Carlos Santana Archives - River Avenue Blues

The Mariners and the possibility of a Carlos Santana trade

December 4, 2018 by Mike

I’ll say this much: Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto is acting very decisively this offseason. The Mariners are tearing their roster apart and yesterday Dipoto completed his fifth trade of the winter, sending Jean Segura and two relievers to the Phillies for J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana. Similar to the Yankees and the Justus Sheffield/James Paxton trade, the Phillies sent a potential future Segura to the Mariners in Crawford for the actual Segura.

As for Santana, he was included in the trade to offset salary — he’s owed $35M the next two years whereas Segura is owed $60.4M the next four years — and because he and Rhys Hoskins on the same roster in the non-DH league just doesn’t work. The Phillies get a big upgrade at short, some bullpen depth, and they also get to move Hoskins back to his natural first base. The Mariners get Crawford and salary relief and … that’s it? That’s it, I guess.

This past season the 32-year-old Santana mustered a .229/.352/.414 (109 wRC+) batting line with 24 home runs and more walks (110) than strikeouts (93) in his first year with the Phillies. That is clearly down from his sustained 125 wRC+ or so peak from 2011-17, though a miserable April (63 wRC+) overshadowed what was otherwise a typical Carlos Santana season (119 wRC+ after May 1st). A player struggled in his first month with his new team. It happens.

In all likelihood the Mariners will trade Santana at some point before Spring Training. Dipoto is going hard after this rebuild and there’s no real reason to keep Santana. Santana turns 33 soon after Opening Day and first base only guys usually don’t gain trade value at that age. Seattle will eat some money and flip him elsewhere, a move that could interest the Yankees. I know I’m not the only one who thought about it. Let’s talk this out.

1. What would the Yankees do with Santana, exactly? Put him at first base. Or maybe DH with Giancarlo Stanton taking up permanent residence in left field. Santana has been a very productive hitter throughout his career and he brings a healthy dose of old player skills — old player skills in that they tend to age well, historically — in his patience and power. Two years of Santana? It’s not a bad little gamble at the right price.

Right now the Yankees have Luke Voit and Greg Bird penciled in at first base. Voit was awesome this past season and he deserves at least a long look in Spring Training. That said, his big league track record consists of exactly one (1) month, and that month is September, which is a terrible time to evaluate players. Bird? He was awful this year and hurt the last three years. He’s become Allen Craig without all the good years.

Going with Santana at first base would be the safe move. Get the veteran dude who had a .352 OBP in a down year and has averaged 27 homers the last three seasons, and would help the balance the right-handed heavy lineup with his switch-hitting bat. The Yankees would be opting for the safe Santana over the upside of Voit, basically. For what it’s worth, their 2019 Steamer projections:

Santana: .243/.359/.447 (119 wRC+) with 26 homers and +2.3 WAR
Voit: .262/.336/.460 (115 wRC+) with 21 homers and +1.5 WAR

Hmmm. Projections are not predictions, remember. They are an attempt to estimate talent level. At least one projection system sees soon-to-be 33-year-old Santana and soon-to-be 28-year-old Voit as similar talents. Both 15% to 20% above-average offensively and +2 WAR overall. That said, Voit’s projection is a little more uncertain than Santana’s given his lack of big league time.

Voit did some very good things in his big league stint this past season (Bird not so much), specifically hitting the ball hard and getting it in the air. Do that and good things happen. Example: Santana. He’s been crushing the ball and getting it airborne for the better part of a decade now, and the result has been a very long and productive Major League career. Going with the proven commodity wouldn’t be unreasonable, I don’t think.

2. What would it cost? Eh, it’s hard to say. Santana is owed $17M in 2019 and $17.5M in 2020 before a $17.5M club option ($500,000 buyout) comes into play in 2021. I have to imagine the Mariners will eat some of that to facilitate a trade. Santana wouldn’t get two years at $35M guaranteed as a free agent right now. Either Seattle eats some money or they take back a player(s) to offset salary a la Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade.

