Previewing the Yankees’ upcoming September call-ups

Matty H. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty)
Matty H. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

This coming Friday, on September 1st, all 30 big league teams will be allowed to expand their active rosters from 25 players up to 40 players. Most teams end up going with 30-35 players in September. Maybe two or three clubs a year actually go with the maximum 40 players. Either way, rosters are going to expand in a few days and every club has reinforcements coming.

The Yankees have been fairly aggressive with September call-ups in recent years. Aggressive in the sense that they call up a lot of extra players in general, especially on September 1st. Last year they called up six players on September 1st. The year before it was seven players. The year before that it was nine players. Nine call-ups on September 1st! Good gravy. The Yankees tend to call up plenty of help the first day possible. I’m surprised more teams don’t do the same.

So, with September call-ups only a few days away, there’s no better time to look ahead at who the Yankees could bring to the big leagues once rosters expand. Let’s take a trip through the organizational depth chart. Come with me, won’t you?

The Injured Guys

Might as well start here. The Yankees currently have five players on the MLB disabled list: Luis Cessa, Garrett Cooper, Clint Frazier, Matt Holliday, and Michael Pineda. Pineda’s done for the season following Tommy John surgery. I’m not really sure what’s up with Cessa. We haven’t heard any updates on him since he was sidelined by rib cage issue on August 15th. Should Cessa get healthy before the end of the season, he’ll join the Yankees, I’m sure.

Both Holliday and Cooper are on minor league rehab assignments right now and in all likelihood both will be activated Friday, the first day rosters expand. Frazier recently started taking swings and going through some other baseball activities, so he’s a little further behind Cooper and Holliday. Once he gets healthy and goes through the requisite minor league rehab assignment — assuming there are still minor league games being played at that time — Frazier will be activated and join the Yankees for the rest of the season. Pretty straightforward here.

The September Locks

Monty. (Adam Glanzman/Getty)
Monty. (Adam Glanzman/Getty)

As always, the safest bets for September call-ups are guys who were up earlier this season. There are eleven such players on the 40-man roster and not in the big leagues right now: Miguel Andujar, Tyler Austin, Gio Gallegos, Domingo German, Ben Heller, Ronald Herrera, Kyle Higashioka, Jonathan Holder, Bryan Mitchell, Jordan Montgomery, and Tyler Wade. All eleven of those guys have seen big league time this year. Some more than others.

Like I said, the Yankees have been fairly aggressive with their September 1st call-ups in recent years, so I expect several of these players to join the Yankees on Friday. Montgomery is an absolutely lock. He’s going to get a September call-up and step right back into the rotation, I suspect. Mitchell, Holder, and Gallegos have been the primary up-and-down relievers this season, and since the Yankees like to load up on pitching reinforcements whenever possible, my money is on all three guys showing up to Yankee Stadium this Friday.

Austin and Wade are all obvious September call-ups candidates as well, though there is a catch here. They were both sent down recently and need to wait out the ten-day rule first. Wade was sent down Friday, when Starlin Castro was activated, so he can’t come back up until Monday. Austin was sent down Saturday to make room for Greg Bird. He can’t come back until Tuesday. The ten-day rule is a bit of a hassle. It is what it is.

The Guys Who Might Have To Wait

As noted, there are eleven players on the 40-man roster and not in the big leagues right now. I expect four to be called up on September 1st: Mitchell, Montgomery, Gallegos, and Holder. That’s all. The other seven will have to wait a little bit for different reasons. Austin and Wade have to wait because of the ten-day rule. Here’s my thinking on the remaining five guys.

1. Higashioka and Herrera are both hurt. Pretty good reason for not calling them upright away, I’d say. Herrera is currently pitching in rookie ball rehab games and is expected to join the Double-A Trenton rotation (or maybe Triple-A Scranton rotation) for the postseason next week. Herrera was called up twice this year as an emergency fill-in. It was one of those “crap we need a long man and he’s the only guy lined up” situations. Well, two of those.

