Archive for C.C. Sabathia
Once again, CC was great. He powered through seven innings, allowing just three hits. His only real mistake was a low fastball that caught a bit of the plate, and even then few hitters other than Evan Longoria would have deposited it in the right field seats. Another hit was a grounder that found a hole, and the final was the result of Dioner Navarro sticking out his bat head and dumping one into shallow right.
He did walk four, including Jason Bartlett twice, but none of those came back to bite him. It did hurt his K/BB ratio, though his 10 strikeouts offset some of that. Carl Crawford, Gabe Kapler, and Fernando Perez were his most frequent victims, going down twice each. Wily Aybar, Evan Longoria, and Dioner Navarro managed to avoid the 10 K machine.
Matt Garza pitched as well if not better than CC, turning this one into a bona fide pitcher’s duel. He also went seven innings, allowing five hits and one walkd but no earned runs, thanks to the first-inning error. Strangely, even though he walked just one his strikes to balls ratio wasn’t very good at all — 67 strikes to 53 balls. In any case, he got the job done.
The Yanks got two breaks which led to their first run. First, Jason Bartlett booted a Mark Teixeira grounder, which put him on first base with two outs. The other fortuity was Alex Rodriguez working the count full off Matt Garza. That allowed Teixeira to get a running start, which allowed him to score on A-Rod’s absolute rope over Crawford’s head.
Once Garza was out of the game, the Yankees struck. Nick Swisher led off the eighth by drawing a walk, and Mark Teixeira followed that with a single to right. Rob Thompson noticed Gabe Kapler bobble the ball in right, and waved Swisher on to third. That caused a poor throw, allowing Tex to mosey into second. The aggressiveness paid off, and the Yanks were set up.
Smartly, the Rays walked Alex Rodriguez, who was 3 for 3 to that point, to load the bases. They’d rather take their chances with Robinson Cano and his anemic results with runners in scoring position. Still, Cano is not hitting .000 in those situations, so he comes through some times. This was one of them. He skied a ball to center, allowing the pinch-running Jerry Hairston to score and give the Yankees the lead.
Joe Maddon used three pitchers to record the three outs in the eighth, but they allowed three runs along the way. They all go to Cormier in the box score, but Chad Bradford did give up a hit to allow an additional runner to score. It was a team effort, and it was the difference in the game.
The Yanks bullpen, on the other hand, slammed the door. Phil Hughes got off to a shaky start by walking Carl Crawford, but got a break when he decided to make a run for it on the first pitch. The Yanks pitched out, and thanks to an accurate throw and quick tag they put Crawford back into the dugout. Hughes finished off the inning, and Mo made his return with two strikeouts in the ninth.
That takes care of Game 1 for the day. With Mo and Hughes unavailable for the nightcap, the Yanks would do well to knock around Andy Sonnanstine. A.J. Burnett will try to get back on track and bring the Yanks magic number down to 16. We’ll be back in a couple of hours.
Tuesday night I mentioned that the Yankes were hitting .293/.380/.512 from the seventh through ninth innings entering the game. They picked up some hits in that period and upped their numbers to .295/.381/.516. We’ll see them even higher when Baseball Reference updates tomorrow morning. The Yanks went 9 for 17 with three walks and a double in the final three frames, icing the series sweep as they crushed the Orioles, 10-2.
The game was made possible by CC Sabathia, who picked up his 16th win of the season by pitching seven innings of one-run ball. Things started out shaky, as he allowed five hits in the first two innings. This included a bunt base hit and a check-swing bloop in the first, which Nick Markakis took advantage of by slapping a sac fly to left. The Orioles would gather three hits and load the bases with one out in the second, but CC struck out the final two hitters of the inning to escape unscathed.
Only a walk and a single marred his record the rest of the way, and the latter was erased by a 4-3 double play. Nine strikeouts helped keep runners off base. There were questions about CC’s strikeout rate earlier in the season, but no longer. Since the All-Star break he’s struck out 72 in 71 innings. His 6:1 K/BB ratio in the second half currently stands above his insane 5.12 ratio from last year in Milwaukee. This is even more impressive, because he doesn’t have the pitcher to face this year.
