Year Six of Masahiro Tanaka [2019 Season Preview]
It’s rare to remember where you were when a team acquired a player. For me, one of those cases — one of two, the other being Mark Teixeira — is Masahiro Tanaka. On that January morning, I was on a back road in Stamford, Connecticut, on my way to work at Weston High School. It was sunny and there was snow on the ground, so there must’ve been a delayed opening. The signing was announced on WFAN and I think I broke traffic laws and checked something on Twitter from Ken Rosenthal; that part I’m not sure of, but the rest I am.
Five years and seasons later and I’m still just as excited each time Tanaka takes the mound as I was back then. He’s a pitcher for whom back-to-back games rarely look the same and is capable of using both his slider and splitter as out pitches, depending on whom he’s facing. Pressure has always been high on him to perform — the posting fee, the salary, the hype — and he’s mostly done that, pitching to a 118 career ERA+. He has always been expected to perform like an ace, but with the emergence of Luis Severino and the acquisition of James Paxton, Tanaka will be in the limelight a little less this season. Before we get into performance and results, let’s look at some process stuff real quick.
Here are a few things that stood out to me while looking at the difference in Tanaka’s pitch usage between 2017 and 2018.
- Increased 4-seam usage about 10%
- Decreased sinker usage about 12%
- Increased slider usage about 2%
- Increased splitter usage about 6%
Despite the team-wide edict of minimizing fastballs, Tanaka used his more often, eschewing his sinker/2-seamer for it. We’ll have to watch to see if he continues that in 2019, ditto for the uppings in splitter and slider, his two out-pitches. Tanaka is at his best when his splitter and sinker are doing their respective dives; hopefully, he can continue to get batters to chase and whiff on those.
As for future results, the most obvious way to look at how we think Tanaka might do in 2019 is to look at his different projections, listed below with a few selected stats:
Projection | IP | H | BB | K | HR | ERA | FIP | WAR(P) |
Steamer | 153 | 148 | 36 | 148 | 23 | 3.93 | 3.89 | 2.6 |
ZiPS | 157 | 148 | 31 | 149 | 23 | 3.78 | 3.83 | 3.1 |
PECOTA | 168 | 156 | 44 | 155 | 3.86 | 4.03 (DRA) | 2.8 | |
B-R | 156 | 146 | 39 | 156 | 24 | 3.98 | 3.92 | N/A |
Average | 159 | 150 | 38 | 152 | 24 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 2.9 (fWAR only) |
The general trends are pretty familiar for Tanaka. He doesn’t project to have a high innings total because he does tend to spend at least one bit of time per season on the injured list. Additionally, we see his trademark control and near-one-an-inning strikeout numbers. All in all, nothing is too surprising here for a guy entering his sixth season as a Major League pitcher.
While each system projects Tanaka around the same (take the non ZiPS calculations for FIP with a grain of salt since I did them by hand, assuming the FIP constant of 3.161 from the FG Guts section), ZiPS likes him best in terms of ERA, FIP, and WAR. Interestingly enough, two of the four see him with a lower FIP than ERA, which would be odd, given his proclivity for giving up homers. Again, take those with a grain of salt; there’s a reason I’m an English teacher and not a math teacher.
All together, this paints the picture of an above average pitcher, which is perfect for where Tanaka will slot in the rotation at the number three spot. Tanaka, of course, has the stuff to be more than a number three pitcher. His talent and arsenal give him a leg up and on any given day, he can have no-hit stuff. There aren’t a ton of number three starters who can match Tanaka’s stuff or pure talent and that will serve the Yankees well come playoff time. A top-three of Severino, Paxton, and Tanaka will be hard to beat in a short or long series.
Another way we can get a glimpse as to how he might do is to take a look at similar pitchers to Tanaka as they headed into their age 30 seasons. First, let’s take a look at the late Cory Lidle, Tanaka’s ZiPS comparable player. Lidle’s age 30 season was 2002, when he was with Oakland. In that year, he threw 192 innings with a low strikeout rate (bad), a low walk rate (good), and ERA/FIP marks that look a lot like Tanaka’s projections: 3.89 and 3.66, good for a 3.7 fWAR and 3.5 bWAR. He may’ve done it in a slightly different way than we’d expect Tanaka to do it, but I’d take those WAR marks from him without hesitation.
Through age 29, Tanaka’s five most comparable pitchers are Lance Lynn, Jake Arrieta, Jaime Garcia, Adam Wainwright, and Dallas Keuchel. Let’s take a look at how they did from age 29-30, looking at increases and decreases in some key stats.
Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | ERA | FIP | fWAR | bWAR |
Lynn* | +11 | -2.5 | +1.0 | -3.5 | +0.43 | +1.38 | -1.7 | -0.1 |
Arrieta^ | -32 | -3.2 | +4.1 | -7.3 | +1.33 | +1.17 | -3.5 | -4.6 |
Garcia** | -15 | -1 | +1.8 | -2.9 | -0.26 | -0.15 | +0.9 | +0.6 |
Wainwright^^ | -32 | -1.3 | +0.1 | -1.4 | -0.21 | +0.24 | -1.5 | -5.3 |
Keuchel | +59 | -3.9 | -1.5 | -2.5 | +0.84 | -0.10 | +1.2 | -1.3 |
Average | -1.8 | -2.38 | +1.66 | -3.52 | +0.43 | +0.51 | -0.92 | -2.14 |
* Lynn missed his age 29 season with injury, so we’re going from 28 to 30.
^ Arrieta’s age 30 season was the season after his dominant, Cy Young winning age 29 season. He had big dropoffs because of how good age 29 was, not how bad age 30 was.
** Garcia played for three teams in his age 30 season, including the Yankees, in 2017.
^^ Wainwright also missed his age 29 season, so we’re going from 28 to 30. He also had 9 (!) unearned runs against him that year.
Generally, these pitchers performed worse in their age 30 seasons than they did in their previous seasons. The average for bWAR change gets way thrown off by Wainwright’s weird bWAR year in 2012; using the median, the drop is only -0.1, which seems a bit more reasonable. It could be pinstripe blinders, or my tendency to Stan for Tanaka, but I think he can outperform more or less all of these “indicators,” given his aforementioned talent-level and raw stuff.
Masahiro Tanaka is a pitcher I find incredibly fun to watch. He approaches each game differently and can beat opponents in multiple ways. Each time he pitches, there’s a chance something special happens. Sure, there’s also a chance he gives up a bunch of homers, but at least they’re usually solo homers, right? Regardless, I always expect the best from him and will expect the same from him in 2019.
Mailbag: Arenado, Widener, Keuchel, Machado, Teixeira, Trout
There are ten questions in the mailbag this week. The Grapefruit League season begins tomorrow and that means we can start mailbaggin’ about actual baseball again. Hooray for that. Anyway, send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.
Ross asks: In your opinion, what are the chances that the DJ LeMahieu signing is ‘live research’ for how Nolan Arenado’s offensive production might translate to Yankee Stadium/the AL East? In other words: Do you think any part of that signing was ‘Hey, let’s get a decent player and we’ll also find out if a true CO bat plays in our league as we look toward spending big on 3b if Andujar cannot hack it after one more, full season?’
Hah, interesting! That would be something. I don’t think this was a factor in the LeMahieu signing at all though. He and Arenado are very different hitters. LeMahieu is an opposite field singles hitter who hits a lot of ground balls. Arenado is one of the most extreme fly ball hitters in baseball (career 37.0% grounders) who mostly pulls the ball, though can poke it over the fence the other way. This would be like signing Derek Jeter to gain insight into how Gary Sanchez plays outside Yankee Stadium. If anything, Troy Tulowitzki is a better “live research” subject for Arenado because he is — or was at his peak with the Rockies — a fly ball guy with pull tendencies. I have no idea what sort of player Tulowitzki will be at this point of his career, but, if he’s still getting the ball in the air to left field, it’ll potentially tell us more regarding Arenado than LeMahieu serving singles to right. The Yankees signed LeMahieu because they love his glove and think there’s some upside in the bat. That’s all.
Geoff asks: I find it surprising that you rarely see a lefty starter prospect on the NYY top prospect list, and equally surprising that it is rarely if ever never discussed considering where the team plays it’s home games. It’s been this way for years; Sheffield and Clarkin were rarities.
It is unusual. I don’t think the Yankees (or any team, for that matter) focuses on handedness with prospects. They grab the best talent, try to develop it, and go from there. You’re doing yourself a disservice if you pick and choose prospects to draft or sign based on the hand they throw with or the side of the plate they hit from. Just get the best possible players. That said, you’d think the Yankees would run into more good lefties than they have over the last 15-20 years through sheer random chance. It’s been Manny Banuelos, Justus Sheffield, and Ian Clarkin. That’s it. I suppose we could throw Jordan Montgomery into the mix but he was never a top 100 prospect type. This isn’t anything to worry about. Not with the Yankees turning into a player development machine. It’s just an oddity.
John asks: I was surprised to see Taylor Widener appear as #83 on MLB 2019 Prospect list, and you have him so low (#28) on the “what if we didn’t trade them” prospect list. Has something changed since he went to Arizona he is now viewed so highly?
Yeah, I don’t get it either. MLB.com is the only site with Widener in their top 100 list. Seems to me they are heavily weighing his performance, which was great last year. Threw 137.1 innings, all in Double-A, with a 2.75 ERA (2.99 FIP) and very good strikeout (31.9%) and walk (7.9%) rates. Lefties hit him more than you’d like (.232/.301/.405) and MLB.com’s report even notes some “forecast an eventual move to the bullpen.” Fastball/slider righties who lack a weapon to neutralize lefties and might be facing a future in the bullpen are everywhere. Is there a meaningful difference between Widener and Trevor Stephan, for example? Widener is a good prospect but MLB.com’s ranking is an outlier. They have to be putting a lot of stock into the performance, and hey, that’s fine. There’s no right way to rank prospects.
