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The Continually Improving Aaron Hicks [2018 Season Review]

November 1, 2018 by Mike

Three years ago the Yankees and Twins made an old fashioned one-for-one baseball trade that created a lot of buzz within the game because, well, it was an old fashioned baseball trade. It wasn’t a salary dump, it wasn’t a rebuilding team hoarding prospects, it wasn’t a rental being moved at the deadline. It was a baseball deal. My guy for your guy. Talent for talent. John Ryan Murphy for Aaron Hicks.

The Yankees have since emerged as the clear winner in the trade. Murphy didn’t work out in Minnesota and, after a hot start to the season, he limped to the finish with the Diamondbacks this year. Hicks, meanwhile, stumbled in 2016 before cementing himself as one of the most productive outfielders in the game the last two seasons. Eighty-seven outfielders batted at least 800 times the last two years. Hicksie’s ranksies:

AVG: .255 (55th)
OBP: .368 (11th)
SLG: .470 (33rd)
wRC+: 127 (18th)
HR: 42 (32nd)
BB%: 15.0% (4th)
Baserunning runs: +9.6 (10th)
WAR: +8.2 (12th)

Hicks had 942 plate appearances from 2017-18. Rhys Hoskins is next at +5.1 WAR among outfielders with fewer than 1,000 plate appearance the last two years. The batting average is a little lower than you’d like, but everything else is pretty good, especially since Hicks is a center fielder putting up corner outfielder numbers.

Nagging injuries have slowed Hicks the last two years — last season it was a pair of oblique issues, this year it was an intercostal and hamstring trouble — but he still finished this season at .248/.366/.467 (127 wRC+) with a career high 27 home runs. Hicks also posted better than league average strikeout (19.1%) and walk (15.5%) rates, ran the bases well (+7.0 BsR), and played strong center field defense. He’s become the player prospect experts believed he could be.

During his three years in pinstripes Hicks has gone from reclamation project to unproductive fourth outfielder to starting center fielder to key contributor. Ninety-nine times he batted 1-2-3-4-5 in the lineup somewhere, including batting third in his first two postseason starts before the hamstring acted up. Hicks still seems a little underappreciated to me, but that doesn’t matter. The Yankees know how good he is. Let’s review his 2018 season.

The Great Plate Discipline

Coming up through the minors Hicks was always known for his plate discipline. I mean, the tools and athleticism stood out the most, but his military style plate discipline led to a 14.4% walk rate in the minors. It was patience bordering on passivity. Sometimes Hicks let hittable pitches go by and that’s taking plate discipline too far. It’s okay to jump on that fastball over the plate early in the count, you know? The 2018 chase rate leaderboard:

Joey Votto: 17.2%
Andrew McCutchen: 17.8%
Alex Bregman: 18.1%
Mookie Betts: 18.5%
Aaron Hicks: 19.4%

Only four of the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title swung at pitches out of zone at a lower rate than Hicks. Also, among the players with the 17 lowest chase rates, Hicks had the highest rate of swinging at pitches in the zone at 62.8%. He’s found the sweet spot. He’s laying off pitches out of the zone but also hunting and attacking those hittable pitches in the zone.

Here, for no good reason whatsoever, are two heat maps. On the left are Miguel Andujar’s swings. On the right are Aaron Hicks’ swings. Check out the difference:

Heh. This isn’t intended to be a knock on Andujar. He’s awesome. He swings at everything (39.3% chase rate and 70.0% in-zone swing rate) and it works for him because has that innate ability to get the fat part of the bat on the ball. Hicks’ swings are much more concentrated on pitches out over the middle of the plate. He and Andujar are very different hitters, yet they still provided the same offensive value this year (128 wRC+ and 127 wRC+). Pretty neat.

Anyway, offensively, it all starts with plate discipline for Hicks. He consistently works long at-bats and puts himself in good hitters counts, and now he’s driving the ball with more authority than ever. His 39.5% hard hit rate this year was far and away a career high. His 40.0% ground ball rate this year was also a career low. I mean:

2016: 28.9% hard contact and 45.6% grounders
2017: 30.8% hard contact and 44.1% grounders
2018: 39.5% hard contact and 40.0% grounders

A good trend, that is. Those career high 27 home runs — Hicks’ previous career high was 15 homers last year — weren’t a fluke. Hicks hit the ball hard and he hit the ball in the air more than ever before, and that put him in position to not only sock long dingers, but also take advantage of the short porch.

