9/26-9/28 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Boy these late-season Yankees-Red Sox series have lost something off their fastball these last few years, haven’t they? Both teams have already been eliminated from postseason contention, so they will wrap-up their seasons this weekend with nothing more than bragging rights on the line. The Yankees are 10-6 against the Red Sox this year, including 4-2 at Fenway Park.

What Have They Done Lately?
The BoSox just took two of three from the Rays — they outscored them 22-4 in the last two games — but they’ve won only seven of their last 17 games. They are 70-89 with a -82 run differential overall, both the fourth worst marks in the AL.

Offense
At 3.88 runs per game with a team 90 wRC+, the Red Sox are the Yankees’ equal offensively. That’s not a compliment. (The Yankees average 3.88 runs per game with a team 91 wRC+.) Boston will be without 1B Mike Napoli (123 wRC+), 2B Dustin Pedroia (99 wRC+), UTIL Brock Holt (98 wRC+), and OF Shane Victorino this weekend (88 wRC+). They’re all hurt and have been shut down for the season. DH David Ortiz (135 wRC+) is dealing with wrist inflammation and he is unlikely to play as well.

Bogaerts. (Jim Rogash/Getty)
Bogaerts. (Jim Rogash/Getty)

With all those familiar names out of action, manager John Farrell builds his lineup around OF Yoenis Cespedes (110 wRC+) and 1B Allen Craig (29 wRC+). Craig has looked completely helpless at the plate since hurting his foot last year. 2B Mookie Betts (131 wRC+) is having a nice late-season cameo and SS Xander Bogaerts (82 wRC+) has been better the last two weeks or so. The recently signed OF Rusney Castillo (79 wRC+ in very limited time) is still trying to find his way. OF Daniel Nava (99 wRC+) rakes against righties (118 wRC+).

The rest of the lineup includes 3B Will Middlebrooks (44 wRC+) and C Christian Vazquez (69 wRC+). OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (47 wRC+) seems to have played his way out of the organization’s plans and is now just a defensive replacement, even with all the injuries late in the season. C David Ross (74 wRC+) is the backup catcher. The long list of September call-ups includes C Dan Butler, C Ryan Lavarnway, 3B Garin Cecchini, IF Carlos Rivero, IF Jemile Weeks, and OF Bryce Brentz.

Pitching Matchups

Friday: LHP Chris Capuano (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Steven Wright (vs. NYY)
The Red Sox have already shut down their various young starters and the 30-year-old Wright is getting the spot start tonight. He’s appeared in five games for Boston this year, all in relief, allowing six runs in 16 innings with 18 strikeouts and two walks. Wright had a 3.41 ERA (3.88 FIP) in 15 starts and 95 innings down in Triple-A this summer. His strikeout (6.44 K/9 and 17.6 K%), walk (2.8 BB/9 and 5.7 BB%), and homer (0.85 HR/9) rates down in Pawtucket range between okay and good. Ready to be surprised? Wright is a knuckleballer. He throws his mid-70s knuckler roughly three-fourths of the time, filling in the gaps with low-90s fastballs and mid-60s curveballs. I can’t help but wonder if those curveballs are just sloppy knuckleballs being misclassified by PitchFX. I guess we’ll find out tonight. Wright has never faced the Yankees but he did make two starts against Triple-A Scranton this year. Jose Pirela, Zelous Wheeler, John Ryan Murphy, and Austin Romine know what’s up.

Saturday: RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Joe Kelly (vs. NYY)
Kelly, 26, was the centerpiece of the John Lackey trade a few weeks back now that Craig is hitting like a pitcher. He has a 4.15 ERA (4.46 FIP) in 16 starts and 89 total inning this year, including a 4.00 ERA (4.81 FIP) in nine starts for Boston. His overall strikeout (6.37 K/9 and 16.3 K%) and walk (4.04 BB/9 and 10.4 BB%) rates stink, though he gets plenty of grounders (55.6%) and keeps the ball in the park (0.81 HR/9 and 12.9 HR/FB%). Lefties (.320 wOBA) have hit Kelly a little harder than righties (.299 wOBA). A mid-90s two-seamer is his main pitch, which he’ll use to set up low-80s changeups and upper-70s curveballs. He’ll throw a handful of mid-90s four-seamers and mid-80s sliders per start as well. Kelly held the Yankees to three runs in 6.2 innings earlier this month.

