Archive for C.C. Sabathia
Yanks turning to Sabathia for Game 1
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Had the Twins won last night to force a Game 4 in the ALDS, CC Sabathia would have been on the mound this evening in an effort to bring the Yanks to the League Championship Series. Instead, Andy Pettitte and the Yanks’ bats wrapped up the series in Minnesota, and the Yankees have a week off in which they can set their rotation.
Although the Yanks have not made an announcement yet, it is all but official that CC Sabathia will start Game 1 of the ALCS. The big lefty will take the ball against the Angels on Friday, nine days after facing the Twins in Game 1 of the division series. The long layoff may mean that Sabathia is too fresh, but that’s a risk I’m happy to take.
Last week, Sabathia had a pretty good ALDS start. His final line — 6.2 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K — earned him a postseason win, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. For the first three innings, Sabathia labored. He needed a Jobaian 64 pitches to record nine outs and did not have his best fastball. Rather, he and Jorge Posada came up with a game plan that relied on change-ups and sliders instead. It worked as he needed just 49 pitches to record the last 12 outs.
In a sense, Sabathia is the perfect pitcher to face the Angels. Most important for a series against the Angels is the fact that Sabathia simply doesn’t issue many walks. To win against the Angels, it is important to avoid giving them free bases. As the team demonstrated against the Red Sox this week, they will capitalize against pitchers who give them walks. Although the Twins did not score much against A.J. Burnett and the Yanks during a Game 2 that featured no 1-2-3 innings, the Angels will not let the Yanks off the hook that easily.
Furthermore, as a lefty, Sabathia can cut down on the Angels’ running game. Not as sneaky with the pick-off move as Andy Pettitte is, Sabathia can try to keep Bobby Abreu and Chone Figgins, Anaheim’s two biggest base-stealing threats, closer to first.
With the advantages, Sabathia is primed to face the Angels at least twice and maybe three times. If the Yankees opt to take advantage of the extra day off during the season to go with three starters, Sabathia could pitch Game 1 on Friday, Game 4 on three days’ rest and Game 7 on full rest. Who needs a fourth starter?
Yet, despite this profile, the Angels, a right-hand hitting team, have given Sabathia trouble this year. He allowed four earned runs in 6.2 innings on May 2nd and five earned runs in 6.2 innings on July 12. In fact, the Angels were one of only two teams to beat CC twice this season. Still, there is no one I would rather see on the mound come Friday. With the K pitch working, Sabathia can neutralize the Angels. As Joe wrote earlier today, the Yanks’ good pitching will determine the extent of their October success. In the ALCS, as CC goes, so go the Yankees.
Playoff rotation comes into view
Posted by: | CommentsAs the Yanks prepare for a three-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays to close out the season, the playoffs are looming large in the minds of the Bombers and their fans. With the pitching match-ups set for this weekend, we know a firm sense of the Yanks’ plans and can debate the merits of the Andy-and-A.J. decision.
Earlier this week, the Yankees announced that CC Sabathia would start on Friday night in search of his 20th win. Most of the Yanks’ A team will back him up. On Saturday, Andy Pettitte will take the ball in a final regular-season tune-up, and on Sunday, A.J. Burnett and the ALDS Game 1 lineup will earn themselves at least a few innings of time on the field. And so, as I’ve done once a week or so for the last few weeks, we extrapolate.
It’s safe to assume that the Yankees are going to take the longer ALDS series to avoid the Joba/Chad Gaudin decision that looms not as large as we might think (but more on that when and if the time comes). The pitching rotation, then, looks a little something like this:
| Date | Game | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 2 | vs. TB | Sabathia |
| Oct. 3 | vs. TB | Pettitte |
| Oct. 4 | vs. TB | Burnett |
| Oct. 5 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 6 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 7 | ALDS 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 8 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 9 | LDS 2 | Pettitte |
| Oct. 10 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 11 | ALDS 3 | Burnett |
| Oct. 12 | ALDS 4* | Sabathia |
| Oct. 13 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 14 | ALDS 5* | Pettitte |
We know that Chip Caray and Ron Darling will be manning the broadcast booth for the Yankees vs. Tigers/Twins. Now we have a pretty good idea who will be pitching.