The Possibly Good, Possible Mediocre Defense

To the eye test, Hicks is a very good defensive center fielder in my opinion. It seems like he glides to balls in the gaps. There have definitely been some issues on balls hit right over his head, but everyone seems to have trouble with those, so I can’t crush Hicks for it. Add in his arm and, to me, Hicks is real good in center field.

The numbers say otherwise. Defensive Runs Saved say Hicks went from +12 runs in 440.2 innings in center field last year to … -3 runs in 1,138.1 innings in center this year? Really? Ultimate Zone Rating says he went from +5.0 to -0.2. UZR puts it all on his range too. The UZR breakdown say Hicks’ arm and ability to avoid errors held steady from 2017 to 2018. But his range component went from +4.4 last year to -0.8 this year.

Among the many Statcast tools that exists but is hard to find is directional outs above average. It tells us how good an outfielder is at making plays in each direction, meaning going to his left, going to his right, coming in on the ball, going back, etc. Here is Hicks in 2017 and 2018:

Just to be clear, the center fielder is the dot in the middle. The bottom pie slice is coming in on the ball and the top pie slice is going back. Left and right is going to the left and right. The only difference between 2017 Hicks and 2018 Hicks is going to his right (left field). He was a run better than average going to his right last year and multiple runs below average going to his right this year. Hmmm.

I’m not really sure what’s going on here. Perhaps it’s nothing more than sample size noise since defensive stats usually need a few seasons worth of data to become reliable? Or maybe it had to do with positioning and the way the Yankees shaded Hicks in center? Or maybe he lost a step — the hamstring injuries may explain that — but only when going to his right? I dunno.

Whatever it is, the numbers say Hicks went from comfortably above average in the field last year to about average if not a touch below this year. He turned 29 earlier this month, so between his age and overall ability, I’m not convinced the defensive decline is permanent. It might be, for sure. But defensive stats can fluctuate year-to-year the same way batting average can, and I’d bet on the defensive numbers liking Hicks more in 2019 than they did in 2018.

Aaron’s Cool Baseball Things

In addition to being a strong two-way player who switch-hits and has power and patience from both sides of the plate, Hicks did some very fun baseball things this year. Much more than any other Yankee, I think. Let’s review them chronologically.

April 13th vs. Tigers: In his third game of the season — remember, he missed some time early with an intercostal injury — Hicks managed to hit both an inside-the-park home run and an outside-the-park home run. They were his first two homers of the season. Check it out:

Hicks hit the Yankees’ first inside-the-park home run since Curtis Granderson in 2011 and he’s the first Yankee with an inside-the-park/outside-the-park two-homer game since Hank Bauer in 1956. He was the first player with an inside-the-park/outside-the-park two-homer game since Nick Castellanos, who, coincidentally enough, did it against the Yankees last year.

Because one inside-the-park home run wasn’t enough, Hicks hit another one on May 19th against the Royals. He’s the first Yankee with multiple inside-the-park homers in a single season since Mickey Mantle had three in 1953.

July 1st vs. Red Sox: On the morning of July 1st the Yankees were one game up on the Red Sox in the AL East. That night they clobbered David Price for eight runs and five home runs in 3.1 innings. They hit six home runs in the game overall. Hicksie had three of them.

Hicks went deep from both sides of the plate and hit the first home run the other way, the second to dead center, and the third to the pull field. Both sides of the plate and to all fields. Hicks also became the first Yankee with a three-homer game since Alex Rodriguez in 2015 and the third Yankee with a three-homer game against the Red Sox, joining Lou Gehrig (1927) and Mark Teixeira (2010). Now that is pretty cool.

July 26th vs. Royals: An otherwise nondescript win over the Royals had a very exciting ending. Hicks threw Alex Gordon out at the plate to the end game for a walk-off outfield assist. Check it out:

No, the situation was not dire (the Yankees were up by five), and yes, the Royals made it easy (Gordon ran through the stop sign), but still, you’ve got to execute the throw, and Hicks did. Besides, since when does throwing someone out at the plate need to be difficult or dramatic to be fun? What a neat way to end a ballgame.

September 22nd vs. Orioles: The Yankees stumbled through much of the second half this year, and while they were never really in danger of losing a postseason spot, homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game did get a little dicey at times. The Yankees officially clinched a postseason spot on September 22nd and they did it in one of the coolest ways possible. Hicks walked it off in the 11th inning. To the action footage:

As best I can tell, that was the first time the Yankees clinched a postseason spot on a walk-off hit since Alfonso Soriano’s first career big league hit was an AL East clinching walk-off homer in 1999. Either way, that’s still pretty awesome. A walk-off hit to punch your ticket to the postseason is as fun as it gets.