Alberto asks: Lets say for some reason the Yankees are no longer an MLB team, meaning no baseball from the Bronx. Would you stop following baseball or who would follow or think could follow?
Definitely wouldn’t stop following baseball. There’s no chance that happens. I don’t think I would latch onto another team. My routine right now is, when I’m not watching the Yankees, I watch whatever game or team around the league interests me at that point in time. Last year I watched a ton of Angels games because of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. I also found myself watching the A’s a bunch because they were a fun group. It worked out nicely because the A’s and Angels are on the West Coast, so I could flip over once the Yankees finished their game and still catch all nine innings. With no Yankees, I’d just be a fan of baseball rather than latch on and become a fan of another team.
Joe asks: Does Dallas Keuchel on a one year deal make sense? Tanaka and CC probably both prefer extra rest.
Absolutely. Keuchel on a long-term contract scares me but I’d take him on a one-year contract no questions asked, and figure out how the rotation works later. You know someone will get hurt and the “six starters for five rotation spots” thing will take care of itself. Give Keuchel one year and $35M for all I care. I don’t think the Yankees are open to another high-priced addition at this point, short or long-term, and I don’t think Keuchel will have to settle for a one-year contract either. I could see him getting something similar to Jake Arrieta’s contract. Two guaranteed years with a player option and one of those funky multi-year club options. Keuchel’s definitely not going to get Patrick Corbin or Yu Darvish money. Never was. I expect him to still get multiple years though.
Matthew asks: Do you foresee teams faking injuries to get around the 3 batter rule? Who’s to say the guy’s arm didn’t get sore? Football teams fake injuries to slow down no huddle offenses (for example) and there’s not much anyone can do about it other than a public shaming by the opposing coach in the press conference.
I guess MLB would go with the honor system? I don’t know what the plan is here. Requiring a pitcher who leaves with an injury before facing three batters to automatically be placed on the injured list is unreasonable. All throughout the season we see pitchers removed from games as a precaution, then a day or two later they’re fine. You can’t ask a pitcher who maybe has an ache or some tightness to gut it out for another batter or two to avoid the required injured list stint. I suppose MLB could put someone at each ballpark who confirms the injury, but even that doesn’t seem fullproof. I’m not sure what the solution is here. I guess MLB could just run with it, and if they think injury removals are being abused, they could circle back and find a solution. Make sure it’s actually a problem before coming up with a solution, basically.
Rubaiyat asks: Do you have to play ten full seasons to earn a pension, or could you play nine full and a few months in the tenth season to get it? Also, with most players not being able to play 10 years to earn a full pension, do you see the CBA pushing for a lower amount of years needed to earn one?
Ten full years of service time locks in the full pension. It doesn’t have to be ten consecutive years, just ten years. You can be a journeyman who splits parts of 16 seasons between Triple-A and MLB, and as long as you get to ten full years of service time, you lock in the full pension. The full pension is north of $200,000 annually these days. Players can begin receiving that at age 62. (They could also tap into a smaller pension at a younger age.) The important number for most players: 43. Forty-three days of service time locks in a $34,000 per year pension. The more service time you accrue, the larger the pension until you max out at ten years. For up-and-down guys who have no real shot at ten years in the big leagues, those cups of coffee and September call-ups are important. Every little bit of service time increases the player’s pension. The current service time requirements have been in place for decades and they’re set by the MLBPA. The tricky part is funding the pension plan if the service time requirements are lowered. The pension plan is funded by the players, the teams, and MLB itself. They’d have to get everyone on board and convince them to pay more into the fund to make this work, and good luck with that.
Chris asks: Doesn’t the Machado deal wreak of Robbie Cano’s similar mistake of taking the money instead of the wins?
First of all, this isn’t a good comparison because Robinson Cano already had a World Series ring when he became a free agent. Win a ring, then get paid. What’s so wrong with that? Secondly, why is it a mistake to chase money instead of wins? Had Machado signed with a no doubt World Series contender (like the Yankees!) the critics would just say he’s taking the easy way out. He doesn’t want to be The Man so he’s going to a team with other great players, blah blah blah yadda yadda yadda. And third, given their incredible farm system and apparent willingness to spend, couldn’t you argue only a handful of teams are better set up for success the next six or seven years than the Padres? The Chargers are gone. San Diego has one-team city now and the Padres are going after it hard. Good for them. I will never ever ever blame a player for chasing the money. You’re never going to make everyone happy so don’t even bother trying. Just do what’s best for you.
Steve asks: In retrospect, do you think the Yankees receive good value on the Mark Teixeira free-agent deal?
