Jason Heyward’s comments suggest Yankees never really had a chance to sign him

(David Banks/Getty)
(David Banks/Getty)

Yesterday afternoon, the Cubs officially introduced outfielder Jason Heyward with a press conference at Wrigley Field. His eight-year, $184M contract is now official. The brain trust gave Heyward a jersey, both sides said they’re excited … you know the press conference drill. There were many smiles. A good time was had by all.

At one point during the press conference Heyward was inevitably asked about the Cardinals, his former team, who tried desperately to re-sign him. Here’s what Heyward had to say about St. Louis, according to Jesse Rogers:

“Being 26 years old and knowing that my contract would put me in any clubhouse for longer than most people there, you have to look at age, how fast the team is changing and how soon those changes will come about.”

“The St. Louis Cardinals are always going to be a great organization, and I don’t think anyone would ever be surprised if they win a World Series any year,” Heyward said. “[But] if I were to look up in three years and saw a completely different team, that would be kind of different for me.”

Rogers says Heyward then rattled off a list of Cardinals veterans who either won’t be around in a few years, or will no longer be significant contributors. Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina … guys like that. Players who have formed the core of the Cardinals teams that have gone to the playoffs six times in the last seven years, winning one World Series (2011) and going to another (2013).

In a nutshell, Heyward said he didn’t want to go somewhere where a bunch of roster turnover would soon take place. “I don’t want to take the highest dollar amount when my gut is telling me to go somewhere else,” he added. The Cubs will pay Heyward handsomely, and yet Jeff Passan reports he turned down three larger offers to go to Chicago, including two $200M+ offers. Other teams can not offer the kind of young core the Cubbies boast, however.

The Yankees are in a similar situation as the Cardinals. (Yes, the Cardinals have had more recent success, yadda yadda yadda.) They’re going to lose a lot of key veterans in the coming years, starting with Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran next year. Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia (and maybe Masahiro Tanaka) will be gone the next offseason. Eventually Brian McCann‘s workload as the starting catcher will be scaled back too.

The Yankees are currently making an effort to get younger, and perhaps in two or three years they’ve have the kind of young core Heyward was looking for this offseason. They don’t have it right now though. Heyward’s a very good player who would have been a huge addition to the Yankees. The Yankees were not a good fit for Heyward though, not if his comments about looking for a team with a stable young core were sincere.

Prospect Profile: Luis Cessa

(Toledo Blade)
(Toledo Blade)

Luis Cessa | RHP

Background
The Mets originally signed Cessa as a 16-year-old shortstop out of Mexico in June 2008. I can’t find any information about his signing bonus, though Cessa was not a significant amateur prospect, so chances are the bonus was relatively small.

Pro Career
Cessa spent the 2009 and 2010 seasons in the Dominican Summer League and he didn’t hit, putting up a .178/.319/.229 batting line in 57 total games. The Mets put an end to his shortstop days and decided to try to take advantage of his arm on the mound. Cessa converted to pitching for the 2011 season.

In his first year as a moundsman, Cessa had a 3.19 ERA (2.64 FIP) in 53.2 rookie ball innings. He moved up to the Short Season NY-Penn League in 2012 and managed a 2.53 ERA (3.51 FIP) in 13 starts and 72.1 innings. The Mets bumped Cessa up to their Low Class-A affiliate in 2013 and he responded with a 3.20 ERA (3.14 FIP) in 21 starts and 130 innings. The pitching thing was working out.

The 2014 season saw Cessa pitch to a 4.26 ERA (3.76 FIP) in 118.1 innings, almost all at High-A. (He made one spot start in Double-A.) The Mets opted not to add him to their 40-man roster after the season and the gamble paid off — Cessa went unpicked in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft. He was assigned to the club’s Double-A affiliate to start 2015.

Cessa broke out this past season, pitching to a 2.56 ERA (2.69 FIP) in 13 starts and 77.1 Double-A innings. The Mets moved him up Triple-A for five starts (8.51 ERA and 3.85 FIP), then traded him to the Tigers as the second piece in the Yoenis Cespedes deal. Cessa made seven more Triple-A starts with the Tigers (5.97 ERA and 3.40 FIP) after the trade.

All told, Cessa had a 4.52 ERA (3.08 FIP) in 25 starts and 139.1 innings this season between the Mets and Tigers, Double-A and Triple-A. His strikeout (19.6%) and walk (5.9%) rates were right in line with his career averages (19.6 K% and 5.1 BB%). The Yankees acquired Cessa from the Tigers in the Justin Wilson trade last week.