What’s Next?

The 2019 season will be an important one for Hicks, personally. It’s his final year of team control (projected $6.2M salary) and another strong season sets him up for a considerable free agent payday. Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) are the contract benchmarks here, and, when he hits free agency, Hicks will be one year younger than Fowler and two years younger than Cain at the time of their free agencies.

It’s unclear whether the Yankees will pursue a long-term extension with Hicks this offseason — doing so would raise his luxury tax hit considerably next year and who knows what the team’s plans are financially — but it sure seems like something that should happen. Switch-hitting center fielders with power and patience and good defense aren’t easy to find, and it’s not like the Yankees have a center field replacement in the pipeline. (Estevan Florial is still a few years away.)

Extension or no extension, I have a hard time believing the Yankees would trade Hicks this winter, so he’s all but assured of starting next season in pinstripes. And, with Didi Gregorius out indefinitely, there’s a pretty good chance Hicks will be the Opening Day No. 3 hitter to split up the two big righties in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees gambled on Hicksie’s tools and upside three years ago and have been rewarded handsomely.

Reviewing RAB’s five bold predictions for the 2018 season

October 22, 2018 by Mike

About two weeks ago the 2018 season came to an end for the Yankees, about four weeks too early. The Yankees were bounced in four games in the ALDS and the season feels like a disappointment. At least to me it does. Last year the Yankees went to Game Seven of the ALCS, and although they lost, it was still fun as hell. That was not really the case year.

Anyway, now that the season is over, it is time to go back and review my five bold predictions for the 2018 Yankees. Spoiler alert: I went 0-for-5. Last year I went 7-for-10 and that told me I didn’t go bold enough. I tried to rectify that this year and I guess it worked? Perhaps I’ll actually get one right next year. Time to review this year’s five bold predictions to see where I went wrong.

1. Hicks will lead the Yankees in WAR.

Among this year’s bold predictions, this is the one that was closest to coming true. For all the wrong reasons, of course. Aaron Hicks had a tremendous 2018 season but the only reasons he came close to leading the Yankees in WAR are Aaron Judge’s wrist injury and Luis Severino’s second half fade. An errant pitch broke Judge’s wrist in late-July and kept him out to mid-September. Severino was pretty bad after the All-Star break. That allowed Hicks to draw close.

I tend to stick with the two most popular version of WAR but there is a third out there. Here’s the top five Yankees in each version:

FanGraphs WAR
1. Aaron Judge: +5.5
2. Luis Severino: +4.8
3. Aaron Hicks: +4.7
4. Didi Gregorius: +4.2
5. Giancarlo Stanton: +4.0

Baseball Prospectus WARP
1. Luis Severino: +5.6
2. Aaron Judge: +4.7
3. Didi Gregorius: +4.2
4. Gleyber Torres: +3.2
5. Aaron Hicks: +2.9

Baseball Reference WAR
1. Luis Severino: +5.7
2. Aaron Judge: +5.0
3. Aaron Hicks: +4.9
4. Didi Gregorius: +4.6
5. Giancarlo Stanton: +4.2

I am not a big fan of BP WARP but I figured I’d throw it in there anyway. Hicks being the third best player on the Yankees — and second best position player — this past season matches the eye test, I believe. He hit .248/.366/.467 (127 wRC+) with 27 homers, eleven steals, an excellent walk rate (15.5%), and a better than average strikeout rate (19.1%). Add in quality center field defense and you’ve got a +5 WAR player.

Unfortunately for me and my bold prediction (but fortunately for the Yankees and Yankees fans), Judge is a true talent +7 WAR player, so he still finished ahead of Hicks even with all that missed time. Severino finished ahead of Hicks as well thanks largely to his dominant first year. Great year for Hicks. Not great enough to lead the Yankees in WAR. (That’s a good thing!)

2. The Yankees will be the first team ever with four 40+ home run hitters.

Nope. The Yankees instead became the umpteenth team in history with zero 40+ home runs hitters. Stanton led the Yankees with 38 home runs. Gregorius, Hicks, Judge, and Miguel Andujar tied for second with 27 homers apiece. The Yankees did set a new single-season record with 267 homers this season. They did it without that one guy having a monster season though.

