Yankeemetrics: Bird hunting in the Bronx (Sept. 14-17)

(AP)
(AP)

Dingers and runs are awesome
What happens when you combine one of the five best homer-hitting teams (Yankees) with one of the five most homer-friendly ballparks (Yankee Stadium) and one of the five most homer-prone pitching staffs (Orioles)? You get the dinger-fueled blowout that happened on Thursday night in the Bronx.

The Yankees crushed four homers and pummeled the Orioles, 13-5. It was the fifth home game that the Yankees scored at least a dozen runs – and the opponent for all five of those has been the Orioles. This is the first time in the last 100 years of major-league baseball that any team has scored 12 or more runs in five home games against a single opponent within a season.

Aaron Judge led the offensive barrage – he went 3-for-4, scored three runs, belted two homers and piled up a career-best six RBIs – and unsurprisingly continued his assault on the record books:

  • The homers were his 10th and 11th against the Orioles, making him the first player on any team to hit 10 or more home runs against the Baltimore Orioles in a season (the franchise moved to Baltimore in 1954).
  • Going back to the days when they were known as the St. Louis Browns, the only other Yankees with 11-plus dingers against the franchise in a season are Joe DiMaggio (three times), Lou Gehrig (twice) and Babe Ruth (twice).
  • Judge is the first Yankee to hit at least 11 homers against any opponent since 1961, when Roger Maris had 13 against the White Sox and Mickey Mantle had 11 against the Senators.
  • The two home runs were also his 26th and 27th in the Bronx, setting the single-season record at the new Yankee Stadium, a mark previously held by Curtis Granderson in 2012.
  • Judge also now has 24 RBIs against the Orioles. Combined with his 11 longballs, he became the youngest player to reach both those totals against any team in a season since a 24-year-old Willie Mays hit 12 homers and drove in 29 runs versus the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1955.
  • He scored his 110th run in the first inning, adding his name to this decent list of Yankees with at least 110 runs and 110 walks in a season: Ruth (10 times!), Mantle (six) and Gehrig (five).

Finally, lets cap it off with an #AaronJudgeFunFact: He is the youngest Yankee with at least three hits and six RBIs in a game since Yogi Berra on August 22, 1950 against the Tigers.

Gary Sanchez joined the home run derby in the sixth inning, going deep for the 31st time while setting the single-season franchise mark for homers by a player whose primary position was catcher. The 24-year-old also became the youngest backstop to hit more than 30 homers in a season since Mike Piazza for the Dodgers in 1993.

(AP)
(AP)

Eight is enough
Another home game against the Orioles, another blowout win. This one was a little tamer than Thursday’s explosive contest, as the Yankees won by only six runs (8-2) and had just three extra-base hits.

Didi Gregorius broke a 2-2 tie in the fifth inning with a 418-foot two-run blast, and added two sac flies, earning himself the coveted Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series award:

Only four other Yankees have hit a homer and multiple sac flies in a game (since sac flies first officially tracked in 1954) – Jorge Posada (2006), Jose Canseco (2000), Don Mattingly (1995), Bobby Murcer (1970).

The other stud in this game was, of course, Luis Severino, who cemented his Ace status with another fantastic performance. He went eight strong innings, giving up two runs on three hits while striking out seven. It was his 16th start this season with at least seven strikeouts and no more than two runs allowed, tied with Chris Sale and Corey Kluber for the most such games in the AL (through Friday’s slate).

The seven punchouts also pushed his season total to 218, becoming the youngest Yankee ever to reach that mark. He’s now tied for fifth on the franchise single-season strikeout list:

1. Ron Guidry (1978) – 248
2. Jack Chesbro (1904) – 239
3. CC Sabathia (2011) – 230
4. David Cone (1997) – 222
5. Luis Severino (2017) – 218
5. Melido Perez (1992) – 218

Holding a potent Orioles lineup to three hits and two runs is impressive on its own. But perhaps the most jaw-dropping part of his night was that he was pumping triple-digit gas in the late innings. Eight of the 23 pitches he threw in the seventh and eighth frames were clocked at 99 mph or faster. He’s now thrown 30 pitches of 99-plus mph after the sixth inning this season – which is more than twice as many (14) as the rest of all MLB starting pitchers combined!

(USA Today Sports)
(USA Today Sports)

Runs and dingers are awesome, Part II
The whipping of the O’s in the Bronx continued on Saturday with a 9-3 rout, and the victory also clinched their 25th consecutive winning season. That’s the second-longest streak in MLB history (Yankees had a winning record for 39 straight seasons from 1926-64), and nearly three times as long as the next-best active streak (Cardinals, 9)

Thanks to the nine-run outburst, the Yankees reached 150-run mark against the Orioles in their 18 matchups through Saturday. Why is that significant? It is the …

  • Most runs scored by any team against another team during the Expansion Era (since 1961).
  • Yankees ninth consecutive game with at least six runs against the O’s; since 1913, their only other longer six-plus-run scoring streak against any team was a 12-game stretch vs. the Indians in 1930.
  • Yankees sixth home game in a row scoring eight or more runs against the Orioles, their longest such streak against any opponent at Yankee Stadium (old or new).