Scouting Report
Most position player-to-pitcher conversion guys are hard throwers with no real idea where the ball is going. That doesn’t really describe Cessa. The 23-year-old right-hander has a low-90s fastball and will touch 95 mph regularly, and he throws both a changeup and a slider. The change is the more reliable of the two secondary pitches — the Mets had him emphasize the changeup over the years — but the slider flashes above-average potential.

Cessa has a good pitcher’s body at 6-foot-3 and 190 lbs., and he has the kind of athleticism you’d expect from a former shortstop. His delivery is really smooth and he does a very good job repeating it. Most converted guys short arm the ball or have herky jerky motions. Not Cessa.

The delivery and athleticism give Cessa very good control and solid command. He throws strikes and can spot his fastball well, though the changeup and slider command are still improving. Cessa took to pitching quickly, so I guess it’s no surprise he has a reputation for being coachable and having a strong work ethic.

2016 Outlook
The Tigers did not roll the dice like the Mets last year. Detroit added Cessa to the 40-man roster last month to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, so he is on New York’s 40-man right now. That means he’ll be in big league camp next spring and I’m sure we’ll see him often, especially if bullpen jobs are up for grabs. More than likely, Cessa will head to Triple-A Scranton and be an up-and-down arm in 2016. Depending what happens with Bryan Mitchell, Cessa could be as high as seventh on the rotation depth chart come Opening Day.

My Take
I didn’t know a whole lot about Cessa before the trade so I haven’t had much time to form an opinion. He’s certainly not a high ceiling prospect. He’s more of a back-end starter who succeeds by limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground (51.2% ground ball rate in 2015). Cessa does give the Yankees something they lack though: Triple-A rotation depth. The system has been short on arms for a while now and Cessa helps address the upper level depth problem.

The Suddenly Productive Farm System [2015 Season Review]

Judge at the Futures Game. (Rob Carr/Getty)
Judge at the Futures Game. (Rob Carr/Getty)

This past season the Yankees received more production from their farm system than they did in any year since Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang arrived in 2005. And because of that, they’ll take a hit in the various farm system rankings next spring. Top prospects Luis Severino and Greg Bird graduated to MLB, as did the since traded John Ryan Murphy.

When you lose two high-end talents like Severino and Bird to the big leagues, your system is going to take a hit. That’s life. You’d rather the system take a hit because of graduations than failing prospects, and in recent years the Yankees were dealing with too much of the latter. With new farm system head Gary Denbo in charge, the system took a step forward this summer and gave the MLB team help, the kind of help that wasn’t always available in recent years. Let’s review the season on the farm.

The Top Prospect

Coming into the season it was debatable whether Severino or OF Aaron Judge was the Yankees’ top prospect. I went with Judge for a number of reasons, including the inherent injury risk with pitchers. Severino zoomed to the big leagues this summer while Judge split the season between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton, hitting .258/.332/.446 (124 wRC+) with 20 home runs in 127 total games.

Judge dominated the Double-A level (147 wRC+ with 12 HR in 63 games) but had a tougher time in Triple-A (98 wRC+ with 8 HR in 61 games), which isn’t all that uncommon. He was facing pitchers with big league experience for the first time and they picked him apart, mostly by taking advantage of his big strike zone — Judge is 6-foot-7, remember — with high fastballs and soft stuff away.

Contrary to what seems to be popular belief, Judge’s strikeout rate did not spike in Triple-A, at least not insanely so. He had a 25.3% strikeout rate at High-A, a 25.0% strikeout rate in Double-A, and a 28.5% strikeout rate in Triple-A. That’s three extra strikeouts per 100 plate appearances. Judge did have some ugly strikeout heavy slumps with the RailRiders, but overall the strikeout increase was not alarming.

That isn’t to say Judge’s strikeouts aren’t an issue. He’s always going to strike out a lot, he’s a huge guy with a big zone, but you’d rather see him hover around 25.0 K% rather than 28.0+ K% long-term. The power is there though. Judge hit three more homers and two more doubles in 2015 than 2014 despite getting 23 fewer plate appearances, playing against better competition, and playing in worse hitters parks.

The less than stellar showing at Triple-A ensures Judge will return to the RailRiders to start 2016 so he can work on controlling the strike zone a little better (his 9.8% walk rate was above-average, for what it’s worth) and laying off soft stuff off the plate. Judge has big power and his right field defense is easy to overlook. He’s a really good athlete with a strong arm who’s an asset in the field. Hiccup in Triple-A notwithstanding, Judge remains New York’s top prospect in my book.

