Yawn.
Game 157: More scrubs, please
Note: Apparently the tarp is down, and we’re in a delay. The weather forecast includes showers, but they should clear up by 8. Something tells me that if the delay lasts longer than an hour or so, they might call this one. But we’ll keep you updated.
After the Yankees clinched the division yesterday, I figured we’d see a lineup full of the secondary players today. That is not the case. A few regulars made their ways into the lineup, including Jorge Posada and Johnny Damon, both of whom didn’t play yesterday. Still, we’ll see a number of players today who wouldn’t have sniffed a pennant chase.
The D lineup gets a chance against former first overall pick Luke Hochevar. That draft featured Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Kyle Drabek, and Max Scherzer on the pitching side, and Evan Longoria on the offensive side. Hochevar wasn’t a bad pick, but even discounting hindsight there were plenty better first overall picks that year. Then again, from what I remember Andrew Miller was atop the rankings in that class, but the Royals passed because of bonus demands.
After eight dominant starts to start the season in AAA, in which Hochevar allowed just eight runs in 48 innings, the Royals called him up to start on May 12. Disaster ensued. He pitched 11.2 innings over three starts that month, allowing 14 runs. June was an easier month, as Hochevar allowed 11 runs in 33.2 innings, holding opponents to a .565 OPS. It wouldn’t last. From July 4 through September 6, Hochevar allowed 53 runs over 69.2 innings, his OPS against spiking to .909.
At some point before his September 12 start against Cleveland, someone suggested he was tipping his pitches — unfortunately, the Kansas City Star article has since been removed. This, I’ve come to believe, is merely a confidence booster. Whether mental or physical, it didn’t matter for Hochevar, as he allowed five runs in five innings on September 12. He came back strong, though, pitching a complete game shutout against the White Sox on September 18. But then he slipped back into a hole, allowing six runs over five innings against Boston last week.
For the Yanks it’s Chad Gaudin, who continues his audition for a postseason roster spot. Since moving to the rotation at the beginning of September he’s been serviceable, allowing eight runs over 20 innings. The problem with Gaudin is that he doesn’t go deep into games. Just once since coming to New York has he finished six innings, that start coming against Tampa Bay. That’s hurt his win-loss record: the Yankees are 4-0 in his starts this month (and 5-0 in all of his starts), but his lone Yankee win came in his first appearance, which was in relief.
I’d expect to see lineups like this for the whole KC series. Perhaps we’ll see the regulars all play on Saturday and Sunday in Tampa Bay. But until then, enjoy the scrubs.
Lineup, in which there is only one pure right-handed hitter. Robinson Cano’s presence could suggest that Jerry Hairston isn’t quite ready to play. Johnny Damon was a late scratch. Girardi says it was a precautionary measure because of the rain.
1. Brett Gardner, CF
2. Melky Cabrera, LF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Jorge Posada, DH
5. Eric Hinske, 3B
6. Shelley Duncan, RF
7. Juan Miranda, 1B
8. Francisco Cervelli, C
9. Hipolito Ramiro Pena, SS
And on the mound, number forty-one, Chad Gaudin.
Gate 2 movement coming to a resolution
For the better part of 2009, I’ve covered the grassroots movement by a group of preservationists and Yankee fans to save Gate 2 and incorporate it into the plans for Heritage Field. While the city officials say the plan is cost-prohibitive, the group claims Gate 2 could be saved for around $1 million. Now, with the Parks Department set to gain preliminary approval for its Heritage Field plans, the Gate 2 movement may be nearing a conclusion, but early reports indicate that Gate 2 will not be a part of the Heritage Field plans.
Benjamin Peim, writing for the Daily News, has more on this development:
The city Parks Department plans to seek preliminary approval next week for plans to commemorate the stadium at Heritage Field – the future park after the House That Ruth Built meets the wrecking ball. Gate 2 is not in the plans. “If it gets approved, I think we’re through,” said John Trush, one of the fans fighting to save the gate.
The Parks Department presented its plans last May to the Design Commission, which approves all permanent works of art, architecture and landscape architecture proposed on or over city property. It granted preliminary approval, with the caveat they make revisions to better incorporate the stadium’s history.
At next week’s meeting, with Gate 2 crusaders making their pitch, the commission will decide the department’s revised plans for the old Yankee Stadium. A Parks spokesman said the revised design will have some of the old stadium’s frieze, historical plaques and markers, and one of the baseball diamonds will follow the same alignment as the old infield.
