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Oct

Playoff rotation comes into view

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak | Comments (84)

As the Yanks prepare for a three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays to close out the season, the playoffs are looming large in the minds of the Bombers and their fans. With the pitching match-ups set for this weekend, we know a firm sense of the Yanks’ plans and can debate the merits of the Andy-and-A.J. decision.

Earlier this week, the Yankees announced that CC Sabathia would start on Friday night in search of his 20th win. Most of the Yanks’ A team will back him up. On Saturday, Andy Pettitte will take the ball in a final regular-season tune-up, and on Sunday, A.J. Burnett and the ALDS Game 1 lineup will earn themselves at least a few innings of time on the field. And so, as I’ve done once a week or so for the last few weeks, we extrapolate.

It’s safe to assume that the Yankees are going to take the longer ALDS series to avoid the Joba/Chad Gaudin decision that looms not as large as we might think (but more on that when and if the time comes). The pitching rotation, then, looks a little something like this:

Date	Game	Pitcher
Oct. 2	vs. TB	Sabathia
Oct. 3	vs. TB	Pettitte
Oct. 4	vs. TB	Burnett
Oct. 5	Off Day
Oct. 6	Off Day
Oct. 7	ALDS 1	Sabathia
Oct. 8	Off Day
Oct. 9	LDS 2	Pettitte
Oct. 10	Off Day
Oct. 11	ALDS 3	Burnett
Oct. 12	ALDS 4*	Sabathia
Oct. 13	Off Day
Oct. 14	ALDS 5*	Pettitte

We know that Chip Caray and Ron Darling will be manning the broadcast booth for the Yankees vs. Tigers/Twins. Now we have a pretty good idea who will be pitching.

On Wednesday, Joe tackled the Andy-and-A.J. debate and came to the conclusion I would have drawn. “I like A.J. as much as the next guy, he wrote, “but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.”

Personally, we’d all rather have CC Sabathia on the mound in the a do-or-die Game 5, but Game 4 could be just as important. Either the Yanks will try to close the door on the Tigers or Twins or the Bombers will have to win Game 4 to force Game 5. CC fights the bill for that match-up.

There is an interesting twist to the post-season pitching previews as well that I didn’t include in the chart. Right now, the Tigers hold a two-game lead over the Twins. In an ideal world, these two teams will tie so that they have to play a game on Tuesday. In an also-ideal world, the Twins will be a game behind the Tigers come Sunday. That day, you see, is Justin Verlander’s next start. If the Tigers face a must-win situation, they will start Verlander on Sunday, and he won’t be available to pitch on regular rest until Game 2. Although that would line him up to pitch Game 5, I’d take my chances with the rest of the Tigers’ rotation.

If the Tigers win a pair this weekend or if the Twins drop two to the Royals, the point will be moot. Verlander can rest until Game 1, and we’d have ourselves a good old fashioned pitcher’s battle to start the playoffs. I’m ready. Are you?

Categories : Playoffs

Comments (84)

Sep

Yanks face a few postseason decisions

Posted by: Joseph Pawlikowski | Comments (86)

There aren’t too many decisions left for the 2009 Yankees. Beyond some minor decisions on how to construct the postseason roster, there are only a few questions to ask. While some might be wondering if Molina will catch Burnett, I’ve got a bigger question in mind. Will the Yanks start Burnett in Game 2 or Game 3? This is no small matter. The Game 2 starter would also start a potential Game 5. Who do you trust most in that spot?

In the aggregate, Burnett and Pettitte look like similar pitchers. Their ERAs are right in line, as are their WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 numbers. Burnett strikes out more batters but also walks more, leaving the pitchers about even in K/BB. Both have had dominant stretches, A.J.’s from June through mid-July, and Andy’s in August. Using this base information it might seem like the decision could go either way. But as we’ve learned, things aren’t always as they seem in the aggregate.

Our favorite optimist notes one major difference between A.J. and Andy:

Take a look at these splits: Pettitte’s home ERA is exactly an entire run higher than his road ERA, an OPS against that’s over 100 points lower on the road and fourteen home runs surrendered at home against only five on the road.