Mateo. (Jerry Coli)
Mateo. (Jerry Coli)

The Big Name Breakout Prospects

It’s weird to consider C Gary Sanchez a breakout prospect because he’s been one of the best prospects in the organization for a few years now, but a few things finally clicked this year, mostly in terms of his maturity. It helped him reach the big leagues in September. Sanchez is now a candidate — if not the favorite — to replace Murphy as the Brian McCann‘s backup next summer.

SS Jorge Mateo, another one of the team’s top prospects, also broke out this past season in the sense that he played his first full season. The 20-year-old speedster hit .278/.345/.392 (114 wRC+) with a minor league leading 82 steals in 99 attempts (83% success rate) in 117 games with (mostly) Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. No other player stole more than 75 bases this year. If you want to argue Mateo (or Sanchez) is the Yankees’ top prospect and not Judge, I’d disagree, but I’d understand.

A few years ago RHP Rookie Davis was an interesting name literally because of his name. His real name is William but a nickname like Rookie gets you noticed. Davis took a big step forward this year, especially with the command of his mid-90s heater/curveball combination. Walk rate is a control stat, not a command stat, though it is notable he cut his walk rate from 7.6% last year to 4.7% his year. Davis had a 3.86 ERA (2.47 FIP) in 130.2 innings with High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton.

OF Dustin Fowler, 20, also made the jump from sleeper to bonafide prospect this summer by hitting .298/.334/.394 (113 wRC+) with 20 doubles, five homers, and 30 stolen bases in 123 games at Low-A and High-A. He then had a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Fowler has been playing baseball full-time for only two years now — he was also a top football recruit in high school — and he’s starting to turn his power/speed/defense tool package into baseball ability.

And finally, the biggest breakout prospect of the summer was OF Ben Gamel, who’s spent the last few years as a depth player and not an actual prospect. Thee 23-year-old hit .300/.358/.472 (138 wRC+) with 28 doubles, 14 triples, ten homers, and 13 steals in 129 games, all at Triple-A. Gamel’s power finally started to blossom and he’s now a legitimate big league candidate. He and Davis were added to the 40-man roster last month.

The Emerging Depth

Farm systems will always be defined by their star power, that’s just the way it goes, though depth is important as well. The Yankees had several lower profile prospects — guys who don’t necessarily project to be stars but do have a chance to contribute at the big league level in a meaningful way — emerge this summer, including SS Tyler Wade, RHP Brady Lail, LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Cale Coshow, and RHP Domingo Acevedo.

Wade. (The Times of Trenton)
Wade. (The Times of Trenton)

Wade, 21, had an ugly 21-game cameo with Double-A Trenton (37 wRC+) late in the season after a strong showing with High-A Tampa (117 wRC+). He hit .262/.321/.333 (99 wRC+) in 127 total games overall in 2015 and is a contact-oriented left-handed hitting middle infielder with the defensive chops for either side of the second base bag. At the very least, Wade is in position to have a long career as a backup infielder.

The 22-year-old Lail is a major player development success for the Yankees. He was the team’s 18th round pick in the 2012 draft as an extremely raw high schooler from Utah. The Yankees have helped mold him into a four-pitch righty who is in position to give the team serviceable innings soon. Lail had a 2.91 ERA (3.51 FIP) in 148.1 innings for Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton in 2015, though he didn’t miss any bats (13.8 K%). He offers a fastball, curveball, cutter, and changeup. The ceiling is not all that high here, but Lail can help.

Unsurprisingly, the 22-year-old Montgomery was one of the best pitchers in the system this season, posting a 2.95 ERA (2.61 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.1%) and walk (6.6%) rates in 134 innings at Low-A and High-A. Montgomery spent three years in South Carolina’s rotation facing tough SEC lineups, so Single-A lineups were no challenge. He’s another four-pitch guy (fastball, cutter, curve, change) and we’ll find out if Montgomery is for real next season, when he heads to Double-A Trenton.

Coshow is an interesting prospect. For starters, the guy is listed at 6-foot-5 and 260 lbs., so he’s an intimidating presence on the mound. Secondly, he had a 2.45 ERA (2.80 FIP) with good strikeout (21.5%) and walk (6.2%) numbers in 114 innings at three levels in 2015. He topped out at Double-A. Coshow, 23, performed so well the Yankees moved him from a relief role into a starting role at midseason. He’s got a huge fastball, sitting 95-97 and hitting 100 mph in relief, and he backs it up with a wipeout slider. I don’t think Coshow’s a starter long-term, but gosh, that’s a nice looking relief prospect.

