Yankeemetrics: April 10-12 (Red Sox)

Chase Headley, clutch Yankee. (Photo credit: Richard Perry/The New York Times
Chase Headley, clutch Yankee. (Photo: Richard Perry/New York Times)

I watched the entire game!
Three times a charm, right? Wrong.

In the series opener against their most-hated rival, the Yankees somehow erased three separate one-run deficits with their backs against the wall in the ninth, 16th and 18th innings – but could never get the big hit needed to complete the rally against the Red Sox. There are brutal losses, and then there’s the way that the Yankees lost in 19 innings on Friday night.

Let’s recap the craziness of this epic marathon in bullet-point form. First, some notes on the game length:

• It was the sixth game of at least 19 innings in franchise history and the first since a 5-4 19-inning win on August 25, 1976 against Minnesota.
• The only other time the Yankees lost a game that lasted at least 19 innings was a 3-2 loss in 19 innings on May 24, 1918 vs. Cleveland.
• The game was the longest the Yankees have ever played this early into the season (first four games).
• The Yankees and Red Sox have been playing each other since 1903. The only other game in the rivalry that lasted longer than this one was a 20-inning win on August 29, 1967.
• The game lasted six hours and 49 minutes, the longest game ever played by the Yankees in the Bronx. It was just shy of the longest game the Yankees have played anywhere, which was a seven-hour marathon at Detroit on June 24, 1962.

And now let’s put into context how improbable the clutch, game-saving hits were by Chase Headley, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran:

• Headley became the first Yankee with a game-tying two-out homer in the ninth inning against the Red Sox since Roberto Kelly in 1991; the last Yankee to do that against Boston at Yankee Stadium was Roy White in 1977.
• Teixeira’s 16th inning homer is latest game-tying home run by an American League player since the Jim Finigan (Kansas City Athletics) tied the game in the 17th inning against the Senators in 1956. Before Tex, no Yankee had done it in at least the last 75 years.
• Beltran’s 18th inning game-tying double is the latest game-tying hit by an American League player since the Tom Paciorek’s single for the White Sox in the 21st inning against the Brewers in 1984.

Oh, and did you forget that Nathan Eovaldi actually started this game and pitched the first 5 2/3 innings? All he did was become the first pitcher in at least the last 100 years to throw at least two wild pitches and hit a batter in his Yankee debut. Good times, everyone.

The hangover
Red Sox starter Joe Kelly completely dominated the Yankees lineup on Saturday afternoon (W, 7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 8 K), paving the way for an eventual 8-4 loss by the home team. He became the first Red Sox pitcher to allow no more than one hit and strikeout at least eight batters against the Yankees in a game at Yankee Stadium since Pedro Martinez’s one-hit, 17-strikeout gem on September 10, 1999.

Although the Yankees’ bats eventually woke up in the sixth game of the season (see below), but it’s worth noting how anemic the offense was through five games. Again, to the bullet-points:

Through five games, the Yankees…
• .622 OPS is their lowest since 1998 (.610)
• .280 OBP is their lowest since 1989 (.259)
• .193 BA is their lowest since 1968 (.176)
• 46 strikeouts are their most in at least the last 100 years

Seventh heaven
The Yankees wasted no time in getting on the scoreboard in the Sunday night finale, jumping out to a 7-0 lead in the first inning. It was the first time the Yankees scored at least seven runs in the first inning against the Red Sox since Aug. 15, 1954, when they took a 8-0 lead en route to a 14-9 victory at Yankee Stadium.

Prior to this game, not only had the Yankees never scored first in a game this season, they didn’t even have a hit in the first inning – the only the team in the majors that entered Sunday’s schedule without a first-inning hit.

The Yankees tagged Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz for 10 runs before he was pulled in the fourth inning. He is the only Red Sox pitcher to allow 10-or-more runs in fewer than four innings pitched against the Yankees over the last 100 years of the rivalry.

The Yankees broke out of their offensive slump in Sunday’s 14-4 win, but their sloppy glovework continued as they committed another error, bringing their league-leading total to nine after the first week of the season. Even worse, they have allowed at least one unearned run in each of their first six games, joining the 1995 White Sox as the only teams in the last 75 years to do that.

