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Ranking the 40-Man Roster: Nos. 11-14

January 26, 2015 by Mike Axisa 108 Comments

Over these next two weeks we’re going to subjectively rank and analyze every player on the Yankees’ 40-man roster — based on their short and long-term importance to the team — and you’re inevitably going to disagree with our rankings. We’ve already covered Nos. 15-16, 17-19, 20-25, 26-31, and 32-40.

Every team seems to have one of them, but the Yankees have more than most. The aging, past-prime former star who is making still making star money. The Yankees have done a lot of high-end shopping over the years, paying big bucks across a lot of years to players who were, at one time, cornerstones of the roster.

That isn’t the case anymore. Nos. 11-14 in our 40-man roster rankings series includes four ex-stars on the downside of their careers, who the team is still counting on to some extent in 2015. All those big seven and eight (and ten!) year contracts have come to a head at the same time. To the next batch of players …

No. 14: Alex Rodriguez

2015 Role: DH, at least at first. Maybe even part-time DH. The Yankees have made it clear A-Rod will have to earn his playing time and show he is able to contribute if he wants a regular role. They’ve spent the winter adding backup plans at third base and at DH, so the team doesn’t expect a whole lot. The Yankees are stuck with Alex though, and since they’re paying him all that money, they’re going to see if he has anything left.

Long-Term Role: More of the same, unfortunately. Like it or not, Rodriguez is owed $64M these next three seasons — not to mention his five $6M home run bonuses, the first of which is only six dingers away — and the Yankees aren’t going to eat that money just to make him go away. Not as long as there’s a chance of recouping a big chunk of his salary via insurance (if he gets hurt) or another performance-enhancing drug suspension.

So what’s the best case scenario here? I suppose it’s A-Rod hitting well enough — not like peak A-Rod, but maybe something like .270/.330/.420? — to deserve a regular lineup spot while showing enough mobility to play third base on occasion. That’s about it. The worst case scenario is that he’s cooked and not worth a roster spot, in which case the Yankees will probably stick him on the DL every time he feels the slightest twinge. What a mess.

No. 13: Carlos Beltran

2015 Role: Middle of the order bat, hopefully. The Yankees want Beltran to produce at the plate first and foremost. His defense in right is suspect at best and disastrous at worst, and I expect the team to mitigate the damage by using Chris Young in right field in the late innings of close games. Most importantly, they need Beltran to hit. For average, for power, the works.

Beltran had a bone spur removed from his elbow this offseason after playing through it for most of 2014. He absolutely mashed at the start of the year, but once the bone spur flared up, Beltran had no impact the plate. Hopefully having a healthy elbow means he will produce like he did before getting hurt going forward. That guy was really good.

Long-Term Role: Beltran is signed for another two seasons at $15M annually — unlike the other players in this post, the Yankees didn’t give him a 7+ year contract, just a three-year contract at age 36 — so he isn’t going anywhere. Joe Girardi is going to have to juggle DH at-bats between A-Rod and Beltran, which might not be all that difficult since both are known to visit the DL from time to time. Again, his role is middle of the order hitter. Both now and next year. If Beltran is unable to produce in that role, he doesn’t have a whole lot to offer to the Yankees.

No. 12: Mark Teixeira

2015 Role: Everyday first baseman and middle of the order power bat. Unlike Beltran, Teixeira is a two-way player who is still an asset in the field. In fact, he might be more valuable in the field than at the plate these days. Teixeira put up a .216/.313/.398 (100 wRC+) batting line with 22 homers last season, though that was split into 17 homers and a 125 wRC+ in the first half and five homers with a 62 wRC+ in the second half. He fell off big time after the All-Star break.

Teixeira missed just about the entire 2013 season following wrist surgery and there’s at least some hope he’ll improve at the plate as he gets further away from the procedure. Wrist injuries are known to sap power for quite some team even after the player is cleared to play. Teixeira said he wasn’t strong enough last year, hence the second half fade, so he started his offseason workouts earlier this winter. That sounds nice but it may not mean anything at his age. His offense has been trending down for years, after all. We know Teixeira can still play a mean first base. But his offense is a major question.