I do. Teixeira hit .248/.343/.479 (120 wRC+) with 206 home runs and +17.8 WAR during his eight-year contract. He had one MVP caliber season (2009) and helped the Yankees to a championship as well. Straight $/WAR says Teixeira provided $110.8M in value on a $180M contract, so in that sense it was a bad deal, but $/WAR is overly simplistic. The cost of a win is not linear and it is not the same for every team. Using the same $/WAR calculation for the Yankees as the Rays or White Sox makes no sense.
The Yankees were a contending team every year from 2009-16. They didn’t always make the postseason but they tried. The goal going into each season was to make the postseason and win the World Series. Every additional win they added to the roster increased their chances of achieving that goal. This wasn’t a 75-win team getting to 78 wins. It was an 88-win team getting to 91 wins, or a 92-win team getting to 95 wins. Those extra wins are huge at that point on the win curve, and since the Yankees’ brand is built on winning, they should be (and historically have been) willing to pay extra for those wins. They did with Teixeira.
Casey asks: What are the chances the Yankees didn’t go after Harper to get Trout when he is a free agent? Still could extend Hicks after this season and when Trout is available sign him to play Center and slide Hicks to a corner outfield and still have Judge and Stanton to rotate between the 3 outfield and DH spots.
Small. It’s not smart to plan around players who won’t become free agents for another few years. Lots can change between now and then. Trout’s performance could collapse or (more likely) the Angels could give him a massive lifetime contract. I am much less confident in Trout reaching free agency than I was Manny Machado and Bryce Harper two years ago. Those two always seemed like good bets to test the open market. I’m not sure about Trout. Also, waiting for Trout doesn’t help now. The Yankees should be focused on improving the 2019 Yankees, not waiting around to improve the 2021 Yankees. There are two possible championships to be won between now and then! If Trout becomes a free agent in two years and he is still Mike effin’ Trout, I will be very loud and make it very clear I want the Yankees to sign him. That said, under no circumstances should the Yankees pass on opportunities to improve now with an eye on Trout later. There are too many variables at play. Besides, how are the Yankees going to pay Trout when they have to pay their core?
Feb. 21st Spring Training Notes: Starters, Gardner, Ottavino
Here are today’s Spring Training notes:
- We have our first starting pitchers of the year: Nestor Cortes will start Saturday’s spring opener and Jonathan Loaisiga will start Sunday. Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Aaron Hicks, and Gleyber Torres are making the road trip for Saturday’s game. [Brendan Kuty]
- Brett Gardner wants to play beyond 2019 and he said he never considered signing with another team this offseason. “I’ve played with quite a few people who have come from other places and can’t believe the way we do things around here. I play with people here who go other places and call me and say, ‘You don’t want to come over here,'” he said. [Jack Curry, Brendan Kuty]
- Adam Ottavino threw a simulated game today and struck out all four batters he faced. “I try not to blow first (sim games) out of the water, but you can see why he’s good. You can see why his slider’s pretty devastating. His fastball command also. Some good life at the top of the zone. I was impressed with it,” said Austin Romine, who caught Ottavino. [Bryan Hoch, Erik Boland]
- James Paxton (27 pitches) and Masahiro Tanaka (32 pitches) also threw simulated games. Chad Green and Domingo German threw to hitters in live batting practice while Zack Britton and Trevor Stephan were among those to throw bullpen sessions. [Brendan Kuty]
Only one more workout day before the Yankees start playing spring games. Thank goodness for that. The team’s first four Grapefruit League Games will be televised.
2019 Yankees Spring Training TV Broadcast Schedule
February 21st: The MLB.tv schedule has finally been released. I’ve updated the table below. Twenty-four of the Yankees’ 32 exhibition games will be televised live.
February 18th: This coming Saturday the Yankees will begin their 31-game Grapefruit League season. The spring home opener is next Monday, and the Yankees will close out their spring schedule with an exhibition game at Nationals Park five weeks from today. Opening Day is Thursday, March 28th, at home against the Orioles. So close, yet so far.
In recent weeks the YES Network, ESPN, and MLB Network released their Spring Training broadcast schedules, and, at the moment, 15 of the Yankees’ 32 spring games will be televised live. That number will increase once the MLB.tv spring broadcast schedule is announced. Every network has scaled back on their spring coverage in recent years, but still, most Yankees games will be broadcast this spring.
My gift to you is the table below, which has the team’s Spring Training television broadcast information in one convenient place. You’ll be able to find this post linked in the Opening Day Countdown widget in the sidebar at all times. All start times are Eastern Time.