At the heart of this debate is the city’s tendency to disregard its history. As I wrote in August, early Heritage Field plans basically ignored Yankee Stadium. Although a few plaques would commemorate the spot, no aspect of Yankee Stadium would have remained, and even the replacement fields would not align with the old Yankee Stadium infield.
For the city, this disregard for history is nothing new. Lower Manhattan contains few remnants of its 400-year-old history, and even newer landmarks — Ebbets Field, the Polo Grounds — are nothing but memories we recognize from sepia-toned photographs. The Save the Gate 2 movement wanted to preserve an original part of old Yankee Stadium before it was too late. As Bronx borough historian Lloyd Ultan has repeated said, the preserved gate “would serve the same function for future generations as the Roman forums serve in Rome today.”
Now though, it is the proverbial bottom of the ninth. I’ll reserve judgment on the Parks Department’s final plans until they are released. The early word is somewhat promising but also a bit hypocritical. Although the Deparment claims that saving Gate 2 would be futile because the substantial parts of the gate date only to the 1970s renovation, most of the new plans seem to preserve Yankee Stadium II memories while glossing over the original stadium configuration. “The [Parks Department] argument falls down when you take a look at the [revised] plans for the site,” Ultan said. “Most of what they’re saving is from the 1970s structure.”
We might have to eulogize Gate 2 next week and tip our caps to those trying to save it. If the effort fails, it was a valiant one. Hopefully, the city won’t come to rue a mistake if it tears down the entire stadium while just giving a perfunctory nod to history. The House that Ruth Built deserves better.
Link Dump: Aroldis Chapman Edition
Cuban southpaw Aroldis Chapman is primed to be a hot topic this winter, and just like with every other big name free agent, the Yankees figure to be interested in his services. Let’s round up the latest news surrounding the 21-yr old…
- Major League Baseball officially declared Chapman a free agent over the weekend, so he could technically sign with any team today, if he wanted.
- Back in July when he originally defected, I asked Keith Law what he thought about him during one of his ESPN chats. Here’s what he said: “I talked to a longtime scout – I mean, been at this 40 years – in the spring who said he was the best young LHP he’d ever seen. On good days he’ll touch 100 with a slider in the upper 80s, but he hasn’t been that guy every time out – I talked to another scout who saw him last year, I believe in Beijing, who had him topping out around 90 – and there are all kinds of rumors as to why. The upside probably puts him into $40-50 million territory, if not more …”
- Here’s the PitchFX data for Chapman’s start against Japan in this year’s World Baseball Classic. As you can see, he topped out at 100.2 mph, but it looks like he tired because his velo dropped after 40 pitches or so. That’s not a really big concern, no one’s in tip-top shape in March.
- Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus used some historical data translate Chapman’s stats in Cuba to the low levels of the minors here, and while the 9.3 K/9 is pretty, the 2.5 HR/9 and 7.4 BB/9 are awful. However, four of his closest statistical comps (Brian Fuentes, Mike Gonzalez, Scott Linebrink, and Oliver Perez) have gone on to have varying degrees of big league success.
- Chapman would probably rank as one of the top 25 prospects in the game according to Baseball America’s Jim Callis, although he wouldn’t supplant Jesus Montero as the Yanks’ top farmhand. No one tops the Jesus.
- And last, but certainly not least, here’s a clip of the kid in action.
Chemistry? Yeah, chemistry
A week ago, the Houston Astros fired Cecil Cooper, their manager. Simply put, the Astros are not very good. They’re 72-83, en route to a fourth- or fifth-place finish. At over $102 million, the team’s payroll is eighth in the Majors, and they’re the second-biggest disappointment to the Mets in terms of dollars spent vs. success on the field.
In the world of baseball, Cooper was doomed. When a team performs that poorly, the manager bears the brunt of the blame, and although the General Manager and ownership are generally responsible for the product on the field, the manager is the figurehead. He represents the Front Office to his players, and if he “loses the team,” in the parlance of the game, his days at the helm are numbered. That is exactly what happened to Cooper.
In the wake of the firing, my good friend Tommy Bennett at Beyond the Box Score challenged the narrative of the managerial firing. His argument is that managers just don’t matter that much. Generally, a team doesn’t play better or worse under one manager than the next. The determining factors remain the quality of the General Manager and the make-up of the team on the field. Firing the manager is simply a public relations move. “Do front-offices think fans are so stupid to be satisfied — like vengeful gods — with human sacrifice?” Bennett asked.