Long-Term Role: More of the same. Teixeira is entering year seven of his eight-year contract and will continue to play first base and bat somewhere close to the middle of the order. Aside from Brian McCann, he is the team’s best power source, so at a minimum the Yankees would like to see some dingers out of Teixeira while they ride out the remainder of his contract. They acquired a nice backup plan in Garrett Jones — better than the “we’ll play anyone at first base” approach they had last year, anyway — and that was necessary given Teixeira’s continually mounting injury problems. He’s no longer an impact player, but the Yankees still need something out of him.

No. 11: CC Sabathia

2015 Role: Innings eater, if the Yankees are lucky. Sabathia’s days as an ace are almost certainly over, and at this point it’s unclear if he can even be counted on to chew up innings. A degenerative knee condition limited him to only eight starts last season, and eventually Sabathia needed a clean-up procedure, which was a positive only because he didn’t need a much more serious microfracture surgery.

The thing is, even when he was healthy in 2013, Sabathia wasn’t any good, pitching to a 4.78 ERA (4.10 FIP) in 211 innings. The innings are nice, the Yankees want a lot of innings from their erstwhile ace this coming season, but not when he’s allowing runs at that rate. Best case scenario, Sabathia replaces the 2014 version of Hiroki Kuroda, pitching to a league average-ish ERA and taking the ball every fifth date. Anything more would be gravy.

Long-Term Role: There are two years plus a vesting option left on Sabathia’s contract, so he’ll potentially be around through 2017. (The vesting option is based on the health of his shoulder, not his knee.) Three more years of the 2013-14 version of Sabathia would be very bad. The Yankees need him to salvage these next few years by at least staying healthy and eating innings every fifth day, even if he is nothing more than the de facto fifth starter.

If you want a reason why Sabathia might be effective this year, it’s that his strikeout (9.39 K/9 and 23.0 K%), walk (1.96 BB/9 and 4.8 BB%), and ground ball (48.3%) rates were all excellent before he went down with the knee injury last year. If he repeats those rates — they aren’t out of line with his 2011-13 performance — then he’ll have a better chance of keeping runs off the board. Sabathia is no longer an ace, but he is under contract for at least two more years, and the Yankees would like him to be a reliable part of their rotation during that time. Not want, really. Need.

Coming Tuesday: Nos. 6-10. Five veteran players, including three position players expected to contribute both at the plate and in the field.

Fan Confidence Poll: January 26th, 2015

January 26, 2015 by Mike Axisa 160 Comments

2014 Record: 84-78 (633 RS, 664 RA, 77-85 pythag. record), did not qualify for postseason

Weekend Open Thread

January 23, 2015 by Mike Axisa 2,058 Comments

Happy Friday, everyone. Pitchers and catchers report only four weeks from today, and that’s pretty cool. I’m going to be out of town the next few days, so unless there’s some sort of breaking news, I don’t plan to post anything this weekend. Here are some links to get you by:

Over at CBS, we’re in the middle of a fun series looking at the bests and worsts in the history of each franchise. Best and worst teams, trades, uniforms, etc. All sorts of fun stuff. Here is the Yankees post. I didn’t write it and I disagree with Carl Pavano being the worst free agent signing. It’s this ugly A-Rod contact, hands down.
Jonah Keri wrote about the upstart Marlins, who cycled between being awful and winning the World Series the last two decades. The team finally appears to be in position to have sustained success thanks not only to Giancarlo Stanton, but to a deep and well-rounded core of 20-somethings with their best years ahead of them.
At the FanGraphs community blog, a user wrote about the adjustments Brandon McCarthy made after being traded to the Yankees and how they might apply to Nathan Eovaldi. The team tweaked McCarthy’s pitch selection a bit and also got him to pitch inside more, especially to righties.
And finally, Jeff Long looked at Rays lefty Jake McGee, who has emerged as an elite reliever despite throwing almost nothing but fastballs. From July 9th through September 20th last year, McGee threw 473 fastballs out of 476 total pitches, and had a 2.37 ERA (2.14 FIP) with 40 strikeouts and seven walks in 30.1 innings. It’s a classic “it’s so good, you know it’s coming and you still can’t hit it” pitch.

Use this thread to talk about whatever’s on your mind this weekend. The Yankees, the NHL All-Star Game, college hoops, the Pro Bowl (lol), anything. Have at it.

