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ALDS Game One: Yankees @ Twins

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We’ve all been here before, haven’t we? Yeah, we have. Just last year these same two teams matched up in the American League Division Series, though the circumstances we’re quite the same. The Yankees had won the AL East by a considerable margin and were opening at home while Minnesota eked in after a Game 163 win against the Tigers, forcing them to throw rookie Brian Duensing in Game One with all of nine big league starts to his credit.

Things are slightly different this year. The Twinkies were the ones to coast in the postseason with a huge division lead while the Yanks had to sweat a little down the stretch. Ron Gardenhire’s team is much stronger this season thanks to a deeper and much improved lineup (last year they started Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, and Nick Punto in Game One), but more importantly they now have a bonafide ace. Francisco Liriano was arguably the best pitcher in the league this year, striking out 9.44 batters per nine innings while walking just 2.72 in the same time frame. He gave up nine homeruns all season (three in his last start though), all to righthanded batters. Three years out from Tommy John surgery, Liriano threw a career high 191.2 innings in 2010 and seemed to tire down the stretch (4.69 ERA, .346 wOBA against in his last ten starts). Let’s hope that trend continues today.

There are no fatigue concerns about who the Yankees are sending to the mound, and that’s CC Sabathia. Sabathia eats 191.2 inning workloads for breakfast – over the last four years he’s averaged (averaged!) over 254 innings per season, including playoffs – so as far as I’m concerned he’s just starting to get warmed up this time of year. He gave his team a win in Game One of the ALDS last year with six and two-thirds strong innings, holding the Twinkies to just one earned run while striking out eight and walking zero. CC is very important to the Yanks’ World Series hopes, but then again what ace isn’t?

Joe posted his Game One preview at FanGraphs with some sweet charts earlier today (Jack Moore did the same for the Twins), so make sure you check that out between now and first pitch. Here are your lineups…

Yankees
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Nick Swisher, RF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Robbie Cano, 2B
6. Marcus Thames, DH
7. Jorge Posada, C
8. Curtis Granderson, CF
9. Brett Gardner, LF

CC Sabathia, SP (21-7, 3.18 ERA)

Twins
1. Denard Span, SP
2. Orlando Hudson, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Delmon Young, LF
5. Jim Thome, DH
6. Michael Cuddyer, 1B
7. Jason Kubel, RF
8. Danny Valencia, 3B
9. J.J. Hardy, SS

Francisco Liriano, SP (14-10, 3.62 ERA)

First pitch is scheduled for 8:37pm ET, and the game can be seen on TBS. Enjoy.

Hello, Twins. We’ve met before, haven’t we?

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In seven hours when Francisco Liriano steps onto the mound to face Derek Jeter, another ALDS between the Yanks and the Twins will begin. These two teams are long-time first-round foes, and the Yankees, who beat the Twins last year en route to their 27th World Series championship, have never lost a playoff series to the Twins. In fact, their triumph over the Minneapolis franchise dates back to the days of the Washington Senators and even inspired a popular Broadway musical.

In recent years, the Yanks have had the Twins’ number. They faced the Twins ten times in 2009 — including the three playoff games — and won every match-up. This year, the Twins took just two of the six regular season games from the Yanks, and one of those was quite the stunner. In fact, under Ron Gardenhire, the Twins are just 16-45 against the Yankees.

This year, the season series with the Twins was a bit odd. The Yankees and Twinkies played each other six times over the span of 13 games in mid-May and then not at all throughout the rest of the season. Even though the two clubs have changed their make-up since then, let’s relive those moments of the 2010 baseball season.