I specifically mentioned Judge, Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird as the 40-homer hitters in the bold predictions post. Here’s what happened:

Bird: Hurt (again) and awful. He played in 82 games and hit only eleven homers.
Judge: Probably would’ve hit 40 homers if not for the wrist injury. Twenty-seven homers in 112 games is a 39-homer pace, and remember, he stunk when he first returned from the disabled list.
Sanchez: Missed two months with groin injuries and, even when healthy, he wasn’t good.
Stanton: Hit 38 homers. Just short of 40. He was really good this year.

The Judge and Sanchez injuries were unfortunate. It happens. There are two big reasons this bold prediction was derailed. One, Sanchez was just terrible. Who saw that coming? My dude missed most of April and still hit .278/.345/.531 (129 wRC+) with 33 homers last year. Rather than build on that, Gary took a massive step back. And two, I foolishly believed this would be the year Bird stayed healthy. Never again.

3. The Yankees will have four starters each make 30+ starts.

Nope. The Yankees had one starter make 30 starts this season (Severino made 32). CC Sabathia made 29 starts and would’ve made 30+ had he not missed two weeks with a hip issue in April or eleven days with knee trouble in August. Masahiro Tanaka made only 27 starts because he managed to strain both hamstrings at the same time while running the bases in June. Good grief. That sent him to the sidelines for a month.

Only one other Yankee made as many as 23 starts this season. That Yankee: Sonny Gray. Gray made 23 starts and had to be pulled from the rotation because he was so awful. I didn’t expect that to happen. Opening Day fifth starter Jordan Montgomery made only six starts before his elbow gave out and he needed Tommy John surgery. Know who finished fifth on the 2018 Yankees in starts? Domingo German with 14. Yeesh.

4. Cessa emerges as the next great Yankees reliever.

I called this with Chad Green last year and it worked beautifully. I tried it again this year with the other half of the Justin Wilson trade and it didn’t work out so well. I guess Jonathan Holder was this year’s breakout reliever? Yeah, has to be. Anyway, here was my logic behind the Cessa prediction:

There are three reasons I believe Cessa can succeed as a short reliever. One, he has plenty of velocity. Last season he averaged 95.4 mph and topped out at 99.5 mph with the fastball, even as a starter. Two, his slider misses plenty of bats. It’s true. Last year he threw his slider a touch more than 30% of the time and:

Swing-and-miss rate: 21.4% (MLB average for sliders: 16.9%)

Whiffs-per-swing rate: 43.2% (MLB average for sliders: 35.2%)

Cessa also throws a curveball and a changeup, but with a move into short relief, he can forget about those pitches and work exclusively with an upper-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. That’s similar to what Green did, right? He moved to the bullpen, shelved his subpar secondary pitches, and leaned on his best offering, which happens to be his fastball. Cessa with something like a 55/45 fastball/slider split could be real good.

Cessa never really got a look as short reliever this year. He made two one-inning relief appearances in April, during which he struck out three of the six batters he faced, otherwise he was used as a spot starter and swingman. Cessa made five spot starts and nine relief appearances of at least two innings. The Yankees never bothered to give him a look as a one-inning “air it out reliever” aside from those two appearances in April.

In 44.2 total innings this past season Cessa finished with a 5.24 ERA (3.74 FIP) and good enough strikeout (20.0%) and walk (6.7%) rates. The fastball velocity was still good (95.0 mph average and 97.9 mph max) and the slider still missed bats (18.6% swings-and-misses and 38.3% whiffs-per-swing). Shrug. Cessa will be out of minor league options next year, and if he doesn’t stick with the Yankees, I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns into a nice one-inning reliever elsewhere. The tools are there. He seems miscast as a starter but the Yankees have stuck with him in that role.

5. Medina finishes the season as a top 50 prospect.

This was my most “out there” bold prediction. It’s not often a 19-year-old pitcher jumps into the top half of a global top 100 list. Medina has dynamite stuff. He’s upper-90s with his fastball and he’s hit triple digits several times, his curveball is a hammer, and his changeup is sneaky good as well. I didn’t pick him out of the hat. Medina has the stuff to develop into a top 50 prospect. I aggressively said it would happen this year. I was wrong.

In 36 innings for the rookie level Pulaski Yankees, Medina pitched to a 6.25 ERA (6.46 FIP) with 25.5% strikeouts and 25.0% walks. That’s 47 strikeouts and 46 walks in 36 innings. Among the 3,014 pitchers to throw at least 30 innings in the minors this season, Medina had the sixth highest walk rate and 83rd lowest K-BB%. Medina also hit two batters and uncorked 12 wild pitches in those 36 innings. Yikes.