Didi Gregorius opened the slugfest with a three-run shot in the third inning, his second straight game he homered with two men on base. He joined Frankie Crossetti (1932) as the only Yankee shortstops in the Live Ball era (since 1920) to hit a three-run homer in back-to-back games. [He added another homer in Sunday’s finale, bringing his total to 24 this season, and tying Derek Jeter (1999) for the most by a shortstop in franchise history.]

(Getty)
(Getty)

All good things … must come to an end
You knew the Yankees recent trend of bashing baseballs and breaking scoreboards was unsustainable (see Regression to the Mean), and that it came in a game started by Sonny Gray was hardly surprising (see Lowest Run Support among Yankee Starters).

But the fact that the Yankees were finally cooled off by Ubaldo Jimenez — and his 6.75 ERA — in Sunday’s 6-4 loss was shocking. The Yankees entered the game 12-3 when facing an opposing starter with an ERA over 6.00, the second-best such record in the majors behind the Dodgers (9-2). So, of course, Jimenez held the Yankees to one run over five innings while striking out 10. More #WeirdBaseball? Ubaldo joined Matt Moore (Sept. 22, 2011) as the only pitchers in the last 100 years with double-digit strikeouts in an outing of five or fewer innings against the Yankees.

But wait, there’s even more!

You also couldn’t have predicted their ridiculous scoring spree to be snapped by any Orioles pitcher, given how much the Yankees had pounded the entire O’s pitching staff this season and especially in the Bronx. First, the ridiculous totals from the 19-game season series and the 10 home games vs the Orioles:

Games Runs HR BA OBP Slug Pct.
Overall 19 154 46 .313 .406 .575
Home 10 102 32 .337 .425 .671

If you’re curious, Babe Ruth owns a slugging percentage of .690 and homered once every 11.7 at-bats in his career — which looks alot like the .671 slugging and 11.3 at-bat-per-homer rate that the Yankees put up against the Orioles in the Bronx this season. And now for the historical perspective on those numbers:

  • 154 runs overall are the most by the Yankees vs any team in a season series since 1956, when they scored 158 in 22 games against the A’s.
  • 46 homers overall are the most by any team against any single opponent in the Expansion Era, and are the second-most hit by the Yankees against a single team in franchise history (48 in 1956 against the A’s).
  • .575 slugging percentage overall is their second-highest in a season against any team in the last 100 years (min. 7 games), trailing the .578 mark vs. the Rangers in 1998.
  • 102 runs at home are the third-most Yankees have scored at Yankee Stadium (old or new) against an opponent (104 vs Browns in 1949, 108 vs White Sox in 1931).
  • 32 homers at home are the most hit by the Yankees against a single team within a season at either Yankee Stadium.

9/14 to 9/17 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)
(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

After taking two of three at Citi Field, the Yankees return across town to face the Baltimore Orioles for the last time this season. The Yankees have won 9 of 15 from the O’s this season and need just one win in this four-game set to clinch the season series.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees and O’s haven’t played since … last week. On Sept. 4-7, the Bombers won their first series at Camden Yards in four years as they broke out the bats.

  • Chad Green got seven outs (4 Ks) in relief in the opener as the Yankees overcame a 3-0 deficit with seven straight runs. Aaron Judge walked four times while Starlin Castro had three hits, including a home run.
  • After a long rain delay, the Yankees slowly surrendered a 6-1 lead on a series of home runs. They came within one out of victory but Manny Machado slugged a two-run walk-off shot off a Dellin Betances curveball to seal the crushing defeat.
  • Sonny Gray held Baltimore to one unearned run in the finale while Judge, Castro, Chase Headley and Todd Frazier each homered in a 9-1 blowout victory over Kevin Gausman and co.

Since They Last Met

  • Once they were done with the Yankees, the Orioles traveled to Cleveland. Not great timing. They were promptly swept by the Indians, who picked up wins No. 16-18 during their current 21-game streak.
  • North of the border, the O’s took two more L’s in the first two games of the series with the Blue Jays, both by one run. They held a 2-1 lead into the ninth on Tuesday, but usually reliable Zach Britton blew the save and took the loss.
  • They finally picked up a much-needed win in the sixth game of their 10 game set. Gausman threw seven one-run innings before the bullpen hung on. Trey Mancini did some damage with an RBI triple.

Their Story Right Now

After ending their six-game losing streak, the Orioles are now 72-74, a good 4.5 back of the second wild card. They were just one game back eight days ago and now they’d have to pass five teams in 2.5 weeks to reach the postseason. Anything short of a sweep this weekend is likely not enough for them and even said sweep would only pull them to within 3.5 of the Yankees.