Higashioka, meanwhile, is currently out with a shoulder injury that is not believed to be serious. There’s even some talk he could be ready to go by time rosters expand Friday. That would be cool. A third catcher is a September staple, and keep in mind Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine have suspensions pending. They’re appealing, though at some point they’re going to have serve at least part of their suspensions, and having Higashioka on the active roster will make it much easier to get by without those guys. He has to get healthy first though.

2. The Yankees have mostly avoided Andujar and Heller. There have been plenty of opportunities to call up both guys this year, and they have seen big league time. Andujar had the one great game against the White Sox. Heller has made two appearances with the Yankees this season, most notably throwing two scoreless innings in the 16-inning win at Fenway Park right after the All-Star break.

Andujar. (Times Leader)
Andujar. (Times Leader)

The Yankees could have easily — and justifiably — called up Andujar and/or Heller on several other occasions this season, but choose to go in another direction. With Andujar, he’s a bonafide prospect who needs to improve his defense, so keeping him in Triple-A to work at the hot corner rather than play sporadically at the MLB is understandable. Heller? I’m not sure. The Yankees seem to prefer Gallegos and Holder for whatever reason. I’m a Heller guy. The Yankees aren’t.

Point is, because these two have been passed over for call-ups these last few weeks, I don’t think they will be September 1st call-ups when rosters expand. Both will likely have to wait until the Triple-A postseason ends, which could be as early as next weekend or as late as September 19th. There aren’t going to be many at-bats available for Andujar, and with Heller, how many mop-up relievers does a team need? I think both will have to wait until the RailRiders are done playing.

3. German needs to pitch. From June 6th through July 28th, a span of 52 days, German made eight appearances and threw 350 total pitches. That’s all. This kid’s a starter! But he spent so much time with the Yankees as their seldom used eighth reliever that it took a few Triple-A outings to get stretched all the way back out. German has thrown 115 total innings this season and that’s not much at all. This is his first full season since Tommy John surgery, so I imagine the Yankees are monitoring his workload closely. I still think they want German to log more innings this season. That’s why I think he’ll stay with Scranton, start every fifth day through the end of their season, then come up to sit in the bullpen.

Non-40-Man Roster Guys

Every once in a while the Yankees will take a player who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season, add him to the 40-man roster, and call him up September. Rather than wait to add the player to the 40-man at the November deadline, they get a head start on things and call him up in September. Romine received his first taste of the big leagues that way in September 2011. The Yankees did the same thing with James Pazos in 2015.

That does not happen often, however, and I do not think the Yankees will do it this September. Gleyber Torres is hurt, Domingo Acevedo has been shut down due to his workload, and Albert Abreu missed a big chunk of the season with injuries and has yet to pitch above High-A. They’ll all be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season and the Yankees will add them to the 40-man roster prior to the November deadline, no doubt. Not a second earlier, however. Torres and Acevedo are unavailable and Abreu is a Single-A kid. Calling them up would be pointless.

Other 40-man roster hopefuls like Jake Cave and Billy McKinney wouldn’t have a defined role in September. Romine was the third catcher. Pazos was the third lefty. Cave and McKinney would be … the seventh and eighth outfielders? Not exactly a big priority. I suppose the Yankees could add Cave to the 40-man roster — he’s going to be a minor league free agent this winter, so the Yankees will have to add him to the 40-man pretty much right after the World Series to avoid losing him — as a reward for his great season, but nah. Roster space is at a premium.

E-Rod. (Scranton Times Tribune)
E-Rod. (Scranton Times Tribune)

Now, that all said, there are two non-40-man players who I think could get a September call-up. One is Eddy Rodriguez, and he will only get called up if a) Higashioka doesn’t get healthy reasonably soon, and b) both Sanchez and Romine have their appeals heard and must serve their suspensions. So basically only if the Yankees run out of eligible catchers. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that. If it does, the Yankees will have no choice but to clear a 40-man roster spot to call up Rodriguez.