Even with that statistically terrible season Medina remains a very good prospect because he is only 19 and because you can’t teach his stuff. It’s electric. Baseball America (subs. req’d) recently ranked Medina as the 13th best prospect in the Appalachian League. A snippet of their scouting report:

What keeps scouts interested with Medina is a fastball that sits in the 95-96 mph range and touches 100, with impressive plane and sink. He’s also got a 60-grade curveball and a changeup that could become a third plus pitch as well. He’s still growing into a 6-foot-1, 175 pound frame, Medina has a good arm action but simply struggles to repeat his delivery with any kind of consistency and is just an average athlete.

This failed bold prediction is nothing more than a bet on a talented yet unpolished 19-year-old pitching prospect gone wrong. It happens. Medina definitely has a little Dellin Betances in him and by that I mean 19-year-old Dellin Betances. Betances was a starter with drool-worthy stuff at the same age and it wasn’t until his age 26 season that he figured it out for good and stuck in the big leagues. Medina is a similar long-term project. He may one day be a top 50 prospect, but it won’t be today.

The Yankees have their priciest arbitration class in years this offseason and some big decisions are required

October 16, 2018 by Mike

Given the roster situation and contention window, the Yankees figure to be very active this winter. The team is ready to win now but they need help, particularly in the rotation, but also elsewhere on the roster. The injured Didi Gregorius has to be replaced, as do impending free agents David Robertson and Zach Britton, among others. These next few months should be busy.

The Yankees already have their core in place — they need to supplement this offseason more than overhaul — and they’re going to spend at least part of the offseason keeping that core in place. Guys like Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez are still in their pre-arbitration years and will make something close to the league minimum next year. Others like Gregorius and Luis Severino are arbitration-eligible and will cost a bit more.

Last week Matt Swartz released his 2019 salary arbitration projections at MLB Trade Rumors. There are always exceptions, but Matt’s system is very accurate overall. These aren’t “in the ballpark” numbers. These tend to be close to dead on. Here is the Yanks’ arbitration class and their projected 2019 salaries:

Didi Gregorius: $12.4M (fourth time eligible as a Super Two)
Sonny Gray: $9.1M (third time)
Dellin Betances: $6.4M (third time)
Aaron Hicks: $6.2M (third time)
Luis Severino: $5.1M (first time as a Super Two)
Austin Romine: $2.0M (third time)
Tommy Kahnle: $1.5M (second time as a Super Two)
Greg Bird: $1.5M (first time)
Ronald Torreyes: $900K (first time as a Super Two)

The nine-person arbitration class projects to cost the Yankees a whopping $45.1M in 2019. Goodness. Last year’s arbitration class ran $29.2525M even when including Adam Warren’s full salary. The Yankees have about $55M in free agents coming off the books this winter. Going from a $29.2525M arbitration class last year to a $45.1M arbitration class this year eats up about $15M of that $55M. Hmmm. Anyway, let’s talk about the arbitration class a bit.

1. What happens with Gregorius? Sir Didi needs Tommy John surgery and I have to think that means the Yankees will not pursue a long-term contract extension, if they were even planning to pursue one in the first place. Don’t you have to wait and see what Gregorius looks like post-surgery before committing? I mean, he’ll probably be fine, but you never really know. It’s a major surgery.

As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t think the Yankees will non-tender Gregorius, but I don’t think it would be as egregious as it may seem. He might not be back until August or September. Is it really smart to commit $12.4M to a guy who may not help you much, if at all, when he’ll become a free agent next winter? That’s a lot of money to give to a guy who is going to spend most of the year rehabbing. The potential reward isn’t all that great.

Perhaps there’s a compromise to be made here? Rather than a one-year contract at the projected arbitration salary, the Yankees and Gregorius could work out a two-year agreement? Something like, say, two years and $25M? Or maybe even $30M? That ensures two things:

The Yankees won’t pay Gregorius a hefty sum during his injury shortened 2019 season only to possibly lose him to free agency next winter.
Gregorius gets a nice little guaranteed payday and will still be able to become a free agent prior to his age 30 season, when he’ll still have good earning potential.

The Gregorius injury is really unfortunate. He’s a great player who proved difficult to replace during his short time on the disabled list this past season. The injury also complicates his contract situation for next year. Maybe the Yankees will fork over that projected $12.4M contract for the season then worry about Didi’s free agency next winter. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

2. Gray’s salary is higher than I expected. I didn’t expect Gray’s salary projection to come in north of $9M. He made $6.5M this season and was terrible. His past accomplishments (2015 All-Star, third in the 2015 AL Cy Young voting, etc.) are doing the heavy lifting here. No player has ever had his salary cut during arbitration and Sonny sure as heck won’t be the first. I thought maybe he’d get $8M to $8.5M. I underestimated.

