Here is tonight’s open thread. The Knicks, Rangers, and Islanders are all playing, and there are a handful of college basketball games on the docket too. You folks know how these things work by now, so have at it.
According to George King, the Yankees are among the teams to check in with the Tigers about left-hander Justin Wilson. Detroit is kinda sorta trying to get younger and trim payroll — they salary dumped Cameron Maybin to clear a spot for JaCoby Jones earlier this offseason — and cashing in Wilson as a trade chip given the current bullpen market seems like a good idea.
The Tigers are looking for “controllable Major League arms” for Wilson, says King, and the Yankees passed because they found that too prohibitive. Funny how things have turned out, eh? The Tigers gave up two controllable arms (Luis Cessa and Chad Green) to get Wilson last winter, and now they’re looking to flip him for basically the same package. Anyway, I have some thoughts on this.
1. When did the Yankees ask about Wilson? Was it before or after agreeing to a deal with Aroldis Chapman? If it was before, the Yankees may have only been doing their due diligence and looking at backup plans in case Chapman went elsewhere. If it was after, then we know they’re still seriously looking to improve their middle relief. Earlier this winter Brian Cashman indicated he wants to improve his bullpen beyond adding a closer, so it’s entirely possible the Yankees are thinking Chapman and Wilson, not Chapman or Wilson.
2. If the Yankees still want a lefty, just sign a free agent. During the Winter Meetings last week we heard the Yankees want to add a lefty reliever this offseason to join (or replace?) Tommy Layne. Not just Chapman, but a middle innings guy for left-on-left matchup work. Wilson is certainly qualified to do that — he’s overqualified, actually, since he can get out righties as well — but why trade prospects for a lefty reliever when there are so many free agents available?
Those are 2015-16 numbers against left-handed batters. Four of those players are free agents. Why trade prospects for Wilson when someone like Blevins or Logan can do the job just as well, if not better? Perhaps the “gets righties out too” part is too great to ignore. The Yankees have a matchup left-on-left reliever in Layne. If they are planning to carry two middle southpaws, it would be nice if one could get righties out, and Wilson can do that. The other four guys in the table generally can not.
3. Wilson wasn’t as good in 2016 as he was in 2015. During his one season with the Yankees, Wilson was really awesome. He was a legitimate high-leverage reliever Joe Girardi shoehorned into the seventh inning role, but Wilson could have easily gotten outs in the eighth or even ninth inning. And sometimes he did. This past season though, Wilson’s performance took a step back.
Improved ground ball and walks rates coupled with a slight decline in strikeout rate is generally a good thing, I’d say. For Wilson this year, it wasn’t. He was more hittable overall — opponents hit .223/.293/.309 against Wilson in 2015 and .263/.316/.392 in 2016 — and it showed up in his ERA.
Perhaps not coincidentally, Wilson had some elbow problems this summer. He was shut down for a few days with soreness in June, then, in August, he needed a cortisone shot. Wilson was so inconsistent this past season that Bless You Boys took a deep dive. It’s entirely possible the Yankees traded Wilson at exactly the right time, before he started to break down.
4. The trade looks pretty good now, doesn’t it? Understandably, many folks didn’t like the Wilson deal when it went down. He was pretty great for the Yankees and they traded him for two unknowns. I myself had never heard of Green, and I’m as big a baseball nerd as you’ll find. Cessa’s name might have rung a bell only because he was the second piece in last year’s Yoenis Cespedes trade.
This past season, Cessa and Green showed bonafide Major League stuff during their relatively brief big league cameos. Maybe they’re only relievers long-term — I think Cessa has a much better chance to start than Green at this point in time — but they are big leaguers, not prospects, and that’s pretty great. Turning a reliever with three years of control into two pitchers with six years of control each was a nifty, albeit unpopular at the time, move by Cashman.
The Yankees right now are very much open to trading pricey veterans for prospects. They sold big time at the deadline and continued selling in the offseason by sending Brian McCann to the Astros for two Single-A pitching prospects. The Yankees have reportedly dangled Brett Gardner and Chase Headley in trade talks this winter, and I’m sure they’d love to move Jacoby Ellsbury too, but, you know.