4/10 to 4/12 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox


One AL East rival leaves town and another comes in. The Red Sox will be in the Bronx for three games this weekend, including the ESPN Sunday Night Game. At least Saturday’s game won’t be on FOX. It ain’t all bad.

What Have The Red Sox Done Lately?

The Sawx drew the short straw and opened their season with a road interleague matchup against the awful Phillies. Boston took two of three in Philadelphia and outscored them 16-6 in the three games.

Offense & Defense

Like I said, Boston scored 16 runs in three games against the Phillies. Only five teams have scored more runs in the early going of the new season, which means not much, really. I’m not kidding when I say it’s early. The first series of the year isn’t definitive proof of anything. That said, everyone expects the Red Sox to hit this year. Here’s their lineup, their season performance to date, and their ZiPS projections:

2015 Performance 2015 ZiPS Projection
CF Mookie Betts
3-for-13 (.231), 1 HR .266/.336/.408 (109 wRC+)
2B Dustin Pedroia
3-for-12 (.250), 2 HR .278/.340/.392 (104 wRC+)
DH David Ortiz
1-for-7 (.143) .277/.363/.526 (139 wRC+)
LF Hanley Ramirez 4-for-13 (.308), 2 HR .271/.345/.455 (123 wRC+)
3B Pablo Sandoval
2-for-12 (.167) .279/.328/.454 (114 wRC+)
1B Mike Napoli
0-for-5 .241/.353/.441 (123 wRC+)
RF Shane Victorino
2-for-8 (.250), 1 SB .261/.317/.393 (98 wRC+)
C Ryan Hanigan
1-for-8 (.125) .240/.335/.333 (86 wRC+)
SS Xander Bogaerts
4-for-11 (.364) .263/.322/.409 (103 wRC+)

So yeah, everyone expects the Red Sox to hit and hit big this year, including the totally objective projection systems. Boston has at least three and maybe four guys who would qualify as the Yankees’ best hitter this season. They have power and on-base skills, mostly from the right side. Ortiz and the switch-hitting Sandoval are their only significant threats from the left side and Betts is their best stolen base threat at this point.

Hanley. (Presswire)

On the bench, manager John Farrell has UTIL Allen Craig, UTIL Brock Holt, OF Daniel Nava, and C Sandy Leon. Leon was a last minute pickup in Spring Training after projected starting C Christian Vazquez blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John surgery. Holt can play anywhere and Nava, who can really hit righties, abandoned switch-hitting this spring and now bats exclusively from the left side. Craig is coming off a brutal 2013 season (69 wRC+) and is a square peg in a round roster hole. I have to think he’ll be traded at some point this summer.

Defensively, the Red Sox are strong on the infield and sketchy in the outfield. Pedroia and Sandoval and comfortably above-average at their positions and Napoli is strong around the bag, though not the rangiest at first. Bogaerts has skills but is maddeningly inconsistent. He’s error prone in the purest sense of the term. The outfield features two guys who have been full-time outfielders for less than a year (Hanley and Betts) and a 34-year-old coming off back surgery (Victorino). This isn’t a disaster outfield, but it’s not as good as the infield, for sure.

Pitching Matchups

Friday: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Career vs. BOS) vs. LHP Wade Miley (Career vs. NYY)
Both Eovaldi and Miley will be making their first starts for their new teams later tonight. Miley, 28, came over from the Diamondbacks in the offseason after pitching to a 4.34 ERA (3.98 FIP) in 201.1 innings a year ago. His strikeout (21.1%) and home run (1.03 HR/9) rates were about average, his walk rate was below average (8.7%), and his ground ball rate was above average (51.1%). Miley didn’t have a platoon split at all — lefties had a .326 wOBA and righties had a .331 wOBA. The burly southpaw works in the low-90s with his two and four-seam fastballs, which he uses interchangeably, and he also throws a mid-80s slider and a low-80s changeup. Miley has pitched in Yankee Stadium before, allowing three runs in 6.2 innings with Arizona back in 2013.