Braves claim Eury Perez off waivers from Yankees

January 23, 2015 by Mike Axisa 68 Comments

The Braves have claimed outfielder Eury Perez off waivers from the Yankees, the team announced. The Yankees designated Perez for assignment last week to clear a 40-man roster spot for Stephen Drew.

Perez, 24, was claimed off waivers from the Nationals in September. He went 2-for-10 with a stolen base and three strikeouts for New York late last season and actually started two games in center field in the final series against the Red Sox, after the Yankees were eliminated from postseason and while Jacoby Ellsbury was nursing an ankle injury.

The Braves have added a ton of former Yankees this offseason, including outfielder Zoilo Almonte, infielder Corban Joseph, and lefties Francisco Rondon and Manny Banuelos. Zoilo might hit cleanup for them this year. Gordon Blakeley, a long-time scout with New York, left the Yankees for a job in Atlanta’s front office this winter. Maybe he’s behind all of this.

RAB Live Chat

January 23, 2015 by Mike Axisa 4 Comments

Ranking the 40-Man Roster: Nos. 15-16

January 23, 2015 by Mike Axisa 167 Comments

The Yankees have a recent reputation for being a poor player development team, and most of it is deserved. The only above-average players they have produced (and kept) since Robinson Cano arrived in the big leagues are Brett Gardner and a pair of relievers (Dellin Betances and David Robertson). The farm system hasn’t given the big league club enough help these last eight years or so. No doubt about it.

But, the Yankee do have a knack for producing complementary players, and we’re going to look at two of them in this post, the latest in our Ranking the 40-Man Roster series. One is a pitcher with two years of big league time under his belt — a reliever, of course — and the other a position player about to get his first extended taste of MLB action. To the next two spots …

No. 16: Adam Warren

2015 Role: Versatile reliever. As we saw last year, Joe Girardi is willing to use Warren in just about any situation and for multiple innings if needed. He’s at his best as a one-inning guy because he can air it out and use his best fastball, though Warren has the stuff to go two and sometimes three innings as well. David Carpenter is a pure one-inning guy and Betances could end up closing, meaning Warren will have an important role bridging the gap between the starter and late-inning relievers.

Of course, the Yankees are bringing Warren to Spring Training as a starting pitcher, and, given all the injury concerns in the rotation, you don’t have to try too hard to envision him as a starter at some point this year. I like Warren most in short relief but there simply might not be any better options for the rotation. If it comes to that, hopefully he can use what he learned in the bullpen and the confidence he’s built to be an effective starter every fifth day. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that.

Long-Term Role: More of the same, that versatile reliever and perpetually discussed rotation option. Remember last year, when every time a starter got hurt, Warren was always mentioned as a possible replacement? I don’t think that will be limited to 2014. Something tells me we’re going to hear that a lot these next few years.

Warren is entering his third and final pre-arbitration year, so he won’t qualify for free agency until after the 2018 season. It seems unlikely he will rack up saves, meaning his salary won’t balloon out of control during his arbitration years, and there’s no reason to think Warren will become a non-tender candidate down the road. If he starts and pitches well enough to earn a nice salary, good! The Yankees will happily pay if he turns into a reliable starter.

No. 15: John Ryan Murphy

2015 Role: Backup catcher. The Yankees traded Francisco Cervelli early in the offseason to clear the way for Murphy, so the job is more or less being handed to him. Yeah, I suppose the out of options Austin Romine could beat him out for the job in camp, but that seems so unlikely. Everything the Yankees have done over the last year or so suggests the job is Murphy’s. Not giving Romine a September call-up* seems pretty telling.

* Romine was eventually called up in the middle of September when Cervelli got hurt. Murphy was the guy called up to be the third catcher on September 1st, however.

Long-Term Role: I think it’s starting catcher. Either for the Yankees or another team. We should never rule out a trade, and, as a young catcher with a promising bat and excellent defensive chops, Murphy is a pretty desirable piece. The Yankees would have no trouble finding an interested team if they made him available. Clubs usually go to great lengths to secure a young backstop.

