Archive for C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia, the anti-Unit
Posted by: | CommentsTwo things I love about the 2009 Yankees are that they have a real first baseman, and that they have a real ace pitcher. Since the Clemens/Wells/Pettitte troika left after the 2003 season, the team has struggled to find adequate replacements for top-end performance. They tried in 2004 with Javy Vazquez and Kevin Brown, and then tried again in 2005 with Randy Johnson and Carl Pavano. Finally, in 2009 they have CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.
CC is about as far away from the last supposed ace, Randy Johnson, as one can possibly get. CC is approachable and affable. Randy welcomed himself to the city by shoving a cameraman. Reporters love talking to CC, but couldn’t get near Randy. The list goes on and on. YES Network’s Jon Lane notes the differences.
When Randy Johnson was here, you were strongly advised to stand at least 10 feet from him and his locker. Reporters would jokingly offer a cash reward if someone were to tap him on his shoulder and ask, “Hey, how’s it going?” Sabathia would actually respond, telling you that it’s all good. He’s that smooth. He’s the anti-Big Unit. Game 1 of the American League Championship Series is the best example to date. When Sabathia worked the count to 2-2 to Napoli, 49,688 people chanted “CC! CC!” in unison. It was the first time we’ve heard that from Yankees fans, and the first time in a long time the Yankees had the true definition of an ace on the mound working deep into October.
I suppose the crowd might have chanted for Randy had the Yankees gone deep into the playoffs and he pitched well. But we all know how Randy fared once the calendar flipped to October. Just another way that CC is the anti-Unit.
The Second Guess: CC in the 8th
Posted by: | CommentsWhen the 8th inning rolled around last night, the Yanks held a close but comfortable 4-1 lead over the Angels. CC Sabathia had thrown his 98th pitch to strike out Mike Napoli in the 7th, and he left with a fist pump and roar. Would be the Big Man come for an encore?
Indeed, as the Yanks hit in the 7th, no one was warming in their bullpen, and Sabathia came out for a 15-pitch 8th inning. He turned the ball over to Mo and eventually recorded the win. At the time, I thought nothing of it. CC, after all, routinely throws 110+ pitches, and he was rolling. There was just no reason to take him out.
Others covering the team thought otherwise. Let’s take Pete Caldera who was “just wondering” the following:
The Yankees seem to have this game well in hand, have the bullpen rested and ready and for some reason have decided to ride CC Sabathia through eight innings and 113 pitches. While that may not be that odd – it is just a 4-1 game right now – the Yankees have openly spoken of using him three times in this series. Seven innings wasn’t enough?
That’s right; even in a game in which the Yanks silenced the Angels and beat them by a sound three-run margin, Joe Girardi will be second-guessed. I can see why. When managing a playoff series, it’s important to strategize for the entire series as well the game currently being played. The Yankees need to look ahead to wait awaits them down the road while, at the same time, they have to take care of their current business. To start the 8th, the team had a 92.6 percent win probability, and the Yanks’ bullpen — especially in the 8th and 9th innings — is a strength.
I, however, do not believe that leaving Sabathia in was the wrong decision. Erick Aybar, Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu were 0 for 8 against the lefty so far, and they hadn’t come close to touching him. The Yankees also had to win Game 1, and Sabathia was the known quantity. The Yanks knew how he was throwing, and if he showed signs of trouble in the 8th, they could have warmed up Phil Hughes or even Mariano Rivera in a jiffy.
Girardi does need to look forward to Game 4 and Game 7, but at the same time, he can’t risk turning over Game 1 to a different — and potentially lesser — pitcher than Sabathia because a potential Game 7 looms. Maybe the Yanks make it to Tuesday’s Game 4 up 3-0, and the Yanks don’t need to use Sabathia on short rest. Maybe they do. But last night, they had to win Game 1, and CC Sabathia pitching the 8th gave them their best shot at getting the ball to Mo in the 9th. 113 pitches? That’s nothing for CC.
CC stellar as Yanks grab Game 1
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Despite protestations from the Angels, Mark Teixeira’s foot was clearly on the bag when Torii Hunter was called out in the sixth inning.
