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The Year Ahead In the Farm System [2018 Season Preview]

March 27, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

A year ago at this time we were all still kinda in awe of what Brian Cashman and the Yankees were able to accomplish in a relatively short period of time. Between trades and development, the Yankees built one of the top farm systems in the game, one with high-end prospects and depth. We were still waiting to see whether that rebuilt farm system translated to success on the field though.

Fast forward to this spring, and the Yankees are coming off an ALCS appearance thanks largely to those prospects. Players like Aaron Judge, Chad Green, and Jordan Montgomery graduated to the big leagues last year and became key contributors. Others like Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Blake Rutherford were used as trade chips to land impact big leaguers with multiple years of control.

The Yankees were able to turn that highly regarded farm system into an enviable big league core, and, best of all, the farm system still ranks among the best in baseball. Look where the various scouting publications ranked the system this spring:

Baseball America: 2nd (behind the Braves)
Baseball Prospectus: 4th (behind the Padres, Phillies, Braves)
Keith Law: 2nd (behind the Braves)
MLB.com: 2nd (behind the Braves)

That is the good stuff. According to Baseball America, the Dodgers have the second best farm system among 2017 postseason teams. They ranked their system eighth. The Yankees have a top prospect pipeline on par with hard-tankers like the Padres and Braves and White Sox, except the Yankees are not tanking. They contended last year and there is every reason to believe they’ll contend again this year. Let’s preview the year ahead in the minors.

Top Prospects Who Could Help In 2018

Before the Brandon Drury trade and Neil Walker signing, the Yankees brought three top prospect infielders to Spring Training and ostensibly gave them a chance to win the big league second and third base openings. IF Tyler Wade was able to win a big league job anyway. 3B Miguel Andujar and IF Gleyber Torres will begin the season back with Triple-A Scranton for the time being. They’ll be up soon enough. Here’s our season preview for Andujar, Torres, and Wade.

Aside from the kid infielders, the top prospect most likely to help the Yankees this summer is RHP Chance Adams, a divisive prospect who doesn’t necessarily receive the greatest reviews from scouts despite stellar minor league numbers. Adams had another strong minor league season last year, throwing 150.1 innings with 2.45 ERA (3.70 FIP) at Double-A and Triple-A. Spring Training didn’t go so well (4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 HR), but whatever, it happens.

Larry Rothschild recently told Brendan Kuty that Adams’ arm strength wasn’t quite where the Yankees hoped it would be this spring, and hopefully that’s just a “he threw by far the most innings of his career last year and is taking a little longer to get to full strength than expected” thing and not a “he’s out of shape” or “he’s hiding an injury” thing. “He has a pretty good track record, so we’re not too concerned,” said minor league pitching coordinator Danny Borrell to Kuty.

Either way, Adams will begin the season back with Triple-A Scranton, and it stands to reason he will be among the top call-up options when a starter is needed. Domingo German and Luis Cessa have big league time and are on the 40-man roster, but if Adams performs and gets his arm strength to where it needs to be, the Yankees will give him a shot. They’ll go with whoever they believe gives them the best chance to win, and if they think it’s Adams, he’ll get the call.

Top Prospects Who (Probably) Won’t Help In 2018

Never say never, but it seems likely to me LHP Justus Sheffield, the top pitching prospect in the system, will spend the year in the minors after being limited to 98 innings by an oblique injury last season. Sheffield showed the goods in Spring Training (mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider) and also showed the warts (lack of command) as well. Still, as a power southpaw with three pitches (he also has a pretty good changeup), Sheffield is rightfully considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. If he helps the Yankees at all in 2018, it’ll be late in the season.

OF Estevan Florial, who some rank as the second best prospect in the system behind Gleyber, almost certainly will not reach the big leagues this season. Florial turned 20 in November and he has played only 19 games at High-A. More High-A time and a midseason promotion to Double-A is in the cards this year. Maybe a late-season stint at Triple-A. Maybe. Florial hit .219/.324/.406 this spring and impressed everyone with his athleticism and raw tools. From Bryan Hoch:

“He’s one of those guys that I’m really excited to see these first couple of weeks, because he’s going to get some opportunities to play,” (Aaron) Boone said. “He’s going to log some at-bats. We just want to get him as comfortable as possible. When we see him do that, even though that [triple] was the first one, it’s not a surprise to us. The talent is real.”