Saturday: RHP Adam Warren (Career vs. BOS) vs. RHP Joe Kelly (Career vs. NYY)
The 26-year-old Kelly missed the end of Spring Training with a biceps problem, and he was originally expected to make a minor league rehab start this weekend, but Farrell told Scott Lauber yesterday they “are leaning towards” starting him against the Yankees tomorrow. Whatever. Kelly had a 4.20 ERA (4.37 FIP) in 96.1 innings split between the Cardinals and Red Sox last year, and only his ground ball (54.9%) and homer (0.74 HR/9) rates were better than average. His strikeout (15.9%) and walk (10.1%) rates were comfortably worse than average. He didn’t have much of a platoon split though (.318 vs. .307 wOBA in favor of righties). Kelly throws hard, sitting in the mid-90s with a two-seamer he uses as his main fastball. An upper-70s curveball is his go-to secondary pitch and he’ll also throw some low-80s changeups. If Kelly doesn’t start Saturday, it’ll be 30-year-old knuckeballer Steven Wright instead.

Buchholz. (Presswire)

Sunday: RHP Masahiro Tanaka (Career vs. BOS) vs. RHP Clay Buchholz (Career vs. NYY)
So there will be plenty of rational discourse about Tanaka during the ESPN broadcast, right? Lol no. It’ll be awful. Anyway, the 30-year-old Buchholz held the punchless Phillies scoreless for seven innings on Opening Day, striking out nine and allowing just three hits and one walk. He had a 5.34 ERA (4.01 FIP) in 170.1 innings a year ago thanks to a below average strikeout rate (17.9%) and average-ish walk (7.3%), grounder (46.6%) and homer (0.90 HR/9) numbers. Lefties (.351 wOBA) hit him quite a bit harder (.308 wOBA) than righties. This is Clay Buchholz though, who knows what you’re going to get on a given night. Low-90s two and four-seamers and an upper-80s cutter set up his upper-70s curveball and low-80s changeup, both of which are legit swing-and-miss pitches on their best days. Even with the roster turnover the last year or so, the Yankees have seen quite a bit of Buchholz. He’s no stranger.

Bullpen Status
The Red Sox are without closer RHP Koji Uehara, who missed most of Spring Training with a hamstring injury and a subsequent setback. He’s still working his way back and won’t return this series. Farrell has said RHP Edward Mujica will take over ninth inning duties in the meantime. He threw eleven pitches in an inning of work last night. Middle innings lefties Craig Breslow and Tommy Layne also threw an inning each yesterday.

Mujica’s primary setup man is RHP Junichi Tazawa, who is quietly one of the better setup men in the game. He threw an inning on Opening Day and hasn’t pitched since. Ex-Rangers RHP Alexi Ogando and LHP Robbie Ross are Boston’s version of Justin Wilson and David Carpenter, but with less velocity. They each threw an inning Wednesday. RHP Anthony Varvaro is a Staten Island kid who is the quintessential “maybe he can more but probably not” middle reliever. He’s yet to pitch in the game this season. Wright is in the bullpen as well and I assume he’ll go to Triple-A to make room for Kelly. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for the status of New York’s bullpen and Over the Monster for the latest and greatest on the Red Sox.

A New Era of Widespread AL East Mediocrity [2015 Season Preview]

For the first time since 2006 and only the fourth time since the wildcard system was implemented in 1995, just one AL East team qualified for the postseason last year. The AL East’s reign as baseball’s dominant division is over. The Orioles won the division by 12 games last season but there is no clear cut favorite heading into 2015. It’s just a jumbled mess of mediocrity. There’s a very real chance the division will be without a 90+ win team for the first time since the 2000 Yankees took the AL East with 87 wins. Here’s an overview of the Yankees’ division rivals heading into the new season.