Date | Start Time | Opponent | TV info |
---|---|---|---|
Saturday, Feb. 23rd | 1:05pm | @ Red Sox | MLB.tv, MLBN live |
Sunday, Feb. 24th | 1:05pm | @ Rays | MLB.tv, MLBN live |
Monday, Feb. 25th | 1:05pm | vs. Blue Jays | YES, MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Tuesday, Feb. 26th | 1:05pm | vs. Phillies | YES, MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Wednesday, Feb. 27th | 1:05pm | @ Tigers | |
Thursday, Feb. 28th | 1:05pm | vs. Pirates | |
Friday, March 1st | 6:35pm | vs. Orioles | |
Saturday, March 2nd | 1:05pm | @ Pirates | |
Sunday, March 3rd (ss) | 1:05pm | vs. Tigers | YES, MLB.tv |
Sunday, March 3rd (ss) | 1:07pm | @ Blue Jays | MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Monday, March 4th | OFF | ||
Tuesday, March 5th | 1:05pm | vs. Braves | YES, MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Wednesday, March 6th | 1:05pm | vs. Cardinals | YES, MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Thursday, March 7th | 1:05pm | @ Phillies | MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Friday, March 8th | 6:35pm | vs. Tigers | YES, MLB.tv, MLB tape delay |
Saturday, March 9th | 6:05pm | @ Orioles | MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Sunday, March 10th (ss) | 1:05pm | vs. Pirates | |
Sunday, March 10th (ss) | 1:05pm | @ Tigers | |
Monday, March 11th | OFF | ||
Tuesday, March 12th | 6:35pm | vs. Orioles | YES, MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Wednesday, March 13th | 6:35pm | vs. Phillies | |
Thursday, March 14th | 1:07pm | @ Blue Jays | |
Friday, March 15th | 1:05pm | vs. Red Sox | YES, MLB.tv, MLBN live |
Saturday, March 16th | 1:05pm | vs. Blue Jays | YES, MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Sunday, March 17th (ss) | 1:05pm | @ Orioles | MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Sunday, March 17th (ss) | 1:05pm | @ Phillies | MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Monday, March 18th | 6:05pm | @ Braves | |
Tuesday, March 19th | 1:05pm | vs. Rays | YES, MLB.tv |
Wednesday, March 20th | 1:05pm | @ Astros | MLB.tv, MLBN live |
Thursday, March 21st | 1:05pm | @ Cardinals | MLB.tv |
Friday, March 22nd | 6:35pm | vs. Phillies | YES, MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Saturday, March 23rd | 1:05pm | vs. Blue Jays | YES, MLB.tv, MLBN live |
Sunday, March 24th | 1:05pm | @ Twins | MLB.tv, MLBN tape delay |
Monday, March 25th | 5:05pm | @ Nationals | MLB.tv, MLBN live |
Thoughts on MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects for 2019
Earlier this week the prospect gurus at MLB.com released their annual top 30 Yankees prospects list. The other scouting publications released their Yankees prospect lists within the last few weeks as well. As always, MLB.com’s list is entirely free. The list, the scouting reports, the scouting grades, the whole nine. It’s a great resource.
MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects last month. Here are their top ten Yankees prospects and their place on the top 100 list:
- OF Estevan Florial (No. 57 on the top 100)
- RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 66 on the top 100)
- RHP Albert Abreu
- RHP Deivi Garcia
- RHP Clarke Schmidt
- C Anthony Seigler
- OF Everson Pereira
- RHP Trevor Stephan
- OF Antonio Cabello
- RHP Roansy Contreras
“While the Yankees’ farm system isn’t as overflowing with big league-ready talent as it has been recently, they do have an impressive stockpile of high-ceiling/high-risk youngsters,” writes Jim Callis. “… New York is one of the best organizations at helping pitchers improve their velocity and spin rates, giving it an intriguing wave of overpowering arms that has yet to surface in the big leagues.”
Noticeably absent from MLB.com’s top 30 list is RHP Freicer Perez, who ranked eighth last year. Six disaster starts and season-ending shoulder surgery will do that. I dropped Perez to 19th on my top 30 list. Anyway, here are some thoughts on MLB.com’s top 30 list, or rather some thoughts on the information included in the scouting reports.
1. Putting numbers on Florial’s tools. Most of the chatter about Florial this winter revolved around his pitch recognition, or lack thereof. And yes, his pitch recognition is a significant issue. It must improve for him to have a long and productive big league career. Fortunately he turned only 21 in November and has time to get better.
All the attention being paid to Florial’s pitch recognition can make it easy to forget what makes him such a quality prospect. MLB.com’s 20-80 scouting scale grades give him the best grade in four of the five tools among the top 30. Look at this:
- Power: 55 (tied with C Josh Breaux, OF Anthony Garcia, OF Ryder Green)
- Speed: 65
- Fielding: 60 (tied with OF Everson Pereira)
- Throwing: 65
As a reminder, 20 on the 20-80 scale is terrible, 80 is great, and 50 is average. Florial is above-average in four of the five tools and a full grade better than average in three of the five. His 45 hit tool is what prevents him from being a truly elite prospect, but damn, four above-average tools? It’s easy to lose sight of that. If he is able to conquer his pitch recognition issues — a big IF, of course — Florial can be a big time all-around impact player.
2. Are Medina’s issues mental? RHP Luis Medina has the most electric arm in the system. It’s easy upper-90s gas with a hammer curveball and a good changeup. The kid just has no idea where the ball is going. He walked 46 batters in 36 innings with Rookie Pulaski last year, or exactly one-quarter of the batters he faced. Medina also uncorked a dozen wild pitches, so yeah, control is an issue.
