Catching situation: Dodgers vs. Yanks

The Dodgers catching situation had a bit of a Yankee flavor to it this winter. It started when the two teams discussed a Francisco Cervelli for Russell Martin swap on the eve of the non-tender deadline. That didn’t work, so the Dodgers let Martin walk. Immediately afterwards they signed Rod Barajas to a one-year, $3.25 million contract. This week the Yankees ended up with Martin at one years and four million, with the opportunity to retain him next year. Who came out ahead here?

Make sure to check out the other WAR comparisons. Also note that Martin’s worst year was only slightly worse than Barajas’s best year — and Barajas’s best year came in 2005. With a mere $750,000 difference in salary, it appears that the Dodgers got hosed — or hosed themselves.

(Though, in fairness, Martin did turn down a $4.2 million contract from the Dodgers. Still, it’s tough to imagine the Dodgers being worse off by tendering Martin a contract and paying him a bit more, than having Barajas and his poor production.)

Then come the backups. Had the trade gone through the Dodgers presumably would have had Cervelli backing up Barajas. Now they have former Yankee farm hand Dioner Navarro backing up Barajas, while the Yankees have Cervelli backing up Martin. Here’s a telling WAR graph for these guys.

Yes, Navarro has been better, but not only has his graph leveled off in the past two years, it has actually declined slightly. Navarro is two years older than Cervelli and has been in the league four more years, but has produced just 3.4 more WAR. In two more years I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Cervelli pass Navarro in WAR, even though the latter has that four-year head start.

This wasn’t a one-on-one deal, so we can’t say that the Yankees won. But given the way the Dodgers’ catching situation played out, I’ll take the Yanks’, even minus Montero, any day.

Open Thread: Ramiro Mendoza

(AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Ah good old Ramiro Mendoza. I’ll admit it, I didn’t really appreciate his work until he was gone and the Yankees’ middle relief when to crap. Ramiro made 277 appearances for the Yanks from 1996 through 2002, including 57 starts, pitching to a 4.08 ERA with 5.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 (taking out intentional walks), making up for the lack of strikeouts by getting grounders with his sinker. He’d give the team one batter, one inning, two innings, or five innings without a problem, the original version of Al Aceves. Knee and shoulder injuries derailed Mendoza’s career after he defected to the Red Sox as a free agent in 2003, though he did make one appearance with the Yankees in 2005, his farewell voyage as a big leaguer. They just don’t make relief help like they used to.

Anywho, here is tonight’s open thread. The Devils, Rangers, and Knicks are all in action, so there should be enough going on to keep you occupied. Talk about whatever your heart desires.

Death of a Dream: Randy Choate signs with the Marlins

Sigh. Free agent lefty reliever Randy Choate signed a two year deal with the Marlins this afternoon, landing a $2.5M total salary plus incentives according to Kenny Rosenthal. Choate, a former Yankee, was the best free agent LOOGY on the market when it comes to actually getting lefties out. I mean, who wouldn’t want a left-handed reliever that held left-handed batters to a .235 wOBA with an 8.9 K/9 and a 64.5% ground ball rate in the AL East over the last two years?

I guess we should all look forward to watching Pedro Feliciano’s homerun rate regress when the Yanks inevitably sign him.

Yanks invite Prior, six others to Spring Training

Isn’t it a little too early to announce Spring Training invites? Either way, the Yankees officially announced the Mark Prior deal today, inviting him and six others to major league Spring Training. Right-handers Brian Anderson and Buddy Carlyle join lefties Andy Sisco and Neal Cotts, and the other two are new to the organization: infielder Doug Bernier and catcher Gustavo Molina. Bernier spent the 2009 season with Triple-A Scranton, putting up a weak .263 wOBA while playing all over the infield. Molina, no relation to the catching Molinas brothers, is a Triple-A lifer that’s failed to crack a .300 wOBA at the level in four of the last five seasons. Both Bernier and Molina are minor league filler, just warm bodies to fill out Scranton’s roster and play late in Spring Training games.

Yanks ‘cautiously optimistic’ Pettitte will return

The “Will He or Won’t He?” saga concerning Andy Pettitte‘s future in the Bronx may be drawing to a conclusion. Jon Heyman reported this afternoon that the Yanks expect Pettitte to decide “within days” if he’d like to return for one final season in uniform. The club, he says, is “cautiously optimistic.” Pettitte’s return would certainly soften the blow of losing out on the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but it’s probably foolhardy to pencil Pettitte in for 33 starts next year. His body has had trouble handling the rigors of a 162-game schedule, and he doesn’t heal as quickly as he used to. Still, Pettitte’s return woud be a welcome one.

The RAB Radio Show: December 15, 2010

There will be plenty of pitching issues to discuss in the next few months, so what better time to start than today? We kick things off with a discussion of Rafael Soriano, a closer who might have a hard time finding a home. There aren’t many clear cut destinations for him after the Angels signed Scott Downs. Could he fit the Yankees’ needs and budget?

There’s an Andy Pettitte tidbit in there, but that post will go up soon enough.

