Open Thread: Maybin on the move

(AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez)

Apparently it’s “let’s forget all about that Miguel Cabrera trade” weekend in Florida. After dealing Andrew Miller yesterday, the Marlins traded the other key piece in Miggy haul today, sending Cameron Maybin to the Padres for a pair of relievers. Righty Burke Badenhop (3.67 FIP in 67.2 IP this year) is the lone survivor of the Cabrera trade, the other five players are all elsewhere now. How about that.

My quick take: I like the move for both sides, more for San Diego though. They have bullpen pieces to spare, and Maybin’s still only 23 if you can believe it. Lots of talent, and it’s worth a shot to see if he can figure it out on your team. Florida needed bullpen help, and the two guys they got are promising. Ryan Webb has a great arm, but his stuff is so lively that he has trouble controlling it. Mujica got lost in the Padres bullpen given some of he other guys they had in there, but struck out 72 and walked six (!!!) in 69.2 innings this year. The deal makes sense for both sides, I’d just rather be getting Maybin.

Anyway, here’s the nightly open thread. Both the Nets and Isles are playing, and of course there’s a zillion college football games on. Talk about whatever, enjoy.

Yankees interested in John Buck?

Via Buster Olney (Insider req’d), the Yankees have some interest in free agent catcher John Buck, but they’re unlikely to offer him more than a one-year deal given the young catching they have coming up through the system. With Jorge Posada expected to take over as the full-time designated hitter, having a veteran catcher around to provide insurance behind Jesus Montero and Frankie Cervelli would be a wonderful thing. That said, Buck is going to try to cash in on the best year of his career (2.9 fWAR) as he should, so there’s a next-to-zero chance that he’ll settle for one year.

If anything, I expect the Yanks to sign some veteran to a minor league deal to stash in Triple-A, similar to Chad Moeller last year. There’s also a very real possibility that they’re trying to drive up the price for the Red Sox, who have legit interest in Buck.

Easy big fella!

Murray/The Star-Ledger

I’m as big a fan of Jesus Montero as there is.  I’m glad the Cliff Lee trade didn’t go through.  I’m glad they didn’t trade him for Roy Halladay.  I have not seen him catch in person though I think the Yankees should try him at catcher until they’re 100% sure he either can or can’t handle the position.  As bullish as I am on Montero, Bill James’ 2011 projections for him just seem insane.  If you haven’t seen yet, James predicts a .285/.348/.519 line with 21 HR’s.  Yes, that’s in the major leagues.

How realistic is this?  First, considering this in a perspective solely to Montero, that line is eerily similar to his 2010 AAA line of .289/.353/.517 line with 21 HR’s.  So James prediction essentially says Montero will repeat his numbers as a 20 year old getting his first taste AAA as a 21 year old getting his first taste of the major leagues.  For all of us who followed Montero this year, we know that he got off to a horrible start and a ridiculously hot finish.  While the slow start is  certainly a possibility (and maybe even a probability) in the major leagues, is there any way Montero would go on a tear like he did last year, hitting .351/.396/.684 after the All Star break?  It took a run like that just to land at his final AAA line, and I can’t see that type of production in the major leagues over such a long period of time.  That’s Pujolsian.  So I’d say for Montero to approach his AAA line in the majors in 2011, he’d have to be pretty consistently awesome for 6 months (with the expected normal peaks and valleys) as a 21 year old rookie catcher, in New York, playing on a team that expects to win the World Series.   Good luck with that.

How realistic is Montero’s projection in a historical context?  Since 1901 how many 21 year old (or younger) catchers have ever slugged over .500 while catching at least 100 games?  Answer: none.  Stretch that out to 22 years old and you get two catchers:  Johnny Bench in 1970 which was his 3rd year in the league and Brian McCann in 2006 in his first full season, though he was not a rookie.  Even going out to the age of 23 there are only 4 more catchers who slugged .500 or greater (Nokes, Carter, Hartnett, Mauer) at such a young age.  And yet, James projects Montero is to slug .517 as a 21 year old rookie.  Opening this comparison up to all positions there have been 30 seasons (by 23 players) since 1901 to slug .500 or greater at age 21 or younger, again none of them catchers.  The list literally is chock full of Hall of Famers as you might expect.  Even if James’ projection for Montero were based on him solely DH’ing, you can still see just how historic his line would be.

I am pretty sure that Montero will not reach James’ lofty projections and it’s unfair to expect him to. That will not make him a bust, overrated or a disappointment.  Let’s all acknowledge that now.  If somehow Montero makes history and hits those projections we will all be beyond thrilled.  I can’t wait to see Montero’s first at-bat in the majors and expect to enjoy the ride, I just want to keep things in perspective, which I simply feel James projections do not do.

Pettitte: ‘It would be one more year and that would be it’

Via, Andy Pettitte indicated that if he does in fact come back and play in 2011, that it would be his final season. “I’m just going to wait and see what my heart wants me to do,” said the lefty. “Right now, I can tell you my heart’s right here in Deer Park.  If something happens and I play one more year that would be it. It would be one more year and that would be it.”