Burnett’s splits are similar to Pettitte’s in terms of home-road difference, just reversed.

That would make it seem obvious, right? Start A.J. at home in Game 2 and then Pettitte on the road in Game 3. It’s called playing the percentages. It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames. The schedule would also point to this conclusion. If the Yankees choose the A series, as most of us expect, they’d be able to start Sabathia on normal rest in Game 1, then Burnett on normal rest in Game 2, with Pettitte starting on seven days’ rest on the 11th. If they went with Pettitte in Game 2 he’d be on five days’ rest, and Burnett would be on six days’ rest for Game 3.

Yet that doesn’t take into consideration other factors. For instance, commenter JGS on Rebecca’s post notes that Pettitte has pitched better at home since the All-Star Break:

Andy at home since the Break:
2-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.216 WHIP

Andy on the road since the break:
4-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.068 WHIP

Maybe the home/road split is a bit overblown. Do the Yankees go with the season-long numbers, or the post-break numbers, when they’ve played like a completely different team?

There’s one last monkey wrench to consider: what if the Yankees choose series B? It seems like a long shot, but it’s possible. A friend mentioned that on Baseball Tonight, Peter Gammons said he heard the Yanks were going with the B series. This would make particular sense if playing the Tigers, because it would force Jim Leyland to either use his fourth starter in a potential Game 4, or use Justin Verlander on short rest. Neither is an ideal scenario.

Choosing the B series would make the Burnett-Pettitte decision moot. Joba Chamberlain would then pitch a potential Game 4, against either Nate Robertson, Jarrod Wasburn, or Justin Verlander, and then CC would come back for a potential Game 5. The problem there is that you can’t reverse the decision mid-round. If the Yanks find themselves in an elimination Game 4, they might not want Joba out there. That would necessitate trotting out Sabathia on short rest.

If the Yanks sweep, all this will be moot. Game 3 in both series is on October 11, and the Yanks would be able to realign their rotation for the ALCS. The longer it goes, the more important the Yanks’ decisions — both the choice of series and the starter alignment — become. If the Yanks win in four with Sabathia on the mound they’d probably have to slide him back to ALCS Game 2. If the Yanks win in 5, I doubt they’ll mind holding back CC until Game 3.

I hope the Yankees choose the short series. There’s a risk in starting Joba, but that’s somewhat mitigated by CC’s potential Game 5 start. The only way that scenario plays out poorly is if the Yankees face elimination in Game 4. They’d almost have to use CC on short rest, and then their Game 2 starter in Game 5. In that regard, I’d rather see Pettitte in Game 2. I like A.J. as much as the next guy, but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.

Categories : Playoffs

Comments (86)

Sep

Yanks walk off to seventh straight win

Posted by: Joseph Pawlikowski | Comments (60)

The standings might say that these are meaningless games, but the Yankees aren’t acting like it. They started to surge last week by taking two of three from the Angels in Anaheim and haven’t let off the accelerator, even after clinching everything. Early last night it looked as if they’d let up a bit, but they mounted yet another late-inning comeback to steal a win from the Kansas City Royals.

The Royals staged the first rally, in the top of the seventh, though it had more to do with Phil Coke than the Kansas City offense. He came with a man on first and one out, to face Alex Gordon, Josh Anderson, and Mitch Maier, three weak-hitting lefties. For Coke, a guy who’s faced tight situations in meaningful games, it should have been a cakewalk. It was anything but.

Alex Gordon bunted the first pitch back to Coke, but the latter hung on too long and allowed Gordon to reach and Mark Teahen to reach second. Anderson handed Coke instant atonement with a bouncer right to him, but Coke again muffed the play, this time throwing way behind Derek Jeter and into center. Teahen scored and the Royals had runners on second and third with one out.

The lead lost, Coke got ahead of Maier 0-2, and again got a grounder right back to him. Gordon had already broken for home, but Coke paid no mind. He fired over to first as if there were two outs. The announcers couldn’t believe it, the crowd couldn’t believe it, and the replay showed that Molina couldn’t believe it. Coke had three consecutive plays and managed to botch each one. What should have been an easy appearance turned into a two-run deficit.