There’s a clear … well, clear-ish path for Murphy to take over as the starting catcher in New York. Brian McCann has four years left on his contract, but he’ll turn 31 next month and he has a ton of innings behind the plate on his legs. He’s been a starting big league catcher since age 22, remember. At some point the Yankees will have to scale back McCann’s workload, either by sticking him first base, at DH, or simply on the bench more regularly, and Murphy is in position to take those extra at-bats.

Gary Sanchez, who ranked 18th on this list, is coming up right behind Murphy and is scheduled to start the year in Triple-A. He has much more offensive potential but isn’t close to the same level of defender, and the Yankees absolutely prioritize defense behind the plate. That gives Murphy a pretty big advantage when it comes to sticking with the team long-term and eventually taking over as the number one catcher. There’s nothing sexy about being the backup catcher, but it’s a start for Murphy, who could stick with the team for several years.

Coming Monday: Nos. 11-14. Four former stars on the downside of their careers who are signed for big bucks for another two or three seasons.

Mailbag: Strasburg, Kendrick, Shields, Moncada, Lee

January 23, 2015 by Mike Axisa 235 Comments

There are 14 questions and 13 answers in this week’s mailbag. I feel like these things get longer and longer each week. Send us questions via the “For The Mailbag” form in the sidebar at any time.

Lonnie asks: Any chance the Yankees could go after Strasburg? The Nats would want proven stars … would a package built around Betances and Sanchez/Murphy get it done? Maybe throw in Refsnyder as well?

Oh I’m certain the Yankees will at least make a call about Stephen Strasburg (and all of the Nationals starters) if they haven’t already. Aside from not being nine feet tall, Strasburg fits everything the Yankees look for in a starter — velocity, strikeouts, control of the strike zone, and ground balls. I mean, every team looks for that in a pitcher, but the Yankees really seem to emphasize the velocity and control part. They didn’t just randomly target Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi on a whim, you know.

Anyway, I think Lonnie answered his own question. The Nationals are the ultimate win now team and they’re going to want proven players in return, not a reliever and a handful of prospects. As good as Dellin Betances is and as promising as Gary Sanchez/John Ryan Murphy and Rob Refsnyder look, that’s not even close to what it’ll take to get two years of a 26-year-old ace. The Yankees would do that in a heartbeat. A ~~half-season~~ season and a half of David Price got a young big league starter, a young big league infielder, and a very good shortstop prospect, for example. I’m not sure the Yankees have the pieces to get Strasburg. They don’t have that potential star young MLB ready player to give up.

Will asks: Would Marco Scutaro make any sense for the Yankees?

Not at this point, no. Scutaro, who I just learned has the same birthday as me (different years!), was designated for assignment by the Giants earlier this week. He played only five games last year due to back problems and had another pretty serious back surgery last month — they had to fuse two vertebrae together — which will keep him out for roughly six months. So Scutaro won’t even be able to play until June at the earliest. Since he is 39 and we’re talking about a serious procedure, chances are his rehab will extend longer than that. There’s a chance he’s already played his final MLB game.

Adam asks: Does Kyle Kendrick make sense for the Yanks? If no … why?

The Yankees do need pitching but I’m not sure they’re desperate enough to outbid teams for Kendrick. The 30-year-old had almost identical 2013 and 2014 seasons resulting in a 4.65 ERA (4.31 FIP) with good walk (2.46 BB/9 and 6.3%) and ground ball (46.9%) rates but an awful strikeout rate (5.46 K/9 and 13.9 K%). If you remove opposing pitchers, Kendrick has struck out only 13.0% of batters faced these last two years. That’s really, really bad. He has no out pitch. The only thing Kendrick has to offer is innings, but they aren’t quality innings. People like to talk about guys being NL pitchers, well Kendrick is the classic example.

Sam asks: It is FanFest season around the Majors and I always wonder why the Yankees don’t hold one. Is it cost or are there too many fans to accommodate? Does the club feel it’s unnecessary? I’d like the chance to meet some present and future players. I need a Greg Bird autograph now — so what gives?

I honestly have no idea why the Yankees don’t do anything like this. They’re a blast and I’m sure teams make a decent amount of money from them. (If they didn’t make money, they probably wouldn’t do it.) The Yankees don’t do a whole lot to cultivate young fans and maybe that’s because they think the Yankees #brand speaks for itself. I doubt the marketing folks think like that though. The Yankees aren’t the only team to not do some kind of caravan or FanFest event, but it would be really cool if they did. They draw nothing but positive reviews around the league.