On Wednesday, Joe tackled the Andy-and-A.J. debate and came to the conclusion I would have drawn. “I like A.J. as much as the next guy, he wrote, “but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.”
Personally, we’d all rather have CC Sabathia on the mound in the a do-or-die Game 5, but Game 4 could be just as important. Either the Yanks will try to close the door on the Tigers or Twins or the Bombers will have to win Game 4 to force Game 5. CC fights the bill for that match-up.
There is an interesting twist to the post-season pitching previews as well that I didn’t include in the chart. Right now, the Tigers hold a two-game lead over the Twins. In an ideal world, these two teams will tie so that they have to play a game on Tuesday. In an also-ideal world, the Twins will be a game behind the Tigers come Sunday. That day, you see, is Justin Verlander’s next start. If the Tigers face a must-win situation, they will start Verlander on Sunday, and he won’t be available to pitch on regular rest until Game 2. Although that would line him up to pitch Game 5, I’d take my chances with the rest of the Tigers’ rotation.
If the Tigers win a pair this weekend or if the Twins drop two to the Royals, the point will be moot. Verlander can rest until Game 1, and we’d have ourselves a good old fashioned pitcher’s battle to start the playoffs. I’m ready. Are you?
Yanks face a few postseason decisions
Posted by: | CommentsThere aren’t too many decisions left for the 2009 Yankees. Beyond some minor decisions on how to construct the postseason roster, there are only a few questions to ask. While some might be wondering if Molina will catch Burnett, I’ve got a bigger question in mind. Will the Yanks start Burnett in Game 2 or Game 3? This is no small matter. The Game 2 starter would also start a potential Game 5. Who do you trust most in that spot?
In the aggregate, Burnett and Pettitte look like similar pitchers. Their ERAs are right in line, as are their WHIP, H/9, and HR/9 numbers. Burnett strikes out more batters but also walks more, leaving the pitchers about even in K/BB. Both have had dominant stretches, A.J.’s from June through mid-July, and Andy’s in August. Using this base information it might seem like the decision could go either way. But as we’ve learned, things aren’t always as they seem in the aggregate.
Our favorite optimist notes one major difference between A.J. and Andy:
Take a look at these splits: Pettitte’s home ERA is exactly an entire run higher than his road ERA, an OPS against that’s over 100 points lower on the road and fourteen home runs surrendered at home against only five on the road.
Burnett’s splits are similar to Pettitte’s in terms of home-road difference, just reversed.
That would make it seem obvious, right? Start A.J. at home in Game 2 and then Pettitte on the road in Game 3. It’s called playing the percentages. It’s what smart managers do to win ballgames. The schedule would also point to this conclusion. If the Yankees choose the A series, as most of us expect, they’d be able to start Sabathia on normal rest in Game 1, then Burnett on normal rest in Game 2, with Pettitte starting on seven days’ rest on the 11th. If they went with Pettitte in Game 2 he’d be on five days’ rest, and Burnett would be on six days’ rest for Game 3.
Yet that doesn’t take into consideration other factors. For instance, commenter JGS on Rebecca’s post notes that Pettitte has pitched better at home since the All-Star Break:
Andy at home since the Break:
2-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.216 WHIPAndy on the road since the break:
4-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.068 WHIP
Maybe the home/road split is a bit overblown. Do the Yankees go with the season-long numbers, or the post-break numbers, when they’ve played like a completely different team?
There’s one last monkey wrench to consider: what if the Yankees choose series B? It seems like a long shot, but it’s possible. A friend mentioned that on Baseball Tonight, Peter Gammons said he heard the Yanks were going with the B series. This would make particular sense if playing the Tigers, because it would force Jim Leyland to either use his fourth starter in a potential Game 4, or use Justin Verlander on short rest. Neither is an ideal scenario.
Choosing the B series would make the Burnett-Pettitte decision moot. Joba Chamberlain would then pitch a potential Game 4, against either Nate Robertson, Jarrod Wasburn, or Justin Verlander, and then CC would come back for a potential Game 5. The problem there is that you can’t reverse the decision mid-round. If the Yanks find themselves in an elimination Game 4, they might not want Joba out there. That would necessitate trotting out Sabathia on short rest.