Had the game any real meaning, maybe Coke wouldn’t have even been in. Girardi pulled A.J. Burnett after recording the first out of the seventh and having thrown 108 pitches. It was one of A.J.’s better performances. He allowed six baserunners, but kept the Royals at bay with his favorite weapon, the curveball. It helped him strike out eight. With 6.1 innings of one-run ball, three walks, three hits, and eight strikeouts, I’d say Burnett had himself a fine game.

The Yankees used four pitchers last night, and Coke was the standout disappointment. Dave Robertson came out for the eighth and retired the first two batters he faced, including one strikeout, before walking the third batter. That was apparently his limit, as Girardi went with Bruney to finish things off. He allowed a hit and walked a guy, but also fanned two Royals and didn’t allow a run to score. He also had the benefit of Jerry Hairston, who turned a pop up bunt into a double play, teaching rookie Josh Anderson a lesson that will stick with him.

The story of the ninth inning dates back to Sunday. Trey Hillman’s team was up 4-1 against the Twins, and Zack Greinke was in line for the win. Instead of taking a chance with one of his unpredictable setup men, Hillman went to closer Joakim Soria for two. It paid off, but after 46 pitches Soria apparently needed a few days off. He surely wasn’t available last night, given Hillman’s decisions.

Taking the hill to preserve the one-run lead was Kyle Farnsworth. Signed to replace Tom Gordon in 2006, Farnsworth was a disaster from the start. Only when he hit a streak of semi-reliability were the Yanks able to deal him, in a contract swap with the Tigers for Pudge Rodriguez. Both players were horrible to finish out the year, but that didn’t stop Royals GM Dayton Moore from handing Farnsworth a two-year, $9 million contract. Had he waited, he could have had Fanrnsworth for a song later that winter.

With one out in the ninth, Frankie Cervelli bounced one back up the middle. It was out of Farnsworth’s reach, and Alberto Callaspo couldn’t get a handle on it. Eric Hinske pinch hit for Ramiro Pena, and it looked like he wanted the walk-off right there, putting his home run swing on the first pitch but missing. As Farnsworth is apt to do, he missed with the next two pitches and then gave Hinske something he could hit. The ball landed in right, and Cervelli hustled to third. The walk-off was already in the air.

For a guy who can’t hit with runners in scoring position, Robinson Cano sure has driven in a lot of runs lately. After a grand slam last night he got another chance in a tight spot — tight, at least, in the context of this one game. He unloaded on a 3-0 pitch, but just missed. It was deep enough to score Cervelli and tie the game, though. Blown save, Farnsworth.

The last thing the team wanted last night was to go into extra innings. Everything’s clinched. They’d already used a ton of their bench players. I’m sure the regulars just wanted to get on with it. Eric Hinske must have felt that vibe. Otherwise, why would he have have tried to steal second with two outs? Not only did he make it, but he also scampered into third on an errant throw.

The Royals decided they’d rather face Juan Miranda than Johnny Damon, but at that point it didn’t seem to matter. The Yanks were walking off with that win one way or another. Miranda hit a grounder back to Farnsworth, but it was just hard enough to bounce off the pitcher’s shins and into foul territory. The Yanks swarmed from the dugout just as Miranda touched first, and the Yankees had recorded their 15th walk-off victory.

That was a lot of writing for a meaningless game, eh? Well, sometimes big things happen in the least likely games. Coke’s blunders, A.J.’s solid performance, the late-inning heroics. It added up to another quality game in a time when they’re supposed to be boring. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Yankees: the team that can make even the most drab game a thriller.

Categories : Game Stories

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Sep

Another good start by A.J. further alleviates concern

Posted by: Joseph Pawlikowski | Comments (38)

After Andy Pettitte finished the sixth inning on Monday, there was a sense of relief. He was going on nine days’ rest in an attempt to rest his fatigued shoulder, something that concerned anyone with a stake in the Yankees’ chances. Andy passed his test, and will have two more tune-up starts before the playoffs. Next up on the checklist: A.J. Burnett. After a few rough starts in the past two months he’s looked good in his last couple of starts, helping ease concern.