Despite CC’s best efforts, the Yanks still found themselves tied at one heading into the seventh inning. That simply would not do. Johnny Damon opened the frame by drawing a walk on a 3-2 count. He’d try to swipe a bag, but Nick Swisher had designs on a pitch breaking down and away from him. It didn’t appear to be a hit and run situation, especially with Swisher up, but it acted as one. Swisher blooped the pitch, and it landed in the exact right place. That set the Yanks up with second and third with none out.
Up came A-Rod, and he delivered exactly what the Yankees needed, a line single to center. That allowed by Damon and Swisher to score, and the Yanks to take a 3-1 lead. Earlier this season, something like this would have called for a sarcastic remark about A-Rod’s lack of clutch ability, but it’s not even necessary at this point. His early struggles affected his overall batting average, but from mid-June on A-Rod has been a force in every way.
Just how insane has A-Rod been since Brian Cashman visited the team in Atlanta? He was hitting .310/.426/.545 since then, and added to that with a 3 for 5 performance last night. There are plenty of reasons the Yankees are the best team in baseball. A-Rod is but one of them, but he’s certainly one of the bigger contributors.
The only downside to the game was Brian Bruney. Girardi gave him the ball to hold a 3-1 lead in the eighth, but he quickly gave back a run. He fell behind Cesar Izturis before retiring him, but he wouldn’t make it back from Nolan Reimold. The rookie home run leader took Bruney deep, pulling the O’s to within a run and forcing the hard throwing righty from the game. Phil Coke and Phil Hughes would split the final two outs, maintaining the lead.
That would all become moot with the Yanks insane ninth, when they walked and singled their way to seven runs, icing the game and the sweep. Derek Jeter, a walk and a single, and Johnny Damon, two singles, reached base twice in the inning. Phil Hughes got some quality work in, striking out the side in the ninth.
The bad news: It appears Mo is suffering from a sore groin and could miss a few days. The good news: the Yankees not only have a capable temp in Phil Hughes, but also have a 7.5 game lead in the East thanks to a Red Sox loss. That puts their magic number, as you can see to your right, at Donnie Baseball with 29 games left to play (30 for the Sox).
After a flight to Toronto, the Yanks will trot out Chad Gaudin tomorrow night in place of Sergio Mitre. Ricky Romero will go for the Jays. Like most games this season, I’ll be eagerly awaiting this one.
The Boston Red Sox are a good baseball team. They have a potent offense which, despite a slump after the All-Star Break, ranks up there among the best in the league. They have two of the top starters in the league. Their bullpen, though not as good as it was in April, is still solid. Yet despite how good they are, they’ve run into a team playing even better.
The Yankees flexed their bats once again last night, hammering Sox ace Josh Beckett for eight runs, including five home runs, in eight innings. Derek Jeter started the assault, belting the first pitch of the game into the Red Sox bullpen. Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez each added a blast, and Hideki Matsui had two for the second time in the series. Those five hits accounted for seven of the eight Yankee runs.
The Josh Beckett on the rubber last night was not the Josh Beckett who has pitched most of this season. His funk started last time out in Toronto, when he allowed seven runs in 5.1 innings. He labored a bit in that one, throwing 99 pitches. Last night it seemed a bit different. He ran into more issues with the long ball, but was still able to keep his pitch count at a decent level, and also kept throwing strikes. Though he gave up nine base hits, Beckett walked no one.
CC Sabathia steered clear of the free pass as well. Like Beckett, CC wasn’t at the height of his game, but he was much closer. Trouble brewed in the second, after the Yanks had staked CC to a two-run lead. Again it happened with two outs, after CC struck out the first two batters in the inning. Lowell, Baldelli, and Varitek went double-single-double, tying the score and prompting a collective groan from the Yankees faithful.
That’s as bad as things would get. After a double play helped avert trouble in the third, Robinson Cano made his second error of the night, this one costing the Yanks a run. They had built a 5-2 lead by that point, so the run didn’t hurt as much, but there’s simply no reason to hand the Red Sox additional opportunities. As said in the opening paragraph, they are a good team. They will hurt you if you let them.
Four runs over 6.2 innings might not look great in the box score, but it was still a quality effort by CC. He didn’t walk anyone, and kept his strike to ball ratio in good standing. The Sox did knock out eight base hits against him, but just three of them were doubles. There were no homers. Sabathia also beared down with runners on, as he held the Red Sox to just 2 for 9 with runners in scoring position.
(Oddly, the Yankees just put three men in scoring position all night, one of whom, Derek Jeter, scored on a Mark Teixeira single. Hey, when you hit five dingers, who needs runners in scoring position?)