"Hmmm. Who will win this terrible division?" (Presswire)
“Hmmm. Who will win this mediocre division?” (Presswire)

Baltimore Orioles

Biggest Strength: I say roster depth in general. They have five average or better starters — well, that’s with Kevin Gausman in the rotation and Ubaldo Jimenez in the bullpen — and a quality set of relievers to go with some power bats and a versatile bench. The defense is also very good, especially on the infield. And Buck Showalter is a difference-making manager. His strategic on-field moves are arguably the best in the game. On any given day, Baltimore can win with their pitching or their offense. They’re well-rounded.

Biggest Weakness: The lack of on-base guys — losing Nick Markakis will only exacerbate that — and injury issues. The O’s led baseball with 211 homers last year (the Rockies were a distant second with 186) but were only eighth with 705 runs because their team .311 OBP ranked 17th out of the 30 clubs. The O’s could easily lead MLB in homers again even without Nelson Cruz and that’s great. Homers are awesome! But they’re better when guys are on base.

As for the injury issues, both J.J. Hardy (shoulder) and Matt Wieters (Tommy John surgery) will open the season on the DL. Manny Machado is coming off right knee surgery and has already had surgery on both knees before his 23rd birthday. Will that hamper his mobility at third base? Machado’s an elite defender with a good but not great bat. Any decline in his defense will take a big bite out of his overall value. The starting catcher and left side of the infield carry health concerns.

The O’s In One Sentence: They lost some key players to free agency this past offseason, but there’s no way I’m going to write them off as a contender.

Hanley's back. (Presswire)
Hanley’s back. (Presswire)

Boston Red Sox

Biggest Strength: The offense. Hanley Ramirez is going to be a big help, even if he only plays 120 games. And even though Pablo Sandoval has gotten overrated — I’m guessing there are many fans who’ve only seen him play in the World Series and think that’s who he is all the time — Red Sox third basemen have hit .226/.280/.351 (85 OPS+) the last two years. He’ll be a big upgrade at the hot corner.

We have no idea what Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo can do across a full MLB season yet, but expectations are high, especially for Betts. (They’re so insanely high at this point that there’s basically no way he can meet them.) Mike Napoli and David Ortiz are still annoyingly productive, and there’s at least some hope Dustin Pedroia can halt his decline now that his thumb’s healthy. The Red Sox are going to mash, especially at home.

Biggest Weakness: The rotation. My goodness. Forget the “they don’t have an ace” stuff. Do they even have two league average starters? Rick Porcello was quite good last year, with a 116 ERA+ in 204.2 innings, but Clay Buchholz had a 72 ERA+ in 170.1 innings. Justin Masterson has an 83 ERA+ in his last 528 innings (!) and those three miles an hour he lost off his fastball last year haven’t come back this spring. Wade Miley had an 86 ERA+ in 201.1 innings last year and Joe Kelly had a 91 ERA+ in 96.1 innings. Also, this group has combined for an 18.0% strikeout rate the last three years, so they miss a below average number of bats. Who’s going out there to stop a losing streak?

The Sawx In One Sentence: If the Red Sox are going to contend, they’ll have to contend like the mid-2000s Yankees and outhit their own pitching staff.

No. 2 starer. For real. (Presswire)
No. 2 starer. For real. (Presswire)

Tampa Bay Rays

Biggest Strength: I … I … I don’t know. I guess the revamped outfield defense with Kevin Kiermaier in center and Desmond Jennings in left? Otherwise the Rays don’t seem to be particularly good at anything. Evan Longoria is a really good player, Chris Archer is a quality starter, and the Jake McGee/Brad Boxberger bullpen duo is as good as it gets, at least once McGee comes back from offseason elbow surgery. That’s about it. Unlike the Orioles, who don’t have an obvious strength but are solid all around, the Rays don’t have an obvious strength and have questions all around.

Biggest Weakness: The rotation. Remember when the Rays used to add a new immediate impact rookie starter to their rotation year after year? That doesn’t happen anymore. They needed 24 starts from Roberto Hernandez in 2013 and 15 starts from Erik Bedard in 2014. Matt Moore (Tommy John surgery), Alex Cobb (forearm), and Drew Smyly (shoulder) are all hurt, so Tampa Bay had to scramble to trade for the extremely homer prone Erasmo Ramirez a few days ago and will start Nate Karns in the second game of the season. He had a 5.08 ERA in a full season at Triple-A last year. This rotation won’t be Devil Rays caliber bad, but it is in no way a strength.