As with Pettitte’s start, A.J.’s latest start wasn’t his best. He didn’t make it out of the sixth, allowing 10 baserunners along the way. But he worked out of trouble most of the time, using a sharp curveball to keep the Angels hitters off-balance. Burnett ended the day with 11 strikeouts, a sign that he had his best stuff. He also threw about 65 percent strikes, a good sign for his control, though the three walks don’t help that case. Of the Angels’ seven hits, only two were for extra bases.

We’ve seen Burnett at his best this season. He’s had stretches — well, one notable stretch — of absolute dominance. Unfortunately, he’s also had skids where it seems a team of David Ecksteins can rock him. He had a few of the latter at the end of August and into September, but over his past two starts A.J. has been much better. Jose Molina thinks it’s his last four starts, noting that one bad pitch, the grand slam to Brian Roberts, tainted Burnett’s start against the Orioles. In any case, his recent outings help the Yankees brass sleep a bit easier over the season’s final week and a half.

This doesn’t completely erase the concern. If we’ve learned anything from Burnett this season, anything can happen in any given start. Bad A.J. might show up and give up seven runs over four innings. Good A.J. might show up and dominate through seven. Or we might get that happy medium, the six-inning, three-run A.J. that walks a few too many guys but limits the damage. What alleviates the concern is that A.J. isn’t going into the postseason riding a losing streak.

It’s hard to believe, but Burnett has just one more start in the 2009 season, the middle game of the Kansas City series. The Yanks might juggle, starting Burnett on the season’s final day so he doesn’t have a huge gap between his final one and his first playoff start. If A.J. looks anything like he did yesterday or last Friday, it will go a long way in boosting confidence in the team heading to the playoffs.

Next up on the checklist: Joba Chamberlain. The team’s fourth starter draws the Red Sox on Friday and then the Royals on the 30th before packing it in for the regular season. How he looks in those two starts could determine whether the Yankees take the long or the short ALDS, though it seems they’re preparing for the long series. Joba would not pitch until the ALCS, meaning he’d pitch a maximum two games in the playoffs. That eases concern right off the bat, no?

Categories : Pitching

Comments (38)

Sep

Burnett strong as Kennedy returns in series win

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak | Comments (255)

If I told you that the Yanks would win a game in Anaheim with Jerry Hairston, Jr., Shelley Duncan, Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner and Jose Molina all in the same lineup, would you believe me? What if I told you that Damaso Marte, Jonathan Albaladejo, Phil Coke and Ian Kennedy would be called upon to get a combined seven outs in the middle of the affair? What if I added that the Yanks hadn’t won a series in Anaheim since May 2004?

In a turn of events sure to confound those fans who are convinced that the Yankees can’t win a game in Angels Stadium, the Bombers’ C lineup and their C bullpen corps downed the Angels today 3-2. Robinson Cano, struggling all year with runners in scoring position, came through with a huge hit, and A.J. Burnett struck out 11 in 5.2 strong innings of work. Ian Kennedy gave us all a heart attack but held down the eighth in his return to the Majors. With their victory, the Yanks saw their Magic Number drop to 5 and their lead above the Red Sox increase to a temporary 6.5.

For the first few innings, the Scott Kazmir/A.J. Burnett pitching duel lived up to its billing. While the Angels left a man on base in every inning of the game, Burnett had the K pitch working this afternoon. He was sitting between 95 and 97 for most of the game and recorded 11 of his 17 outs by the strike out. With that stuff, the runners on base won’t score.

The Yankees broke through first, finally getting to Kazmir in fourth. While Jerry Hairston, Jr., struck out, Mark Teixeira doubled, and Hideki Matsui walked. Shelley Duncan lined a single just over Chone Figgins’ glove to left, and because Teixeira started back to second when it seemed as though Figgins would make the play, Juan Rivera gunned him down at the plate. With two outs, Robinson Cano and his struggles with runners in scoring position came to the plate, he lined a two-out, two-run single to left and advanced on the throw. Melky Cabrera would drive Cano in with a double, and those three runs would be all the Yanks would need.

