Scouting the Free Agent Market: Ryan Howard

(Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
(Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Hi everyone. Just to introduce myself, I’m a 23-year-old Penn grad from New Jersey. As Mike mentioned on Wednesday, I interned at The Players’ Tribune a couple summers ago. I’ve been following RiverAveBlues since 2008 and have been a Yankees fan for much longer. I also write at CSN Philly, so fittingly my first post here is about a former Phillie.

In under three weeks, the Yankees will be reporting to Spring Training. Based on comments from Brian Cashman and the general Yankees vibe of the last couple years, it’s unlikely they’ll make another major addition prior to camp, particularly with the team’s mandate to get under the luxury tax line in the next couple seasons.

However, there’s always room for guys who would come in on minor league deals with camp invites. One of the biggest names who is likely amenable to this arrangement is former NL MVP Ryan Howard. The 37-year-old first baseman is a far cry from that MVP season and he received a farewell from the Phillies at the end of last season, but he is not retired. Ken Rosenthal profiled him as he’s working to prove himself and stay in the game, hoping to find a part-time 1B/DH job in the American League. Could the Yankees use him? Time to examine that question further.

Offensive Performance

You’re not getting 2006-2011 Ryan Howard. For that six-year stretch, he averaged 33 home runs and 133 RBI with a 139 OPS+. During that stretch, Howard was a cornerstone for the Phillies’ playoff runs and 2008 World Series title. He was the NLCS MVP in 2009, although it’s hard to forget Damaso Marte’s dominance of him in the 2009 World Series.

So what is Howard now? He is no longer a full-time player, in large part because he can no longer hit left-handed pitching. He always had a platoon split, but it has become more dramatic as he’s aged. In 2016, he had -4 OPS+ against lefties in just 35 plate appearances, hitting an unseemly .121/.143/.212 (-14 wRC+). Simply put, if Howard is playing for the 2017 Yankees and getting significant playing time against lefties, something has likely gone seriously wrong.

And there’s a lot from his 2016 season to dislike. Specifically, the first two months. They were dreadful. Howard looked like a beaten down version of himself and it seemed like last season was the end of the road. In April and May, he struck out in over a third of his 158 plate appearances. May 2016 was probably the worst month of his career, sporting a .421 OPS and a 6 wRC+.

After the Phillies called up their first baseman of the future, Tommy Joseph, Howard was demoted into a part-time role and began to thrive when the calendar flipped to June and July. He still struck out a fair amount in the second half (30.3 K%) but his .262/.324/.608 (142 wRC+) performance in that time was a throwback to the Howard of old. During that period, his hard contact and line drive percentages perked up. He finished the season with 25 home runs, his third straight season with at least 23.

Statcast gives more reason to believe that Howard’s second half is real. On 207 batted-ball events, Howard had 33 barrels, or highly well-struck balls essentially, good for 9.1 percent of his plate appearances. That is 10th in all of baseball last year, one spot behind Giancarlo Stanton (Gary Sanchez is third). His exit velocity was 92.5 mph, tied for 3rd in the majors. Power is Howard’s calling card and even with his struggles, that’s one thing he is sure to provide.

Here’s his spray chart heat map from last season via Baseball Savant. He pulls the ball on the ground a lot and a little less in the air, but he’d still benefit from the short porch. As with many lefty power hitters, he deals with the shift a fair amount.

ryan-howard-spray-chart

As you may have guessed, his base running is well below average, even for a first baseman. His age doesn’t help, nor does the Achilles’ injury he suffered in 2011 (more on that below). He hasn’t stolen a base since 2011. Even before his injury, he was consistently a net negative on the base paths and that would certainly continue in 2017.

Defensive Performance

Just like on the bases, Howard’s speed, or lack thereof, hurts him in the field as well. Looking at FanGraphs’ Inside Edge Fielding for the last four seasons, Howard makes almost none of the plays rated unlikely to impossible and gets just 42.3 percent of the plays rated about even. Bird had similar numbers in his 2015 stint, but in a 10th of the sample size.

For first basemen with at least 1000 innings over the last four seasons, Howard is 39th out of 43 players in UZR/150 innings. Howard’s arm is rated poorly and he had a below average season in 2016 at coming up with scoops. He’s certainly no Mark Teixeira. Ultimately, playing him in the field is not a desired outcome. He’d ideally be a DH for any team, but his bat could make up for his first base deficiencies.

