DotF: Jagielo goes deep as Trenton hangs on for a win

Triple-A Scranton (6-1 loss to Lehigh Valley)

  • LF-RF Slade Heathcott: 2-4
  • RF Ramon Flores: 0-0, 1 HBP — left the game after being hit by the pitch in the first inning … hopefully it’s nothing serious
  • 2B Rob Refsnyder: 0-4, 1 RBI
  • DH Tyler Austin: 0-4, 1 K
  • LHP Eric Wooten: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 6/2 GB/FB — 48 of 75 pitches were strikes (64%)
  • RHP Branden Pinder: 1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K — 20 of 25 pitches were strikes (80%) … tough day, first he gets send out and then he gets hit around

[Read more…]

Offense tacks on late, Yankees and Eovaldi beat Tigers 5-2

After an annoying loss Monday night, the Yankees rebounded with a 5-2 win over the Tigers on Tuesday. The offense scored early and tacked on late, and for the second straight game, the Yankees got a very good outing from their starting pitcher against a tough Detroit lineup. New York has won six of their last nine games.

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

One Run Ain’t Enough
The first six innings of Tuesday’s game felt a lot of the first six innings of Monday’s game. The Yankees scored an early run on a Mark Teixeira extra-base hit (a double to score Brett Gardner in the first) and nursed that 1-0 lead into the seventh while blowing an opportunity or two along the way, just like Monday. Except instead of never tacking on to that one run, the offense was able to plate three insurance runs in the seventh inning Tuesday.

The Yankees scored their second and third runs on solo homers — one by Chris Young and one by Stephen Drew. Neither was a bomb but hey, they all count. Given the cold weather and on again, off again rain, I’m not sure hitting a bomb was possible at Comerica Park on Tuesday. The fourth run was manufactured with speed. Jacoby Ellsbury singled, stole second, moved to third on Gardner’s infield single, then scored on a wild pitch. A single and an error created a much-appreciated fifth run in the ninth.

After Monday night, the 4-0 lead (and later 5-1) felt like 10-0. I mean, I know it’s never really that close against a team as good as the Tigers — the ninth inning was a nice reminder, eh? — but it felt like a huge relief after watching the Yankees try to hang on to those 1-0 leads the last two nights. They could have added more runs in the eighth — the first two runners reached but Drew (pop-up), Gregorio Petit (strikeout), and Ellsbury (pop-up) couldn’t capitalize — but they ultimately didn’t need ‘em. Runs are cool. I like runs.

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Nasty Nate In Your Area
Nathan Eovaldi‘s three starts in pinstripes have gotten progressively better. He took the ball into the eighth inning on Tuesday night — Joe Girardi yanked him with his pitch count sitting at 94 following a leadoff double in the eighth — and held the high-powered Tigers to one run on eight hits and a walk. The run scored after the Yankees took their 4-0 lead and was the result of a double, a wild pitch, and a sac fly. That was all the Tigers got off the starter.

Eovaldi was helped out by a real nice play by Teixeira, who went home with Anthony Gose’s chopper in the third inning rather than try for the double play or just take the out at first. (The runner was caught in a rundown between third and home and eventually tagged out.) Gose is too quick, so a double play wasn’t happening, and I’m not even sure Teixeira could have beaten Gose to first base after coming in to field the chopper. Saved a run early in the game and really helped Eovaldi settle into.

Eovaldi had just one 1-2-3 inning but was bailed out by four double plays, including one he started after catching a line drive hit at his chest. It was one of those “the ball caught him” plays. Eovaldi recorded 17 of his 21 outs on the infield and while he did allowed eight hits in seven innings, more than a few of them were ground balls through holes created by the shift. The Yankees really suck at shifting. For the first time as a Yankee, Eovaldi seemed in control of a game and he did it against a great offense. Nice job, Nate.

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Leftovers
Dellin Betances retired three straight after replacing Eovaldi to strand a runner at second in the eighth. He threw ten pitches and four were fastballs. Not a big sample but he still seems to be leaning on that breaking ball. Chris Martin struck out two and allowed two hits before giving way to not-the-closer Andrew Miller, who walked two batters (the second walk forced in a run!) before getting the final out for his fifth save in five chances. Never easy.