In the bottom of the fifth, Burnett ran into a spot of trouble. Mike Napoli singled, and Chone Figgins doubled. With two on and no one out, Burnett bore down. He struck out Erick Aybar, and Robinson Cano ranged far to his left to snare a Bobby Abreu ground ball. A run would score, but Burnett pitched out of the inning.

In the sixth, the bullpen would take over. After Burnett allowed another run to score, Damaso Marte retired Figgins. An inning later, Jonathan Albaladejo would take over, but his stay was short-lived. After a double, Phil Coke came in and struck out Kendry Morales. Coke has lost seven pounds over the last two days with a bad stomach bug, but he got a huge out with the tying run in scoring position.

One of the stories of the game around in the 8th. With Al Aceves and Phil Hughes unavailable and Brian Bruney in the dog house, Ian Kennedy came in for his return to the Bigs after aneurysm surgery. He seemed nervous and struggled with his control, loading the bases on a hit by pitch and two walks. But he pitched around it. He got the first out when Juan Rivera lined to Ramiro Peña at third and struck out Maicer Izturis with two on. With the bases loaded, Erick Aybar flew out to Shelley Duncan. Threat over.

In the 9th, Rivera nailed down the game, and all was right with the Yanks. A.J. had another strong start, and Joe will look at his resurgence in the morning. The Yanks knocked another game off the Magic Number counter and have now won three of their last four against Anaheim. The Yanks are sitting pretty.

Hairston Injury Update
Jerry Hairston left the game in the 7th when he felt his wrist pop, and PeteAbe speculates that Hairston’s injury could be serious. Apparently, Hairston first injured his wrist while with the Reds and received an MRI and cortisone shot ten days ago. He will have another scan tomorrow. I wouldn’t expect much from him for the rest of the year, but then again, I wasn’t really expecting much from him anyway.

Feel free to make this an Open Thread. Talk about the game. Talk about Kennedy for the 8th. Talk about the long wait until the Friday night game against the Red Sox. Just play nice.

Categories : Game Stories

Comments (255)

Sep

Setting up the playoff rotation

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak | Comments (98)

With the Rangers’ loss to the Mariners last night, the Yanks’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot dropped to nine and their Magic Percentage hit 23.7. No longer are we worried that the Yanks won’t make the playoffs.

To that end, the Yankees can begin to set their postseason rotation. While their top three pitchers all have the ability to throw gems, the Yankees have to ensure that their pitchers are both ready for the postseason and well-rested for the postseason. We’ve seen A.J. Burnett struggle lately, and while Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia are rolling, keeping these two horses fresh and feeling good are of utmost importance right now.

If we take a look at the Yanks’ final 18 games and the way the pitching rotation shapes down, it appears as though the Yanks won’t have to juggle the starts. Take a look:

Date	Game	Pitcher
Sept. 11	vs. Bal	Pettitte
Sept. 12	vs. Bal	Burnett
Sept. 13	vs. Bal	Sabathia
Sept. 14	vs. LAA	Chamberlain
Sept. 15	vs. Tor	Gaudin
Sept. 16	vs. Tor	Pettitte
Sept. 17	Off Day
Sept. 18	@Sea	Burnett
Sept. 19	@Sea	Sabathia
Sept. 20	@Sea	Chamberlain
Sept. 21	@LAA	Gaudin
Sept. 22	@LAA	Pettitte
Sept. 23	@LAA	Burnett
Sept. 24	Off Day
Sept. 25	vs. Bos	Sabathia
Sept. 26	vs. Bos	Chamberlain
Sept. 27	vs. Bos	Gaudin
Sept. 28	vs. KC	Pettitte
Sept. 29	vs. KC	Burnett
Sept. 30	vs. KC	Sabathia
Oct. 1	Off Day
Oct. 2	vs. TB	Chamberlain
Oct. 3	vs. TB	Gaudin
Oct. 4	vs. TB	Pettitte
Oct. 5	Off Day
Oct. 6	Off Day
Oct. 7	ALDS (A) 1	Sabathia
Oct. 8	ALDS (B) 1	Sabathia
Oct. 9	LDS 2	Pettitte/Burnett
Oct. 10	Off Day
Oct. 11	ALDS 3	Burnett/Pettitte

What jumps out at me is the number of off-days the Yanks have until the playoffs begin. This is, in reality, one of their hidden advantages right now. While the Yankees have 18 games left until the ALDS, the Red Sox, Angels and Tigers all have 20 each to play. A well-rested pitching staff can be a big weapon in the postseason, and by taking advantage of the days off and a comfortable lead, the Yanks stand to have just that.