Brett Gardner scores on a Mark Teixeira double. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

May 14, 2010: Yankees 8, Twins 4 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Joba Chamberlain
LP: Scott Baker
HR: Joe Mauer, Brett Gardner, Alex Rodriguez

Both the Twins and Yankees entered their first match-up of the season at 22-12, but the Yankees drew first blood. The Twins held a 4-3 lead into the 7th, but Scott Baker couldn’t nail down an out as the Yanks hung up a four-spot that inning. A.J. Burnett threw six decent innings, but just 51 of his 100 pitches were strikes. Joba Chamberlain struck out Delmon Young, Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto to nail down the win, and Mariano recorded the save. This one was, by and large, a pretty forgettable memorable game due to A-Rod’s grand slam after an intentional walk issued to Mark Teixeira. Let’s see Gardenhire pull that mistake again.

May 15, 2010: Yankees 7, Twins 1 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Andy Pettitte
LP: Francisco Liriano
HR: Mark Teixeira, Jorge Posada

The next day saw a battle of the lefties as Andy Pettitte and tonight’s Game 1 starter Francisco Liriano squared off in the Bronx. The Yanks jumped out to an early 1-0 lead in the first on three singles, but Liriano struck out the side as well. He would finish with seven strike outs and no walks, but the Yanks scored three runs on nine hits against the southpaw. The Yanks broke this one wide open when they scored four off of Jesse Crain and Ron Mahay in the 7th. Home runs by Mark Teixeira and Jorge Posada accounted for those runs, and Andy Pettitte threw six shutout innings en route to his fifth win of the year.

Mariano allowed a bases-loaded walk and a grand slam in Twins' stunner on May 16. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

May 16, 2010: Twins 6, Yankees 3 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Nick Blackburn
LP: Joba Chamberlain
SV: Jon Rauch
HR: Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel

The Yanks suffered through a lot of “worst loss of the season” games this year, but this one might just take the cake. After a strong outing from Sergio Mitre and up 3-1 in the 8th, the Yanks turned the game over to Joba Chamberlain, and things went south in a hurry. Denard Span singled, and after an Orland Hudson ground-out, Joe Mauer walked. Joba struck out Justin Morneau, but Michael Cuddyer singled to load the bases. Joe Girardi went to Mariano for a four-out save, and Rivera promptly walked Jim Thome to force in a run and allowed a grand slam to Jason Kubel. Never had Yankee Stadium been so quiet.

May 25, 2010: Yankees 1, Twins 0 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: A.J. Burnett
LP: Brian Duensing
SV: Mariano Rivera
HR: Derek Jeter

Just nine days later, these two teams went at it again, this time in brand-new Target Field. Through five innings, the Twins and Yanks were scoreless when rain halted play. The game resumed on Wednesday afternoon, and Derek Jeter, the second batter of the afternoon, hit a rare home run to left-center. That lone run would hold up as David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera finished the win for A.J. Burnett.

Delmon Young gets himself into a rundown during the Yanks' victory. (AP Photo/Andy King)

May 26, 2010: Yankees 3, Twins 2 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Andy Pettitte
LP: Jon Rauch
SV: Mariano Rivera
HR: Nick Swisher

Now, this one was a thriller. Andy Pettitte and Francisco Liriano again faced off against each other, and this time, the pitcher’s duel lived up to its billing. The Twins took an early first-inning lead when Joe Mauer singled home Denard Span, but the Yanks got one back when Kevin Russo doubled in Francisco Cervelli. A Brett Gardner triple gave the Yanks a 2-1 lead, but a Delmon Young double knotted the score at two in the 7th. With two outs in the top of the ninth and with then-closer Jon Rauch on the mound, Nick Swisher launched a home run to right field to give the Yanks a 3-2 lead that Mariano Rivera would not surrender. If Liriano and CC Sabathia — who never faced the Twins this year — are on tonight, expect a thriller like this one.

May 27, 2010: Twins 8, Yankees 2 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Nick Blackburn
LP: Javier Vazquez
HR: Jason Kubel (2)

The final match-up of the season between these two clubs was your typical Javy Vazquez/Chan Ho Park special. Javy gave up five earned runs in 5.2 innings, and Park gave up a pair while recording just one out. By the time Chad Gaudin allowed the Twins’ 8th run to score in the 8th inning, the Yanks had long since lost this one. It was just one of those days as the top of the Yanks’ order went 6 for 16 but scored just two runs.