Kevin asks: If James Shields really is in the 4-year, $80 million range shouldn’t the Yankees jump all over that?

I haven’t heard he’s come down that far just yet. I think the Yankees are concerned not so much by the total dollars or years or anything like that, but with buying too much decline. A seven-year deal for 30-year-old Max Scherzer and a four-year deal for 33-year-old James Shields takes you through their age 37 seasons, except with Scherzer you’re getting more peak years. Shields is very good and I think he’ll age better than Scherzer (I base that on nothing tangible, just a hunch, really), though if you give a 33-year-old with that many miles on his arm four years, you’re buying nothing but downside. If the Yankees were a no doubt contender looking to put themselves over the top, I think signing Shields would make more sense.

Vinny asks: Regarding Scherzer’s contract: do the deferred payments affect the luxury tax hit in any way?

No, Scherzer’s luxury tax hit is based on the average annual value of his contract, not when the money is actually paid out. So his seven-year, $210M contract comes with a $30M tax hit even though he will really make $15M for the next 14 years (!). According to Cot’s, the Nats are up around $160M in payroll for luxury tax purposes with Scherzer on board, so they aren’t close to the $189M luxury tax threshold. (They have a freaking ton of money coming off the books after the season.) If deferring money reduced how much a player counts against the luxury tax, everyone would be doing it. MLB won’t let teams get off that easy.

Ian asks: If you had to guess, what would A Rod, CC, and Teixeira have gotten on the free agent market this winter?

I’ll start with A-Rod because he’s the easiest: nothing. I don’t think anyone would sign a 39-year-old with two surgically repaired hips coming off close to two lost seasons. Not even a token minor league contract from his hometown Marlins. Alex would be pushed right out of baseball if he was a free agent this winter. Teams want no part of that baggage.

The standard contract for a “veteran starter we aren’t quite sure about” these days seems to be two years and $20M or so, and that’s what I think Sabathia would get. Jason Hammel, Bartolo Colon, Edinson Volquez, and Scott Kazmir have all signed contracts like that recently. Maybe Sabathia would get less because he missed the end of the year following knee surgery, or maybe he would get more due to his reputation and name value. Teams are still absolutely guilty of paying players for past performance.

Teixeira’s the most difficult one to me. Adam LaRoche just got two years and $25M and he’s both the same age (approximately) as Teixeira and a better player at this point of his career. At the same time, Kendrys Morales just got two years and $17M and is a far inferior player to Teixeira. So does that put Tex in the two years, $20M to $22M range? Maybe Morales isn’t the best player to use as a basis of comparison. I’m not sure what Teixeira would have gotten as a free agent at all.

Alex asks: Would the Yanks have any interest in Cliff Lee still? Short term commitment and likely cheaper to acquire than Hamels?

Yeah, possibly, but I think they want to see him healthy first. Lee is owed $25M this coming season with a $27.5M vesting option ($12.5M buyout!) that will kick in if he throws 200 innings in 2015. He dealt with a lot of elbow problems last season and although he has been throwing this winter, I think the Yankees would still want to see him on a big league mound before pulling the trigger. If you get him now and his elbow gives out, you’d get absolutely nothing from the trade. Let’s see him healthy first.

Hit .268/.399/.441 (123 OPS+) in his career. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

John asks: I saw an article recently on the retired Adam Dunn and how 49% of his plate appearances ended in a guaranteed outcome (walk, k or HR). Wondering where this ranks and if any Yankees would make the top ten of the list, like Nick Johnson or Jason Giambi. Thanks and keep up the great work.

