Forbes: Yankees worth an estimated $3.2 billion


Once again, the Yankees have been ranked as the most valuable franchise in baseball. Forbes released their annual franchise valuations yesterday, and New York claimed the top spot with an estimated value of $3.2 billion. This is their 18th consecutive year atop the Forbes rankings. The Dodgers are a distant second with an estimated value of $2.4 billion.

The Yankees generated an estimated $508M in revenue last year — the Dodgers were again second at $403M — again the most in baseball, though their $8.1M operating income ranked only 22nd out of the 30 clubs. The Cardinals ($73.6M), Cubs ($73.3M), and World Series champion Giants ($68.4M) had by far the highest operating incomes. From the write-up:

The New York Yankees are worth the most, $3.2 billion, and are tied with the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys as the most valuable U.S. sports team (Spanish soccer club Real Madrid, worth $3.44 billion, is the most valuable in the world). The Yankees have been the most valuable baseball team each of the 18 years Forbes has valued MLB franchises since 1998. During the 2014 season, the Bronx Bombers generated a record $508 million of revenue after deducting PILOT bond payments of $78 million and the $90 million the team contributed to baseball’s revenue-sharing system. The team raked in over $100 million in local television rights payments, and Derek Jeter’s last season in pinstripes goosed ticket and merchandise sales.

The franchise value is up from $2.5 billion last year, according to Forbes. The Yankees were valued at $2.3 billion in 2013, $1.85 billion in 2012, $1.7 billion in 2011, and $1.6 billion in 2010. The huge jump in franchise value from 2013 to 2014 was thanks in part to baseball’s new national television deals, as well as the team’s deal to sell part of YES to News Corp.

Despite their continued reign atop the franchise valuations — to be fair, Forbes is only estimating — Hal Steinbrenner is content to throw away his team’s inherent market advantage by reducing payroll to get under the luxury tax threshold in two years or so. I understand why he wants to do it, luxury tax is wasted money, but as a fan I don’t like it all. The Yankees aren’t taking full advantage of the New York market and their on-field product both is and will continue to suffer.

Depth Arms: Miscellaneous 40-Man Roster Pitchers [2015 Season Preview]

The Yankees remade their bullpen this offseason — assuming Adam Warren is the fifth starter, the only player in the 2014 Opening Day bullpen projected to be in the 2015 Opening Day bullpen is Dellin Betances — and five of the seven spots are pretty well set. Betances and Andrew Miller will be the late inning guys, David Carpenter and Justin Wilson will be the middle inning guys, and Esmil Rogers figures to be the swingman.

That leaves two spots open and thus far the Yankees have not tipped their hand in Spring Training. There are no obvious favorites for those spots. The club has a bunch of options, both 40-man roster guys and non-40-man roster guys, and they can go in any number of directions. Two long men, two one-inning guys, two lefties, two righties, one of each, whatever. The depth is there and the Yankees will use all of it this year. That’s baseball. The pitching staff has to be fluid. Here are the team’s 40-man depth arms heading into the regular season.

Burawa. (Presswire)
Burawa. (Presswire)

Danny Burawa: Stuff, Not Strikes

Last winter the 26-year-old Burawa went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees didn’t roll the dice again. They added Burawa, a Long Island kid, to the 40-man roster in November despite his control problems because his stuff is vicious. He sits mid-to-high-90s with his running fastball and mid-to-upper-80s with his slider, and his crossfire delivery adds deception. Burawa has a great, great arm.

The problem is strikes, as I mentioned. Burawa walked 11.3% of batters faced last year and had to be demoted from Triple-A Scranton to Double-A Trenton at midseason. His career walk rate in the minors is 11.1%. The Yankees have three option years to help Burawa harness his stuff, and if that doesn’t happen, it’s hard to see him as anything more than an up-and-down arm. His stuff is so good the team will be patient though.

Jose DePaula: Lefty Long Man

The Yankees surprisingly signed DePaula to a one-year contract this offseason, adding him to the 40-man roster even though he has zero MLB experience and threw only 130 innings from 2012-14 due to oblique and shoulder issues. His shoulder started acting up again this spring — DePaula went for an MRI a week ago and everything came back clean, though it has limited him to mostly bullpens — which took him out of the running for a Opening Day roster spot. DePaula, 27, is a generic low-90s fastball, mid-80s changeup, mid-70s curveball strike-throwing lefty. He’ll work as a starter in Triple-A to start the year and could emerge as a spot starter or long relief option at some point this summer.