Two teams that stood out as obvious suitors for Gardner addressed their outfield needs last week. The Nationals traded for Adam Eaton and the Cardinals signed Dexter Fowler. Both clubs needed a defensively competent center fielder — Gardner plays left for the Yankees in deference to Ellsbury, but he could still handle center full-time, no problem — and a top of the order on-base guy. The Nats and Cards went in another direction.
Gardner is a good player, not a great one, and the two years and $23M left on his contract is not unreasonable. And besides, the Yankees have shown a willingness to eat money to facilitate trades. They did it with Carlos Beltran at the deadline and McCann a few weeks ago. Salary shouldn’t be a problem. The problem is finding a team that actually needs Gardner, a defense first outfielder with on-base skills. Here are the remaining potential trade partners I came up with.
Current Outfield: Adam Jones in center and Hyun-Soo Kim in left, with Joey Rickard and Rule 5 Draft picks Anthony Santander and Aneury Tavarez candidates for right. They also have the option of moving Chris Davis to right field and playing prospect Trey Mancini at first.
Why Would They Want Gardner? He’s a heck of a lot better than Rickard and the Rule 5 Draft kids — Santander has never played above High-A — and he’d give the O’s a legitimate leadoff hitter, something they really lack. Jones was their leadoff hitter most of this past season. Yeah. Also, the Orioles have an opening at DH, remember. They could put Gardner in left, Kim at DH (where he fits best), and stick with the kids in right.
So Are They A Fit? Yes with the caveat that they’re an AL East rival, and intradivision trades are rare. I don’t think that closes the door completely, it just makes it unlikely. For what it’s worth, Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch he’d have no problem trading with the Orioles.
“If I can trade with the Red Sox and the Mets, I can trade with the Orioles. I can trade with anybody. If it’s in our best interest, whether it’s short- or long-term, it doesn’t matter what the other teams get. Does it make sense for us? If it happens to be them, I don’t really care.”
What do the O’s have to offer the Yankees for Gardner? Geez, beats me. Their farm system isn’t in great shape (here’s their MLB.com top 30 prospects list) and I doubt they’d be willing to give up pieces from their big league roster. I’m sure the Yankees could find some combination of minor leaguers to make it work though.
Current Outfield: Tyler Naquin in center and Lonnie Chisenhall in right. Brandon Guyer and Abe Almonte are expected to hold down left field until Michael Brantley returns from shoulder surgery.
Why Would They Want Gardner? Not too many reasons at this point. The Indians seem focused on adding a big middle of the order bat to share first base and DH with Carlos Santana, and I suppose if those plans go awry, they could circle back and import Gardner to be part of a rotating DH system. He’d give them a more traditional leadoff hitter too. They used Santana at leadoff most of last season, which was somewhat a waste of his power because he batted with fewer men on base.
So Are They A Fit? Nah, I don’t think so. Naquin had a nightmare postseason but a very good regular season, good enough to finish third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting and earn a starting spot in 2017. They’ll ride it out with Almonte and Guyer until Brantley returns, which could be as soon as April.
Current Outfield: Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez on the corners, with Anthony Gose and JaCoby Jones in the mix for center. Tyler Collins could get a crack at the job too, though he’s best in a corner.
Why Would They Want Gardner? Gardner is much better than the group of players vying for Detroit’s center field job at the moment. Of course, the Tigers traded away Cameron Maybin earlier this winter, and they seem to be scaling back on payroll a bit. Salary dumping Maybin only to turn around and acquire Gardner would be a bit weird, don’t you think?
Of course, plans change, and the Tigers are looking at a more winnable AL Central right now. The Twins stink, the White Sox are selling, and the Royals might have to sell at the deadline since basically their entire core will hit free agency next winter. The Tigers won 86 games in 2016 despite going 4-14 (4-14!) against the Indians. What are the odds of that happening again? Small. Gardner would improve their chances in a much more winnable division.
So Are They A Fit? Maybe! I think the Yankees would have to eat money to make a trade happen, which I doubt would be a deal-breaker. If the Yankees ate money to trade Beltran and McCann, I’m sure they’d do the same for Gardner.
