In a completely unsurprising move, the Yankees have shored up their bullpen by calling up Hector Noesi. He was scheduled to start for Triple-A Scranton today, so he’s good for 100 pitches if needed. Buddy Carlyle was send down in the corresponding move, and I’m pretty surprised that he has options left after all these years. I figured that Amaury Sanit would be the guy since he threw 80-something pitches yesterday and won’t be available for a few days. Anyway, perhaps we’ll actually get to see Noesi pitch this time, preferably in a blowout win.
Things aren’t as bad for the Red Sox now as they were the last time the two teams met. Of course, it was difficult to get any worse for them at that time. Even through their struggles they managed to take two of three. While they’re not out of the woods, it is now the Yankees who are struggling. Perhaps we’ll see a reversal of fortune this weekend. Given the way the Yankees have played lately, it’s tough to see them doing any worse.
What Have the Sox Done Lately?
The Sox haven’t exactly been on fire, but they haven’t struggled too badly either. They did drop their last two to the Blue Jays, but before that they won three straight against the Twins. Of course, they dropped the three before that, but won the three before that. Yeah, they’ve been doing the up again, down again thing, and it has them at 17-20 currently, and 5-5 in their last 10. It’s tough to read too much into that, of course, since they’ll have their three best starters going this weekend, whereas they had Matsuzaka, Lackey, and Wakefield sprinkled throughout those 10 games.
Red Sox on Offense
At all times there must be at least two Red Sox players who absolutely crush the Yankees. These are usually the better players anyway, and they crush other teams. But as with Miguel Cabrera, it seems that they give that little extra and really punish the Yankees. It used to be Ortiz and Manny. Now it’s Pedroia and Youkilis. It’s hard to remember a series from the past few years — in which they both played, of course — where they didn’t scald the ball and make life tough on the Yanks.
It might scare you a bit, then, that Pedroia is on something of a cold streak. He’s hitting just .237/.355/.317 on the season, and that’s just .195/.313/.220 this month. Don’t be lulled, though. As I mentioned on the podcast, to me this makes it appear as though Pedroia is primed for a breakout in the series. We know he’s a good hitter, one of the best hitting second basemen in the league. He’s going badly now, and he’s going to turn it around. Considering how much he’s killed the Yanks, I’m having an easy time envisioning him with a 6 for 12 series with a handful of walks and extra base hits.
Adrian Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie, and Youkilis are leading the offense right now, with 22 doubles and 12 homers between them. In fact, Gonzalez has hit four of his seven in the last four games, during which he has gone 10 for 20 with a double in addition to the four homers. Youkilis hasn’t been quite as hot of late, though he’s still getting his singles and walks. Lowrie has slipped from his early season dominance but is still hitting .327/.360/.505 in 114 PA. I’m surprised he’s walked only six times all year, but that’s probably because he was hitting the ball so well earlier in the year. David Ortiz has turned around his recent history of poor starts and his hitting .291/.372/.488 in his first 145 PA, so he’s helping lead the charge, too. The surprising contributor here is Jacoby Ellsbury, who is at .292/.342/.451, which is nice for the Sox, because he helped compensate for Carl Crawford’s early season crawl. For his own part, Crawford has hit .356/.370/.467 since the calendar flipped to May.
The only trailers, really, are J.D. Drew (.242/.364/.364), Pedroia, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.200/.250/.267). Chances are we’re going to see Jason Varitek (.145/.241/.212) in at least one, and perhaps two, of the games this weekend. That’s a gain all around, as he can’t hit and has no arm. The only positive is that it seems he gets better performances out of the pitching staff. How much of that is skill and how much is chance — he does seem to catch the better pitchers, after all — is up for debate. Either way, the Sox have a light-hitting fixture at the bottom of the lineup.
Red Sox on the Mound
Friday, RHP Clay Buchholz. The last time the Yankees faced Buchholz they hit him around pretty well, racking up eight hits and scoring five runs while driving him from the game in the fourth. He’s had some better success in his subsequent starts, and in his last two his line goes: 11.2 IP, 10 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, 0 HR. The last start was the most impressive, no runs on two hits and six strikeouts in five innings, but it was shortened by rain. We’ll have to deal with his ultra slow approach, which makes for some bad baseball watching. But that doesn’t seem to affect his results.