Eight innings. Four hits. One run. Seven strike outs. That’s pure dominance from the Yanks’ Big Man, and that’s why they’re paying him the big bucks.
When the Yankees signed CC Sabathia this winter, a few analysts questioned Sabathia’s role on the Yanks. He didn’t throw particularly well against the Yanks in the 2007 ALDS and did worse against the Red Sox in the ALCS. Could the Yanks lean on Sabathia to carry them through an October run if he hadn’t yet enjoyed much October success?
Last week against the Twins, Sabathia didn’t have his best stuff and still walked away a winner. On Friday, amidst some brutal cold, a bit of a drizzle and a powerful wind that in the words of Johnny Damon was “playing havoc” out there, CC stifled the Angels. He threw 113 pitches in eight innings and just 37 were out of the strike zone. He recorded 11 outs on the ground, seven by the K and just six in the air. That is dominance.
“CC’s been doing that all year for us,” Derek Jeter said after the game. “He did in the first round and he did it tonight.”
The Angels, meanwhile, didn’t play their generally solid game. They made three errors and let an easy two-out pop up fall for an RBI hit. The Yanks capitalized and walked away 4-1 winners. They are now just three wins away from a World Series berth.
The Yanks got off on the right foot in the first inning. Derek Jeter knocked out yet another first inning single, and Johnny Damon moved him to third with a base knock of his own. Damon advanced to second on an error, and with no outs, the Yanks were primed for a big inning. Mark Teixiera took a 3-0 hack and popped out. Although A-Rod drove in a run with a sac fly, the Yanks were left with a runner on second and two outs when Hideki Matsui lifted a lazy pop up right to third base. Erick Aybar and Chone Figgins couldn’t figure out which Angel would catch though, and it landed with a thud on the infield dirt. Damon scored, and the Yanks had all the runs they would need.
As the game progress, the Angels toyed with disaster all night, but the Yankees couldn’t capitalize. The Yanks put two runners on the third, two on in the fourth, three in the fifth and three in the sixth, but the offense could plate just two of those runners. They left 11 men on base and went just 3 for 12 with runners in scoring position. The Yanks could have had more but for a play at the plate involving — who but? — Alex Rodriguez.
With two on in the fifth, Hideki Matsui doubled to left center, and Juan Rivera tumbled over himself trying to field it. Rob Thomson originally waved A-Rod on but threw up a stop sign too late for Alex to see it. Rodriguez headed home, but the thrown beat him. Although replays showed no tag, A-Rod was out as he bowled into Jeff Mathis. In another era, he would have been the goat, but tonight, the Yanks didn’t need the run.
In the sixth, they would add a fourth run, but why bother? CC just kept on rolling. He ran into one bit of trouble in the fourth when a Vladimir Guerrero double and a Kendry Morales single led to a run, but that would be all. He struck out Mike Napoli to end the 7th and pumped his fist emphatically as the crowd roared. “The stadium was rocking,” Sabathia said. “I was pretty pumped up.”
At just 98 pitches through seven, Sabathia went out for the 8th, and he served as his own Bridge to Mowhere. One-two-three went the Angels in the 8th and in came Rivera for the 9th. He walked Torii Hunter on four pitches, and Tim McCarver began predicting boom. But Mo was Mo was Mo. Vladimir Guerrero struck out; Juan Rivera flew out; and Kendry Morales followed suit.
As the strains of Frank Sinatra filled the air, Yankee fans left a very cold Yankee Stadium, quite pleased with their ace and enjoying the 1-0 lead in this best of seven ALCS. CC was every bit the ace the Yankees wanted and needed for this year, and the team stands just three wins away from a World Series appearance.
For a similar but different take on the Yanks’ Game 1 win over the Angels, check out my YESNetwork.com recap.
Yanks turning to Sabathia for Game 1
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Had the Twins won last night to force a Game 4 in the ALDS, CC Sabathia would have been on the mound this evening in an effort to bring the Yanks to the League Championship Series. Instead, Andy Pettitte and the Yanks’ bats wrapped up the series in Minnesota, and the Yankees have a week off in which they can set their rotation.
