Aaron Hicks Archives - Page 2 of 17

Aaron Hicks placed on the 10-day DL with intercostal strain

March 30, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

4:47pm ET: Brian Cashman told reporters in Toronto that Hicks has a Grade I strain and didn’t want to go on the disabled list, but the Yankees decided to play it safe. He first felt it between his third and fourth at-bats yesterday. Cashman made it sound like the plan is to activate Ellsbury pretty much as soon as he’s eligible.

“It’s frustrating after spending the offseason trying to prevent something like this,” said Hicks who Erik Boland, adding he is “pain free.” “Last year I felt pain from the get-go. Right now it feels good.”

12:49pm ET: Another outfielder has been sidelined by injury. The Yankees have placed Aaron Hicks on the 10-day DL with a right intercostal strain, the team announced. Billy McKinney has been called up from Triple-A Scranton — their season has not yet started — to fill the roster spot. He’ll be making his MLB debut.

Hicks started yesterday and went 2-for-4, and played the entire game. There didn’t appear to be anything wrong with him during the game. This is a bit of a surprise. Hicks dealt with right and left oblique injuries last year. The intercostal is in the same neighborhood. Those rib cage area injuries have been a problem for Hicksie.

With Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique) and Clint Frazier (concussion) also on the disabled list, Brett Gardner will presumably take over as the starting center fielder. McKinney is a corner outfielder only, so I guess this means Tyler Wade is the backup center fielder? He didn’t play the outfield at all this spring, but has played there in the past.

Ellsbury returned to game action at the end of Spring Training and, with any luck, he shouldn’t be too far away from rejoining the Yankees. (He is eligible to be activated from the disabled list Thursday.) Frazier’s injury seems a little more long-term, though he has resumed baseball activities as of last week. He wouldn’t do much to help the center field situation, however.

McKinney, 23, came over from the Cubs in the Aroldis Chapman trade two years ago. He hit .277/.338/.483 (124 wRC+) with a career high 16 homers between Double-A and Triple-A last season, though he didn’t have a great spring, going 7-for-42 (.167) overall. McKinney did hit five homers though.

Gardner will move to center for the time being. Will Giancarlo Stanton or McKinney slot into left field? I guess we’ll find out soon enough. Could be a mix and match thing. Stanton on some days, McKinney on others. McKinney is a lefty bat, so I’d guess he’ll see most of his action against righties.

Update: Yankees announce 2018 Opening Day roster

March 29, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

March 29th: The Yankees officially announced their Opening Day roster this morning. It is as expected, only with Tyler Austin replacing the injured Greg Bird. The roster has been updated below. Also, Tyler Wade and Jonathan Holder have new numbers. Wade will wear No. 12 (had been No. 39) and Holder will wear No. 56 (had been No. 65)

March 24th: The Yankees have not yet made an official announcement, but the 2018 Opening Day roster is set. Domingo German was optioned out Saturday, and Brian Cashman told Pete Caldera that Jonathan Holder will be in the Opening Day bullpen as the eighth reliever. Here is the Opening Day roster:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
~~Greg Bird~~ Tyler Austin
Brandon Drury
Didi Gregorius
Ronald Torreyes
Tyler Wade
Neil Walker

OUTFIELDERS (4)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Giancarlo Stanton

STARTING PITCHERS (5)
RHP Sonny Gray
LHP Jordan Montgomery
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

RELIEF PITCHERS (8)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP David Robertson
LHP Chasen Shreve
RHP Adam Warren

DISABLED LIST (3)
Greg Bird (ankle, 10-day DL retroactive to March 26)
Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique, 10-day DL retroactive to March 26)
Clint Frazier (concussion, 7-day DL retroactive to March 26)

Cashman said German is going to Triple-A Scranton to remain stretched out as a starter. German and Luis Cessa are presumably the sixth and seventh starters in whatever order. Usually when a sixth starter is needed, it’s more about who’s available to pitch that day rather than who the team wants to pitch that day though.

Anyway, there are no surprises with the Opening Day roster. We were just waiting to find out the identity of the eight reliever. Wade played well in Spring Training and won a roster spot, and the Drury trade and Walker signing all but guaranteed Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres would begin the season in Triple-A. They’ll be up soon enough.

Obligatory reminder: The Opening Day roster and the end-of-season roster tend to look very different. Here is last year’s Opening Day roster, for example. Holder is keeping a roster spot warm for Ellsbury, who has already resumed playing in Grapefruit League games. He could be back soon. Frazier’s concussion looks to be more long-term, unfortunately.

The Yankees begin the season against the Blue Jays on Thursday, March 29th. There are still five days to go before the season opener, so the Opening Day roster could change if someone gets hurt — example: Drury taking a pitch to the elbow yesterday, though he escaped with a bruise — but hopefully that won’t be the case.

Five bold predictions for the 2018 Yankees season

March 21, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

One week and one day until the Yankees open the 2018 regular season in Toronto. Is it just me, or has Spring Training flown by this year? I feel like it’s gone much quicker than previous years. Maybe that’s because Spring Training was longer than usual last year due to the World Baseball Classic. Whatever. Opening Day is rapidly approaching and I can’t wait.