The other non-40-man call-up candidate? I don’t know. It’ll be the designated September pinch-runner, whoever that ends up being. Last year it was Eric Young Jr., the year before it was Rico Noel, and the year before that it was Antoan Richardson. Back in 2009 it was Freddy Guzman. Guzman was on the postseason roster all three rounds that year. True story. The Yankees have made it clear they value the designated September pinch-runner.

Jorge Mateo has been traded and I don’t think the Yankees would use Jacoby Ellsbury as their designated pinch-runner — besides, he’s starting to hit a little bit now, so I imagine he’ll find himself in the starting lineup a little more often going forward — so they don’t have an obvious in-house candidate for that role. If the Yankees are willing to open a 40-man roster spot, they’ll likely go out and get someone to come off the bench and run in September. Not a big trade — they got Young for cash last year — but a trade nonetheless.

* * *

As is often the case, this year’s batch of September call-ups is fairly straightforward. Holliday and Cooper will return from the disabled list Friday while Montgomery, Mitchell, Holder, and Gallegos figure to came up from Scranton, giving the Yankees six extra players on the first day rosters expand. Others like Andujar, Austin, German, Heller, and Wade are likely to come up shortly thereafter. Cessa, Frazier, and Higashioka will join the Yankees once they’re healthy, and if Higashioka doesn’t get healthy soon, Rodriguez figures to come up instead. Herrera and a pinch-runner are other possibilities.

I am pro-September call-ups — there are a lot of weirdos out there who don’t like expanded rosters — and it’s always fun to see the young guys come up, but here’s something to keep in mind: the Yankees are fighting for a postseason spot. They’re not going to play Andujar (or Cave) for the heck of it. Joe Girardi is going to stick with his regulars because the Yankees need to win, and the regulars give them the best chance to do that. The call-ups are around for blowouts and emergencies. That’s about it.

DotF: Cave homers as Scranton clinches division title

Got several days worth of notes to catch up on, so let’s get to it.

  • RHP Domingo Acevedo’s season is over, reports Matt Kardos. He’s been shut down due to his workload. Big Sunday had a 3.25 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 26.0% strikeouts and 6.2% walks in 133 innings at three levels this season. He threw 93 innings last year. Good season for Acevedo. A 40-man roster spot awaits this offseason.
  • Kyle Higashioka (shoulder) has a muscle strain, according to Conor Foley. He’s on the disabled list at the moment. There is no timetable for Higashioka’s return and that’s kind of a big deal with September call-ups looming and both Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine waiting on the appeals of their suspensions.
  • SS Thairo Estrada was named to the Double-A Eastern League end-of-season All-Star Team while 2B Nick Solak did the same in the High-A Florida State League. Also, High-A Tampa manager Jay Bell was named the FSL Manager of the year. Bell was recently named a top managerial prospect. Congrats to them.
  • According to Josh Norris, Estrada is expected to be among the players the Yankees send to the Arizona Fall League after the season. Thairo is on the 40-man roster bubble and the Yankees are probably using the AzFL stint to buy a little more evaluation time. That’s pretty common. The AzFL rosters should be announced fairly soon. Probably this week.
  • J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) looked at this year’s top breakout prospects, and OF Estevan Florial is among them. “Florial’s strikeout rate is still frighteningly high, but he runs, has developing power and has a chance to be an impact defender in center field in addition to a dynamic power-speed threat in the batter’s box,” said the write-up.

Triple-A Scranton (5-3 win over Rochester) they clinched a postseason spot over the weekend, and this win clinches their third straight division title

  • 2B Tyler Wade & 1B Tyler Austin: both 0-4, 1 K — Wade is 2-for-13 (.154) with five strikeouts in three games since being sent down
  • CF Jake Cave: 2-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI — that’s his 20th home run of the season … his previous career high was eight, set last year
  • 3B Miguel Andujar: 2-4, 1 SB — 18-for-47 (.383) during his 12-game hitting streak
  • RF Billy McKinney: 1-4
  • LF Mason Williams: 2-3, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • RHP Bryan Mitchell: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 9/2 GB/FB — 50 of 72 pitches were strikes (69%)
  • RHP J.P. Feyereisen: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 20 of 33 pitches were strikes (61%)
  • RHP Nick Rumbelow: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 4/0 GB/FB — 19 of 27 pitches were strikes (70%) … 44/11 K/BB in 39.1 innings since coming back from Tommy John surgery