They still have plenty of power in the middle of their order (Machado, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, Trey Mancini) but their starting rotation most closely resembles Swiss cheese. Furthermore, Tim Beckham boarded the regression train this month, hitting just .184 since the calendar flipped from August.

Lineup We Might See

On Monday, Wellington Castillo had his second groin injury of the year, taking a foul ball to his nether regions. He was taken to the hospital and Caleb Joseph has started the last two games behind the plate. It’s unclear whether Castillo will be back this weekend.

1. Tim Beckham, SS – (.285/.332/.466)
2. Manny Machado, 3B – (.269/.323/.496)
3. Jonathan Schoop, 2B – (.302/.346/.527)
4. Adam Jones, CF – (.283/.319/.471)
5. Trey Mancini, LF – (.291/.338/.500)
6. Chris Davis, 1B – (.217/.311/.429)
7. Mark Trumbo, DH – (.241/.295/.412)
8. Seth Smith, RF – (.259/.340/.439)
9. Caleb Joseph, C – (.263/.295/.425)

The lineup has remained relatively steady in recent games with Davis and Trumbo flipping spots while Seth Smith and Joey Rickard have each played the outfield. We could see Pedro Alvarez, who made his season debut vs. the Yankees last week.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Wade Miley

Miley is on pace to add some unwanted black ink to his Baseball Reference page this year as he leads all of baseball with 84 walks issued. Derek Holland is the closest pitcher to him with 75, but he was cut by the White Sox.

Seven of those walks came in his first start of the year against the Yankees. While he lasted just 10 innings over two starts vs. NYY, he held them to two runs with some timely outs. He comes into play Thursday with a 4.96 ERA over 29 starts.

Last Outing (at CLE on Sept. 8) – 5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 4 K

Friday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Gabriel Ynoa

Just 24 years old, Ynoa made his first start for the Orioles on Saturday in Cleveland. The Orioles acquired him from the Mets in February and he’s been up and down this season. He threw two shutout innings in relief against the Yankees on Labor Day. He utilizes a mid-90s fastball/sinker and a mid-80s slider as his primary offerings.

Last Outing (at CLE on Sept. 9) – 4.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 2 K

Saturday (4:05 PM EST): LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson was a puzzling deadline acquisition for the Orioles and he’s done little to add value since joining the O’s. Likely he was just a fresh arm to throw into the mix for a dreadful rotation. The right-hander has a career-low strikeout rate and is allowing nearly two home runs per nine innings. He’s allowed 10 in the 42 2/3 innings he’s thrown for the O’s.

While he didn’t give up a homer to the Yankees on Sept. 5, he did walk four and give up five runs en route to an early hook after seven outs.

Last Outing (at CLE on Sept. 5) – 6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. TBA

Both Dylan Bundy and Ubaldo Jimenez will be able to make this start, so it’s unclear to which right-hander Buck Showalter will turn. Jimenez pitched one inning of relief last week against the Yankees, but he’s been exclusively a starter otherwise since mid-June. Emblematic of his 6.75 ERA, he’s allowed five or more runs 12 times this season.

Bundy has been much better (4.03 ERA in his first full season as a starter in the majors) but the Yankees got to him early for the first time on Labor Day. They tagged him for five runs and put nine men on base in his four innings of work.

The Bullpen

Britton recovered from his blown save Tuesday to shut down the Blue Jays Wednesday. That means he’s likely unavailable Thursday. The All-Star closer sports a 3.09 ERA in his injury-shortened season after his 0.54 mark in 2016.

Darren O’Day, Brad Brach and Mychal Givens are the primary setup men right now with O’Day fulfilling that duty yesterday. Righty Miguel Castro has seen plenty of work, but he’s allowed runs in each of his last three outings. Rookie RHP Jimmy Yacabonis and former Yankee Richard Bleier have each had four appearances this month and are middle relief options From there, it’s a free-for-all. Expect plenty of pitching changes with Showalter and his lower tier rotation.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

The Orioles season has spiraled out of control since the Yankees went to Camden Yards on Labor Day, so it’d only be fitting if the Bombers put the finishing touches on the O’s. If the Yanks are going to make up ground on Boston, they need to take advantage of a team they’ve consistently beaten at Yankee Stadium this season.

In terms of the play itself, Aaron Judge hits Baltimore especially well. He’s hit an absurd .449/.603/1.082 in 68 PAs against the O’s, launching nine home runs and walking 19 times to just 14 strikeouts. Baltimore had zero interest in giving him pitches to hit last week, so we’ll see if they avoid him once again over the four-game set.

Yankeemetrics: Breaking the Camden Yards Curse (Sept. 4-7)

(AP)
(AP)

No sleep, no problem
Fresh off an inspiring series win over the Red Sox, the Yankees started the first leg of their grueling nine-game, three-city road trip under less-than-ideal conditions. Not only did they arrive in Baltimore in the wee hours of Monday morning for an afternoon game, but the Charm City has been a nightmare locale for them in recent years. They entered this series 9-24 on the road vs. the Orioles since the start of the 2014 season, easily their worst road mark against any AL team over the past four seasons.