With the start of the regular season on the horizon, this is as good a time as any to lay down some bold 2018 Yankees predictions. Last year I came up with ten bold predictions and learned two things. One, ten is too many. And two, I didn’t go bold enough. I went 7-for-10 last year. As much as I’d like to say I’m just that smart, going 7-for-10 tells me my bold predictions weren’t really that bold.

So this year, I’m shortening up to five predictions that I hope qualify as actually, you know, bold. Or at least bolder than last season. Anyway, here are my five bold predictions for the 2018 Yankees season, in no particular order.

1. Hicks will lead the Yankees in WAR.

This could be a good thing or a bad thing! I try to be an optimist and hey, Spring Training is the time of year for unbridled optimism, so I see this as a good thing. I’m all in on Hicksie. I think last year’s first half Hicks, the guy who hit .290/.398/.515 (144 wRC+) with nearly as many walks (15.3%) as strikeouts (17.4%) before his oblique betrayed him in the second half, is the real Hicks going forward.

A few reasons I’m buying the new Hicks. One, this didn’t come out of nowhere. He’s a former first round pick and highly regarded prospect — Baseball America ranked him as the 19th best prospect in baseball prior to the 2010 season — so the talent has always been there. Two, Hicks has been making more and more hard contact with each passing season. His yearly hard contact rates:

2014: 24.1%
2015: 25.3%
2016: 28.9%
2017: 30.8%

Three, Hicks has always controlled the strike zone. Going into last season he had a 9.6% walk rate and a tiny 22.4% chase rate in his career. He didn’t swing-and-miss much either (8.9%). That overall .372 OBP last season wasn’t an accident. Four, he switch-hits! Never being at the platoon disadvantage is kind of a big deal. And five, Hicks is right smack in the middle of what should be the prime of his career. He turned 28 in October, and if there was ever a year to have a career year, this is it.

With good health this season, I think Hicks is a .280/.400/.500 guy with 20+ homers, 20+ steals, and very good center field defense. That last part is important. Hicks isn’t going to out-WAR guys like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez on offense alone. It’ll be the superb defense at an up-the-middle position that puts him over the top and into the +7 WAR range this season.

2. The Yankees will be the first team ever with four 40+ home runs hitters.

The four: Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, and Ronald Torreyes. Okay fine, Greg Bird instead of Torreyes. Only three teams in history have had as many as three 40-homer guys.

1973 Braves: Davey Johnson (43), Darrell Evans (41), Hank Aaron (40)
1996 Rockies: Andres Galarraga (47), Vinny Castilla (40), Ellis Burks (40)
1997 Rockies: Larry Walker (49), Galarraga (41), Castilla (40)

Competing with pre-humidor Coors Field won’t be easy, but the 2018 Yankees and Yankee Stadium are up to the task. Judge and Stanton are obvious 40-homer power guys and I think Sanchez gets there this year as well, especially if the Yankees do indeed cut back on his catching workload slightly to give him more DH days. Gary hit 33 homers in 122 games last season. Reaching 40 with good health is doable.

The fourth 40-homer guy is the sticking point. We all love Greg Bird. He’s awesome. But he has not been the most durable player in his career to date. HowEVA, he’s hit 20 homers in 94 regular season games despite playing 19 of those games with a bum ankle early last year. Getting to 40 homers in, say, 150 games is possible because Bird’s swing is so geared for the short porch. Allow me to repeat some numbers:

Career pull rate: 44.8% (MLB average: 39.8%)
Career ground ball rate: 28.4% (MLB average: 44.2%)
Career hard contact rate: 40.6% (MLB average: 31.8%)

A lefty hitter who hits the ball hard in the air and to the pull field is a great it for Yankee Stadium. We’ve seen it already. Bird has peppered the short porch when healthy. This will be the year he finally stays on the field, and that’ll allow him to make 40-homer history with Bird, Sanchez, and Stanton.

3. The Yankees will have four starters each make 30+ starts.

Every spring, like clockwork, we talk about the rotation and all the preexisting health concerns. There’s Masahiro Tanaka’s elbow and CC Sabathia’s knee and the young guys and their workloads limits. We all fret about the breakdown potential, then the Yankees go out and have a pretty good rotation anyway. The rotation was top ten in basically every meaningful category last year, and now the Yankees will have a full season of Sonny Gray.

Starters are throwing fewer innings with each passing season, and not only because they’re being pulled earlier within games. They’re also making fewer starts (by design). Teams are giving their starters more rest whenever possible. The Yankees certainly do that whenever they can. And yet, I have four Yankees starters making 30+ starts in 2018: Tanaka, Sabathia, Gray, and Jordan Montgomery. Why not Luis Severino? Because I think the Yankees will be extra cautious with him after last season’s workload. He might have to settle for 28 or 29 starts.