Chris Martin: Tall Up & Down Righty

Martin, 28, was the final link in a fringe reliever transaction chain. Preston Claiborne was designated for assignment to clear a spot for Gonzalez Germen, who was acquired from the Mets. Germen was then designated for assignment when the Yankees acquired Martin from the Rockies. New York acquired Germen because they felt he was better than Claiborne, and then they acquired Martin because they felt he was better than Germen.

Martin is basically the model Yankees reliever based on the team’s ostensible preferences. He’s super tall (listed at 6-foot-8), throws hard (PitchFX had him averaging 94.6 mph in 2014), and has a history of striking guys out (career 24.9 K% in Triple-A). His back story is pretty interesting too. Like Claiborne before him, Martin is slated to fill an up-and-down role this year, riding the bus back and forth between Triple-A and MLB whenever a fresh arm is needed. He’s not exactly a young prospect, so I’m not sure how much room for improvement there is.

Mitchell. (Presswire)
Mitchell. (Presswire)

Bryan Mitchell: Seventh Starter?

The fifth starter competition was basically a two-horse race between Warren and Rogers, with Mitchell as one of the guys on the periphery of the competition. The Yankees always seemed intent on sending him to Triple-A for more refinement, which makes sense at this point of his career. Mitchell has very good stuff, but he will turn only 24 next month and has only 51.2 career innings above Double-A. He’s also prone to bouts of wildness.

There’s a chance — albeit a small one — Mitchell can be the 2015 version of 2014 Shane Greene, coming up at midseason to solidify the rotation. He’s ahead of where Greene was at age 24 developmentally, though he still needs to iron out his control after walking 10% of batters faced between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014. The thin starting pitching depth chart means Mitchell may be pushed into MLB action this year, though if you gave the Yankees a truth serum, I think they’d admit they’d like him to get a full year in Triple-A before being a September call-up.

Branden Pinder: Bullpen Sleeper

The Yankees like Pinder enough to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft this past winter even though a groin injury limited him to 39.1 innings last year, mostly at Double-A and Triple-A. The 26-year-old Pinder is more of a high probability guy than a high upside guy despite sitting low-to-mid-90s with his fastball and low-80s with his slider. Pinder throws a ton of strikes (5.9 BB% in 2014) and that about sums him up. He’s a fastball/slider reliever who won’t walk the park. Pinder has already been optioned to Triple-A Scranton, though I definitely expect him to get called up at some point. He has sneaky staying power, the kind of guy who gets called up and before you know it, he’s making his 40th appearance of the season.

Jose Ramirez: The Perpetual Tease

So, will this be the year Ramirez stays healthy? The 25-year-old has tremendous stuff and has for years, but he’s can’t stay on the field and it’s been an issue his entire career. Last year a lat strain limited him to 22.1 innings between Triple-A and MLB. When he’s actually on the mound, Ramirez has filthy stuff, sitting mid-90s with his fastball and getting swings and misses with both his slider and changeup, so the potential to be an impact reliever exists. He just can’t stay healthy. Ramirez made his big league debut last summer and figures to see the Bronx again this year. Until he manages to get through a full season in one piece, he’s going to continue to be a tease.

Shreve. (Presswire)

Chasen Shreve: The Third Lefty?

Out of all the players in this post, Shreve may have been given the biggest opportunity to win a bullpen job in Spring Training. He leads full-time Yankees’ relievers in Grapefruit League innings and has faced a ton of righties as the team gave him a chance to show he can be more than a lefty specialist. Camp hasn’t gone well (seven runs in eight innings) and that may earn Shreve a trip to Triple-A to start the year, but the Yankees have made it pretty clear they want him in MLB at some point.

Shreve, 24, had an excellent minor league season with the Braves last year, pitching to a 2.67 ERA (1.92 FIP) with 35.5 K% and 4.9 BB% in 64 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He changed his approach last year and decided to simply air it out each pitch, which led to all that success last year. Shreve now sits in the low-90s and has both a slider and a promising split-changeup hybrid, which suggests he can be more than a lefty specialist. There’s still a chance Shreve will make the Opening Day roster, but, even if he doesn’t, I’m certain we’ll see him in the Bronx this year, sooner rather than later.

