is always appreciated. Somehow the A’s only scored three runs off him despite two walks and nine hits, four of which went for extra bases (including a triple and a homer). It wasn’t always pretty, but I’ll be more than happy with that effort every time out.
  • I didn’t hear it myself, but I’ve been told that the Athletics broadcast (which is very good) said Cano is just the second second baseman in history to hit at least ten homers in his first seven big league season. If true, that’s pretty cool.
  • Here’s the box score and WPA graph.

These two teams will wrap up this series tomorrow when A.J. Burnett gives it a go against Gio Gonzalez. That game starts at 3:35pm ET, so none of this late night nonsense.

Montero homers, Maxwell hurt in SWB win

Make sure you scroll down for tonight’s game thread.

Justin Maxwell is your Triple-A International League Offensive Player of the Week while Shaeffer Hall took home Double-A Eastern League Pitcher of the Week honors. Amaury Sanit has been placed on the disabled list with some kind of leg muscle issues, and Jordan Parraz was activated to take his place on the roster.

Triple-A Scranton (10-3 win over Indianapolis) they smacked them around so much that Indianapolis had to use a position player to pitch the ninth
Austin Krum, CF: 2 for 6, 1 R, 1 2B
Ramiro Pena, SS: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 BB – 13 for his last 40 (.325)
Jesus Montero, C: 2 for 5, 2 R, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI – yeah, he really tripled … the homer was an opposite field job and it came off the guy that was the centerpiece of the Tim Hudson trade back in the day … over the last calendar year (473 AB), he’s hitting .317 with 34 doubles, three triples, and 22 homers (.541 SLG, .224 ISO)
Jorge Vazquez, 1B: 0 for 5, 2 K – five for his last 32 (.156) with 15 K
Justin Maxwell, LF: 0 for 1, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SB – he also robbed a homerun, but he left the game after hurting his right shoulder on the play
Luis Nunez, 2B: 2 for 3, 3 R, 1 BB
Brandon Laird, 3B: 2 for 5, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 K – up to .254 after that brutal start
Jordan Parraz, DH: 4 for 5, 1 R, 1 2B, 4 RBI – I guess there was no rust to shake off
Kevin Russo, 2B-LF: 2 for 4, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Dan Brewer, RF: 1 for 5, 1 RBI, 1 K
Carlos Silva, LHP: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 9-2 GB/FB – 52 of 81 pitches were strikes (64.2%) … that’s a pretty typical Carlos Silva start right there … figure he’s got another starter or two, maybe even three before the mid-June opt-out comes into play
Buddy Carlyle, RHP: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 2-2 GB/FB – 25 of 41 pitches were strikes (61%)
Eric Wordekemper, RHP: 1 IP, zeroes, 2-1 GB/FB – nine pitches, five strikes

[Read more…]

Game 53: Halfway-ish there

Still haven't changed the sign to Overstock.com, I see. (Photo Credit: Amanda Rykoff)

Tonight is game five of this nine game road trip down America’s west coast, and so far I think the net result is a positive one. The Yankees are 2-2 on the trip but had multiple run leads in the two losses against a pair of really good pitchers, which is all you could ask from them. Brett Anderson will be no fun tonight, but then again I said the same thing about Trevor Cahill yesterday. Here’s the lineup…

Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Russell Martin, C
Nick Swisher, RF
Andruw Jones, DH
Brett Gardner, LF

Freddy Garcia, RHP

First pitch is scheduled for a little after 10pm ET, and the game can be seen on YES locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy, assuming you stay awake for the whole game.

Open Thread: Shock! Yankees players considered overrated

Ah yes, the good ol’ Sport Illustrated MLB players poll, when players around the league annually vote the players they’re most jealous of their least favorite Yankee(s) as the most overrated player in the game. Alex Rodriguez tops the list this year, followed by Joba Chamberlain and Derek Jeter. Joba was in the top spot last year while A-Rod came in second, so those two flip flopped. Jayson Werth places fourth this year followed by Jonathan Papelbon, but Nick Swisher received the same amount of votes as those two. For all intents and purposes, the top four spots of the list were occupied by Yankees. Are they overpaid? Sure. But I think you could make a case that A-Rod and Joba are actually underrated in the public eye given how often they get trashed in the media.

Anyway, I just figured I’d throw that out there. The regular game thread will be along a little later on (game starts at 10pm ET), so use this open thread to hold you over. The Mets are again playing the Pirates (Dickey vs. McDonald), plus the Giants and Cardinals (Vogelsong vs. Carpenter) will be on ESPN. The NBA Finals start tonight as well, you can watch that on ABC at 9pm ET. Talk about whatever, go nuts.


Keith Law’s Updated Top 25 Prospects

Keith Law posted an updated list of the top 25 prospects in baseball today (Insider req’d), and Jesus Montero jumped from number four in the preseason rankings to number three. That’s only because Domonic Brown graduated to the big leagues though, Montero basically maintained his spot. “I’m holding on this one,” said KLaw, “because I think he’ll hit and no one is reporting anything significantly wrong with him except over-eagerness at the plate; I imagine there’s some frustration that the Yankees are employing a guy hitting .174/.292/.348 in a spot Montero could fill.” He has no idea.

As for Manny Banuelos, he jumped from number 12 to number eight, again because of graduation more than anything. “Not a great start to the year, although the stuff is largely intact (if not quite as electric as it was in the AFL last year) … every source save one said he was still an elite prospect in their views, worthy of a top 10 spot.” Unsurprisingly, no other Yankees cracked the top 25 even though three others cracked Law’s preseason top 100 list.