One team having four pitchers make 30+ starts in a single season doesn’t happen often but it does happen. Recent World Series winners like the 2016 Cubs (Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester), the 2012 Giants (Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, Barry Zito), and the 2011 Cardinals (Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook) all managed to do it. Here are the last three times the Yankees got 30+ starts from four pitchers:

2009: Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, Andy Pettitte
2003: Pettitte, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, David Wells
1999: Pettitte, Clemens, David Cone, Orlando Hernandez

Notice a pattern here? Very good things tend to happen when teams have four starters stay healthy all season. It doesn’t guarantee success — John Danks, Jose Quintana, Chris Sale, and Jeff Samardzija all made 30+ starts for the 2015 White Sox and they went 72-90 — but if it happens, I’m feeling good about my team’s chances. The 2018 Yankees will join the “four starters with 30+ starts each” club. And they might be the only team to do it this year.

4. Cessa emerges as the next great Yankees reliever.

This worked with Chad Green last year so I might as well try it with the other player in the Justin Wilson trade this year. I have (inexplicably?) been a Luis Cessa fan the last two years — that isn’t to say I think he’s a budding ace or anything, but I think he’s a long-term big leaguer — though he has probably reached the point where sticking with the Yankees as a starter isn’t going to happen. Spot starter? Sure. Full-time starter? Nah.

Green started last season as the de facto sixth starter before moving to the bullpen out of necessity, and he took off from there. I can see the same thing happening with Cessa, even while acknowledging this year’s bullpen is way better and way deeper than last year’s first half bullpen. Extra arms are always needed. Guys get hurt or underperform. That’s baseball. At some point the Yankees will need a long man and Cessa figures to get the call.

There are three reasons I believe Cessa can succeed as a short reliever. One, he has plenty of velocity. Last season he averaged 95.4 mph and topped out at 99.5 mph with the fastball, even as a starter. Two, his slider misses plenty of bats. It’s true. Last year he threw his slider a touch more than 30% of the time and:

Swing-and-miss rate: 21.4% (MLB average for sliders: 16.9%)
Whiffs-per-swing rate: 43.2% (MLB average for sliders: 35.2%)

Cessa also throws a curveball and a changeup, but with a move into short relief, he can forget about those pitches and work exclusively with an upper-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. That’s similar to what Green did, right? He moved to the bullpen, shelved his subpar secondary pitches, and leaned on his best offering, which happens to be his fastball. Cessa with something like a 55/45 fastball/slider split could be real good.

And three, Cessa’s splits once the lineup turns over are insane. Here are his career numbers each time through the order:

First Time: .212/.279/.385
Second Time: .284/.340/.534
Third Time: .280/.333/.600

Yeah. Cessa is also way more effective from pitches 1-25 (.221/.288/.430) than pitches 26+ (.260/.319/.486). This is Cessa’s final minor league option year, so if he doesn’t carve out a role this season, he’s probably a goner a la Bryan Mitchell. Forget the rotation. Scrap the changeup and curveball, and use him in short relief. It worked with Green last year. It could work with Cessa this year. The opportunity to use him this way will present itself at some point. I have no doubt about it.

5. Medina finishes the season as a top 50 prospect.

Luis Medina is a rising star in the farm system. The Yankees signed the 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic for $280,000 back in July 2015, and he’s already generating lots of buzz. Medina received votes for Baseball America’s annual top 100 prospects list, and, in a separate piece, they say he has “an excellent chance to find himself in next year’s Top 100 Prospects.” Keith Law called Medina the “next great starter prospect in what looks like a line of them from the majors on down.”

The scouting report on Medina is drool worthy. Here’s what MLB.com says:

Medina isn’t physically imposing but has an exceptionally quick arm that repeatedly delivers 95-100 mph fastballs that top out at 102 and feature some cutting action. Both of his secondary pitches have a chance to be at least plus pitches as well. He has a power curveball with a high spin rate and a 90-92 mph changeup with splitter action that can devastate hitters, especially if they’re trying to sit on his heater.

The scouting report also says Medina has a “lofty ceiling as a frontline starter.” As with many 18-year-old hurlers, Medina’s biggest weakness is his command and control. He walked 24 in 38.2 rookie ball innings last season, or 14.0% of batters faced. Also, Medina managed to uncork 18 (!) wild pitches. So yeah, throwing the ball over the plate is the top developmental priority this season. Here’s some video:

The various scouting publications are already talking about Medina as a potential top 100 prospect next year. I think he’s going to figure out how to throw strikes this year — look at his delivery in the video above and look at his delivery when the Yankees signed him in 2015, his tempo is better and he seems way more under control now — and if he does that, he’ll be a top 50 prospect given his stuff.

I should note it would not be unprecedented for an 18-year-old pitching prospect to rank among the 50 best prospects in baseball. Anderson Espinoza was a consensus top 25 prospect at 18 two years ago. Julio Urias was a top 50 prospect four years ago, when he was only 17. Back in the day Felix Hernandez was a top prospect as a teenager. That isn’t to say Medina will be Felix. That’d be nuts. The point is a kid like a Medina, an 18-year-old with a golden arm, can be considered one of the top 50 prospects in baseball, and I’m going to boldly predict he makes that jump this year.