Exploiting Minnesota’s weaknesses

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(AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

The Twins finished the regular season with the fourth best record in baseball (94-68) and on a three-plus month hot streak that saw them go 47-25 down the stretch. They did that primarily by crushing their own division and the AL West, because their 15-18 record against the AL East is hardly awe-inspiring. Like every other team they have their flaws, some more noticeable than others. Exploiting those weaknesses is going to be important for any team playing the Twins, and it just so happens that they draw the Yankees in the ALDS.

Here are two of Minnesota’s biggest drawbacks, two things that the Yankees wouldn’t have been able to take advantage of in years past because they lacked a little something called speed.

Running On Carl Pavano

Yankee fans are well aware of their team’s problem with allowing stolen bases. Jorge Posada and Frankie Cervelli hardly ever throw anyone out (just 17.3% combined), and some pitchers on the staff seem allergic to holding runners (coughA.J. Burnettcough). The Twins have a bit of a stolen base problem of their own, and it comes in the form of former Yankee Carl Pavano.

Pavano, who has always been slow to the plate, allowed 31 stolen bases in 39 opportunities this year (79.5%). Essentially one out of every seven baserunners with an opportunity to steal have at least attempted it, and most of them were successful. Joe Mauer, who threw out 42.2% of attempted basestealers from 2004-2008 is down to just 26.2% over the last two seasons. He also battled some shoulder soreness this summer, so he’s more susceptible to the stolen base than ever before. Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Derek Jeter need to take advantage in Game Two and swipe bases whenever possible.

It’s not just about stealing bases to get runners in scoring position either. Pavano is a ground ball pitcher (51.2% grounders this season) and has gotten a double play in 11.5% of his opportunities this year, so swiping some bases will help avoid those twins killings, particularly when Jeter and his league leading 65.7% ground ball rate are at the plate. Run boys run.

Jason Kubel’s Defense

(AP Photo/John Froschauer)

Justin Morneau’s injury hurt the Twins in more ways than one. Sure, replacing his .447 wOBA is basically impossible (though Jim Thome did a helluva job trying), but it also forced an unfavorable defensive shift. Michael Cuddyer stepped in as the everyday first baseman, pushing Jason Kubel into rightfield full-time. There’s a reason that 60% of Kubel’s starts in 2008 and 2009 came as a designated hitter, and that’s because the man is awful with the glove.

Over the last three seasons, his -17.5 UZR in right ranks 35th out of 39 qualified fielders (min. 1,000 innings), and that’s mostly because of an awful range score (-14.5). Kubel simply doesn’t get to all that many balls out there, and that’s a bit exacerbated by spacious Target Field. Beyond just catching the ball, his throwing is a big time liability and something the Yanks can absolutely take advantage of.

In baserunning situations such as first-to-third on a single, first-to-home on a double, second-to-home on a single, and sacrifice flies with the runner at second and/or third, Kubel’s “hold” rate is just 39.3%. The league average is close to 46%. His “kill” rate checks in at just 3.4%, well below the 6% league average. A “hold” is when he limits to the runner to just one base on a single or two on a double (so first-to-second on a single, not first-to-third, etc.), nothing more. A “kill” is when he actually threw a runner out attempting to take the extra base.

Clearly, Kubel’s arm is something guys like Gardner, Granderson, Jeter, Robbie Cano, and even Alex Rodriguez need to exploit. He’s very unlikely to throw them out trying to take the extra base, so they should push the envelope as much as possible, particularly with Francisco Liriano on the mound. They simply won’t get many opportunities to generate extended rallies against him, so they have to create offense in other ways.