Chase Whitley: Depth & Versatility

If the fifth starter’s race was purely Spring Training performance based, Whitley probably would be considered the frontrunner for the job. He’s allowed just one run in eleven innings and has been efficient, though he hasn’t faced the best competition either. Whitley had a nice little run as a starter last season before the wheels fell off, which wasn’t entirely unexpected since he is a career reliever who converted to a starter last season. He has three pitches though, so the Yankees are keeping him stretched out because why not?

Whitley, 25, might have the best chance to make the Opening Day roster out of anyone in this post. He could assume something similar to the old David Phelps role, working one inning or four innings at a time, depending what the team needs that night. Rogers could fill that role as well, though the Yankees have indicated they would like to take it easy on their starters early in the season, so carrying two multi-inning bullpeners could make sense. Either way, we’ll see Whitley in MLB this season at some point. I’m sure of it.

Spring Training Game Thread: Warren’s Chance To Clinch A Rotation Spot


Barring something unforeseen, Adam Warren will be the fifth starter at the start of the season. Brian Cashman basically confirmed it yesterday without actually coming out and saying it. Warren has outpitched Esmil Rogers this spring and it seems none of the other rotation candidates (Bryan Mitchell and Chase Whitley, specifically) were given serious consideration. With a strong performance today, Warren will erase any lingering doubt about his not yet official status as the fifth starter.

Today’s reason to watch: I’m not going to lie, this has the look of one of those uninteresting Spring Training games that will leave you wondering why you’re watching come the third or fourth inning. Warren is pitching and that’s important, plus some interesting non-top prospects are scheduled to play, but that’s about it.

The Yankees are on the road this afternoon, making the two-hour bus trip down to Port Charlotte to play the Rays. Not many regulars made the trip at all. There’s a bunch of bench players masquerading as regulars to meet MLB’s minimum requirement today. Here’s the Rays’ lineup and here’s the Yankees’ lineup:

  1. SS Didi Gregorius
  2. 2B Brendan Ryan
  3. 1B Garrett Jones
  4. CF Chris Young
  5. C John Ryan Murphy
  6. DH Rob Refsnyder
  7. LF Slade Heathcott
  8. RF Ramon Flores
  9. 3B Cole Figueroa
    RHP Adam Warren

Available Position Players: C Eddy Rodriguez, 1B Jonathan Galvez, SS Nick Noonan, LF Ben Gamel, and CF Jake Cave are scheduled to come off the bench. C Kyle Higashioka, C/1B Francisco Arcia, IF Ali Castillo, and OF Michael O’Neill are also on the trip as extra players.

Available Pitchers: RHP Chris Martin, RHP Danny Burawa, and RHP Jose Ramirez will follow Warren. LHP Tyler Webb, RHP Nick Rumbelow, RHP Cesar Vargas, RHP Branden Pinder, and RHP Nick Goody are the extra arms.

It it hot, cloudy, and humid in Port Charlotte, but there’s no rain in the forecast. This afternoon’s game will begin a little after 1pm ET and you can watch on There is no YES broadcast and MLB Network is showing the game on a delay later, not live. won’t be blacked out in the Yankees’ home market and can watch on Sun Sports if you are in the Rays’ home market. Enjoy the game.

Dellin Betances’ rough spring and reduced velocity are a cause for some concern, but not yet panic


For the fourth consecutive appearance, ace righty reliever Dellin Betances allowed a run yesterday afternoon, this one on a home run by the generally powerless Juan Lagares. The homer came on a hanging breaking ball, and while it was Dellin’s second straight day on the mound — his first set of back-to-back games this spring — it continued his recent stretch of tough outings.

Betances has allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks in his 5.1 innings this spring, striking out four. All four strikeouts came his first two outings. He hasn’t struck out any of the last 18 batters he’s faced after going no more than 13 batters between strikeouts in 2014 as best I can tell. Dellin allowed one run on five hits and four walks in 12.1 last spring, striking out eleven, just for reference.

The circumstances this year are much different than last year, however. Betances was trying to impress last spring because he wanted to make the team. He had a strong showing in September 2013 after moving to the bullpen full-time in Triple-A, but Spring Training was his best opportunity to impress the decision-makers. Betances has a roster spot locked up this spring, so he could afford to take it a little easier in March.