Although the Yanks have not made an announcement yet, it is all but official that CC Sabathia will start Game 1 of the ALCS. The big lefty will take the ball against the Angels on Friday, nine days after facing the Twins in Game 1 of the division series. The long layoff may mean that Sabathia is too fresh, but that’s a risk I’m happy to take.
Last week, Sabathia had a pretty good ALDS start. His final line — 6.2 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K — earned him a postseason win, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. For the first three innings, Sabathia labored. He needed a Jobaian 64 pitches to record nine outs and did not have his best fastball. Rather, he and Jorge Posada came up with a game plan that relied on change-ups and sliders instead. It worked as he needed just 49 pitches to record the last 12 outs.
In a sense, Sabathia is the perfect pitcher to face the Angels. Most important for a series against the Angels is the fact that Sabathia simply doesn’t issue many walks. To win against the Angels, it is important to avoid giving them free bases. As the team demonstrated against the Red Sox this week, they will capitalize against pitchers who give them walks. Although the Twins did not score much against A.J. Burnett and the Yanks during a Game 2 that featured no 1-2-3 innings, the Angels will not let the Yanks off the hook that easily.
Furthermore, as a lefty, Sabathia can cut down on the Angels’ running game. Not as sneaky with the pick-off move as Andy Pettitte is, Sabathia can try to keep Bobby Abreu and Chone Figgins, Anaheim’s two biggest base-stealing threats, closer to first.
With the advantages, Sabathia is primed to face the Angels at least twice and maybe three times. If the Yankees opt to take advantage of the extra day off during the season to go with three starters, Sabathia could pitch Game 1 on Friday, Game 4 on three days’ rest and Game 7 on full rest. Who needs a fourth starter?
Yet, despite this profile, the Angels, a right-hand hitting team, have given Sabathia trouble this year. He allowed four earned runs in 6.2 innings on May 2nd and five earned runs in 6.2 innings on July 12. In fact, the Angels were one of only two teams to beat CC twice this season. Still, there is no one I would rather see on the mound come Friday. With the K pitch working, Sabathia can neutralize the Angels. As Joe wrote earlier today, the Yanks’ good pitching will determine the extent of their October success. In the ALCS, as CC goes, so go the Yankees.
Playoff rotation comes into view
Posted by: | CommentsAs the Yanks prepare for a three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays to close out the season, the playoffs are looming large in the minds of the Bombers and their fans. With the pitching match-ups set for this weekend, we know a firm sense of the Yanks’ plans and can debate the merits of the Andy-and-A.J. decision.
Earlier this week, the Yankees announced that CC Sabathia would start on Friday night in search of his 20th win. Most of the Yanks’ A team will back him up. On Saturday, Andy Pettitte will take the ball in a final regular-season tune-up, and on Sunday, A.J. Burnett and the ALDS Game 1 lineup will earn themselves at least a few innings of time on the field. And so, as I’ve done once a week or so for the last few weeks, we extrapolate.
It’s safe to assume that the Yankees are going to take the longer ALDS series to avoid the Joba/Chad Gaudin decision that looms not as large as we might think (but more on that when and if the time comes). The pitching rotation, then, looks a little something like this:
| Date | Game | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 2 | vs. TB | Sabathia |
| Oct. 3 | vs. TB | Pettitte |
| Oct. 4 | vs. TB | Burnett |
| Oct. 5 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 6 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 7 | ALDS 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 8 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 9 | LDS 2 | Pettitte |
| Oct. 10 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 11 | ALDS 3 | Burnett |
| Oct. 12 | ALDS 4* | Sabathia |
| Oct. 13 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 14 | ALDS 5* | Pettitte |
We know that Chip Caray and Ron Darling will be manning the broadcast booth for the Yankees vs. Tigers/Twins. Now we have a pretty good idea who will be pitching.
On Wednesday, Joe tackled the Andy-and-A.J. debate and came to the conclusion I would have drawn. “I like A.J. as much as the next guy, he wrote, “but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.”