Injury History

Howard has spent parts of four seasons – 2007, ’10, ’12 and ’13 – on the disabled list. The most famous and significant injury was his Achilles tear in the final at-bat of the Phillies 2011 NLDS Game 5 loss to the Cardinals. He didn’t return until July the next season.

After the Achilles injury, he clearly lost a step, evidenced by his lack of stolen bases, not that he was fleet of foot to begin with. He’s actually been pretty healthy in recent seasons, partly thanks to a reduced role. If he is in a platoon role at first base and DH, his health shouldn’t be too much of a worry.

Miscellaneous


I feel I’d be holding out on you if I didn’t show you Howard’s workout video from this offseason. His personal trainer begins it by saying his goal was “not to create a better baseball player, but to create a superhuman who also happens to play baseball” with an amused Howard looking on. Despite the hilarious quote, the video is actually a good peek into Howard’s workout routine and his viewpoint on his ‘breakup’ with the Phillies. Take a look.

Contract Estimates

The Phillies declined their $23 million team option for 2017, buying Howard out for $10 million. Overall, Howard received $135 million over the last five seasons. Not bad.

As mentioned at the outset, Howard’s likely looking for a MiLB deal with a camp invite. Likely one including an opt-out date towards the end of the spring.

Does He Fit The Yankees?

(Mike Ehrmann/Getty)
(Mike Ehrmann/Getty)

At first glance, the answer is no. If Greg Bird is hitting in spring training and looks like he did prior to his shoulder surgery, the answer is almost definitely no. But if Bird isn’t quite himself or the team determines he needs more time in AAA, well, then it gets a bit tricky. Tyler Austin could certainly take the first base job, but the Yankees very well may decide in that scenario to platoon him with … you guessed it, a veteran like Howard.

A DH platoon with Matt Holliday doesn’t make sense in terms of roster flexibility. Two players that can essentially only DH and pinch hit? Not optimal. Then there’s the fact that Holliday has almost no noticeable split and, in fact, has had years with reverse splits.

Howard, in theory, could accept AAA assignment and get brought in if the Yankees dealt with injuries at first, but it’s doubtful “The Big Piece” would take that demotion, even if it means returning to where he career took off (Scranton was the Phillies’ AAA affiliate when Howard rose through their system). The Yankees also signed 1B Ji-Man Choi to an MiLB deal that’ll likely mean Choi will be Scranton’s first baseman.

So Howard would have to earn his spot in the spring and Bird would likely have to lose it. With Howard, you want to catch lightning in a bottle, hoping that he can be like another Phillie position player turned Yankees DH. Howard’s 2016 second half may have just been a mirage, but a camp invite is probably worth the chance to determine whether that’s true.

Thursday Notes: Mendoza, Montgomery, Prospect Lists

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The seemingly never-ending offseason continues. I guess the good news is the Yankees’ first Grapefruit League game is four weeks from tomorrow, and yes, that game will be broadcast on the YES Network. Four weeks and one day until actual baseball is on your television. It’ll be glorious. I’ll post the full Spring Training broadcast schedule once all the networks announce their plans. Until then, here are some newsy nuggets to check out.

Hector Mendoza declared a free agent

Cuban right-hander Hector Mendoza has been declared a free agent by MLB, reports Jesse Sanchez. Sanchez says Mendoza is expected to wait until his 23rd birthday on March 5th to sign, at which point he would be a true free agent unaffected by the international spending restrictions. Every team, including the Yankees and other clubs currently limited by international bonus penalties, would be able to sign him to a contract of any size at that point.

Back in April 2015, Ben Badler (subs. req’d) ranked Mendoza as the 12th best prospect in Cuba, one spot ahead of current Dodgers farmhand Yasiel Sierra. “At his best, he throws 90-94 mph with downhill plane, with solid strike-throwing ability and fastball command for his age … His 76-80 mph curveball is a solid-average pitch,” says the two-year-old scouting report. It also mentions Mendoza features a changeup and figures to start long-term.

Sierra signed a six-year deal worth $30M last February — he then pitched to 5.89 ERA (4.26 FIP) in 88.2 innings split between High-A and Double-A last year, and reportedly didn’t impress scouts either — so I guess that’s the benchmark for Mendoza. The Yankees have steered clear of the big money Cuban player market the last few seasons, so I’m not expecting them to get involved. And, frankly, I didn’t even know the guy existed until a few days ago.