And finally, the 21-year-old Acevedo is either one of the best prospects in the organization or just an interesting arm with a long way to go, depending who you ask. Acevedo had a 1.81 ERA (2.89 FIP) with a lot of strikeouts (26.6%) and an average number of walks (7.9%) in 49.2 innings with mostly Short Season Staten Island this summer. He’s another huge guy (6-foot-7) who has touched triple digits, and his changeup is pretty good too. Acevedo needs to figure out a breaking ball at some point to avoid a future in the bullpen.

The Reclamation Prospects

At this time last year both OF Mason Williams and OF Slade Heathcott were afterthoughts. Williams didn’t hit at all from 2013-14 and he was dogged by maturity issues. Heathcott simply couldn’t stay healthy. The two came to Spring Training healthy this year and with positive attitudes, and they put themselves back on the prospect map. Both made their MLB debuts in the first half. It might not sound like much, but Williams and Heathcott went from non-factors to the show in about six months. That’s pretty darn cool.

The Best of the Rest

The Yankees had to be pleased with what they saw from 3B Eric Jagielo (141 wRC+ with Double-A Trenton) before he jammed his knee sliding into home plate in June and had to have it scoped, ending his season. Jagielo’s defense is still a huge question, but the guy can hit, especially for power. IF Abi Avelino and IF Thairo Estrada both had nice seasons in the low minors — Avelino stole 54 bases and Estrada had a 108 wRC+ with Short Season Staten Island.

OF Rob Refsnyder, LHP Jacob Lindgren, and RHP Bryan Mitchell gave the Yankees some mileage at the big league level, and the team turned OF Ramon Flores and RHP Jose Ramirez into Dustin Ackley. The 2014-15 international spending spree added a bevy of prospects to the system and the 2015 draft added even more talent, with RHP James Kaprielian, SS Wilkerman Garcia, RHP Drew Finley, SS Hoy Jun Park, 3B Dermis Garcia, and RHP Chance Adams among the most notable new additions. Also, 2B Tony Renda came over in the David Carpenter trade.

The Disappointing Prospects

It’s not all good news, of course. Several prospects had disappointing seasons, most notably OF Tyler Austin. He hit .240/.315/.343 (92 wRC+) in 94 regular season games and was demoted from Triple-A Scranton to Double-A Trenton at midseason. The Yankees dropped Austin from the 40-man roster in September and he slipped through waivers unclaimed.

3B Miguel Andujar did the bad first half/good second half thing again, though the end result was a .243/.288/.363 (98 wRC+) line in 130 High-A Tampa games. At some point Andujar has to put together a full productive season. Bonus baby OF Leonardo Molina hit .247/.290/.364 (96 wRC+) while repeating the Rookie Gulf Coast League. Age is on his side though — Molina turned 18 in July. Yes, he’s still only 18. Austin, Andujar, and Molina were the biggest disappointments among the team’s top 30 prospects.

Clarkin. (MLB.com screen grab)
Clarkin. (MLB.com screen grab)

The Inevitable Injures

Injuries are part of baseball. That’s just the way it is. The Yankees had several high-profile prospects suffer significant injuries in 2015. LHP Ian Clarkin (elbow inflammation), C Luis Torrens (shoulder surgery), RHP Domingo German (Tommy John surgery), RHP Austin DeCarr (Tommy John surgery), and RHP Ty Hensley (Tommy John surgery) combined for zero regular season games played this year. Zero.

That is two of the top six, three of the top eleven, and five of the top 18 prospects in the organization according to my preseason rankings. (Four of the top seven pitching prospects!) Ouch. Literally and figuratively. On the bright side, Clarkin did avoid the zipper and was able to throw 24.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League. But still, that’s a lot of really good prospects going down with major injuries. The Clarkin and Torrens injuries really took a bite out of the system. They have the most upside.

* * *

Overall, the 2015 season was a big success for the Yankees’ farm system because they graduated some impact talent to the big leagues. Severino and Bird look like keepers and future core players. Murphy had a very good season before being traded a few weeks ago. Sanchez and Mateo emerged, Kaprielian was drafted, and Judge reached Triple-A.

The Yankees dipped into their farm system for help whenever possible this season, and I have to think that serves as motivation for the guys still in the minors. They see that if they stay healthy and produce, they’ll get a chance too. Calling up guys like LHP Matt Tracy and OF Taylor Dugas shows the Yankees will now give anyone and everyone an opportunity if they’re the right man for the job.

