Archive for Alex Rodriguez
Imagining the Yanks without A-Rod
Posted by: | CommentsYou don’t need me to tell you that the 2009 Yankees were a very good baseball club. We all know how their season ended. We all know that they won a Major League-leading 103 games and captured those final key 11 postseason victories by the time the first week in November rolled around. Been there, done that.
Let me tell you though about one of the players who helps make the Yankees as good as they are. For 28 games at the start of the season, the Yankees were without one Alex Rodriguez, their high-priced and sometimes high-maintenance third baseman. Through those 28 games, the Yanks were 13-15, spinning their wheels and going nowhere fast. After A-Rod’s return, the team went 90-44. By the end of the season, the Yanks were 82-42 in games in which A-Rod appeared and 21-17 without him. That turnaround might not be only A-Rod’s doing, but he was no small part of the Yanks’ success.
Yesterday, in an interview with YES, A-Rod spoke at length about his 2009 campaign. Even at the steroid revelations, the year started on a bad note for him as he needed a major hip procedure. For A-Rod, the comparison to other players cut down in their primes by bad hips seemed apt. Albert Belle and Bo Jackson were both destined for greater things than they achieved when hip conditions forced them off the field.
“I think I grew up a lot, both on and off the field. Staring at retirement right in the face, kind of like Bo Jackson. That’s the first thing I thought of,” he said on YES. “It was a commitment that I wanted to do for the team, and it was very scary. I knew I was putting the rest of my career at risk, but I felt that with the team at hand, it was a risk worth taking.”
A-Rod’s retiring at 34 is an idea no Yankee wants to consider. That would have been a disastrous development for the Yankees. Overall last year, A-Rod was a 4.4 WAR player, and the swing from those replacing A-Rod to A-Rod was approximately 5 wins. Although the Yanks are still good enough to have won without him, A-Rod is one of those players who makes the rest of the lineup better. His return coincided with Mark Teixeira’s breaking out of a slump, and his presence took pressure off the rest of the lineup.
The Yankees could have filled the A-Rod hole easily this off-season by pursuing Adrian Beltre. The Red Sox’s new third baseman is a far superior defender than A-Rod ever has been at the Hot Corner, but except for Beltre’s insane 2004 campaign, A-Rod has been the better offensive player of the two. A-Rod’s three-year combined WAR is 20; Beltre’s is short of 10.
Now, A-Rod is primed for a big 2010. He didn’t need the second surgery, and he says his hip is feeling great. Outside of some rather mundane Kate Hudson developments, he hasn’t made headlines this winter, and I’m glad he’s around. He shed himself of the clutch burden and proved himself in the eyes of some of the game’s most judgmental fans. The alternative — life without A-Rod — is much, much worse.
Sunday Links: A-Rod, Farm System, Jack Z.
Posted by: | CommentsWe’re all just running out the clock until the Jets take the field in Indianapolis, so here’s some links to help you pass the time.
- Alex Rodriguez received the Babe Ruth Award at the BBWAA Awards Dinner last night, which is given to the player who performed the best in the World Series. “Postseason MVP. Wow,” said A-Rod. “What’s next, the good guy award?” I laughed.
- Sky Andrecheck at Baseball Analysts examines Baseball America’s prospect rankings through the years, and discovers that yeah, a team’s ranking is a good predictor of future success. Check it out, very interesting stuff.
- David Laurila at Baseball Prospectus interviewed Mariners’ GM Jack Zduriencik. It’s free to everyone, and it’s a great look at one of the brightest minds in the game. I highly recommend it.
A-Rod sought out Gaborik for reassurance about hip surgery
Posted by: | CommentsVia Mark Herrmann, Yanks’ third baseman Alex Rodriguez sought out current Rangers’ star Marian Gaborik last March for reassurance about having the torn labrum in his hip surgically repaired. Gaborik, who had his hip repaired by Dr. Marc Philippon (A-Rod’s doc) last January while playing for the Minnesota Wild, spoke with Alex face-to-face in Vail about what to expect.
“It was the doctor who did everything,” said Gaborik. “But I know that for myself, it was always good to hear from somebody who had it done and got through things. And [A-Rod] had a great year.” Gaborik said the two haven’t spoke since.
After missing about three months total due to the injury, Gaborik signed a five year, $37.5M deal with the Rangers during the summer (that’s a huge deal in the NHL). He’s currently among the league’s top five in both goals and total points, so it’s not like A-Rod’s the only world class athlete to come back from this procedure and excel.