So if the Yankees keep their pitchers on the current rotation, the team doesn’t have to change a thing to line everyone up for the postseason. Should we be worried, though, about pitchers getting too much rest? While last year, CC Sabathia threw three straight starts, including his NLDS Game 1 start, on three days of rest, this year, CC could be starting game 1 on six or even seven day’s rest. If Pettitte gets the Game 2 ball, he’ll have a full four days and Burnett will have 11 days off. If Burnett gets the Game 2 ball, he’ll have eight days off and Pettitte six.

The Yankees will probably want to go with Pettitte in Game 2 if the game is at Yankee Stadium because lefties enjoy a bit of advantage at the new park as they did the old. With that in mind, the team could juggle the rotation later in the season. Sergio Mitre or even Alfredo Aceves could take a spot start to make sure Burnett and Sabathia aren’t throwing in the playoffs after an extended layoff.

I, though, would rather see the team gives these guys some rest. With three starts left, Sabathia won’t approach his 250 innings he threw last year, but he should reach 230 IP. Burnett will probably top 200 innings for the second year in a row, and it will be the first time in his career he has reached the double century mark in back-to-back season. Rest at the end of the year can only help them.

Of course, if these are the Yanks’ most pressing concerns, they’re in good shape for the stretch drive. They will live and die by their pitching in October, and keeping everyone feeling good now will pay off next month.

Categories : Playoffs

Comments (98)

Sep

Bad inning does in Yanks

Posted by: Joseph Pawlikowski | Comments (60)

We’ve seen both Good A.J. and Bad A.J. in various starts throughout the season, but rarely do we glimpse both in the same. That’s what we got today. Bad A.J. was as bad as he gets. Good A.J. was good for about four innings, but those came after Bad A.J. had staked the Orioles to a sizable lead. Combine that with a flat offense, and it’s a recipe for a loss.

Things looked optimistic from the outset. A.J. got a little help from a double play ball to escape the first, and the Yanks offense went to work. It wasn’t overpowering. Just a soft liner to left by Jeter, a steal of second, a bunt over to third, and a sac fly. They’d probably need more, but it was a good start. A-Rod tried to keep it going with a double, but the Nick Swisher couldn’t get a base hit to bring him home. That’ll happen.

Burnett wasted no time in giving back the lead, as Nolan Reimold took him deep to left field. It was an absolute fat pitch, one a hitter like Reimold, the rookie leader in home runs, is going to park more often than not. With that out of the way, maybe A.J. could just work through the lineup and hope the Yanks offense could put up a few more against Matusz. That was not to be, on either account.

After striking out Luke Scott, a walk and three straight singles plated another run and left the bases loaded. Brian Roberts then dealt the decisive blow, sending a pitch into the Yanks bullpen and putting his team out in front 6-1. A.J. managed to get the next two batters to end the inning, and in fact retired eight straight after the homer. Too bad it’s impossible to erase those runs from the board.

In the course of those eight straight, Burnett lucked out a couple of times. In the third Luke Scott and Matt Wieters both seemed to just miss pitches, flying out deep to Jerry Hairston and Melky Cabrera. It wasn’t until the fourth that he really settled down, and even then he had some trouble in the fifth, surrendering a leadoff double to Brian Roberts. He’d settle down and finish the inning unscathed.

Seven innings, six runs is not a good line by any measure. Burnett let one bad inning ruin an otherwise pretty damn good start. He pitched through the seventh, and in innings other than the second he allowed just three men to reach base. He kept his pitch count down, throwing just 108 pitches in those seven innings, which is all the more remarkable because he threw 42 in the second. He issued only two walks, though he managed to strike out only four.

