Bullpen management extends beyond one game (or, DMORM)

(Frank Franklin II/AP)

Predictably, the complaints came rolling in last night. Joe Girardi used his second best reliever for a second straight day in order to preserve a four-run lead. When Rafael Soriano went on to essentially blow the game, the outrage was equally predictable. Girardi’s bullpen management had struck again, costing the Yankees a game they seemingly had in the bag.

Yesterday represented the first opportunity fans had to first- and second-guess the manager. It will hardly be the last. A field manager has hundreds, even thousands, of decisions to make every season. It is inevitable that he will screw up on multiple occasions. The better ones make fewer mistakes than their peers, but even the best will blunder and cost their teams games.

Thinking about it in stat nerd terms, this is akin to replacement level. There is a baseline for decision making — that is, there is a certain level of blundering that all managers will reach during the course of the season. We can essentially forget about that, since you can find a random manager on the street who will still make those errors of judgment. A manager’s on-field value lies in his ability to stay as close to that baseline as possible. Let’s call it Decision Making Over Replacement Manager. I think that Girardi’s is quite high.

When we question a manager’s moves, we’re mainly focusing on the micro. That is, the moves we feel are correct count for that game and that game only. Maybe it takes immediate past and immediate future games into account — part of the reason for disliking Girardi’s use of Soriano is that he pitched yesterday, and there’s a game tomorrow — but it doesn’t take into account the management of an entire season. That’s something that Girardi, or any manager, has to consider when he makes his moves. While he’s managing to win the game, he’s also managing to win throughout the season. In the last three years, Girardi has shown that he’s very good with long-term management.

While the bullpens during Girardi’s tenure have typically gotten off to slow starts, they’ve always finished among the best in the league. When we get to long stretches of games in August and September, he always has a fresh, quality reliever to use in a tight spot. That’s because he does a good job of managing each pitcher’s workload throughout the season. This stands in stark contrast to his predecessor, Joe Torre, who went only with his favorites. Questioning his decisions was one thing, because it seemed as though every year he’d tire out his best relievers and ended up with a bare cupboard later in the season. This just has not been the case with Girardi.

This isn’t to say that I agreed with the use of Soriano there. After the game Girardi explained that the idea was to use Soriano in his normal role, the eighth inning, so that he could hand the ball to David Robertson, and not Mariano Rivera, in the ninth. I guess that means he had more faith in Soriano than Robertson to pitch a scoreless inning. You can agree or disagree with that logic — I don’t much like it, for the record. But this is just one of many decisions that go into a season’s worth of bullpen management.

Maybe another manager wouldn’t have made this specific mistake. But he might err in other areas that make it tougher for him to manage an entire 162-game season. During the last three years Girardi has proven that, while he makes odd decisions at inopportune times, in the long view he takes care of his bullpen. That’s all that’s really important. His individual decisions might set us off, but his overall decision making, as proven in three years, has been well above his peers.

If you want some proof, watch another game for an extended stretch and see how their manager deals with bullpen management. Read another team’s blog for a while — we have a growing list of team blogs that we use as a resource. You’ll see plenty of instances where the manager’s decision gets questioned. Yet few of these managers have the track record that Girardi has when it comes to managing a bullpen during a full season. That is, in the long run, Girardi’s DMORM is higher than that of his peers.

When Rafael Soriano showed up on my TV screen last night, I scratched my head. Why use him there, with a four-run lead, when Robertson had been warming up the previous inning? But then I appreciated Girardi’s refusal to take a four-run lead for granted. Then I remembered his long-run track record during the past three years. It all made the decision easier to bear. I might not have liked it. You might not have liked it. But given what he’s done with the bullpen in the last three years, I’m not about to complain about one game. It seems kind of silly, given what we know about the bigger picture.

Yankees manage to grab defeat from jaws of victory in second game against Twins

Bullpens blow games, even the best ones. It’s an unavoidable evil over the course of a 162-game season. If a reliever doesn’t have his best stuff and/or gets hit around a bit, fine it happens. But when the process is wrong, well then I have an issue. The Yankees were cruising for the first seven innings against the Twins on Tuesday, riding a pair of homers to for a four-run lead with their ace on the mound. Three innings later, they walked off the field losers.