The win caps a 7-3 road trip and gives the Yanks a 7.5 game lead in the East. That’s the same lead they had after the previous series. Again, Boston’s a good team that’s run into a team that’s playing just as well if not better. They’ve shaken the 0-8 stigma for good, and even put a dent in the “they can’t win at Fenway” argument with two wins this weekend.
You can say that the Yanks have sealed the division, and on October 4 you might prove to have been right. But there are still a number of good teams in the AL that the Yanks will have to face along the way, and they won’t tread lightly. They’ll have another test right away, as the Rangers, a game behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card, come to town starting Tuesday. Unfortunately, it looks like the Yanks will have to do the Sox a favor.
CC Sabathia has started 26 games so far this season, and has recorded a decision in 21 of them. His current four-game win streak has tied him with Josh Beckett, his opponent tonight, for the AL lead in wins. That seems impressive, especially given Sabathia’s slow start to the season. Yet he could be doing much better if not for those five no-decisions.
The first came early in the season, in that infamous home opening series against the Indians. Sabathia and Cliff Lee dueled, and the former clearly didn’t have his best stuff or command. He tossed 122 pitches through 5.2 innings, which seems like quite a lot, even for a workhorse like Sabathia. After Edwar Ramirez allowed a hit in relief, Phil Coke shut the door on the sixth, leaving Sabathia’s one-run effort in tact. The game was tied at one then, but Cleveland exploded in the top of the seventh, hammering Jose Veras for three runs without him recording an out. Damaso Marte was equally embarrassing, and that led to an Indians victory. Sabathia pitched well, but not deep enough and it cost the Yanks.
The next was the only Sabathia no-decision this year which the team won, the 14-inning affair against Oakland. The Yanks had a 6-5 lead when Sabathia went out for the seventh, but a walk and a single to lead off the inning allowed the A’s to manufacture two runs and tie the game. Strange that the CC no-decision in which the Yankees won is the one where Sabathia is eminently culpable.
Perhaps the most frustrating no-decision came against the Phillies. Sabathia gave up an early lead, but settled down and completed eight innings of three-run ball. The Yanks were down when he left, but by no means did he pitch poorly. In fact, this start was better than many of the starts in which Sabathia recorded a victory. Alas, win-loss record has plenty to do with the offense, and this time around the Yanks couldn’t muster more than two off Cole Hamels. They tied it off Brad Lidge in the ninth for the second consecutive day, but Brett Tomko would blow the game in extras. No-decision for Sabathia, though he pitched much better than that.
Next up is a tough outing at the Stadium against Tampa Bay. Five runs through eight innings isn’t all that great. Yes, you’re giving your team length, but the five runs just hurt. It came mostly in a three-run sixth, which put the Rays out ahead by two. After Sabathia finished the eighth, the Yanks rallied for two in the bottom half, handing the ball to Mariano Rivera in hopes they could walk off with another win in the ninth. Mo was sick that day, though, and gave up four runs in the ninth, sealing the game for the Rays. Not the best start, and Sabathia probably did deserve to lose it. Mo was obviously the bigger story that day.
The final one I’m not sure even counts. It was Sabathia’s 1.1 inning appearance against the Marlins, which he left with biceps tendinitis. He did allow a run in that span, and Aceves did come on to get the Yanks through the fourth inning, but again it was Tomko who blew the lead. Phil Coke didn’t help, and that was it for the Yanks, despite an effort off Marlins closer Matt Lindstrom. Again, it’s hard to hold CC completely responsible. He did, after all, only pitch about as much as a typical reliever.
That’s five no-decisions, two in which he pitched well, two in which he pitched poorly, and one throw-away. So while the Yanks are just 15-11 in games Sabathia has started, it clearly wasn’t always his fault. Sometimes the luck breaks that way. All considered, CC has pitched very well for the Yankees, especially over his last four starts. Here’s hoping he emerges tonight as the league leader in wins.
Last night we saw from the Yankees what we’ve seen from them, for the most part, since the All-Star Break: solid pitching and a hit barrage. They slipped for a couple of days, but over a 162-game season, what team won’t? Seemingly unfazed by two straight losses, the Yanks came up with a big inning to complement CC Sabathia’s mostly dominant start and took the second game of the series, 7-2.