Poll: Rob Refsnyder’s role with the 2016 Yankees

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Last week, the Yankees acquired Starlin Castro to be their second baseman of the present and future. Castro will see time at shortstop and third base as well, but he’s the new starting second baseman, and he’s under contract through 2019 with a club option for 2020. This is not a short-term move. Castro was brought in for the long haul.

Prior to the Castro trade the Yankees had a Rob Refsnyder/Dustin Ackley platoon penciled in at second base. Ackley can also play the outfield and first base, plus he’s a left-handed hitter with Yankee Stadium friendly pull power, so he figures to move into a true bench role now. Refsnyder? His future with the Yankees is in question following the Castro deal.

The Yankees have three options with Refsnyder. The could trade him, they could stash him in Triple-A as depth, or they could keep him on the bench. They’ll do one of those three things at some point between now and Opening Day. I don’t think there’s an obvious answer here. You could easily argue any of those three options is the right move. Let’s lay out the case for each.

Trade him!

The Yankees have enough second base depth to cash Refsnyder in as a trade chip. They have Castro — he’s been very durable in his career, by the way — as the starter and Ackley as the backup, with Tony Renda sitting in Triple-A as the third option. They also signed Pete Kozma to a minor league deal recently, so he’s Plan D. There’s some depth there.

Plenty of teams need second base help right now — off the top of my head, the White Sox, Athletics, Angels (Billy Eppler connection!), Nationals, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Padres, and maybe even the Indians (Jason Kipnis is a natural outfielder) could use second base help — and those teams may not want to (or be able to) spend big for a free agent like Howie Kendrick.

What’s Refsnyder worth in a trade? Well, similar good but not great second base prospects like Joey Wendle and Devon Travis have been traded within the last 12-14 months. Wendle was traded for two years of Brandon Moss and Travis was traded for five years of Anthony Gose, so we’re talking anything from a nice complementary big leaguer to a similar young player at another position.

There’s also the possibility of trading Refsnyder as part of a package, which complicates things. He certainly has trade value, but as a defensively limited player who didn’t have a great year in Triple-A and is still unproven at the MLB level, that value is not sky high. Refsnyder won’t be included in a trade for an impact player unless he’s the second or third piece, know what I mean?

Stash Him In Triple-A

Refsnyder has two minor league options left and the Yankees would be well within their rights to use them. Like I said, Refsnyder didn’t have a great year in Triple-A this summer (123 wRC+ for a bat-first guy is meh), and he does still need to work on his defense, so more time in the minors is justifiable. Renda or Kozma wouldn’t be much of an obstacle for playing time either.

As far as I’m concerned, middle infield depth is not a bad thing, especially since Castro (and Ackley) can move around. All it takes is one pulled hamstring for Castro to wind up at shortstop or third base, clearing a spot for Refsnyder to play everyday, or at least resume platooning with Ackley. Renda and Kozma are okay third and fourth options, but eh. The appeal of keeping Refsnyder is obvious.

Keep Him On The Bench

There is still room for Refsnyder on the bench, you know. Right now the bench is backup catcher (Gary Sanchez or Austin Romine), extra outfielder (Aaron Hicks), utility guy (Ackley), and a fourth player to be determined. Refsnyder can be that fourth player, possibly getting regulars at-bats against lefties with Castro sliding over to play shortstop and Didi Gregorius sitting out.

If the Yankees are truly comfortable counting on Castro to be the backup third baseman — he’s only played a handful of career games at third, remember, and those were in rookie ball a long time ago — it makes it much easier to carry Refsnyder and his limited versatility on the 25-man roster. He’d give them another option against left-handed pitchers, which they really need. Southpaws chewed them up late last year.

* * *

It’s clear at this point the Yankees do not think as highly of Refsnyder as many fans, who may only know him through box scores. The team was slow to call him up this past season even though Stephen Drew didn’t hit for long stretches of time, then they went out and acquired Castro. That’s not a move that gets made if they really believe Refsnyder’s ready to be a starting Major League second baseman.

The Yankees don’t have to do anything with Refsnyder. They can keep him and send him to Triple-A again if they want. There is something to the idea of trading him to help address a need elsewhere, and there’s some appeal to keeping him on the bench too. Again, I don’t think there’s a right answer here, and the Yankees might not even know what they’re going to do with him yet. They may be in wait and see mode. Anyway, time for a poll.

What should the Yankees do with Refsnyder?

Tuesday Night Open Thread

Two months and three days from now, Yankees pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training in Tampa. It sounds so close yet feels so far. I expect the Yankees to make a few moves between now and then — whether they’ll be big moves is up for debate — which will hopefully make the next few weeks interesting. January and early February can get pretty boring.