Personally, we’d all rather have CC Sabathia on the mound in the a do-or-die Game 5, but Game 4 could be just as important. Either the Yanks will try to close the door on the Tigers or Twins or the Bombers will have to win Game 4 to force Game 5. CC fights the bill for that match-up.
There is an interesting twist to the post-season pitching previews as well that I didn’t include in the chart. Right now, the Tigers hold a two-game lead over the Twins. In an ideal world, these two teams will tie so that they have to play a game on Tuesday. In an also-ideal world, the Twins will be a game behind the Tigers come Sunday. That day, you see, is Justin Verlander’s next start. If the Tigers face a must-win situation, they will start Verlander on Sunday, and he won’t be available to pitch on regular rest until Game 2. Although that would line him up to pitch Game 5, I’d take my chances with the rest of the Tigers’ rotation.
If the Tigers win a pair this weekend or if the Twins drop two to the Royals, the point will be moot. Verlander can rest until Game 1, and we’d have ourselves a good old fashioned pitcher’s battle to start the playoffs. I’m ready. Are you?
Yanks face a few postseason decisions
Posted by: | CommentsThere aren’t too many decisions left for the 2009 Yankees. Beyond some minor decisions on how to construct the postseason roster, there are only a few questions to ask. While some might be wondering if Molina will catch Burnett, I’ve got a bigger question in mind. Will the Yanks start Burnett in Game 2 or Game 3? This is no small matter. The Game 2 starter would also start a potential Game 5. Who do you trust most in that spot?
In the aggregate, Burnett and Pettitte look like similar pitchers. Their ERAs are right in line, as are their WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 numbers. Burnett strikes out more batters but also walks more, leaving the pitchers about even in K/BB. Both have had dominant stretches, A.J.’s from June through mid-July, and Andy’s in August. Using this base information it might seem like the decision could go either way. But as we’ve learned, things aren’t always as they seem in the aggregate.
Our favorite optimist notes one major difference between A.J. and Andy:
Take a look at these splits: Pettitte’s home ERA is exactly an entire run higher than his road ERA, an OPS against that’s over 100 points lower on the road and fourteen home runs surrendered at home against only five on the road.
Burnett’s splits are similar to Pettitte’s in terms of home-road difference, just reversed.
That would make it seem obvious, right? Start A.J. at home in Game 2 and then Pettitte on the road in Game 3. It’s called playing the percentages. It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames. The schedule would also point to this conclusion. If the Yankees choose the A series, as most of us expect, they’d be able to start Sabathia on normal rest in Game 1, then Burnett on normal rest in Game 2, with Pettitte starting on seven days’ rest on the 11th. If they went with Pettitte in Game 2 he’d be on five days’ rest, and Burnett would be on six days’ rest for Game 3.
Yet that doesn’t take into consideration other factors. For instance, commenter JGS on Rebecca’s post notes that Pettitte has pitched better at home since the All-Star Break:
Andy at home since the Break:
2-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.216 WHIPAndy on the road since the break:
4-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.068 WHIP
Maybe the home/road split is a bit overblown. Do the Yankees go with the season-long numbers, or the post-break numbers, when they’ve played like a completely different team?
There’s one last monkey wrench to consider: what if the Yankees choose series B? It seems like a long shot, but it’s possible. A friend mentioned that on Baseball Tonight, Peter Gammons said he heard the Yanks were going with the B series. This would make particular sense if playing the Tigers, because it would force Jim Leyland to either use his fourth starter in a potential Game 4, or use Justin Verlander on short rest. Neither is an ideal scenario.
Choosing the B series would make the Burnett-Pettitte decision moot. Joba Chamberlain would then pitch a potential Game 4, against either Nate Robertson, Jarrod Wasburn, or Justin Verlander, and then CC would come back for a potential Game 5. The problem there is that you can’t reverse the decision mid-round. If the Yanks find themselves in an elimination Game 4, they might not want Joba out there. That would necessitate trotting out Sabathia on short rest.