Brian Cashman was very open about trading Gray during last week’s end-of-season press conference. I can’t remember him ever being that candid about trading a player. Here’s what Cashman said, via Brendan Kuty:

“I think it’s probably best to try this somewhere else,” Cashman said. “It hasn’t worked out this far. I think he’s extremely talented. I think that we’ll enter the winter unfortunately open minded to a relocation. Probably to maximize his abilities would be more likely best somewhere else. But then it comes down to the final decision of the price in terms of trade acquisition and matching up with somebody, if we match up.”

I don’t think Cashman would’ve said that unless he was confident he could find a trade match for Gray and get something decent in return. The Yankees very clearly want to get rid of him. It doesn’t mean they’ll give him away. Pitching is in demand and hey, if you were another team, wouldn’t you have interest in buying low on Gray? I think there will be enough of a market that the Yankees get something good in return. Not great, but good.

Now, that said, if the Yankees have trouble finding a trade partner for Gray, would they consider non-tendering him? I don’t think so, but it’s not impossible. Worst case scenario is you take Sonny into Spring Training and essentially audition him for teams. Some team is going to suffer an injury and need a starter. That team might be the Yankees! But yeah, Gray’s a goner. His projected salary is higher than expected but I don’t think it’ll be an obstacle during trade talks.

3. Time to talk extension with Betances? Next season is Dellin’s final season of team control. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Historically, players who sign extensions the year before free agency get free agent contracts. There’s no discount. I don’t think Betances would get Wade Davis money (three years, $52M), but Bryan Shaw money (three years, $27M) ain’t cutting it. I could see Dellin’s camp pushing for four years and $44M or so next year.

Betances is an all-time personal fave and he had a tremendous bounceback season this year. He went from completely unusable in the postseason last year to being the team’s No. 1 bullpen weapon this postseason. There were a lot of folks (a lot of folks) who wanted Betances traded last offseason. Fortunately the Yankees kept him. That said, there are some reasons the Yankees should pass on an extension this offseason.

Betances turns 31 in March and his free agent contract begins during his age 32 season. Dellin’s not that young anymore! He’s almost certainly had his best years already.
As we know, Betances is extremely volatile. When he’s good, he’s unhittable. It’s so fun. When he’s bad, he’s unusable. What if it goes bad again in 2019? I hope it doesn’t happen, but it might.
Dellin does have an injury history. He’s been very durable as the big leaguer, so he deserves credit for that, but he has Tommy John surgery in his past and also shoulder issues while in the minors.

As much as I love Betances and hope he gets to record the final out of the World Series for the Yankees one day, I wouldn’t blame the Yankees one bit for not signing him long-term this offseason. Relievers are inherently volatile and Betances is more volatile than most. They have him for another season and that means another year of gathering information. If he’s willing to take a sweetheart deal, then by all means, sign him. Otherwise I think waiting is the right move.

4. Time to talk extension with Hicks? Yes, I think so. Switch-hitting center fielders who provide big value on both sides of the ball are worth keeping. Hicks turned 29 only two weeks ago, so he has several peak years remaining, and I want him to spend those peak years in pinstripes. Both versions of WAR had Hicksie as a top seven outfielder in baseball this season. Dude’s legit.

Hicks will be a free agent next offseason and, as noted earlier, players who sign extensions at this service time level usually get free agent contracts. There’s no more discount. The contract comparables for Hicks are pretty straightforward. He figures to seek Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) money. And you know what? I’d give it to him. That’s the going rate for a comfortably above-average center fielder.

It’s important to note here that a five-year contract would cover Hicks’ age 29-33 seasons. He’s younger now than Fowler (age 31-35) and Cain (age 32-36) were when they signed their deals. Hicks is younger but he also doesn’t have as long a track record, which kinda balances things out. If the Yankees give Hicks a five-year deal this winter, they avoid all those nasty decline years in his mid-to-late 30s, at least in theory. This should be a thing they pursue this winter.

5. Severino’s cheapest years are over. The Baby Bombers are growing up. Severino is arbitration-eligible for the first of four times as a Super Two this season. He has two years and 170 days* of service time, which is well over whatever the Super Two cutoff will be this winter. (It varies year to year and is usually somewhere around two years and 120 days.) Severino’s first big payday has arrived.