The Rays In One Sentence: Ex-manager Joe Maddon and ex-GM Andrew Friedman jumped ship and not a moment too soon.

Reyes, Donaldson, and Encarnacion. And none of 'em is Toronto's best hitter. (Presswire)
Reyes, Donaldson, and Encarnacion. And none of ’em is Toronto’s best hitter. (Presswire)

Toronto Blue Jays

Biggest Strength: Middle of the lineup. The 3-4-5 combination of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson is straight up terrifying. They rank 10th, 11th, and 20th in OPS+ the last two years (min. 800 PA) and 7th, 2nd, and 18th in homers, respectively. Those three are going to generate a ton of runs, especially when Jose Reyes is healthy and leading off. Bautista and Encarnacion were scary enough these last few years. Adding Donaldson to the mix is unfair.

Biggest Weakness: Top heavy roster and extreme reliance on youth. Toronto is going to have two rookies in the rotation (Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez), two rookies in the lineup (Dalton Pompey and Devon Travis), and two rookies in the bullpen (Roberto Osuna and Miguel Castro). For a team looking to contend, they’re putting a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of young players with no real backup plans. Reyes, Bautista, Encarnacion, Donaldson, R.A. Dickey, and Mark Buehrle have to produce as expected for this club to have a chance. They don’t have the pieces to cover for a disappointing season from one of the veterans.

The Jays In One Sentence: Once again the Blue Jays made some big splashes in the offseason but stopped short of adding all the pieces they need, especially pitching.

Sanchez: Red Sox agree to deal with Yoan Moncada

(Jesse Sanchez)
(Jesse Sanchez)

10:43am: Brian Cashman told Dan Barbarisi the team made their “final and best offer” yesterday but were told by David Hastings, Moncada’s representative, it wasn’t good enough.

10:15am: The Yankees offered Moncada $25M and were willing to go to $27M, according to Sherman. So they were outbid by $4.5M, which is really $9M with the penalty. Though that assumes Boston wouldn’t have raised their offer. Either way, they bid just enough to not get him.

9:53am: Joel Sherman says Moncada is getting $31.5M. Add in the penalty and it’s $63M total.

9:12am: Once again, the Yankees did not sign a top Cuban free agent. Jesse Sanchez reports the Red Sox have agreed to sign 19-year-old infielder Yoan Moncada for a bonus in the $30M range. Including the tax for exceeding their bonus pool, the total investment is $60M up front.

The Yankees worked Moncada out privately three times, including twice last week. By all accounts the team loved his talent, so it seems they fell short financially, which is dumb. Hal Steinbrenner and the rest of the brass have been talking about building from within and yet they stopped short of signing a projected star.

The Yankees have not signed a top Cuban free agent since Jose Contreras more than a decade ago, and he blew up in their face. At some point they’re going to have to get back in the game though. They can’t ignore a talent source like that, especially since several top Cuban players have actually exceeded expectations (Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig, specifically.)

Because they exceeded their spending pool last summer, the Yankees will not be able to sign an international player for more than $300,000 during the 2015-16 and 2016-17 signing periods. Moncada was basically their last chance to land a top international talent for nothing but money for another two years.

Bradford: Red Sox hire Yankees hitting coach candidate Chili Davis

Via Rob Bradford: The Red Sox are hiring Athletics hitting coach Chili Davis to be their new hitting coach. The Yankees interviewed Davis for the same role last week, so this takes him out of the running. New York also interviewed Rangers hitting coach Dave Magadan as well as some other unnamed candidates. They could name a new hitting coach as soon as Tuesday.

9/26-9/28 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox


Boy these late-season Yankees-Red Sox series have lost something off their fastball these last few years, haven’t they? Both teams have already been eliminated from postseason contention, so they will wrap-up their seasons this weekend with nothing more than bragging rights on the line. The Yankees are 10-6 against the Red Sox this year, including 4-2 at Fenway Park.