As with Sheffield (command), Florial has a flaw in his game that keeps him from being a truly elite prospect. He has problems making contact. His 31.1% strikeout rate last season was 29th highest among the 743 minor leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances, and Florial has the most trouble with non-fastballs. Double-A caliber arms gave him fits in the Arizona Fall League. Florial didn’t play a ton of baseball growing up and the Yankees hope he’ll make more contact as he gains experience. We’ll keep track of that in the Prospect Watch this year.

In RHP Dillon Tate, the Yankees have a former high draft pick (fourth overall in 2015) who didn’t quite take to some mechanical issues the Rangers tried to implement, but has since rebuilt prospect stock after being told by the Yankees to go back to whatever worked in college. He was slowed by a shoulder issue last year but he did reach Double-A by the end of the season, so I guess that makes him a call-up candidate this year. I think there might be a few too many names ahead of him on the depth chart. The Yankees are having Tate work on a two-seam fastball at the moment, a pitch that could be a real difference-maker for him.

RHP Albert Abreu and RHP Freicer Perez are two ultra-talented Single-A kids who we’re not going to see this year. (Abreu has been slowed by an appendectomy and will probably start the season on the disabled list anyway.) Perez really broke out last year — he had a 2.12 ERA (3.19 FIP) with 25.3% strikeouts in his final 18 starts and 101.2 innings last summer — and is poised to be the next great Yankees pitching prospect. Abreu battled injury problems last year but has a golden arm. These two are a Big Deal now and they’ll be a Very Big Deal next spring.

Secondary Prospects Likely To Help In 2018

Top prospects get all the attention and understandably so, but turning secondary prospects into regulars is often what separates good teams from great teams. Look what Green and Montgomery did for the Yankees last year. They were nowhere near any top prospect lists, yet both played very important roles for a postseason team.

This season the Yankees have several depth pitching prospects who figure to see MLB time, most notably RHP Domingo German, the presumed sixth starter at the moment. RHP Gio Gallegos, RHP Ben Heller, and RHP Jonathan Holder are all going to get bullpen time at some point. You watch. OF/1B Billy McKinney figures to spend the season as an up-and-down bat. They’re all covered in our depth pitchers and depth position players previews.

IF Thairo Estrada was expected to be in the infield mix before the Drury and Walker trades, and while he always felt like a long shot for a big league job, he was removed from the competition before it even started. Estrada was shot in the hip during a botched robbery in January and he did not play at all this spring. The good news is he has resumed working out and other baseball activities, but Thairo won’t start the regular season on time. He’s on the 40-man roster and we could see him later in the season.

Also on the 40-man: RHP Domingo Acevedo. He spent most of last season at Double-A and that makes him a call-up candidate. That said, Acevedo was shut down late last year with a shoulder problem, and his rehab delayed the start of his offseason throwing problem. He spent Spring Training building arm strength and may not be ready to pitch come minor league Opening Day. Still, Acevedo is on the 40-man, he’s a big power arm, and spot duty in the big leagues could be in the cards this season.

Among non-40-man players, RHP Cody Carroll and RHP Brady Lail stand out as potential bullpen options at some point, a la Caleb Smith and Tyler Webb last year. Those “huh, didn’t think we’d see him this year” guys. Carroll is arguably the top bullpen prospect in the system and he can really bring it, with an upper-90s fastball and a good slider. Lail is moving to the bullpen full-time this year and he could sneak on to the MLB roster at some point. There’s always one or two surprise call-ups each year. I’d bet on Lail being one in 2018.

Breakout Candidates

The Yankees have a deep farm system, especially with lower level arms, and that means they have plenty of breakout candidates. The best of the bunch is RHP Luis Medina, an 18-year-old with a triple digit fastball and two knockout secondary pitches (curveball and changeup). Can he figure out command? Maybe! If he does, Medina will be a no-doubt top 100 prospect at this time next year. Maybe even top 50.

