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Yankeemetrics: Escape from rainy Motown

April 16, 2018 by Katie Sharp Leave a Comment

(USA Today Sports)

Survive and Advance
The Yankees slow dance with mediocrity continued on Friday as they moved back to .500 with a 8-6 win over the Tigers. Fourteen games into the season and they haven’t lost more than two games in a row or won more than two games in a row, and they’ve been within a game of .500 following 12 of their 14 games played.

In his second game since coming off the DL, Aaron Hicks stole the show with a historic performance at the plate. In the second inning he drilled a hanging changeup to deep right-center, and as the ball caromed off the wall at an odd angle, Hicks motored around the bases and slide safely (with a big smile on his face) into home for his first career inside-the-park homer.

It was the first inside-the-parker by a Yankee since Curtis Granderson on August 21, 2011 at Minnesota. The last Yankee to hit one against the Tigers was Bill Robinson on June 4, 1967 in the Bronx, and the last Yankee with an inside-the-park homer in Detroit was Roy White on May 18, 1966 at the old Tiger Stadium.

But Hicks wasn’t done yet! In the sixth inning he went deep in the more traditional way with a majestic 417-foot shot into the right field bleachers to give the Yankees a 6-1 lead.

He became the first Yankee with an inside-the-park homer and an outside-the-park homer in the same game since Hank Bauer on May 30, 1956 in the second game of a doubleheader against the Senators at Yankee Stadium. Bauer was a tough, hard-nosed player (before joining the Yankees, Bauer won two Bronze Stars and two Purple Hearts as a marine in World War II), and the most notable stat of his baseball career is that hit safely in an MLB-record 17 straight World Series games from 1956-58.

The last time a Yankee player had a multi-homer game that also included an inside-the-parker on the road was August 13, 1939 at Philadelphia’s Shibe Park, when Babe Dahlgren and Joe DiMaggio both pulled off the feat in a 21-0 (!) win over the A’s. That game, by the way, remains the largest shutout win in franchise history.

Hicks also was the fifth Yankee to hit two-or-more homers in a game this season — joining Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Tyler Austin and Didi Gregorius — making the Yankees the first team in major-league history to have five different players with a multi-homer game this early into the season (14th game).

Miguel Andujar also powered the offense with a double and a triple, his first extra-base hits of the season. And even better, he earned our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: The last Yankee, who had less than 15 big-league games on his resume, to hit a double and a triple in the same game was a 22-year-old rookie named Bernie Williams in 1991.

(AP)

Not good, Dellin, not good
The Yankees nearly blew the game after another shaky outing by Dellin Betances, who gave up a solo homer and three runs in the eighth inning. It was the third home run he’s allowed this season, equaling the total he gave up all of last year. Important note: he’s faced 24 batters this season and faced 261 last year.

While the three home runs so far might be a fluke — he’s allowed three flyballs this season and all three have gone over the fence, which is an unsustainable 100 percent homer-to-flyball rate — there is little doubt in the numbers that he’s getting hit much harder this year compared to the past. The homer crushed by Jeimer Candelario on Friday had an exit velocity of 110.6 mph, the hardest-hit batted ball off Betances since Statcast began tracking that stuff in 2015. Overall, he’s allowed an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph, a huge jump from the 84.1 mph mark he allowed last year.

Digging deeper, the three dingers each came off his four-seam fastball, which has lost both velocity and spin this year, even when comparing to April last year.

Dellin Betances Fastball
Velocity (mph) Spin Rate (rpm)
2018 96.8 2,285
2017 98.3 2,430
April 2017 97.6 2,570

Keep in mind that the league average spin rate for four-seamers is 2,250, and high-spin fastballs result in more whiffs while low-spin correlates to more groundballs. Generally, the worst type of spin is average — which is exactly where Betances’ four-seamer is this year. The results have been ugly, too: Batters are 7-for-12 (.583) and slugging 1.333 (3 homers, 4 singles) when putting his fastball in play this season; last year opponents hit .200 and slugged .325 off Betances’ fastball.

One possible explanation for his diminished heater this season is that the vertical release point when throwing his fastball has dropped nearly five inches compared to last season, leading to a slower and flatter pitch. Betances, however claims that his pitches feel good coming out of his hand and his mechanics are sound. Speaking to reporters after Friday’s debacle:

This is the best I’ve felt in a while. Both (my fastball and curveball) I felt real good with and they just found holes with everything. The first guy got me good, but after that everything I threw was just hit. Even if I picked up the rosin (bag) and threw it, it was going to get hit. It was just one of those days. But I’ve got to continue to stay positive. Like I said, I haven’t felt like this good in a while. I like how I felt stuff wise, but they just had good hits.”

