Archive for Andy Pettitte
Pettitte throws four scoreless in latest minor league start
Posted by: | CommentsAndy Pettitte made his second minor league start today, throwing four shutout innings for the High-A Tampa Yankees at the home base, GMS Field. He allowed two singles, didn’t walk a batter, and struck out three. He also generated seven ground balls — one resulting in a double play — while not allowing anything to be hit in the air. Josh Norris spoke to a scout who was at the game, and relayed this report…
Scout at the game: Pettitte’s at 87-89, good command and movement to both sides. SL better than CB. Change is OK. Looks ready. #Yankees
— Josh Norris (@jnorris427) April 15, 2012
Same scout: Pettitte looks ready, but just needs to be stretched out. #Yankees.
— Josh Norris (@jnorris427) April 15, 2012
There’s no word on how many pitches Pettitte threw, but he was scheduled for 50 or so. The Yankees have Andy on a regular five-day schedule now, so he’ll likely make his next start on Friday and throw 65-70 pitches. They did give him an extra day of rest last time though, so maybe he’ll get pushed back to Sunday. Either way, Pettitte appears to be three or four starts away from being an option for the big league team, assuming all goes according to plan and he doesn’t run into any physical problems.
Pineda set to throw bullpen session
Posted by: | CommentsVia George King, right-hander Michael Pineda will throw a bullpen session on Tuesday. It appears that it will be his first time on a mound since being placed on the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis. Pineda threw a bunch of long toss last week and has been throwing off flat ground for a while. Joe Girardi recently said that he doesn’t expect him back this month.
In other news, King reports that Andy Pettitte will pitch for High-A Tampa tomorrow, his second minor league appearance. He threw three innings and 32 pitches for Tampa on Monday, so he got an extra day of rest between starts.
Pitching Updates: Pineda, Pettitte, Aardsma
Posted by: | CommentsGot a few quick updates on some injured and returning hurlers…
- Michael Pineda played catch yesterday for the first time since being diagnosed with shoulder tendinitis last week, and the good news is that he played catch again today. Joe Girardi said it’s “safe to say” he won’t be back in the bigs this month, however. [Erik Boland & Bryan Hoch]
- Andy Pettitte is not injured, and in fact it’s quite the opposite. He threw 45 pitches in a bullpen session today and is still on track to throw two innings in a minor league game on Monday. [Boland]
- David Aardsma threw a bullpen session today, his first since having Tommy John surgery last July. It doesn’t sound like much, but it is a significant step in the rehab process. [Aardsma]
Pettitte scheduled to appear in minor league game on Monday
Posted by: | CommentsVia Marc Carig and Joel Sherman, left-hander Andy Pettitte is going to remain in Tampa and is scheduled to throw two innings in a minor league game on Monday. He’ll pitch for High-A Tampa, who is on the road at Clearwater that day. It’s only a 20-minute trip, no big deal.
It appears as though Pettitte is on a normal five-day schedule and will increase his workload by one inning each time out. Typical Spring Training stuff. If he stays healthy and on schedule, he’ll get up to six inning by the end of April and become a big league option in early-May. That’s a big “if” though, remember we are talking about a 39-year-old pitcher who is coming off a year-long hiatus. Everything has gone well so far, let’s hope it continues.
Pettitte to pitch against Mets tomorrow
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday we heard that Andy Pettitte might appear in a minor league game this Thursday, but it turns out we’ll see him a little sooner. The Yankees announced today that Pettitte will thrown an inning against the Mets in Tampa tomorrow, the Yankees’ final exhibition game. Facing hitters is a significant step in Pettitte’s comeback attempt, and I am selfishly happy we’ll actually get to see it.
Pettitte prepping for possible minor league outing on Thursday
Posted by: | CommentsVia George King, Andy Pettitte could make his first minor league appearance this Thursday after throwing a 25-pitch bullpen session today. “I plan on pitching somehow Thursday for sure,” said Pettitte. “[A minor league game is] an option, anything is an option right now … Thursday is my day but I wish I could tell you exactly.”
High-A Tampa is playing at home that night, so it’s a pretty safe assumption that Pettitte would pitch in that game if he does get on the mound Thursday. He will probably only throw an inning or two, but it would be a significant step in his comeback attempt. Since Pettitte is on a minor league deal, he can make as many minor league appearances as he wants to get himself ready for the season. It’s not he’d be starting his 30-day clock on an injury rehab assignment or anything.