Yet, despite their sleep deprivation and terrible record at Camden Yards, the Yankees stayed hot and got a critical win against one of the teams chasing them in the crazy AL wild card race. It was another come-from-behind victory as they trailed 3-0 after two innings, then rallied with seven unanswered runs in the middle innings en route to the 7-4 final.

Didi Gregorius sparked the comeback with a two-run blast in the fourth inning, his 20th homer of the season, which matches his career-high set last year. Even more impressively, Didi became the first shortstop in franchise history with back-to-back 20-homer seasons. He’s also put himself in the conversation as one of today’s elite shortstop sluggers too: the only other major-league shortstop to hit 20-plus dingers in both 2016 and 2017 is the Astros’ Carlos Correa.

Starlin Castro capped off the rally with a tie-breaking two-run shot in the fifth inning, his 13th home run this year, but the first one he’s hit that gave the Yankees a lead. It was also the fourth straight game he’s homered against the Orioles, the longest homer streak by a Yankee against them since Yogi Berra did it in 1955.

Aaron Judge didn’t participate in this home run derby but he did have a productive afternoon, getting on base five times in five plate appearances via a career-best four walks and a single. The four walks pushed him past the century mark for the season and etched his name in the record books alongside some franchise legends.

Four Yankees have hit at least 35 homers and walked 100 times in their age-25 season or younger: Aaron Judge, Mickey Mantle (1955, ’56), Lou Gehrig (1927) and Babe Ruth (1920).

Judge’s flawless performance at the plate also earned him our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series (and one of the most unique “lists” we’ve produced here). He is the fourth Yankee in the last 100 years to have four walks and a hit in a road game against the Orioles. The others: Paul O’Neill (1996), Snuffy Stirnweiss (1947) and Lou Gehrig (1932)!

(USA Today Sports)
(USA Today Sports)

Nightmare in Charm City
It had been nearly two weeks since our latest update to the Worst Loss of the Season standings, so perhaps Tuesday’s gut-wrenching and stunning defeat was inevitable …. though that still doesn’t eliminate the frustration of yet another bullpen implosion and miserable loss.

One out away from nailing down the Yankees fourth straight win, Dellin Betances served up a hanging curveball to Manny Machado, who quickly deposited the pitch into the centerfield seats, flipping a 6-5 lead into a shocking 7-6 loss. Entering the game, opponents had slugged .127 when putting his curveball in play this season, the second-lowest mark among pitchers that had thrown at least 300 curves.

Now let’s get the straightforward gory losing details out of the way, before we dive into the #FunFact minutiae (all ranks through Tuesday’s games):

  • 23rd blown save, tied for the third-most in baseball. The only seasons in franchise history the Yankees had more were 1988 (24) and 1997 (25).
  • 24th one-run loss, the most in the American League – and twice(!) as many as they suffered last year. Yup, regression to the mean sucks.
  • Fourth loss when taking a lead into the ninth inning; that’s the same number that they piled up in the previous three seasons (2014-16) combined.

Despite their dreadful recent history of failure at Camden Yards, their latest loss here was somehow unprecedented for the Yankees in this city. It was the first time they ever lost on a two-out walk-off home run in Baltimore, and the first time ever that the Yankees lost via a game-ending homer in Baltimore when leading at the time of the blast.

If you’ve felt that this season has been one of the most excruciating ever to be a Yankee fan – with too many of those “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” games – here’s the stat that might explain it:

Tuesday’s mess was the third time this year the Yankees suffered a shocking loss on a game-ending hit when they were one out away from victory. This is the first time since at least 1930 (as far back as we can search this stat on baseball-reference.com) that the Yankees have suffered three such losses in a season.

(Getty)
(Getty)

Holy cow, they did it!
The Nightmare in Charm City has finally ended — and in typical Bronx Bomber style. Powered by four home runs, the Yankees routed the Orioles, 9-1, in Thursday’s rubber game, snapping their streak of 11 straight series lost in Baltimore. It was their second-longest road series losing streak against any opponent in team history, behind a 12-series one in Oakland from 1985-91.

How long had it been since they tasted victory there? The last time the Yankees took a series at Camden Yards, the date was on September 12, 2013, the winning pitcher in the series-clinching win was Mariano Rivera, and the winning run in that game was scored by Brendan Ryan on a wild pitch in the top of the ninth inning.

The Yankees continued their assault on Orioles pitching in 2017 (like most other teams this season), averaging a whopping 8.0 runs per game with 36 homers and a .573 slugging percentage in 15 games — each of those are their best single-season marks against the franchise since it moved to Baltimore in 1954.