What Have They Done Lately?
The BoSox just took two of three from the Rays — they outscored them 22-4 in the last two games — but they’ve won only seven of their last 17 games. They are 70-89 with a -82 run differential overall, both the fourth worst marks in the AL.

At 3.88 runs per game with a team 90 wRC+, the Red Sox are the Yankees’ equal offensively. That’s not a compliment. (The Yankees average 3.88 runs per game with a team 91 wRC+.) Boston will be without 1B Mike Napoli (123 wRC+), 2B Dustin Pedroia (99 wRC+), UTIL Brock Holt (98 wRC+), and OF Shane Victorino this weekend (88 wRC+). They’re all hurt and have been shut down for the season. DH David Ortiz (135 wRC+) is dealing with wrist inflammation and he is unlikely to play as well.

Bogaerts. (Jim Rogash/Getty)
Bogaerts. (Jim Rogash/Getty)

With all those familiar names out of action, manager John Farrell builds his lineup around OF Yoenis Cespedes (110 wRC+) and 1B Allen Craig (29 wRC+). Craig has looked completely helpless at the plate since hurting his foot last year. 2B Mookie Betts (131 wRC+) is having a nice late-season cameo and SS Xander Bogaerts (82 wRC+) has been better the last two weeks or so. The recently signed OF Rusney Castillo (79 wRC+ in very limited time) is still trying to find his way. OF Daniel Nava (99 wRC+) rakes against righties (118 wRC+).

The rest of the lineup includes 3B Will Middlebrooks (44 wRC+) and C Christian Vazquez (69 wRC+). OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (47 wRC+) seems to have played his way out of the organization’s plans and is now just a defensive replacement, even with all the injuries late in the season. C David Ross (74 wRC+) is the backup catcher. The long list of September call-ups includes C Dan Butler, C Ryan Lavarnway, 3B Garin Cecchini, IF Carlos Rivero, IF Jemile Weeks, and OF Bryce Brentz.

Pitching Matchups

Friday: LHP Chris Capuano (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Steven Wright (vs. NYY)
The Red Sox have already shut down their various young starters and the 30-year-old Wright is getting the spot start tonight. He’s appeared in five games for Boston this year, all in relief, allowing six runs in 16 innings with 18 strikeouts and two walks. Wright had a 3.41 ERA (3.88 FIP) in 15 starts and 95 innings down in Triple-A this summer. His strikeout (6.44 K/9 and 17.6 K%), walk (2.8 BB/9 and 5.7 BB%), and homer (0.85 HR/9) rates down in Pawtucket range between okay and good. Ready to be surprised? Wright is a knuckleballer. He throws his mid-70s knuckler roughly three-fourths of the time, filling in the gaps with low-90s fastballs and mid-60s curveballs. I can’t help but wonder if those curveballs are just sloppy knuckleballs being misclassified by PitchFX. I guess we’ll find out tonight. Wright has never faced the Yankees but he did make two starts against Triple-A Scranton this year. Jose Pirela, Zelous Wheeler, John Ryan Murphy, and Austin Romine know what’s up.

Saturday: RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Joe Kelly (vs. NYY)
Kelly, 26, was the centerpiece of the John Lackey trade a few weeks back now that Craig is hitting like a pitcher. He has a 4.15 ERA (4.46 FIP) in 16 starts and 89 total inning this year, including a 4.00 ERA (4.81 FIP) in nine starts for Boston. His overall strikeout (6.37 K/9 and 16.3 K%) and walk (4.04 BB/9 and 10.4 BB%) rates stink, though he gets plenty of grounders (55.6%) and keeps the ball in the park (0.81 HR/9 and 12.9 HR/FB%). Lefties (.320 wOBA) have hit Kelly a little harder than righties (.299 wOBA). A mid-90s two-seamer is his main pitch, which he’ll use to set up low-80s changeups and upper-70s curveballs. He’ll throw a handful of mid-90s four-seamers and mid-80s sliders per start as well. Kelly held the Yankees to three runs in 6.2 innings earlier this month.