I offered something of a rebuttal to this approach. Recognizing that the numbers do not show improvement, sometimes players need a change in the person coaching them. Over my baseball life, I played for a variety of coaches. Some of them had great styles, and others were coaches with whom I could not click. When the latter arrive, it is tough to gear up mentally for the game. Once the first pitch arrives, though, anyone playing baseball generally puts issues with coaches behind them and plays as their baseball instincts teach them to do. The manager might not impact the play on the field much more beyond a handful of strategic bunting and relief pitching decisions, but players may feel better playing for one coach over another.
These ramblings on managerial changes bring me to the topic of team chemistry. In the non-sabermetric world of baseball narratives, team chemistry is popular motif. Teams that have fun together play better together. Or something like that.
This season, we’ve seen the team chemistry narrative surround the New York Yankees. A.J. Burnett and his walk-off pies are creating a looser atmosphere, and Nick Swisher is so care-free. A-Rod is walking around without a gorilla on his back, and Johnny Damon says the 2009 Yankees remind him of the 2004 Red Sox, the kings of chemistry. Plus, Melky Cabrera’s and Robinson Cano’s obvious enthusiasm for the game and for their teammates is so hard to mess.
Leave it up to Derek to rain on this parade. During the post-game, post-clinch interview last night, Joe Morgan and Jon Miller asked Jeter about team chemistry, and his response was telling. “I think winning has a lot to do with that,” Jeter said. “The more you win, the more fun you have.”
Straight from the horse’s mouth comes the definitive word on chemistry. It makes for a compelling story, but that’s all it is. The chemistry narrative is one that helps fans relate to a team they see winning. But just as a group of 11-year-olds playing Little League have more fun when they win, so too do a group of professional baseball players. Winning creates chemistry; chemistry does not create winning.
Most exciting series of the week will determine Yanks’ fate
The Yanks settled almost every playoff issue yesterday when they clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Red Sox and the Angels have magic numbers of two for the Wild Card and AL West, both over the Rangers, so with just six games left those races are about over. Only one playoff spot remains undecided: the AL Central, where the Twins have rallied to pull within two of the Tigers after being seven games back at the end of play on September 6. It has led up to this week’s four-game set, one which should decide the division.
It will also decide the Yankees ALDS opponent. A few weeks ago it seemed like the Tigers without question, as they had that seven game lead. But the Twins have gone 15-9 this month, and even more impressively have gone 11-2 since Justin Morneau last played in a game on September 12. He will miss the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his lower back. His teammates have more than picked up the slack, and this week they get a real chance to once again steal the AL Central from the Tigers, as they did in 2006.
The Twins, for their part, will have to take three out of four. Splitting would make things tougher in the final series, where the Twins would have to take two of three from the Royals and the Tigers would have to drop two of three to the White Sox, forcing a one-game playoff. It would be the second straight year in which the Twins would play a 163rd game. They dropped a 1-0 heartbreaker to the White Sox last year on the season’s final (and bonus) day.
While the Twins make a great baseball story, we’re still focused on what this will mean for the Yankees. Would they prefer Detroit or Minnesota? The question might sound like a no-brainer at first. The Twins are without their slugging first baseman and have generally been the inferior team during the season. But they’re the hot team, and hot teams can be hell on any team in the playoffs, even the team with the best record in baseball.
Joe Mauer, a near lock for MVP because of the Twins’ recent run, heads the offense. He not only leads the AL in OPS, but does it from a squatting position, making the production even more valuable. The catcher with the next highest OPS is Jorge Posada, and the two aren’t particularly close. Beyond that the Twins don’t have much, especially without Morneau, though they’ve seen a number of guys step up in the first baseman’s absence. Delmon Young is OPSing above .800 since the 12th, and Mike Cuddyer has a Pujols-esque 1.152 OPS in that span. Beyond those guys, both Jason Kubel and Denard Span have had solid seasons, with OPS+s of 137 and 120, respectively.
