(Rob Carr/Getty)

(Rob Carr/Getty)

The final homestand of the season and Derek Jeter‘s career is upon us. The season flew by, as it tends to do more and more with each passing year. The Orioles are in town for four games this week. They’re 11-4 against the Yankees this season, including 4-2 at Yankee Stadium.

What Have They Done Lately?
Baltimore lost two of three to the Red Sox at home this weekend, but they’ve already clinched the AL East title and are in full blown “rest everyone” mode. They’re 93-62 with a +116 run differential overall and are pretty much locked into having the second best record in the league. In all likelihood they will face the winner of the AL Central in the ALDS.

Offense
At 4.39 runs per game with a team 105 wRC+, the Orioles have an above-average offense that leads baseball with 202 homeruns. No other team has more than 179. OF Nick Markakis (101 wRC+) and 1B/OF Steve Pearce (162 wRC+) are both day-to-day with shoulder and wrist injuries, respectively. Neither has played for a few days now and they’ll get as much time as needed. C Matt Wieters (Tommy John) and 3B Manny Machado (knee) are both done for the year following surgeries and 1B Chris Davis is out following an amphetamines-related suspension.

Jones. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

Jones. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

Despite all those injuries, manager Buck Showalter still has OF Adam Jones (118 wRC+) and OF Nelson Cruz (137 wRC+) in the middle of his lineup. Cruz has been sitting on 39 homers for two weeks now. It would be cool if he didn’t hit No. 40 in the Bronx. SS J.J. Hardy (93 wRC+) and waiver trade pickup OF Alejandro De Aza (96 wRC+) are among the other lineup regulars you’ll recognize. OF Delmon Young (121 wRC+) is getting more at-bats due to the injuries and ex-Yankee IF Kelly Johnson (80 wRC+) is splitting time at third with ex-Yankees farmhand UTIL Jimmy Paredes (143 wRC+ in limited time).

C Caleb Joseph (78 wRC+) and C Nick Hundley (73 wRC+) are the primary catchers with Wieters out. IF Ryan Flaherty (78 wRC+) and IF Jonathan Schoop (65 wRC+) see plenty of time all around the infield. OF David Lough (89 wRC+) has been the defense-first extra outfielder all season. C Steve Clevenger, 1B Christian Walker, and OF Quintin Berry are the extra September call-ups. The Orioles have 17 position players on the active roster right now, including Markakis and Pearce. I don’t know why, but that seemed like a lot at first glance. Normal by September standards though.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: RHP Michael Pineda (vs. BAL) vs. LHP Wei-Yin Chen (vs. NYY)
Chen, 29, has gotten better in each of his three full seasons in MLB. He has a 3.58 ERA (3.97 FIP) in 29 starts and 173.2 innings this year. His walk rate (1.66 BB/9 and 4.4 BB%) is excellent but his strikeout (6.69 K/9 and 17.9 K%), homer (1.19 HR/9 and 11.1 HR/FB%), and ground ball (40.1%) numbers don’t jump out at you. Righties (.327 wOBA) have been a better against Chen then lefties (.307 wOBA), and he’s been better on the road (.306 wOBA) than at home (.335 wOBA). Low-90s two and four-seamers set up low-80s changeups and sliders. He’ll also throw a few mid-70s curveballs per start. The Yankees have seen Chen just once this year, scoring four runs in five innings way back in April.

Tuesday: RHP Brandon McCarthy (vs. BAL) vs. TBA
Wednesday: RHP Shane Greene (vs. BAL) vs. TBA
Thursday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda (vs. BAL) vs. TBA
The Orioles are currently in the process of setting up their ALDS rotation, so they have not yet announced their starters for this series beyond Chen. RHP Bud Norris (3.62 ERA and 4.19 FIP), RHP Kevin Gausman (3.57 ERA and 3.49 FIP), and RHP Chris Tillman (3.26 ERA and 4.09 FIP) are lined up to start Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, respectively. Tillman was the team’s Opening Day starter and he’s likely to get the ball in Game One of the ALDS on October 2nd, meaning he’d have to start either Friday or Saturday this week to stay on turn. The Yankees might not see him at all this series. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (4.90 ERA and 4.74 FIP) has been banished to the bullpen but recently made a spot start and will probably make another sometime this week so the good pitchers can get lined up for the postseason. Showalter is expected to announce his rotation for the rest of the week sometime today, either before or after tonight’s game.