A case can be made RHP Jonathan Loaisiga broke out last season, but he did only throw 32 innings, so I’m including him here. Johnny Lasagna is finally healthy after years of injuries and he goes out to the mound with three quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and fearlessly pounds the zone. The Yankees like Loaisiga enough that they put him on the 40-man over the winter, and if he stays healthy and pitches a full season, he could rank among the top prospects in the system by the end of the year.

3B Dermis Garcia and OF Canaan Smith are two bat first prospects with power — in Garcia’s case, it’s mammoth power that grades as a true 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale — and plate discipline, so while they have a high bar to clear to be considered top prospects, they have the talent to reach that level, Dermis in particular. SS Hoy Jun Park has tremendous tools and, now that he has a few years of minor league experience under his belt, this could be the season he really starts to take off.

The deep sleepers are RHP Deivi Garcia, a short controlled challenged righty with a hellacious curveball, RHP Juan Then, a just turned 18-year-old righty with pitching know-how well beyond his years, and C Saul Torres, a standout defensive catcher with much more offensive potential than last year’s .174/.230/.309 (45 wRC+) rookie ball batting line would lead you to believe. Also, RHP Clarke Schmidt is due back from Tommy John surgery. He’s not a traditional breakout candidate, but a healthy return will see his prospect stock rise considerably.

Prospects I Am Irrationally Excited About

We all have our personal favorites. Among mine is IF Kyle Holder, a slick-fielding shortstop who might not hit long-term, though he did put up a .355/.400/.458 (154 wRC+) batting line in his final 51 games last season. His glove alone gives him a chance to play in the big leagues. I think there’s enough left-handed contact ability there for him to be a regular on a second division team down the road, and that makes him a likely trade chip for the Yankees.

RHP Trevor Stephen has vicious stuff and may be best suited for a bullpen role long-term. The Yankees are going to use him as a starter for the time being because of course they should. If they ever move him to the bullpen, Stephan could rocket to MLB. Same with RHP Nick Nelson, who didn’t start pitching full-time until turning pro as a fourth round pick in 2016. He has a mid-90s fastball and the type of swing-and-miss curveball that could carry a pitcher a long way.

Other like OF Isiah Gilliam, a switch-hitting outfielder with power, and IF Diego Castillo, a contact-oriented hitter with strong defensive chops, are among my personal favorites. I’m also very interested to see what RHP Matt Sauer does in his first full pro season. He’s probably going to start 2018 back in Extended Spring Training — same with Medina and Then — meaning he won’t pitch in actual games until the short season leagues begin in June, but that’s okay. Still count him among guys I’m looking forward to seeing this year.

Will The Yankees Trade Any Of These Guys?

Of course they will. When you have a deep farm system, you have a 40-man roster crunch, and that applies to the Yankees again this year. Last year Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects Ian Clarkin and Zack Littell were traded before having to be added to the 40-man roster. Other fringe 40-man roster guys like Garrett Cooper, Caleb Smith, Nick Rumbelow, and Ronald Herrera were traded for prospects years away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility.

Among the notable prospects who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season are Hoy Jun Park, Kyle Holder, Diego Castillo, and Dermis Garcia. I could see the Yankees dangling all of them as trade bait. Guys like Billy McKinney, Gio Gallegos, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, and the Domingos (Acevedo and German) may not be long for the 40-man roster. I could see them being moved in Cooper/Rumbelow/Herrera style trades before the end of the season.

The Yankees declared Torres, Andujar, Sheffield, and Florial off-limits in trade talks over the winter — or at least they did for Gerrit Cole — though I suppose the Walker and Drury pickups could’ve changed things. I imagine Andujar, for example, is more expendable than he was three or four months ago. In that case, the best trade chips in the farm system are Clint Frazier (technically no longer a prospect), Adams, Tate, Abreu, and possibly Andujar.

Where Does The System Go From Here?