Buchholz. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)
Buchholz. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Sunday: RHP Michael Pineda (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Clay Buchholz (vs. NYY)
In the span of a few days in late-July, the 30-year-old Buchholz went from being the Red Sox’s nominal number four starter to their staff ace. He has a 5.31 ERA (4.06 FIP) in 27 starts and 164.1 innings this year, with peripherals that are decent across the board: 7.01 K/9 (18.0 K%), 2.90 BB/9 (7.4 BB%), 0.93 HR/9 (9.6 HR/FB%), and 46.4% grounders. Buchholz has been hit much harder by lefties (.357 wOBA) than righties (.306 wOBA) this season. As always, Buchholz uses low-90s two and four-seamers as well as an upper-80s cutter to set up his knockout low-80s changeup and occasionally knockout upper-70s curveball. The Yankees scored four runs (two earned) in six innings against him in April, then seven runs in five innings in August.

Bullpen Status
The Yankees broke RHP Koji Uehara (3.08 FIP) with the Chase Headley walk-off homer game a few weeks ago. He was removed from the closer role after that game and has pitch very sparingly since. RHP Edward Mujica (3.70 FIP) is now pitching the ninth inning. RHP Junichi Tazawa (2.94 FIP) is his primary setup man and LHP Tommy Layne (3.08 FIP) will see the high-leverage matchup situations.

RHP Burke Badenhop (3.10 FIP), RHP Alex Wilson (4.01 FIP), and LHP Craig Breslow (5.34 FIP) are Farrell’s other bullpen regulars. The September call-ups are RHP Matt Barnes, LHP Drake Britton, LHP Edwin Escobar, and RHP Heath Hembree. Uehara and Wilson each threw a low-stress inning last night. Head over to our Bullpen Workload page for details on the Yankees’ bullpen, then head over to Over The Monster for everything you could possibly want to know about the Red Sox.

9/22-9/25 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

(Rob Carr/Getty)
(Rob Carr/Getty)

The final homestand of the season and Derek Jeter‘s career is upon us. The season flew by, as it tends to do more and more with each passing year. The Orioles are in town for four games this week. They’re 11-4 against the Yankees this season, including 4-2 at Yankee Stadium.

What Have They Done Lately?
Baltimore lost two of three to the Red Sox at home this weekend, but they’ve already clinched the AL East title and are in full blown “rest everyone” mode. They’re 93-62 with a +116 run differential overall and are pretty much locked into having the second best record in the league. In all likelihood they will face the winner of the AL Central in the ALDS.

Offense
At 4.39 runs per game with a team 105 wRC+, the Orioles have an above-average offense that leads baseball with 202 homeruns. No other team has more than 179. OF Nick Markakis (101 wRC+) and 1B/OF Steve Pearce (162 wRC+) are both day-to-day with shoulder and wrist injuries, respectively. Neither has played for a few days now and they’ll get as much time as needed. C Matt Wieters (Tommy John) and 3B Manny Machado (knee) are both done for the year following surgeries and 1B Chris Davis is out following an amphetamines-related suspension.

Jones. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)
Jones. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

Despite all those injuries, manager Buck Showalter still has OF Adam Jones (118 wRC+) and OF Nelson Cruz (137 wRC+) in the middle of his lineup. Cruz has been sitting on 39 homers for two weeks now. It would be cool if he didn’t hit No. 40 in the Bronx. SS J.J. Hardy (93 wRC+) and waiver trade pickup OF Alejandro De Aza (96 wRC+) are among the other lineup regulars you’ll recognize. OF Delmon Young (121 wRC+) is getting more at-bats due to the injuries and ex-Yankee IF Kelly Johnson (80 wRC+) is splitting time at third with ex-Yankees farmhand UTIL Jimmy Paredes (143 wRC+ in limited time).