Britton. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

Britton. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

Bullpen Status
Showalter’s setup man/closer combination features two lefties who can get righties out: LHP Andrew Miller (1.30 FIP) in the eighth and LHP Zach Britton (3.17 FIP) in the ninth. They’ve both been used lightly over the last week or so as the team preps for October. RHP Darren O’Day (3.35 FIP) and RHP Tommy Hunter (3.18 FIP) will also see important innings.

The rest of the bullpen regulars include RHP Brad Brach (3.64 FIP), RHP Ryan Webb (2.71 FIP), LHP T.J. McFarland (3.30 FIP), and LHP Brian Matusz (4.03 FIP). RHP Evan Meek and LHP Joe Saunders are the extra September arms. I suppose Saunders could make a spot start this week, if needed. Webb (11 pitches), Meek (18), and McFarland (12) all pitched yesterday. Check out the status of Joe Girardi‘s bullpen at our bullpen Workload page. Camden Chat is the place to go for everything you need to know about the Orioles.

Categories : Series Preview
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(Andy Marlin/Getty)

(Andy Marlin/Getty)

Even though they’re a long shot to make the postseason, yesterday afternoon’s win over the Blue Jays was one of the most important games of the season for the Yankees. Masahiro Tanaka returned to the rotation after missing more than three months with a partially torn elbow ligament, an injury that usual requires Tommy John surgery. But, because his tear was small (supposedly less than 10%), doctors recommended rehab.

Tanaka threw a handful of bullpen sessions and pitched in three simulated games while rehabbing, but nothing can simulate real game action. It’s one thing to feel good while throwing without much adrenaline against a bunch of teenage minor leaguers in Tampa. It’s another to feel good while facing actual big leaguers looking to do damage in front of a packed stadium with 50,000 fans in attendance.

“I was able to go pretty strong today, so I’m relieved. I feel that I was able to do all of the things that I wanted to do,” said Tanaka to Vince Mercogliano following yesterday’s start. “Obviously (the elbow felt) way better today (compared to the last start before going on the DL). I don’t remember exactly when, but gradually as the game went on, I guess I forgot about it.”

To my untrained eye, Tanaka looked like, well, he looked like Masahiro Tanaka. His fastball velocity was down a bit but I expected that after the long layoff. He didn’t have a whole lot of time to build arm strength. Tanaka not only did not shy away from his breaking pitches — the pitches that supposedly put the most stress on the elbow — he actually shook off Brian McCann to get to his slider and splitter on several occasions. He threw them in situations he would normally throw them. Here’s a quick breakdown of his pitch selection, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

Four-Seamer Sinker Splitter Slider Curve
Pre-Injury % 22.0% 19.3% 25.8% 21.5% 5.4%
Per-Injury Velo. 92.8 91.6 87.4 84.1 74.6
Sunday % 25.7% 27.1% 21.4% 10.0% 15.7%
Sunday Velo. 90.2 90.2 85.5 81 73.2

I wouldn’t obsess over Tanaka’s pitch selection from yesterday’s start since it was just one start. A short 70-pitch start at that. What he lacked in sliders he made up for in curveballs — “My curveballs were pretty sharp today, so that’s why I was throwing that a lot … I wanted to go out there and check all of my pitches,” Tanaka said to Mercogliano — and his four-seamer and splitter usage was in line with the rest of the season. It would have been a red flag if Tanaka had thrown, say, 80% fastballs and just few splitters or sliders, something that may have indicated he was nursing the elbow. That isn’t the case though. If he was trying to protect the elbow in some way, it doesn’t show in his pitch selection.