Buchholz. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)
Buchholz. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Sunday: RHP Michael Pineda (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Clay Buchholz (vs. NYY)
In the span of a few days in late-July, the 30-year-old Buchholz went from being the Red Sox’s nominal number four starter to their staff ace. He has a 5.31 ERA (4.06 FIP) in 27 starts and 164.1 innings this year, with peripherals that are decent across the board: 7.01 K/9 (18.0 K%), 2.90 BB/9 (7.4 BB%), 0.93 HR/9 (9.6 HR/FB%), and 46.4% grounders. Buchholz has been hit much harder by lefties (.357 wOBA) than righties (.306 wOBA) this season. As always, Buchholz uses low-90s two and four-seamers as well as an upper-80s cutter to set up his knockout low-80s changeup and occasionally knockout upper-70s curveball. The Yankees scored four runs (two earned) in six innings against him in April, then seven runs in five innings in August.

Bullpen Status
The Yankees broke RHP Koji Uehara (3.08 FIP) with the Chase Headley walk-off homer game a few weeks ago. He was removed from the closer role after that game and has pitch very sparingly since. RHP Edward Mujica (3.70 FIP) is now pitching the ninth inning. RHP Junichi Tazawa (2.94 FIP) is his primary setup man and LHP Tommy Layne (3.08 FIP) will see the high-leverage matchup situations.

RHP Burke Badenhop (3.10 FIP), RHP Alex Wilson (4.01 FIP), and LHP Craig Breslow (5.34 FIP) are Farrell’s other bullpen regulars. The September call-ups are RHP Matt Barnes, LHP Drake Britton, LHP Edwin Escobar, and RHP Heath Hembree. Uehara and Wilson each threw a low-stress inning last night. Head over to our Bullpen Workload page for details on the Yankees’ bullpen, then head over to Over The Monster for everything you could possibly want to know about the Red Sox.

9/2-9/4 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox


Labor Day weekend is over and it’s time for another surprisingly unimportant Yankees-Red Sox series. I mean, it’s not totally meaningless, the Yankees aren’t completely out of the second wildcard race, but the Red Sox are. In fact, they’re on pace to finish with the second worst record by a defending World Series champion in baseball history, behind only the ain’t even tryin’ 1998 Marlins. The Yankees are 8-5 against Boston this season, including 4-3 in the Bronx.

What Have They Done Lately?
The Sawx split four games with the Rays in Tampa over the holiday weekend and they’ve lost eleven of their last 15 games overall. Boston is 12-17 since trading away all their good pitchers at the deadline and they currently sit in last place in the AL East at 60-77 with a -73 run differential. That is the fifth worst record in all of baseball.

The Red Sox have averaged 3.84 runs per game with a team 89 wRC+ this year, giving them a comfortably below-average offense overall. Since the trade deadline they are averaging 3.83 runs per game with a 101 wRC+. So they’re hitting better without scoring more runs, if that makes sense. 2B Dustin Pedroia (101 wRC+) is unlikely to play this series due to concussion symptoms after getting elbowed in the head during a play at second base. OF Shane Victorino (87 wRC+) is done for the year following back surgery.

Bogaerts. (Jim Rogash/Getty)
Bogaerts. (Jim Rogash/Getty)

Manager John Farrell’s new-look lineup is built around the power bats of OF Yoenis Cespedes (112 wRC+), DH David Ortiz (135 wRC+), and 1B Mike Napoli (127 wRC+). Ortiz and Napoli always kill the Yankees, but you knew that already. New pickup 1B/OF Allen Craig (78 wRC+) hasn’t hit since hurting his foot last year and SS Xander Bogaerts (74 wRC+) has been a colossal disappointment this season. That guy was supposed to be well on his way to superstardom by now.