I don’t think Santana would be a straight salary dump, however. I think there would be enough interest — the Rockies, Twins, Rays, and even the Red Sox stand out as potential landing spots — that the Mariners would get something decent for Santana. One or two mid-range prospects. Someone in, say, the 5-10 range or two prospects in the 11-20 range of an organizational top 30 list. Too much? I guess it depends how much money the Mariners eat.

If Seattle pays Santana down to a $10M a year player or so, either by eating salary or taking on contracts in return, giving up one or two mid-range prospects seems perfectly reasonable to me. Those mid-range guys are exactly the type of prospects a win now team should be willing to trade for an upgrade at the MLB level, especially when you have a pitching heavy farm system like the Yankees. (Pitchers break, man. Trade ’em all.)

3. If you want a new first baseman, why not just sign a free agent instead? Good question, loyal reader. The answer is the free agent first base class stinks. It stinks. The best first basemen on the market are Justin Bour, Matt Adams, and Lucas Duda. None of those guys move the needle for me. I guess you could sign Marwin Gonzalez and put him at first base, a position he’s played plenty in the past, but that’s a waste of his versatility.

I suppose signing Bryce Harper and moving him to first base is an option, albeit one that doesn’t seem particularly likely to me. Besides, Harper’s a special case. A team is not basing that $300M+ ($400M+?) decision on who they have at first base anyway. Realistically, the first base free agent class is terrible. At the right price, meaning one or two non-top prospects and $20M over the next two years, I’d take Santana over every single free agent first basemen.

* * *

Joel Sherman speculated (key word: speculated) about a Jacoby Ellsbury for Carlos Santana trade yesterday but that doesn’t seem all that realistic to me, even with the money kinda sorta matching up. The Yankees would have to kick in prospects to make it the trade worth it for Seattle, presumably pretty good ones to get them to stay payroll neutral. Otherwise they’d just trade Santana elsewhere and get prospects and salary relief.

Ellsbury is a non-factor for the Yankees — the best case scenario next year is that he’s a 35-year-old speed guy coming off major hip surgery and uh — and if they could swing a trade in which they swap Ellsbury for Santana while kicking in a prospect to stay payroll neutral, it’d make an awful lot of sense. Assuming ownership is willing to give up those sweet insurance dollars and assuming Santana is actually an upgrade at first base, that is.

First base is not a priority for the Yankees this offseason and it seems to me that, if they’re going to make a move at first base, it’ll be for someone who is a clear upgrade. Not Santana who is kinda sorta in decline. Paul Goldschmidt would make sense. As would Matt Carpenter, who I suppose could become available if the Cardinals nab Goldschmidt, but probably not. Guys like that would make the most sense for the Yankees. Santana’s not in that tier of players.

Had Voit not done what he did this past season with such promising underlying skills — again, this dude hammered the ball, it’s not like he put up those numbers with bloops and seeing eye singles — I think a Santana trade would be much more realistic for the Yankees. Even as he declines, he still gets on base and pops dingers, and switch-hits. That’s valuable. Enough to give up prospects and take on a bunch of money? Eh, maybe not with what Voit showed.

Plan B

November 18, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno

Ah, what might have been… (Elsa/Getty Images)

While little has happened in terms of hot stove action, the Yankees are still poised for a seminal offseason. If they sign Manny Machado and Bryce Harper and Patrick Corbin and…there will be ripple effects on the franchise for years, even a decade to come. The same will be true if the Yankees don’t go big and opt not to sign all or any of those players. I’ve been clear that I want the team to flex its financial muscles and go, in Brian Cashman’s words, ‘big game hunting,’ but I have my doubts that it will happen. Let’s say my doubts aren’t unfounded and my Plan A of “sign the hell out of everyone” doesn’t come true. What’s my Plan B look like?

I suppose I should acknowledge that my Plan B would probably be the Plan A for most organizations, but given the financial resources of the Yankees, their Plan B could be more expensive.

If Machado and Harper are the main parts of Plan A, their Plan be coutnerparts should both be from the infield and the outfield respectively. How about Marwin Gonzalez and Michael Brantley? Gonzalez features a league average bat and he can play all over the place, both infield and outfield. This sort of versatility will be good for the Yankees once Didi Gregorius returns from injury. I considered Jed Lowrie for this spot, but he will likely get a chance to start at second all year instead of having to settle for being a backup or supersub when Didi gets back. Gonzalez is a bit more suited for that role.