The Yankees had eight hits and they all came from four players: Gardner and Drew had two apiece, Teixeira had one hit, and Young had three hits. Young went 3-for-3 with a homer and two walks. He’s been awesome. The rest of the lineup went a combined 0-for-20. The Yankees drew eight walks and only struck out five times. Is that good? That seems good.

Brian McCann tried to bunt to beat the shift in the third inning but failed. Kyle Lobstein, who kept the Yankees off-balance with soft stuff for six innings, fielded the ball and threw him out with ease. Why McCann bunted with a man on first and two outs, I have no idea. Two outs! Swing the bat in that spot.

And finally, I wasn’t joking when I said the Yankees suck at the shift. They came into the game allowing a .314 BABIP on ground balls. The MLB average is .238. Good grief. Ban the shift because the Yankees stink at it.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Here are the box score, video highlights, and updated standings. Also make sure you check out our ultra-important Bullpen Workload page and much less important Announcer Standings page. Here is the win probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The Yankees and Tigers will play game three of this four-game series on Wednesday night. Fifth starter Adam Warren draws perennial Cy Young contender David Price. Fun!

Game 14: Bounce Back

Some guy did a back flip before the first pitch last night. (Leon Halip/Getty)
Some guy did a back flip before the first pitch last night. (Leon Halip/Getty)

The Yankees dropped a very winnable game in last night’s series opener against the Tigers. Winnable because of CC Sabathia, mostly. You’re not going to beat this Detroit team scoring just one run most nights. Oh well, nothing they can do about it now. The Yankees just have to turn the page and try to get back on track tonight. They have won five of their last eight games, after all. Things are going okay.

Nathan Eovaldi is making his third start in pinstripes tonight and he’s looking to build on his last start, when he fanned nine in only five innings. Of course, three runs and eleven base-runners in five innings kinda stinks, so he needs to improve on that too. If Eovaldi keeps missing bats, the number of runs and base-runners should eventually come down. Here is the Tigers’ lineup and here is the Yankees’ lineup:

  1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
  2. LF Brett Gardner
  3. DH Alex Rodriguez
  4. 1B Mark Teixeira
  5. C Brian McCann
  6. RF Chris Young
  7. 3B Chase Headley
  8. SS Stephen Drew
  9. 2B Gregorio PetitKyle Lobstein is pretty much exactly the kind of lefty I think Didi Gregorius should be left in the lineup to face, but I guess Joe Girardi disagrees

    RHP Nathan Eovaldi

The weather in Detroit tonight is a lot like last night: rainy, cold, and windy. It rained earlier this afternoon but is supposed to stop before game time. There might be some drizzle during the game though. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm ET and can be seen on YES locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy the game.

Roster Move: The Yankees have recalled Chasen Shreve and optioned Branden Pinder to Triple-A, the team announced. Shreve was sent down following the 19-inning game and his ten days in the minors are up. Welcome back, Chasen.

Yanks not planning to use sixth starter this turn through the rotation

(Brian Blanco/Getty)
(Brian Blanco/Getty)

Despite talking for weeks about getting Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, and the other starters extra rest whenever possible early in the season, the Yankees are not planning to use a sixth starter this turn through the rotation, Joe Girardi told reporters yesterday. Everyone will stay on turn and pitch on normal rest this week.

“Right now we have Tanaka pitching Thursday,’’ said Girardi to George King. “I didn’t plan it that way, it’s kind of the way it worked out. I think we will check on workloads and see how guys are doing … If a couple of our starters have difficult days, you might plug (a sixth starter) in before they pitch.’’

Tanaka threw 85 low-stress pitches in seven dominant innings Saturday afternoon. He was removed from the game after sitting in the dugout during a long seven-run inning for the offense, not because he was ineffective or his pitch count climbed too high. Tanaka hasn’t started on regular rest at all this year, either in the regular season or Spring Training.

Adam Warren (80 pitches), Michael Pineda (92 pitches), and Sabathia (98 pitches) didn’t crack 100 pitches in their most recent starts either. In fact, only once in 13 games has a Yankees starter thrown 100+ pitches this season. That was Nathan Eovaldi in his last start (101 pitches). Eovaldi is starting tonight with an extra day of rest thanks to last Thursday’s off-day.