Now, that said, Dellin’s struggles appear to go beyond something we could chalk up to a veteran just getting work in. There is no PitchFX in any Grapefruit League park, so while we don’t have an accurate measure of his velocity, it is clearly down a few miles an hour. Joe Girardi acknowledged it the other day, telling Chad Jennings that Betances “wasn’t throwing 97, 98 in Spring Training last year at this time. He wasn’t. And power pitchers usually take a little bit longer to get going.”

While true, PitchFX clocked Betances at 97.1 mph during his first regular season outing last year, on April 1st. First game of the year adrenaline? Maybe. He was at 95.4 mph in his second game and 96.6 mph in his third. Either way, Dellin hasn’t come close to that average fastball velocity this month. His breaking ball hasn’t had the same sharp bite either — it certainly isn’t buckling as many knees — and his overall location has been poor. Betances knows it too and he’s getting frustrated.

“I’m obviously frustrated. I mean, it’s been four outings where every time out, I’ve given up a run. Today I felt better, but you got to make a better pitch than that to Lagares. It’s frustrating, but I’m sure I got four more outings left and I’ll do whatever I can to be better for the season,” said Dellin to Jennings and Brendan Kuty following yesterday’s game. “A lot of those guys know who I am now. Last year, I was unknown. Right now I need to get a few more (mph on my fastball) and maybe attack the zone better.”

Three years ago we went through a similar situation with a pitcher showing reduced velocity, though I think Michael Pineda‘s situation in 2012 was much different than what Betances is going through now. Pineda was having a tough time cracking 90 mph — Jennings spoke to a scout who had Betances at 92-93 mph yesterday, for what it’s worth — and he seemed to be laboring physically. Dellin doesn’t give off that same vibe. It seems like it’s a mechanical issue more than a physical issue, but I’m neither a doctor nor a pitching coach.

Betances of course has a long history of mechanical issues. Very long. Basically his entire career sans 2014. He struggled with extreme control problems in the minors and things didn’t click until he went to the bullpen, and Dellin attributed the regular work to his improved mechanics. That could be part of the problem this spring — he’s thrown roughly 40% of the innings he did last spring with only a week to go in camp. Maybe he hasn’t seen enough game action to get up to speed.

Last season’s workload — 90 innings across 70 appearances — could certainly be a factor, though the innings total itself was not out of the norm for Betances. He threw 89 total innings in 2013, 131.1 innings in 2012, and 129 innings in 2011. That said, he was a starter in 2011 and 2012, and throwing that many innings as a starter is different than doing it as a reliever in so many more appearances. Dellin threw a ton of stressful innings last year. Of course the workload could be a factor.

I’d be lying to you if I said I wasn’t worried about Betances’ rough spring and his stuff not being as crisp as it was in 2014. Between that, his minor league history, and last year’s workload, I don’t know how some concern doesn’t creep into your mind. But full blown panic? No, not yet. I want to see what happens when Betances gets into the regular season and gets some more innings under his belt. If he’s still throwing low-90s with no feel for his breaking ball say, three weeks into the season, then I’ll be much more concerned than I am right now.

As I wrote in our Season Preview post earlier this week, Betances is unlikely to repeat last season’s overwhelming dominance because basically no one does that two years in a row. That doesn’t mean I expect to him bad though. I still expect him to be an elite reliever, the same way David Robertson never repeated his 2011 performance but remained elite from 2012-14. The good news is the Yankees have a deep bullpen and have the relievers to cover the late innings if Betances’ struggles carry over into the regular season. They can be patient and let him work it out.

But let’s not kid ourselves either. Dellin is a major piece of the 2015 Yankees, a team built to win close games on the back of a shutdown bullpen, a bullpen Betances was expected to anchor. If whatever is ailing him this spring continues deep into the season, it’s going to hurt the team’s chances of contending substantially. This isn’t some generic middle reliever we’re talking about. For now, I am a bit concerned about Betances and hope to see improvement over his final few Spring Training appearances. And if he doesn’t get straightened out a few weeks into the regular season, the Yankees could have a big problem on their hands.

Open Thread: March 25th Camp Notes

The Yankees lost 7-2 to the Mets this afternoon. Masahiro Tanaka had his worst start of the spring, allowing three runs (two earned) on four hits and a walk in 4.2 innings before hitting his pitch limit (60, he threw 59). He struck out seven. Pretty much every reliever who pitched stunk. Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, David Carpenter … all of ‘em. Not a banner day for the relief crew.