Current Outfield: Some combination of Khris Davis, Matt Joyce, Brett Eibner, and Jake Smolinski. Did you know Khris Davis hit 42 home runs in 2016? True story.
Why Would They Want Gardner? The A’s are in the market for a center fielder this offseason, it’s been reported everywhere, and they’ve most recently been connected to Jarrod Dyson of the Royals. Gardner is a very similar player (lefty hitting leadoff type with speed and defense) who happens to be much more expensive. But again, if the Yankees are willing to eat money, his contract may not be an obstacle.
So Are They A Fit? Maybe. The Athletics are a weird team that seems to be stuck between going for it and rebuilding. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they traded for an outfielder making $23M over the next two years despite losing at least 93 games the last two seasons. They’re weird like that.
San Francisco Giants
Current Outfield: Denard Span in center and Hunter Pence in right, with Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker slated to platoon in left. Gorkys Hernandez has a leg up on a bench job.
Why Would They Want Gardner? Left field is wide open. Williamson and Parker did an okay job as platoon partners while Pence was on the disabled list this summer — they hit a combined .230/.338/.402 with eleven homers in 278 plate appearances in 2016, but also struck out 28.5% of the time — though neither is a long-term building block. Williamson is the young one at 26. Parker turns 28 in three weeks.
Gardner would, at a minimum, give the Giants an above-average defender for that spacious left field at AT&T Park. In also guessing he’d outproduce a Williamson/Parker platoon at the plate over a full 162-game season. The Mark Melancon signing pushed San Francisco over the luxury tax threshold and they don’t want to go much higher, so Gardner’s contract could be an issue. Then again, the Giants are built to win right now, while Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner are still in their primes, and left field is a sore spot.
So Are They A Fit? Yes, definitely. The Giants have enough prospects to cobble together a trade package (here is their MLB.com top 30 prospects list) and the Yankees could eat money to make things work on San Francisco’s end with regards to the luxury tax. The Giants are a fit. A great fit. No doubt.
Current Outfield: Leonys Martin in the middle with some combination of Seth Smith, Ben Gamel, Guillermo Heredia, Mitch Haniger, and possibly even Danny Valencia in the corners.
Why Would They Want Gardner? As an alternative to that hodgepodge of platoon veterans and mid-range prospects slated for the corners. The Mariners are trying to win right now. I mean, they should be. Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, and Nelson Cruz aren’t going to be this productive forever, so anything Seattle can do to improve their short-term chances qualifies as a good move in my book. Gardner represents an upgrade.
So Are They A Fit? Yes in theory, no in reality. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has said his team is too left-handed at the moment, which Gardner would only exacerbate. Also, they seem committed to playing those kids in the outfield. So while there is a fit on paper here, I don’t see it happening.
Current Outfield: Carlos Gomez in center, Shin-Soo Choo in right, and Nomar Mazara in left. Delino DeShields Jr. and Ryan Rua are the depth options.
Why Would They Want Gardner? The Rangers have no first baseman or designated hitter at the moment. Adding Gardner would allow them to slide Mazara over to right field, his natural position, and put Choo at DH full-time, which is where he belongs at this point. Texas has money and prospects to trade, plus an obvious opening for Gardner in the lineup and on the field.
So Are They A Fit? Yes. Whether the Rangers are willing to make a trade is another matter. They may prefer to hang on to their prospects and address those first base and DH openings through free agency. There are still plenty of those players available.
Toronto Blue Jays
Current Outfield: lol
Why Would They Want Gardner? Kevin Pillar is still the center fielder. That much is clear. But after losing out on Fowler, the Blue Jays have Melvin Upton, Steve Pearce, Ezequiel Carrera, and Dalton Pompey penciled in as their corner outfielders. That might be the worst outfield unit in baseball. Gardner would give them a legitimate left fielder and leadoff hitter, allowing them to slide Devon Travis lower in the order, in a run producing spot. That would be a big help considering they effectively replaced Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista with Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce. I’m sure that’ll work out fine.
So Are They A Fit? Yes in the same way the Orioles are a fit. The Blue Jays could use Gardner, for sure, but to get him, they’d have to swing a rare intradivision trade. It’s not impossible. Just really tough to do. There’s a reason you don’t see them often. Everyone’s afraid of losing a trade to a division rival.