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Let’s talk about the bullpen (usage)

We all know what happened. Staked to a four-run lead in the eighth inning, Joe Girardi handed the ball off to Rafael Soriano for reasons unknown. I mean, what part of having a lead that size that late in the game with the bottom of the order due up says “I need to use my $10M+ a year setup man who just pitched yesterday without his normal velocity right now?” Soriano allowed four of the six men he faced to reach base (three on walks), and then David Robertson allowed the tying runs to score on a well-placed bloop double. The bloop happens, I’m okay with that, but the usage of Soriano is a complete head-scratcher.

For whatever reason, Girardi didn’t have the confidence in Robertson to give him the ball to start the inning. In fact, he hasn’t shown much confidence in him at all this season. Robertson’s warmed up in all five games this year (twice in this one) but had only pitched once prior to this game. He wasn’t good enough to start the inning fresh, but he was then deemed worthy of being charged with wiggling out of the bases loaded jam later on. That’s great, that should be Robertson’s role because of his strikeout ability, but you don’t have to wait for those situations to use him.  Unsurprisingly, David’s control was shaky after so much unofficial work over the last few days and it cost them.

“Because he’s our eighth inning guy,” responded Girardi after the game when asked why he used Soriano in that spot. If it’s that simple, then what are they paying him for? A monkey can follow the cookbook. In the end, Soriano has to get those outs, back-to-back days isn’t above and beyond the call of duty. And to make matters worse, he ducked out early and didn’t speak to reporters after the game. If you’re not going to own up to it, there are going to be problems, especially when some of the other guys stood there and took the heat. Weak sauce, Rafi. Very weak sauce.

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Anyway … yay Tex!

Long before the bullpen shenanigans, Mark Teixeira led a first inning offensive assault against Brian Duensing, launching a three-run homer to left after Derek Jeter walked and Nick Swisher singled. It was his fourth of the season and his first from the right side, and it came on a changeup of all things. We’re used to seeing Tex swing over top of those like it’s going out of style. Andruw Jones chipped in a solo homer one inning later, becoming the 13th Yankee since 1961 to homer in his first at-bat for the team. The last to do it? Curtis Granderson last season. Before that? How about Cody Ransom in 2008. Good times.

The 13 homers the Yankees have hit ties the franchise record for the most through the first five games of the season.

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

CC = Carsten in Charge

It tells you something when a pitcher fires seven shutout innings and is visibly annoying with himself. That’s exactly what Sabathia did in this game, limiting the Twins to just two singles (in the same inning, no less) and one walk (in the first) all evening even though he was constantly shaking his head and talking to himself between pitches. He retired the last 17 Twins he faced, carving them up with a steady diet of fastballs (50 four-seamers and 19 sinkers) while mixing in the occasional slider (16), changeup (12), and curveball (seven). Minnesota batters swung-and-missed at five of those changeups, including for strike three twice. It was a vintage performance from the Yankees ace, but it’s a shame he couldn’t get a win out of it. A damn shame.

That about sums it up.


Four runs early, then nothing else the rest of the way. Duensing settled down and completed seven innings, allowing just two singles and a walk in his final five frames. Not for the nothing, the Yankees needed to tack some more on after scoring early runs like that. They can’t just push four across early and expect to coast to the finish like they did on Monday.

Tex and Jones were the clear offensive stars, though Jeter singled and walked (before striking out to end the game) and Swisher singled twice. The rest of the lineup combined to go 1-for-21 (Alex Rodriguez singled) with five strikeouts. That won’t get it done.

Boone Logan has faced eight batters this season and retired just three of them. Hurry back, Pedro. Chances are the only available relievers behind Freddy Garcia tomorrow night will be Joba Chamberlain, Luis Ayala, Bartolo Colon, and Logan. That’s comforting. I’m sure Robertson will warm up anyway.

Make it four straight nights with a new record low attendance at Yankee Stadium; the announced attendance was 40,267.