Chase Whitley, Bryan Mitchell, and Kyle Davies seem like the most obvious sixth starter candidates at this point of the season. Whitley is scheduled to start for Triple-A Scranton tomorrow and is the only one of those three lined up to pitch before the big league rotation turns over, so he’s the only possible sixth starter candidate this week if the Yankees do choose to use one.

The Yankees are not off again until next Thursday, so following the upcoming turn through the rotation, both Tanaka and Pineda would also make their next starts on regular rest unless the team uses a sixth starter. That’s a full week away though. We’ll see what happens after the weekend.

Ramon Flores is forcing the issue, but the Yankees don’t have a spot for him

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

This spring, all eyes were on prospects Rob Refsnyder, Aaron Judge, and Greg Bird when Grapefruit League play opened. They’re three of the Yankees’ very best prospects and all could be in the big leagues sooner rather than later, especially Refsnyder. All three of them had strong Spring Trainings as well, at least offensively. This was a good spring to prospect watch. That’s for sure.

While those three were doing their thing and others like Slade Heathcott, Luis Severino, and Jacob Lindgren were flashing their ability, outfielder Ramon Flores flew under the radar and had a productive spring. His overall Spring Training numbers weren’t great (.239/.314/.413 in 51 plate appearances) but he finished very strong, going 7-for-18 (.389) with two doubles and a homer in the final two weeks, when big leaguers were getting most of the playing time.

Flores was one of the last cuts from big league camp and he went to Triple-A Scranton, where he hit for the cycle on Opening Day and had a two-homer game a week later. He has a .271/.340/.625 (188 wRC+) batting line with four homers in 53 plate appearances in the very early going, and has hit .251/.340/.473 (134 wRC+) with eleven homers in 324 Triple-A plate appearances overall since the start of last year. Flores would have played more with the RailRiders last summer had he not suffered a fluke ankle injury running the bases and missed more than two months.

Two years ago I aggressively ranked Flores as the fifth best prospect in New York’s system — Baseball America has never ranked him higher than 12th in the system (also prior to 2013), for what’s it worth — and said he is “a classic foul line-to-foul line hitter who will need to add some strength to turn his gap power into over-the-fence power down the road.” Well the over-the-fence power has started the arrive. Flores hit nine homers in only 68 total games last year after hitting six homers in 136 games in 2013 and seven homers in 132 games in 2014. And he’s already got four homers in eleven games this year. Development!

I consider Flores more of a high probability prospect than a high ceiling prospect, someone who is more likely to spend ten years in the league as a platoon left-handed hitting corner outfielder than someone who goes to a few All-Star Games at his peak. He’s a Seth Smith type, basically. That’s okay! That’s a very useful player and someone the Yankees should be happy to have only the phone call away in Triple-A. You need depth players like that. The cheaper and more homegrown they are, the better.

The problem is the Yankees have no real spot for Flores on the roster. Not now and probably not next year either. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are two of the best players on the team, and, like it or not, Carlos Beltran‘s contract and track record mean he’s going to have a very long leash. It’s not going to take one injury for Flores to get a chance with the Yankees, it’ll probably take two injuries because Chris Young and Garrett Jones are ready to step in if an outfielder gets hurt. It could happen, sure, but a lot needs to go wrong.

Right now Flores should be at the front of the line for a call-up, but there are other outfielders right behind him on the depth chart. Tyler Austin is also in Triple-A and has the advantage of batting right-handed, which the Yankees need more (both short and long-term) than another lefty like Flores. Judge is in Double-A and expected to be an impact player, not a role player like Flores. Jake Cave is also putting up numbers is Double-A and can legitimately play center field, unlike Flores. Heathcott and Mason Williams are trying to salvage their careers as well. Flores is at the front of the call-up line, but for how long?