Even though the Yankees brought back Brett Gardner and he could start, they’re not paying him starter money and he’s probably not of that caliber anymore. Enter Michael Brantley. He reestablished himself last year, playing in 143 games, hitting to the tune of a 124 wRC+. He may not bring a ton of power–career .135 ISO–but he has an acceptable career walk rate (7.8%) and a low strikeout rate (10.7%) and would give the Yankees stability at the bottom of the lineup. Gardner could still be a suitable defensive caddie for Brantley in the later innings, too.

This next move should be part of Plan A, but I’ll include it here as it might be superfluous if the Yankees do get Harper and Machado: swing a trade for Carlos Santana of the Phillies. Greg Bird can’t be trusted at first and without the presence of Harper and/or Machado, the Yankees can’t afford to gamble on Luke Voit repeating–or approximating–his late 2018 run. Santana is a steady offensive presence who offers patience, power, and a relatively low strikeout rate for a guy with a .195 career ISO. While he’s older and more expensive than the incumbent(s), he’s a safer bet to produce at a high level. Add in some DH days for health and you’ll have an even more productive player (who already plays 155+ games a year).

On the pitching side, Corbin is definitely Plan A, as would be swinging a trade for Cory Kluber or Carlos Carrasco. The only thing left to do, really, would be re-sign JA Happ. I don’t really love any of the other options, unless you could entice Charlie Morton to come on over. For a moment, I thought about keeping Sonny Gray, but I don’t see any way that happens, even if he is a great bounceback candidate.

If the Yankees have to go with a Plan B, it probably makes the most sense to go with the pitching side of things. That needs more improvement than the lineup. However, again, there’s no reason the Yankees can’t go with a Plan A approach. They have the money. They have the space. Get it done.

2017 Winter Meetings Open Thread: Tuesday

December 12, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

The first day of the Winter Meetings came and went with little activity. At least aside from that big Giancarlo Stanton press conference, of course. There were a few low-profile signings and the usual array of rumors, yet most of the top free agents remain unsigned. That’ll change soon enough. Will the Yankees sign one of those free agents? Eh, hard to see it after Stanton.

“We have to do more. We have unfinished business,” said Brian Cashman following the Stanton press conference yesterday. “We have payroll space because we have more work to do. (The Stanton trade) fits because we still have room to accomplish all of our stated goals, but obviously it takes up some of that space, clearly.”

Yesterday we learned the Yankees have interest their 2008 first round pick, Pirates righty Gerrit Cole. Pitching help was mentioned more than a few times after the Stanton press conference. Once again, we’re going to keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumors from the Winter Meetings right here, so make sure you check back for updates. All timestamps are ET.

5:18pm: The Yankees are working hard to add a starting pitcher, so says Aaron Boone. Boone is still new here. I don’t know if he’s just saying that to say it, or because the Yankees are moving down the line with a trade or free agent. Probably the former. [Kuty]
4:47pm: Brian Cashman has been talking to Frazier’s agent now that third base is open. [Bryan Hoch]
2:46pm: It is very possible the Yankees will add two starting pitchers. In all likelihood, they’d trade for a younger pitcher under control and re-sign CC Sabathia [Kuty]
2:31pm: The Yankees are one of several teams to check in with the Royals about lefty Danny Duffy. There is currently no traction with any team, though that can change quick. [Joel Sherman]
12:20pm: If you’re thinking about a Todd Frazier reunion in the wake of the Headley trade, Frazier has let teams know he wants a multi-year contract. [Brendan Kuty]
11:17am: The Yankees have traded Chase Headley and Bryan Mitchell to the Padres for Jabari Blash. The deal clears Headley’s entire $13M salary. Here’s our post.
10:27am: The Yankees are trying to trade for a starter and have both Michael Fulmer and Patrick Corbin “on their radar in early talks.” Corbin will be a free agent next year. Fulmer is under control for another few years. [Bob Nightengale]
9:30am: The Pirates are willing to listen to offers for Cole, though they are not actively shopping him and they do not appear to be particularly motivated to trade him this week. [Buster Olney, Rob Biertempfel]
9:30am: It is “unlikely” Jacoby Ellsbury will waive his no-trade clause to leave the Yankees. He is no higher than fifth on the outfield depth chart, but hey, the Yankees look pretty good. I wouldn’t want to leave either. [Mark Feinsand]
9:30am: At some point between the Shohei Ohtani rejection and the Stanton trade, the Yankees expressed interest in Carlo Santana. That’s not happening now, obviously. [Ken Davidoff]

(Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.)

Mailbag: Beltran, Gomes, Payroll, Ethier, Arroyo

October 18, 2013 by Mike 57 Comments

Eight questions and seven answers this week, so let’s do this rapid fire style. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us whatever throughout the week.

Vinny asks: Who would you rather have in right field next year, Carlos Beltran or Curtis Granderson?

In a vacuum, Beltran. No doubt about it. But this isn’t a vacuum. In reality, we’re talking about Beltran and a 30-something overall draft pick or Granderson and the 18th overall pick. There’s also the contract size to consider. I think Beltran winds up with a similar deal to the one he has now, meaning two years and $26M or so. Granderson could wind up with three years and $39-45M. Something like that. Injury history (Beltran’s knees vs. Granderson’s fluky hit-by-pitches), potential age-related decline (Beltran is four years older than Granderson), and the team’s current situation (are they really good enough to win during Beltran’s two years?) all have to be considered. I’d take Beltran though, the difference between the 18th pick and a 30-something pick is pretty small.

Bill asks: How much do you think a pitcher can theoretically make or lose based on a few postseason starts? Take Ricky Nolasco the other night. Would an eight-inning, 11-strikeout game have given him a different label going into this offseason and been worth that much more?

Unless a guy gets hurt, very small. Remember, C.J. Wilson was awful for the Rangers during the 2011 postseason (5.79 ERA and 6.31 FIP in 28 innings) and it didn’t matter at all. He still got a very fair contract and reportedly turned down even more money from the Marlins to sign with the Angels. Maybe a history of good or bad postseason performance would affect a player’s market value, but I don’t think one individual postseason or series or start would. Teams are too smart to let one game change their valuation of a player that much.

Mark asks: Not that more payroll is the answer to the Yankees’ problems, but say hypothetically they were to win the World Series with a 2014 team payroll of say $210 million, would the increased television ratings, higher attendance and playoff ticket revenue make a major dent in the luxury tax they would be assessed for going over their $189 million target? Not sure if this is calculable or not, but it seems like it sure bears some serious discussion if I were them.

A $210M payroll means they’d be paying an extra $31.5M compared to staying under the luxury tax threshold ($21M in overages plus $10.5M in tax). Vince Gennaro’s work has shown that simply making the postseason is worth about $40M in increased revenue for the Yankees while winning the World Series is worth about $70M. His study and calculations were done in 2007, before the new Yankee Stadium opened and baseball’s economics changed with the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement. I have to think those $40M and $70M figures are a bit light these days. So yes, I feel very comfortable saying winning the World Series with a $210M payroll is far more lucrative than not making the postseason with a $189M payroll. Far, far more lucrative. Of course, they could always win a title at $189M. I’m sure the Yankees have run their own numbers. They aren’t doing this on a whim.

Sean asks: With the emergence of Yan Gomes as the everyday catcher, do you think the Indians would be willing to deal Carlos Santana? I know they’ve used him at first-base and at DH, but Santana has apparently made it clear that he wants to play behind the plate. What sort of package do you think we’re looking at for the Yanks to land him? Do you think he’s a better option than signing Brian McCann?

Guilherme asks: I want to know what you guys think about Yan Gomes. Would he be a fit? For what the Indians would be willing to trade him?