The reason the Yanks want to face the Twins is their pitching. It is a far cry from the 2006 staff which featured Johan Santana and a dominant Francisco Liriano. This year their best pitcher, in terms of ERA, has been Nick Blackburn, who sports a Wang-esque 4.2 K/9 rate. There’s also Scott Baker, whose 4.48 ERA has to be the highest ever for a pitcher with a 1.18 WHIP. Following those two is Carl Pavano, who has pitched well since the mid-season trip from Cleveland to Minneapolis. The one reason these three have pitched well: each has a BB/9 rate at or below 2.0. That helps make up for the lack of strikeouts.
The story with the Tigers revolves around one pitcher: Justin Verlander. After a rough 2008 he’s bounced back into his ace role. His dominant stuff makes him an undesirable playoff opponent, though he’d match up against CC Sabathia, no slouch himself. Edwin Jackson is having a fine season, though he’s fallen back to earth lately. After holding the Yankees to two runs over seven innings on July 19, Jackson has allowed 42 runs in 80.1 innings, a 4.71 ERA. His strikeout to walks ratio in that span is just barely over 2.00. So while he seemed like a tough playoff opponent the last time the Yanks saw him, he’s been something less over the past two months. After that it’s Rick Porcello, rookie extraordinaire, who boasts a 4.14 ERA over 158.2 innings this season. He’ll be the third starter in the playoffs, which is all the Tigers will need in the first round.
On the offensive side the Tigers are no great team. They rank 10th out of 14 AL teams in runs scored and 9th in OPS. Their only real weapon is Miguel Cabrera, though he is quite the hitter. His .951 OPS leads the team by far. The only other starter above .800 is Ryan Rayburn, and even that is over less than half a season. He’s been hot as can be in September, posting a .348/.404/.652 line in 42 PA. He’ll need to stay hot if the Tigers are going to have a chance.
(Also, is Brandon Inge’s .409 SLG the lowest ever for a guy with 27 homers? It has to be, right?)
Overall, the Twins are probably the weaker team. Their pitching lacks the top of the rotation arm that is Justin Verlander. When presented with the choice of facing Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello or Baker, Pavano, and Blackburn, it’s the latter in a landslide. They do have more offensive weapons, but a few of those guys — Cuddyer and Young, notably — are riding hot streaks that far exceed their season production. If one or both cools down before the 7th, it could be death for the Twins. Then again, the Tigers have Miggy and little else. Yet a few of their guys — Granderson, Inge, Rayburn — could be trouble in the playoffs if they’re hot.
Yes, I’d rather see the Yanks face the Twins, but it’s a tough call. Either way, the Yanks will be playing an inferior team. That doesn’t mean they’ll breeze through the first round, but it’s usually preferable to play the weaker team that got hot at the end. As we’ve seen in many years past, a late-season hot streak, or even a late-season cold skid in the case of the 2006 Tigers, carries over the break into the mid-week playoff start. It’s a fresh slate there, and because of that I’d rather have the Yankees face the weakest team overall. That would be the Twins.
Fan Confidence Poll: September 28th, 2009
Record Last Week: 5-1 (30 RS, 19 RA)
Season Record: 100-56 (883 RS, 724 RA), 8.5 games up, clinched AL East, best record in AL, best record in MLB
Opponents This Week: vs. Kansas City (3 games), @ Tampa (3 games)
Top stories from last week:
- After a disappointing series loss in Seattle, the Yanks headed south to LAnaheim to try to exorcise their demons against the Angels. After dropping the first game on Monday thanks to some questionable bullpen moves, the Yanks picked up a much needed and hard fought win the next night, clinching a playoff spot in the process. AJ Burnett was strong and Ian Kennedy returned as the Yanks picked up the series win on Wednesday.
- Joba Chamberlain kicked off a rather meaningless series against Boston (as meaningless as a Yanks-Sox series can be, anyway) with his best start in months, while Alex Rodriguez & Co. pounded Jon Lester. CC Sabathia was the man yet again the next day, then a clutch two-run single by Hideki Matsui gave the Yanks the sweep, the division, and home field advantage.
- The start by Burnett was big because he had been a bit of a concern of late, and the same goes for Joba, who wasn’t guaranteed a spot in the playoff rotation. Sabathia has received some extra rest lately to keep him fresh for October.
- David Robertson hoped to return from his elbow issue in time for the Sawx series, but it wasn’t meant to be. It looks like he’ll get into a game against the Royals, though.
- Top 2007 international signee Kelvin DeLeon was named the second best prospect in the Rookie level Gulf Coast League.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.