Here is tonight’s open thread. All three local hockey teams are in action and there’s some college hoops on the schedule as well. You folks know how these things work by now, so have at it.

Warren and Wilson trades mean Yankees are now short on options for important innings

Will Mitchell be the new Warren? (David Banks/Getty)
Will Mitchell be the new Warren? (David Banks/Getty)

Somewhat surprisingly, the Yankees traded away both Adam Warren and Justin Wilson on back-to-back days last week. I say somewhat surprisingly because although Warren and Wilson never felt untouchable, at least not to me, it didn’t seem like they would be moved given their effectiveness and years of cheap control. Both were valuable members of the staff in 2015.

The Yankees did trade both though, and regardless of how you feel about the trades, you don’t have to try too hard to understand them. Warren was traded for 25-year-old middle infielder who has already gone to three All-Star Games and is signed affordably for another four years. Wilson was dealt for two Triple-A starting pitcher prospects to rebuild depth.

I understand the trades, though that doesn’t change the fact the Yankees traded away two pretty good pitchers who were expected to throw important innings next season. There was always a chance Warren could have ended up in the rotation, but, at the very least, he and Wilson were two of the team’s four best relievers. They’d be two of the three best on many teams.

“You lost two really important pieces,” said Joe Girardi to Ryan Hatch. “Wilson did a tremendous job in the seventh inning and Adam went between starter and bullpen, and was the guy that we could turn to in the bullpen and either be a seventh, eighth, or ninth if we didn’t have that guy … Obviously I’m going to miss Adam. There’s a relationship there. But to get something good we had to give up something good.”

Soon after the trades, Nick Ashbourne pointed out Warren and Wilson combined to be Francisco Liriano this past season, and that kind of production is not easy to replace. Are the Yankees good at building bullpens? Oh yes, absolutely. They’ve been very good at it in recent years. I’m pretty confident they can adequately replace Warren and Wilson. I’m just really curious to see how they do it.

Internal options are plentiful and lately Plan A has been trying to find help from within. To me, the trades represent big opportunities for Bryan Mitchell and Jacob Lindgren. Mitchell will have a chance to step right into that swingman role Warren filled so capably. Lindgren is the obvious candidate to replace Wilson as the lefty setup guy who can throw full innings. The Warren and Wilson trades can be viewed as votes of confidence for Mitchell and Lindgren.

At the same time, it is only December 15th, so the Yankees still have several weeks to look outside the organization for help, and I’m sure they will. At this time last year I don’t think any Yankees fans even knew Chasen Shreve existed. I know I didn’t. The Yankees picked him up in early-January and he had five really good months in pinstripes. I would honestly be stunned if they don’t bring in some sort of big league pitching help between now and Spring Training.

Will that soon-to-be-acquired pitching depth plus internal options like Mitchell, Lindgren, and all the other relievers on the 40-man roster adequately replace Warren and Wilson? Maybe! Who knows though. Heck, 2016 Warren and Wilson might not replace 2015 Warren and Wilson. Relievers are notoriously unpredictable. The Yankees believe they can replace those two though. The trades wouldn’t have been made otherwise.

Losing Warren and Wilson is pretty scary, especially since none of the shuttle relievers impressed this summer and no one in the rotation seems capable of going 6+ innings consistently. I’d be lying if I said I was comfortable with the bullpen as is, even with Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller holding down the late innings. Lots of games are lost in the middle innings. We’re not going to know whether the Yankees adequately replaced Warren and Wilson until the season starts, but, right now, it’s clear there’s work that needs to be done to replace two high-leverage arms.

“Are those guys in place yet? No,” said Girardi when asked about replacing Warren and Wilson, “but I think they will be by the time we start the season.”

The 2015 Draft and the Next Wave of Arms [2015 Season Review]

Kaprielian. (John Corneau Photos)
Kaprielian. (John Corneau Photos)

Coming into the season the Yankees had a very position player heavy farm system. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but their position player depth did far exceed their mound depth. You’d like more balance, ideally. Once LHP Ian Clarkin got hurt and it became obvious RHP Luis Severino would soon arrive in MLB, the farm system pitching picture looked even bleaker. The Yankees were light on arms.

The 2015 amateur draft didn’t erase that lack of pitching depth completely, but it did start to the move the team in the right direction. The Yankees selected pitchers with three of their first four picks, four of their first six picks, and 24 of their 41 total picks. Twenty-three of the 35 draft picks they signed were pitchers. Whether the emphasis on arms was intentional or just a coincidence, the Yankees added some much-needing pitching depth to the organization in the draft. Let’s review the class.