In MLB.com’s scouting report, they note “some observers believe his strike-throwing issues are more mental than physical.” They’re not the only publication to mention this either. FanGraphs said something similar in their recent top Yankees prospects list. From FanGraphs:
Medina’s issues aren’t physical — his delivery is fine and his arm stroke is clean. Instead, the problem appears to be mostly mental. He’ll throw well in the bullpen only to have things will snowball for him in game situations. One source described his issues as stemming from a need for greater mental maturity and to not be so hard on himself, which are exactly the kinds of traits that come with general social maturity.
Huh. Most of what I’ve read attributed Medina’s control issues to a delivery he struggles to repeat. MLB.com and FanGraphs both say that no, the delivery is good, the control problems are more mental than physical. Medina is still only 19 and it’s silly to think he should be more polished than he is at this age. Dellin Betances had (has) similar stuff and it took him until his mid-20s to harness it. Medina strikes me a similar long-term project. Strike-throwing issues stemming from a mental block seem more difficult to correct than strike-throwing issues that stem from a bad delivery, but who knows. Everyone is different. Medina’s control issues are bad but we’re not in Jeff Degano/Jason Neighborgall territory either. Hopefully as he gains experience he’ll get the ball closer to the plate. I just thought it was interesting to read his control problems could be mental rather than related to his delivery.
3. Osiel Rodriguez is the next big thing. At this time last year Pereira was the next big thing. He signed as an international amateur free agent the previous summer and quickly filled out his frame and shown increased power potential. This year’s next big thing is 17-year-old Cuban righty Osiel Rodriguez, who the Yankees gave $600,000 last year after acquiring bonus pool space in the Luke Voit trade. MLB.com ranks Rodriguez the 18th best prospect in the system. A snippet of their scouting report:
Somewhat reminiscent of former Yankees star Orlando Hernandez, Rodriguez has a seemingly endless combination of pitches and arm slots. He has an electric arm that produces 92-95 mph fastballs that top out at 97 with high spin rates that give him rising life up in the strike zone. His hard curveball is a bit more effective than his harder slider, with both displaying the potential to become plus pitches, and his changeup has splitter action and similar upside … He has a lofty ceiling, as his chance to develop four plus offerings could make him a frontline starter.
Well then. Rodriguez will play this entire season at age 17 and he’s yet to appear in a pro game, so as exciting as that scouting report is, we have to pump the brakes a bit. The scouting report mentions he “doesn’t have the cleanest arm action and there’s effort in his delivery,” which you can see in the video below, and pro hitters will tell us what they think about Rodriguez once he gets into games. Since the 2014-15 signing spree dud, the Yankees have done some great work internationally — six of MLB.com’s top ten Yankees prospects were originally signed internationally by the Yankees — and Rodriguez (and unranked OF Kevin Alcantara) looks like this year’s breakout candidate.
5. The Yankees are really short on infield talent. There is one (1) infielder on MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects list. That is SS Thairo Estrada, who is coming back from what was essentially a lost season. That’s it. He’s the best infield prospect in the organization. The Yankees are very deep in pitching (21 pitchers in the top 30) and Florial, Pereira, and Cabello give them some high-end outfield talent. The infield? Not so much. Granted, having Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar at the big league level lessens the need infield prospects, but the infield is a weakness in the farm system right now. Recent international signees like SS Ronny Rojas, SS Roberto Chirinos, and SS Oswald Peraza could help correct the infield deficiency in the coming years. At this time last year the Yankees were short on catchers. Now they’re short on infielders. I don’t believe the Yankees specifically drafted Seigler and Breaux to address their catching shortage last year and I don’t think they’d prioritize infielders early in the draft this year either. At the top of the draft, you have to take the best talent regardless of position. Drafting for need is pointless because it’s so difficult to project what you’ll need three or four years down the line, when that prospect is big league ready. That all said, it would certainly be convenient if the best available player is an infielder when the Yankees make their first few draft picks this summer. The system needs an infield infusion.
A Partial Contract Season for Sir Didi [2019 Season Preview]
The 2019 Yankees suffered their first major injury in October 2018. During Game Two of the ALDS, Didi Gregorius blew out his elbow on a throw to the plate, and after the series the Yankees announced he would undergo Tommy John surgery. Sir Didi played with his torn elbow ligament for the remainder of the series. Turns out there was a good excuse for those uncharacteristically wild throws in Games Three and Four.
Gregorius tore his ulnar collateral ligament on this play, specifically:
Gregorius turned 29 earlier this week and he had his Tommy John surgery on October 17th. He is right on track with his rehab so far. Gregorius started a throwing program last week and he’s expected to be cleared to swing a bat two-handed following his next doctor’s visit in early March. So far, so good with his rehab.