The Yankees had a top tier farm system last spring and they have a top tier farm system right now, though the composition of the farm system is much different now than it was a year ago. Last spring the system was built around high-end position players close to the big leagues like Judge, Torres, and Frazier. Now the farm system is built around pitching, especially at the lower levels.

Pitchers are inherently more risky than position players, especially lower level pitchers. Pitchers get hurt, they don’t develop that third pitch, so on and so forth. Because of that, the farm system carries considerably more risk now than it did a year ago. And with the anticipated graduations of Torres, Andujar, and Wade, as well as others like Adams and German, plus any trades, the smart money is on the farm system taking a hit over the next 12 months.

And you know what? That is perfectly fine. When you have a great farm system, the goal is to turn it into a great Major League team, and the Yankees are in the middle of doing that. Baseball America ranked the Cubs’ system first in 2015 and 28th in 2018. Think Theo Epstein and Cubs fans care? Nope. Going from a great system to a bad system because of injuries and poor performance is one thing. Going from a great system to a bad system because all your top prospects became great big leaguers is another. That’s what every team is striving for, and the Yankees are in the process of doing exactly that.

The Yankees’ five most important Spring Training storylines

February 14, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Spring Training is officially underway. Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa yesterday, they threw the ball around a little bit, and they’ll do it all again today. And tomorrow. And the next however many days after that. Position players report Sunday, and next Friday actual Spring Training games begin. Can’t wait. Baseball is better than no baseball.

As is the case every year, the Yankees have some storylines worth keeping an eye on this spring. The biggest, obviously, is the infield situation. Second and third base are wide open — they are “fluid,” as new manager Aaron Boone said yesterday — and while we have an idea who will ultimately fill those positions, lots of weird stuff happens in Spring Training. This year will be no different. Here are what I consider the five most important storylines this spring, in no particular order.

How will the Yankees spend that $12M?

Technically, the Yankees have about $22M to spend under the $197M luxury tax threshold, but they’re setting aside $10M for midseason additions. That seems like a lot, but who knows. The Yankees might have to trade for a starting pitcher and two infielders come July. Brian Cashman & Co. would rather have too much set aside than not enough.

Anyway, setting aside $10M still leaves the Yankees with $12M to spend, and I have to think they’re going to spend it. Free agency is the smart bet — there are still sooo many good free agents unsigned — but I suppose they could always take on salary in a trade. Sign an infielder like Neil Walker? Or a depth starter like, say, Jaime Garcia? Or maybe someone better than a depth starter like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn?

I don’t think that $12M is going unspent. The Yankees have needs like every other team and there are still quality free agents on the market, so it’s not like they have nowhere to spend it. In previous years the free agent market would’ve been picked clean by now. Spending $12M would’ve been tough without overpaying someone. That isn’t the case now. That $12M is going somewhere.

How does Gleyber look after his injury?

Gleyber Torres has completed his rehab from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow, and during an MLB Network appearance yesterday, he said he took live batting practice for the first time Monday. That’s good. Torres seems to be on a typical “get ready for the season” schedule. Tommy John surgery is a major procedure, obviously, but there is less risk with position players, especially when they have it on their non-throwing arms.

I’m looking forward to seeing Gleyber in camp (who isn’t?) and I suspect we won’t even be able to tell he had the surgery. I still want to see him in action though, to see if there’s any rust, to see if he’s apprehensive at all when swinging, things like that. It’s a bit of a weird situation. Torres has a chance to win a big league roster spot and of course he wants to do well this spring. At the same time, you don’t want him overdoing it so soon after elbow surgery, and risking a setback.

Is Betances throwing strikes?

This will be Dellin Betances’ fourth Spring Training as a no-doubt member of the bullpen and the previous three have followed the same script. Betances comes out of the gate sitting closer to 94-95 mph than 98-99 mph, and he doesn’t throw strikes. Then, by the end of camp, the velocity is back and his mechanics are locked in, and he looks like dominant Dellin. No reason to think this year will be different, really.