It’s also worth noting that Delmon Young is equally awful in left, with a -43.3 UZR over the last three seasons (dead last among qualified fielders). His hold rate on first-to-homes on a doubles, second-to-home to singles, and sacrifice flies to score a run (it’s not often a runner goes first-to-third on a single to left, or advances from second on a sac fly) is just 38.3%, his kill rate 5.3%. Like I said earlier, run boys run.

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I know it’s hard to believe, but it’s not just the Yankees that have weaknesses heading into the playoffs. In addition to the above, the Twins are likely to be without top setup man Jon Rauch because of a knee injury (though he had it drained and claims he’s good to go), and their bullpen had the fourth worst strikeout rate in baseball this year at 6.74 K/9. If you’re going to let the Yanks put balls in play in the late innings, bad things will happen. With any luck they’ll take advantage.

Mitre, Moseley, and Golson make ALDS roster

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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

With the team on its way to Minnesota in advance of tomorrow’s ALDS opener, the Yankees have released their 25-man roster for the series. They’re carrying 11 pitchers and 14 position players, with Sergio Mitre and Dustin Moseley grabbing the final two bullpen spots. They beat out the unimpressive quartet of Javy Vazquez, Chad Gaudin, Royce Ring, and Ivan Nova, all of whom pretty much bombed their September auditions. Nova’s the only real surprise, but he didn’t exactly shine in his relief appearance on Saturday night.

We know that CC Sabathia (Game One), Andy Pettitte (Game Two), and Phil Hughes (Game Three) will be the primary starters, though A.J. Burnett’s status was a bit unclear. He made the roster and will pitch in relief, joining Joba Chamberlain, Mariano Rivera, Kerry Wood, David Robertson, Boone Logan, Mitre, and Moseley out in the bullpen. Given the scheduled off days between Games Two and Three (and Four and Five), the four core setup relievers (Joba, Wood, D-Rob, Logan) should be able to pitch almost every inning between the starters and Rivera. I’m curious to see if and how A.J. will be used, he could be a weapon if comes in and just airs it out for an inning, but does Joe Girardi trust him?

Greg Golson beat out Eduardo Nunez for a bench spot, since he offers top notch outfield defense and has no worse than equal baserunning ability. Ramiro Pena gets the nod over Nunez likely because of seniority, but it was the correct choice anyway. Neither player can hit and at least Pena can play stellar defense. Regardless, the utility infielder is going to be glued to the bench all month. The starting eight position players are clear and do not need introductions, and as expected the DH spot will be a Marcus Thames/Lance Berkman platoon. Golson, Pena, Austin Kearns, Frankie Cervelli, and the non-starting half of the DH platoon will occupy the bench.

Thames figures to get a lot of at-bats in the ALDS with lefties Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing scheduled to start two of the first three games for Minnesota, so Berkman’s going to play a big role coming off the bench as a pinch hitter in the late innings. His power appears to be pretty much gone, but he’s gotten on base 40 times in his last 100 plate appearances, which has definite value. Golson will likely get the call as the primary pinch runner since they have two outfielders on the bench and just one infielder, and he should be well equipped for the job. He’s swiped 60 bags in 73 tries over the last three years in the minors (82.2% success rate).

The Yankees are only going to go as far as their star players take them. The decision to carry Moseley over Nova, or Pena over Nunez will not determine their playoff fate. They might contribute a little something at some point, but that’s it. We’ve known who this team will rely on come playoff time all season, so for all intents and purposes the last three or four ALDS roster spots are inconsequential.

Burnett out as Yanks set ALDS rotation

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Updated (1:07 p.m.): This news shouldn’t come as much surprise to Yankee fans, but George A. King of The Post reported this morning that the A.J. Burnett will not be in the ALDS rotation. Instead, as the Yankees just announced via Twitter, CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes will make up their rotation for the best-of-five game set against the Twins. Sabathia will take the ball in Games 1 and 4 on short rest while Pettitte will pitch Games 2 and 5 on full rest and Hughes will go on Saturday nigh at Yankee Stadium.