The best 3-4 combo in the game
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees made two key changes from 2008 to 2009. First, they upgraded the pitching staff, adding two strikeout guys to the rotation. Second, they upgraded the middle of their order from merely good to world-beating powerhouse. Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez ranked among the best 3-4 combinations in baseball last season, and with A-Rod back to full health they could be in for an even bigger season in 2010. Watching them come to the plate every two innings or so should be a joy.
Are A-Rod and Tex the best 3-4 combo in the game? The staff at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch try to answer the question. Their team has quite a combo itself in Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Most of them, however, concede the title to A-Rod and Tex — though as expected they emphasize RBI and power numbers. So, before we determine the best 3-4 hitters in the game, we should establish what makes a good 3-4 combo.
Power plays a large part in the middle of any order. The 3-4 hitters are expected to drive in runs, and doubles and home runs perform that task efficiently. They also need to possess on-base skills. Since even the best power guys hit for extra bases in fewer than 1/6 of their plate appearances, and since they also hit near the top of the order, they need to get on base to give the lower guys a chance to drive them in. Plus, more men on base means turning over the lineup more frequently, which means more plate appearances for the 3-4 hitters.
A note on the expectation of 3-4 hitters to drive in runs. This does not mean that RBI accurately measures a No. 3 or No. 4 hitter. In fact, it’s a pretty crappy measure. RBI for this hitters depend almost exclusively on production from the top of the lineup. For example, Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus most frequently hit ahead of Albert Pujols last season. Schumaker posted a solid .364 OBP, but Rasmus was well below average at .307. That combo wasn’t nearly on base as much as Jeter and Damon, with their .406 and .365 OBPs. Teixeira and A-Rod simply had more opportunities than Pujols and, later, Holliday.
(Though give Pujols credit here. Despite having a far inferior top of the order, he still drove in more runs than Teixeira. Such is the greatness of El Hombre.)
When measuring the value of a 3-4 combo, we should look for sheer offensive production. I’m not sure I’d even adjust any of the numbers for park, position, or anything else, though I’m open to arguments to the contrary. Again, we’re looking for the most productive, most dominant 3-4 combo. Position doesn’t much matter in this case. It might have effects on the rest of the line up — i.e., players at power positions can hit further down in the order and elongate the lineup — but we’re just concentrating on the 3-4 hitters.
As I work through this, I realize that we’re facing two questions right now. First is of the best 3-4 combination in 2009. The other is of the best 3-4 combination in theory. In other words, if everyone involved has a good year, which combination will produce at the highest level? Let’s take the first, easier question first. We can accomplish that by looking at the players’ times on base and extra base hits. Why counting stats? Because when you’re measuring the most productive players, time in the lineup counts. And, again, I don’t want to use WAR here, because it counts defense and makes positional adjustments.
| On-Base | XBH | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Teixeira | 259 | 85 | ||||||||||||
| Alex Rodriguez | 187 | 48 |
| On-Base | XBH | |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Utley | 249 | 63 |
| Ryan Howard | 247 | 86 |
While this duo did outperform Tex and A-Rod during the 2009 regular season, I’m sure a healthy season from A-Rod would even them, and perhaps put the Yankees ahead. Extrapolating A-Rod’s numbers by 25 percent jibes with this. But, make no mistake, in 2009 the Philly duo was more productive.
| On-Base | XBH | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Braun | 260 | 77 |
| Prince Fielder | 287 | 84 |
Without a doubt, Braun and Fielder were the most productive 2009 3-4 combination. While Teixeira reigns as the best No. 3 hitter in this group — though Pujols as a No. 3 hitter is clearly superior — Fielder destroys the competition for the cleanup spot. Placed back to back in a batting order, they were unmatched in 2009.
Projecting the best 3-4 combination presents a bit more difficult task. Not only do we have to project numbers, but we also have to project health. It’s no simple task, and I see no easy way to accomplish it. We could average production over the past three years, or we could average together the available projection systems. If anyone wants to take on that task, be my guest. I’ll post it as an addendum to this post.
Using completely unscientific methods, I have a hard time seeing any combination dethroning Braun an Fielder. Not only were they the most productive 3-4 combination in 2009, but they did it at age 25. True, we can expect some fluctuation in their numbers this season, but the same is true of all players. Since they’re both in their physical peaks, however, we shouldn’t count on any significant downward trend.