Aaron Judge ignited the dinger-fueled fireworks with a majestic two-run bomb to deep right-center, his 39th of the season. That moved him into sole possession of second place on MLB’s all-time rookie home run leaderboard, trailing Mark McGwire’s 49-homer campaign in 1987. The blast also extended his personal annihilation of the O’s pitching staff: in 15 games this year, he is hitting .449 (22-for-49) with nine homers and 18 RBIs against them.

He joined Graig Nettles — who went deep 10 times against the Indians in 1974 — as the only Yankees in the Divisional Era (since 1969) with at least nine homers in a single season against one opponent. The list of Yankees to hit nine or more longballs in a season against the Orioles/Browns franchise is a good one, too: Judge, Tommy Henrich (1941), Joe DiMaggio (four times), Lou Gehrig (twice) and Babe Ruth (three times).

The Yankees are playing well, but the wild card race is closer than it appears

Trout, Buxton and Machado (Getty Images)
Trout, Buxton and Machado (Getty Images)

For the past month, the focus for the Yankees has been on the AL East race. And rightly so, as they started July up a half game and are now just two back in the loss column. The division is still very much up for grabs.

But lost in the shuffle has been how the Bombers haven’t separated themselves rest of the pack in the AL Wild Card race. After play on Monday, the Yankees are up just three games on the Minnesota Twins, current holders of the second wild card spot. Just 1.5 games behind the Twins stand the Los Angeles Angels, four back in the loss column of the Yankees.

And despite the loss on Monday, the Baltimore Orioles are just 1.5 back of a playoff spot. The Texas Rangers are tied with them despite selling at the deadline. Further back are the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals, both within three games of the Twins and six in the loss column of the Yankees.

By taking 3 of 4 from Boston, the Yankees kept themselves in the division race and added some much-needed distance between them and the Twinkies. Yet we’re just a few days removed from the Twins being just a game back of the Yankees and the Angels and Orioles each had impressive second halves to stay in the race.

Sure, four games up in the loss column on a playoff spot is comfortable for the time being, but there are enough teams in striking distance to cause some uneasiness.

The Twins have an easy schedule for the last four weeks of the season, playing just six games against teams above .500. Three of those are at Yankee Stadium in two weeks. They also have seven against the last-place Detroit Tigers and two with the San Diego Padres. The Twins made up ground in part from playing an easy schedule, but it’s not as if their remaining competition is about to deter them.

The O’s, meanwhile, have 12 games left against current AL playoff teams while the Angels play a bunch with the Astros, Indians, Rangers and Mariners. The Rangers have three with the Yankees and then play in the AL West of the rest of the way. Each of these teams will be tested, but they’ll also have opportunities to move up, especially if the Yankees continue to play .500 ball.

While there are clear opportunities for the teams chasing the Yankees, there’s obviously no need to panic yet. Baltimore, Minnesota and Texas can use upcoming series against the Yankees to catch up, but the Yankees can create further distance with wins. Even splitting those contests is a win with time running out.

Despite lackluster pitching staffs, the Orioles and Angels have shown the ability to win games with their bats in the last month and each has added firepower (Tim Beckham and Justin Upton, respectively) since the All-Star break. The Rangers have shown resilience even with Adrian Beltre out and Yu Darvish dealt at the deadline.

What should keep Yankees fans sane is the talent gap in the Bombers’ favor. The Yankees have the best rotation and bullpen of any remaining WC contenders and likely have the best offense, too. None of these teams have a backend that can rival David Robertson and Dellin Betances, or a top four of Severino-Gray-Tanaka-Sabathia.

The Twins’ defense is impressive, particularly with Byron Buxton in centerfield every day and they boast strong young talent with Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios. Berrios may be the one pitcher the Yankees least want to see in the Wild Card Game if it comes to that. However, their bullpen is highly beatable, as is the backend of their rotation. They even dealt their closer to the Nationals on July 31.

The Orioles and Angels have high-end talent in their everyday lineup (read: Manny Machado and Mike Trout, among others) to get hot, but, again, their pitching holds them back. The Yankees’ Labor Day comeback against Dylan Bundy and co. was a supreme example of this. Beyond the top contenders, the Mariners have the best lineup of any remaining WC hopeful, but they’ve used 39 pitchers and counting during a season full of injuries and disappointment from their pitching staff.

Beyond simply the high-end talent, the Yankees also have the most depth, even after Aaron Hicks‘ injury. It’s the same depth that can win them the division and make them a legitimate World Series contender if they make the postseason.

But they have to make the postseason first and after going 17-16 in their last 33, that’s no sure thing. So when you’re scoreboard watching over the next couple weeks, make sure to not just look at the Red Sox, but also the wild card contenders. They may be closer than they appear.