Brett Gardner and the future of the leadoff spot

March 8, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

For much of the last five seasons Brett Gardner has occupied the leadoff spot for the Yankees, and he’s been one of the more productive leadoff hitters in the game. Gardner started 513 of 810 possible games at the leadoff spot from 2013-17 — Jacoby Ellsbury started most of the other 297 games at leadoff — and during that time the Yankees are top ten in OBP and wRC+ from the leadoff spot.

Aaron Boone recently said he’s kicked around the idea of batting Aaron Judge leadoff — “I’ve thought of it. I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s likely. But something like that I would view as possible,” he said to Brendan Kuty — though it would surprise me if anyone other than Gardner batted leadoff this season. At least at the start of the season. Maybe at some point he has to be bumped down due to a lack of performance. For now, I think it’s safe to say Gardner’s the guy.

How much longer will Gardner be the leadoff hitter? It’s tough to say, though I don’t think it’ll be that much longer. He’ll turn 35 in August and 2018 is the final guaranteed year on his contract. The Yankees could pick up his $12.5M option for 2019 — Brian Cashman told Kevin Kernan they’ve yet to discuss Gardner’s future, which makes seeing how there’s an entire season to be played before a decision has to be made — but even then Gardner might not bat leadoff next year. His performance may no longer warrant it.

At some point in the not-too-distant future the Yankees will have to find a new leadoff hitter. Maybe this year, maybe next year, maybe two years from now. It’ll happen at some point reasonably soon. And looking at the current roster and the farm system, there’s not an obvious long-term leadoff hitter in the organization. Three names immediately jump to mind as leadoff candidates:

Jacoby Ellsbury
Aaron Hicks
Gleyber Torres

Ellsbury has not been good the last few years and it’s difficult to expect him to get better as he enters his mid-30s, so even though he’s under contract another three years, I’d bet against him being the next leadoff guy. Hicks has the OBP skills to hit leadoff, though he’s yet to have a full productive season, and even then he’s only under control through 2019. He might not be around any longer than Gardner.

Gleyber is an interesting case because he has the bat-to-ball skills and the OBP ability to hit leadoff, and there are some questions about his long-term power, and the best spot for high on-base/low power guy is leadoff. The Yankees have Judge and Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton to hit in the middle of the order for the foreseeable future, so it’ll be tough for Torres to slot into the lineup as the No. 3 or No. 4 hitter. Leadoff may be the best spot for him.

Didi Gregorius doesn’t get on base enough to bat leadoff. Love the guy, but no. Estevan Florial is too far away to start planning his future lineup spot. Miguel Andujar or Brandon Drury probably won’t have the OBP skills for leadoff and Thairo Estrada might not hit enough in general to warrant getting more at-bats than literally everyone else in the lineup. Tyler Wade? He might be the best long-term leadoff candidate in the organization. Wade can run and he has a history of getting on base, and the skills to continue getting on base. He’s almost like the infield version of Gardner.

There is a case to be made for batting Judge leadoff, a case built around his great on-base ability and the fact he sees tons of pitches. If he were even a 30-homer guy instead of a 50-homer guy, it would make more sense to me. George Springer, Brian Dozier, and Charlie Blackmon all socked 30+ dingers as leadoff guys last year. But 50? I think Judge has way too much power to stick him at leadoff, where roughly one-fifth of his at-bats would come with the bases empty. Bat him second and his OBP is still high in the lineup, but there will be more men on base to take advantage of his power.

Signing a free agent or making a trade for a post-Gardner leadoff hitter is certainly possible, and it may come to that. Hicks might not stick around long-term, Wade might not hit enough to deserve a premium lineup spot, and Gleyber might be too good to hit anywhere other than the middle of the order. Right now, in March 2018, I’d rank the future leadoff hitters candidates like so:

Gleyber Torres
Trade pickup
Tyler Wade
Free agent signing
Aaron Hicks
Jacoby Ellsbury

Gleyber at the top because I think he has the best chance of being great and being a Yankee long-term. Hicks near the bottom because he’s two years from free agency and simply might not be around much longer. The Yankees — or pretty much any team, for that matter — are seemingly no longer interested in adding payroll, which is why I think a trade is more likely than a free agent signing. The Yankees will probably prioritize paying Judge and Sanchez (and Luis Severino) before spending money on someone else’s players.

For now, the Yankees have a leadoff hitter in Gardner and a pretty good backup leadoff hitter in Hicks, plus there’s always Ellsbury, who could fill in if necessary. Gleyber and Wade are knocking on the door and could seize the job long-term, so figuring out the next leadoff hitter is more of a thought exercise than a problem in need of a solution. These things tend to sort themselves out. Lots can and will change between now and the time the Yankees need to replace Gardner as the leadoff hitter, which could be as far as two years away.