That’s not to dismiss A-Rod/Tex, Pujols/Holliday, or Utley/Howard. All four combinations produce at an elite level, and a career year out of any one player could tip the balance in 2010. Again, based on my completely unscientific weighing of past numbers, here’s how I’d rank them.
1. Braun – Fielder
Tremendous hitters, and only 26 years old in 2010. Could easily produce another monster year.
2. Pujols – Holliday
Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and Holliday has posted some excellent seasons (and also killed the ball upon arrival in St. Louis). Even if he falls back to his 2008 numbers, Pujols should be enough to carry the group.
3. Teixeira – Rodriguez
A healthy season from A-Rod could put him in Pujols territory. Combine that with the beast that is Teixeira, and you have a powerhouse that rivals Ortiz-Ramirez of the mid-00s.
4. Utley – Howard
The lowest of this crew is still among the best in baseball. Teixeira has outproduced Utley, and a healthy A-Rod can go toe to toe with Howard.
Another group of not-too-shabby 3-4 combinations: Mauer/Morneau, Beltran/Wright, Kemp/Ramirez, Martinez/Youkilis.
Photo credits: Braun (AP Photo/Jeff Curry), Fielder (AP Photo/Michael Conroy), Pujols (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File), Holliday (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson), Teixeira (AP Photo/Henny Ray Abrams), Rodriguez (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi), Utley (AP Photo/Eric Gay), Howard (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
By the Decade: Better off with him
Posted by: | CommentsOn a busy day in the Yankee Universe, we continue our look at the Yankees By the Decade with a stop at the Hot Corner. For the last six seasons, A-Rod has owned that position, and he is clearly the third baseman of the decade. It’s not even close.
| AB | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | GDP | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rodriguez | 3227 | 971 | 158 | 5 | 229 | 692 | 482 | 49 | 75 | 721 | 89 | .301 | .401 | .566 |
| Scott Brosius | 895 | 231 | 45 | 2 | 29 | 112 | 78 | 3 | 7 | 156 | 27 | .258 | .320 | .410 |
| Robin Ventura | 716 | 181 | 29 | 0 | 35 | 128 | 124 | 7 | 2 | 152 | 22 | .253 | .362 | .440 |
| Aaron Boone | 189 | 48 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 7 | .254 | .302 | .418 |
| E. Wilson | 117 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | .231 | .258 | .350 |
| Todd Zeile | 91 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | .198 | .286 | .341 |
| Ron Coomer | 83 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | .325 | .341 | .446 |
| Clay Bellinger | 81 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0 | .210 | .261 | .407 |
| Cody Ransom | 74 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 3 | .203 | .272 | .338 |
| W. Betemit | 66 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | .258 | .269 | .409 |
| Luis Sojo | 62 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | .177 | .227 | .210 |
| Miguel Cairo | 54 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | .204 | .259 | .296 |
| M. Ensberg | 54 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | .185 | .241 | .185 |
| Ramiro Pena | 47 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | .255 | .300 | .277 |
| A. Soriano | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | .154 | .185 | .423 |
| Andy Phillips | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | .160 | .192 | .160 |
| Jerry Hairston | 25 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | .360 | .484 | .440 |
| Nick Green | 25 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | .320 | .346 | .520 |
| Angel Berroa | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | .100 | .143 | .150 |
| A. Gonzalez | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .118 | .167 | .118 |
| Eric Hinske | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | .214 | .312 | .214 |
| Totals | 5908 | 1628 | 286 | 12 | 314 | 1058 | 748 | 59 | 95 | 1242 | 169 | .276 | .362 | .487 |
To get a sense of just how good A-Rod has been at third base, let’s look at some comparative numbers. For the table above, I used players who had played at least ten games at third base. Thus, Gary Sheffield’s brief 2004 cameo at the Hot Corner and other similarly misguided experiments from the past decade are not covered here. As it stands, A-Rod enjoyed 54.6 percent of the Yanks’ third base at-bats and around 55.8 percent of all plate appearances. My, how he delivered.
In those at-bats, A-Rod was responsible for 72.9 percent of all Yankee third base home runs, 64.4 percent of the walks and 83 percent of the intentional walks. He accounted for 65.4 percent of all third base RBIs, and without his stunning .301/.401/.566 line, Yankee third basemen hit .245/.313/.393. He simply towers above anyone else including old fan favorite Scott Brosius and 2003 hero Aaron Boone.
