On the eve of the offseason, FanGraphs’ released their contract crowdsourcing results for the top 55 free agents this coming offseason. Here’s the link. The crowd generally underestimated contract values for the top free agents last year, as the intro notes. Still, it’s a nice look at how a large group of people think these free agents will be valued, which is something no one can ever seem to agree on.
The FanGraphs’ crowd projects four years and $56M for Chase Headley, three years and $36M for Brandon McCarthy, three years and $30M for David Robertson, and one year and $7M for Stephen Drew. Sounds reasonable enough to me. I wonder if a team will step forward and offer a fourth guaranteed year to McCarthy or Robertson. That would probably put them over the top. I think the crowd’s six-year, $132M projection for Jon Lester is way light, especially compared to Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $168M projection. Anyway, check out the numbers. They’re a good starting point for conversation.