Chase Headley once again had a big day at the plate, going 2-for-3 with a double. Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez both went 1-for-3 and Didi Gregorius went 1-for-2 with a double. Brett Gardner and Carlos Beltran both went hitless in three at-bats. Headley drove in the first run and Nick Noonan drove in the other with a ninth inning single. That pretty much sums up the day offensively. Here’s the box score, here are the video highlights, and here’s the rest from Tampa:

  • Tanaka confirmed he is working on a two-seamer this spring and plans to use it this year more than his four-seamer, which was his least effective pitch in 2014. I like the idea. Tanaka’s not a guy with overpowering velocity, he succeeds by keeping hitters off balance with his offspeed stuff, and the two-seamer gives him something with a little wrinkle to stay off the barrel of the bat. [Bryan Hoch, Dan Barbarisi]
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique) took dry swings and played catch. He continues to progress well. It’s unclear when Jose Pirela (concussion) will play again, but Joe Girardi hopes he can play before the end of camp. Chris Capuano (quad) is playing catch while sitting in a chair. CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Chasen Shreve, Bryan Mitchell, and Jacob Lindgren all threw bullpen sessions. [Hoch, Mark Didtler, Chad Jennings]
  • Brian Cashman all but confirmed Adam Warren will be the fifth starter, calling him the “Secretariat” of the race. “If we had to make a decision today, it’d obviously be Warren,” he added. Cashman wouldn’t confirm Tanaka will start Opening Day, though he did say A-Rod has shown enough this spring to be the everyday DH. [Mark Feinsand, Barbarisi]
  • And finally, know how Yankees recreated that scene from The Sandlot? Well apparently the players filmed a whole bunch of movie scenes that will be released throughout the season. They’re the new Foul Territory. Hell yeah. [Barbarisi]

This is your open thread for the night. If you want to see Tanaka’s outing for yourself, this afternoon’s game will be replayed on YES at 10pm ET. MLB Network is covering the Yankees as part of their “30 Clubs and 30 Days” series tonight, so you can watch that at 7pm ET. They’ll show the White Sox and Royals live after that. The Knicks and Nets are both playing tonight as well, so have at it.

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Minor League Notes: Complex Upgrades, Spring Training Notes, Releases, Suspensions, Pace of Play

Yankees Player Development
(Photo via Brendan Kuty)

The Major League portion of Spring Training has been going on for weeks now, but things on the minor league side are just starting to ramp up. Chad Jennings has the Yankees’ minor league workout groups, if you’re interested. As a reminder, those are not regular season level assignments, only Spring Training workout groups. Many (most?) of the players will open the season at a different level than their workout group. Here are some more miscellaneous minor league notes.

Yankees made upgrades to Tampa complex

At the behest of new farm system head Gary Denbo, the Yankees have made a bunch of upgrades to their minor league complex in Tampa, according to Kevin Kernan. They’re mostly very small changes — new dugouts were built, speakers were installed to play music during workouts, players are no longer required to wear high socks, visitors can now walk freely around the complex — but they do all add up.

“Adding a simple thing like speakers and music for the players it makes things more relaxed for the players and we know players perform better when they are relaxed,” said Denbo to Kernan. “It’s time to put them in the position where they have everything they need to have success. That’s what we’re doing. We’re encouraging players families to come out and watch, too. It’s nice having your family around and we are just trying to make it more comfortable for them.”

The Yankees made more significant changes to the Tampa complex last year — the player development staff got its own dedicated statistical analyst and a new office building with a cafeteria for players was built — but these more recent changes are on a smaller scale designed to make players feel more comfortable and professional. Not coincidentally, Josh Norris says the atmosphere around minor league camp is greatly improved. Between these upgrades and Captain’s Camp, Denbo’s done a lot of good in his short time at the helm.

Notes from minor league camp

Minor league Spring Training games started not too long ago, and last week Norris roamed the back fields in Tampa and passed along some pitching notes. RHP Ty Hensley sat 89-92 and touched 93 in his outing with a hard curveball in the mid-to-upper-80s. The most important thing is he’s back pitching after his offseason ordeal. Meanwhile, RHP Gabe Encinas topped out at 95 mph as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery, RHP Domingo Acevedo was sitting 94-96 mph with a few 97s, and RHP Rookie Davis was 93-95 mph with some 97s and low-to-mid-70s curveball. Norris also posted video of Hensley, Acevedo, and Jorge Mateo. Acevedo is just massive. He’s listed at 6-foot-7 and 190 lbs. but that looks like it shorts him about 50 pounds.