WPA Graph & Box Score

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs has some other neat stuff. Wheee!!!

Up Next

Garcia makes his long-awaited Yankees debut later tonight against someone New York tried to sign this offseason so they wouldn’t need a guy like Garcia: Carl Pavano. I hope he’s got seven innings in that arm.

Inside the changes to the Great City Subway Race

The Yankees have replaced the B, D and 4 trains with their own subway colors. (Photo by Benjamin Kabak)

When Opening Day dawned at Yankee Stadium last week, fans watching the between-innings entertainment were in for a shock. The Yankees had changed the Great City Subway Race. Instead of featuring the MTA’s familiar 4, B and D trains, the subway cars were now labeled Road Gray, Midnight Blue and Pinstripes. Gone was the connection — albeit a tenuous one — to New York City.

In the ensuing days, fan response has been loud and negative. What started out on my part as an amusing look at the changes has turned into something personal for others. A group dedicated to bringing back the subway designations has popped up on Facebook and already has over 130 members. Others now find the subway race a shell of its former self. It’s just another part of the constant barrage of stadium noise.

Behind the scenes, rumors are flying. At first, it sounded as though the MTA had asked for licensing fees from the Yankees, but as I dug deeper into the behind-the-scenes goings-on, that story changed. In fact, this is a tale that has its origins in the original subway race at the new stadium.

When the Yankees first started the subway race, they asked the MTA for permission to use the transit agency’s intellectual property. The subway bullets, after all, are MTA trademarks, and the authority granted that permission, for free, as long as the Yankees did not attach a sponsor to the race. Here, the story gets a little fuzzy. The Yankees had long had Dunkin Donuts sponsoring the race; the 4 train was frequently slowed by a jelly donut in the tracks. The MTA though didn’t seem to notice a sponsor had signed on until last year when Subway took over.

Following the 2010 season, MTA sources tell me, the authority attempted to reach out to the Yankees to discuss the subway race sponsorship. At no point did the MTA ask the Yankees for money, and one person with whom I spoke said the MTA had no plans to do so. Rather, they were going to ask the Yankees to append a public service announcement to the subway race urging fans to take mass transit to the game. The Yankees though never returned the MTA’s calls, and the authority never had the chance to make this offer.

When reached for a comment, an MTA spokesperson was guarded. “The video race was considered a method to promote taking mass transit to games,” Kevin Ortiz said. ” We are disappointed the Yankees decided to change the look of the trains.” The Yankees had no comment.

So that’s where things stand right now with the subway race. I doubt we’ve heard the end of this, but the Yankees and the MTA appear to be at an impasse. I’m hoping the real subway bullets come back, but in the meantime, I think I’ll root for Pinstripes. It’s a classic look.

Game Five: Andruw’s debut

(AP Photo/David Goldman)

Depending on who you ask, the Yankees have three players right now that should get into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Mariano Rivera are the easy picks, but they aren’t the only guys on the roster with Cooperstown-worthy credentials. As good as CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira are, fourth outfielder Andruw Jones has had a more distinguished career than any of them. From 1998 through 2006 (age 21-29), Jones averaged .270/.347/.513 (.365 wOBA) with 35 homers, 12 steals, and an unfathomable 25.5 defensive runs saved per season. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Unfortunately, Jones is no longer that player. He’s with the Yankees as a spare part, a guy whose sole purpose in life is to spot start against left-handed pitching, a job he may or may not be qualified for. He’s making his first start of the season tonight, adding to a lineup that has tattooed Twins’ starter Brian Duensing in each of the last two postseasons. The Yankees don’t need Andruw to be a cornerstone player, he just needs to take care of business at the bottom of the lineup.

Death, taxes, and the Yankees beating the Twins. The only certainties in life. Here’s the starting lineup…

Derek Jeter, SS
Nick Swisher, RF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Robbie Cano, 2B
Jorge Posada, DH
Russell Martin, C
Andruw Jones, LF
Curtis Granderson, CF

First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm ET, and the game can be seen on YES. Enjoy.