After said two straight losses, the first inning was not a welcome sight. After Vin Mazzaro beaned A-Rod and issued a five-pitch walk to Hideki Matsui, the Yanks had the bases loaded with two outs. Jorge Posada worked a 2-2 count, but struck out on a ball way out of the zone. It was another opportunity wasted, the second such by Posada in two nights — Monday night he went down looking with runners on first and second with two outs.
Still, the Yanks had to feel good with their ace on the hill. Things looked great through the first two batters: a strike out and a pop out. But when CC threw behind Kurt Suzuki — and considering CC’s command last night, it was pretty clearly in retaliation for the A-Rod beaning — the catcher responded like any hitters wants to, by homering. Same thing happened in the second, minus the purpose pitch. After striking out the first two batters of the inning, CC gave up a homer to Tommy Everidge. Of course, he then came back to strike out Ryan Sweeney to end the frame.
The A’s wouldn’t get anything off Sabathia the rest of the night. There was some trouble in the fourth when the A’s put runners on second and third with one out, but CC kept them off the board. Scott Hairston probably could have scored on Mark Ellis’s liner to Nick Swisher, but Swisher was charging, and a good throw would have nailed him. The actual throw was up the line, but unfortunately for Hairston human beings do not possess clairvoyant foresight.
After that point the A’s managed just one more baserunner off Sabathia. For some reason, he threw Ryan Sweeney a belt high fastball around the middle of the plate. The slider had been working so well against Sweeney, especially when combined with fastballs out of the zone. Still, if that’s the biggest complaint among his final four innings, well, then there’s nothing to complain about at all. CC turned in a mighty fine start, just what the Yanks needed to stop this mini skid.
One final line on Sabathia. He threw 94 pitches, 66 for strikes, but four balls were intentional. So, in terms of him actually squaring off with a batter, he threw 90 pitches, 66 strikes. That’s pretty insane.
On the offensive side, the Yanks chipped away. Down 1-0 in the second, Melky Cabrera doubled with two outs, and then scored when a Derek Jeter grounder scooted through Adam Kennedy’s legs. In the third A-Rod led off with a single, took second on a wild pitch, advanced to third on a grounder to third, and scored on Jorge’s ground rule double. Things were starting to look up after two games of general offensive futility.
Then, shades of Monday in the fourth. With the bases juiced and one out, Mark Teixeira stepped to the plate. Monday night it was Teixeira who walked on five pitches to load the bases with one out. Last night it was Damon. Monday night it was A-Rod who swung at the first pitch. Last night it was Teixeira. Same result: double play. It doesn’t get more frustrating for that.
Thankfully, their luck changed in the sixth when Vin Mazzaro left the game due to a high pitch count. It was old school Yankees. They don’t necessarily rack up the score against the starter, but they have good at bats and wear him down. Through five Mazzaro had thrown 103 pitches. The bullpen would have to pick him up, and it was apparent from the beginning that they would not.
It’s too bad that Robinson Cano swung at the first pitch he saw from Jay Marshall, because he ended up being quite wild. He threw 13 pitches, just six for strikes, and four of those strikes were balls in play. Damon knocked him out with a run-scoring double, leaving him with a line of 0.1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 1 HBP. Santiago Casilla didn’t help matters, walking Mark Teixeira on four pitches, and then the same to A-Rod, which scored a run.
The Yanks tacked on a couple more after that, all but sealing their victory. David Robertson made things a little interesting in the ninth, walking the first two batters on eight pitches. If only he’d done the same to Mark Ellis, we would have had a Harry Doyle moment. Instead he struck out the next two batters and got a fly out to end the game.
Rubber game tomorrow, Chad Gaudin against Brett Anderson. WIth Burnett and CC going eight innings on back to back nights, the pen is pretty well rested. They’ll have a day off on Thursday before a series in Boston, so I’d expect to see Hughes, Bruney, and Aceves get an inning tomorrow, regardless of score. Thankfully it’s the last 10:00 start for a few weeks.
Photo credit: Ben Margot/Associated Press
Last night was one of those games where everything goes right. The offense piled up 15 hits, seven of which went for extra bases. CC Sabathia tossed eight dominant innings, striking out a season-high 10 and allowing just five baserunners. It added up to a landslide Yankees victory to kick-off a seven-game West Coast trip. Even with A-Rod and Posada sitting this one out, the Yanks still managed to pummel the Mariners, 11-1.