Teams asking for Montgomery in trades

According to George King (subs. req’d), Brian Cashman confirmed teams have asked for left-hander Jordan Montgomery in trade talks this offseason. “He is a starter and left-handed. His name comes up,” said the GM. Not only that, but Montgomery has already has success at Triple-A (albeit in 37 innings) and is close to MLB ready, making him even more desirable. Here’s my prospect profile.

It can be really easy to overlook a guy like Montgomery given the strength and depth of the Yankees’ farm system, but he’s come a long way as a prospect the last few seasons. He’s added a cutter and also gained quite a bit of velocity, going from 88-91 mph in college to 93-95 mph in 2016. The Yankees seem to have a knack for getting guys to add velocity. Their throwing program must be good. We’ll see Montgomery in the Bronx in 2017. I’m sure of it.

MLB.com’s top prospects by position

Over the last few days MLB.com has been releasing their annual positional prospect lists. That is, the ten best prospects at each position. Several Yankees farmhands make appearances on the various lists. Here’s a quick recap:

I’m a bit surprised the Yankees only had one player on the outfield list, but eh, whatever. The shortstop list is stacked as always. Torres is one spot ahead of Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson, the first overall pick in the 2015 draft. Mateo is one spot ahead of Twins shortstop Nick Gordon, the fifth overall pick in the 2014 draft.

James Kaprielian failing to crack the top ten righties shouldn’t be a surprise. He did miss just about the entire 2016 season, after all. Also, I’d be more bummed about not having a top catcher prospect if, you know, Gary Sanchez didn’t exit. But he does and that’s cool. Same thing with first base and Greg Bird. Landing five prospects in the various top ten lists is pretty cool.

Update: On Twitter, Jim Callis says Blake Rutherford ranks 14th among outfielders in MLB.com’s upcoming top 100 prospects list.

Spring Training is getting shorter

Starting in 2018, Spring Training will be a whole two days shorter, reports Ronald Blum. Huge news, eh? As part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement the regular season will increase from 183 days to 187 days starting in 2018, and the shorter Spring Training will help make that happen. The goal was to add more off-days “in a way that doesn’t just chew up offseason days,” said MLBPA general counsel Matt Nussbaum.

The players have been pushing for more in-season off-days for a while now, and at one point they proposed shortening the season to 154 games. I’m not surprised that didn’t happen. The owners would be giving up four home games each, plus television contracts would have to be revised because they include a minimum number of broadcasts and things like that. Lots of logistical issues to work through. So anyway, two fewer days of Spring Training in two years. Yippee.

The catcher’s interference record is a symptom of Jacoby Ellsbury’s problem at the plate

... dude. (Presswire)
… dude. (Presswire)

Last year Jacoby Ellsbury shattered the very obscure single-season catcher’s interference record. He reached base 12 times (12 times!) because his swing hit the catcher’s glove. The previous record was eight by Roberto Kelly with the 1992 Yankees. There were 39 instances of catcher’s interference around the league last year and Ellsbury had nearly one-third of him. Hey, that’s why they gave him all that money, to smash records.

Anyway, Ellsbury has always had a knack for catcher’s interference — he has 26 in his career, second all-time to Pete Rose, who had 29 in 10,924 more plate appearances (!) — so it’s not a complete surprise he set a new record last year. But going from two or three catcher’s interferences a year to a dozen in one season is staggering. It’s like averaging 10-15 homers a year and then suddenly having a 60-homer season.

The catcher’s interferences were a fun running gag, and hey, any way Ellsbury can get on base helps the team. That said, they’re a symptom of a larger problem. Ellsbury’s swing is out of whack. He’s swinging too deep in the strike zone and not making good contact out over the plate. Hitting coach Alan Cockrell discussed this last week and said they’ve been working on it this offseason. From Bryan Hoch:

“For me, the biggest thing with Jacoby is moving his contact out front a little bit more,” Cockrell said. “I’ve never seen a guy hit the catcher’s mitt like he did. I think when Ells’ contact point was maybe three, four more inches more out front from where it is right now, he can stay on balls. We’re not looking for power production, but he can be a very, very productive hitter.”

“We looked at all the video from his really big year in Boston, and his contact point was probably three or four inches more,” Cockrell said. “So we tailored his cage routine and his maintenance work to where we’re moving contact — not a lot, not a foot and a half, but just three to four inches more in front of his body.”