I can’t imagine there’s anything left that Andy wants to accomplish after the career he’s had, so hopefully he comes back for next season and if nothing else, gets a proper send off. While I would understand if he wanted to call it quits now, we all want him back for selfish reasons. Hopefully he does.

Open Thread: Boston adds an arm

(AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Via MLBTR, the Red Sox swapped lefty reliever Dustin Richardson for former sixth overall pick Andrew Miller this evening, reuniting Miller with his UNC running mate Dan Bard. The big lefty has been a bit of wreck as a pro (5.95 BB/9 career), not coincidentally after the Tigers rushed him to the big leagues a few weeks after being drafted in 2006 (he debuted against the Yanks). I wrote a post at MLBTR a few weeks ago saying that I expected Florida to either trade or non-tender Miller this winter, and sure enough they did. He was intriguing as a non-tender guy on a cheap contract, but through arbitration he’s going to pull down something like $2M. Eh. It’s also the second year in a row that Boston acquire a former Marlins’ top prospect; last year they grabbed Jeremy Hermida. That worked out rather crappily.

Well, anyway, here’s your thread for the night. Both the Devils and Knicks are in action, but talk about whatever your heart desires.

For the Yanks, Carl Crawford just doesn’t make sense

Carl Crawford is set to grab millions of dollars this winter. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

In the 1971 film version of Willie Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, Veruca Salt, the most spoiled the children who found golden tickets, belts out an ode to greed. “I want the whole world,” she sings. “I want it now.”

To be a Yankee fan the 21st Century is to embrace Veruca Salt’s attitude. Our favorite team is the most successful in the game’s history, and it is positioned as the leader in the biggest market in sports. It has more money to spend than anyone else and do so with abandon, covering up mistakes with dollars in a quest to win. As long as baseball’s financial structure doesn’t limit the Yanks’ spending, they’re not doing anything wrong.

But within that construct is the need to spend wisely. The Yankees might have more money than everyone else, but they still seemingly have a budget. This is a point seemingly lost on many, and nothing has highlighted that belief in the reams of dollars more than this off-season. First, we’ve seen people call for Derek Jeter to get paid whatever he wants, but as Joel Sherman explained this morning, the Yanks and Jeter have to come to deal that makes sense for both parties. They can’t sacrifice winning — still their primary goal — at the expense of one player, and they should try to make the most out of their dollars.

The other example is even better. Based upon a report in The Post that says the Yankees have “reached out” to Carl Crawford’s agent, the clamor for Crawford has grown a little louder. It’s tempting to demand Crawford in that Veruca Salt way. He is a premier offensive player who had the good fortune, like Mark Teixeira, of hitting free agency while 28. The team that signs him will end up with a few years of decline at the end of the contract but will get Carl Crawford on offense and defense in his prime.

The Yankees know Carl Crawford well. He’s played 138 regular season games against them and has hit .301/.329/.419 with 47 stolen bases in 56 attempts. He plays a mean left field, and as R.J. Anderson explored a year ago, Crawford will get and deserve a deal in excess of $100 million. Since the Angels seem willing to spend that much, Crawford will probably wind up there. But what of New York?

The Yankees’ outfield was a great source of value for the team last year. Based on Fangraphs’ WAR valuation, the entire starting outfield put up a combined 13.1 WAR valued at $52.2 million. Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson combined to make a whopping $12.8 million. While those totals will rise in 2011, there’s a very good chance that Carl Crawford will be making more than Yanks’ three Opening Day outfielders combined.

Now Crawford, over the last two seasons, has exploded into a high-production player. He posted a 5.7 WAR in 2009 and a 6.9 WAR in 2010. He’s doing all he can to earn and deserve that large contract. But if Brett Gardner, who posted a 5.4 WAR and made $450,000 in 2010, can continue to be a 3-4 win player, and if Crawford is making $19-$22 million next year while maintaining a 5-6 win pace, the Yankees would be paying a whopping premium — somewhere around $17-$19 million — for an improvement of two wins. In economic terms, it would be an inefficient use of resources to sign Crawford, and he doesn’t address a need the Yankees have going into 2011.

The Yanks have clear needs for next year. They need another starter, maybe two, and they want a left-handed reliever. They don’t need an outfielder when they already have three of the top outfielders in the American League. Even for a team with resources as seemingly unlimited as the Yankees, they don’t need to embody Veruca Salt every time a free agent comes a-knockin’.

Yanks still don’t know how many years Mo wants

Via Ken Rosenthal, Mariano Rivera‘s camp still has not informed the Yankees if the G.O.A.T. is seeking a one- or two-year deal. Either way I don’t believe it will be an issue, but common says tells you that you’d prefer to keep the commitment as short as possible with a guy that will turn 41 years old in just 17 days. If nothing else, this tells us how for along the two sides are in the negotiation process, meaning not far along at all.

Rosenthal also mentions that the Yanks expect Kerry Wood to test the closer’s market. Saves equal money people, both now and in the future. It’s only smart for Wood to see what’s out there.