The Yankees started hitting early, and didn’t let up all game. They scored in five of nine innings, and put up multiple runs in four of them. Their seven extra base hits included a long home run by Derek Jeter, two shots to right by Hideki Matsui, and two doubles down the right field line by Damon. It helped that M’s manager Don Wakamatsu left in starter Ian Snell for six-plus innings despite obvious ineffectiveness.
One side effect of the offensive explosion, as requested yesterday, is that it gives Mo another day off. He proclaimed himself fit to close today, but Girardi will certainly feel more comfortable handing him the ball tomorrow after two full days’ rest. Not that he’d be uneasy if it came down to that tonight. It’s just that concerns about Mo’s “cranky” shoulder will be a day further in the past tomorrow. As the Yankees try to put some more distance between themselves and the Sox, Mo’s presence will be crucial.
On the mound, it was all Carsten Charles. A few weeks go, Mike commented on an article questioning CC’s contribution. Not his net contribution, which is decidedly positive. But rather his contribution in relation to the expectations. At the time Sabathia was 10-6 with a 3.67 ERA, quality by any measure, but was it ace-quality? CC didn’t help his case with an erratic start against Tampa Bay, and then a hot and cold start against Chicago. But over his last two starts CC has tossed 15.2 innings, allowing just five hits and one run, striking out 19 to four walks. They’ve been the definition of dominant.
During the month of August over his career, Sabathia has startd 49 games and has a 31-9 record, pitching 339 innings and allowing just 119 runs (3.16 ERA). Last year it was his best month, as he allowed just six runs over 48.1 innings, striking out 51 and walking eight. That was an insane year, and a repeat shouldn’t be expected — especially because it came in the much weaker NL Central. STill, CC has done his job these last two times out, and in emphatic fashion. He’ll get another tune-up start in Oakland before he gets another shot at Boston in Fenway. CC’s gotta be geared up for that one.
The game was awesome in every way. We had the pleasure of seeing the Yankees rack up hit after hit, run after run. We witnessed one of CC’s most dominant starts of the season. And we got it all in under three hours, a treat for a weeknight West Coast game. With the win and Justin Verlander’s dominance of Boston earlier in the day, the Yankees are again 6.5 games ahead of the Red Sox.
As if things couldn’t get any better, Carig notes that A-Rod is 50-50 for tomorrow. Considering how hard he got hit on the elbow and how questionable things seemed before the game, that’s quite good news. However, with Mitre and Gaudin going Saturday and Sunday, perhaps it’s best to have A-Rod feeling 100 percent for those games. The team might need the offense a bit more.
For tomorrow night, it’s Andy Pettitte vs. Ryan Rowland-Smith. A Friday West Coast game isn’t bad at all.
For the first three games of this series, we’ve harped on the Yankees inability to hit with runners in scoring position. On Friday and Saturday they put plenty of runners on, but couldn’t bring them around. That changed on Sunday, as they had six hits in 17 at bats with ducks on the pond. The White Sox, who had done a great job in those situations, went 2 for 14. It was the difference as the Yankees avoided the sweep, beating Mark Buehrle and the Sox 8-5.
While the whole offense, including newcomer Jerry Hairston, hit well, Melky Cabrera was the game’s first star. The big story was his cycle, capped off by a triple in the ninth inning. It was the timing and nature of his hits that put the Yankees over the top. He started their scoring with a three-run homer in the second. Next was a double to lead off the fourth, leading to the Yanks first run of that inning. He then picked up a single with A-Rod standing on second base, extending the Yankees lead to 6-4. Finally was his triple with none on and one out in the ninth, leading to an insurance run to make up for the one the Sox scored in the eighth.
Overall Melky was 4 for 5, scoring three and driving in four. In two at bats with the bases empty he hit a double and triple, thereby putting himself into scoring position, both times with fewer than two outs. In three at bats with runners in scoring position he went 2 for 3, driving in his four runs. His one failure was a groundout to second with bases loaded and two outs. To harp on that one at bat, though, would be to diminish an excellent game by Melky. He truly was the difference between salvation and a sweep.