As far as I know there’s no data on where the hitter makes contact within the zone. The point of contact is not something PitchFX records, and if Statcast has that data, I have no idea where to find it. Anecdotally this makes sense though. Ellsbury is not necessarily losing bat speed. His swing path is all screwed up. It’s too long in the back.

In theory, moving Ellsbury’s contact point up a few inches means there will be more leverage in his swing when the bat strikes the baseball, allowing him to better drive pitches. When he makes contact deep in the zone, there’s not much swing behind it, so he’s not impacting the baseball all that hard. At least that’s what I think is happening here, anyway. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Cockrell mentioned they’ve been working on this since last year, so it’s not a new development. They didn’t review tape after the season and discover the flaw. They’ve known about it a while but haven’t had much success fixing the problem. “It’s one of those midseason things that feels awkward, and it’s tough to go out and play every night and think about something like that. This is something that we’ll talk about in Spring Training,” said the hitting coach.

I’m not terribly optimistic Ellsbury will be an above-average hitter going forward. He’s hit .264/.326/.382 (95 wRC+) in nearly 1,800 plate appearances with the Yankees and ZiPS projects a .269/.324/.383 (97 OPS+) batting line in 2017. That sounds about right to me. I don’t think moving his contact point out a few inches will be a magic cure-all, and if Ellsbury can stay within 5% of league average next year offensively, I’ll take it.

The catcher’s interference record was a weirdly entertaining sidebar to the season, and while reaching base is a good thing, they were part of a much larger problem. Ellsbury is not anywhere close to the player the Yankees thought they were getting based on what they paid him, but if Cockrell can move his contact point up and turn some of those catcher’s interferences into base hits, it’ll help Ellsbury contribute more to the offense, and the Yankees could sure use it.

Wednesday Night Open Thread

We let the cat out of the bag on Twitter last night, but it’s time for the formal announcement on the site. We have (finally) completed our search for new writers. We’ve added two new members to the RAB team:

Thank you again to everyone who applied. There were a ton of quality submissions. Seriously. Whittling the list down was very difficult. And also thanks for your patience. It took us a good month to finalize things. Domenic and Steven will begin posting soon. Be sure to welcome them aboard.

Now that the official business is out of the way, this is tonight’s open thread. The Rangers, Knicks, and Nets are all playing, plus there’s a slew of college hoops games on as well. Talk about that stuff here.

Austin’s quick adjustment last season bodes well for 2017

(Rich Schultz/Getty)
(Rich Schultz/Getty)

Hands down, my favorite moment of last season was Tyler Austin and Aaron Judge socking back-to-back home runs in their first career at-bats. (Gary Sanchez‘s two-month rampage was awesome, but not really a “moment.”) The Yankees had just sold at the deadline and turned things over to the kids, and they provided instant gratification. That was such a fun afternoon.

As you know, both Austin and Judge slipped into slumps following their home runs because the big leagues are hard, especially when you’re just getting your first taste. Judge hit a few more mammoth homers along the way but his slump basically lasted until he suffered a season-ending oblique injury on September 13th. That was pretty lame. The good news is Judge is healthy and working on things this winter.

Austin, on the other hand, came out of his slump in September and finished the season strong, which included a handful of clutch late-inning home runs. Overall, Austin hit .241/.300/.458 (102 wRC+) in his 90 plate appearances with the big league team last summer, which isn’t too shabby for a kid getting his first taste of the show. Here’s a fun graph showing how Austin reached that 102 wRC+ at season’s end:

tyler-austin-wrc

He started with a bang, slumped hard for a bit, then gradually climbed his way back to respectability, all in a relatively short period of time. Austin recently admitted to Brendan Kuty he was trying to hit a home run each time he went to the plate early on, which got him out of whack mechanically. After some work with hitting coaches Alan Cockrell and Marcus Thames, Austin got back on track and finished strong.

“My head was flying out, swinging at everything — in and out of the zone,” said Austin to Kuty. “That’s not me. That was just me trying to hit a home run every time up and trying to pull anything I could. When I’m right, I can hit the ball out of the park using all parts of the field.”

We certainly saw that all fields power last season. Well, no, actually. That’s not true. Austin hit five home runs and all five were to the opposite field at Yankee Stadium. It really was an impressive display of opposite field power. We’ve yet to see Austin pull the ball over the fence, though I suspect it’s only a matter of time until that happens. The kid clearly has some power.