Moving on, it’s time for injured and underrated pitchers. These guys will certainly be Yankees target this off-season. They might only get one on the free agent market, so they must choose wisely. Who appears to be the best bet among them? And if the Yankees don’t think it’s Chien-Ming Wang, what does that say about him?

Podcast run time 40:24

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The obligatory “Injured Pitchers” post

With Cliff Lee officially a member of the Philadelphia Phillies, the Yankees are left trying to salvage their offseason by spreading their money around and shoring up several aspects of their team. There simply aren’t any other high-end starters on the market to go after. The process started with the now completed Russell Martin signing, and today Joel Sherman reported the Yanks will “try to pluck a veteran starter with good stuff but questionable health (off the free agent market) and have him pitch as long and as hard as he can, basically until his arm blows up or a better option comes along.

Those kinds of pitchers are always plentiful on the free agent market, and they’re popular targets in the blogosphere because we dream of them being healthy and returning to what they once were. With Lee off the market and not in New York, it’s inevitable that we’ll have to look at some of these guys as potential targets, so let’s get it out of the way now. I’m going to do something a little different though, instead of actively campaigning for one or two players I’m just going to state the facts and let you decide who’s worth the gamble. Talk about ’em in the comments…

(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

Jeff Francis

Francis is kind of the exception here because he isn’t actually coming off an injury. After missing the entire 2009 season due to shoulder surgery, the 29-year-old lefty did manage to make 19 starts (and one relief appearance) while pitching to a 3.88 FIP in 104.1 innings for the Rockies in 2010. His ERA was ugly (5.00), but we all know that isn’t the best way to judge performance. Francis is a generic soft-tossing command lefty, spotting a fastball, changeup, and curveball on the corners of the plate. He misses just enough bats (8.4% swing-and-miss rate, 5.8 K/9 since 2008) and doesn’t walk many guys (2.6 BB/9 career, removing intentional walks), and he also gets a pretty nice amount of ground balls (~45% over the last few years) as well. Francis’ margin for error is small, but the track record is there.

Brad Penny

The one-time Red Sox whipping boy made nine highly effective starts (3.40 ERA, 1.1 fWAR) for the Cardinals this year before a shoulder strain ended his season. Penny is a known quantity at this point; he’s struck out a touch more than five-and-a-half batters per nine innings over the last four seasons (~7% swings-and-misses) despite having the stuff to do more, and his walk rate has been below three per nine in five of the last seven years. Penny has always been a ground ball guy but took it to the extreme in St. Louis last year (52.8%), completely unsurprisingly given Dave Duncan’s track record. Like Francis, Penny does have World Series experience, and he did not have surgery for his injury, which is always a plus.

Chien-Ming Wang

(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Ah yes, our old friend. Wang, now 30, was last an effective pitcher in June of 2008, when he infamously injured his foot running the bases in Houston. Surgery to repair damage to the capsule in his shoulder followed, and he was unable to reach the bigs for the Nationals in 2010 despite proclamations from his agent. Everyone reading this knows the deal with the Wanger, so I don’t need to get into the specifics. Extreme sinkerballer, lots of weak contact, won’t strike anyone out. Seen it, lived it, got a t-shirt.

Brandon Webb

Webb is the big name of the group, the former Cy Young Award winner than racked up 19.9 fWAR from 2006-2008, the second most in baseball. Now 31, Webb hasn’t pitched in what amounts to two seasons due to labrum damage, and reports out of Instructional League a few weeks ago had him sitting the low-80’s with his once devastating sinker (18.1% fly balls in his career, completely ridiculous). There’s a belief that those reports are overblown in an effort to keep his price down, however. We really don’t know what Webb is capable of right now; I don’t think he can rebound and be the beast (3.23 FIP from ’06-’08, again behind only CC) he once was. If he’s 60% of that guy though, it’d be an upgrade to the back of the Yankees’ rotation. For what it’s worth, Joel Sherman reported today that the Yankees “don’t like him all that much.”

Uh, where's the ball? (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

Chris Young

Young is a rather unique pitcher, relying on extreme deception and size (dude’s 6-foot-10) rather than pure stuff. He missed all but four starts in 2010 due to a shoulder strain, and when he did pitch he averaged just five innings per start with a 3.88 FIP. His always pedestrian fastball dipped into the mid-80’s over the last two years, but he’s so big and hides the ball so well that it looks like he’s releasing the ball ten feet away from the batter. That’s how he’s managed an above average swing-and-miss rate (9.4%) and generally avoided getting clobbered. Young certainly benefited from Petco Park in San Diego, owning a 53% fly ball rate for his career, far and the away the highest in baseball during that time. His margin for error is microscopic these days.

* * *

Remember, these players are looking for one thing: an opportunity. Well, that and money, we can’t forget that. Those five guys are trying to reestablish their value, so they’ll join the team that gives them the best chance to accrue innings and prove they’re healthy and productive so they can go back out on the market next year and cash in. If that means a year with the Nats or Pirates, so be it. Don’t expect the Yanks to be able to sign two or three of them either, the more there are, the less of an opportunity they’ll have.

So which one is your preferred target? Any other that weren’t covered here?