Yankees release 16 minor leaguers

According to Matt Eddy, the Yankees released 14 minor leaguers last week. Here’s the list: IF Jake Anderson, RHP Cristofer Cabrera, RHP Dayton Dawe, UTIL Anderson Feliz, 1B Mat Gamel, 1B R.J. Johnson, 1B Bubba Jones, OF Daniel Lopez, LHP Hector Martinez, LHP Abel Mora, RHP Alex Polanco, RHP David Rodriguez, RHP Hayden Sharp, and UTIL Casey Stevenson. Also, RHP Jordan Cote and RHP Brett Gerritse announced they have been released on Twitter, and C Trent Garrison announced his retirement on Twitter. Garrison was in big league camp this year and Gamel was signed earlier this month. Cote is probably the most notable prospect among the released minor leaguers — he was New York’s third round pick in 2011 and was a classic projectable high school pitcher who didn’t develop as hoped.

Two Dominican Summer League prospects suspended for PEDs

RHP Brayan Alcantara and RH Moises Cedeno have each been suspended 72 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug, report Bob Nightengale and Brendan Kuty. Alcantara tested positive for Stanozolol, whatever the hell that is. Both Alcantara and Cedeno pitched in the Dominican Summer League last year. The 21-year-old Alcantara had a 4.21 ERA with 28 strikeouts and nine walks in 25.2 innings, and the 19-year-old Cedeno had a 3.23 ERA with 59 strikeouts and 20 walks in 53 innings.

New pace of play rules implemented

As expected, new pace of play rules have been officially implemented in the minor leagues, MiLB announced. They mirror the new MLB pace of play rules — batters have to keep one foot in the box, strict two minutes and 25 second breaks between half-innings — plus a new 20-second pitch clock being installed at Double-A and Triple-A. The pitcher has to begin his windup within 20 seconds or an automatic ball will be called.

“Minor League Baseball is excited to implement the pace of game initiatives at the Triple-A and Double-A levels of our organization,” said MiLB president Pat O’Conner in a statement. “We feel the emphasis on pace will lead to more fan enjoyment and better play on the field and is another example of the cooperative relationship between our leagues and Major League Baseball in the advancement of player development.”

April will be used a grace period so players can adjust. The penalties start in May. The pitch clock in Double-A and Triple-A does not necessarily mean a pitch clock is coming to MLB next year. The league is testing it out at the highest level of the minors though, and if it works as intended and the players don’t make too big of a stink, expect MLB to push to add them at the big league level. I’m not a fan of a big ugly clock on the field of play at all, but I guess it’s inevitable.

David Carpenter and Justin Wilson, the New Middle Relief Duo [2015 Season Preview]

The Yankees overhauled the middle of their bullpen with a series of small trades this offseason. Righty David Carpenter and lefty Justin Wilson were brought in at the expense of Manny Banuelos and Francisco Cervelli to help bridge the gap between starting pitcher and the Dellin Betances/Andrew Miller combination at the end of games. As with most Yankees relievers, Carpenter and Wilson are power arms with a history of striking guys out.

Joe Girardi has yet to name a closer but that doesn’t really matter for Carpenter and Wilson. I mean, yeah, there’s the off chance once of these two will be given the ninth inning, but that’s so very unlikely. Carpenter and Wilson were brought to the New York for the middle innings — the sixth and seventh, mostly — and with the Yankees figuring to be a low-scoring team, the duo will be asked to get plenty of important outs in 2015.


Carpenter: A Better Version Of Shawn Kelley

The Yankees acquired Carpenter (and Chasen Shreve) from the Braves only four days after sending Kelley to the Padres for minor league righty Johnny Barbato. The timing probably isn’t a coincidence. The Yankees likely had the Carpenter deal lined up before pulling the trigger on the Kelley trade. The four days between trades probably had more to do with the New Year’s holiday than anything. (Kelley was traded on December 29th, Carpenter on January 1st.)