What is amazing though about this decade of A-Rod is how tumultuous it has been. It began with a near-trade to the Red Sox in late 2003 that fell apart over Boston’s reluctance to pony up the dough. After the proposed Manny-for-Alex swap fell through, the Yankees swooped in and landed A-Rod and his contract for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias. The Yanks were the only team that could afford A-Rod’s astronomical salary, and they gave up nothing too great in return.
For A-Rod, it was a tough adjustment to New York. He had a down-for-him year in 2004, hitting just 36 home runs with a line of .286/.375/.512. He was great in the ALDS against the Twins and then vanished, along with the rest of the team, in Games 4-7 against the Red Sox in the ALCS. Much as Javier Vazquez was dismissed from New York for his role in the collapse, A-Rod too bore the brunt of the blame, most notably for his slap play in Game 6.
He responded nicely in 2005 and won the first of his two Bronx MVP awards. He hit .321/.421/.610 with 48 home runs and 130 RBIs. Again, though, his post-season numbers were bad. In the ALDS, he went just 2 for 15. The following postseason, he went 1 for 14 in the Division Series, was dropped to eighth in the batting order and drew himself the Choker label.
In 2007, Good A-Rod showed up again, but the fans were wary. On the verge of opting out of his contract, A-Rod hit 54 home runs, drove in 156 and did nothing in October. As the Red Sox were about to win the World Series, he opted out of his contract, and the Yankees vowed never to deal with him again. Three weeks later, he was back in pinstripes for a record deal worth up to $305 million over ten years. The press hated him, and the fans were skeptical.
This past year, the fans finally embraced A-Rod. He notched his 12th straight year with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs by blasting two and driving in seven on the final day of the season, and his hot hitting carried over into the playoffs. Against the Twins, Angels and Phillies, A-Rod hit .365/.500/.808 with six home runs and 18 RBIs. As a decade begun with Scotty Bro and celebrated by Aaron Boone came to a close, Yankee fans had finally come to accept A-Rod as he should be, as the third base as the decade and as the team’s offensive star.
Despite early-season articles, despite sports writer consternation, the Yankees are truly better off with Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez. Make no mistake about it.
Quick Hits: Scheduling quirks and Kate Hudson
Posted by: | CommentsSo two quick notes that nearly got lost in the crush earlier today: MLB announced this afternoon that the Yankees and Red Sox will open the 2010 season on Sunday, April 4. The game will start at 8:05 p.m. and air on ESPN2. The average temperate for Boston on April 4 at 8 p.m. is around 42 degrees. What a brilliant move by Major League Baseball.
Finally, capping off a busy day of news came the worst development possible for the Yankees. This has nothing to do with a free agent signing or some big trade. No, this one is all about A-Rod for he and Kate Hudson have reportedly broken up. At this point, the Yanks might as well just forfeit the 2010 season for she was the only reason they won. It is truly a sad day in the Bronx.
Reliving the A-Rod trade
Posted by: | CommentsWhile most of us were business chowing down on turkey and stuffing and pie yesterday, Ben Nicholson-Smith revisited the Alfonso Soriano for Alex Rodriguez swap as part of his “Trades of the Decade” series at MLBTR. Texas also received shortstop Joaquin Arias, who was one of the Yanks’ best prospects at the time, in the deal. They selected him out of a pool of five minor leaguers that also included Jose Valdez and some Double-A second baseman named Robinson Cano.
I found out about the trade while watching TV when I was waiting for a table at Applebees (yeah yeah) with my then-girlfriend, and I remember my mind being completely blown. Where was he going to play? Was Jeter going to move off short? Who else did they give up? In a world before MLBTR and the internet at your fingertips, it was a complete shock and I couldn’t wait to get home to find out what the hell happened. Those were the days, when trades just happened and you had no idea what was coming.
That’s never happened before
Posted by: | CommentsUpdate: Once again, Baggarly is wrong. Thanks to commenter Alex for pointing it out. After escalators, Manny Ramirez was the highest paid player in 2004 and won the World Series. That’s twice now for Baggarly.
