2017 Rule 5 Draft status suggests the Yankees will have to trade some prospects this year

Gleyber will be protected, because duh. (Presswire)
Gleyber will be protected, because duh. (Presswire)

The busiest day for the Yankees this offseason — and most teams, for that matter — was November 18th, the day clubs had to finalize their 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees made 12 transactions involving 13 players that day. The team’s deep farm system meant six players were added to the 40-man roster. Even then, the Yankees still lost four players in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft.

The Rule 5 Draft and 40-man roster crunch was pretty significant this offseason. The Yankees lost several potentially useful players, most notably Jacob Lindgren and Nick Goody, simply because there was no room for them. Having a great farm system comes with a cost. The Rule 5 Draft crunch is poised to be even more severe next offseason too. Check out the (partial) list of prospects who will have to be added to the 40-man after the 2017 season:

Catchers: None
Infielders: Abi Avelino, Thairo Estrada, Gleyber Torres, Tyler Wade
Outfielders: Rashad Crawford, Dustin Fowler, Clint Frazier, Billy McKinney, Leonardo Molina, Tito Polo
Pitchers: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, Ian Clarkin, Nestor Cortes, J.P. Feyereisen, Zack Littell, Jordan Montgomery, Eric Swanson, Stephen Tarpley

That list doesn’t include outfielder Jake Cave, righty Nick Rumbelow, and lefties Daniel Camarena and Chaz Hebert, all of whom will become minor league free agents after the 2017 season. I know those guys are easy to overlook, but who knows what’ll happen this summer. Who would have guessed Kyle Higashioka would play his way on to the 40-man last year?

Also, that “none” under catchers may only be temporary. If Luis Torrens doesn’t stick with the Padres as a Rule 5 Draft pick, he’ll come back to the Yankees and have to be added to the 40-man roster after the season. That’s a must. If Torrens is picked in the Rule 5 Draft again in December, he’ll be able to elect free agency rather than come back to New York. Can’t let that happen. If Torrens does come back, he’ll land on the 40-man in November.

Okay, so anyway, that’s an awful lot of quality prospects, huh? Torres and Frazier are in a league of their own as top 100 prospects, but many of the other guys figure to be worth protecting too. Wade and Fowler are slated to spend 2017 with Triple-A Scranton. A successful season there means they’re a lock to be picked in the Rule 5 Draft. Others like Abreu and Acevedo have considerable upside, and those guys are always worth protecting.

The Yankees had to make compromises in November because 40-man roster spots are a finite resource. Would they have liked to protect, say, Torrens and Tyler Webb, and keep Lindgren? Yeah, probably, but there’s only so much space to go around. The Yankees will run into a similar problem next offseason, only to a much greater degree. They not only have more prospects eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, they have more high-end prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

Wade. (Presswire)
Wade. (Presswire)

The solution is simple though, isn’t it? Just trade some of them. It’s basically impossible to protect them all, so rather than lose them for nothing in the Rule 5 Draft, just trade them. Package three or four together for one player, preferably a young starting pitcher with several years of control. Boom, problem solved. Two problems solved, really. The Yankees clear up the Rule 5 Draft logjam and add the young pitcher they’ve seemingly been craving for months. It’s perfect!

Except it’s not that easy. It never is. For starters, you have to find another team with the available 40-man roster space to make such a trade. No team is going to trade for these prospects only to expose them to the Rule 5 Draft. The other team’s 40-man situation is an obstacle. Prospects are like kids, teams always love their own more than they love everyone else’s. Not many clubs may be willing to cut one or two of their own players to make room for your players in a hypothetical four-for-one trade. There’s a reason trades like this are rare.

More realistically, we may see the Yankees make a series of smaller moves. One-for-one, two-for-one trades. Trades that swap a Rule 5 Draft eligible prospect for a non-Rule 5 Draft eligible prospect. That’s similar to the James Pazos-for-Zack Littell trade. The Yankees needed the 40-man space, so they sent Pazos to the Mariners for Littell, who is a year away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility. It bought them some time, basically. Not the sexiest move, but necessary.

There’s eleven months between now and the deadline to set the 40-man roster for the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, so this is hardly a pressing issue. It is something the Yankees have to plan for, obviously, and you can be sure it’ll affect their decision-making over the summer. In fact, Brian Cashman even admitted Rule 5 Draft status was a consideration when making trades last summer. How could it not be?