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Aaron Hicks, Dellin Betances, Detroit Tigers, Miguel Andujar, Yankeemetrics

Fan Confidence Poll: April 16th, 2018

April 16, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Record Last Week: 2-2 (22 RS, 33 RA)
Season Record: 7-7 (77 RS, 77 RA, 7-7 expected record)
Schedule This Week: Two games vs. Marlins (Mon. and Tues.); Weds. OFF; Four games vs. Blue Jays (Thurs. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

  • The week started with an off-day, then the Yankees went to Boston for a three-game set. They got embarrassed in Tuesday’s 14-1 loss. The Yankees rebounded with a 10-7 win Wednesday, a game that featured a benches clearing brawl. The series ended with a 6-3 loss Thursday.
  • The Yankees went to Detroit next and won 8-6 Friday, in the series opener. Both Saturday’s and Sunday’s games were rained out. They’ll be made up as part of a doubleheader on June 4th.
  • Injury Updates: CC Sabathia (hip) will rejoin the rotation Thursday. Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique, hip) received a cortisone shot in the hip and the hope is he will resume baseball activity soon. Brandon Drury (migraines) is still undergoing tests. Domingo Acevedo (blister) was placed on the Double-A disabled list. Gio Gallegos (unknown) was placed on the Triple-A disabled list.
  • Tyler Austin has been suspended five games as a result of Wednesday’s brawl with the Red Sox. He is appealing and thus eligible to play in the meantime. Sabathia and third base coach Phil Nevin were fined.
  • Shane Robinson was designated for assignment when Aaron Hicks rejoined the team Thursday. Jace Peterson was designated for assignment to clear space for Robinson earlier in the week.
  • The Orioles returned Rule 5 Draft pick Nestor Cortes. The Yankees acquired L.J. Mazzilli from the Mets in a minor trade.
  • The Yankees have among the smallest bonus pools for the 2018 draft and 2018-19 international signing period. Same story every year.
  • Once again, the Yankees are the most valuable franchise in baseball, per Forbes.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

DotF: Gilliam continues to mash in Tampa’s win

April 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Earlier today, following the double postponements, the Yankees announced RHP Luis Cessa has been optioned and OF Shane Robinson has been outrighted, both to Triple-A Scranton. Robinson remains with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. (UTIL Jace Peterson is still in DFA limbo.) The Yankees will call someone up to replace Cessa tomorrow, then they’ll need to send someone down Thursday to make room on the roster for CC Sabathia.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barres RailRiders (4-3 win over Charlotte in six innings) completed early due to rain

  • LF L.J. Mazzilli: 0-2, 1 RBI — three starts at three different positions since the trade
  • 3B Gleyber Torres: 1-3, 1 R, 1 K — that’s five straight starts at third base
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 2-3, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI — first multi-hit game of the year … he is 8-for-23 (.348) with one double, two homers, five walks, and five strikeouts in seven games so far
  • 1B Mike Ford: 1-3, 1 RBI
  • SS Abi Avelino: 1-2, 1 R
  • RHP Jonathan Holder: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 0/1 GB/FB — 15 of 22 pitches were strikes (68%) … not sure why he started today, but it could be that he’s working on a set schedule, and they wanted to make sure he threw his inning before the rain
  • RHP Brody Koerner: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR, 5/2 GB/FB — 37 of 57 pitches were strikes (65%)

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Down on the Farm Tagged With: Luis Cessa, Shane Robinson

Sunday Open Thread

April 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

No Yankees baseball this weekend, sadly. Today’s doubleheader in Detroit was predictably rained out. The Yankees and Tigers will play a makeup doubleheader on June 4th. So, with no game(s) today, I recommend checking out Robert Sanchez’s oral history of Aaron Judge’s and Giancarlo Stanton’s most majestic blasts from last season. “If anyone can afford it, Giancarlo Stanton can,” said Anthony Rendon after Stanton smashed a $50,000 camera with a homer last year.

Here is an open thread for this sudden Yankees baseball-less day. The Mets are playing right now, MLB Network is showing a game this afternoon, and ESPN will have the Astros and Rangers tonight. There’s also all the day’s NBA and NHL playoff action as well. Talk about those games or anything else here. Just not religion or politics, please and thank you.

Filed Under: Open Thread

Yankees vs. Tigers doubleheader postponed Sunday

April 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

(Presswire)

For the second straight day, the Yankees and Tigers have been postponed due to rain. Today’s split admission doubleheader has been rained out (freezing rained out, really), it was announced, and the two games will be made up as part of a doubleheader on June 4th.

The back-to-back rainouts are beneficial to the Yankees in three ways. One, the bullpen gets another day to rest after a heavy workload week. Two, the Yankees can skip Luis Cessa’s spot start. He was supposed to start yesterday in CC Sabathia’s spot. Sabathia is expected back Tuesday though, so the Yankees can skip Cessa.

And three, these two games get pushed off until later in the season. The Yankees are banged up right now and the bullpen is struggling. When these two games get made up in June, the Yankees will hopefully be healthier — Greg Bird is expected back by then, for example — and have a more effective bullpen, plus any trade pickups made between now and then will be available.