The 2016 Winter Meetings came and went last week with a fair amount of action around the league. It wasn’t a crazy week like we often see, mostly because the current free agent class stinks. The Yankees handled maybe their biggest piece of offseason business by signing Aroldis Chapman to resume closing duties, and that’s about it. I have some thoughts on the Winter Meetings and other stuff as well.
1. I remain unconvinced the Yankees would have shifted gears and focused on Kenley Jansen had they missed out on Chapman. I really think they want to keep their first round pick. Sure, there’s always a point where Jansen’s asking price drops low enough that giving up the pick is worthwhile, but it was never going to get to that point. The five-year, $80M deal he took from the Dodgers yesterday proves it. I think Plan A was Chapman, and Plan B was someone like Brad Ziegler or Greg Holland, not Jansen. At the moment, the Yankees hold the 17th overall pick in the 2017 draft, and it’ll drop to 16th once Ian Desmond’s deal with the Rockies is official. The 16th pick is not a premium pick at the top of the draft, but it’s juuust high enough to get someone like Blake Rutherford, a talented top ten guy who slips for whatever reason. (Rutherford was the 18th overall pick.) With the youth movement in full swing, I think the Yankees want to keep that pick. It was Chapman or bust in the ninth inning.
2. A theory: It costs more to acquire a reliever at the trade deadline than it does in the offseason. I say that because it absolutely blows my mind the Royals got Jorge Soler and nothing else for one full season of Wade Davis while the Yankees got four players, including a tippy top prospect in Gleyber Torres, for a half-season of Chapman. The same team (Cubs) made both trades too. Did Davis’ forearm injury drag his stock down that much? It’s not like he finished the year hurt. He was healthy (and dominant) in September. Maybe the Royals are just really high on Soler. That has to be it. Anyway, the offseason is the time for optimism and patience. There is less urgency to get the piece that can put you over the top. At least it seems that way to me. But, at the trade deadline, when you’re staring your roster in the face and that urgency exists, clubs appear to be more willing to pay big for that final piece. That could very well be what happened with Chapman. By any objective measure, a full season of Davis should cost more than a half-season of Chapman. Trades are not objective though. They’re completely subjective based on the state of the team and the rest of the league.
3. In the realm of non-roster invitees, Ruben Tejada is a really nice pickup. The Yankees got him on a minor league deal yesterday. He had a .340 OBP in over 800 plate appearances with the Mets from 2014-15, plus he’s a good defensive player, so Tejada’s someone who can do a little of something on both sides of the ball. His 2016 season was littered with injuries — he also had his leg broken by Chase Utley’s take-out slide in the 2015 NLDS, remember– and now that he’ll have a healthy and normal offseason, he should be good to go come Spring Training. At a minimum, Tejada figures to compete with Ronald Torreyes for the backup infielder’s job. Should the Yankees find a taker for Chase Headley in the coming weeks, Tejada could end up coming to camp with a chance to play third base everyday. I don’t love that idea, but it is a possibility. Tejada is only 27 and he has some on-base/defense skills. Not a bad little minor league contract pickup.
4. I’m really curious to see how Shohei Otani affects the 2017-18 international signing period. MLB insists they won’t create an exemption for him, probably because they don’t want to set any kind of precedent, which means he will count against the international hard cap and have his earning potential severely limited. Teams have been scouting Latin America and lining up deals for years now. That’s not an exaggeration. Do those deals suddenly get put on hold because Otani may be posted? Or do teams follow through and forget about Otani? Teams are allowed to trade for an additional 75% of cap space, which means the maximum pool for the Yankees is $8.3125M. The problem? You can only trade cap space after the signing period opens July 2nd. It’s not something the Yankees could do right now to get their ducks in a row. It’s risky, man. Do you sign those Latin American kids in July and punt on Otani, or wait and hope to get Otani, knowing full well there’s a chance you won’t get him or any Latin American players? All the top kids will still sign in July. They’re not going to wait to get paid. Intrigue!