The Yankees did some great work rebuilding their farm system over the last few months and it’s set them up for sustainable success in the near future. Baseball doesn’t allow teams to keep prospects forever though, and rightfully so. There comes a time when you have to ether commit to the player (add him to the 40-man) or give him a chance to reach MLB with another organization (Rule 5 Draft). The Yankees will reach that point with several of their best prospects next winter, and since they can’t protect everyone, they figure to move a few in trades to clear the logjam.

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Weekend Open Thread

An update on the comment moderator and possible new writer(s) search: I’ve made it through about 95% of the submissions and have sketched out a list of candidates to run by everyone else here. I can’t give you a firm announcement date or anything like that, but we’re close to wrapping this up. Thanks for your patience.

In the meantime, here are a bunch of links to check out this weekend. Some of them are a few weeks old. Sorry.

Friday: This is the open thread for the evening. The Knicks, Nets, Devils, and Islanders are all playing tonight, plus there’s college basketball on as well. Have at it.

Saturday: This is the open thread again. The NFL playoffs start today, so that’s fun. You’ve got Raiders-Texans (4:30pm ET on ESPN) and Lions-Seahawks (8pm ET on NBC). The Knicks, Rangers, Devils, and Islanders are all playing as well, and there’s a whole bunch of college hoops as well. Pretty nice little Saturday.

Sunday: For the last time, this is the day’s open thread. The NFL playoffs continue with Dolphins-Steelers (1pm ET on CBS) and Giants-Packers (4:30pm ET on FOX). The Nets are also playing right now, and there’s college basketball on throughout the day. Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

The Third Wheel

(Christian Petersen/Getty)
(Christian Petersen/Getty)

That whole “New Year, New Me,” meme that we always see as the number turns on the calendar is not going to apply to the New York Yankees in 2017. Some of the names and faces may be different, but the big picture looks a whole lot like the one from last year. Questions about veteran bats like Mark Teixeira‘s, Alex Rodriguez‘s, and Carlos Beltran‘s have given way to questions about young players’ bats, like Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Tyler Austin, and the returning Greg Bird. The rotation, as it seems to have been for a while, is far from secure. Leading the similarities, however, is a bullpen headed by a “Big Three,” though this year’s trio will be missing the best of the bunch in Andrew Miller. Replacing him, as he did at the trade deadline last year, is right hander Tyler Clippard.

Clippard pitched well in his 25.1 innings for the Yankees last year, striking out 24.3% of the batters he faced (9.24 K/9) and posting a 2.49 ERA (177 ERA+; 59 ERA-), though that is somewhat belied by a 4.05 FIP (99 FIP-), owed to a high walk rate of 10.3% (3.91 BB/9). In what is likely to be his first full season as a Yankee (provided he doesn’t get traded), Clippard is going to play an important role as gatekeeper to the superior Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman.

Given that the rotation isn’t likely to give much length, something I discussed last month, it’s possible that a lot of games are going to hinge on Clippard performing well in the sixth or seventh inning, holding onto tight leads to turn them over to Betances and Chapman. To mix metaphors, the success of the Yankees’ three-headed-monster may rely on its third wheel, represented by Clippard.

Unless the Yankees improve their rotation before the start of the season, though, they risk the team’s biggest strength being mostly mitigated from the start. While it’s obviously better to have a solid game-ending trio than to not have one, the importance of said trio is lessened when the rotation can’t provide quality or length and the lineup can’t thump its ways through thickets of poor starting to the meadows of high-scoring leads. This isn’t really a thing, but the team’s questionable starting pitching is a case of a weakness potentially turning a strength into something, well, less strong.

To cut back on some of the falling sky here, Clippard is still a good enough pitcher that I’m not too worried about him blowing leads before they’re put into more capable hands. I am worried, though, that he’ll be pressed into early service too often and that, as the season wears on, fatigue may set in. The Yankees need an innings eat to help make sure this doesn’t happen.

DotF: Winter ball season comes to an end

Last month, OF Clint Frazier called in to MLB Network to talk about 2016 and some things he’s been working on this winter. The video is above. “As far as physicality goes, I think my power’s still the best thing, but as we get further I think I’ve done a lot of work on my mental game right now and I think I’m in a good spot right now,” said Frazier when asked about his best attribute. Here are some other links and notes to check out:

  • The Staten Island Yankees are still the Staten Island Yankees. The name change as been put on hold, the team announced. Womp womp. “Over time it became clear that the approval and acceptance of the new name and artwork would take longer than initially anticipated,” said the release. The potential names (Bridge Trolls, Heroes, Killer Bees, Pizza Rats, Rock Pigeons) reportedly didn’t sit well with city officials.
  • In a mailbag column, Jim Callis teased his personal top 50 prospects list. He said SS Gleyber Torres is second, sandwiched between White Sox IF Yoan Moncada and Red Sox OF Andrew Benintendi. Hot damn. On Twitter, Callis added Frazier is 26th and OF Blake Rutherford is 37th. They’re his top three Yankees prospects.
  • Jonathan Mayo surveyed 20 executives about the best prospect in baseball. Benintendi received ten first place votes, most among any player, while Torres received two first place votes of his own. Moncada and Braves SS Dansby Swanson split the other first place votes.
  • In a separate piece, Mayo listed ten players who didn’t make MLB.com’s upcoming top 100 list, but could in the future. RHP James Kaprielian was one of the ten. “The good news is that he looked very good in the Arizona Fall League, and if he stays healthy in ’17, there should be more of that to come,” said the write-up.
  • Not surprisingly, Callis said the Yankees improved their farm system more than any other team in 2016. “The Yanks haven’t had this much talent in the Minors since Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Bernie Williams were developing in the early 1990s,” he wrote.
  • Mike Rosenbaum ranked the ten best prospects traded this offseason. Moncada tops the list, because duh. RHP Albert Abreu is eighth. “Abreu has the chance to pitch in the front half of a big league rotation based solely on stuff, and his control and command should improve as he learns to better repeat his delivery,” said the write-up.
  • And finally, sad news to pass along: LHP Alexander Figueredo was shot and killed in his native Venezuela back in November. He was only 20. Figueredo signed with the Yankees in 2013 and had a 1.89 ERA in 57 career innings, all in the Dominican Summer League. He didn’t pitch at all in 2016 due to a suspension. Our condolences go out to Figueredo’s family.

It’s been a few weeks since the last winter ball update because of the holidays, so we have some catching up to do. The regular season for the various winter leagues in the Caribbean are over, so these stats are final. That means this is the final winter ball update of the offseason. I’ll still post links and whatnot as they come along, but the next stats update won’t come until the minor league regular season begins in April. See you then.

The Arizona Fall League season ended in November. Torres became the young batting champion and MVP in league history. Here are the final stats.

Australian Baseball League

  • RHP Brandon Stenhouse: 6 G, 5.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 WP (7.94 ERA and 2.12 FIP)

Dominican Winter League

  • IF Abi Avelino: 27 G, 12-53, 4 R, 1 2B, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 8 K, 1 CS, 1 HBP (.226/.281/.245)
  • SS Jorge Mateo: 20 G, 7-42, 8 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 10 K, 5 SB, 1 CS, 1 HBP (.167/.239/.238) — played his final game on November 26th … a three-game stint might have been the plan all along … either way, not the best finish to a tough 2016 for Mateo
  • RHP Anyelo Gomez: 3 G, 2.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K (6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP)

Mexican Pacific League

  • OF Tito Polo: 18 G, 15-66, 13 R, 4 2B, 1 RBI, 5 BB, 19 K, 8 SB, 1 CS, 4 HBP (.227/.320/.288) — he got hurt, came back, then got hurt again … so it goes

No Yankees played in the Roberto Clemente Professional Baseball League (Puerto Rico) this year.

Venezuelan Winter League

  • IF Angel Aguilar: 19 G, 4-26, 7 R, 12 K, 1 SB (.154/.154/.154) — not the best winter ball showing after a tough regular season
  • C Francisco Diaz: 44 G, 25-126, 11 R, 5 2B, 2 3B, 5 RBI, 10 BB, 22 K, 1 SB, 1 CS, 1 HBP (.198/.263/.270)
  • RHP Luis Cedeno: 4 G, 2 GS, 11.1 IP, 13 H, 9 R, 7 ER, 6 BB, 7 K, 2 HR, 2 HB, 2 WP (5.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP)
  • RHP David Kubiak: 9 G, 3 GS, 22 IP, 21 H, 15 R, 13 ER, 10 BB, 16 K, 1 HR, 3 HB, 3 WP (5.32 ERA and 1.91 WHIP)
  • RHP Mark Montgomery: 5 G, 3.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (7.36 ERA and 1.91 WHIP) — went unpicked in the Rule 5 Draft for the second straight year

Hot Stove Notes: Quintana, Lefty Reliever, Long-Term Deals

Quintana. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty)
Quintana. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

Seven weeks from today, the Yankees will open Grapefruit League play with a home game against the Phillies at the newly renovated George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Seven weeks sounds much closer than it actually is. Anyway, the Yankees still have some offseason business to handle. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

White Sox not budging on Quintana

Left-hander Jose Quintana is still with the White Sox and the team is not budging on their asking price, reports Ken Rosenthal. They want tippy top prospects. The Yankees are among the teams in the mix for Quintana, but Rosenthal says they’re less inclined to deal their top prospects. Other clubs like the Astros and Pirates are more willing to go for it because they’re closer to contention.