Might as well lump these two together. I do think there’s a chance the Indians will be open to trading either Santana or Gomes for pitching help this winter, and I suppose the choice between the two may come down to the offers. Santana is far more established but more expensive (owed $17.75M through 2016 with an option for 2017) while Gomes has five years of team control and only 300 or so awesome plate appearances to his credit. Unless the Indians love them some David Phelps or Michael Pineda, I’m not sure what the Yankees could give them for Santana or Gomes aside from Ivan Nova. I’d happily take either catcher though. Backstops who can actually hit (!) and are under contract/control at an affordable rate for another few years are a super hot commodity.

Joey asks: When a scout is evaluating prospects, do they ever take what organization he is in in to consideration? What I mean by that is if the Yankees struggle to develop SP and the Rays crank them out year after year, will the scout look at the player and assume the Yankees can’t develop this guy in to a SP where maybe they says the Rays can?

They shouldn’t. The scout is evaluating a player’s package of tools and those don’t change from organization to organization. Scouts might look at a player and know their organization has a chance to help him develop more than another, but I don’t think that would change his evaluation. Gary Sanchez’s physically ability is Gary Sanchez’s physical ability whether he’s a Yankee or a Twin or a Padre.

Brad asks: What are your thoughts on going after Bronson Arroyo this winter? He’s an innings-eater and he’s had experience in the AL East. I think we need a veteran arm to round out the rotation, especially if Hiroki Kuroda retires.

No way. It’s been a long time since Arroyo pitched in the AL East and he isn’t close to the same pitcher anymore. Over the last three seasons, he has a 5.52 K/9 (15.1%), a 1.43 BB/9 (14.0% HR/FB), and the fifth slowest non-knuckleballer fastball in baseball (86.6 mph). There’s a small chance three of the four guys ahead of him (Barry Zito, Shaun Marcum, Jeff Francis) will never throw another big league pitch. (Mark Buehrle is the other.) On top of all of that, Arroyo wants a multi-year contract. Innings are good, you need guys to soak up some innings, but I have no interest in bringing a soon-to-be 37-year-old guy with fringe stuff into the AL East and a small ballpark.

Kevin asks: Doesn’t Andre Ethier make sense if the Dodgers are willing to eat some salary and make him, say, a $7M player? He gets on base and doesn’t strike out that much and can take advantage of right field. I know he’s not any good on defense but they could pair him with someone like Justin Ruggiano and have one of the most productive corner outfields in the league.

Spending $7M on an injury-prone DH doesn’t sound like a great idea. Ethier has consistently been a 120-ish wRC+ player throughout his career but he can’t hit lefties at all (73 wRC+ this year and 67 wRC+ since 2011) and is a major defensive liability. I suppose you could hide him in right field for another year or two, but he’s already 31 and will turn 32 right around Opening Day. Ethier can mash righties and there is definitely a spot for him in the Yankees lineup, but that’s an awful lot of money — he is under contract through 2017, remember, so you’re essentially talking about a four-year, $28M contract if the Dodgers eat enough salary to make him a $7M a year player — for a very limited player. With payroll coming down, I’m more than happy to continue dumpster diving for Raul Ibanez types to fill that DH spot. I think that’s the last place the Yankees should commit huge bucks.

Scouting The Trade Market: Carlos Santana

December 3, 2012 by Mike 44 Comments

The Yankees were dealt a rather significant blow late last week when Russell Martin agreed to a two-year contract with the Pirates. The free agent market is short on starting-caliber catchers and it’s not often those guys get traded either, so replacing Russ will be very difficult. Unfortunately there isn’t much internal help either.

It’s no secret the Indians are in a full-rebuild mode (again), dangling pretty much every useful player on their roster. One of their best players is one of the game’s top young catchers, 26-year-old Carlos Santana. Cleveland originally acquired him from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake trade four years ago, and he made his big league debut a roughly two years later. He just completed his second full big league season. Santana is an excellent young player as I’m sure you know, but let’s break down the specifics of his game.