9/4 to 9/6 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

Schoop and Machado. (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Schoop and Machado. (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees swept the Orioles in Yankee Stadium way back in June, outscoring them by 30 runs over three games. By the time that series was over the Yankees were 37-23, and were in the running for the best team in baseball. Some notes from the series:

  • The Yankees hit twelve home runs in the series as a whole – Aaron Judge and Starlin Castro hit three apiece, Aaron Hicks and Gary Sanchez had two each, and Didi Gregorius and Matt Holliday both chipped in one.
  • Judge was leading the league in the Triple Crown categories at the end of the series, batting .344 with 21 home runs and 47 RBI. He also hit this home run, which is still the longest of 2017.
  • While the offense was the story of the weekend, the contributions of the Yankees young starting pitchers shouldn’t be overlooked. Jordan Montgomery (7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K) and Luis Severino (7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K) appreciated all of the run support, but they pitched more than well-enough to win on most nights.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun statistics from the series.

Injury Report

The Orioles are relatively healthy right now. Craig Gentry just hit the disabled list with a fractured right finger, but the team is expected to otherwise be at full-strength for this series. J.J. Hardy has been on the DL since mid-June, for what it’s worth, but he’s expected to return today or tomorrow.

Their Story So Far

Baltimore is 70-67 and just 1.5 games out of the Wild Card game, despite a -23 run differential. They’ve won 8 of their last 10, a stretch that includes back-to-back sweeps of the Mariners and Red Sox, and they look far smarter for buying at the deadline than they did at the time.

Tim Beckham, of all people, was their big trade deadline acquisition. He’s batting .364/.385/.587 in 32 games with the Orioles, and he has slotted into the top of their lineup with gusto. Beckham is best known for being something of a bust with the Rays, posting a 97 wRC+ in his first three seasons in the majors, and never putting up the sort of jaw-dropping numbers in the minors that one would expect from a player of his stock. He’s still only 27, though, and he has a 115 wRC+ in 493 PA this year.

The Lineup We Might See

Buck Showalter has had a fairly steady hand with his lineup on a day-to-day basis, with the first six or seven spots in the lineup being incredibly consistent. He has utilized some platoons, but he seems to prefer to have defined roles for his hitters. Based on that:

  1. Tim Beckham, SS – .291/.335/.463, 18 HR, 6 SB
  2. Manny Machado, 3B – .271/.324/.497, 30 HR, 9 SB
  3. Jonathan Schoop, 2B – .309/.354/.543, 30 HR, 1 SB
  4. Adam Jones, CF – .281/.318/.475, 26 HR, 1 SB
  5. Trey Mancini, LF – .291/.338/.507, 23 HR, 1 SB
  6. Chris Davis, 1B – .224/.319/.437, 22 HR, 0 SB
  7. Mark Trumbo, DH – .246/.301/.415, 21 HR, 1 SB
  8. Welington Castillo, C – .300/.339/.512, 18 HR, 0 SB
  9. Seth Smith, RF – .269/.353/.459, 13 HR, 2 SB

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (2:05 PM EST): LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Dylan Bundy

Bundy’s season is something of a small miracle. The 24-year-old did not pitch in 2013, and threw a combined 63.1 IP between 2014 and 2015. He was mostly healthy last year, throwing 109.2 IP between the rotation and the bullpen, but he clearly tired down the stretch. And yet heading into today’s start he has 155.1 IP of 3.94 ERA (109 ERA+) ball, his velocity has remained steady, and he has been markedly better in the second half (4.33 ERA/7.0 K/9 before the break, 3.04 ERA/10.1 K/9 since). One can’t help but worry that he’ll wear down, but it’s a great story nonetheless.

Last Outing (vs. SEA on 8/29) – 9.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 12 K

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez

To Jimenez’s credit, he has stayed healthy throughout his career, and has been (as far as we know) gracious in accepting whatever role changes the Orioles throw his way. That’s about all the positivity one can muster on his accord, though, as he has a 6.11 ERA (70 ERA+) since the beginning of last year, and he has transitioned from flame-thrower to someone with average velocity over the last four seasons.

Last Outing (vs. SEA on 8/30) – 2.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 3 K

Wednesday (7:05 PM EST): Sonny Gray vs. RHP Jeremy Hellickson

The Orioles were mocked a bit for buying at the deadline, given that they were 50-54 at the time. They sport a 20-13 record since then, however, and have eked back into the playoff race. Hellickson, their “major” acquisition, has not contributed all that much to that success, pitching to a 6.55 ERA (66 ERA+) in 6 starts with his new team. He has been serviceable for the majority of his career, pitching to a 98 ERA in parts of eight seasons, but that’s a far cry from the expectations on a consensus top-ten prospect.

Hellickson is a true five-pitch pitcher. He throws a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, an upper-80s cutter, a low-80s change-up, and a mid-70s curveball. His change-up is generally his best pitch but, by FanGraphs’ reckoning, it has been his worst this year (and one of the worst in the game, at that).