If the Yanks sweep, all this will be moot. Game 3 in both series is on October 11, and the Yanks would be able to realign their rotation for the ALCS. The longer it goes, the more important the Yanks’ decisions — both the choice of series and the starter alignment — become. If the Yanks win in four with Sabathia on the mound they’d probably have to slide him back to ALCS Game 2. If the Yanks win in 5, I doubt they’ll mind holding back CC until Game 3.
I hope the Yankees choose the short series. There’s a risk in starting Joba, but that’s somewhat mitigated by CC’s potential Game 5 start. The only way that scenario plays out poorly is if the Yankees face elimination in Game 4. They’d almost have to use CC on short rest, and then their Game 2 starter in Game 5. In that regard, I’d rather see Pettitte in Game 2. I like A.J. as much as the next guy, but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.
A reshuffled rotation to give CC rest
Posted by: | CommentsCC Sabathia is, in the old baseball sense of the word, a horse. With two starts remaining, he has thrown 220 innings for the Yanks after throwing 253 last year and 241 the year before. Tack on the postseason, and his innings total climbs by another 19 frames.
Somewhat unfairly and somewhat not, Sabathia carries around with him a reputation for postseason struggles. While he beat the Yanks in the ALDS in 2007, he wasn’t effective, giving up three earned runs on four hits and six walks in just five innings. Chien-Ming Wang was worse, and the Indians grabbed the Game 1 win. His ALCS starts against the Red Sox were worse. Last year, Sabathia’s numbers were ugly against the Phillies. He managed just 3.2 innings in his Game 2 start, surrendering five runs on six hits and four walks. Those results are not good.
Last year, though, Sabathia was pitching under some tough circumstances. Beginning with his start on September 16, Sabathia pitched with three days’ rest for five consecutive starts. During the four regular season starts, he went 2-2 but with a 1.88 ERA anda 26:4 K:BB ratio in 28.2 innings. In his last two starts for the Brewers — do or die games for Milwaukee’s playoff hopes — he gave up one earned run over 16 innings while fanning 18 and issuing just three free passes. Those games carried with them the pressures of the playoffs, and after 16 days of it, Sabathia was hosed.
Because the Yankees have wrapped up a playoff spot, because they have a six-game lead with nine games left to play, the Yankees won’t need to lean on the rubber arm of CC Sabathia. In fact, they can do something the Brewers could not do: They will rest CC.
After their nail-biter against the Angels yesterday afternoon, the Yankees announced the pitching match-ups for the series against the Red Sox, and the team did some shuffling. Joba Chamberlain will face Jon Lester in the Friday evening affair; CC Sabathia will square off against Daisuke Matsuzaka on Saturday afternoon; and Andy Pettitte will meet Paul Byrd in the Sunday afternoon match-up. While Joba will be going on their normal rest, CC and Andy will get a sixth day.
“It’s just giving CC a little extra rest and trying to give him a couple of extra days here. He’ll get an extra day the next time and then he’ll be on regular rest,” Joe Girardi said to reporters on Wednesday.
So while ten days ago, I set up the playoff rotation, let’s reset it.
| Date | Game | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 25 | vs. Bos | Chamberlain |
| Sept. 26 | vs. Bos | Sabathia |
| Sept. 27 | vs. Bos | Pettitte |
| Sept. 28 | vs. KC | Gaudin |
| Sept. 29 | vs. KC | Burnett |
| Sept. 30 | vs. KC | Chamberlain |
| Oct. 1 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 2 | vs. TB | Sabathia |
| Oct. 3 | vs. TB | Pettitte |
| Oct. 4 | vs. TB | Gaudin/Burnett |
| Oct. 5 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 6 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 7 | ALDS (A) 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 8 | ALDS (B) 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 9 | LDS 2 | Pettitte/Burnett |
| Oct. 10 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 11 | ALDS 3 | Burnett/Pettitte |
Except for the final game of the season, we can see how the rotation shakes down. Not only are the Yankees giving CC an extra day off this week, but due to next Thursday’s off-day, he’ll enjoy another extra day of rest next week. As an added bonus, if the Yankees pick the short playoff series, he’ll get yet another extra day off. If they pick the longer series — the one that requires just three starters — the Big Man will be lined up on normal rest to pitch Game 1 in the Bronx against Detroit or Minnesota.