If the Yanks sweep, all this will be moot. Game 3 in both series is on October 11, and the Yanks would be able to realign their rotation for the ALCS. The longer it goes, the more important the Yanks’ decisions — both the choice of series and the starter alignment — become. If the Yanks win in four with Sabathia on the mound they’d probably have to slide him back to ALCS Game 2. If the Yanks win in 5, I doubt they’ll mind holding back CC until Game 3.
I hope the Yankees choose the short series. There’s a risk in starting Joba, but that’s somewhat mitigated by CC’s potential Game 5 start. The only way that scenario plays out poorly is if the Yankees face elimination in Game 4. They’d almost have to use CC on short rest, and then their Game 2 starter in Game 5. In that regard, I’d rather see Pettitte in Game 2. I like A.J. as much as the next guy, but with the season on the line, I’d rather have Pettitte on the mound.
A reshuffled rotation to give CC rest
Posted by: | CommentsCC Sabathia is, in the old baseball sense of the word, a horse. With two starts remaining, he has thrown 220 innings for the Yanks after throwing 253 last year and 241 the year before. Tack on the postseason, and his innings total climbs by another 19 frames.
Somewhat unfairly and somewhat not, Sabathia carries around with him a reputation for postseason struggles. While he beat the Yanks in the ALDS in 2007, he wasn’t effective, giving up three earned runs on four hits and six walks in just five innings. Chien-Ming Wang was worse, and the Indians grabbed the Game 1 win. His ALCS starts against the Red Sox were worse. Last year, Sabathia’s numbers were ugly against the Phillies. He managed just 3.2 innings in his Game 2 start, surrendering five runs on six hits and four walks. Those results are not good.
Last year, though, Sabathia was pitching under some tough circumstances. Beginning with his start on September 16, Sabathia pitched with three days’ rest for five consecutive starts. During the four regular season starts, he went 2-2 but with a 1.88 ERA anda 26:4 K:BB ratio in 28.2 innings. In his last two starts for the Brewers — do or die games for Milwaukee’s playoff hopes — he gave up one earned run over 16 innings while fanning 18 and issuing just three free passes. Those games carried with them the pressures of the playoffs, and after 16 days of it, Sabathia was hosed.
Because the Yankees have wrapped up a playoff spot, because they have a six-game lead with nine games left to play, the Yankees won’t need to lean on the rubber arm of CC Sabathia. In fact, they can do something the Brewers could not do: They will rest CC.
After their nail-biter against the Angels yesterday afternoon, the Yankees announced the pitching match-ups for the series against the Red Sox, and the team did some shuffling. Joba Chamberlain will face Jon Lester in the Friday evening affair; CC Sabathia will square off against Daisuke Matsuzaka on Saturday afternoon; and Andy Pettitte will meet Paul Byrd in the Sunday afternoon match-up. While Joba will be going on their normal rest, CC and Andy will get a sixth day.
“It’s just giving CC a little extra rest and trying to give him a couple of extra days here. He’ll get an extra day the next time and then he’ll be on regular rest,” Joe Girardi said to reporters on Wednesday.
So while ten days ago, I set up the playoff rotation, let’s reset it.
| Date | Game | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 25 | vs. Bos | Chamberlain |
| Sept. 26 | vs. Bos | Sabathia |
| Sept. 27 | vs. Bos | Pettitte |
| Sept. 28 | vs. KC | Gaudin |
| Sept. 29 | vs. KC | Burnett |
| Sept. 30 | vs. KC | Chamberlain |
| Oct. 1 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 2 | vs. TB | Sabathia |
| Oct. 3 | vs. TB | Pettitte |
| Oct. 4 | vs. TB | Gaudin/Burnett |
| Oct. 5 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 6 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 7 | ALDS (A) 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 8 | ALDS (B) 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 9 | LDS 2 | Pettitte/Burnett |
| Oct. 10 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 11 | ALDS 3 | Burnett/Pettitte |
Except for the final game of the season, we can see how the rotation shakes down. Not only are the Yankees giving CC an extra day off this week, but due to next Thursday’s off-day, he’ll enjoy another extra day of rest next week. As an added bonus, if the Yankees pick the short playoff series, he’ll get yet another extra day off. If they pick the longer series — the one that requires just three starters — the Big Man will be lined up on normal rest to pitch Game 1 in the Bronx against Detroit or Minnesota.