Last Outing (vs. TOR on 8/31) – 4.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 4 BB, 2 K

The Bullpen

The Orioles have exceeded both expectations and Pythagoras over the last several years, and the bullpen has played a tremendous part in that. This year, however, the group has been largely mediocre, with several of their core relievers regressing heavily. That was to be expected, given that Zach Britton had a 0.54 ERA in 67.0 IP last year – but that made the team’s margin for error that much slimmer this year. It is worth noting that the bullpen has gradually rounded into form, pitching to a 3.09 ERA in the second-half, with most pitchers clustering within that range.

Britton is still the closer, and Mychal Givens and Brad Brach handle the set-up duties. Darren O’Day and Richard Bleier are both specialists, but Showalter will use both against most anyone. They also have Miguel Castro is a dedicated long-relief role, but Showalter has used him to get some big outs.

Who (Or What) To Watch

I enjoy every pitch that I get to see from Bundy, so he will have free reign of this section whenever he pitches against the Yankees. It amazes me that he came back from so many injuries and so much organizational turmoil to be a solid starter at the highest level.

Beyond that, this is yet another important series for the Yankees. They’re 3.5 games ahead of the Orioles in the standings, but we’ve seen how quickly things can shift – and these two teams will meet again next weekend.

2017 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Monday

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

The 2017 non-waiver trade deadline is now only hours away, not days. The Yankees addressed their fifth starter’s spot yesterday by acquiring Jaime Garcia from the Twins, two weeks after addressing their bullpen by acquiring David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox. They also added a stray Todd Frazier along the way. My hunch is the Yankees are not done.

Over the last few days (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) we learned the Yankees are still looking to add another starting pitcher even after picking up Garcia yesterday. A first baseman and a left-on-left matchup reliever are also on the shopping list, though they aren’t top priorities. We’re going to keep track of the day’s Yankees-related rumors right up until the 4pm ET trade deadline, so keep it locked right here. All timestamps are ET.

  • 3:10pm: Sonny Gray will be a Yankee. It’s Gray and $1.5M in international bonus money for James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Dustin Fowler, per reports.
  • 2:46pm: A trade! But a small one. The Yankees traded Yefry Ramirez to the Orioles for more international bonus money, the team announced. The deal clears a 40-man roster spot, which could be useful soon.
  • 2:40pm: The latest non-update: the Yankees and A’s are still talking about Gray. [Sherman]
  • 12:11pm: The Athletics are said to be “infatuated” with Mateo, for what it’s worth. [Sherman]
  • 11:55am: Apparently the A’s want 3-4 players beyond the Torres/Frazier tier for Gray. The two sides have agreed to some names but are still haggling about the others. [Heyman]
  • 11:48am: The Yankees and Athletics are gaining traction for a Gray trade, and it now seems more likely than less to happen. [Sherman]
  • 11:42am: The A’s initially wanted a Gleyber Torres/Clint Frazier package for Gray and backed away from that. They then wanted a Jorge Mateo/Estevan Florial package, but the Yankees won’t do that either. Huh. [Sweeny Murti]
  • 11:31am: The Braves’ interest in Gray has cooled, which is good news for the Yankees. One fewer suitor. Right now it seems the Yankees and Dodgers are the only teams on Gray, and the Dodgers seem to be focusing on Darvish. [Sherman]
  • 10:44am: The Yankees checked in with the Padres about Brad Hand yesterday, though it seems it was due diligence more than anything. Plenty of clubs are in on Hand. [Sherman]
  • 10:11am: The Yankees and A’s are “close enough to get over the hump” and complete a Gray trade today. The two sides still need to work some things out first. [Jerry Crasnick]
  • 10:00am: The Yankees and Athletics made “zero progress” yesterday during Sonny Gray trade talks. Apparently the A’s have set their price and the Yankees have made their offer, and that’s where things stand. [Bob Klapisch]
  • 10:00am: The Yankees are still in touch with the Rangers about Yu Darvish, though they’re not making a hard push for him. The Yankees are not included in Darvish’s ten-team no-trade list, for what it’s worth. [Joel Sherman, Jon Heyman]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Yankeemetrics: Dingers, runs, wins, oh my! (June 9-11)

(USA Today Sports)
(USA Today Sports)

Well, that was a fun series, eh? As we like to say here at River Ave. Blues … Love. This. Team.

Just getting warmed up…
Friday’s game began as a pitchers duel but turned into an easy victory for the Yankees, who scored six runs in the final three innings after entering the sixth deadlocked at 2-2 with the Orioles.

Aaron Hicks provided the power boost, clobbering two home runs. Only three other Yankee centerfielders have ever had a multi-homer game against the Orioles at Yankee Stadium: Bernie Williams (1996), Mickey Mantle (1960) and Joe DiMaggio (four times, when they were known as the St. Louis Browns). #YankeeLegends

Starlin Castro also got a free trot around the bases with his 10th homer of the season in the second inning. Combined with Hicks reaching the double-digit mark, that made the Yankees the first major-league team to have five players with 10-plus homers in 2017. In case you were wondering, the Red Sox didn’t have a single player with 10 homers through Friday.