These days we follow prospects from the day they sign their first pro contract, so it feels like Flores has been around forever, but he just turned 23 last month. He’s exactly one year younger than Refsnyder, who is considered the shiny new toy with two years and change of pro ball to his credit. Flores does have only 73 career games at Triple-A to his credit, so a few more weeks with the RailRiders wouldn’t be the end of the world, but, both short and long-term, it’s tough to see where Flores fits with the Yankees unless they do something unexpected like cut Beltran or trade Gardner. Flores is a quality player who doesn’t fit the current roster.

A trade is always possible but I’m not sure what the Yankees could get in return for someone like Flores, who’s cheap and figures to be productive but is unproven at the MLB level and doesn’t play a hard-to-fill position. The Tigers traded a similar player in Matt Joyce to the Rays for three years of Edwin Jackson during the 2008-09 offseason, but Joyce hit .252/.339/.493 (116 OPS+) with 12 homers in 92 big league games in 2008. He had some sort of MLB track record. Flores doesn’t and it’s hard to see how he’ll get much of a chance to prove himself in New York anytime soon.

“(Flores is) a guy who’s definitely on our radar. If something was to happen to one of our outfielders, I think he’d be a pretty strong candidate (to be called up),” said Joe Girardi to Ryan Hatch in Spring Training, and I totally believe it. Flores is the obvious call-up candidate if an outfielder hits the DL, but getting called up and actually playing are different things. Gardner and Ellsbury have to play, Young has earned some more playing time, and Beltran’s leash is long. In just about any other organization, Flores would be forcing his way onto the MLB roster right now. Instead, he’s stuck with the Yankees, where it’ll take multiple injuries or a surprising trade of a veteran to get a chance.

How A-Rod became the Yankees’ best hitter

Goodbye, baseball. (Photo credit: Kim Klement/Reuters)
Goodbye, baseball. (Photo credit: Kim Klement/Reuters)

There are few people who could have predicted Alex Rodriguez would be the leader or co-leader on the Yankees in batting average, on-base percentage, Wins Above Replacement, OPS, runs, RBI and homers – and arguably the team MVP – after the first two weeks of the season (yes, despite his 0-fer on Monday). Heck, six months ago it seemed like everyone was trying to figure out how the team could release him and recover part of the $61 million he’s still owed over the next three seasons.

Sure, it’s an incredibly small sample. The guy is also almost 40 years old while playing on two surgically-repaired hips, so he’s very likely not going to sustain this incredible pace.

But this scorching hot start is still very real, and nearly unprecedented even in the context of A-Rod‘s career. The last time he had this many homers, RBI and hits in the team’s first 13 games was 2007, the same year he won the AL MVP award.

We know that only a few years ago he was an elite third baseman and his natural hitting skills are off the charts, but these eye-popping numbers are still somewhat shocking for a player that was out of the game for a year and was pretty mediocre the last time we saw him in a baseball uniform.

So what has been the key to A-Rod’s early-season performance? And how much of it can he sustain going forward?

Going, going, going…gone!
One of the reasons to be optimistic about his numbers is the fact that he’s absolutely crushing the ball. We’re talking mammoth, tape-measure homers and really solid bat-to-ball contact — power that few could have predicted at the start of spring training.

His average batted ball distance of 246 feet leads all major league players and his average batted ball velocity of 99.3 mph is the second-highest in MLB (min. 5 at-bats). He also ranks among the top 20 of all players in hard-hit rate – the percentage of at-bats ending in a hard-hit ball, based on video review – according to ESPN’s stat guru Mark Simon.

A-Rod owns the longest home run hit by anybody this season – a 477-foot shot on Friday night – and is the only player with three “no doubt” homers, according to hittrackeronline.com. (A no-doubt homer means the ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet and landed at least 50 feet past the fence.)

A-Rod home run chart

Can he handle the heat?
A key question heading into the season is whether A-Rod’s bat would be able to catch up to fastballs. Pitchers haven’t been shy about challenging A-Rod with the heater, and he’s done a good job so far answering his critics by going 6-for-15 with four homers and a double in at-bats ending in four-seamers.

Of the 11 four-seasm fastballs he’s put into play so far, only one has been a ground ball and four have been classified as line drives. Need more proof? No player has a higher slugging percentage or hit more homers against four-seam fastballs this season than Alex.