Losing an off-day to a makeup game always stinks, and in this case the Yankees are losing an off-day to travel to Detroit to play a doubleheader. Yuck. All things considered though, June 4th isn’t a bad off-day to give up. Here’s the June schedule:

The Yankees have two off-days in the seven days following the doubleheader on June 4th. The travel’s not too bad either. Baltimore to Detroit to Toronto. Again, it’s never fun losing an off-day to a travel to play a doubleheader. This isn’t awful though. Could be worse.

This six-game turned four-game road trip ends with a split, and the Yankees are heading home for a two-game series with the Marlins. Luis Severino, today’s scheduled starter, will presumably get the ball in Monday night’s opener. That’s one of those experimental 6:35pm ET starts. Old buddy Caleb Smith will be on the bump for the Marlins.

Update: Aaron Boone said Severino will start Monday and Masahiro Tanaka will start Tuesday. Both will be on an extra day of rest. Sabathia will come off the disabled list to start Thursday. (The Yankees have an off-day Wednesday.)

Filed Under: News

Walker ‘Grounded’ to Start 2018

April 15, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

Walker. (Presswire)

A little over a month ago, the Yankees scooped up the somehow-still-a-free-agent-infielder Neil Walker. Taking advantage of the galactically warped free-agent market, he cost just $4 million, a steal in any year for almost any player, let alone one who could offer the team the flexibility to play both infield corners on top of his natural position of second base. Unfortunately, that flexibility was necessarily tested when Greg Bird went down with an injury, forcing Walker to first. Since then, Walker has flown under the radar. With the high-profile struggles of both Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup, it’s easy to miss that Walker enters Sunday hitting just .188/.264/.208 with a .215 wOBA and 30 wRC+.

Let’s give Walker credit for two things before we examine what’s gone wrong. He’s walking at a rate above his career average, 9.4% this year to 8.7% overall. He’s also striking out less at 13.2%, compared to 17.4% for his career. Were it to continue all year, it’d be his lowest K% in a season by over two percentage points. Does that combination make up for the fact that his SLG is lower than his OBP? Well, no, but silver linings and all that. Another silver lining? Walker has, per FanGraphs, a career high hard contact rate at 39%. Of course, there are caveats–I wouldn’t be writing this if there weren’t.

The first caveat is that this career high in hard contact also comes with a career high in soft contact, 29.3%. His previous high there was 19.3 in 2011 and his career rate is 15.5. The other caveat is in the end result of that hard contact. For his career, Walker has had a solid line drive rate at 22% even. This has been coupled with a groundball rate of 39.6%. This year, those things are completely out of whack. Walker’s line drive rate so far has been a dismal 9.8% and his groundball rate has been 51.2%, meaning all that hard contact is essentially ending in a bunch of worm-burners.

Those numbers–pretty much all of the 2018 ones–are so extreme that they’re bound to progress to the middle at some point. What’s the solution, though, to getting his production back up where it belongs? Perhaps some mechanical tweet to get more air under the ball is in order, but I’m no hitting coach, so I’ll leave that to Marcus Thames.

Walker is definitely not this bad of a hitter and will no doubt give back to the Yankees. Fortunately, the Yankees will not be relying on Walker to provide a ton of offense. Even as a starter, he’s in a support role near the bottom of the lineup and his ability to play all over the infield gives him value beyond his time at the plate. And, given his contract status, there’s almost nothing Walker could (or couldn’t?) do from here on out to make his signing not worth it.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Neil Walker

DotF: Torres and Avelino stay red hot in Scranton’s win

April 14, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Here is all four strikeouts today from Dillon Tate today at Double-A Trenton: pic.twitter.com/9GHARYORAl

— Max Wildstein (@MaxWildstein) April 15, 2018

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barres RailRiders (10-5 win over Charlotte) they faced White Sox RHP Michael Kopech, arguably the top pitching prospect in the minors

  • RF L.J. Mazzilli: 1-3, 2 R, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB — his bases clearing double was the big blow that helped turn a 5-1 deficit into a 10-5 win after Kopech was out of the game
  • 3B Gleyber Torres: 2-5, 1 R, 2 2B, 3 RBI — went 0-for-3 against Kopech before doubling twice against the bullpen … three straight multi-hit games … he’s gone 14-for-33 (.424) since going 0-for-4 on Opening Day … Aaron Boone told Marc Carig the Yankees have had vice president of baseball operations Tim Naehring in Scranton watching Torres, so make of that what you will
  • DH Mike Ford: 2-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
  • C Erik Kratz: 1-3, 2 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB — The Kratzken
  • SS Abi Avelino: 2-3, 2 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 SB — 9-for-18 during his little five-game hitting streak
  • CF Rashad Crawford: 2-4, 1 R, 1 RBI
  • LHP Daniel Camarena: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 5 BB, 2 K, 1 HR, 5/3 GB/FB — 39 of 70 pitches were strikes (56%)
  • RHP Brady Lail: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HB, 4/0 GB/FB — 19 of 33 pitches were strikes (58%) … easily his best outing in the super early going
  • RHP Cody Carroll: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 26 of 41 pitches were strikes (63%) … 8/3 K/BB in 5.1 innings so far

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Down on the Farm

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