This kind of start, of course, will not fly in the playoffs. It won’t fly in any kind of meaningful situation. Thankfully, the Yankees are still well out in front in the AL East and can afford a few bad games, even if they’re against the last place team in said division. Better now than in October. And, again, at least there were some positives to take from the game, even though the general outcome was starkly negative.

After the manufactured run in the first, the Yanks offense flailed against Brian Matusz. After A-Rod’s double in the first, they didn’t pick up a hit until Teixeira singled in the sixth. They didn’t put a runner on second until an inning later, and didn’t score again until the ninth, when they staged a mini rally that came up far short. But, as Paul O’Neill likes to say, they showed some fight in a blowout. Let’s see if they can build off that tomorrow.

The Yanks look to avoid their first sweep since early May tomorrow afternoon, as CC Sabathia goes against Jeremy Guthrie. I’d rather look forward to that one than harp on this one.

Categories : Game Stories

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Sep

Made from the best Stuff on Earth

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak | Comments (18)

Stuff. We hear about it all the time. This pitcher has great stuff. But does anyone really know what that means? In an effort to quantify stuff, Jeremy Greenhouse at The Baseball Analysts used pitch f/x data to generate a discussion on Stuff. He employed velocity, horizontal pitch movement and vertical movement to figure out which pitchers are nasty, and our man with the pie A.J. Burnett emerged as the pitcher with the best stuff in the Majors.

There is, of course, a second part to this equation. Do the pitchers with the best stuff make the most of it? As we’ve seen from Burnett this year, the answer is obviously no. Burnett doesn’t crack the list of pitchers with the best stuff who have been tops at run prevention over the last three years. Not surprisingly, that honor belongs to Roy Halladay in the AL and Brandon Webb in the NL.

Categories : Analysis, Asides

Comments (18)

Sep

Yanks jump on Rays early, take nightcap 11-1

Posted by: Joseph Pawlikowski | Comments (70)

With both Hughes and Mo pitching in the day half of yesterday’s doubleheader, the Yankees had limited options in the back end of their bullpen for the night half. The best solution was to put up a crooked number, and that’s just what the Yankees did. They put up an eight spot in the third inning, and that was more than enough for A.J. Burnett and the recently recalled members of the bullpen. They took down the Rays with relative ease.

Things didn’t start out so smoothly for Burnett, and his recent struggles amplified the effect. Two doubles, one just out of Nick Swisher’s reach, led to a run, and then Burnett infuriatingly walked the next hitter, Pat Burrell. Further frustration mounted when Burnett walked B.J. Upton, always a threat to steal a bag, to lead off the second. But from there, Burnett cruised.

Burnett had only one 1-2-3 inning, but after Longoria’s double only one Ray reached second base, and that was the result of a walk and a fielder’s choice. The Rays managed just four hits in A.J.’s six innings. They did draw three walks, but none of those runners came around to score. Most encouragingly from Burnett, he struck out eight, a sign that he had his stuff. He’ll need it as the Yankees march down the stretch into the playoffs.

In the third the Yanks would pick up all the runs they’d need for the game, and maybe tomorrow’s game, too. They plated eight runs on eight hits and two walks. Two of the hits came from Jose Molina, who had a three for three night with two walks. Mark Teixeira put the Yanks up 5-1 with a rally killing three-run shot. The Yanks were able to mount another rally, though, bringing home three more. Strangely, Derek Jeter caused two outs in the inning.

Not that it means much in the context of the game itself, but Derek Jeter failed to pick up a hit in either end of the doubleheader, and still trails Lou Gehrig by three hits. He’ll get them soon enough. It just wasn’t in the cards today — the only doubleheader in his career in which Jeter has played both ends and failed to pick up a hit in either.

Apparently Jeter lent his hitting skill to Jose Molina, who reached base five times for the first time in his career. Even stranger: Jeter was the only starter to not pickup a hit. This is even stranger still because many of the starters, Jeter included, took an early seat because of the enormous lead.

Mike Dunn combated some control issues in the ninth, issuing two walks, but he overcame it without allowing a run, closing the game and bringing the Yanks’ magic number down to a Fordian 16. The series picks up again tomorrow with Chad Gaudin taking on David Price.