While we had some concerns about Melky playing full-time with Brett Gardner injured, the Melk man has really stepped up of late. Since Gardner’s thumb injury on July 25, Melky has gone 10 for 28 with three doubles, a triple, and two homers. His on base percentage has been .438. We’ve seen flashes from Melky this season, and it’s so easy to forget how young he is. We’ve been especially hard on Melky at RAB, and would like nothing more than to be proven wrong. Melky has had some hot stretches this season that make me think that he might be on the brink. His emergence could mean a lot to the Yankees not only this season but next, when the Yankees have fewer in-house options.
As for CC Sabathia, it wasn’t quite the start the Yankees had hoped for. He struggled through the first three innings, throwing 58 pitches and allowing four runs on seven hits, including back to back home runs by Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome — both to the opposite field. He settled down after that, throwing just 42 pitches in the next four innings plus one batter, allowing just two more baserunners through the seventh.
Joe Girardi sent out CC for the eighth with 99 pitches already under his belt, and No. 100 tuned into a Gordon Beckham double. Phil Hughes came in to strike out two and walk one, and Mariano Rivera came in from the bullpen to allow a run-scoring hit, saddling Sabathia with five runs on the afternoon, plus the final out of the inning. He closed the door in the ninth, finishing off a much-needed Yankees victory.
Here’s a little crazy stat. CC threw 100 pitches, 71 for strikes. Through three CC threw 57 pitches, 37 for strikes. Over the next four-plus innings, he threw 43 pitches, 34 for strikes. As PeteAbe chronicles, the big man had had enough. “That’s all they get,” he said to his catcher. CC certainly stepped up his game after the third. That’s what the Yanks need from him going forward, just in all of his innings. It’s going to be a long pennant race, and the Yanks would do well to have their ace at his strongest.
What impressed me most was how the Yankees exploited the hole between short and third. They put plenty of balls in play to the left side, and oftentimes it paid off. It looked like Kevin Long devised a game plan, and the Yanks stuck with it. Whatever it was it worked, as the Yankees knocked Buehrle out after 4.1 innings. He left having allowed seven runs on 12 hits and without striking out a single Yankee. Also impressive: the Yankees singled Buehrle to death. Of the 12 Yankee hits off him, 10 were singles. The only extra base hits were a double and a homer by, who else, Melky.
The win keeps the Yanks a half game out in front of the Red Sox, but later this week that difference won’t matter much. After a day off tomorrow they have two up in Toronto, followed by a big four-game set at the Stadium over the weekend. Let’s hope this weekend was just a three-game hiccup, just like out in LA.
Last night, Joe Girardi sent AJ Burnett back out to the mound for the seventh inning even though his pitch count was already over 100 pitches (104 to be exact), and it wasn’t the first time we’ve seen him extend his starting pitcher beyond a point we’re not used to seeing. We’re conditioned to accept that 100 pitches is the point where a pitcher loses effectiveness and is at greater risk for injury, and anytime we see one of the Yankees starters go beyond this point we all cringe a little.
As crazy as it sounds and as unexpected as it may be, Burnett has been an absolute horse for the Yanks this year. He’s failed to pitch into the sixth inning just twice in twenty starts this year, and has gone into the seventh twelve times, including six of his last seven starts. CC Sabathia has been even more of a workhorse, pitching into the sixth in 19 of his 21 starts and into the seventh a staggering 17 times. He’s failed to record at least 21 outs in a start just four times since the end of April.
As you would expect, both Sabathia and Burnett are up there in innings this year, checking in at 142.1 and 127.1 IP, respectively. While we’re conditioned to look at innings as a measure of workload, we should be paying attention to the number of pitches thrown. Both guys rank in the top ten in the league in pitches thrown, as CC checks in at 2,210 pitches (4th most) and AJ at 2,115 (10th). Sabathia has thrown at least 105 pitches in 15 starts this year, Burnett 11 times.
The crew at Baseball Prospectus developed a stat called Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP), which is intended to measure … well … pitcher abuse. You can read a ton more about PAP here, but it’s calculated by cubing each pitch a guy throws past 100 in a start, and just summing up the “points.” So if Sabathia throws 105 pitches in a start, his PAP is 125 (five pitches cubed, or 5 x 5 x 5). Justin Verlander is the far and away the most abused pitcher in the game this season, checking in at 85,763 PAP. CC ranks 8th with 45,585 PAP, while AJ’s 31,387 PAP is good for 17th. Here’s the full PAP leaderboard for your viewing pleasure.