The only real remaining question mark of the season concerns A.J. Burnett. With the power pitching throwing well of late, the Yanks will probably line him up for a Game 2 start. He is, however, schedule to make just one start this year and could be pitching in the playoffs after a 10- or 12-day layoff. That idea scares me.
To that end, the Yankees could opt for Burnett to make an abbreviated start on the final day of the season with any number of relievers ready to step in after three or four innings. While Gaudin is the projected starter for that day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Burnett draw the ball to give him on a regular schedule.
So that’s that. It is hard to believe the Yanks have just nine days left. It is comforting though to see the rotation shake down so nicely.
The Justin Verlander factor
Posted by: | CommentsBy the end of this weekend, the Yankees will have a far better sense of their potential ALDS opponent. For three games, the Tigers and Twins face off in Minnesota, and while these two opponents still have four games left in Detroit, if the Tigers grab this series, the Twins will face long postseason odds indeed.
If the Yanks draw the Tigers in the first round of the playoffs, it will mark the second time in four seasons that these two teams face of in the Division Series. In 2006, a post-season marred by Joe Torre’s decision to hit A-Rod eighth in the order, the Tigers downed the Yanks three games to one. That season marked Justin Verlander’s first full year in the Bigs, and in his one ALDS start, he was decent. He gave up three runs in 5.1 innings but allowed 11 baserunners. The Yankees couldn’t capitalize on his shaky outing.
Since then, Verlander has matured into one of the AL’s top pitchers, and this year is his big breakout season. He is 16-8 with a 3.34 ERA. He leads the AL with 239 and his 10.2 K/9 IP rate is tops among Junior Circuit pitchers. Opponents are hitting just .240/.295/.373 off of him.
Today, The Times’ Ben Shpigel profiles the hard-throwing right-hander. Verlander, writes Shpigel, throws hard. He throws hard in the first inning and can still hit 99 and 100 on the gun in the 7th and 8th. With his off-speed arsenal, Verlander has emerged as a true artist on the mound, and the Yankees are well aware of his presence. Writes Shpigel:
The Yankees, presuming they finish with the best record in the A.L., can opt for a division series schedule featuring an extra day off, allowing them to use only three fully rested starters. Sabathia would be in line to pitch in Games 1 and 4, but, then again, so would Verlander. In two starts against the Yankees this season — both opposite Sabathia — Verlander has held them to two runs in 14 innings. In his July 18 start at Yankee Stadium, Verlander did not allow any of the Yankees’ seven left-handed hitters to pull a fly ball until the sixth inning.
“He knows that our season revolves around how well he pitches,” reliever Bobby Seay said. “He’s taken that to heart every time out.”
While the Twins have Scott Baker fronting their rotation, Justin Verlander is why I’m rooting for Minnesota this weekend. The dominance of Verlander and the threat of him will make Detroit very tough to beat in a five-game set, and his performances this year against the Yanks have shown, the league’s top offense is pretty powerless against a pitcher of his caliber.
There is one way to counter the Verlander effect: In the past, I’ve advocated for shaking up the rotation. Save CC Sabathia for Game 2 when the match up more heavily favors the Yankees. He could still pitch a potential game 5, and if the Yanks manage to win a Verlander start without CC on the mound, all the better. If they lose, they will have wasted their ace.
But CC ain’t exactly chopped liver. After all, CC Sabathia, our ace, has out-pitched Verlander since the All Star Break. Verlander is 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA and 90 Ks in 12 starts spanning 87.2 innings while Sabathia is 9-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 83 Ks in 12 starts spanning 85 innings. If the final score is 3.29-2.75, the Yankees win.
The Yankees lost to the Tigers in 2006 when they had to put their season into the hands of Jaret Wright. This year, the Yanks’ rotation, while featuring some question marks, is better than the pitchers backing up Verlander. All the speed in the world on a Justin Verlander fastball can’t change that fact.