So what is a post-breakout Aaron Hicks? [2018 Season Preview]

March 7, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

There’s a version of the 2017 Yankees where Aaron Hicks is a much bigger story.

From the get-go, he was overshadowed by Aaron Judge in a kinda-sorta-maybe rigged battle for right field that you knew Judge was going to win if he hit at all. And then came Judge’s otherworldly rookie season and there was little room for Hicks to find screen time in his own breakout role.

On last year’s postseason coverage, Alex Rodriguez mentioned that Hicks was soft-spoken, so it makes sense that the quiet guy in the clubhouse would be behind the scenes. Still, Hicks did plenty of speaking with his bat and it’s not like Yankee fans didn’t notice No. 31 taking over center field.

As with every breakout season, there comes the inevitable backlash a year later that it’s not sustainable. He can’t replicate that. That wasn’t his true talent level. So here we are: Can Hicks put together just as good of a 2018? Let’s examine further:

Projections

2017 Season: .266/.372/.475, 15 HR, 14.1% BB, 18.6% K, 361 PA

2018 Steamer: .251/.337/.422, 16 HR, 11.5% BB, 19.0% K, 472 PA
ZiPS: .247/.334/.421, 20 HR, 11.6% BB, 20.1% K, 423 PA
PECOTA: .235/.321/.381, 12 HR, 10.8% BB, 21.2% K, 451 PA

Steamer and ZiPS buy some of the breakout while PECOTA simply doesn’t seem him as any different from 2012-16 Hicks. It makes sense stat-wise, particularly when you look at his second-half numbers. His .218/.319/.396 in 119 plate appearances looks a lot like that PECOTA projection.

The other thing you might notice is that he doesn’t have full 600-ish PA-season in any projection. He’s never had more than 390 PAs in a season, so his biggest test will be surpassing that.

Is he really that good a hitter?

In 88 games last year, Hicks batted .266/.372/.475 (127 wRC+) while producing 3.3 fWAR. Some of that wins production was his defensive value (more on that later), but he was a legitimate offensive stud when healthy.

As noted above, there were essentially two different Hicks seasons in 2017: First half and second half. It’s a clean split between the two due to his first oblique injury of the year. His hitting unsurprisingly suffered after coming back from that injury and he dealt with the issue again. Check out his wOBA (the noticeable decline you see in 2017 is right when the oblique injury happened).

Interestingly, his walk rate saw a similar dip, though he showed off his eye with a pair of multi-walk games at the end of the season.

The overall production decline makes sense, though the walk rate is tougher to parse. Was his timing off after the injury? Probably, though his world-beating walk rate for the first couple months of the year was also unsustainable.

Still, Hicks produced at a level he simply hadn’t before. The centerfielder thrived in an everyday role with the same No. of PAs in 35 fewer games. It’s concerning he was limited to just 88 games, but the production is key. The Yankees have outfield depth, so someone making those starts needs to produce.

Hicks lifted the ball more like everyone else in 2017, posting a career-high fly-ball rate. However, he also had a tough to sustain 15.8 percent HR/FB rate. His average estimated HR distance (348 feet) was one of the lowest marks in the league and was, in fact, the lowest for any player with at least 10 homers. Like Didi, that power could be sustainable if you’re pulling the ball at Yankee Stadium like Hicks was.

So it makes sense that Hicks was a better hitter all around at home vs. on the road. Unlike 2016, he wasn’t essentially useless on the road and still posted an above-average wRC+ (118) outside of Yankee Stadium.

Similarly, he was better against southpaws while posting career-best numbers against righties. He hits for more power from the left-side, but his average spikes as a righty. He’s an ideal switch-hitter if he maintains little difference in his platoon splits.

Injury concerns

Each of the last two seasons, Hicks had exactly 361 plate appearances. In 2016, a large reason why he didn’t get a full season’s worth of at-bats was his role as a backup. But he also missed over three weeks with a hamstring injury.

A year later, he had two separate stints on the disabled list with oblique injuries. The concern with Hicks is that he’s very willing to throw his body around on defense to make plays to the point where it could lead to injury (the first oblique injury vs. Texas in June, for example).

This offseason, it appears Hicks dedicated himself to becoming a behemoth of a human being. Muscles upon muscles. I’m a very big fan of swole Aaron Hicks and would like to see those combat muscles for 162 games in 2018.

Defensively sound

The opposing team has a speedy guy on first base and there’s a single up the middle. If Jacoby Ellsbury is in center, that player is going first to third without question. If it’s Aaron Hicks, oh boy, that guy is stopping right in his tracks.

Hicks robbed two grand slams last year and makes up for occasional bad reads with his above-average sprint speed (according to Baseball Savant), making diving catches and strong plays near the wall. You also can’t discuss Hicks’ defensive skills without mentioning his No. 1 tool, his arm. That thing is still a cannon and particularly when compared to Ellsbury’s arm, it’s staggering. It’s gone under the radar how many runners have to go station-to-station instead of taking the extra base because of Hicks’ rocket.