C Caleb Joseph (78 wRC+) and C Nick Hundley (73 wRC+) are the primary catchers with Wieters out. IF Ryan Flaherty (78 wRC+) and IF Jonathan Schoop (65 wRC+) see plenty of time all around the infield. OF David Lough (89 wRC+) has been the defense-first extra outfielder all season. C Steve Clevenger, 1B Christian Walker, and OF Quintin Berry are the extra September call-ups. The Orioles have 17 position players on the active roster right now, including Markakis and Pearce. I don’t know why, but that seemed like a lot at first glance. Normal by September standards though.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: RHP Michael Pineda (vs. BAL) vs. LHP Wei-Yin Chen (vs. NYY)
Chen, 29, has gotten better in each of his three full seasons in MLB. He has a 3.58 ERA (3.97 FIP) in 29 starts and 173.2 innings this year. His walk rate (1.66 BB/9 and 4.4 BB%) is excellent but his strikeout (6.69 K/9 and 17.9 K%), homer (1.19 HR/9 and 11.1 HR/FB%), and ground ball (40.1%) numbers don’t jump out at you. Righties (.327 wOBA) have been a better against Chen then lefties (.307 wOBA), and he’s been better on the road (.306 wOBA) than at home (.335 wOBA). Low-90s two and four-seamers set up low-80s changeups and sliders. He’ll also throw a few mid-70s curveballs per start. The Yankees have seen Chen just once this year, scoring four runs in five innings way back in April.

Tuesday: RHP Brandon McCarthy (vs. BAL) vs. TBA
Wednesday: RHP Shane Greene (vs. BAL) vs. TBA
Thursday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda (vs. BAL) vs. TBA
The Orioles are currently in the process of setting up their ALDS rotation, so they have not yet announced their starters for this series beyond Chen. RHP Bud Norris (3.62 ERA and 4.19 FIP), RHP Kevin Gausman (3.57 ERA and 3.49 FIP), and RHP Chris Tillman (3.26 ERA and 4.09 FIP) are lined up to start Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, respectively. Tillman was the team’s Opening Day starter and he’s likely to get the ball in Game One of the ALDS on October 2nd, meaning he’d have to start either Friday or Saturday this week to stay on turn. The Yankees might not see him at all this series. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (4.90 ERA and 4.74 FIP) has been banished to the bullpen but recently made a spot start and will probably make another sometime this week so the good pitchers can get lined up for the postseason. Showalter is expected to announce his rotation for the rest of the week sometime today, either before or after tonight’s game.

Britton. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)
Britton. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

Bullpen Status
Showalter’s setup man/closer combination features two lefties who can get righties out: LHP Andrew Miller (1.30 FIP) in the eighth and LHP Zach Britton (3.17 FIP) in the ninth. They’ve both been used lightly over the last week or so as the team preps for October. RHP Darren O’Day (3.35 FIP) and RHP Tommy Hunter (3.18 FIP) will also see important innings.

The rest of the bullpen regulars include RHP Brad Brach (3.64 FIP), RHP Ryan Webb (2.71 FIP), LHP T.J. McFarland (3.30 FIP), and LHP Brian Matusz (4.03 FIP). RHP Evan Meek and LHP Joe Saunders are the extra September arms. I suppose Saunders could make a spot start this week, if needed. Webb (11 pitches), Meek (18), and McFarland (12) all pitched yesterday. Check out the status of Joe Girardi‘s bullpen at our bullpen Workload page. Camden Chat is the place to go for everything you need to know about the Orioles.

9/18-9/21 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

(Otto Greule Jr/Getty)
(Otto Greule Jr/Getty)

The final homestand of the 2014 season and Derek Jeter‘s career is about to begin. The Yankees open the eight-game homestand with four games against the Blue Jays, starting tonight. I swear, it feels like I’ve had to write a Blue Jays series preview every other week this season. Anyway, the Yankees are 8-7 against Toronto this year, including 4-2 at Yankee Stadium.

What Have They Done Lately?
The Jays were just swept by the Orioles in Baltimore, allowing the O’s to clinch the team’s first AL East title since 1997. Toronto lost two of three to the Rays before that. Overall, the Yankees have Blue Jays are tied for second place in the division with identical 77-74 records. The Jays have the run differential edge +20 to -34, however. This weekend is a battle for second place. Feel the excitement.

Offense
With an average of 4.45 runs per game and a team 105 wRC+, manager John Gibbons watches over a solidly above-average offense. They are without ex-Yankees OF Melky Cabrera (125 wRC+), who broke a finger sliding into a base a week or two ago and is done for the season. 3B Brett Lawrie (101 wRC+) and IF Maicer Izturis (79 wRC+) are also done for the year with oblique and knee injuries, respectively. C Dioner Navarro (103 wRC+) is day-to-day after taking a foul tip to the face mask.