This year is different, however. Betances was borderline unusable down the stretch last season because he couldn’t throw strikes. He has a history of control problems and late last year was his worst stretch as a big leaguer. Spring Training is Spring Training, these guys go through the motions and focus on getting their work in more than anything, but in Dellin’s case, it would behoove him to come out strong and show he is back to throwing strikes, and that Boone can trust him right away.

“(I) wanted to get to a weight I was comfortable at, where I was two, three years ago. I just feel like I’m trying to start strong and finish strong,” said Betances, who dropped 16 lbs. this offseason, to Erik Boland yesterday. “I felt like last year my delivery was just not there, I just wasn’t consistent with that. I worked on my breaking ball (this winter), throwing it more for strikes. Last year, obviously, I had problems with a lot of walks, so that was a focal point for me.”

Who emerges as the sixth starter?

If the Yankees sign or trade for another starter, the sixth starter might be Jordan Montgomery. For now Montgomery is in the starting five and sixth starter duties will likely fall on Luis Cessa, Domingo German, or Chance Adams. The sleeper: Chad Green. A lot of times the sixth starter decision gets made by the schedule — who is lined up to pitch that day? — but those are usually only spot starts. I’m talking about the full-time sixth starter.

In reality, the sixth starter race won’t be decided in Spring Training. Hopefully the Yankees won’t need one for a while, but, if they do, they figure to go with who is pitching the best at the time rather than who pitched the best in March. Cessa could put up a 0.75 ERA during Grapefruit League play, but if it’s mid-June and German is sitting on a 1.90 ERA with 25.0 K-BB% rate in Triple-A, he’s going to get the call. It is possible to jump to the front of the line in camp though, so if a sixth starter is needed early in the season, you can be the guy who gets called up.

How’s Boone handling things?

Spoiler alert: Boone’s first Spring Training as a manager will probably look like the ten Spring Trainings under Joe Girardi. Maybe they’ll do a few more team-bonding things? Otherwise it’ll be business as usual. Spring Training won’t be a good time to get a read on the new skipper. Certainly not in terms of on-field strategy and whatnot. Lineups don’t mean much and no one plays the bullpen matchup game during Grapefruit League play.

I guess the big thing to watch is how Boone handles the inevitable crisis — a player leaves a game with an injury, does Boone clam up like Girardi when asked about it? — and what sort of mood hangs over camp. Should be one of excitement! The Yankees are good, they have a lot of fun young players, and they added Giancarlo Stanton. Should be a blast. If it’s not, that’ll be weird, especially after Boone said his priority is building strong relationships with his players time and time again over the winter.

“I want to be somebody that is known as a smart manager, that makes solid decisions and is prepared,” said Boone yesterday. “But also one that when you walk into our clubhouse, hopefully I’m part of what I believe is a winning culture (and) a culture where guys are at ease, where guys are allowed to be themselves. When you walk into our room, it’s not a stressful place. It’s a place where guys are at work but there’s a joy coming there to do their job. Hopefully I’m part of creating that atmosphere.”

* * *

There is plenty of other stuff to keep an eye on this spring. How do Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton handle left field? Does Chasen Shreve get the final bullpen spot by default, or does someone else take it? Does Greg Bird make it out in one piece? All of that stuff will be settled in time and I don’t think we’re in for any surprises. Hopefully Bird stays healthy. Chances are Judge and Stanton will be fine in left. Shreve probably gets the last bullpen spot, and if he doesn’t, eh who cares.

To me, the most important things this spring are Gleyber’s elbow, Dellin’s control, and Boone’s on-the-job training. I’m interesting to see where that $12M is going, sure, but I’m more interested in Torres, Dellin, and Boone. Those are three pretty important members of the organization and they’re all facing different challenges this spring. The Yankees want all of them to begin 2018 off on the right foot.

Sorting out the projected 2018 Triple-A Scranton roster

February 8, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

These days, moreso than ever before, teams need more than 25 players to get through the 162-game season and contend for a postseason spot. Lots more than 25 players. Last season 1,351 different players appeared in at least one big league game, an average of 45 players per team. The Yankees used 51 players last year, tied for the eighth most in baseball. The Mariners led the way with 61. The Indians and Rockies somehow used only 41 each.