2012 Season Preview: Midseason Help
Posted by: | CommentsLast year we all expected the Yankees to go out and make a significant midseason move to bolster a questionable pitching staff, but that move never came. Starters Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova performed better than expected while David Robertson and call-up Hector Noesi emerged to shore up the bullpen when Joba Chamberlain and Rafael Soriano went down with elbow injuries. Eduardo Nunez performed well enough off the bench that no outside help was needed when Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez missed weeks at a time with lower body injuries.
That was the exception and not the rule, however. Most contenders need to go outside the organization to improve their roster over the course of the summer, and the 2012 Yankees don’t figure to be any different. Before they do that though, the club already has a trio of pitchers due to return at various points of the season to help boost their staff. All the midseason pitching help they need could end up coming from within.
Andy Pettitte (May-ish)
I have to admit, I didn’t think I would be writing about Pettitte’s return like, a week ago. The veteran southpaw decided to give it another go though, and now he just has to get himself back into playing shape over the next few weeks before returning to the rotation. The Yankees were very clear about that last part as well, Pettitte will be in the rotation as soon as he’s ready. The plan calls for six or eight weeks of “Spring Training,” which will surely include some minor league starts to get ready.
There’s no way of knowing how a near-40-year-old pitcher will return after a year-long hiatus, especially in the AL East. There are reasons to be skeptical about just how successful Pettitte can be this season, though I don’t think he would go through all this trouble if he didn’t think he could get back to being the guy he was just two years ago. Whether he can physically be that guy is another thing entirely, but it’s also possible that the year off does his body good. I have a hard time betting against Andy, but it will be some comeback if he gives the Yankees four or five strong months.
David Aardsma (mid-August)
The forgotten free agent pickup, the Yankees signed Aardsma to a ridiculously cheap one-year, $500k contract with a $500k club option for 2013 about a week into Spring Training. The 30-year-old right-hander didn’t pitch at all least season because of a torn labrum in his hip and later Tommy John surgery. He has his elbow procedure in late-July but comments from the team last month indicate that mid-August is a more realistic target for his return.
The Aardsma signing is geared more towards next season, but he could definitely help late in the year assuming all goes well during his rehab. He started to harness his power stuff (averaged 94.0 mph with the fastball) after taking over as the closer in Seattle, though he’s always been a high strikeout (9.6 K/9 and 25.9 K% during his two years with the Mariners) and high walk (4.4 BB/9 and 11.8 BB%) guy. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees extended his rehab a bit and didn’t call him up until the rosters expand on September 1st, but having a dirt cheap and experienced power bullpen arm in your back pocket for the late-season stretch drive sure is a nice luxury.
* * *
Joba was originally going to be included in this post because he was due to return from Tommy John surgery in mid-June, but that almost certainly will not happen following this morning’s news of his dislocated ankle. There is no timetable for his return just yet, and in fact they’re still awaiting test results to determine the full extent of the injury according to David Waldstein. Even if the Yankees hear the best possible news and there’s no further damage, they can’t count on Joba for anything this year. That’s a shame, and hopefully both Pettitte and Aardsma contribute a bit more.
Pettittef/x
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Welcome back, old friend. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty)
At this point the wonderful news of Andy Pettitte‘s return to the fold has already been covered to death, and so there’s no need to rehash all of the details here. As a Yankee fan I’m thrilled, and as a statistical analyst I’m equally thrilled (I did something of an ode to Andy a little over a year ago, so be sure to have a look at that). Andy has been a pillar of consistency throughout his career. To wit:
1995-2003: 3.94 ERA (86 ERA-)/3.73 FIP (83 FIP-)/3.41 xFIP (77 xFIP-), 6.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 49.3% GB%
2004-2006: 3.38 ERA (77 ERA-)/3.58 FIP (81 FIP-)/3.41 xFIP (77 xFIP-), 7.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 50.4% GB%
2007-2010: 4.08 ERA (92 ERA-)/3.89 FIP (88 FIP-)/4.05 xFIP (93 xFIP-), 6.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 46.9% GB%
However, today I’m primarily concerned with reviewing Pettitte’s stuff, and thankfully with Brooks’ excessively robust and reclassified new PITCHf/x database, we can have a more advanced look at what Pettitte did during the last few seasons of his career than ever before. The following table I’ve compiled details takes a look at each of Pettitte’s five pitches during the last three years he was active across a variety of categories. PitchIQ is ostensibly the equivalent of OPS+/ERA+; 100 is league average, while anything above is above-average and below is below-average. This is outstanding, as it gives us an idea of how well or poorly Andy’s pitches fared in comparison to his peers.