* The MLB season runs 186 days but it only takes 172 days to qualify for a full season’s worth of service time. That means, come the 2022-23 offseason, Severino will be *two days* short of qualifying for free agency. Ouch. He spent juuust enough time in Triple-A in 2016 to push his free agency back and I doubt that was a coincidence.

The salary record for a first time arbitration-eligible pitcher belongs to Dallas Keuchel, who received $7.25M for the 2016 season, the year after he won his Cy Young award. Severino doesn’t have a Cy Young but he didn’t finish third in the voting last year, which will boost his earning potential. Within the last three offseasons five starting pitchers went through arbitration for the first time as a Super Two. Their salaries:

Kevin Gausman, 2016-17: $3.45M
Marcus Stroman, 2016-17: $3.4M
Chase Anderson, 2016-17: $2.45M
Taijuan Walker, 2016-17: $2.25M
Mike Foltynewicz, 2017-18: $2.2M

Severino’s been better than all those dudes and, frankly, it’s not all that close either. His first year salary is considerably higher than theirs, as it should be. Using the $5.1M projection as a starting point, Severino’s salaries during his arbitration years could go something like $5.1M, $10M, $15M, $20M. More high finishes in the Cy Young voting will equal more money.

Should the Yankees sign Severino to an extension this winter? Eh, I don’t see the need to rush into it. The Yankees can of course afford big arbitration salaries and pitchers are known to break down. It sucks, but it happens. We spent a few years here saying the Yankees should sign Chien-Ming Wang long-term, they didn’t, then he broke down. Baseball can be cruel like that. I am totally cool waiting at least one more year before discussing a Severino extension. Free agency is still a ways away.

* * *

Even subtracting out the likely to be traded Gray, the Yankees have a very expensive arbitration class this offseason. Their most expensive in years. That tends to happen when you have a lot of good young players. The Yankees will have to make some big decisions with this year’s arbitration class too. Do they approach Gregorius, Hicks, or Betances about extensions the year before free agency? Or just let the year play out? There’s a case to be made for both approaches.

2018 ALDS Game Three: Red Sox at Yankees

October 8, 2018 by Mike

Welcome to the best-of-three ALDS. The Yankees and Red Sox split the first two games of the series at Fenway Park — a good outcome for the Yankees, for sure — and now the series shifts to the Bronx for Game Three. It’s very simple: Win two games at home and set up an ALCS rematch against the obnoxiously good Astros.

Since the start of last postseason the Yankees are a perfect 7-0 in Yankee Stadium in the postseason and have outscored their opponents 42-14. 42-14! They’re built for their home ballpark. No doubt. The Yankee Stadium crowd is also the tenth man. The crowd’s been dynamite the last two postseasons and I think it’ll be even louder tonight.

“I think it’s going to be amazing. I really do,” said Aaron Boone yesterday about tonight’s crowd. “I think the connection that our fan base and our fans now have with our players is a special one … I thought the atmosphere against the A’s was special. I think there’s a potential that it could be even more so tomorrow night.”

The Yankees will start Luis Severino tonight and he pitched well in the Wild Card Game, though he only got through four innings plus two batters. Some more length would be nice tonight, but, as far as I’m concerned, the important thing is quality of the innings, not the quantity of the innings. Especially with the bullpen the Yankees have.

If you’re into projections and probabilities and all that, ZiPS has the Yankees as the slight favorite to win the series (53.6% vs. 46.4%) and a slighter favorite to win tonight (51.3% vs. 48.7%). Both these teams are so good, man. It’s hard for me to look at this series as anything other than a coin flip. The lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Luke Voit
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. SS Didi Gregorius
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. 2B Gleyber Torres
9. CF Brett Gardner

RHP Luis Severino

Boston Red Sox
1. RF Mookie Betts
2. LF Andrew Benintendi
3. DH J.D. Martinez
4. SS Xander Bogaerts
5. 3B Rafael Devers
6. 1B Steve Pearce
7. 2B Brock Holt
8. C Christian Vazquez
9. CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi

It is cloudy and cool in New York tonight. Has been all day. Not the best baseball weather, but there’s no heavy rain in the forecast, and that’s all that matters. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm ET and you can watch on TBS and TBS.com. Enjoy the game.

Injury Update: Aaron Hicks (hamstring) is doing “considerably” better and is available tonight. Aaron Boone said he wanted to give Hicks one more day just because hamstrings are tricky.