(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)
(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Even without Melky, the Blue Jays have a scary middle of the order thanks to OF Jose Bautista (155 wRC+) and 1B Edwin Encarnacion (149 wRC+). They both have 32 homers. DH Adam Lind (147 wRC+) is also having a strong year and is a nice left-handed complement to Bautista and Encarnacion. SS Jose Reyes (102 wRC+) sets the table from the leadoff spot and OF Anthony Gose (72 wRC+) has taken over as the everyday center fielder. OF Colby Rasmus (103 wRC+) is now just a bench player.

3B Danny Valencia (77 wRC+) is playing the hot corner regularly with Lawrie out. IF Juan Francisco (108 wRC+) had been platooning with him but he’s been slumping hard since about June. IF Ryan Goins (26 wRC+ in limited time) is the everyday second baseman. C Josh Thole (73 wRC+) is the starting catcher while Navarro is out. OF Kevin Pillar (71 wRC+), IF Munenori Kawasaki (81 wRC+), IF Steve Tolleson (82 wRC+) ,and OF John Mayberry Jr. (117 wRC+) are the regular bench players. C George Kottaras, 1B Dan Johnson, and OF Dalton Pompey are the September additions.

Pitching Matchups

Thursday: RHP Shane Greene (vs. TOR) vs. RHP R.A. Dickey (vs. NYY)
The 39-year-old Dickey is about to wrap up his fourth straight 200+ inning season, and he was better this year than he was during his first season with the Jays. He has a 3.84 ERA (4.31 FIP) in 31 starts and 196.2 innings with good but not great peripherals: 7.41 K/9 (19.2 K%), 3.11 BB/9 (8.1 BB%), 1.10 HR/9 (11.1 HR/FB%), and 42.7% grounders. As a knuckleballer, Dickey relies on weak contact more than anything. Righties (.325 wOBA) have been better against him than lefties (.307 wOBA) and he’s been better on the road (.308 wOBA) than at home (.327 wOBA). Dickey threw two knuckleballs with the Mets a few years ago, but he has since dropped the harder low-80s version and now sticks with the softer mid-70s version. He throws the knuckler roughly 80% of the time while filling in the gaps with low-80s show-me fastballs. The Yankees have only faced Dickey once this year, way back in early-April, in the second series of the season. He held them scoreless for 6.2 innings.

Friday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda (vs. TOR) vs. LHP Mark Buehrle (vs. NYY)
Buehrle, 35, is 12 innings away from his 14th (!) straight 200+ inning season with two starts to go. Unless they start him on three days’ rest in the season finale or something. He’s thrown at least six innings in each of his last five starts, but one short start could cause him to fall short of 200 innings. Buehrle has a 3.40 ERA (3.71 FIP) in 30 starts and 188 innings this year, plus he’s sporting his usually low strikeout (5.07 K/9 and 13.2 K%) and walk (2.06 BB/9 and 5.4 BB%) rates. His ground ball rate (43.9%) is right in line with his career norm but his homerun rate (0.67 HR/9 and 6.6 HR/FB%) is the lowest of his career. Buehrle’s platoon split is small and he has been much better on the road (.300 wOBA) than at home (.360 wOBA). As always, he works in the mid-80s with his four-seamer, two-seamer, and cutter while mixing in some upper-70s changeups and low-70s curves to keep hitters off balance. The Yankees have seen Buehrle four times this year: three runs (two earned) in six innings in mid-June, four runs in 6.2 innings in late-June, six runs in three innings in late-July, and four runs in six innings in late-August.

(Patrick Smith/Getty)
Stroman. (Patrick Smith/Getty)

Saturday: LHP Chris Capuano (vs. TOR) vs. RHP Marcus Stroman (vs. NYY)
Last time out, the 23-year-old Stroman created a ruckus when he threw a retaliation pitch behind the head of Orioles catcher Caleb Joseph. He was ejected and has since been suspended six games, but he is appealing and is expected to make this start. Stroman has made 19 starts and five relief appearances this year, pitching to a 3.80 ERA (2.99 FIP) in 120.2 innings. His strikeout rate is alright (7.46 K/9 and 20.2 K%) but his walk (2.09 BB/9 and 5.7 BB%), homer (0.52 HR/9 and 7.1 HR/FB%), and ground ball (54.7%) numbers are spectacular. He has been way better at home (.251 wOBA) than on the road (.355 wOBA) but has a negligible platoon split. The Long Island raised Stroman uses mid-90s two and four-seamers as well a low-90s cutter to set up his mid-80s slider, mid-80s changeup, and low-80s curve. The four-seamer, cutter, and curve are his main pitches. The Yankees have faced him twice this year, first scoring two runs in 3.2 innings and then scoring one run in eight innings, both times in June.