The remainder of the 40-man roster is essentially a taxi squad. Teams shuttle players in and out not only to help cover for injuries or poor performance, but to get matchups too. Facing a team with a lefty heavy lineup? Might as well bring up an extra lefty reliever for the weekend. Need another platoon bat because you’re going to see five right-handed starters the next five days? Call up a lefty with some pop. It happens every single day across the league.

The Yankees have built a very deep farm system and so many of their top prospects are close to the big leagues. My annual top 30 prospects list will be posted tomorrow and I’d say only three of my top ten prospects have no chance to play in the big leagues this season. The Yankees will again use that farm system to supplemental their MLB roster. Injuries happen. Poor performances happen. Sometimes you need to swap guys out, and the Yankees have lots of alternatives waiting.

Clubs use their Triple-A affiliate as an extension of their big league roster nowadays, and because of that, we should take a second to look at the projected Triple-A Scranton roster for the coming season. We’re going to see a lot of these players in Spring Training soon and in the Bronx later this year. Let’s break down the 2018 RailRiders, starting with the position players. Here are the roster candidates. An asterisk (*) denotes a player on the 40-man roster.

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Utility
Kyle Higashioka*	Miguel Andujar*	Jabari Blash*	Tyler Austin*
Francisco Diaz	Thairo Estrada*	Jake Cave*	Billy McKinney*
Erik Kratz	Gleyber Torres*	Clint Frazier*	Tyler Wade*
	Abi Avelino	Mark Payton	Jace Peterson
	Danny Espinosa	Shane Robinson
	Billy Fleming	Zack Zehner
	Ryan McBroom
	Nick Solak

Twenty-one players total and we need to whittle that list down to 12 or 13 names. Triple-A teams carry 25-man rosters these days — it wasn’t that long ago that Triple-A and Double-A teams had 24-man rosters — and it is not at all uncommon for minor league teams to employ a full-time eight-man bullpen. Especially early in the season when young pitchers are still getting stretched out. Don’t want to overload them. Let’s pare down our list of 21 names.

Catchers: This is the easiest position. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are entrenched at the big league level. Higashioka, who made his MLB debut when Sanchez got hurt last season, and Kratz, a veteran journeyman who returned to the Yankees on a minor league contract, are the obvious Triple-A catching tandem. I mentioned Diaz only because he is third on the Triple-A catching depth chart. If someone gets hurt or called up, Diaz figures to take that spot on the roster. Higashioka and Kratz are the projected Triple-A catchers. Easy peasy.

Infielders: Okay, now it’s getting complicated. We still don’t know who is going to play second or third base at the big league level. We have an idea based on the available personnel, but we don’t know for sure. Who had Jordan Montgomery winning a rotation spot in camp last season? Not many. An infielder could surprise and win a big league spot in Spring Training. Unlikely? Sure. Possible? Absolutely.

I have eight infielders in the table, though it’s really eleven because Wade and Peterson are natural infielders, and Austin is a first baseman. Wade, Peterson, and Austin can all play the outfield as well. Those eleven players have to cover at least eight roster spots. That is second base, third base, and utility infielder at the MLB level, plus all four starting infield spots and a utility infielder at the Triple-A level. It’s really seven roster spots though, not eight. Ronald Torreyes will be on the MLB roster in some capacity. He’s taking one of those three MLB spots. So we need to fill seven total spots.

My guess right now is, if the season started today, Andujar would start at third in the Bronx and Torres would start the season in Triple-A. He’s coming back from a major injury and he hasn’t played at all since last June. There’s also the whole service time thing. Sending him down for roughly three weeks buys another year of control. The Yankees typically do not obsess over service time, but man, how could you pass up that chance? It’s three weeks! And he’s coming back from a major injury!

I’m putting Andujar on the MLB roster and Torres on the Triple-A roster with the expectation Gleyber will be in the big leagues a few weeks into the season. My hunch is the Yankees signed Peterson and Espinosa as veteran safety nets. Not because they actually want to carry them on the roster. The Yankees are going young wherever possible and, unless all the kids fall flat in Spring Training, I think Peterson and Espinosa wind up going to Scranton. From what I understand both can opt-out of their contracts at the end of Spring Training if they’re not on the MLB roster, but I’d be surprised if that happens in this free agent climate.