Kelley gave the Yankees two serviceable years after being acquired from the Mariners for the negligible price of Abe Almonte right at the start of Spring Training 2013. Based on the last two years, the 29-year-old Carpenter is an upgrade over Kelley. Check it out:

Kelley 105.0 4.46 3.33 30.9% 9.6% 33.3% .310 .298
Carpenter 126.2 2.63 2.88 27.4% 7.0% 37.9% .265 .284

Kelley has the edge in strikeout rate but Carpenter has the edge everywhere else, and it’s not like his strikeout rate is bad either. It’s well above the league average for relievers (22.2% in 2014). They’re both fastball/slider pitchers, though Carpenter throws quite a bit harder. His four-seamer averaged 95.5 mph in 2014. Kelley’s averaged 92.1 mph. Carpenter is also learning a splitter this spring that has apparently impressed some scouts.

The on-field upgrade the Yankees made by going from Kelley to Carpenter to obvious. It doesn’t stop there though. Carpenter is ten months younger, will earn $1.335M less than Kelley in 2015, and is under team control through 2017 rather than only 2015 like Kelley. Carpenter’s been much healthier over the years too. His only career DL trip is 15 days for a biceps strain last June. Kelley is a two-time Tommy John surgery guy who missed a month with back trouble last year.

Carpenter is going to step right into Kelley’s old role this season, that versatile middle innings righty who can serve as a setup man or even close on occasion if necessary. Since it looks like Adam Warren is destined for the fifth starter’s spot, Carpenter will be Girardi’s number two righty reliever behind Betances to start the season, the same way Kelley was his number two righty reliever behind David Robertson at the start of last season.

Simply put, Carpenter is a high strikeout reliever with big velocity and a relatively small platoon split. He’s an upgrade over Kelley both on the field and contractually, and it’s easy to see how he fits in and helps the bullpen.

Wilson: Don’t Call Him A Specialist

Like most relievers before him, the 27-year-old Wilson was a middling starting pitching prospect in the minors who moved to the bullpen full-time in the big leagues. He had instant success with the Pirates two years ago, and while his 2014 season wasn’t as good as his 2013 season, Wilson still missed bats and kept the ball on the ground. Here are his two full MLB seasons:

2013 73.2 2.08 3.41 20.0% 9.5% 53.0% .258 .233
2014 60.0 4.20 3.62 23.8% 11.7% 51.3% .279 .306
2013-14 133.2 3.03 3.50 21.8% 10.5% 52.2% .268 .268

Wilson throws very hard, especially for a left-hander. His four-seamer averaged 96.4 mph last summer, second highest among the 38 southpaw relievers who threw at least 40 innings. Only the inhuman Aroldis Chapman had a higher average fastball velocity among lefties (101.2!). Wilson also throws cutters and sinkers as well as a few curveballs, but he tends to live off the four-seamer and cutter. When you throw that hard and only pitch one inning at a time, you can afford to throw almost nothing but heaters.

Wilson's good side. (Presswire)
Wilson’s good side. (Presswire)

The cutter allows Wilson to keep right-handed batters in check and he throws so hard that lefties have a hard time keeping up with him, hence the non-LOOGY-esque platoon split the last two seasons. Strikes are a bit of a problem though. Wilson has always had a higher walk rate than you’d like, even when he was a starter in the minors, and that’s his biggest drawback. He’s a middle reliever who walks people, which makes like him like countless others. He’s also a middle reliever who throws with his left arm and averages over 96 mph with his fastball, making him like very few others.

A few years ago the Yankees took a similarly live armed lefty with control problems in Boone Logan and turned him into a reliable, over-hated middle innings lefty. The control problems never really went away, but the Yankees maximized his strikeout ability — Logan’s strikeout rate from 2010-13: 22.5%, 24.9%, 28.5%, 31.5% — to help compensate. I’m guessing that’s what they’re hoping to do with Wilson, who throws harder than Logan but doesn’t have his wipeout slider.

Wilson is not someone Girardi will have to shelter from right-handed hitters in the middle innings, though his walk issues make him a less than desirable option for consistent high-leverage work. That won’t be his role though. Betances and Miller will handle those spots, Carpenter too. Wilson is a pure sixth and seventh inning type who can miss bats and throw full innings. He’s the pitcher Matt Thornton was expected to be last year, only eleven years younger. Heck, maybe he’s Matt Thornton circa 2006 and about to hit his peak.