Short of signing Manny Machado, replacing Gregorius was going to be impossible this winter. He’s gotten better and better each year with the Yankees, and last season he put up a .268/.335/.494 (121 wRC+) batting line with 27 homers in 134 games around a heel injury. Good defensive shortstops who can hit like that are hard to find. Didi is, rather easily, the team’s best pure left-handed offensive threat.
The typical Tommy John surgery rehab for position players is much shorter than it is for pitchers. The Yankees will be without Gregorius for some length of time this year but they do expect him to return and play a good chunk of the season. Troy Tulowitzki will play shortstop for the time being. Time to preview Sir Didi’s already injured-shortened 2019 season.
When might he return?
“I hate giving a timeline because we’ll let the thing play out,” said Boone when asked about Gregorius last week. “I think our original was anywhere from 2-4 months maybe into the season. He certainly seems at least on that pace. He’s in really good shape and progressing the way he should be so we’re optimistic that he’s going to play hopefully a significant amount of the season for us.”
Tommy John surgery is not especially common for position players and infielders especially. Most position player Tommy John surgeries involve catchers or outfielders. Jon Roegele’s Tommy John surgery database includes ten non-first base Major League infielders with known surgery dates. Here’s how long it took them to return to the big leagues:
Surgery Date | Return Date | Days to Return | |
---|---|---|---|
Rafael Furcal | March 13th, 2013 | June 13th, 2014 | 409 |
Randy Velarde | April 8th, 1997 | May 13th, 1998 | 400 |
Paul Molitor | May 21st, 1984 | April 9th, 1985 | 323 |
Kelly Johnson | June 1st, 2006 | April 2nd, 2007 | 305 |
Cesar Izturis | Sept. 16th, 2005 | June 20th, 2006 | 277 |
Mike Aviles | July 7th, 2009 | April 8th, 2010 | 275 |
Ray Olmedo | Nov. 9th, 2004 | June 28th, 2005 | 231 |
Tony Womack | Oct. 6th, 2003 | April 5th, 2004 | 182 |
T.J. Rivera | Sept. 14th, 2017 | Pending | |
Corey Seager | May 4th, 2018 | Pending |
It’s a small sample, and even within that sample we run into other problems. Molitor, Johnson, and Aviles returned to game action on Opening Day, though they participated in Spring Training, so they likely would’ve returned earlier had the timing worked out better. Womack? Good gravy he came back fast. He had his surgery soon after the end of the regular season and was back on the field for Opening Day. We know Gregorius won’t do that.
There are some cautionary tales here. Rivera dealt with several setbacks and still hasn’t returned from his elbow reconstruction. Furcal and Velarde were slowed during their rehab as well. To me, the most relevant players here are Izturis and Olmedo. They had their surgeries late in the year and returned the next year without being rushed (like Womack), without a setback (like Furcal and Velarde), and without having to wait around for Opening Day (like Molitor, Johnson, and Aviles).
Izturis needed a little more than nine months to make it back. Olmedo made it back in just under eight months. An 8-9 month timetable puts Gregorius on track to return somewhere in mid-June to mid-July. There’s (somewhat) recent precedent for that. I think the Yankees and Gregorius would sign up for 8-9 months right now. That means getting him back for half the season and maybe a little more.
Ultimately, every rehab is different. By all accounts Didi’s rehab is going well and it could be that he makes it back quicker than Izturis or Olmedo. It’s almost possible he’ll feel a twinge at some point and need to slow things down. The hope is Gregorius will start swinging a bat in the middle of next month. That means he’s likely to miss at least two months of the regular season once you factor in the necessary rehab games.
What should we expect when he comes back?
With a healthy elbow, there’s every reason to believe Gregorius will come back as the same player he was before Tommy John surgery. He’s in his prime, so age-related decline is not a concern. I’m more worried about his defense, specifically his throwing arm, than his bat post-elbow surgery, and worried isn’t the right word. I just mean that, if we see some lingering effects of the injury, it’ll probably be on throws more than swings.
Since I have the numbers in front of me, here’s what those Major Leaguer infielders who had Tommy John surgery did in their last full season before surgery (their last healthy season, in theory) and in the year they returned (so we can see the immediate aftermath). I’m leaving out Rivera and Seager because they haven’t returned yet (duh).