DRS loved him last year as he was tied for seventh with 15 runs saved among outfielders despite playing just 689.2 Inn in the field.) UZR/150 had him fifth. He rated much higher in 2017 than in 2016, which could be partially due to a consistent role in center field instead of bouncing around the outfield.

***

What should we make of Hicks after his breakout 2017? He’s clearly a lot more talented than his below replacement level 2016, but his second half is cause for concern. Even with the presence of a cadre of elite outfielders flanking him, Hicks still has an important role and the team could use a lot more than 361 plate appearances over 88 games from him.

Even if he can’t return to his first-half excellence of 2017, he can be valuable as long as he stays on the field and does the small things. Use his eye to force pitchers to work at the bottom of the order. Get on base at a decent clip. Hold runners with his arm. The power and the overall average is extra. I don’t see him getting 600 plate appearances due to the Yankees’ superior outfield depth, but expecting 500 is not unreasonable for Hicks.

Stepping Up: Aaron Hicks in 2018

February 18, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

I’ve been a part time player, so to speak, a lot in my life. Before landing a full-time job in the summer of 2016, I was something of a migrant teacher. In Connecticut, between April of 2013 and June of 2016, I taught in five schools, never for more than a year at a time, as a long-term substitute. I taught every grade from 7-12, with the exception of 8th, going through myriad curricula, from creative writing to world literature, and everything in between. And all the while, I never felt settled until I got my chance at a full time job. If you’ll allow me a stretch–as you so often do–the situation I was in is vaguely analogous to that of Aaron Hicks.

After missing all of July and having a very ‘meh’ return to the field in August and beyond, Hicks is slotted to be the Yankees’ center fielder this year from the jump, as opposed to having to play a bench role or usurp an established starter as was the case in 2016 and 2017. Hicks is a switch hitter and a solid defender, bonuses on top of his youth relative to his competition, not counting Clint Frazier (who’s not really competition anyway); he still has upside left, unlike Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Despite appearing in every season since 2013, Hicks has never had more than 361 PA in a season, which he notched both in 2016 and 2017. In 2016, that came in 123 games; last year, it came in only 81, showing the trajectory of his career from bench player into starter. This year, barring injury, he’ll pass both of those marks, assuming health.

Hicks brings a patient approach at the plate and adds pop, too. He also plays a good outfield and has a rocket for an arm. This is just about everything you’d want in a center fielder. Additionally, if his Instagram account is anything to be believed, Hicks has worked incredibly hard this offseason to make this a healthy and productive season.

All of this is a long way to say that Aaron Hicks is a player we can all be rooting for to take the spotlight in 2018. Though he can–and hopefully will–produce, the pressure won’t necessarily be on him to do so, given the other bats in the lineup. After injuries and waiting in line, Hicks is in a good position to enhance his career and take a big step, just like the club he’s a part of.

Finding the most sensible batting order for the 2018 Yankees

February 7, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

I don’t know about you, but as soon as the Yankees acquired Giancarlo Stanton, I started thinking about the lineup possibilities. Heck, I started thinking about them even before the trade went down, during the rumor phase. I reckon most baseball fans — even non-Yankees fans — were thinking about the lineup with Stanton after the trade. How could you not? It’s part of the fun of being a fan.

“You know what? Really quick,” said Aaron Boone at the Winter Meetings (video link) when asked how quickly he started sketching out lineups after the Stanton trade. “I think that’s the first thing I did after I left (Brian Cashman)’s office hearing the possibility of it. I think I grabbed I piece of paper and a pen, and I sat right down — like I bet you guys have as well — to see the potential moving parts.”

Spring Training is not going to tell us anything about how Boone may arrange his regular batting order. Grapefruit League lineups are designed to let guys get their work in, then go home. That’s why veterans are always stacked high in the order. They get their two or three at-bats, then check out for the day. Spring lineups aren’t indicative of what we might see during the regular season.

The Yankees and Boone still have some positions to figure out in Spring Training, specifically second and third bases, but unless they swing a trade for Jose Altuve or Manny Machado, I don’t see those positions affecting the lineup. The basic outline of the batting order is fairly straightforward:

Brett Gardner
Really good hitter
Really good hitter
Really good hitter
Really good hitter
Really good hitter
Really good hitter
Second or third baseman
Second or third baseman

There is a case to be made for batting Aaron Judge leadoff given his on-base ability, though as I explained in a recent mailbag, I don’t love that idea because it wastes some of his power. Batting Judge leadoff means roughly one-fifth of his at-bats will automatically come with the bases empty. Teams are batting power hitters leadoff these days — Charlie Blackmon, George Springer, and Brian Dozier are regular leadoff hitters — but a 50-homer guy? Nah.

You could also make a case for batting Aaron Hicks leadoff, or even Jacoby Ellsbury. I’m a Hicks believer, though I want to see him do it again before locking him into a premium lineup spot. Ellsbury? He’s not even a starter right now. Last season was his best offensive season in several years, and I think he has to earn that leadoff spot back, not be awarded it (and a starting spot) based on … his contract? Not sure what else it could be.