While he’s never had blow-you-away stuff, Andy’s been an incredibly successful Major Leaguer (and perhaps borderline Hall-of-Famer) due in part to his ability to hit his spots and change his speeds with a variety of secondary pitches that play off his 90mph fastball. According to Lucas’ and Harry’s reclassified PITCHf/x data, during his last three seasons in pinstripes Pettitte threw a fastball, sinker, cutter, curveball and changeup. Interestingly, ESPN’s Stats & Info blog put up a post last week detailing how one of the keys to Pettitte’s success in 2010 was his slider; however, according to this data Pettitte throws no such thing. I don’t know what data ESPN is being supplied with, but I’m inclined to go with the guys who manually reclassified more than 3 million pitches.
Per our data, Andy’s bread-and-butter — at least on a whiff/swing basis — has been his cutter, with a whiff/swing% an impressive 37% better than league average in 2010. None of his other pitches generated an above-average percentage of whiffs/swing. Part of the reason Andy’s able to get away with not having overpowering stuff is that his sinker and changeup each got him ground balls more than 50% of the time in 2010.
The one aspect of the PitchIQ Scores I’m still trying to get a firm read on is how to interpret them when it comes to LD/BIP and FB/BIP. I have an e-mail into Dan Brooks about this, and I’m pretty sure that we need to be looking at the PitchIQ Scores for these two categories as if they were “minus stats,” (i.e., below 100 is above-average and vice versa), given that general baseball convention holds that lower flyball and line drive percentages are thought of as a good thing. If my interpretation is indeed correct, both Pettitte’s curve and cutter have helped him limit the percentage of line drives, although the cutter is his only pitch that yields a FB% higher than 30%.
I also compiled Pettitte’s platoon splits from 2007-2010, although I won’t make your eyes glaze over by also posting a JPEG of that chart; feel free to download it here if you’d like. The gist of it is, Pettitte, as one would expect, handles righties and lefties with equal aplomb, although he’s really really good against same-side batters, with a PitchIQ whiff/swing of 148 on his cutter against lefties. For comparison’s sake, Jon Lester’s cutter against lefties during the same time period was 16% above average; while Cliff Lee’s is, rather surprisingly, 4% below league average. That doesn’t seem like it could be right, although then again for as good as Lee is I guess he’s always been a bit more about generating weak contact than outright overpowering hitters with strikeouts (though it’s not as if a 7.6 K/9 since 2007 is anything to sneeze at).
Conclusion and projections
So how well will Andy fare? Clearly if he can come close to throwing the way he’d been throwing during 2010, the Yankees will be adding a bona fide #2/#3 lefty starter at some point in May, which is just awesome to think about. Of course, only Andy knows how his soon-to-be 40-year-old body will react to returning to the grind of retiring Major League hitters and whether he still has the craftiness he’ll need to succeed.
Mike covered Pettitte’s ZiPS projection earlier this week, which sees a 4.45 ERA and 1.5 WAR for Pettitte in 125.1 IP. Marcel has Pettitte at 73 innings of non-adjusted 4.07 ERA/4.06 FIP ball; while SG’s baseline forecast (which is park- and league-adjusted) calls for 127 innings of 4.01 ERA/4.00 FIP ball. The 65% CAIRO forecast is even sunnier, with 140 innings of 3.69 ERA/3.64 FIP ball. All things considered, those are some pretty robust projections for an older player who skipped an entire season of work, and if he’s able to approximate some sort of amalgam of those numbers the Yankees will be in very good shape.
Projecting Andy Pettitte
Posted by: | CommentsAs exciting as it was to hear the news about Andy Pettitte‘s return, it’s very fair to wonder just what exactly he’ll be able to offer the Yankees once he’s ready to go. We won’t know the answer to that until he actually gets on a mound in real game situations, but Dan Syzmborski put his ZiPS system to work in the meantime (Insider req’d). ZiPS projects a 4.45 ERA and 1.5 WAR for Pettitte in 125.1 IP this year, accounting for the fact that he missed a full year but was above average before retiring. That’s basically a league average hurler, a bargain at the $2.5M price. For a seventh starter, that’s not bad at all.
Standard disclaimer: Projections are not predictions, just an estimate of current talent level.