Early in the offseason Brian Cashman said he “would not recommend” the Yankees trade several top prospects for a high-end starter because they’re not one piece away from contention and need to build a young core. That was the logic behind passing on Chris Sale and that’s why they’re not gung-ho about Quintana. Maybe the extra year of control changes things, but it doesn’t seem so. That’s too bad. I really like Quintana. He’d be a wonderful addition.

Yankees still seeking lefty reliever

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are among the teams still in the market for a left-handed reliever. They’ve been looking for a lefty bullpen arm basically all offseason, so Heyman’s report isn’t coming out of nowhere. At the moment, New York’s lefty reliever depth chart looks like this:

  1. Aroldis Chapman
  2. Tommy Layne
  3. Chasen Shreve
  4. Richard Bleier
  5. Dietrich Enns
  6. Joe Mantiply
  7. Jason Gurka

Maybe flip Shreve and Bleier, but that’s it. Chapman is in his own little world as the closer — he won’t be used in a matchup situation in the seventh inning, for example — so the depth chart really starts with Layne. I’m not 100% convinced the Yankees need another lefty, but, if they’re determined to sign one, there are a few interesting free agents. Boone Logan and Jerry Blevins are the best of the lot.

Yankees not focusing on short-term additions

After signing Matt Holliday, the Yankees are not willing to deal prospects for short-term upgrades, said Cashman during a recent MLB Network interview (video link). “We’re very protective of the work we’ve done thus far, and we don’t want to do anything at the expense of a short-term gain. We want to make sure it’s for long-term efforts as well. And as we’ve seen since last winter, the price of doing business trade-wise is extremely high,” said the GM.

This kinda circles back to Quintana, who is under control through 2020 and qualifies as a long-term buy. Would the Yankees like to have him? Of course. But they’re not willing to give up top prospects to get him. Chapman is now under control for five years (well, three because of the opt-out) but the Yankees only had to give up cash to get him. If they could get Quintana for just cash, they’d do it. Trading top prospects for anything short of an established young player with several years of cheap control was never going to happen this winter.

Cashman: A-Rod invited to Spring Training as instructor

(Justin K. Aller/Getty)
(Justin K. Aller/Getty)

According to Christian Red, Brian Cashman confirmed the Yankees have invited Alex Rodriguez to Spring Training as an instructor. His special advisor role runs through the end of this year. “He’s certainly invited to participate in Spring Training, but Alex is also free to do as he pleases, if he wants to try and keep playing,” said Cashman.

There has been no indication A-Rod wants to continue playing — he’s living the dad life on social media — and even if he wanted to, who’s going to sign him? Rodriguez hasn’t been an effective hitter since August 2015 and free agency is loaded with righty sluggers. Teams would sign Mike Napoli or Chris Carter before A-Rod. Heck, the Yankees chose Billy Butler over A-Rod late last year.

“Alex is enjoying his time off and looking forward to heading to Spring Training to work with the young guys as he has said all along,” said Ron Berkowitz, A-Rod’s spokesman, to Red. That sure seems to indicate Rodriguez is done playing and plans to report to Spring Training to help out as an instructor in a few weeks.

Although A-Rod’s official title is “special advisor,” his role is to work with young players, so he’s more like a special instructor. The Yankees had Rodriguez at Instructional League last September to work with several of their top prospects, including Clint Frazier, Jorge Mateo, and Blake Rutherford.

A-Rod at Instructs. (@AROD)
A-Rod at Instructs. (@AROD)

“We welcome the opportunity for him to impact our young players at Spring Training,” added Cashman. “Alex would work directly for Hal (Steinbrenner). All the parameters have been vocalized and they remain the same from last year. He’s got a life to live too, and I’m sure he’s going to have a lot of opportunities in broadcasting, in business. People will be tugging him in a lot of different directions.”

The Yankees bring a ton of guest instructors to Spring Training each year. A ton. A-Rod’s arrangement is pretty unique though. He was released as a player and the Yankees gave him this special advisor role, essentially so they can extract some value out of the $21M they’ll pay him in 2017. Most guest instructors stick around camp for a few days before heading home. Will Rodriguez be around longer than usual? I guess we’ll find out pretty soon.