5. You know that monster 2018-19 free agent class everyone is looking forward too? The Bryce Harper/Manny Machado class? The talent pool is already starting to thin out. Andrew McCutchen might not be an elite player anymore. Matt Harvey had surgery to treat Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which is potentially very serious. Dallas Keuchel’s performance slipped big time this summer. Heck, so did Harper’s. And, as uncomfortable as this is to talk about from a baseball perspective, Jose Fernandez died tragically in September. Last offseason, when everyone started to put the pieces together and saw just how talent-laden that 2018-19 free agent class could be, we all know the talent pool would thin out. Guys would sign extensions, others would get hurt, others would see their performance slip. And it’s happening already. I seriously doubt the Yankees or any other team is planning to pursue one specific free agent two years in advance, but I do think the Yankees are hoping to reset their luxury tax rate and have more payroll flexibility for that 2018-19 offseason in case they decide to spend big.
6. My first thought when the Yankees non-tendered and lost Jacob Lindgren was Al Aceves 2.0, but nah. Different situations. Aceves broke his clavicle in a bicycle incident during the 2010-11 offseason, and hey, accidents happen, but Aceves wasn’t supposed to be on his bike in the first place because he was rehabbing the back injury that sidelined him almost all season. Also, Aceves was kinda crazy, so the Yankees dumped him. With Lindgren, the Yankees wanted to get him off the 40-man roster and re-sign him to a minor league deal, which they’ve done a few times before. Slade Heathcott, Domingo German, and Vicente Campos all went through the non-tender/re-sign move. The Braves jumped in and gave Lindgren in a sweetheart deal though — they gave him a $425,000 bonus upfront and will pay him a $600,000 salary while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in 2017, so yeah — and there’s no way he could have turned that down. Sucks. I still thinking Lindgren can be really good when healthy, like a bonafide high-leverage reliever who faces lefties and righties, but he’s not healthy right now, and the Yankees don’t have any spare 40-man space. My guess is he (and Luis Torrens?) will not be the first good prospect the Yankees lose for nothing over the next few months. The farm system is robust and there are only so many roster spots to go around.
8:57pm: Jon Heyman says Tejada will make $1.35M at the big league level.
5:00pm: The first non-roster invitee has arrived. The Yankees have signing infielder Ruben Tejada to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, his agent told Jerry Crasnick. They’ve had interest in him in the past and were connected to him at the Winter Meetings last week.
Tejada, who is still only 27, spent the 2016 season with the Cardinals and Giants, hitting .167/.247/.242 (34 wRC+) in a mere 78 plate appearances across 36 big league games. He also put up a .301/.338/.413 (99 wRC+) batting line in 40 games with San Francisco’s Triple-A affiliate. Quad problems hampered him early in the season.
As recently as one year ago, Tejada was a regular with the Mets and hit .261/.338/.350 (94 wRC+) with three homers in 407 plate appearances. He has experience at the three non-first base infield positions and is a good defender, which makes him a good utility infielder candidate. Tejada will catch the ball and he’s not a total zero with the bat.
The Yankees have a pretty nifty utility infielder in Ronald Torreyes, though I imagine Tejada will get every opportunity to win a bench job in camp, especially since Torreyes has options remaining. Also, the Yankees are short on Triple-A infielders right now, so Tejada helps fill that organizational need.
Here is the open thread for the evening. The Ravens and Patriots are the Monday Night Football game, plus the Nets are playing and there’s one college hoops game on as well. That’s all. Talk about anything and everything here, except politics and religion. Thanks in advance.
I totally missed this two weeks ago, but the crew at Baseball Prospectus posted their annual look at the top ten prospects in the Yankees’ farm system. The list is available for everyone. The rest of the piece is behind the paywall, unfortunately. Here’s the top ten with some thoughts:
- SS Gleyber Torres
- OF Clint Frazier
- SS Jorge Mateo
- OF Blake Rutherford
- LHP Justus Sheffield
- RHP James Kaprielian
- OF Aaron Judge
- RHP Albert Abreu
- SS Tyler Wade
- RHP Chance Adams
1. Still high on Mateo. It’s very easy to be down on Mateo these days. He didn’t have a great regular season, he was suspended two weeks for an undisclosed violation of team policy, and he hasn’t done much in winter ball either. There’s no other way to slice it, 2016 has been really disappointing for Mateo. At the same time, he just turned 21 in June and is immensely talented. He has the most exciting tools in the farm system, I think, even moreso than Gleyber. Development isn’t always linear. There are often bumps in the road and hopefully that’s all Mateo experienced this year, a bump(s) in the road. Something he can learn from and use as a development tool going forward. Baseball Prospectus still has Mateo very high on their top ten list and it’s not in any way unreasonable given his tools.