The rest of the regular lineup includes UTIL Brock Holt (101 wRC+), who has slowed down quite a bit in recent weeks, and platoon OF Daniel Nava (87 wRC+). 3B Will Middlebrooks (47 wRC+) still plays regularly for whatever reason. C Christian Vazquez (52 wRC+) and C David Ross (67 wRC+) split time behind the plate. 2B/OF Mookie Betts (119 wRC+ in limited time) is getting an extended audition this month and the bench includes September call-ups IF Jemile Weeks and IF Carlos Rivero.

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday: RHP Shane Greene (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Joe Kelly (vs. NYY)
Boston acquired the 26-year-old Kelly from the Cardinals in the John Lackey trade and so far he has the same number of walks as strikeouts (18) with the Red Sox. He has a 4.14 ERA (4.57 FIP) in 12 starts and 63 innings overall this year, pairing mediocre strikeout (6.14 K/9 and 15.8 K%) and walk (4.00 BB/9 and 10.3 BB%) rates with an excellent grounder rate (53.1%). Kelly has done an okay job keeping the ball in the park (0.86 HR/9 and 12.5 HR/FB%) and his platoon split is tiny. A mid-90s two-seamer is his main pitch, which he’ll use to set up low-80s changeups and upper-70s curveballs. He’ll throw a handful of mid-90s four-seamers and mid-80s sliders per start as well. The Yankees did not see Kelly when they played the Cardinals earlier this year or the Red Sox last month.

Wednesday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Anthony Ranaudo (vs. NYY)
Ranaudo, 24, has three big league starts (18 innings) are under his belt, and he’s won them all despite a 4.50 ERA (6.57 FIP). He has more walks (4.00 BB/9 and 10.3 BB%) than strikeouts (3.50 K/9 and 9.0 K%) and gives up a ton of homers (2.00 HR/9 and 12.9 HR/FB%) because he gets so few grounders (31.1%). Righties (.356 wOBA) have hit him harder than lefties (.332 wOBA) in a small sample. Ranaudo is primarily a two-pitch pitcher who has thrown his low-90s four-seamer more than 75% of the time in the big leagues. An upper-70s curveball is his top secondary pitch, though he’ll also throw a handful of low-80s changeups per start. Ranaudo held New York to two runs in six innings in his first career start a few weeks ago.

(Jim Rogash/Getty)
Webster. (Jim Rogash/Getty)

Thursday: LHP Chris Capuano (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Allen Webster (vs. NYY)
The 24-year-old Webster, who was part of the big blockbuster trade with the Dodgers a few years ago, was the first young pitcher to get the call when the Red Sox started trading away their veteran hurlers earlier this year. He’s been awful, pitching to a 6.69 ERA (4.70 FIP) in seven starts and 35 innings, with more walks (5.91 BB/9 and 14.4 BB%) than strikeouts (5.40 K/9 and 14.4 K%). The only thing he’s done exceptionally well is limit homers (0.26 HR/9 and 2.8 HR/FB%), and that is an unsustainably low homerun rate. Webster has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground (45.9%) and his platoon split is nonexistent (.353 vs. .352 wOBAs). He’ll sit in the low-to-mid-90s with two and four-seam fastballs, backing them up with low-80s sliders and changeups. The Yankees hammered him for four runs and six walks in only two innings a few weeks ago.

Bullpen Status
Since they’re out of it, the Red Sox have said they will ease up on closer RHP Koji Uehara (2.66 FIP) and setup man RHP Junichi Tazawa (3.09 FIP) these last few weeks to control their workload. Both pitched a ton the first five months of the season. RHP Edward Mujica (3.77 FIP) is going to see some save opportunities in the meantime.

RHP Burke Badenhop (3.22 FIP) and LHP Craig Breslow (5.18 FIP) are Farrell’s other bullpen regulars while guys like LHP Tommy Layne (3.13 FIP) and RHP Alex Wilson (3.89 FIP) were called up in recent weeks. Knuckleballer RHP Steven Wright was the club’s only pitching call-up when rosters expanded yesterday. Badenhop, Breslow, Tazawa, Mujica, and Layne all pitched yesterday, none more than an inning. Our Bullpen Workload page has details on Joe Girardi‘s relievers. Head over to Over The Monster for everything you need to know about the Red Sox.