Sunday: RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. TOR) vs. RHP Drew Hutchison (vs. NYY)
Again with Hutchison. The 24-year-old will be the first non-James Shields pitcher to make six starts in one season against the Yankees since both Edwin Jackson and Roy Halladay did it in 2008. (Shields did it in 2010 and 2012.) They’ve faced him in every series this year. Geez. Hutchison has a 4.51 ERA (3.82 FIP) in 30 starts and 175.2 innings after missing just about all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. Both his walk (2.87 BB/9 and 7.5 BB%) and strikeout (8.71 K/9 and 22.9 K%) rates are very good, the homer (1.08 HR/9 and 9.3 HR/FB%) and grounder (36.7%) rates less so. He gets hit hard by lefties (.348 wOBA) and at home (.333 wOBA), though not so much by righties (.274 wOBA) and on the road (.305 wOBA). A low-90s fastball is Hutchison’s main pitch and he throws it roughly two-thirds of the time. Sliders and changeups in the mid-80s round out his repertoire. Amazingly, each of Hutchison’s five starts against New York have gotten progressively better this year: six runs in 3.1 innings in April, four runs in 4.1 innings in early-June, four runs in 6.1 innings in late-June, two runs in 6.2 innings in July, and no runs in seven innings in August. I guess a no-hitter’s coming this weekend.

Oh, and yeah, Tanaka is returning to the rotation this weekend. It will either be totally awesome or the worst thing ever. Lots riding on his right elbow.

Sanchez. (Rich Schultz/Getty)
Sanchez. (Rich Schultz/Getty)

Bullpen Status
Because they have been losing so much recently, Gibbons had to use closer RHP Casey Janssen (4.24 FIP) and setup man RHP Aaron Sanchez (2.57 FIP) yesterday just to get them work. Janssen’s had an up and down season and he’ll be a free agent this winter. I wonder what kind of contract he’ll get. Anyway, LHP Brett Cecil (2.48 FIP) and LHP Aaron Loup (3.70 FIP) are the team’s other regular late-inning relievers.

RHP Dustin McGowan (4.92 FIP) and RHP Todd Redmond (3.44 FIP) are Toronto’s other bullpen regulars. RHP Brandon Morrow (3.83 FIP) is now working in relief after missing most of the season with a finger injury. LHP Daniel Norris, LHP Sean Nolin, and RHP Kendall Graveman are the club’s September pitching call-ups. Head over to our Bullpen Workload page for the status of the Yankees’ bullpen, then head over to Drunk Jays Fans for everything you need to know about the Blue Jays.

9/15-9/17 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

(Brian Blanco/European Press)
(Brian Blanco/European Press)

It’s September, which means a heavy intra-division schedule and two series against the Rays in the span of a week. The Yankees are in Tampa to start a three-game set tonight. They’re 7-9 against the Rays this year, including 4-3 at Tropicana Field. Since their elimination number is two, the Yankees would be mathematically eliminated from the AL East race if they lose the series regardless of what the Orioles do.

What Have They Done Lately?
The Rays beat the Blue Jays in extra innings yesterday and took two of three in Toronto this weekend. They lost two of three to the Yankees in New York last week, as you may remember. Overall, Tampa Bay is 72-78 with a +4 run differential, leaving them in fourth place in the AL East and five games back of the Yankees.

Offense
Manager Joe Maddon’s offense averages 3.85 runs per game with a team 100 wRC+, which is weird. A 100 wRC+ is exactly league average but the runs per game rate is about half-a-run below average. Timing is important, I guess. OF Desmond Jennings (104 wRC+) is their only injured position player and he is done for the season with a knee problem.

Loney. (Ed Zurga/Getty)
Loney. (Ed Zurga/Getty)

As has been the case the last half-decade or so, Maddon’s lineup revolves around 2B/OF Ben Zobrist (119 wRC+) and 3B Evan Longoria (107 wRC+). Longoria is having a good year but a down year compared to his usual standards. 1B James Loney (109 wRC+) has been solid overall but the Yankees can’t seem to get him out. OF Wil Myers (83 wRC+) has been both injured and ineffective this year. OF Matt Joyce (114 wRC+) and OF Kevin Kiermaier (120 wRC+) have both been comfortably above-average.