Putting Espinosa and Peterson in Triple-A means Wade gets that final MLB infield spot almost by default. Does he start at second or sit on the bench while Torreyes starts? Who knows. Hopefully he starts. But Wade getting that job over Estrada (zero Triple-A games) and Avelino (more of an organizational utility guy at this point) makes sense. Our three big league infield spots are set. Second, third, and the utility spot go to Andujar, Wade, and Torreyes.

There are still two Triple-A roster spots to fill, however. One will go to Thairo. The last spot has to go to a first baseman and as things stand, Austin has a spot on the big league team’s bench. Either that or the Yankees are going to carry an eighth reliever, which is absolutely possible. I’m assuming Austin is on the bench though. In that case, I think McKinney gets the nod at first base over McBroom, who didn’t wow anyone in Double-A last season. The Triple-A outfield is crowded and McKinney at first, a position he began playing in the Arizona Fall League last year, clears up the logjam. Espinosa, Peterson, and Kratz all have some first base experience and are backup options.

Okay, so based on all that, we have filled the three big league infield spots (Andujar, Torreyes, Wade) and the five Triple-A infield spots (Espinosa, Estrada, McKinney, Peterson, Torres). Solak played only 30 games with Double-A Trenton last season and going back there to start this season should not surprise anyone. He’ll get another half-season with the Thunder, and if all goes well, expect Solak to get a midseason bump up to Triple-A. Not on Opening Day though.

Outfielders: The outfield is pretty straightforward. The big league roster is loaded with outfielders and that means Blash, Cave, and Frazier have little chance of winning an MLB job based on merit this spring. They’re tentatively scheduled to go to Triple-A and bide their time. McKinney and Peterson can also play the outfield, if necessary. Simple as it gets.

Utility: We have two catchers (Higashioka, Kratz), five infielders (Espinosa, Estrada, McKinney, Peterson, Torres), and three outfielders (Blash, Cave, Frazier). Ten Triple-A position players. We need two more because based on the last few years, the Yankees will go with an eight-man Triple-A bullpen out of the gate. Robinson signed a minor league deal last night and will be in Triple-A, so that’s one of the two remaining spots. I think Fleming gets the final spot because he’s a true organizational utility infielder type. That’s usually the type of player who gets the last bench spot in Triple-A.

Alright, so putting it all together, we’re sending Avelino, Diaz, McBroom, Payton, Solak, and Zehner back to Double-A Trenton to begin the season, leaving us this group of 12 Triple-A position players:

Catchers (2): Higashioka, Kratz
Infielders (4): Espinosa, Estrada, Fleming, Torres
Outfielders (4): Blash, Cave, Frazier, Robinson
Utility (2): McKinney, Peterson

The big league openings at second and third bases complicate things. It could easily be Torres and Espinosa in MLB with Wade and Andujar in Triple-A. I wouldn’t put it past Torres to blow everyone away in Spring Training and get the second base job despite his injury and service time manipulation. We’ll see. Here, for the fun of it, is a possible Triple-A lineup based on my projected roster:

SS Thairo Estrada
2B Gleyber Torres
RF Clint Frazier
1B Billy McKinney
LF Jabari Blash
CF Jake Cave
C Kyle Higashioka
3B Danny Espinosa
DH Jace Peterson

Bench: Kratz, Fleming, Robinson

Don’t get too hung up on positional assignments. Players will rotate around like they always do. Torres and Thairo figure to see time at second, third, and short. Frazier will play both corner outfield spots, as will Blash. Peterson will get time in the outfield. That’s Triple-A baseball. More importantly, that is a crazy stacked lineup by Triple-A standards. Stacked with good prospects and hitters who will pummel Triple-A pitching. Fun summer ahead for the RailRiders. Let’s get to the pitching staff now.