Setting up the playoff rotation
Posted by: | CommentsWith the Rangers’ loss to the Mariners last night, the Yanks’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot dropped to nine and their Magic Percentage hit 23.7. No longer are we worried that the Yanks won’t make the playoffs.
To that end, the Yankees can begin to set their postseason rotation. While their top three pitchers all have the ability to throw gems, the Yankees have to ensure that their pitchers are both ready for the postseason and well-rested for the postseason. We’ve seen A.J. Burnett struggle lately, and while Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia are rolling, keeping these two horses fresh and feeling good are of utmost importance right now.
If we take a look at the Yanks’ final 18 games and the way the pitching rotation shapes down, it appears as though the Yanks won’t have to juggle the starts. Take a look:
| Date | Game | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 11 | vs. Bal | Pettitte |
| Sept. 12 | vs. Bal | Burnett |
| Sept. 13 | vs. Bal | Sabathia |
| Sept. 14 | vs. LAA | Chamberlain |
| Sept. 15 | vs. Tor | Gaudin |
| Sept. 16 | vs. Tor | Pettitte |
| Sept. 17 | Off Day | |
| Sept. 18 | @Sea | Burnett |
| Sept. 19 | @Sea | Sabathia |
| Sept. 20 | @Sea | Chamberlain |
| Sept. 21 | @LAA | Gaudin |
| Sept. 22 | @LAA | Pettitte |
| Sept. 23 | @LAA | Burnett |
| Sept. 24 | Off Day | |
| Sept. 25 | vs. Bos | Sabathia |
| Sept. 26 | vs. Bos | Chamberlain |
| Sept. 27 | vs. Bos | Gaudin |
| Sept. 28 | vs. KC | Pettitte |
| Sept. 29 | vs. KC | Burnett |
| Sept. 30 | vs. KC | Sabathia |
| Oct. 1 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 2 | vs. TB | Chamberlain |
| Oct. 3 | vs. TB | Gaudin |
| Oct. 4 | vs. TB | Pettitte |
| Oct. 5 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 6 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 7 | ALDS (A) 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 8 | ALDS (B) 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 9 | LDS 2 | Pettitte/Burnett |
| Oct. 10 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 11 | ALDS 3 | Burnett/Pettitte |
What jumps out at me is the number of off-days the Yanks have until the playoffs begin. This is, in reality, one of their hidden advantages right now. While the Yankees have 18 games left until the ALDS, the Red Sox, Angels and Tigers all have 20 each to play. A well-rested pitching staff can be a big weapon in the postseason, and by taking advantage of the days off and a comfortable lead, the Yanks stand to have just that.
So if the Yankees keep their pitchers on the current rotation, the team doesn’t have to change a thing to line everyone up for the postseason. Should we be worried, though, about pitchers getting too much rest? While last year, CC Sabathia threw three straight starts, including his NLDS Game 1 start, on three days of rest, this year, CC could be starting game 1 on six or even seven day’s rest. If Pettitte gets the Game 2 ball, he’ll have a full four days and Burnett will have 11 days off. If Burnett gets the Game 2 ball, he’ll have eight days off and Pettitte six.
The Yankees will probably want to go with Pettitte in Game 2 if the game is at Yankee Stadium because lefties enjoy a bit of advantage at the new park as they did the old. With that in mind, the team could juggle the rotation later in the season. Sergio Mitre or even Alfredo Aceves could take a spot start to make sure Burnett and Sabathia aren’t throwing in the playoffs after an extended layoff.
I, though, would rather see the team gives these guys some rest. With three starts left, Sabathia won’t approach his 250 innings he threw last year, but he should reach 230 IP. Burnett will probably top 200 innings for the second year in a row, and it will be the first time in his career he has reached the double century mark in back-to-back season. Rest at the end of the year can only help them.
Of course, if these are the Yanks’ most pressing concerns, they’re in good shape for the stretch drive. They will live and die by their pitching in October, and keeping everyone feeling good now will pay off next month.