Tanaka’s biggest issue on the afternoon was his location. This guy was damn near pinpoint with his command earlier in the season, but yesterday his ability to locate was nowhere to be found, especially in the early inning. It did get a little better as the game wore on, though it never got back to what he showed earlier in the season. Tanaka was missing with fastballs by the full width of the plate at times:

Missed the target by thaaat much.

Missed the target by thaaat much.

He missed by a significant amount with several other pitches as well, both side-to-side and up-and-down. It wasn’t every pitch — he hit the glove and dotted the corners a bunch of times as well — but much more often than we saw in any of his pre-injury starts. Elbow problems usually result in poor location — a drop in velocity tends to indicate a shoulder problem — but I think this was simply rust. Tanaka mentioned he didn’t feel all the way back to normal following his last simulated game. The location is something to watch in his next start, sure, but I’m not concerned yet.

Most importantly, Tanaka looked like a healthy pitcher yesterday. He did not appear to be tentative — “He just went after it, the way you’re used to seeing him do,” said pitching coach Larry Rothschild to Brendan Kuty — and he didn’t labor in any way. Tanaka wasn’t taking a lot of time between pitches or anything like that, which pitchers will commonly do if they’re uncomfortable or not 100% physically. He looked like Masahiro Tanaka with bad control, and I think that represents the best case scenario for yesterday given the circumstances. The closer he looks to normal, the better.

Tanaka’s situation is a new experience for everyone. Well, at least to fans. The Yankees claim to have had pitchers in the organization successfully rehab a partial tear like this. We’ve never seen anything like this though. We’re used to seeing a tear — even a partial one — result in Tommy John surgery almost immediately. Everything about Tanaka is unique, from his background to the way he joined the team to his extreme competitiveness, and this injury is no different. Too many pitchers have gone down with Tommy John surgery in 2014, but based on everything we saw yesterday, it looks like Tanaka just might be the pitcher who beats it.

Categories : Pitching
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Record Last Week: 4-3 (20 RS, 22 RA)
Season Record: 80-75 (597 RS, 628 RA, 74-81 pyth. record) 13.0 GB in ALE, 4.5 GB of WC
Opponents This Week: vs. Orioles (four games, Mon. to Thurs.), @ Red Sox (three games, Weds. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?

Categories : Polls
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Six years ago today, the final game at the old Yankee Stadium was played. The Yankees won that game 7-3 over the Orioles. Here’s the box score. Jason Giambi had the last hit and Jose Molina had the last homer at the old ballpark. Andy Pettitte started and Mariano Rivera recorded the final three outs. Derek Jeter gave a memorable speech (video above) and the team made a trip around the warning track after the game. I remember watching it and feeling like they had just won the World Series. It was that kind of ceremony. Never gonna forget that night.

Here is your open thread for the last few hours of the weekend. The ESPN Sunday Night Game kinda stinks, it’s the Reds at the Cardinals (Simon vs. Lynn). The late NFL game is the Steelers and Panthers. Talk about those games, the final game at Yankee Stadium, this afternoon’s win, or anything else right here.

Categories : Open Thread
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Source: FanGraphs

All things considered, Sunday afternoon’s 5-2 win over the Blue Jays might have been the most important game of the Yankees’ season as Masahiro Tanaka returned to the rotation after more than three months on the shelf. He and his right elbow are mighty important to the team going forward. Let’s recap series-winning win:

  • The Return: Tanaka’s return went as well as we could have reasonably expected. He was rusty, particularly with his location, but he didn’t shy away from his splitter or slider (or curveball) and it didn’t look like he was holding anything back, so to speak. Didn’t seem tentative at all. Tanaka ended the day right at 70 pitches (48 strikes, six swings and misses) and his pitching line was fine (5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K), though the performance is secondary to his health. With the caveat that they have to see how he feels in the coming days, Sunday’s return was overwhelmingly positive for the Yankees and Tanaka.
  • Three Taters: The Blue Jays scored a quick first inning run on two singles and a double play, but the Yankees answered right back with a Brian McCann solo homer in the bottom half of the inning. The score remained 1-1 until the fifth inning, when Brett Gardner unloaded on a Drew Hutchison pitch for a solo homer. It was his 17th (!) of the season. Back-to-back doubles in the seventh by Gardner and Derek Jeter created New York’s third run, then the fourth and fifth came off the bat of McCann, who hit his second homer of the game as the next batter. I declare it the most aesthetically pleasing homer of the 2014 season. Here, watch. All three homers were bombs. No doubters.
  • Bullpen: Weirdly, the Yankees’ least effective reliever on the afternoon was Dellin Betances. He allowed a run on a single (Jose Reyes), two stolen bases, and another single (Edwin Encarnacion). Encarnacion’s was off the wall, one of those “he hit it so hard it was a single” jobs. Adam Warren replaced Tanaka in the sixth and stranded a runner with two strikeouts, then threw a perfect seventh as well. His last two outings have been very good. David Robertson pitched around a two-out walk to close out his 38th save. Really hope he gets to 40 for no reason in particular.
  • Leftovers: Gardner made #toomanyhomers history. His solo shot was the 15,000th homerun in Yankees history, easily the most among the 30 clubs (Giants are second with 13,984) … the Yankees hit three homers as a team for the first time in nearly a month, since the makeup game in Kansas City. It’s only their eighth 3+ homer game of the season … Gardner, Jeter, McCann, and Ichiro Suzuki all had two hits apiece. The rest of the lineup went 0-for-16. McCann, Chris Young, Chase Headley, and Frankie Cervelli (two) had the walks.

The box score and video highlights are at MLB.com. FanGraphs has some other stats and ESPN has the updated standings. At this very moment, the Yankees are four games back of the second wildcard spot with seven games to play. Their elimination number is five and FanGraphs has their postseason odds at 0.2%. Big Mike Pineda and Wei-Yin Chen will be on the bump for Monday night’s series opener against the Orioles. There are only four home games left in the season/Jeter’s career, so head over to RAB Tickets if you want to catch any of them live.

Categories : Game Stories
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(Brian Blanco/Getty)

(Brian Blanco/Getty)

After more than three months on the shelf, Masahiro Tanaka returns to the rotation this afternoon. The treatment for his partially torn ligament is complete, so the elbow is as healthy as it’s going to get. This afternoon’s start — as well as his next start in five days — is about testing the ligament in game action. It still might blow out and require Tommy John surgery. If it does, the Yankees want it to happen now rather than next April.

The Yankees are out of the postseason race — they are still mathematically alive, but they’re an extreme long shot — so results don’t matter this afternoon. If Tanaka gets rocked, fine. It’ll suck, but whatever. The healthy of his elbow is the most important thing. If he comes through the start feeling strong and the ligament holds up, then it’s a major win in the grand scheme of things. The Yankees could certainly use some good injury news after these last two seasons. Here is the Blue Jays lineup and here is the Yankees lineup:

  1. CF Brett Gardner
  2. DH Derek Jeter
  3. C Brian McCann
  4. LF Chris Young
  5. 3B Chase Headley
  6. 1B Francisco Cervelli
  7. 2B Stephen Drew
  8. RF Ichiro Suzuki
  9. SS Brendan Ryan
    RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Not the best weather for Tanaka’s return — it’s overcast and humid as hell, plus there is some scattered rain in the forecast throughout the day. Hopefully nothing that causes any kind of delay. The last thing the Yankees need is Tanaka’s first game back to be cut short by the weather. This afternoon’s game will start at 1:05pm ET and you can watch on YES. Enjoy the game.

Updates: Joe Girardi said Derek Jeter will play every game the rest of the season, even if he only starts as the DH … Carlos Beltran (elbow) will not have his surgery until after the season, though it remains unclear if he will be healthy enough to play this last week … Jacoby Ellsbury (hamstring) wants to play again this season, even if the team is eliminated … Chaz Roe was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Tanaka, who was activated off the 60-day DL.

Categories : Game Threads
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  • Sabathia nominated for Roberto Clemente Award, Beltran nominated for Marvin Miller Man of the Year Award
    By

    CC Sabathia has been selected as the Yankees’ nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award, MLB announced. It is given annually to the player who “best exemplifies the game of baseball, sportsmanship, community involvement and the individual’s contribution to his team.” Here are the 30 nominees. Derek Jeter won the award in 2009 and Carlos Beltran won it last year.