The Pros

Santana hit .252/.365/.420 (120 wRC+) this year and is a career .247/.363/.443 (124 wRC+) hitter in over 1,400 plate appearances. He’s a switch-hitter as well, with a career 118 wRC+ as a left-handed batter and 138 as a righty.
In true Yankee fashion, Santana is a power and patience machine. He hit 27 homers a year ago and 45 total in his two full seasons (.193 ISO), second most among all catchers behind Mike Napoli. Santana also owns a stellar 15.4% walk rate (14.9% this year), and over the last two years it’s 14.8%. Only Jose Bautista, Joey Votto, Adam Dunn, and Carlos Pena have drawn free passes at a higher rate since 2011.
Despite all those walks and deep counts, Santana’s career strikeout rate is a touch better than league average at 18.0% (16.6% in 2012). His career 78.2% contact rate is basically league average as well, which is pretty good for a guy who works a lot of counts and sees a lot of breaking balls.
In addition to catcher, Santana also has over 80 career big league starts at first base and can play the position adequately. The Indians even stuck him in left field for a few innings during a blowout this year, but I wouldn’t get excited over that.
The Indians signed Santana to a five-year contract extension worth $21M earlier this year (covering 2012-2016), so a $4.2M average annual value for luxury tax purposes. The deal also includes a club option ($12M or $1.2M buyout) for 2017, so he’s not going to be a free agent anytime soon.

The Cons

Santana is not a great hitter for average because he hits a ton of infield pop-ups. More than 5.5% of his career balls in play are infield pop-ups, and while that might not sound like much, it’s the 25th highest rate in baseball over the last three years (min. 1,000 PA). Infield pop-ups are essentially an automatic out, hence his career .271 BABIP and mid-.200s average.
He’s not a great defensive catcher at all. Santana led the league in passed balls this year (ten) and is only league-average in terms of throwing out base-stealers (27%). He’s rated in the bottom five of recent pitching framing rankings and in the bottom quarter of 2012 catcher defense rankings.
Santana has only started 100+ games behind the plate once: 106 split between High-A and Double-A in 2008. He’s started 88 and 95 games behind the plate the last two years, though it’s important to note that he often plays first base (or DH, point is they don’t take his bat out of the lineup) when he’s not catching, so the Indians have used him behind the plate less frequently than a typical starting backstop.
Santana has suffered two major injuries in the last four years, though the torn knee ligaments in 2010 was the result of the collision at the plate. He also broke the hamate bone in his right wrist in 2009 while playing winter ball. A foul ball off the mask sent him to the 7-day concussion DL last year. Two of those injuries are fluky, but injuries are injuries.

If the Yankees wanted to swing a massive multi-player blockbuster to address most (or all) of their needs all at once, the Indians match up well as a trade partner. In addition to a catcher in Santana they could offer a right fielder (Shin-Soo Choo), a starting pitcher (Justin Masterson), a late-inning reliever (Chris Perez), a high-end infielder (Asdrubal Cabrera), and a low-end utility infielder (Mike Aviles or Jason Donald). Obviously it’s extremely unlikely the Yankees would acquire (or even look to acquire) all seven of those players at once, but the point is there’s potential to expand a deal.

Santana would fill several long-term needs for the Yankees. He’d obviously give them a replacement for Martin, but more importantly he would add power from the right side and another legitimate middle of the order bat to the lineup. With Nick Swisher gone and both Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez in the middle of multi-year fades, finding another three- or four-hole type of hitter to complement Robinson Cano is more important than maybe the Yankees want to admit. There’s an awful lot to like about adding Santana to the Yankees, at least on the offensive side of the ball.

A player like this — a proven above-average switch-hitter who can at least fake a premium position and is both signed dirt cheap long-term and is several years away from his 30th birthday — has substantial trade value. I’m not normally one to throw comps around, but Santana sure has a lot of Jorge Posada in him, no? Obviously he’s not nearly as accomplished as Posada, but a switch-hitting catcher with power and patience who kinda sucks behind the plate? Yep, that’s Jorge. I’m not sure if the Yankees have the pieces to land a player of Santana’s caliber via trade — the Indians are reportedly looking for young pitching and David Phelps & Ivan Nova duo ain’t gonna cut it — and there’s no indication that he’s even available, but with Cleveland shopping everyone it sure wouldn’t hurt to ask.