Since 1910, a total of 1,577 players have accumulated at least 3,000 career plate appearances. (Strikeout data isn’t all that reliable prior to 1910.) Here are the ten players with the highest (and, for fun, the lowest as well) career percentages of the three true outcomes, meaning walks, strikeouts, and home runs:

Ten Highest Rates		Ten Lowest Rates
Player	TTO%	Player	TTO%
Russell Branyan	50.47%	Emil Verban	5.88%
Adam Dunn	49.93%	Stuffy McInnis	6.84%
Rob Deer	49.06%	Bill Killefer	7.21%
Mark Reynolds	48.58%	Lloyd Waner	7.45%
Jim Thome	47.58%	Ivy Olson	7.84%
Mark McGwire	45.64%	Eddie Brown	8.06%
Ryan Howard	45.53%	Homer Santana	8.20%
Carlos Pena	45.48%	Charlie Deal	8.22%
Mike Napoli	44.09%	Nap Lajoie	8.23%
Mickey Tettleton	43.53%	Don Mueller	8.23%

Unsurprisingly, all of the guys on the lowest three true outcome rate (TTO%) list all played a very, very long time ago, back when no one hit dingers and everyone put the first pitch in play. You can see the full 1,577-player spreadsheet right here. (Use Ctrl + f to search through it for any specific names.)

Nick Johnson ranks 99th all-time at 35.86% and Jason Giambi ranks 56th at 37.92%, so no, they aren’t close to the top ten. Mickey Mantle is the highest notable Yankees player on the list — he ranks 19th all-time with a 40.16% three true outcome rate. Reggie Jackson isn’t far behind at 23rd overall (39.72%). Derek Jeter is 576th (25.25%), Jorge Posada is 73rd (37.26%), Bernie Williams is 374th (28.37%), and A-Rod is 126th (34.99%).

Jonathan asks: So what exactly is the holdup with the OFAC and Moncada? Is it just government bureaucracy or is there more to it? Seems like we’ve been waiting for him to be unblocked longer than other international FA.

Mike asks: How will Yoan Moncada’s contract work? I have read it will be a bonus since he has less than 5 years professional experience. Is he on the books for league minimum for the first 3 years? What happens when he is arbitration eligible?

Going to lump these two together. From what I understand, the OFAC hold-up is all bureaucracy. Moncada didn’t defect from Cuba — the Cuban government gave him a visa and let him leave — and apparently that’s slowing down the process. I don’t understand it at all. All I know is that the Yankees can’t sign him until the OFAC signs off.

Moncada is like every other international free agent teams sign out of Latin America each summer. He gets his bonus up front and goes into the farm system like everyone else. When he reaches MLB, Moncada will make near the league minimum during his three years of pre-arbitration and then go through three years of arbitration before qualifying for free agency. Aside from the massive bonus, he’s just like every other draft pick or international signing.

Dan asks: Why are some players given 4th options – how does that process work? I know Dellin received one last year, and it would certainly be nice if Romine got one this year.

Fourth options are confusing. There are several ways a player can qualify for one, but the only one I actually understand is when the player burns all three options within his first five full professional seasons. So if the Yankees call up Rob Refsnyder — a 2012 draftee with two full pro seasons under his belt — this year and wind up optioning him in 2015, 2016, and 2017, he’d get a fourth option for 2018. That doesn’t apply to Betances. I have no idea why he qualified for a fourth option. It would have been very nice if Austin Romine had a fourth option for this year, but Brian Cashman confirmed that is not the case.

Brad asks: If he retired today, would Brian Cashman be honored with a plaque in Monument Park?

I think the answer is no right now. The only GM in Monument Park at the moment is Ed Barrow, who called the shots from 1921-46. The Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Bill Dickey, first half of Joe DiMaggio’s career era. His plaque was dedicated in 1954. Cashman is entering his 17th season as GM and he’s still eight years behind Barrow. If the Yankees win another World Series or three before the end of Cashman’s tenure, then yeah, I think he might get a plaque. Otherwise the answer is no.

Dan asks: If the Yankees wanted to, could they consider exploring a trade of Brian McCann to the Braves, now that they have parted with Gattis?

The Braves can’t afford McCann — their payroll has held steady at $90M or so since 2001, and Cot’s says they have $81M on the books for 2015 with Mike Minor’s arbitration case still pending. The team filed for $5.1M, so even if they win the hearing, their payroll is over $86M, which leaves them no wiggle room. I don’t see any reason why the Yankees should pay McCann to play for another team. Even trading him for Craig Kimbrel — the salaries aren’t a wash but they’re the closest the Yankees and Braves can get — wouldn’t make sense for the current roster. The Yankees need a starting catcher more than they need a closer. Don’t see it at all.