    In other news, Beltran is one of six players nominated for the Marvin Miller Man of the Year Award, the MLBPA announced. The award is given annually to the player “whose on-field performance and contributions to his community inspire others to higher levels of achievement.” Mariano Rivera won it last year. Beltran is up against Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Hamilton, Adam LaRoche, and Anthony Rizzo. Congrats to both Sabathia and Beltran. It’s a honor just to be nominated for awards like this.
    · (10) ·


Source: FanGraphs

The little three-game winning streak was fun while it lasted. A rough sixth inning sent the Yankees to a 6-3 loss to the Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon. Let’s recap:

  • Answer Back: Toronto scored a quick run in the first inning but the Yankees rallied to take a 2-1 lead by the fourth. Brian McCann singled in Derek Jeter in the third after Jeter reached on an infield single and moved to second on a wild pitch. Then, an inning later, Frankie Cervelli singled in Chase Headley. They had first-and-third with two outs thanks to singles by Headley and Ichiro Suzuki. Five of eight Yankees reached base against Marcus Stroman at one point spanning the third and fourth innings.
  • Meltdown: After allowing the first inning run, Chris Capuano kept the Blue Jays off the board for the next four innings. Then things completely unraveled in the sixth. A walk (Jose Bautista), an infield single (Edwin Encarnacion), and another walk (Dioner Navarro) loaded the bases with no outs, which usually means bullpen time. Instead, Capuano remained in the game to serve up a two-run ground-rule double to Danny Valencia, erasing the lead. He also stayed in to allow a long sacrifice fly to John Mayberry Jr., stretching the deficit to 4-2. Either Joe Girardi got caught off guard and didn’t have a reliever ready or he gave Capuano way, way too long of a leash at that point in the game.
  • Late Innings: The Jays tacked on some runs with a Bautista solo homer in the seventh and then a walk, a wild pitch, and a single in the ninth. The insurance runs ultimately did not matter even though Jeter doubled in Brett Gardner in the bottom of the ninth. The Yankees did manage to bring the tying run to the plate that inning, but Brendan Ryan struck out and Chris Young flew out. Hard to believe Ryan was allowed to hit in that spot even with Carlos Beltran hurt. Zelous Wheeler or John Ryan Murphy would have been better options. Oh well.
  • Leftovers: Jeter scored the 1,920th run of his career, breaking a tie with Alex Rodriguez and moving him into sole possession of ninth place on the all-time runs scored list … Gardner snapped an 0-for-27 slump with his first inning double. He had another hit later in the game … Ichiro (two), McCann, Headley, Cervelli, and Stephen Drew had their other hits. Headley drew the only walk … Chase Whitley and David Phelps allowed the insurance runs. Esmil Rogers and David Huff threw a scoreless inning each.

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs has some other stats, and ESPN has the updated standings. The Yankees are 4.5 games back of the second wildcard spot with only eight games to play. Their elimination number is five and FanGraphs has their postseason odds at 0.2%. All eyes will be on Masahiro Tanaka in the series finale on Sunday afternoon. He is returning to the mound after missing three months with a partially torn elbow ligament. Drew Hutchison is starting for the Jays. RAB Tickets can get you in the door if you watch to catch that game or any of the other four final home games of the season/Jeter’s career live.

Categories : Game Stories
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  • Carlos Beltran unavailable due to nagging elbow discomfort
    By

    Carlos Beltran was unavailable for today’s game due to continued discomfort in his elbow, Joe Girardi told reporters. I figured he was unavailable as soon as Brendan Ryan was allowed to bat for himself as the tying run in the ninth inning. Girardi said it is “possible” they will shut Beltran down for the remainder of the season. Makes sense. Get the surgery over now. · (15) ·

Here is your open thread for this gorgeous Saturday night. Pretty great weather in New York these last few days. The Mets are playing tonight, MLB Network will air a regional game later on, and there’s a ton of college football on as well. Talk about those games or anything else right here.

Categories : Open Thread
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