The decision to sit A.J. is a no-brainer for the Yanks as Burnett showed little ability to command his pitches or get outs consistently during the second half of the season, but the move to start Hughes at home might raise an eyebrow or two. Hughes’ home/road splits are extreme, and the young right-hander had a road ERA 1.35 runs lower than his home mark while giving up 0.6 HR/9 IP on the road against a 1.7 mark at home. I have no problem, however, with Pettitte’s taking the ball for a potential Game 5 either. The Yanks have not yet said if Burnett will be on the ALDS roster.

As an addendum, Major League Baseball also announced the umpire crew for the Yanks’ set against the Twins. We’ll have Jerry Crawford, Hunter Wendelstedt, Greg Gibson, Brian O’Nora, Gary Darling and Chris Guccione for the ALDS. That crew seems to feature no one too awful as an umpire. Additionally, Major League Baseball announced that Game 4 will start at 8:07 p.m. ET on Sunday and Game 5 will start at either 8:37 p.m. on Tuesday or 8:07 p.m. ET if the Tampa Bay/Texas series is over.

Do the Yankees need Burnett at all in the ALDS?

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(AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

As you surely know by now, the ALDS schedule lines up in a way that allows the Yankees to use just three starters, the same formula that helped bring home World Championship #27 last year. CC Sabathia gets the Ball in Game One and then again in Game Four on short rest, with Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes taking Games Two, Three, and Five (on regular rest) in some undetermined order. That leaves A.J. Burnett in a precarious position, and the best solution might be to leave him off the ALDS roster all together.

A fourth starter isn’t necessary obviously, and the Yanks will carry presumably at least one long man from a group that includes Dustin Moseley, Ivan Nova, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre (Javy Vazquez isn’t even an option, sadly). If Burnett were to be included on the playoff roster, you’ve basically got a guy that won’t be needed to start or even be used in relief since the setup crew of Kerry Wood, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, and Boone Logan figure to do as much of the heavy lifting between the starter and Mariano Rivera as humanly possible. Yeah, there’s always the possibility of extra innings or blowouts, but that’s what the guys in the first sentence are for.

It comes down to what is more useful for the Yanks against the Twins, Burnett or a more strategic reliever like Royce Ring, a second lefty for Minnesota’s lefty heavy lineup. Granted, we’re not debating between filet mignon and lobster here, it’s more like we’re on line in the McDonald’s drive-thru trying to pick stuff off the dollar menu. Chances are it’ll all make you just as sick in the end, kinda like A.J. and Ring.

Seriously though, Ring hasn’t been very impressive over the last several weeks, retiring just five of the nine lefties he was brought in to face. It was a brief but underwhelming audition, yet with Damaso Marte’s injury* he’s the best option for a second bullpen lefty. Both Jim Thome (.477 wOBA vs. .334) and Jason Kubel (.341 wOBA vs. .297) have considerable platoon splits, so perhaps it’s worth it to have that second matchup lefty for low-leverage work even if it’s a five-piece nuggets like Ring. Sometimes the low arm slot alone is enough to throw a batter off.

It’s entirely possible that we’re overthinking things here. Considering his sheer velocity, the best option might be to just carry Burnett and let him air it out one relief inning at a time. There’s no holding back, he wouldn’t have to worry about getting through the order two or three times. It could be one of the most electric things we’ll ever see on a baseball field, or it could blow up in everyone’s face.

I’ve never been a fan of carrying a lefty reliever just because he was a lefty reliever, I’d rather take the X best pitchers regardless of handedness, but in a short series there’s a definite tactical advantage. The tenth and eleventh arms on the staff aren’t likely to see much action in a short series because of all the off days anyway, not unless something goes horribly wrong or wonderfully right, but in the off chance that one is needed, another southpaw against a lineup like that could be mighty handy.

Aside: Seriously, how awesome would it be to have both Logan and Marte in the pen in this or any other series? For shame.