The Top Pick

The Yankees did not forfeit their first round pick to sign a free agent last offseason, so they held the 16th overall pick in the 2015 draft. They hadn’t picked that high since taking Florida HS RHP Matt Drews with the 13th pick way back in 1993. Years of good records and forfeiting high picks to sign free agents kept the Yankees away from top 16 picks for more than two decades.

“It did feel a little bit more like that,” said scouting director Damon Oppenheimer to reporters in June when asked if picking so high came with extra pressure. “It felt like you owe it to the Yankees and you owe it to the organization to get somebody with this pick who’s going to produce and be a quality Major League player. You feel like that about most of them, but when it comes to picking higher than we have since Matt Drews, before I was even here, it does feel that way. I’m not going to lie about it.”

The Yankees used that 16th overall pick to select UCLA RHP James Kaprielian, the fifth pitcher taken in the 2015 draft. Interestingly, a few reports — speculation more than factual reports, I’d say — indicated the Yankees were planning to take a high school bat with their top pick, but the guys they were targeting had already come off the board, namely Florida HS OF Kyle Tucker, George HS SS Cornelius Randolph, New York HS OF Garrett Whitley, and Texas HS OF Trent Clark.

Anyway, Kaprielian landed a slightly above-slot $2.65M bonus a few days before the signing deadline. He allowed six runs (five earned) in 11.1 regular season innings for the Rookie Gulf Coast League affiliate and Short Season Staten Island after turning pro, then he dominated in two postseason starts with the Baby Bombers: 12.1 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K combined. The Yankees then sent him to Instructional League after the season.

“We do think this guy is at least a No. 3 starter and above” added Oppenheimer. “His stuff definitely is now stuff, and it’s now quality stuff. He has control to go along with mental maturity. It seems it could be (a guy who climbs the ladder quickly), but I don’t know the timetables on these guys. It’s too hard to tell. But he shouldn’t have to spend too much time at the lower levels.”

I think there’s a real chance we’ll see Kaprielian in the big leagues in the second half next season. He could follow something along the lines of Ian Kennedy’s path, meaning ten starts with High-A Tampa, eight with Double-A Trenton, six with Triple-A Scranton, then the big leagues in August and September. Obviously he has to perform and show big league stuff, but Kaprielian should move very quickly.

I normally like to be conservative with young pitchers, but Kaprielian’s an exception. There’s no reason to hold a polished college guy with command of multiple offspeed pitches back. Being ready soon is part of his appeal.

The Other Quick Moving Guy

Kaprielian has a chance to reach the show in the second half of next season and it’s entirely possible he will be only the second 2015 Yankees draftee to reach MLB. Dallas Baptist RHP Chance Adams (fifth round) reached High-A Tampa in his pro debut and had a 1.78 ERA (1.75 FIP) in 35.1 innings at three levels. He struck out 31.7% of batters faced and walked only 6.3%. Adams was overwhelming.

Obviously the numbers are great, but Adams also saw his stuff jump a notch in pro ball. He went from sitting low-to-mid-90s in college this spring to sitting mid-90s and touching as high as 99 after signing, and his already good slider gained consistency with pro instruction. Adams is a pure reliever and I think he’ll start next season with Double-A Trenton. If starts 2016 with the same stuff he had at the end of 2015, the only question about Adams’ readiness will be how soon the Yankees want to clear a 40-man roster spot for him.

The Bonus Baby Arms

In addition to Kaprielian, the Yankees signed two other pitchers to well-above-slot bonuses using the savings from the late-round draft pool manipulating picks. (They took cheaper prospects in rounds 7-10 to save pool space.) First they gave California HS RHP Drew Finley (third round) a $950,000 bonus, about 50% over slot. Then they gave Louisville LHP Josh Rogers (11th) a $485,000 bonus, nearly five times slot.

Finley was a potential late-first round pick who slipped into the third round. He allowed a shocking number of walks (12.6%) and homers (2.53 HR/9!) in his 32-inning pro debut with the new Rookie Pulaski affiliate, but he still missed bats (27.2%) and showed a bat-missing curveball. Finley’s not a hard-thrower — he was mostly 89-91 mph this summer — but he has a pretty good plan on the mound and is already making strides with his changeup.

The Yankees were able to lure Rogers, a draft-eligible sophomore, away from school following his strong showing in the Cape Cod League. He allowed six runs in 13.1 innings for Short Season Staten Island and Low-A Charleston, striking out 16 and walking three. Rogers is a three-pitch southpaw — low-90s gas, good slider, improving changeup — who can locate well, so he has a chance to remain a starter.