[Read more…]

Severino outdueled by Kluber in 6-2 loss to Indians

The old saying is every team is going to win 50 games and lose 50 games each year, and it’s what they do in the other 62 games that defines the season. This felt like one of those 50 losses. A generally unremarkable game all around in which the Yankees never really felt in control. It happens. The Indians won the series opener 6-2 on Monday.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Good Sevy or Bad Sevy?
Was this a good start or a bad start for Luis Severino? I can’t quite tell. On one hand, four hits and nine strikeouts in 6.2 innings is pretty great. On the other, three solo homers and three walks isn’t. The three walks went to three consecutive batters in the fourth inning too. I can’t imagine Severino, who went into this start with a 6.5% walk rate, has had many three-walk innings this year.

Anyway, the home runs were the real problem, because duh. Severino was able to limit the damage with solo homers, so I guess that’s good, but giving up a homer to Jose Ramirez immediate after the Yankees took the lead against Corey Kluber really stunk. So did allowing the go-ahead shot to Carlos Santana in the seventh. All three homers were kinda deflating. Ramirez hit one in the first to give the Indians a quick lead with Kluber on the mound, then Ramirez tied the game right after the Yankees took the lead, and then Santana broke the tie in the seventh. Blah. The dinger pitch locations:

luis-severino-home-runs-indians2

Three pitches up in the zone. Ramirez (in the first) and Santana really reached out to hook an outside pitch into the right field seats, so credit to them for that, but yeah. Severino left three pitches up and paid the price. Prior to Monday’s start Severino had allowed four home runs total in his previous eight starts and 50 innings. Then the Indians got him for three homers in one game. Go figure.

Severino’s final line: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 9 K. Meh. The fourth run was stupid. Bradley Zimmer roped a one-out single in the seventh, advanced to third on a Starlin Castro error — he straight up missed the throw from Gary Sanchez on Zimmer’s steal attempt — then scored on an Adam Warren wild pitch. Threw a 55-foot fastball. The Yankees gifted the Indians three bases and a run there. Sloppy. Anyway, if this is a bad start for Severino now, he’ll be just fine.

Two Run Against Kluber
Hey, that’s two more runs than I expected the Yankees to score going into the game. Kluber is outrageously good. Easily the best right-handed pitcher in the American League in my opinion, and arguably the best pitcher in the league regardless of handedness. Chris Sale is almost certainly going to win the Cy Young, but man, Kluber is awesome too. He went into this game with a 2.65 ERA (2.56 FIP) in 152.2 innings. Dude is a monster.

And yet, the Yankees still managed to scratch out two runs against Kluber in his eight innings. Chase Headley got the Yankees on the board and tied the game 1-1 with a third inning solo homer. Hanging breaking ball and Headley crushed it. A rare mistake from Kluber, that was. The Yankees took a 2-1 lead on Todd Frazier‘s two-out, two-strike ground ball single in the fifth. Jacoby Ellsbury doubled as the previous batter to set that run up.

Kluber started the sixth inning by walking Aaron Hicks — that was Kluber’s only walk of the night — and that was it. The Yankees never had another baserunner. Twelve up, twelve down to end the game. Only three of those final 12 batters hit the ball out of the infield. Three hits and one walk for the Yankees all night. Headley’s homer, Ellsbury’s double, Frazier’s single, Hicks’ walk. That’s all the offense. Kluber will do that to a team.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

About The Bullpen
A few things about the bullpen. One, David Robertson was warming in the seventh inning, when the score was tied 2-2. Then Severino gave up the homer to Santana and the Indians took a 3-2 lead, and Robertson sat down. Warren came in. What’s the thinking behind not going with Robertson, who was already warm and will probably have to pitch tomorrow just to get work, to keep it a one-run deficit, and instead going with the struggling Warren? Down one run is more dire than a tie game!