Austin was indeed swinging at everything early on — he went 3-for-31 with ten strikeouts immediately following the debut homer — before settling down and showing some semblance of plate discipline. Here are his in-zone and out-of-zone swing rates:

tyler-austin-swing-rates

His out-of-zone swing rate (O-Swing%) was sky high at first before coming back down to Earth. Austin managed to finish the season with a 30.7% swing rate on pitches out of the strike zone, which is almost exactly league average (30.6%).

As for pitches in the strike zone, Austin’s swing rate was a touch high for a bit before stabilizing. His overall 73.1% swing rate on pitches in the zone was quite a bit higher than the 63.9% average, though swinging at pitches in the zone isn’t a bad thing. The next step is learning to tell a hittable pitch in the zone from one you should lay off, such as a changeup at the knees likely to generate weak contact.

Getting to the big leagues was not easy for Austin, who at one point was designated for assignment and went through waivers unclaimed. And let’s not kid ourselves either, he’s close to a bat only prospect. Austin is not a good gloveman at first and he’s comfortably below average in right field. He’ll have to hit and hit big to have big league value, and the fact he made a quick adjustment to stop chasing out of the zone bodes well going forward.

The Yankees insist the first base job is up for grabs and will not automatically go to Greg Bird, though I’m sure if you could get an honest out of Brian Cashman & Co., they’d say they want Bird to take the job and run with it. Austin could very well be Bird’s platoon mate at first base while also seeing time in the outfield and at designated hitter. If he hits, they’ll get him in the lineup somehow.

Austin had to basically turn his entire career around last season just to get back to Triple-A, nevermind reach the big leagues for the first time. And now that he’s in the show and has had some level of success, he’ll be given the opportunity to remain on the roster. This is hard part. Keeping the big league job. Austin’s quick adjustments last year were nice to see, and he’ll have to keep making them to be part of the Yankees going forward.

Prospect Profile: Jordan Montgomery

(Jason Farmer/Scranton Times-Tribune)
(Jason Farmer/Scranton Times-Tribune)

Jordan Montgomery | LHP

Background
Montgomery, who turned 24 last month, grew up in the relatively small town of Sumter, South Carolina, about 40 miles outside Columbia. He was a star at Sumter High School and was named 2011 Gatorade State Player of the Year after going 11-0 with a 0.38 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 74.1 innings as a senior. Montgomery tossed a seven-inning shutout in the state championship game that year.

Despite a stellar prep career, Baseball America did not rank Montgomery among their overall top 200 prospects or even their top 40 prospects in South Carolina prior to the 2011 draft. He went undrafted that year and instead followed through on his commitment to the University of South Carolina, where stepped right into the rotation and was teammates with former Yankees farmhand Tyler Webb.

As a first year player in 2012, Montgomery pitched to a 3.62 ERA in 74.2 innings spread across 13 starts and two relief appearances. He struck out 57 batters and walked only ten. That earned him a spot on the Freshman All-American Team. Montgomery threw eight scoreless innings against Arkansas to help put South Carolina in the College World Series Finals, where they lost to Rob Refsnyder‘s Arizona Wildcats.

The following season Montgomery emerged as the staff ace by throwing 79 innings of 1.48 ERA ball. He struck out 64 and walked 18. The Gamecocks did not advance to the College World Series in 2013, but Montgomery did keep their season temporarily alive by shutting out North Carolina in the Super Regionals. He allowed four hits in the game. Montgomery was named Gamecocks MVP and to the SEC Academic Honor Roll.

As a junior in 2014, Montgomery threw a collegiate career high 100 innings with a 3.42 ERA while striking out 95 and walking 29. He was again named to the SEC Academic Honor Roll. Baseball America ranked Montgomery as the fourth best 2014 draft prospect in South Carolina and the 120th best prospect in the draft class overall. The Yankees selected him in the fourth round (122nd overall) and signed him quickly for a full slot $424,000 bonus.

Pro Career
The Yankees took it easy on Montgomery after the draft and limited him to only 19 innings in his pro debut. He had a 3.79 ERA (2.30 FIP) with 20 strikeouts and six walks in those 19 innings split between the rookie Gulf Coast League and Short Season Staten Island. All told, Montgomery threw 119 innings in 2014.

The following season the Yankees assigned Montgomery to Low-A Charleston, but that didn’t last very long. He was promoted to High-A Tampa after only nine starts, and he remained with Tampa the rest of the season. Montgomery had a combined 2.95 ERA (2.61 FIP) with 24.1% strikeouts and 6.6% walks in 134.1 innings at the two levels in 2015.