Patience is a virtue
Another encouraging sign is the strong place discipline numbers that Rodriguez is showing so far. His walk rate of 18 percent would be a career-high and swing rate at pitches out of the zone (26 percent) is better than the current league average. He clearly has done a good job of working counts and waiting for pitches in his sweetspot, while laying off pitches he can’t demolish.

If there’s one big weakness in his approach at the plate, though, it is his high whiff rate. His contact (63 percent) and strikeout percentages (31 percent) would both be career-worsts and are well-below-average. Pitchers have really exposed A-Rod’s propensity to swing and miss at off-speed and breaking pitches, especially down in the zone, as detailed in the heat map below:

ARod Whiffs per swing

While this lack of contact and tendency to chase soft stuff could be a concern going forward, it’s impact is probably lessened by his patience and good batting eye. As long as he can continue to get ahead in the count, take his walks and force pitchers to throw him hittable pitches, A-Rod should be able to keep up a high on-base percentage and give the Yankees a solid power bat on a consistent basis.

We know that A-Rod is probably not going to hit 40 homers and likely won’t finish with a near-.500 OBP at the end of the season. He is going to regress, but based on what he’s shown in these first few weeks, there is a good chance that he’ll be at least capable of providing above-average production for a team that could really use his power and patience in the lineup.

Silver Lining: CC Sabathia shows he still has something left in loss to Tigers

Changeup! (Presswire)
Changeup! (Presswire)

The Yankees dropped last night’s series opener to the Tigers in a pretty annoying way — they jumped out to an early 1-0 lead, didn’t build on it, then watched as Detroit used some less than well struck balls to rally for two runs in seventh. An annoying loss, no doubt, but it’s still just one loss. Before you know it that game will fade from memory and blend into the glob of baseball we forget each season.

The loss did come with a silver lining, however, and that of course was CC Sabathia‘s complete game performance. He allowed those two runs on seven singles and three walks, and it wasn’t until that seventh inning that the high-powered Tigers had a runner reach second base. Sabathia struck out five, threw 62 of 98 pitches for strikes (63%), got nine swings and misses, and 12 of the 21 balls put in play against the big lefty were on the ground. Solid performance all around.

Unlike his first two starts, when his velocity gradually faded as the game progressed (first start, second start), Sabathia held his velocity all night last night despite the cold, windy, rainy conditions. He hit 90.7 mph in the first at-bat of the game and 91.7 mph in the last. There was no drop-off. Here’s the velocity graph via Brooks Baseball:

CC Sabathia Tigers velocity

Most pitchers lose a little something in the later innings, it’s normal, but for a guy who’s lost noticeable fastball oomph with age, sustaining velocity all night was a very encouraging sign for Sabathia. His margin for error is relatively small as it is, and if he’s able to avoid having that margin for error get even smaller when his pitch count climbs north of, say, 70 pitches, the more effective he’ll be overall.

I thought Tigers manager Brad Ausmus did Sabathia a bit of a favor by loading his lineup with right-handed hitters — all nine players in his lineup were righties — because it allowed him to stick with the same approach all night: fastballs to both sides of the plate and changeups down and away. He threw only eleven sliders out of 98 pitches (11%) after throwing 28% sliders in his first two starts. The lack of a lefty hitter allowed Sabathia to get in a rhythm and stick with one approach all night.

That’s a luxury Sabathia won’t have every start but teams do still stack their lineups with righties again him — only six of the 53 batters he faced in his first two starts were lefties, and even last season only 31 of 209 batters faced were lefties (15%). Sabathia’s changeup is super important because he always faces a ton of right-handed batters and last night was an opportunity to really dig in and work on that pitch, which was an issue in his first two starts (opponents hit .308 against it).

Coming into the season, we really had no idea what to expect from Sabathia following knee surgery and 257 pretty ugly innings from 2012-13 (4.87 ERA and 4.22 FIP). His three starts have gotten progressively better — five runs in 5.2 innings, four runs in seven innings, two runs in eight innings — and there are other positive signs as well, including the way he held his velocity and used his changeup last night. The loss stunk, that’s baseball, but the Sabathia we saw last night can be an effective pitcher. CC is trending in the right direction earlier this season, for sure.