Because baseball loves its stats, and because the Elias Sports Bureau keeps every stat imaginable, we often hear off-beat statistical happenings. Player A is hitting .345 in the second half in night games, for instance. We also get historical milestones, such as, Player B was the first Panama-born player to record six straight outs in Game 6 of the World Series. Of the many that surfaced this year regarding the Yankees, one got more airtime than others: no team has won a World Series with a 35-year-old shortstop since 1955. Sure enough, it happened again in 2009.
The 2009 Yankees had another first-time-in-a-long-time milestone as well. According to Andrew Baggarly*, the last time the World Series champions also had the highest paid player in the game was the ‘86 Mets. They had Gary Carter at $2.8 million, less than a tenth of A-Rod’s 2009 salary. All of this is a friendly reminder to not think that just because something hasn’t happened in a while that there’s some causal reason for it.
Hat tip to Pinto for the pointers.
* I will never be able to hear Baggarly’s name and not think back to this report. He ran with an unconfirmed rumor that “Sabathia has declined the Yankees’ six-year, $140 million offer.” While that might have technically been true — Sabathia ended up signing for more — it was just horrible timing on Baggarly’s part. Cashman flew to San Francisco that very night and got to work on Sabathia’s contract.
The October (and November) of A-Rod
Posted by: | CommentsOne of the more obvious stories this October involved the redemption of Alex Rodriguez. Unfairly labeled a choker during the Yanks’ futile playoff runs over the last five seasons, A-Rod responded with an October for the ages. He hit .365/.500/.808 over 68 plate appearances with six home runs and 18 RBIs. He was probably the overall MVP of the playoffs, and the coverage has examined A-Rod’s complex relationship with, well, everyone.
In The Times, William Rhoden penned an excellent column on the redemption of A-Rod. After some shocking steroid revelations and Spring Training hip surgery, A-Rod was the black sheep of New York. But, as the narrative goes, he put that past behind him, toned down his Me-First approach to baseball and emerged a true team player.
Rhoden though questions those assumptions and that narrative. He points fingers at his fellow writers and reporters and wonders who exactly is responsible for the rehab of A-Rod.
Some speculated that it was the finality of his divorce, others that it was the tearful February news conference in Tampa with teammates looking on. Still others said the author of Rodriguez’s renaissance was Kate Hudson.
But A-Rod is not the one who has changed. He is the same guy. The Yankees’ lineup has changed. The addition of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher have made A-Rod more effective. The addition of the no-nonsense pitcher C. C. Sabathia and the effective A. J. Burnett has made the Yankees a tougher team over all.
The new view of Rodriguez is, on one level, a media-driven fan transformation that reached a peak heading into the postseason, when he suddenly began succeeding where he previously had failed.
Everyone loves redemption stories, but this transformation is more about fans’ desire to have a winning team than one man’s sea change. What’s troubling about the transformation story is that the root of it is winning. For all of our new, exciting ways of delivering games, one thing has remained constant: performance trumps just about everything. When it leads to profits, performance trumps everything.
Says Rhoden, “His clutch performances and now a championship have changed minds and attitudes.” He ends with quite the kicker as he wonders if A-Rod — formerly A-Fraud — was the phony or if the fans were or if the reporters were. It’s a question with no real answer, but I believe Rhoden speaks to the reporters and the talk radio hosts who kept pursuing the A-Fraud story and the fans who would boo him.
Today, Tyler Hissey at MVN’s Around the Majors began to answer Rhoden’s question. He eviscerated a Bill Madden column from February. The Daily News scribe alleged that for the Yanks to “remain true” to the organization’s “relentless pursuit of championships and the fierce protection of their brand,” in the wake of his steroid revelations, “they have no choice but to sever ties with Rodriguez.”
From an economics point of view, it never made sense to doubt A-Rod, and from a practical point of view, the Yankees weren’t going to cut ties with him. That doesn’t stop people such as Madden or Mike Francesa from blowing smoke. That doesn’t stop fans from booing him on an 0-for-4 day and toasting him after a six-home run effort en route to a World Series title.
Once upon a time, the narrative ruled A-Rod too expensive, too self-centered, too into his stats to win a World Series. Now that he has, A-Rod will just work toward his legacy. He has his ring; he has his championship; he has his great clutch October; and he has his fans. The Yankees have him now and for eight more seasons. For that, I will cheer him in redemption as I cheered him all year and since 2004.
RAB Info
Opening Day Countdown
13 more sleeps until Opening Day 2010.
Banner Design By