This past season Montgomery started at Double-A Trenton, where he remained most of the summer. It wasn’t until early August that he was bumped up to Triple-A Scranton. He finished the year with a 2.19 ERA (2.91 FIP) with 22.7% strikeouts and 7.7% walks in 152 total innings. Montgomery set a RailRiders’ record with a 29.2-inning scoreless streak, and he got the win in the Triple-A Championship Game over El Paso (Padres).

Scouting Report
Montgomery is a big dude at 6-foot-6 and 225 lbs., and he’s been gradually adding velocity over the years. He sat in the mid-80s in high school, got up to 88-90 mph for most of his college career, then lived in the 90-92 mph range in pro ball in 2015. Last year his velocity climbed again, this time into the 93-95 mph range, and he held that velocity all season and deep into starts. How about that?

That 93-95 mph fastball is Montgomery’s straight four-seamer. He also throws a sinker that is more of a low-90s offering, as well as a cutter right around 90 mph. His best pitch is a sinking changeup in the low-80s. Montgomery also has a quality curveball, so he’s a true five-pitch pitcher. As you’ll see in this video, he throws from an extreme over-the-top arm slot:

Montgomery is a good athlete and he repeats his delivery very well for someone his size. He has no problem filling the strike zone and the guy never misses a start. He’s been healthy all throughout his amateur and pro career. The Yankees love that Montgomery has thrived in pressure games — SEC baseball is incredibly competitive — and that he’s a very diligent worker.

2017 Outlook
The Yankees will surely bring Montgomery to big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring, and while I would bet against him winning an Opening Day roster spot, it’s all but guaranteed he’ll make his MLB debut at some point this summer. Montgomery will return to Triple-A for the time being and continue to fine tune things until his time comes. It’s important to note he is not on the 40-man roster yet, which could work against him. Others like Dietrich Enns and Ronald Herrera could get the call first.

Miscellany
I don’t mean this as a slight, but I didn’t think too much of Montgomery when he was first drafted. I thought maybe he could be a left-handed version of Adam Warren, a successful big program college starter who finds success as a big league swingman, but since then Montgomery has added a cutter and gained considerable velocity, improving his long-term outlook dramatically. He’s gone from swingman candidate to no-doubt starter in his two full pro seasons. It’s hard not to love that.

The only real concern I have about Montgomery is his arm slot, and whether it’ll lead to a big platoon split because right-handed hitters get a good look at the ball. Right-hander Josh Collmenter has a similar arm slot and lefties have hit him pretty hard over the years. Montgomery was actually more effective against righties than lefties in the minors this year, though I wouldn’t read too much into that. We’ll just have to see how his arm slot plays in the show when the time comes. For now, Montgomery is a near MLB ready workhorse southpaw, and good gravy do the Yankees need one of those.

What are Baseball Prospectus’ new control and command tools telling us about Masahiro Tanaka?

(Maddie Meyer/Getty)
(Maddie Meyer/Getty)

All throughout the week, the fine folks at Baseball Prospectus are rolling out a slew of new pitching metrics. They’re attempting to measure things that were previously unmeasurable, like command and deception and the effects of pitch sequencing. Last year they revolutionized catcher defense stats, and now they hope to do the same with the guys on the mound.

Two of the tools the BP crew rolled out earlier this week are stats that serve as proxy measurements of control and command. Control is the basic ability to throw strikes. Command is the ability to throw quality strikes, meaning hit the corners of the zone and keep the ball out of the heart of the plate. You can have good control and bad command. Example: Michael Pineda. He rarely walks hitters, but he also struggles to keep the ball out of the middle of the zone.

The article explaining the new stats is free to read, so I recommend checking it out. In a nutshell, Called Strike Probability, or CS Prob, measures control by telling us the likelihood of a pitch being called a strike based on all the other pitches in that location around the league. Called Strikes Above Average, or CSAA, reflects command by telling us whether a pitcher is reliably hitting his spots. CSAA is adjusted for the catcher, umpire, the whole nine. It isolates the pitcher’s contribution to the called strike (or ball).