2. Down on Judge. On the other hand, the Baseball Prospectus crew is down on Judge, who they ranked as the 18th best prospect in baseball prior to 2016. Based on their preseason rankings, both Mateo (No. 65) and Kaprielian (not ranked) managed to jump Judge despite a disappointing season and an injury-marred season, respectively. I get why folks are down on Judge. He struggled in his brief big league cameo and there have long been concerns about whether big league pitchers would exploit his massive strike zone. We saw a 95 plate appearance manifestation of those concerns. Unless Judge shrinks about five inches, there’s not much he can do about the strike zone. That’s life. But he has a history of starting slow at each new level before making the necessary adjustments, and until he shows otherwise, I feel like we have to assume the same is happening at the MLB level. The biggest difference between Judge and other prospects on this list, like Mateo and Kaprielian and Gleyber, is that he’s had a chance to fail at the big league level. Everyone else is getting the benefit of the doubt because they haven’t had that same opportunity.
3. Wade gets some love. I’m a pretty big Tyler Wade fan and it seems I’m not alone. Ranking him ninth in this system is pretty lofty. “Wade is a favorite of many scouts and evaluators because of his energy, playing style, and instincts. He’ll grow on you the more you see him,” said the write-up. Wade is not a future star or anything, and that’s kind of a problem in a system with this many shortstops. Torres and Mateo, two guys with star-caliber tools, are right behind him climbing the minor league ladder. Others like Hoy Jun Park and Wilkerman Garcia have higher ceilings too. Unseating Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro at the MLB level won’t be easy either. The Yankees had Wade play some outfield in the Arizona Fall League to prepare him for a utility role, which is by far his best path to MLB playing time with New York. If I were another team with a long-term need a shortstop (coughPadrescough), I’d be all over the Yankees trying to get Wade in a deal. He hits for no power and won’t wow you with big OPS or wRC+ numbers, but a lefty hitter who can hit for average, draw walks and get on base, steal bases, and play good defense at shortstop is a nifty little player.
4. Others of note. Each year the Baseball Prospectus farm system write-ups include information on players beyond the top ten. Among the other Yankees singled out: 3B Miguel Andujar, LHP Jordan Montgomery, OF Dustin Fowler, OF Billy McKinney, RHP Dillon Tate, and RHP Erik Swanson. Swanson’s an interesting guy who is easy to overlook in this system. He came over in the Carlos Beltran trade. “Swanson touched as high as 98 in a June viewing, regularly sitting 91-96. He also flashed a hard slider and a more usable change than one often sees from a power profile at the Low-A level,” said the write-up. Swanson turned 23 in September and he missed most of 2015 with a forearm issue, but he’s healthy now and has enough stuff to possibly start long-term. If not, don’t be shocked if he moves very quickly as a fastball/slider reliever.
5. The top ten 25-and-under talents. My favorite part of Baseball Prospectus’ annual system write-ups is their list of the top ten talents age 25 and under in the organization. For the Yankees, the 25-and-under list is essentially the same as top ten above, except with C Gary Sanchez at the top, 1B Greg Bird sixth (between Rutherford and Sheffield), and RHP Luis Severino tenth (behind Judge). A year ago Judge and Severino were first and second. Now they’re ninth and tenth. Part of that is Judge’s strikeouts and Severino’s inability to pitch well as a starter, but it also speaks to how the Yankees’ long-term outlook has improved over the last 12 months. Sanchez emerged as a force and so many young players — five of the team’s top eight prospects, according to Baseball Prospectus — have been added to the system within the last six months or so. It’s really hard to read these prospect lists and not get very, very excited about where the Yankees are heading.