One thing to watch with Buchholz is the ground balls. He did a great job in his first two seasons of keeping the ball on the ground, and he’s done a decent job of it this year, too. But his fly ball percentage is up a bit, as his home runs to fly ball ratio. That could play into the Yankees hands. Of course, how many times have I written that before, and how many times has it not come true?
Saturday, RHP Josh Beckett. After looking a bit shaky in his first start Beckett got back on track against the Yankees in his second one. He now has his ERA down below 2.00, and his peripherals go right along with that. The strikeouts are a tick lower than in the past, but just a tick. Everything else, including the low walk and home run rates, are right in line with his best years. The Yankees do have a history of knocking around Beckett, but when he’s on like this we just can’t expect it. That curveball is one of the most devastating pitches in the league, and when his back is strong and he’s throwing it well and often, few opponents stand a chance.
Here’s the thing, though: he’s not going to the curveball as much as he has in the past. In the past two years he’s gone to the changeup a bit more often. Thing is, at least this year it has been just as effective, if not more effective, than his curve.
Sunday, LHP Jon Lester. That’s the name you hope you avoid when the Sox are in town, and the first time through the Yankees did get that lucky. This time they rejiggered the rotation to slot Lester in. He’s coming off a very poor start, in which he walked five, including three in the first inning, against Toronto. Yet he’s not a guy I’m going to bet on having two poor starts in a row. Would you? We could be in for another one of those shutdown Sunday night performances we’ve seen from Lester in the past. This is the one game I’m not looking forward to, not only because Lester has a history of killing the Yankees (3.28 ERA in 74 career innings, including 80 strikeouts), but because Freddy Garcia is going for the Yanks. I love what Sweaty Freddy has done so far, but the Red Sox seem like a team that could knock him around a bit.
Recommended Red Sox Reading: Red Sox Beacon, written by friends of RAB Marc Normandin and Patrick Sullivan.
We’re now three weeks and three days away from the draft, prompting Keith Law to update and expand his list of the top 50 draft prospects to 100 (Insider req’d). He still has UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole, Rice 3B Anthony Rendon, and HS OF Bubba Starling in the top three spots, but there’s some movement behind them. The Yankees’ first pick is 51st overall, and the 51st player on KLaw’s list is Cal RHP Erik Johnson. He’s a big dude (6-foot-2, 240 lbs.) notable for his command of three pitches more than blow away stuff. Johnson locates his low-90’s fastball, curveball, and changeup well, but there is some believe he could beef up his fastball with mechanical work.
Five college left-handers I’ve written about this spring rank very close to 51st overall: Vanderbilt LHP Grayson Garvin (47th), Kent State LHP Andrew Chafin (48th), Oregon State LHP Josh Osich (49th), TCU LHP Matt Purke (50th), and Florida LHP Nick Maronde (53rd). KLaw also posted an early projection of the top ten picks (Insider req’d), with Cole going first overall to the Pirates, Rendon second to the Mariners, and Virginia LHP Danny Hultzen third to the Diamondbacks.
It’s everyone’s favorite time of the season: Yanks-Red Sox. The two teams open a three-game series this weekend, and we’re getting ready by talking to Marc Normandin of Baseball Prospectus and Red Sox Beacon. We run down topics ranging from the pitching matchups to slumping players, to Joe West and his awful umpiring crew. Mark really knows his stuff, which makes for a good listen.
Podcast run time 34:11
Here’s how you can listen to podcast:
- Download the RAB Radio Show by right clicking on that link and choosing Save As.
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Intro music: “Die Hard” courtesy of reader Alex Kresovich. Thanks to Tyler Wilkinson for the graphic.
When the Yankees drafted Slade Heathcott in the first round of the 2009 draft, everyone knew the kid had a troubled past, but we didn’t really know what happened. The most popular rumor was that his parents were in jail for drug-related issues. Well, thanks to Gene Sapakoff of The Post & Courier, now we know what happened, and it’s far worse than I think anyone could have imagined. If you only read one thing on this site all day, this is it. Absolute must read.
I managed to keep the answers short-ish this week, so I squeezed in a few more questions than usual. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send in your questions.
Tony asks: How much longer do the Yankees have team control over Robertson?
David Robertson rode the Bronx-Scranton bus in 2008 and finally stuck for good in May 2009. He’s in his final pre-arbitration year right now, and is under team control through 2014 as an arbitration-eligible player. So long story short, three more seasons after this one. That was easy enough.