The only real remaining question mark of the season concerns A.J. Burnett. With the power pitching throwing well of late, the Yanks will probably line him up for a Game 2 start. He is, however, schedule to make just one start this year and could be pitching in the playoffs after a 10- or 12-day layoff. That idea scares me.
To that end, the Yankees could opt for Burnett to make an abbreviated start on the final day of the season with any number of relievers ready to step in after three or four innings. While Gaudin is the projected starter for that day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Burnett draw the ball to give him on a regular schedule.
So that’s that. It is hard to believe the Yanks have just nine days left. It is comforting though to see the rotation shake down so nicely.
The Justin Verlander factor
Posted by: | CommentsBy the end of this weekend, the Yankees will have a far better sense of their potential ALDS opponent. For three games, the Tigers and Twins face off in Minnesota, and while these two opponents still have four games left in Detroit, if the Tigers grab this series, the Twins will face long postseason odds indeed.
If the Yanks draw the Tigers in the first round of the playoffs, it will mark the second time in four seasons that these two teams face of in the Division Series. In 2006, a post-season marred by Joe Torre’s decision to hit A-Rod eighth in the order, the Tigers downed the Yanks three games to one. That season marked Justin Verlander’s first full year in the Bigs, and in his one ALDS start, he was decent. He gave up three runs in 5.1 innings but allowed 11 baserunners. The Yankees couldn’t capitalize on his shaky outing.
Since then, Verlander has matured into one of the AL’s top pitchers, and this year is his big breakout season. He is 16-8 with a 3.34 ERA. He leads the AL with 239 and his 10.2 K/9 IP rate is tops among Junior Circuit pitchers. Opponents are hitting just .240/.295/.373 off of him.
Today, The Times’ Ben Shpigel profiles the hard-throwing right-hander. Verlander, writes Shpigel, throws hard. He throws hard in the first inning and can still hit 99 and 100 on the gun in the 7th and 8th. With his off-speed arsenal, Verlander has emerged as a true artist on the mound, and the Yankees are well aware of his presence. Writes Shpigel:
The Yankees, presuming they finish with the best record in the A.L., can opt for a division series schedule featuring an extra day off, allowing them to use only three fully rested starters. Sabathia would be in line to pitch in Games 1 and 4, but, then again, so would Verlander. In two starts against the Yankees this season — both opposite Sabathia — Verlander has held them to two runs in 14 innings. In his July 18 start at Yankee Stadium, Verlander did not allow any of the Yankees’ seven left-handed hitters to pull a fly ball until the sixth inning.
“He knows that our season revolves around how well he pitches,” reliever Bobby Seay said. “He’s taken that to heart every time out.”
While the Twins have Scott Baker fronting their rotation, Justin Verlander is why I’m rooting for Minnesota this weekend. The dominance of Verlander and the threat of him will make Detroit very tough to beat in a five-game set, and his performances this year against the Yanks have shown, the league’s top offense is pretty powerless against a pitcher of his caliber.
There is one way to counter the Verlander effect: In the past, I’ve advocated for shaking up the rotation. Save CC Sabathia for Game 2 when the match up more heavily favors the Yankees. He could still pitch a potential game 5, and if the Yanks manage to win a Verlander start without CC on the mound, all the better. If they lose, they will have wasted their ace.
But CC ain’t exactly chopped liver. After all, CC Sabathia, our ace, has out-pitched Verlander since the All Star Break. Verlander is 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA and 90 Ks in 12 starts spanning 87.2 innings while Sabathia is 9-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 83 Ks in 12 starts spanning 85 innings. If the final score is 3.29-2.75, the Yankees win.
The Yankees lost to the Tigers in 2006 when they had to put their season into the hands of Jaret Wright. This year, the Yanks’ rotation, while featuring some question marks, is better than the pitchers backing up Verlander. All the speed in the world on a Justin Verlander fastball can’t change that fact.