Two, why not use Aroldis Chapman at some point? Joe Girardi keeps saying they have to get Chapman right and they do, so why not use him, say, with the Yankees down 4-2 in the ninth? Seemed like a pretty good opportunity to get him some action. Between this game and Sunday’s blowout win, I think the Yankees blew some recent opportunities to get Chapman some work in lower leverage spots to help him right the ship. Those are the situations he should be pitching now. Now extra innings of a tie game like Friday night.

And three, the bullpen has now allowed a run in nine of the last ten games. For real. The one exception is Caleb Smith‘s two scoreless innings Sunday. Warren has struggled of late, so has Tommy Kahnle and even Chad Green, plus Robertson had that ugly meltdown against the Tigers in the brawl game. I’m pretty confident Warren and Green will figure things out, less so Kahnle because his history of walking guys is too scary to ignore, but the damage has already been down. The bullpen has allowed a run in nine of the last ten games. Gross.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Leftovers
Warren allowed the runner he inherited from Severino to score, then allowed a run of his own on Austin Jackson’s solo home run in the eighth. Chasen Shreve allowed a ninth inning run on a walk (Santana) and a double (Zimmer). It’s one thing to fall behind 3-2 following the Santana homer. It’s another when the bullpen lets that 3-2 deficit swell into a 6-2 deficit. You’re better than that, dudes.

The three Yankees hits came from the 7-8-9 hitters, which means the 1-2-3-4-5-6 hitters went a combined 0-for-22 with the Hicks walk and seven strikeouts. Sanchez did reach base when Giovanny Urshela got a little too cute and threw away a barehanded play at third, though the Yankees couldn’t get him home. I have a hard time getting worked up about the offense stagnating against Kluber (and Cody Allen).

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Head over to ESPN for the box score and updated standings, and MLB.com for the video highlights. We have a Bullpen Workload page. Here’s the loss probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
Same two teams Tuesday night, in the middle game of this three-game series. Jaime Garcia and Trevor Bauer are the scheduled starting pitchers. Not-so-bold prediction: runs will be scored.

Game 130: Aces Up

(Getty Images)
(Getty Images)

The Yankees come into tonight riding high after a pair of series wins, inching within 2.5 games of the Red Sox for the division lead. Before a four-game set with Boston, they’ll have to take on AL Central leaders for three games.

You couldn’t have asked for a better pitching matchup in the series opener. AL Cy Young favorite Corey Kluber toes the rubber for Cleveland while the Yankees send out their young ace, Luis Severino. While Severino has a 3.10 ERA with 10.5 K per nine, Kluber has been on another level with an AL-best 2.65 ERA to go with 12.3 K per nine.

Each starter picked up a win during the previous Yankees-Indians series, which was split 2-2 at Progressive Field. Quite the test for Severino, who has already faced off with the likes of Chris Sale, Jon Lester and Carlos Carrasco this season.

Here is Cleveland’s lineup and here is the Yankees’ lineup:

    1. LF Brett Gardner
    2. CF Aaron Hicks
    3. Gary Sanchez
    4. SS Didi Gregorius
    5. 2B Starlin Castro
    6. 1B Greg Bird
    7. DH Chase Headley
    8. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
    9. 3B Todd Frazier
      RHP Luis Severino

A rare day off for Aaron Judge, who hasn’t had a game off since Aug. 3, the last time the Yankees faced Kluber.

The forecast is partly cloudy for the Bronx, but no sign of precipitation to ruin this pitchers’ duel. First pitch is set for 7:05 on YES locally and ESPN for those out of market. Enjoy a fine night for baseball!