Categories : Game Stories

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Sep

Bursting the Burnett bubble

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak | Comments (140)

It is, I find, sometimes easy to forget that A.J. Burnett is making $16.5 million this year. He’s not the big dog in the starting rotation; that honor is reserved for CC. He doesn’t have the same Yankee cachet as Derek, A-Rod or Mark Teixeira either. And yet, there he is, pulling down a check for $634,615.39 every two weeks.

What is not easy to forget is how poorly A.J. Burnett has pitched lately. Since throwing a seven-inning, two-hit, zero-earned run game against Tampa Bay on July 27, Burnett has been nothing better than medicore with starts careening from good to awful. Over his last seven starts spanning 42.2 innings, Burnett is 0-4 with a 6.54 ERA. While he’s striking out a batter an inning, he has issued 19 walks and given up seven home runs. Opponents are hitting .287/.361/.456 against him, and that includes 7.2 innings of one-hit ball he threw against Boston in the 15-inning game on August 7.

As the Yankees hit the stretch drive — note the new Magic Number counter in the right-hand sidebar — the team is going to look to Burnett to pitch out of his funk. Right now, their pitching hopes rest on CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, and an effective Burnett would do wonders for this team’s October chances. Based on his season so far, though, there is hope that he could snap out of it and reel off a great run of starts.

With his start last night, Burnett has now thrown 27 games this year, and he season breaks down neatly into thirds. Through his first nine starts, he was bad. At just 2-2 through May 22, he had thrown 58 innings with an ERA of 5.28. He had struck out 50 but had walked 27 and allowed 10 home runs. Then, he turned up his game. Over his next 11 starts, he went 69.1 innings with a 2.08 ERA. He was 8-2 in that stretch and struck out 63. His walk total — 36 — was still too high, but he limited the longballs to just five.

Now, Bad Burnett, winless since July ended, is back, and Jason Rosenberg at IIATMS wonders if this streakiness is what Burnett will be. He writes:

Has any big ticket free agent been more under-the-radar, more in-the-shadows than AJ Burnett? If any other team, and I mean ANY, had signed Burnett and he posted the numbers he has thus far on the Yanks, is there any doubt there’d be some “overrated” or “bust” chatter? Yet, drafting behind CC, Teix and the rest of the shiny stars on the Yanks, AJ has been able to escape the scorn of the NY media. Does he get a free pass due to his cream pie surprises and he seems to be well-liked by all?…

What about his “value”? According to FanGraphs, AJ’s WAR is just 2.4, his lowest in years. Granted, we’re not done with the season, but AJ’s not delivering on his promise. And as far as dollar value earned, he’s at $10.9m (well below his annual salary of over $16m and prorated season-to-date salary paid of $13.6m). By comparison, AJ’s WAR last year was 5.7 and his dollar value earned was $25.5m.

Waaaaay back when AJ was signed, I called him an “expensive station car”, an analogy which several people seemed to enjoy. The smartest thing AJ did (besides having that opt-out option and having a career year at the same time) was not letting his ego get in the way of the decision process. He knew he wasn’t going to be the top dog on the Yanks staff and was seemingly OK with this fact (getting an $80m+ contract can do that). Not too dissimilar to his time in TOR when he thrived behind Doc Halladay or even in FLA behind Beckett. He hasn’t been asked to be the horse who carries the club. Merely be very good. He hasn’t been very good very often (though, at times he has) and he hasn’t yet earned his payroll. But he’s gone out there every turn and given the Yanks 6+ innings of decent performance. How would he have handled being expected to be The Ace of any other team?

Jason brings up some interesting questions to consider, but while those make for a good thought experiment, the reality is far simpler: The Yankees will need A.J. Burnett to rediscover his touch from June and July that made him one of the best pitchers in the AL for 11 starts. All of the walk-off cream pies in the world can’t disguise the fact that, right now, the Yankees aren’t getting their money’s worth out of their second starter.

The strike outs are there; the control and poise on the mound are slipping away. When push comes to shove, the Yankees will put their season into the hands of Burnett, a player who numerous commentators have noted will be making his first post-season start this year. Hopefully, Good A.J. will show up when the time comes.

Categories : Pitching

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