SS Yunel Escobar (94 wRC+) plays everyday and OF Brandon Guyer (109 wRC+) platoons against lefties. C Ryan Hanigan (98 wRC+) and C Jose Molina (23 wRC+) split time behind the plate. UTIL Sean Rodriguez (100 wRC+), OF David DeJesus (131 wRC+ in limited time), and UTIL Logan Forsythe (81 wRC+) have been Maddon’s regular bench players this summer. C Curt Casali and IF Nick Franklin are the September call-ups.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: LHP Chris Capuano (vs. TB) vs. RHP Alex Colome (vs. NYY)
The Durham Bulls, Tampa’s Triple-A affiliate, was eliminated from the postseason over the weekend, and the 25-year-old Colome is one of several players who will be called up today. He has spent most of the year hurt or in Triple-A — Colome made one start and one relief appearance for the Rays earlier this year (three runs in 9.2 innings) — where he had a 3.77 ERA (3.25 FIP) in 15 starts and 86 innings. His strikeout (7.64 K/9 and 19.8 K%) and walk (3.14 BB/9 and 8.1 BB%) rates were okay and hitters were completely unable to take him deep (0.21 HR/9). Colome sits in the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball and his top secondary pitch is a mid-80s changeup. He’ll throw a handful of upper-80s cutters and low-80s curveballs per start, but the fastball/changeup combination is his bread-and-butter. Neither of Colome’s big league outings earlier this year were against the Yankees.

Tuesday: RHP Michael Pineda (vs. TB) vs. RHP Jake Odorizzi (vs. NYY)
Odorizzi, 24, has a 4.08 ERA (3.69 FIP) in 29 starts and 159 innings this year, thanks mostly to his elite strikeout rate (9.51 K/9 and 24.9 K%). His walk (3.11 BB/9 and 8.1 BB%), homer (1.08 HR/9 and 9.0 HR/FB%), and ground ball (30.7%) rates are less impressive. Righties (.314 wOBA) have had a little more success against Odorizzi than lefties (.296 wOBA), and he’s been much better at home (.248 wOBA) than on the road (.379 wOBA). Odorizzi uses a straight four-seamer right around 90 mph to set up his mid-80s slider, which is his top breaking ball. He’ll throw a handful of mid-80s changeups and big-breaking upper-60s curveballs per start. The Yankees hammered Odorizzi for six runs in 4.1 innings last week.

(Scott Iskowitz/Getty)
Odorizzi. (Scott Iskowitz/Getty)

Wednesday: RHP Brandon McCarthy (vs. TB) vs. RHP Alex Cobb (vs. NYY)
The 26-year-old Cobb has taken over as Tampa’s ace now that David Price has been traded away. He has a 2.75 ERA (3.06 FIP) in 24 starts and 147.1 innings this year — Cobb missed several weeks with an oblique strain in the first half — with very good to great strikeout (8.43 K/9 and 22.9 K%), walk (2.57 BB/9 and 7.0 BB%), homerun (0.55 HR/9 and 7.8 HR/FB%), and ground ball (56.1%) rates. Righties (.292 wOBA) have had more luck against him than lefties (.247 wOBA) because of his knockout mid-80s changeup. Cobb throws his two and four-seamers in the low-90s and he’ll also throw a bunch of low-80s curveballs. As you may remember, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Yankees last week.

Bullpen Status
Although Maddon won’t come out and admit it, LHP Jake McGee (1.71 FIP) has taken over as Tampa’s closer these last few weeks. They had been using a committee for a while. McGee blew the save yesterday, like he did last week when he served up Chris Young‘s walk-off homer. RHP Grant Balfour (4.13 FIP), RHP Brad Boxberger (2.87 FIP), and RHP Joel Peralta (3.64 FIP) all see setup innings. McGee, Balfour, and Peralta all pitched yesterday.