Setting up the playoff rotation
Posted by: | CommentsWith the Rangers’ loss to the Mariners last night, the Yanks’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot dropped to nine and their Magic Percentage hit 23.7. No longer are we worried that the Yanks won’t make the playoffs.
To that end, the Yankees can begin to set their postseason rotation. While their top three pitchers all have the ability to throw gems, the Yankees have to ensure that their pitchers are both ready for the postseason and well-rested for the postseason. We’ve seen A.J. Burnett struggle lately, and while Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia are rolling, keeping these two horses fresh and feeling good are of utmost importance right now.
If we take a look at the Yanks’ final 18 games and the way the pitching rotation shapes down, it appears as though the Yanks won’t have to juggle the starts. Take a look:
| Date | Game | Pitcher |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 11 | vs. Bal | Pettitte |
| Sept. 12 | vs. Bal | Burnett |
| Sept. 13 | vs. Bal | Sabathia |
| Sept. 14 | vs. LAA | Chamberlain |
| Sept. 15 | vs. Tor | Gaudin |
| Sept. 16 | vs. Tor | Pettitte |
| Sept. 17 | Off Day | |
| Sept. 18 | @Sea | Burnett |
| Sept. 19 | @Sea | Sabathia |
| Sept. 20 | @Sea | Chamberlain |
| Sept. 21 | @LAA | Gaudin |
| Sept. 22 | @LAA | Pettitte |
| Sept. 23 | @LAA | Burnett |
| Sept. 24 | Off Day | |
| Sept. 25 | vs. Bos | Sabathia |
| Sept. 26 | vs. Bos | Chamberlain |
| Sept. 27 | vs. Bos | Gaudin |
| Sept. 28 | vs. KC | Pettitte |
| Sept. 29 | vs. KC | Burnett |
| Sept. 30 | vs. KC | Sabathia |
| Oct. 1 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 2 | vs. TB | Chamberlain |
| Oct. 3 | vs. TB | Gaudin |
| Oct. 4 | vs. TB | Pettitte |
| Oct. 5 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 6 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 7 | ALDS (A) 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 8 | ALDS (B) 1 | Sabathia |
| Oct. 9 | LDS 2 | Pettitte/Burnett |
| Oct. 10 | Off Day | |
| Oct. 11 | ALDS 3 | Burnett/Pettitte |
What jumps out at me is the number of off-days the Yanks have until the playoffs begin. This is, in reality, one of their hidden advantages right now. While the Yankees have 18 games left until the ALDS, the Red Sox, Angels and Tigers all have 20 each to play. A well-rested pitching staff can be a big weapon in the postseason, and by taking advantage of the days off and a comfortable lead, the Yanks stand to have just that.
So if the Yankees keep their pitchers on the current rotation, the team doesn’t have to change a thing to line everyone up for the postseason. Should we be worried, though, about pitchers getting too much rest? While last year, CC Sabathia threw three straight starts, including his NLDS Game 1 start, on three days of rest, this year, CC could be starting game 1 on six or even seven day’s rest. If Pettitte gets the Game 2 ball, he’ll have a full four days and Burnett will have 11 days off. If Burnett gets the Game 2 ball, he’ll have eight days off and Pettitte six.
The Yankees will probably want to go with Pettitte in Game 2 if the game is at Yankee Stadium because lefties enjoy a bit of advantage at the new park as they did the old. With that in mind, the team could juggle the rotation later in the season. Sergio Mitre or even Alfredo Aceves could take a spot start to make sure Burnett and Sabathia aren’t throwing in the playoffs after an extended layoff.
I, though, would rather see the team gives these guys some rest. With three starts left, Sabathia won’t approach his 250 innings he threw last year, but he should reach 230 IP. Burnett will probably top 200 innings for the second year in a row, and it will be the first time in his career he has reached the double century mark in back-to-back season. Rest at the end of the year can only help them.
Of course, if these are the Yanks’ most pressing concerns, they’re in good shape for the stretch drive. They will live and die by their pitching in October, and keeping everyone feeling good now will pay off next month.