It’s hard out here for a shortstop

Via Jennifer Gould Keil, ongoing construction at the Trump World Tower, where Derek Jeter lives in his $20M pad, was cutting into the Yankee captain’s beauty sleep. So Jeter came up with a sensible solution: he signed a one-year lease on a $15,500-a-month apartment at a different location in the building, away from the construction, that he now sleeps in. Practical, right? I had a similar problem about two years ago, but I just hit up Duane Reade for some ear plugs. I like Jeter’s idea instead.

Gardner’s trouble with the high pitch

During the first four games of the 2011 season we’ve seen something a bit different from Brett Gardner. It’s not just that he’s looked a little more aggressive, but it’s that it appears he’s swinging with a bit more authority. You can notice this especially on outside pitches. Last year he’d invariably slap at those pitches with one hand on the bat. This year he’s keeping both hands in place, and his swings look a bit harder. Maybe that will help in the long run, but for now it has caused him a few problems.

This chart comes from Joe Lefkowitz’s PitchFX tool, and it shows the trouble Gardner has had with any pitches up in the zone. Save for one lonely fly ball, he has done nothing but whiff at and foul off these pitches. At first I guessed that this had something to do with his revamped swing. It can take time to adjust. But looking back at last year might paint the issue differently.

That’s the same chart, only from April through June of 2010. Notice how there are a number of line drives in the upper half of the zone. They’re not predominant, but there are still a fair number of them. There are also a good number of fly balls, and presumably some of them went for hits. Finally, there are relatively few swings and misses. Now let’s move to July and beyond.

The green dots in the upper half of the zone nearly disappear, and ther are plenty more blue dots. We can then overlay that with foul balls.

Now it’s starting to look like an extrapolated version of Gardner’s 2011 chart. That has to be a concern. We know that Gardner’s ailing wrist affected his second half performance, and we know that he had wrist surgery during the off-season. He says he’s fine, and no one has given any indication that anything is wrong. But what we’ve seen from him so far is starting to resemble the second half of 2010.

After looking at this data, I’m just going to hope that Gardner is indeed working on some swing adjustments that will allow him to drive pitches with some more authority. That would go a long way in explaining his inability to do anything with high fastballs. The alternative just isn’t something I want to consider right now. Thankfully, we don’t have the data to make such a conclusion.

Looking at the Double-A and Low-A rosters

The anchor(s) of Trenton's bullpen. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

The minor league season is now just two days away, so the rosters for the four full season affiliates are starting to trickle in. Yesterday we learned that David Phelps will get the ball on Opening Day for Triple-A Scranton, and over the winter I made an attempt to piece together the rest of the roster. Remember, that was back in December, so a lot has changed. I also took a stab at the minor league rotations and previewed the farm system as a whole last month.

Rosters for Double-A Trenton and Low-A Charleston were released yesterday, so let’s dive in and take a look. First up, the Thunder, courtesy of Mike Ashmore

Pitchers: Cory Arbiso, Wilkins Arias, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Steve Garrison, Shaeffer Hall, Fernando Hernandez, Craig Heyer, Kei Igawa, Tim Norton, Naoyo Okamoto, Graham Stoneburner, and Pat Venditte.

The Yankees signed Hernandez and Okamoto as minor league free agents back in February and October, respectively. The starting rotation is pretty clear cut with Banuelos, Betances, Garrison, Hall, and Stoneburner, and there’s a good mix of lefties and righties in the bullpen. Hernandez might be the de facto closer so Heyer and Venditte can pitch multiple innings in middle relief as part of their development. One of these guys has to go, since the Thunder won’t be carrying 13 pitchers on a 24-man roster, and I suspect it’ll be Norton.

Catchers: Austin Romine and Myron Leslie.

Infielders: Corban Joseph, Addison Maruszak, Yadil Mujica, and Jose Pirela.

Outfielders: Cody Johnson, Austin Krum, Ray Kruml, Melky Mesa, Jack Rye, and Damon Sublett.