(Getty)
(Getty)

Holy Sweet Sixteen
Friday’s 8-2 win was a nail-biter compared to the 16-3 shellacking that the Yankees put on the Orioles Saturday night. The offensive numbers were mind-boggling – 18 hits, seven singles, six doubles, five homers – but perhaps the most impressive part was how productive the lineup was from top to bottom.

Five different players had at least two hits, including a homer, and drove in multiple runs. It was just the third time in franchise history they had five guys do that in the same game. The first time was a 23-2 win on June 28, 1939 against the Philadelphia A’s, and the other instance was July 22, 2007 in a 21-7 win over the Devil Rays.

In a yet another example of how different this team is compared to last year, the Yankees have become the Blowout Kings of baseball in 2017. Saturday’s win was their major-league-leading 18th victory by at least five runs; Last year they had 17 wins by five-plus runs the entire season.

Aaron Judge kicked off the offensive explosion with a laser shot in the first inning that left the bat at an otherwordly 121.1 mph, the fastest base hit ever record by Statcast (which began in 2015). He added a scorching 116-mph two-run double in the fifth inning, making him the only player in the Statcast Era with multiple hits of 116 mph or more in the same game.

Gary Sanchez capped off the Yankees unreal power-hitting performance with a bullet line-drive homer in the eighth inning that had an exit velocity of (a mere) 115 mph and a launch angle of 15 degrees. That was the hardest-hit homer in Sanchez’s career, and matched Justin Smoak (on May 14) for the lowest launch angle of any home run hit this season.

With Sanchez’s 115-mph longball and Judge’s 121-mph longball, they became the first set of teammates in the Statcast Era to hit homers of 115-mph or more in the same game. Yea, Baby Bombers.

Amidst all the fireworks, it was easy to forget Luis Severino delivering yet another ace-like performance. Let’s take a look at Severino’s last five starts: 33 1/3 innings, 1.35 ERA, 37 strikeouts, eight walks. That’ll do.

He has at least seven strikeouts and no more than two earned runs allowed in each game, becoming the third right-handed pitcher to put together a streak of five such starts in Yankees history. The others were pretty good: Roger Clemens in 2001 and Mike Mussina in 2003.

(USA Today Sports)
(USA Today Sports)

#TooManyRuns
In Sunday’s 14-3 rout, the Yankees ‘statistically’ may not have topped their offensive numbers from Saturday, but that didn’t keep them from obliterating the record books.

We need bullet points, just the facts, because recapping these ridiculous feats don’t require fancy words. First, the team perspective. This is the …

  • First time ever the Yankees have scored at least eight runs and hit multiple homers in five straight games.
  • Second time in franchise history they hit at least three homers in four straight games. The 1956 team also did it July 27-30.
  • Second time ever the Yankees have won five straight games, each by six or more runs. The 1938 team holds the record with an 8-game streak.
  • Fifth time in franchise history they’ve outscored their opponents by at least 46 runs in a five-game stretch. The others were in 2007, 1939, 1938 and 1937.
  • Ninth time that a Yankees squad has a run differential of plus-115 or better at the 60-game mark. They won the World Series in each of the previous eight seasons this happened (1998, 1953, 1939, 1937, 1936, 1932, 1928, 1927). So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

Before we get to Mr. Judge, let’s heap some praise on El Gary Sanchez. He broke the game open with a three-run 450-foot bomb in the first inning to make it 5-0, the longest homer of his career. It was also his 30th home run in the big leagues, a milestone that only three other players in major-league history reached as quickly as Sanchez did (in his 90th game): Rudy York, Mark McGwire and Jose Abreu.

Judge takes center stage now, as we put into perspective his four-hit, four-run, two-homer performance, which included a ho-hum 495-foot blast that CLEARED THE BLEACHERS in left-center at Yankee Stadium.

  • He is the third Yankee age 25 or younger to have at least four hits, two homers and four runs scored in a game. You might have heard of the others: Mickey Mantle (1956), Joe DiMaggio (1937) and Lou Gehrig (1928, 1929).
  • The only other Yankees in their age-25 season or younger to hit 20-plus homers before the All-Star Break (since 1933) are Roger Maris (1960), Mantle (three times, lol), and DiMaggio (1937). Yup, we’re still more than a month away from the break.
  • He’s just the fifth Yankee – regardless of age – to hit 21 or more homers in the team’s first 60 games. This list is good: A-Rod (2007), Maris (1961*), Mantle (1956) and Babe Ruth (six times, LOL).
  • His 495-foot home is the longest in baseball this season and the longest by an American League player since Statcast began tracking distances in 2015. The only longer one in MLB was a 504-foot shot by Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton on August 6, 2016.

And, oh by the way, he’s currently leading the AL Triple Crown categories after Sunday’s slate. The only Yankees to win the Triple Crown are a couple fellas with the last name of Mantle (1956) and Gehrig (1934).