Degano. (Robert Pimpsner)
Degano. (Robert Pimpsner)

The Other Top Picks

The Yankees picked up a supplemental first round pick when David Robertson signed with the White Sox, and they used that pick (30th overall) on San Diego SS Kyle Holder. Holder didn’t hit in his pro debut — .213/.273/.253 (57 wRC+) around a nagging thumb injury with Short Season Staten Island — but his bat is not his calling card anyway. He’s an elite defender at shortstop, and that’s one heck of a carrying tool.

Indiana State LHP Jeff Degano was New York’s second round pick and third selection overall. He spent some time piggybacking with Kaprielian for Short Season Staten Island and allowed eleven runs in 21.1 pro innings, striking out 22 and walking nine. Degano missed the entire 2014 college season following Tommy John surgery, though he worked off the rust in the spring, and showed a low-90s heater with a sharper low-80s breaking ball. He’s not as polished as Rogers but offers more upside as a high strikeout lefty.

Late-Round Pitching Depth

In Alabama RHP Will Carter (14th) and BYU RHP Kolton Mahoney (16th), the Yankees added two promising depth arms who could follow in the footsteps of guys like Chase Whitley (15th round in 2010) and David Phelps (14th round in 2018) to give the Yankees serviceable innings. Is that exciting? No, but we’re talking about the double-digit rounds here.

Carter has maybe the best fastball the Yankees drafted this year — he sat 96-97 mph with his sinker for Short Season Staten Island. I saw him pitch a few times this summer and couldn’t believe a guy with that kind of fastball lasted until the 14th round. Carter had a 2.04 ERA (3.91 FIP) in 17.2 innings for the Baby Bombers and, not surprisingly, he generated 5.4 ground balls for every fly ball. He’s a reliever.

Mahoney has an interesting backstory. He didn’t pitch at all from 2012-13 because he was on a Mormon mission, so his arm is relatively fresh. Mahoney had a 2.29 ERA (2.99 FIP) in 55 innings for Short Season Staten Island and is a four-pitch starter: low-90s fastball plus a curveball, slider, and changeup. His command is good considering his relative inexperience and he has the stuff to stay in the rotation.

Position Player Prospects

The 2015 draft wasn’t all pitchers, just mostly pitchers. In addition to Holder, the best position player prospects the Yankees drafted this summer are Florida Southern OF Jhalan Jackson (seventh) and Florida JuCo OF Isiah Gilliam (20th). Florida JuCo OF Trey Amburgey (13th) had an incredible pro debut — he hit .335/.388/.502 (161 wRC+) in 62 games split between the GCL and Short Season Staten Island — and has tools, but is more interesting sleeper than bonafide prospect.

Jackson hit .266/.338/.452 (133 wRC+) with Short Season Staten Island and showed off both his raw power (five homers and .186 ISO) and swing-and-missability (29.8 K%). He has classic right field tools, meaning power, a strong arm, and some speed. Jackson can hit a mistake a mile but must improve against breaking balls and with pitch recognition in general to succeed at the upper levels.

The Yankees gave Gilliam a well-above slot $450,000 bonus and he showed a more advanced approach than expected in pro ball, hitting .296/.359/.415 (132 wRC+) with a 15.0% strikeout rate and a 9.8% walk rate in 42 GCL games. He hit only one homer, but power remains his calling card. Gilliam’s a switch-hitter with thump from both sides, and his athleticism allowed him to move to the outfield after being drafted as a first baseman.

Oregon State OF Jeff Hendrix (fourth), Texas JuCo IF Brandon Wagner (sixth), and Arizona HS 3B Donny Sands (eighth) are other position player draftees worth keeping an eye on. Wagner has the most power, Sands the most two-way ability, and Hendrix the highest probability. He could help as a speedy fourth outfielder down the line.

* * *

The draft is always a lot of fun and super exciting … then the novelty quickly wears off. It usually doesn’t take long for the prospects to separate themselves from the suspects. Even the lowest levels of professional baseball are hard. Almost every pro player was the best player on his college or high school team, after all.

The Yankees landed themselves a very good starter pitching prospect (Kaprielian) and a very good bullpen prospect (Adams) in the 2015 draft. They added three more solid arms (Degano, Finley, Rogers), several position players with carrying tools (Holder, Jackson, Gilliam), and a few promising late-rounders (Carter, Mahoney). There’s still plenty of time for others to emerge, but right now, six months after the draft, those guys are the keys to the 2015 draft for the Yankees.