Throwing lots and lots of pitches is generally understood to be a bad thing, which it is. You want your pitchers to throw as few pitches as possible to limit the wear and tear on their shoulders. However, some pitches are worse than others, specifically pitches in stressful situations. If Burnett throws 30 pitches in an inning because he’s allowed a couple of baserunners and the hitters have worked deep counts, it’s far more taxing on his arm than if he threw those same 30 pitches spread over two quick and uneventful innings.
On the season, Sabathia has averaged 15.5 pitches per inning and Burnett 16.6. American League starters are averaging 16.4 pitches per inning this year, so CC’s well short of that while AJ’s just a bit over. In 21 starts, Sabathia has averaged more than 16.4 P/IP just eight times. It’s not a coincidence that those are basically his eight worst and most stressful outings of the year, as he averaged 102.6 pitches thrown and just 5.5 innings in those starts.
As for Burnett, he also experienced eight games this year when he averaged more than 16.4 P/IP, but he’s made one fewer start than Sabathia, In those starts he averaged the same 5.5 innings thrown as CC, but he threw about three more pitches per game (105.38). Again, these were pretty much Burnett’s eight worst outings of the year, and they were his most stressful because he was stretched beyond his normal comfort zone in terms of pitches need to record three outs at a time.
So in both cases, Sabathia and Burnett were truly “abused” eight times each this season. It’s not a perfect analysis, but it shows how many times each pitcher was left in to throw a lot of pitches while not recording many outs, which is the kind of thing you want your starters to avoid. Thankfully, both guys have seen the number of pitches they’ve averaged per inning trend downward (slightly) this season, which you can see in this graph. Hopefully the Yanks don’t pay the price for price for all the work early in the season at an inopportune time later.
Update (1:38pm): Of course Tim Kurkjian posts this today.
Photo Credit: Flcikr user a200eric
Over the weekend Tom Boorstein of SNY penned a piece about CC Sabathia’s supposed dropoff, saying that he’s pitching more like a good number two than the ace the Yankees are paying him to be. It’s an interesting read and worth your time, far better than the usual drivel you’d expect to find on such a topic. Boorstein cites plenty of evidence that Sabathia’s performance has taken a step back, but also notes that the Yanks were never going to see the CC Sabathia from last year.
One of the main points of the article is that Sabathia’s walk rate has climbed while his strikeout rate has dropped this year. Over the last two seasons with Cleveland (not going to count his stats with the Brewers at all, different league all together) he struck out 8.22 batters and walked just 1.86 batters for every nine innings pitched. This year those totals have declined to 6.51 and 2.59, respectively, Sabathia’s worst totals in nearly five years. I’m sure some will point to the difference between the AL East and pretty much everyone else, but last year non-Cleveland AL Central clubs hit .270-.332-.424, and this year non-Yankee AL East teams are hitting .266-.338-.433, a difference of just 15 OPS points.
Other than the strikeout and walk rates, the only other significant statistical difference between Sabathia now and Sabathia as an Indian is the percentage of first pitch strikes he’s throwing. Last year he threw 64.3% first pitch strikes with Cleveland, but this year it’s just 58.2%, his lowest mark since 2004 (57.1%). Overall, CC’s putting almost exactly the same percentage of pitches in the strike zone and hitters are making almost exactly the same amount of contact off of him that they had over the first eight years of his career.
The most important thing is that Sabathia’s stuff is perfectly fine. His fastball velocity is still up there and is actually a tick higher than it has been the last few years. According to the Pitch F/X data he’s getting the same kind of movement on his pitches and throwing them in roughly the same proportions, so there should be no pitch selection issues. Hell, CC’s got a 3.61 FIP this year, and last year with the Indians it was 3.41. Steve, aka The Artist, notes that Sabathia has typically been better in the second half, something that should scare the rest of the American League.
Remember what we’re doing here. We’re trying to figure out why Sabathia has only been merely very, very good this year instead of amazingly great like he was in 2007 and 2008. He’s still one of the very best starters in the game and projects to be worth approximately 5.5 wins over the full season. Last year only eight pitchers in the game were that valuable, and it translates to about $24.7M in production. Would I like to see a few more strikeouts out of Sabathia? Sure, but that’s like picking on the Mona Lisa because of her smile.