Age at TJS | Year before TJS | Year back from TJS | |
---|---|---|---|
Rafael Furcal | 35 | 85 OPS+ and +1.3 WAR (121 G) | 25 OPS+ and -0.2 WAR (9 G) |
Randy Velarde | 34 | 104 OPS+ and +2.1 WAR (136 G) | 102 OPS+ and +0.5 WAR (51 G) |
Paul Molitor | 27 | 110 OPS+ and +4.6 WAR (152 G) | 110 OPS+ and +4.6 WAR (140 G) |
Kelly Johnson | 24 | 91 OPS+ and +1.4 WAR (87 G) | 116 OPS+ and +3.7 WAR (147 G) |
Cesar Izturis | 26 | 88 OPS+ and +3.8 WAR (159 G) | 57 OPS+ and +0.9 WAR (110 G) |
Mike Aviles | 28 | 121 OPS+ and +4.7 WAR (102 G) | 104 OPS+ and +1.5 WAR (110 G) |
Ray Olmedo | 23 | 49 OPS+ and -0.6 WAR (79 G) | 62 OPS+ and -0.6 WAR (54 G) |
Tony Womack | 33 | 71 OPS+ and +0.5 WAR (153 G) | 91 OPS+ and +3.3 WAR (145 G) |
For the most part, our little Tommy John surgery group came back well immediately following surgery, at least relative to who they were before the injury. Furcal was at the end of the line — those nine games he played following Tommy John surgery were the final nine games of his career — and Olmedo was a utility guy who never produced much. Izturis was always glove over bat as well.
Again, every player and every rehab is unique, so Gregorius is not guaranteed to come back as strong as some of those players in the table. To me, it is comforting to see that this group didn’t collectively fall off the table in their first year back from surgery. They completed their rehab and went back to being the player they were before Tommy John surgery. Sir Didi is very good and the little bit of information we have about Major League infielders having elbow reconstruction tells us he is likely to again be very good after surgery.
What about his upcoming free agency?
The Tommy John surgery came at an unfortunate time for Gregorius and the Yankees. I mean, there’s never a good time for Tommy John surgery, but in this case, the injury happened right as Gregorius was set to enter his contract year. He won’t have a fully healthy contract year and the injury surely complicated any contract extension talks with the team. The Yankees and Didi avoided arbitration with a one-year deal and that’s it.
Following the recent Luis Severino deal, Brian Cashman said the Yankees have discussed extensions with other players without providing any details. I have to think Gregorius is among those players. The Yankees love him — seriously, what’s not to love? — and above-average two-way shortstops in the prime of their career are hard to find. The injury stinks, but I don’t think it’ll be a dealbreaker.
“I’m not going to say on individual cases,” Cashman said to Erik Boland when asked about possible extensions following Severino’s deal last week. “We’ve approached certain players and we are always open for the right people to do things and find common ground if that’s at all possible. We’ve had conversations with some, not all, but if they lead to multi-years, great, this one did. Other attempts so far have failed.”
The Yankees could sign Gregorius to an extension that begins in 2020 without changing his 2019 luxury tax number ($11.75M). They couldn’t do that with Severino because Severino had not yet agreed to a 2019 contract. That’s what the arbitration hearing would’ve decided. Gregorius has a 2019 contract. The extension can begin next year and save the team some luxury tax money this year.
Given where we are now, I think the Yankees are going to wait to see how Gregorius bounces back from Tommy John surgery before getting serious about contract extension talks, unless of course he’s willing to sign a sweetheart deal. Didi is awesome, but free agency is squeezing even awesome players. Going out into the open market with Tommy John surgery in the recent past is probably kinda scary.
In a normal free agent climate, Gregorius could’ve sought something along the lines of Jean Segura’s five-year, $70M contract. In this free agent climate, and after Tommy John surgery, does he even get three years and $13M annually? Zack Cozart hit .297/.385/.548 (140 wRC+) with 24 homers and +5.0 WAR in 2017, became a free agent when he was one year older than Gregorius will be when he becomes a free agent, and he received three years and $38M. Hmmm.
If the Yankees do sign Gregorius to an extension at some point soon, I think it would be along the lines of the Cozart deal. Gregorius gets the guaranteed payday and doesn’t have to worry about finding work so soon after Tommy John surgery and in a rough free agent market. If the two sides wait for an extension, well, who knows? He could return and crush the ball, and raise his stock. Or he could struggle and see his stock fall. That’d be a bummer.
* * *
The top priority right now is helping Gregorius complete his Tommy John surgery rehab. Both he and the Yankees have said he won’t came back early as a DH — “I want to be back completely. I just want to make sure everything’s all right before I go out there. I haven’t even thought about hitting before everything,” he said recently — because there’s no sense in rushing him. It’s too risky, especially for Gregorius personally.
Tommy John surgery may seem routine but it is not a minor surgery. Lots can go wrong. The good news is Gregorius is doing well with his rehab and is on track to return to the team sometime around midseason, though the Yankees continue to decline to provide an estimated return date. I don’t blame them. Remember the “we expect Aaron Judge back in three weeks” fiasco from last year? Yeah. No need to put a date on it right now.
Losing Gregorius hurts the Yankees on both sides of the ball. He is their top left-handed bat and their best defensive infielder. We can guesstimate that he’ll return sometime in mid-June or mid-July, though that is hardly set in stone, much like Tulowitzki being a competent stopgap. The sooner Sir Didi returns, the better it will be for him and his impending free agency, and the better it’ll be for the Yankees. Just don’t expect them to be reckless and rush his rehab.
- « Previous Page
- 1
- …
- 47
- 48
- 49
- 50
- 51
- …
- 4059
- Next Page »