For better or worse, Gardner is the obvious choice at the leadoff spot right now. He’s one of the best count-workers in baseball, he gets on base plenty, and he has enough pop to sock a few quick strike leadoff homers throughout the season. (Gardner hit five leadoff homers last year.) Gardner is a natural fit at the leadoff spot until his performance says he should should hit lower in order, and he hasn’t reached that point yet.

Realistically, I’m not sure there’s anyone the Yankees could acquire for second and/or third base who should hit higher than eighth in the lineup. If they bring in Neil Walker and Eduardo Nunez, they’ll hit eighth and ninth. If they go with Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, they’ll hit eighth and ninth. Maybe Mike Moustakas would bat sixth or seventh? I suppose, though I’m not counting on the Yankees signing him, not with the luxury tax plan.

The middle of the order, the two through seven spots, have generated the most discussion this offseason because the Yankees have so many good hitters. How do you line them up? As long as Boone doesn’t do something silly like bat Judge or Stanton seventh, whatever he does will be fine. He’ll have really good hitters in the middle of the lineup no matter what. Let’s still talk about the lineup a bit.

1. How important is it to split up the righties? The lineup topic of the offseason. Stanton and Judge are two right-handed power hitters who will strike out, and because of that, I’ve seen an awful lot of people say the Yankees should squeeze a left-handed hitter between them in the lineup. We should include Gary Sanchez in this conversation too, because he’s another right-handed power hitter who will strike out from time to time.

The thinking behind putting a lefty between Stanton and Judge is it forces the opposing manager to do one of two things. Either he has to burn through multiple relievers to match up with the dangerous right-left-right portion of the lineup, or he’ll have to leave his righty in to face the lefty (or a lefty in to face the righty). Judge and Stanton are susceptible to righties with good breaking balls (aren’t all righties?) and you want to do something to counteract that. The thing about that though:

	vs. RHP in 2017
Aaron Judge	.298/.417/.662 (179 wRC+)
Giancarlo Stanton	.270/.354/.596 (144 wRC+)
Gary Sanchez	.282/.343/.530 (130 wRC+)
Didi Gregorius	.295/.325/.523 (120 wRC+)
Greg Bird	.168/.275/.370 (71 wRC+)

Don’t think it’s fair to use Bird’s overall season numbers given his injury and how crummy he was in April? Okay, he hit .222/.306/.508 (110 wRC+) against righties after coming off the disabled list and .270/.341/.574 (147 wRC+) during his big league debut in 2015, which feels like a lifetime ago.

Point is, the three right-handed hitters all out-hit the two lefties against right-handed pitchers last season. Will they continue to out-hit them against righties this season? I don’t see why not. Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez are all in their primes — you could argue Judge and Sanchez haven’t reached their primes yet — and they’re all really good hitters. We’re not talking about some randos who BABIPed their way to a good year against righties in 2017.

The numbers say it’s not worth squeezing a lefty between Judge and Stanton (and Sanchez) because they hit righties just fine. Empirical evidence says managers do weird stuff all the time and, inevitably, some manager will burn through his bullpen to play matchups against the right-left-right portion of the lineup, and it’ll come back to bite him. A manager will bring in his lefty specialist to face the lefty and leave him in against Stanton or Judge or Sanchez. It’ll happen at some point. You watch.

Can you build your lineup around that though? Can you base your lineup on the idea that the opposing manager will make a silly pitching decision at some point? Teams are pretty smart these days. We’re seeing more true high-leverage relievers nowadays. Managers bring in their best reliever in the game’s biggest spot regardless of platoon matchups. Left-on-left specialists like Clay Rapada are a dying breed. There isn’t enough room for a guy like that in the bullpen with starters throwing so few innings these days.

Bottom line, squeezing a lefty like Gregorius or Bird between Judge and Stanton (and Sanchez) means giving an inferior hitter more at-bats. Remember how terrifying it was when David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez batted back-to-back? Now imagine if it was Ortiz-Trot Nixon-Manny instead. Trot Nixon was a pretty good hitter! But we all would’ve welcomed the one-batter reprieve between Ortiz and Manny. Just think about it. If you were a pitcher, would you rather face …

2. Judge
3. Stanton
4. Sanchez

… or …

2. Judge
3. Gregorius or Bird
4. Stanton

I know what I’d pick. Judge and Stanton (and Sanchez!) are great hitters. Not good hitters. Great hitters. Squeezing a lefty between them for a sake of platoon matchups strikes me as paralysis by analysis.

“Absolutely you can (bat the three righties in a row),” said Boone to George King at the Winter Meetings. “That will be one of those things that we flesh out. What’s Greg Bird’s continued development? What is the matchup? Do we feel like we want one of those lefties breaking those three guys up? It’s something that is a possibility, but I would have no reservation if we feel like it’s best to string those three dudes together.”