8/28 to 8/30 Series Preview: Cleveland Indians

(Jason Miller/Getty Images)
(Jason Miller/Getty Images)

A debt of gratitude is owed to the Orioles and Indians, who combined to win 5 of 7 against the Red Sox last week. As a result of this (and taking two of three from both the Tigers and the Mariners), the Yankees are now within 2.5 games of first place, with four games against the Sox this coming weekend. That doesn’t mean that the Yankees should be looking beyond this series, though, as the Indians are arguably among the five best teams in baseball.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees and Indians split a four-game series in Cleveland earlier this month. You may remember this as the series in which Joe Girardi called out Gary Sanchez for his defensive effort, and benched him for a game. That seems so long ago, doesn’t it? Some other notes from the series:

  • Sonny Gray made his Yankees debut in the first game, and was treated to some horrendous defense. He pitched to the following line: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R (2 ER), 3 BB, 6 K.
  • Jaime Garcia made his debut the next day, and also dealt with some lackluster defense in the form of a Sanchez passed ball. Unlike Gray, though, he was kind of bad, going 4.2 IP and allowing 5 hits, 6 runs, and 4 walks, while striking out 4.
  • Game three was much more fun for Yankees fans, as Jordan Montgomery had a great start (5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K), and Headley hit a clutch go-ahead home run in the bottom of the 8th, as the good guys won 2-1.
  • And, to make this a pitcher-friendly section, Luis Severino was dominant (if inefficient) in the last game. He went 6.2 IP and allowed just 2 hits, 1 run, and 1 walk, while striking out 9. It took him 107 pitches to do so, as his control was a bit off. His stuff was so good that it didn’t matter.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more in-depth information.

Injury Report

Cleveland is pretty banged-up right now, with a slew of talent on the disabled list. Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, former Yankee Boone Logan, former Yankee Andrew Miller, and Danny Salazar are all out with injuries, and their returns are up in the air. There’s an outside chance that Brantley and Chisenhall could be back for this series, but no announcement has been made as of this morning. The rest will not be back until September (aside from Logan, who’s likely done for the year).

Their Story So Far

The Indians are currently 73-56, with a 6.5 game lead in the AL Central and a +145 run differential (good for third in the majors). They’ve won four in a row, even as they deal with the aforementioned injuries, and rank among the most formidable teams in the game. They’re second in the majors in runs allowed and eighth in runs scored, and they stand to get better in the coming weeks.

Post-non-waiver deadline acquisition Jay Bruce has been incredible for the Indians, batting .311/.391/.590 (159 wRC+) with 4 HR and 13 RBI in 17 games. His presence has allowed the team to replace Brantley without missing a beat, even improving the heart of their order along the way.

The Lineup We Might See

Despite his willingness to buck common practice with his bullpen, manager Terry Francona has had a mostly steady hand with the lineup. The only reason for whatever shake-ups have occurred are rooted in injuries – and that works just fine for them. Here’s the group that we’ll probably see in Yankee Stadium this week:

  1. Francisco Lindor, SS
  2. Austin Jackson, LF
  3. Jose Ramirez, 2B
  4. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B
  5. Jay Bruce, RF
  6. Carlos Santana, 1B
  7. Yandy Diaz, 3B
  8. Bradley Zimmer, CF
  9. Yan Gomes, C

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Corey Kluber

If you prefer traditional statistics, Kluber may well be the best pitcher in the American League. He leads the Junior Circuit in ERA, WHIP, and H/9; and, if you want to go by a bit more advanced measures, he also leads in ERA+ and bWAR. Kluber is averaging 12.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9, as well, both of which are second to Chris Sale. In short, he’s an ace – and the Yankees saw that first-hand on August 3 (9 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K).

Last Outing (vs. BOS on 8/23) – 7.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 12 K

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): LHP Jaime Garcia vs. RHP Trevor Bauer

Bauer has had a middling 2017, which is par the course for his career. His 4.59 ERA is good for a 101 ERA+, and his 3.88 FIP is just about league-average. He’s a perfectly fine back-end starter, whose high-level stuff and draft pedigree (he went 3rd overall in a loaded 2011 draft class) make fans desperate for more.

Last Outing (vs. BOS on 8/24) – 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 8 K

Wednesday (1:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Josh Tomlin

I have long referred to Tomlin as a crafty lefty that just so happens to throw with his right hand, and I will stick to that for as long as he’s in the majors. That’s just the sort of pitcher that he is, and I am constantly baffled when I see him pitch. He has been on the disabled list since the end of July, so Wednesday will be his first appearance in just over four weeks.