Sorting out the rotation, now and later
Posted by: | CommentsThe good news is that the Yankees have two and a half weeks to sort the final three spots in the starting rotation. The bad news is — really, there is no bad news. The difficult news, if it can even be called that, is that they don’t have a spot for everyone. Right from the start someone is getting traded, optioned to the minors, or sent to the bullpen. Then, a few weeks later, assuming Andy Pettitte‘s comeback goes according to plan and schedule, they’ll have to make another similar move.
Given the guys on the roster, the Yanks could move in a number of directions. They face a few restrictions, but few enough that they can both populate their rotation with five high-quality arms and retain depth. They might even find upgrades in other spots along the way.
Unmovable objects
While it was seen as meaningless banter when he said it, Joe Girardi did reveal a truth when he talked about his rotation earlier this spring. In discussing his starters, he said that only CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda were guaranteed spots. Yeah right, people said in reaction. As though they’re going to send Ivan Nova or Michael Pineda to the bullpen or to the minors. Yet right now the possibility of just such a move has increased.
Without reading too far into Girardi’s statement, he did make one thing clear: Sabathia and Kuroda are unmovable. Kuroda secured a no-trade clause when he signed on with the Yankees. Given his desire to stay in LA last season, despite having no prayer of making the postseason, there is a close to zero chances that he waives it at any point this season. He committed to New York, and given everything we’ve heard about him, he intends to honor that commitment. Sabathia, of course, is the team’s ace and is essentially irreplaceable. We don’t need to forget about the idea of moving him, because it was never there in the first place.
Options remaining
If the Yankees would like to retain their depth, they could take advantage of the three pitchers on staff who have minor league options. Phil Hughes, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova can head to AAA if the Yankees feel that is the best course of action. Chances are, however, that AAA isn’t the best option for these guys, for a number of reasons.
1. A full AAA rotation. The Yankees already have D.J. Mitchell, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Dellin Betances, and Manny Banuelos in the AAA rotation. There have long been talks of Mitchell and Betances going to the bullpen, but it appears the Yankees would prefer for that move to come of necessity. Optioning one of the big leaguers to AAA would mean bumping someone at AAA, which causes a chain reaction across the organization.
2. The AAA road show. As we know, the AAA Yankees — the Empire State Yankees — will have no home turf this year. They will essentially be a traveling roadshow. That makes life a bit tougher, and it might make them think twice before optioning one of their more highly regarded pitchers. Then again, they do plan to have Betances and Banuelos travel all season, so perhaps it’s not that big a deal. In any case, it seems like an unideal situation to force someone into.
Along with those two general points, each pitcher has something going himself. It seems unlikely the Yankees would trade their up-and-coming slugger, and 2012 full-time DH, for a guy they’re going to stash in AAA. Last year Nova was one of the Yankees’ more reliable starters, and even earned the call in Game 2 of the ALDS. Finally, how silly would it look if the Yankees optioned Hughes to AAA a month after Brian Cashman referred to him as a “top-of-the-rotation starter”?
To the bullpen
Before the Pettitte news broke, it was pretty much assumed that the Yankees would move the odd man out of the rotation into the bullpen. From the start of the spring it appeared that Freddy Garcia would head that way, since the Yankees want to continue giving Phil Hughes chances in the rotation. Since Pettitte won’t be back to start the season, the Yankees could simply continue on this path and table their decision until Pettitte forces the issue.
Trade winds
Eventually the Yankees will have to make another rotation decision. Once Pettitte is ready, someone will get bumped. By that point, things might work themselves out. Someone might get hurt, someone might pitch horribly, whatever. That would give them a chance to shuffle things around and make room for Pettitte in the rotation.
Still, the Yanks could decide to get out in front of this issue and make a trade now to keep the picture a bit clearer. Chances are Garcia would agree to a trade — they need his permission if they want to trade him before June 15th. Otherwise, would they trade Nova for the right package? Hughes? It seems as though it’s Garcia or bust when it comes to a trade. That lessens the chance that one will happen.
All of this is predicated on the idea that Pettitte will indeed come back in good form. There is always the chance that he does not, which is why the Yanks might want to avoid the trade route. Then again, they do have considerable depth in the minors, so losing Garcia might not hurt that much, even if Pettitte does not return.
Looking at it from a wider angle, there doesn’t seem to be much of an issue. The Yankees can proceed as normal through the final weeks of spring training. Pettitte only complicates things a bit further down the road. Maybe this increases the chances the Yankees look to trade someone, but for right not it’s unlikely that they do anything too drastic. Seven starters for five spots seems like excess, but that can chance in a heartbeat. Despite possible complications, the Yanks are in a great spot right now.