2018 ALDS Game Two: Yankees at Red Sox

October 6, 2018 by Mike

If it were May or June or July, it would be easy to chalk up last night’s loss as just one of those games. The starting pitcher had a bad night, the offense had chances but didn’t cash in, blah blah blah. Run of the mill loss. But, because it is October, that one really stings. Despite the early 5-0 deficit, that game was very winnable. The middle of the Red Sox bullpen did everything they could to give that game away and the Yankees said nah, we’re good.

So now the Yankees are down one game to none in the best-of-five ALDS. Fun fact: This is the eighth time the Yankees have lost Game One of the ALDS. They came back to win six of the previous seven series, including last year. The one exception is the 2007 ALDS against the Indians. The midge series. The Yankees, including this very group of players, know what it takes to erase a one game deficit in the best-of-five series. They did it last year. They have to do it again this year.

On the mound tonight will be Masahiro Tanaka, who had a 7.58 ERA in four starts and 19 innings against the Red Sox during the regular season. They hit .345/.382/.631 against him. And you know what that means right now? It means nothing. The same way J.A. Happ’s regular season 1.99 ERA against Red Sox meant nothing last night. If Tanaka’s on, and he dominant any lineup. Hopefully he’s on tonight. Here are the starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Luke Voit
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. SS Didi Gregorius
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. 2B Gleyber Torres
9. CF Brett Gardner

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Boston Red Sox
1. RF Mookie Betts
2. LF Andrew Benintendi
3. DH J.D. Martinez
4. SS Xander Bogaerts
5. 1B Mitch Moreland
6. 3B Eduardo Nunez
7. 2B Ian Kinsler
8. C Sandy Leon
9. CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

LHP David Price

Another cool and clear night in Boston. Good weather these first two games. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm ET (ugh) and you can watch on TBS and TBS.com. Enjoy the game, everyone.

Injury Update: Aaron Hicks (hamstring) went for an MRI this morning and it came back clean. There’s no strain. He still has some tightness but is available tonight. Thank goodness. Hopefully he’ll be back in the starting lineup for Game Three on Monday.

Update: Hicks exits ALDS Game One with tight hamstring

October 5, 2018 by Mike

12:04am ET: Here’s what Aaron Boone said after the game: “He’ll get examined further tomorrow, and have an MRI and everything. He felt like it might have been cramping, so we’ll just have to see. I haven’t personally spoken to him yet since he’s come out of the game. Hopefully we’ll have a clearer picture tomorrow when he gets up and we get some pictures, too.”

9:47pm ET: Hicks left the game with a tight right hamstring, the Yankees say. He had a tight left hamstring the last week of the regular season, so this is a new injury. He’s going for tests.

8:54pm ET: Well this is bad. Aaron Hicks exited ALDS Game One in the fourth inning tonight with an apparently leg injury. He shot a single to right field and jogged to first base, then kinda doubled over in pain. Hicks missed time with a tight hamstring in the final week of the regular season. Brett Gardner took over on the bases and in center field. Here’s the play:

The Yankees have not yet announced an update on Hicks, so stay tuned. He’s been one of their best players all season and losing him for any length of time would be bad. As a reminder, the Yankees can replace Hicks on their ALDS roster if he’s hurt, but, if they do, he will not be eligible to play in the ALCS. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that.

Yankees and Red Sox announce 2018 ALDS rosters

October 5, 2018 by Mike

This morning was the deadline for the Yankees and Red Sox to submit their 25-man ALDS rosters to MLB, and, shortly thereafter, the two clubs announced them officially. Yesterday Aaron Boone more or less confirmed the entire roster and it is as expected. No surprises.

Here is each team’s 25-man active roster for the ALDS, which begins later tonight:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (12)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ (Game 1 starter)
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (Game 2 starter)
LHP Stephen Tarpley

Catchers (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (6)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

BOSTON RED SOX

Pitchers (11)
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Game 4 starter)
RHP Joe Kelly
RHP Craig Kimbrel
RHP Rick Porcello (Game 3 starter)
LHP David Price (Game 2 starter)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
LHP Chris Sale (Game 1 starter)
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP Steven Wright

Catchers (3)
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart (UTIL)
Christian Vazquez

Infielders (7)
Xander Bogaerts
Rafael Devers
Brock Holt (IF/OF)
Ian Kinsler
Mitch Moreland
Eduardo Nunez
Steve Pearce (1B/OF)

Outfielders (4)
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
J.D. Martinez

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.