Johnson was acquired from the Braves in November for cash considerations, and Mujica came on board a little more than a month ago. Baseball America ranked Johnson as Atlanta’s ninth best prospect before the 2010 season, calling him a “minor league version of Adam Dunn.” He owns a .233 ISO, a 10.0% walk rate, and a 39.0% strikeout rate for his career. I suspect he’ll see more time at DH and first base than in the outfield though, since his defensive value is nil.

Romine returns after posting a .328 wOBA last year, the right move for him after he wore down late in the season. Melky Mesa won the Florida State League MVP last year after putting up a .378 wOBA with 19 homers and 31 steals while playing center field. Those two figure to bat three-four in the lineup with Johnson providing protection in the five-hole. Krum (64), CoJo (58), and Pirela (57) ranked one-two-three in the system in walks last year, and I get the feeling that the first two will bat ahead of Romine & Co. Sublett provides some nice flexibility since he can play the outfield or the infield in a pinch. David Adams won’t be ready to start the season, he’s currently battling plantar fasciitis.

Heathcott and Murphy aren't the only guys to watch in Charleston this year. (Photo via Andy in Sunny Daytona)

Let’s move on to Low-A Charleston, with the roster coming via milb.com

Pitchers: Manny Barreda, Dan Burawa, Nathan Forer, Mike Gipson, Shane Greene, Tommy Kahnle, Fred Lewis, Rich Martinez, Zach Nuding, Mikey O’Brien, Wilton Rodriguez, Kramer Sneed, and Nik Turley.

It’s definitely a veteran-laden staff, in that most of these guys were drafted out of some kind of college (either four-year or JuCo). The only exceptions are Barreda (HS), Martinez (IFA), O’Brien (HS), Rodriguez (IFA), and Turley (HS). The Yankees have emphasized power arms in recent years, and this staff shows it. Nuding is a major sleeper after signing for $265,000 as a 30th round pick last year; his fastball has been clocked as high as 97, though he’s maxed out physically at 6-foot-4 and 265 lbs. Greene is another hard thrower and was the ace of last year’s Short Season Staten Island club. Those two plus O’Brien and Turley will make up four-fifths of the rotation, and the other spot could go to any one of Forer, Gipson, Lewis, or Sneed. Barreda, Burawa, and Kahnle are arguably the three best relief pitching prospects in the system, and all three offer big-time fastballs. Again, one of these guys is going to have to go because of roster limitations, maybe Rodriguez.

Catchers: Jeff Farnham, J.R. Murphy, Gary Sanchez.

Infielders: Kelvin Castro, Anderson Feliz, Jose Mojica, Kyle Roller, Rob Segedin, and Jose Toussen.

Outfielders: Kelvin DeLeon, Ramon Flores, Slade Heathcott, and Eduardo Sosa.

New manager Aaron Ledesma (former Triple-A Scranton third base coach) is going to have his work cut out for him with the lineup, just by making sure everyone gets playing time. Murphy and Sanchez will presumably do the catcher-DH dance that Jesus Montero and Romine enjoyed a few seasons ago, likely relegating Flores to first base so he plays every day. There’s also a chance Murphy moves around (he played third and some outfield in Instructional League last fall), but that doesn’t really clear up the logjam. Segedin will definitely play everyday at the hot corner, and masher Kyle Roller (.362 wOBA for Staten Island last year) is probably going to get stuck on the bench since DH and first base figure to be occupied by actual prospects. It’s a good problem to have, but it’ll take some creativity. Again, someone has to go because of the roster size, and I’m guessing it’ll be Toussen.

The process of elimination tells me that first rounder Cito Culver and fellow 2010 draft picks Mason Williams, Angelo Gumbs, Gabe Encinas, Taylor Morton, Ben Gamel, Tyler Austin, and Evan Rutckyj are staying in Extended Spring Training and will then be assigned to Staten Island or the rookie level Gulf Coast League when the seasons start in June. A (finally) healthy Abe Almonte, Rob Lyerly, Luke Murton, DeAngelo Mack, Kyle Higashioka, Jairo Heredia, Scottie Allen, Sean Black, and Chase Whitley seem like safe bets for High-A Tampa. Ditto Bradley Suttle, who will be repeating the level after last year’s .348 wOBA. That’s a shame, but it’s better than being released.