2. What about splitting up the lefties? Paul O’Neill complains about this all the time during YES Network broadcasts. If you’re a righty who can’t hit righties, no one thinks too much about it. But if you’re a lefty who can’t hit lefties, it’s a Really Big Deal. You get labeled a platoon player and opposing managers have (or had for a long time) a designated guy in the bullpen to get you out. Righty specialists were never as much of a thing as lefty specialists. Not even close.

When Gregorius first joined the Yankees, there was concern he’d never hit left-handed pitching, then he went out and hit .324/.361/.473 (125 wRC+) against lefties in 2016, and everyone stopped talking about his platoon issues. Look at Didi’s year-by-year numbers against southpaws though:

2015: .247/.311/.315 (74 wRC+) in 164 plate appearances
2016: .324/.361/.473 (125 wRC+) in 161 plate appearances
2017: .264/.299/.354 (72 wRC+) in 155 plate appearances

One of those things is not like the others. Bird is a .257/.346/.500 (127 wRC+) career hitter against lefties in a whopping 81 plate appearances. The sample sizes are inconvenient, but that’s the way it goes with platoon data. There are way fewer left-handed pitchers in baseball than right-handed pitchers. (That’s one possible explanation why some lefty hitters have so much trouble against lefty pitchers. They simply don’t see them much.)

Two things about this. One, I think splitting up Didi and Bird to potentially avoid unfavorable platoon matchups is more important than splitting up Judge and Stanton (and Sanchez!). And two, I don’t think splitting up Didi and Bird should be a top priority. Based on my observations, Gregorius can hang in well enough against southpaws, and will hit for an okay-ish average. Bird has a good eye will annihilate mistake pitches even against great lefties.

Because that obsession with left-on-left matchups exists in baseball, at least moreso than right-on-right matchups, it might be worthwhile to squeeze a righty between Gregorius and Bird. Can that be accomplishment without weakening the lineup overall, and giving fewer at-bats to the cornerstone righties? I’m not sure. I won’t sweat it much. Designing a lineup around a scenario that might not happen never made much sense to me. It always bugged me that Joe Girardi would split the lefties to void the late left-on-left matchup rather than use a lineup that creates the best possible matchup against the opposing starter. It is what it is.

3. So what’s the best lineup? The best lineup and the lineup Boone is most likely to use are not necessarily the same thing. Using 2018 ZiPS projections and Dave Pinto’s lineup analysis tool, this is the best lineup the Yankees could run out there this season:

Brett Gardner
Giancarlo Stanton
Greg Bird
Aaron Judge
Gary Sanchez
Didi Gregorius
Gleyber Torres
Miguel Andujar
Aaron Hicks

Interesting! Interesting because it wouldn’t be completely insane if that were the Opening Day lineup. I could see it. Stanton batted second a bunch for the Marlins last season and Hicks would serve as the “second” leadoff guy in the nine-spot. That lineup projects to score 5.482 runs per game, or 888 runs per 162 games, according to the lineup analysis tool.

The lineup Boone will use is a bit of a mystery because this is his first managerial gig and we don’t know what kind of manager he’ll be. Is he an old school type that wants a bat control hitter second? Is he so new school that he’s willing to bat Judge leadoff? How important is splitting up the lefties? We don’t know. My guess is the Yankees will go into the season with this lineup:

LF Brett Gardner
RF/DH Aaron Judge
RF/DH Giancarlo Stanton
SS Didi Gregorius
C Gary Sanchez
1B Greg Bird
CF Aaron Hicks
Second or third baseman
Second or third baseman

I can’t shake the feeling the Yankees will sneak a left-handed contact hitter into the middle of the three righties to compensate for the strikeouts. Hopefully I’m wrong. Squeezing Didi in at cleanup means you still have that Ortiz/Manny thing with Judge and Stanton, but also split up the lefties. Bird is the x-factor to me. If he stays healthy and produces early, he’ll find himself higher in the order.

“We’re hoping to see Greg Bird take another giant leap this year and be one of those guys that really makes a pitcher work,” said Boone during a radio interview in December. “We saw what Didi did last year. Obviously, Gary Sanchez. When an opposing pitcher looks at our lineup and thinks about having to work through it, it’s a team that you better make pitches against. Otherwise, this is a team that not only will make you pay with a base hit, but it will also make you pay with some damage.”

My preferred lineup is basically the same lineup as above, only with Sanchez and Didi flipped. I’m not going to sweat batting the three big righty bats in a row. Stack the best hitters together and let ’em eat. Ultimately, the Yankees have so many good hitters that the order won’t matter that much. As long as Boone doesn’t do anything crazy like bat Judge eighth or Ronald Torreyes leadoff, the Yankees will be fine. The lineup will evolve as the season progresses and, before you know it, the Yankees will settle into a lineup that just works.

“Those little lineup (ideas), they can happen at any time,” said Boone during a radio interview last month. “You could be sitting in traffic. You could be lying in bed and not fall asleep, grab out a pad and paper and scribble things down. That’s the fun part at this point, especially with some of the guys we have, picturing how they best go together in a lineup.”