After scrolling through the leaderboards, the data told me pretty much exactly what I expected. Pineda rates very well in CS Prob and very poorly in CSAA. Dellin Betances rates below-average at both. I’m not sure that will surprise anyone. I was looking through various Yankees pitchers and it all made sense. And then I got to Masahiro Tanaka. Look where he ranks among pitchers to throw at least 100 innings:

Pitchers with 100+ IP CS Prob Rank CSAA Rank
2014 149 134th 32th
2015 141 123rd 10th
2016 144 78th 20th

According to the data, in each of his three seasons with the Yankees, Tanaka has ranked in the bottom half of the league in control but near the top of the league in command. That doesn’t make sense! Intuitively, a pitcher can have good control and bad command, but not bad control and good command. If you can command your pitches and dot the corners of the zone, surely you can throw strikes.

So obviously the CS Prob and CSAA data is wrong, right? The stupid made up numbers are broken and the statheads are ruining the game. Yeah, sure, that’s always possible. Before we jump to that conclusion, we should consider exactly what CS Prob and CSAA are attempting to tell us first. CS Prob is quite simply “how likely is it this pitch will be called a strike?” CSAA is a tad more complicated. From the primer article:

Traditionally command is understood as the ability to “hit your spots”—having the ball end up where you intend it to. Over the years this has been studied in numerous ways—most notably by attempting to determine how much the catcher moves his glove to receive a pitch. This is flawed because the catcher’s glove isn’t always the target, and we can’t know where the pitcher is truly intending the pitch to go.

What we can do is come at command from a different angle. A pitcher with good command should be more predictable for the catcher—their pitches often end up in the locations, and with the movement that the catcher expects. This skill results in easier receiving for catchers, and additional called strikes for the pitcher. Once we aggregate the data cross thousands of pitches, CSAA is able to tell us whether a pitcher is reliably hitting his spots.

That make sense? CSAA measures the extent to which the pitcher affects the likelihood of the pitch being called a strike. The BP crew admits CSAA is not a perfect measure of command, but they’ve found the CSAA leaderboard reflects command pitchers very well. Guys like Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks are the CSAA kings while others like Betances and Pineda rank among the league’s worst. It passes the sniff test.

We know for a fact Tanaka rarely walks batters — he had a 4.5% walk rate in 2016 and it’s 4.3% in his three MLB seasons — indicating good control. The guy throws strikes. Having watched him pitch with my own eyes the last three seasons, it seems Tanaka lives on the corners of the strike zone. Here, via Baseball Savant, is a heat map of his called strikes since 2014:

masahiro-tanaka-heat-map

Look at that. It’s beautiful. The dark splotches, which indicate where the majority of Tanaka’s called strikes are located, are on the edges of the strike zone. The lightly shaded areas indicate fewer pitches in that location, and for Tanaka, that includes the middle of the strike zone. Every pitcher wants to control the strike zone that way. Live on the corners, stay out of the middle of the plate. Here, I’m going to label the heat map to make things a little more clear:

masahiro-tanaka-heat-map-annotatedThat’s what you’re seeing in the heat map, essentially. If you’ve watched Tanaka pitch at all these last few years, you know he loves to throw that running two-seamer away to righties and in on lefties, and have it dart back over to plate to nip the corner for a called strike. Like this:

masahiro-tanaka-two-seamer

The pitch looks like it’s going to sail way outside to a right-handed hitter — or way inside to a lefty — before moving back over the plate to catch the corner. It’s a wonderfully effective pitch, and generally speaking, that’s the splotch on the left side of the heat map. The lower right blob is splitters — and possibly some sliders and curveballs too — and they’re pretty self-explanatory. They sometimes hit the bottom corner of the zone for a called strike, though they usually dive out of the zone for a swing and miss.

The CS Prob and CSAA data is not broken even though it’s indicating Tanaka has bad control but great command. Tanaka is just an outlier. We know he throws strikes. His consistently low walk rate is evidence of that. The assumption he has good command has always been based on our observations, but now we have some data telling us that yes, Tanaka is reliably hitting his spots. He lives on the edges of the plate, and because those pitches are less likely to be called strikes, his CS Prob rank is poor. But because he’s on the edges consistently, his CSAA is high. Make sense?

For most pitchers, their heat map of called strikes looks like a giant blob over the middle of the plate. Tanaka’s is the opposite. He keeps the ball out of the middle of the strike zone — not all the time, of course, but much more than most — and instead works the edges. That’s why he’s so successful despite not having a blow-you-away fastball. Tanaka is an artist on the mound. We’ve seen it the last three years. Now the CS Prob and CSAA data is confirming what our eyes have been telling us.