Photo Credit: Flickr user zaner2
Entering the Great Hall at yesterday’s game, I had one thing on my mind. With CC Sabathia opposing Justin Verlander, I could only hope it was a classic pitcher’s duel. “I hope the only run in the game is a home run,” I said to my friend. “By A-Rod. In the first inning.” Things didn’t go exactly that way, but it was close enough. Both pitchers went seven strong, but the Yankees’ offense was able to muster more than the Tigers’, leading to a 2-1 victory.
Early on, a pitchers’ duel did not appear on the horizon. Justin Verlander had his A-game, which CC Sabathia struggled, throwing 51 pitches in the first two innings. He didn’t appear to be long for the game. A 10-pitch third certainly helped out, as did Joe Girardi’s willingness to let him start an inning with 100 pitches already thrown. In the end he finished seven without allowing a run. He handed the ball off to Aceves and Mo, who had enough cushion to finish off the game.
One thing about pitchers’ duels — perhaps my favorite part — is that there’s not much left to say afterwards. Both pitchers pitched well. Verlander made his pitches most of the day, and Sabathia made pitches when he needed them. They actually allowed the same number of baserunners, eight, but the difference was that Sabathia kept the ball in the park, and got grounders and short flies with runners in scoring position. Verlander faced fewer of those situations, which was to his advantage, and allowed just one hit with at least a runner on second. Unfortunately, that one hit cost them the game.
It was a strange hit, Melky’s in the seventh. Upon first appearance it seemed like a routine grounder to short. Once Everett fielded it, though, it was clear that the grass had slowed it down, and that Nick Swisher had caused some soft of diversion by tip-toeing over it. How much he had to do with that play I don’t exactly know. But the throw was low, and by the time it landed in Miguel Cabrera’s glove, Melky had already touched first base. The umpire called him safe, and the Yankees had a 2-0 lead.
(Two minor comments on the play: 1) the replays that I saw showed that he was safe, and 2) one has to wonder, if Mark Teixeira was at first, would he have made a better scoop? Cabrera’s one-knee act might help him keep balls in the dirt in front of him, but it doesn’t appear to be the optimal setup. In other words, playing first base leaves his defense less exposed, but he’s still pretty bad in the field.)
Some will surely say that A-Rod’s homer was a New Stadium Special, and it’s tough to argue with that. We know the walls are in and down a bit compared to the old home, and it’s questionable whether his homer would have left the park across the street. In the same way, though not exactly, Marcus Thames got lucky with his homer in the eighth, which left the park with about as much clearance as Alex’s.
More than anything, yesterday’s game put on display the effect of luck in baseball. Both teams got lucky with homers that squeaked out of the park. The Yankees got lucky on a slow grounder to short which Melky just happen to beat out for an RBI single. The Tigers were in that position a few times, too — runners in scoring position and two outs — but couldn’t catch that lucky break. LIke many other elements, it’s what separates baseball from the other sports.
Hopefully you’re reading this on Sunday morning after celebrating the fine summer evening. It’s Old Timer’s Day tomorrow, and the festivities begin quite early. Gates open at 10, ceremonies begin at 11:45, and the actual game — Joba Chamberlain vs. Edwin Jackson — starts at 2:05. Yanks go for the sweep, and Joba goes for redemption. Should be a nice afternoon cap to Old Timer’s Day.
By the way: I went down to the Mohegan Sun bar for the last inning of the game. The view from there is incredible. They also have Bass and Newcastle on tap, so it’s a nice break from the Bud and Miller Lights you see all around the concourses. I’d definitely recommend it to anyone who can score tickets, but whether it’s worth the price is up to personal preference.
Last night, Joe Girardi sent AJ Burnett back out to the mound for the seventh inning even though his pitch count was already over 100 pitches (104 to be exact), and it wasn’t the first time we’ve seen him extend his starting pitcher beyond a point we’re not used to seeing. We’re conditioned to accept that 100 pitches is the point where a pitcher loses effectiveness and is at greater risk for injury, and anytime we see one of the Yankees starters go beyond this point we all cringe a little.
Over the weekend Tom Boorstein of SNY penned a piece about CC Sabathia’s supposed dropoff, saying that he’s pitching more like a good number two than the ace the Yankees are paying him to be. It’s an interesting read and worth your time, far better than the usual drivel you’d expect to find on such a topic. Boorstein cites plenty of evidence that Sabathia’s performance has taken a step back, but also notes that the Yanks were never going to see the CC Sabathia from last year.