Tomlin is a four-pitch guy, with a couple of fastballs in the upper-80s (four-seamer and cutter), a low-80s change-up, and a mid-70s curveball.

Last Outing (vs. CHW on 7/30) – 4.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K

The Bullpen

Injuries to key relievers has not slowed down this group, as the Indians bullpen sports a 2.99 ERA in 390.2 IP, along with 2.93 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9. It’s a strong bullpen from top to bottom, and, amazingly, that’s true with Andrew Miller and his 1.65 ERA, 13.0 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 on the disabled list.

Cody Allen handles the closer role, and he’s sitting on a 2.94 ERA and 12.1 K/9. Former Yankees Nick Goody (2.98 ERA and 12.5 K/9) and Zach McAllister (2.52 ERA and 9.6 K/9) join Bryan Shaw (3.25 ERA) in the middle innings, and deadline pick-up Joe Smith (3.25 ERA and 12.2 K/9) has slid into a set-up role.

Who (Or What) To Watch

I’m ridiculously excited to see Luis Severino versus Corey Kluber tonight, even though I fear what Kluber can do to this (or any) lineup on a given night. These are two of the best pitchers in baseball right now (top-four in the majors by fWAR, top-four in the AL by bWAR), so you couldn’t ask for much more.

And, as always, Francisco Lindor is a joy to watch.

Yankeemetrics: Ending with a win, finally (Aug. 25-27)

(AP)
(AP)

Extra awful loss
The uniforms might have looked different, but the result was a familiar one for Yankee fans in the Bronx on Friday night – a frustrating and gut-wrenching 11-inning, 2-1 loss. While another late meltdown by the bullpen was the trigger point, the lack of clutch hitting and numerous wasted scoring opportunities gave the Yankees virtually no chance to win the game.

Let’s recap the ugliness:

  • It was their 22nd one-run loss of the season, the most in the American League through Friday, and 10(!) more than they had all of last season.
  • It was also their sixth extra-inning loss, twice as many as they suffered in 2016.
  • And it was the 22nd time the bullpen was charged with a loss, the third-highest total in the AL through Friday, behind the Rays and Rangers.

Aroldis Chapman‘s miserable season continued as he coughed up the game-winning homer to Yonder Alonso in the top of the 11th inning. Chapman wore the goat horns, and also gets stung with our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series:

He is the second Yankee ever to give up an extra-inning go-ahead homer at Yankee Stadium against the Mariners. The other one happened on June 14, 1978 when Leon Roberts took Sparky Lyle deep in the top of the 10th, a shot that was rendered meaningless when the Yankees rallied in the bottom of the frame to win the game.

Alonso is also the second left-handed batter this month to homer off the Cuban Missile. That is a mind-blogging fact considering Chapman had surrendered only one home run to a lefty in his career before Rafael Devers took him deep two weeks ago (Luke Scott was the other on June 26, 2011).

To sum it up: he allowed one homer to the first 418 lefty batters he faced in the majors, and since has allowed two homers to the last 12 lefty batters he’s faced in the majors.

With Alonso hammering a 100.1 mph pitch from Chapman into Monument Park, it’s becoming more and more likely that his blazing fastball is no longer a weapon of intimidation in the pitcher-hitter duel. Batters are squaring up on his triple-digit heater more often than ever. Look at these numbers for the 100-plus mph pitches he has thrown in this career.

Year Pitches Slug pct Home runs Whiff rate
2017 253 .324 2 15%
2010-16 2,330 .150 3 22%

The Yankees wasted a gem from CC Sabathia, who was brilliant in his second start since coming off the DL, going seven innings and allowing just one run. Sabathia’s late-career resurgence is reminiscent of another Yankee legend who had a couple strong seasons after reaching the midpoint of his 30s, Mike Mussina. And so it was fitting that the two pitchers had a cool statistical convergence on Friday night:

When Sabathia took the mound at the start of the game, it was his 249th start as a Yankee, breaking a tie with Mussina for sole possession of 11th place on the franchise’s all-time games started list. And when Sabathia struck out Kyle Seager in the sixth inning, it was his 2,814th strikeout, passing Mussina for 19th place on the Major-League all-time strikeout list.