Dan asks: So, this kills me to ask, but seeing as how I don’t think he’s been hit by one pie since the thing started, and I’ve pretty consistently watched him ground out late in games for the last few years, when was the last time Cap’n Clutch was really clutch?
There’s two ways we can quickly look at this. Just looking at Derek Jeter‘s “Clutch” score, he hasn’t been positive since 2006 (+2.33). He’s hovered between -0.11 and -0.85 over the last few seasons. I prefer WPA/LI, which uses win probability and leverage index to tell us how much the player contributed in the context of the game situations. Jeter last had a positive WPA/LI in 2009 (+1.41). Subjectively, I’ll say 2009. That’s the last time I was confident in Jeter getting the job done, so to speak, whenever he came to the plate in a “big” spot.
J.R. asks: Couldn’t Damon Oppenheimer be a great in house option to replace Cashman? I remember that another team wanted to interview him for a GM spot but that the Yankees wouldn’t grant him permission. (I’m not advocating it, just pointing out that the Yankees have an in house option).
This was sent in following yesterday’s post about contract non-news. Oppenheimer’s the best in-house candidate, and the Yankees actually blocked him from talking to the Diamondbacks about their GM opening over the winter. They had the right to do that, but I still thinking blocking a potential upward move is a dick move. Anyway, it’s either Oppenheimer or pro scouting director Billy Eppler, but neither has even assistant GM experience. Yeah, they’re candidates to replace Cashman, but they’re hardly ideal options.
Jonathan asks: What are the chances the Yanks have three guys play for ROY next year? Assuming those three are Montero, Banuelos and Betances.
I’m comfortable giving this one a big fat 0% chance. There’s a far better chance that one of those guys is playing elsewhere at this time next year, but even if they all are in the organization it’s unlikely all three will be up. Frankly if both Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances are in the rotation all year in 2012 (which they would basically have to be to get Rookie of the Year consideration), then something has gone horribly wrong. There’s also a non-zero chance that Jesus Montero will cross the 130 at-bat rookie threshold this year. It would be pretty cool if all three guys were that good that soon, but I’m not getting my hopes up.
Ryan asks: What do you think of Grady Sizemore as a replacement in RF for Swisher after this year. He looks healthy, and as long as he remains healthy and productive, CLE will not be able to sign him long term after next year’s option. That would be a fun defensive outfield with Gardner, Granderson, and Sizemore, if not just a little too left handed.
I’ve written quite a bit about Sizemore already this spring, and my stance remains unchanged: he has to show he can produce and stay healthy. He’s been pretty good since coming off the disabled list (power heavy .413 wOBA), but it’s been 18 games and 84 at-bats. Let’s see him make it the rest of the season before we start thinking about acquiring him. The other question is how do you acquire him? His club option for 2012 turns into a player option if traded, so you can’t trade for him and expect him to stick around next year. If he’s worth trading for, then he’ll be good enough for a nice contract and will presumably opt for the open market. His bad start notwithstanding, right now I’d just pick up Nick Swisher‘s option and and go from there.
Rich asks: I was hoping you could shed some light on something different I’ve noticed about A.J. this year. Not only has his curveball lost some of it’s bite, but his fastball seems almost straight compared to the movement it’s had in years past. I know he’s made some obvious (and less obvious) changes to his mechanics and I’m sure Rothschild has had an influence, but what happened to all that movement?
Really? I think his curveball has regained some bite after it disappeared last season. PitchFX says the pitch had 5.7 inches of drop last year and 6.3 inches of drop this year. Just over half-an-inch, so it’s not a huge change, but a change nonetheless. Burnett got a swing-and-miss on the curve 14.1% of the time last year, and it’s up to 17.7% this year. A little more vertical movement and substantially more whiffs leads me to believe the bite is back, and even if it’s not, the pitch has been more effective this year based on the run values.
Anyway, PitchFX says he’s lost an inch of horizontal movement off his fastball, down from 5.1 to 4.1 inches. Perhaps it’s the result of the revamped mechanics, or maybe it’s a conscience decision to try to help him improve command. There were times over the last two seasons that it seemed like Burnett’s fastball was moving too much for his own good. It could also just be normal decline, pitches tend to flatten out as the guy gets older. Either way, A.J.’s been good so far this year, so I hope he just keeps doing whatever he’s been doing.