Middle relievers RHP Brandon Gomes (4.57 FIP) and RHP Kirby Yates (3.59 FIP) have been in the bullpen just about all summer, ditto long man LHP Cesar Ramos (4.30 FIP). LHP Jeff Beliveau, RHP Steve Geltz, and LHP C.J. Riefenhauser are the extra September arms. Gomes and Beliveau both pitched briefly yesterday. Head over to our Bullpen Workload page for the status of Joe Girardi‘s bullpen. I can’t imagine David Robertson will be available tonight and probably not tomorrow night either. The Process Report is the definitive Rays analysis on the web.

9/12-9/14 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The Yankees are still mathematically alive in the division race, but realistically the Orioles have the AL East all wrapped up at this point. They’ve lapped the field. These two teams will play four games in three days this weekend — they’re making up the August 12th rainout with a doubleheader today — and I guess it’s worth noting the O’s can officially eliminate the Yankees from the division race with a sweep. The Bombers have lost eight of eleven games to the Orioles this season, including one win in five games in Camden Yards.

What Have They Done Lately?
Baltimore was off yesterday and they swept three games from the Red Sox in Fenway Park earlier this week. They’re on a serious roll, winning four straight, seven of nine, and eleven of 14. The O’s are 86-59 with a +94 run differential, the second and fourth best marks in the league, respectively. They are ten games up on the Blue Jays and 10.5 games up on the Yankees with a little more than two weeks left in the regular season.

Offense
Manager Buck Showalter’s offense averages 4.40 runs per game with a team 104 wRC+, so they are just a bit above the league average despite leading the world with 192 home runs. No other team is within even 20 of that total. They just don’t get enough guys on base in front of the sluggers. Both C Matt Wieters (Tommy John surgery) and 3B Manny Machado (knee surgery) are done for the year, and SS J.J. Hardy (98 wRC+) is day-to-day with a back issue. He received a cortisone injection on Wednesday and I guess that means he could return at some point this weekend.

Jones. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)
Jones. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)

The Orioles lineup is built around the power bats of OF Adam Jones (117 wRC+) and OF Nelson Cruz (136 wRC+), who have hit 25 and 39 homeruns, respectively. Cruz leads baseball in dingers. 1B Chris Davis (93 wRC+) is having a rough year following last season’s 53-homer breakout. He still has 26 homers though. Davis has been playing third base with Machado out and 1B Steve Pearce (147 wRC+) is filling in at first base. We all saw Pearce doing that when he was on the Yankees a few years ago, right? Right.

OF Nick Markakis (102 wRC+) leads off and OF Alejandro De Aza (91 wRC+) was a late-August waiver pickup to add depth. 2B Jonathan Schoop (67 wRC+) has crushed the Yankees all year and IF Ryan Flaherty (72 wRC+) has been filling in at short with Hardy hurt. Ex-Yankee Kelly Johnson (82 wRC+) comes off the bench to replace Davis for defense at third base, if you can believe that. C Caleb Joseph has taken over as the everyday catcher (93 wRC+) while C Nick Hundley (82 wRC+) joins OF David Lough (78 wRC+) on the bench. C Steve Clevenger, OF Quintin Berry, and ex-Yankees farmhand UTIL Jimmy Paredes are the September call-ups.

Pitching Matchups

Game One Friday: RHP Brandon McCarthy (vs. BAL) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (vs. NYY)
The Orioles sure have taken advantage of the 23-year-old Gausman’s minor league option this year, sending him up and down numerous times to manipulate the roster and add fresh arms. He’s been their heavily used sixth starter — the O’s have been using him to regularly give their other starters extra rest — and has a 3.83 ERA (3.40 FIP) in 17 starts and 96.1 innings this summer. Outside of a stellar homerun rate (0.47 HR/9 and 5.1 HR/FB%), Gausman’s peripherals are kinda unimpressive: 6.82 K/9 (18.0 K%), 3.27 BB/9 (8.6 BB%), and 41.2% grounders. Lefties (.321 wOBA) have hit him a bit harder than righties (.296 wOBA). Gausman lives in the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball, which he throws roughly 70% of the time even as a starter. A low-to-mid-80s split-changeup hybrid is his top secondary pitch, and he’ll also throw a few low-80s sliders as well. The Yankees scored one run in five innings against Gausman back in July.