(AP)
(AP)

Sonny skies all day
The crushing losses have been piling up, but the resiliency of this team hasn’t waned. That toughness was on display again this weekend when the Yankees bounced back from Friday’s devastating loss to beat the Mariners 6-3 on Saturday. They’ve now won seven of their last 10 games following a one-run loss, dating back to the last week of June.

Sonny Gray delivered his finest performance as Yankee, striking out nine and allowing just one run in seven stellar innings. He’s pitched at least five innings and allowed no more than two earned runs in each of his first five starts with the Bombers, becoming the first pitcher to begin his Yankee tenure with a streak like that since Tommy John in 1979.

This excellent stretch extends even further back to his final month in Oakland too; Saturday was his 11th consecutive start giving up fewer than three earned runs, the longest streak by any pitcher in the majors this season. In that span – since June 25 – he’s compiled an ERA of 1.95, the lowest by any American League pitcher (min. 30 IP) over the last two months.

Gray dominated with his two breaking pitches, as the Mariners swung at 18 curves/sliders and whiffed on 11 of them, including five for strike three. But perhaps more impressive was how he repeatedly froze batters with his two-seamer. He got a career-best 15 called strikes among the 54 two-seam fastballs he threw, and most of those takes were in the heart of the zone (orange dots below):

sonny-gray2

While Gray shined on the mound, Jacoby Ellsbury had a rare starring role as the offensive spark plug, with an RBI single and a tie-breaking three-run dinger. Ellsbury’s blast was a Yankee Stadium special, just barely clearing the short porch in right field. According to ESPN’s Hit Tracker (and based on calculations if the ball had been hit in ideal weather conditions of 70 degrees and no wind), Yankee Stadium is the only ballpark it would have been a home run.

(New York Post)
(New York Post)

Sloppy Seattle, Magnificent Masa
The Yankees’ inability to close out series had become a recurring nightmare … until the Bad News Mariners showed up to Yankee Stadium. Entering this weekend, the Yankees had dropped their previous 11 rubber games — a streak that reached back to early June — and were 5-14 in rubber games overall this season, easily the worst record and most losses of any team. On Sunday afternoon the Yankees took advantage of a historically sloppy Seattle defense to snap that inexplicable streak, en route to a 10-1 victory.

They raced out to an early 6-1 lead thanks to five Mariners errors in the first inning, the most errors committed by one team in a single inning since the Cubs on July 2, 1977 against the Cardinals. If you’re curious, the modern record (since 1900) for the most errors committed in one inning is seven, by the Cleveland Naps against the Chicago White Sox on September 20, 1905.

Thanks to all those free outs, a cavalcade of hits, and some timely at-bats (6 hits with runners in scoring position), the Yankees were able to win without the benefit a homer — an extremely rare win for this power-happy team. It was just their fourth win this season in a game they didn’t go deep, which is now tied with the Tigers for the fewest such wins in the majors.

Masahiro Tanaka made sure the Yankees offensive outburst wouldn’t be wasted as he shut down the Mariners lineup after a shaky first inning. He struck out 10 in seven innings, allowed one run, and has now quietly posted a 2.92 ERA over his last 11 outings. This was also his 100th career start, and with those 10 strikeouts, Tanaka became the first pitcher in franchise history to reach 600 strikeouts in his first 100 major-league games.

Fan Confidence Poll: August 28th, 2017

Record Last Week: 4-2 (46 RS, 22 RA)
Season Record: 70-59 (676 RS, 541 RA, 77-52 pythag. record) 2.5 GB in ALE, 3.5 GU on WC
Opponents This Week: vs. Indians (three games, Mon. to Weds.), vs. Red Sox (four games, Thurs. to Sun.)

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