Game Two Friday: TBA vs. RHP Bud Norris (vs. NYY)
Norris, 29, has probably been Baltimore’s most consistent starter this season. He has pitched to a 3.92 ERA (4.32 FIP) in 25 starts and 147 innings with average-ish peripherals across the board: 7.10 K/9 (18.8 K%), 2.69 BB/9 (7.1 BB%), 1.10 HR/9 (11.0 HR/FB%), and 42.6% grounders. Lefties (.330) have had more success against him than righties (.313), and he’s been better at home in Camden Yards (.300 wOBA) than on the road (.341 wOBA). Norris is basically a two-pitch pitcher with two other pitches. He relies heavily on his low-90s four-seamer and mid-80s slider, throwing them roughly 80% of the time combined, but he’ll also throw a handful of mid-80s changeups and low-90s two-seamers per start. New York has seen Norris twice this year, scoring one run and then three runs, both times in five innings.

The Yankees have not yet announced their starter for the second game of today’s doubleheader, but Joe Girardi did tell Chad Jennings that Bryan Mitchell has been “informed that he’s a definite possibility.” David Huff, Esmil Rogers, Chase Whitley, Adam Warren, and Preston Claiborne can all go two innings if needed, and David Phelps is expected to be activated off the disabled list today as well. The bullpen is full of September call-ups. They’ll cobble it together one way or another.

Gonzalez. (Rob Carr/Getty)
Gonzalez. (Rob Carr/Getty)

Saturday: RHP Shane Greene (vs. BAL) vs. RHP Miguel Gonzalez (vs. NYY)
A few weeks ago it looked like Gonzalez was a candidate to be dropped from the roster, but he’s pitched exceptionally well of late (four runs allowed in his last five starts total) and is now sitting on a 3.22 ERA (4.85 FIP) in 23 starts and 142.1 innings. He also made one relief appearance. The 30-year-old is another guy without strong peripheral stats: 6.39 K/9 (16.8 K%), 2.91 BB/9 (7.6 BB%), 1.39 HR/9 (12.0 HR/FB%), and 38.0% grounders. His platoon split is pretty small. Gonzalez’s money-maker is a split-changeup hybrid that sits in the low-80s. He sets it up with low-90s fastballs and also throws a low-80s slider and mid-70s curveball. The Yankees scored three runs in six innings against Gonzalez back in April, then he held them to two runs in eight innings in July.

Sunday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda (vs. BAL) vs. RHP Chris Tillman (vs. NYY)
Tillman, 26, was the Orioles’ Opening Day starter this year, and he has a 3.36 ERA (4.09 FIP) in 31 starts and 187.2 innings. Again, his strikeout (6.38 K/9 and 16.9 K%), walk (3.02 BB/9 and 8.0 BB%), homer (0.91 HR/9 and 8.4 HR/FB%), and ground ball (40.9%) numbers do not jump out at you. His platoon split is small but he has been much more effective at home (.274 wOBA) than on the road (.324 wOBA). Low-90s four-seamers and cutters set up Tillman’s mid-80s slider, low-80s changeup, and big-breaking mid-70s curveball. He’s lost about one mile an hour off his fastball for the second straight year, but he keeps getting outs. Tillman has started against the Yankees three times this season: six shutout innings in June, three runs in 6.2 innings in July, and two runs in seven innings in August.

O'Day. (Patrick McDermott/Getty)
O’Day. (Patrick McDermott/Getty)

Bullpen Status
Showalter’s setup man/closer combination features two lefties who can actually get righties out: LHP Andrew Miller (1.48 FIP) and LHP Zach Britton (3.13 FIP). RHP Darren O’Day (3.07 FIP) will also see setup work while RHP Tommy Hunter (3.19 FIP) has been more of a sixth/seventh inning type. Baltimore was off yesterday, so everyone is relatively fresh.

RHP Brad Brach (3.59 FIP), LHP Brian Matusz (4.22 FIP), RHP Ryan Webb (2.65 FIP), and RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (4.81 FIP) are the rest of the bullpen regulars. Ubaldo was demoted to mop-up duty a few weeks ago. Yikes. LHP T.J. McFarland, RHP Evan Meek, and LHP Joe Saunders are the extra September arms. Check out the status of the Yankees bullpen at our Bullpen Workload page. Camden Chat is the plate to go for the latest and greatest on the Orioles.

Update: Chris Davis has been suspended 25 games after testing positive for an amphetamine, MLB announced. Apparently he was taking Adderall with out approval. Either way, we won’t see him this weekend or when these two team play again in a week and a half.