Starters	Righty Relievers	Lefty Relievers
Domingo Acevedo*	Gio Gallegos*	Caleb Frare
Luis Cessa*	Ben Heller*	Wade LeBlanc
Domingo German*	Jonathan Holder*	James Reeves
Chance Adams	Cody Carroll	Stephen Tarpley
David Hale	Will Carter
Brody Koerner	Cale Coshow
Brady Lail	J.P. Feyereisen
Justus Sheffield

Fortunately, the big league pitching staff is much clearer than the infield. The Yankees have five starters for five rotation spots (Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka) and six relievers for seven bullpen spots (Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson, Adam Warren). The out-of-options Chasen Shreve presumably has a leg up on the final bullpen spot as the designated low-leverage “only when losing” reliever.

I have 19 pitchers in the table and we have to cut that list down to 13 for the Triple-A roster. Won’t be too difficult, especially with the big league pitching staff settled already.

Rotation: Let’s start with who I don’t expect to be in the Opening Day Triple-A rotation: Acevedo and Sheffield. Acevedo made only 14 Double-A starts last season (plus two Triple-A spot starts) and Sheffield made only 17 Double-A starts. Had he not strained his oblique and missed close to two months, chances are Sheffield would be ticketed for Triple-A Scranton right now. But he got hurt, missed time, and has to make it up.

I expect both Acevedo and Sheffield to return to Double-A Trenton to begin the season before a midseason (or sooner) promotion to Triple-A Scranton. the Triple-A rotation falls into place then. Adams, Cessa, and German all spent time — a lot of time, at that — with the RailRiders last year and will return. Hale is a veteran journeyman with gobs of Triple-A experience. He was signed to be the Triple-A innings guy, so he’s in the rotation too. Lail, who will again be in Spring Training as a non-roster player, is the obvious candidate for the fifth rotation spot. Acevedo, Koerner, and Sheffield go back to Trenton for the time being.

Bullpen: There are eight bullpen spots and four will go to Heller, Holder, Gallegos, and LeBlanc. Feyereisen spent much more time in Triple-A than Double-A last year, so he’s in too. Coshow has spent parts of three seasons in Double-A now and he got his feet wet in Triple-A late last year, and he’ll be in camp as a non-roster player, so I think he’s a lock for the RailRiders bullpen. Carroll was last year’s big breakout relief prospect, and given the fact he spent most of last season in Double-A and is already 25, I think Triple-A is a good bet for him.

All that leaves Carter, Frare, Reeves, and Tarpley as candidates for the eighth and final Triple-A bullpen spot. None of them have Triple-A experience. Frare has been in the organization the longest (11th round pick in 2012) but Carter has the most Double-A experience (90 innings). I think it comes down to those two. Tarpley has 10.1 career Double-A innings under his belt, all coming last season. Reeves has 14.1 career Double-A innings, all but four of which came last season. A return to Double-A is in the cards for those two.

I don’t want to spend too much time on the eighth Triple-A bullpen spot, so I’m going to answer the “Frare or Carter” question quickly. Frare is younger (by six months) and he’s left-handed, but Carter has performed better in Double-A, not that either has been a world-beater. Let’s go with Frare for the final Triple-A bullpen spot. Why not? This spot will be a revolving door anyway. Here’s our projected Triple-A pitching staff:

Rotation (5): Adams, Cessa, German, Hale, Lail
Relievers (8): Carroll, Coshow, Feyereisen, Frare, Gallegos, Heller, Holder, LeBlanc

I wouldn’t sweat the Opening Day starter or bullpen roles. On Opening Day, minor league teams tend to start whoever is lined up to pitch that day coming out of camp, and almost zero minor league teams have designated bullpen roles. Seventeen different pitchers recorded a save for the RailRiders last season, led by Ernesto Frieri’s seven. Gallegos, Heller, and Holder figure to be the Circle of Trust™ relievers given their Triple-A experience and success.

Now that we’ve gone through all the trouble of piecing together a projected Triple-A Scranton roster, I have to point out that this will be wrong. Very wrong. Beyond the usual “he didn’t make it when I thought he would” type of wrong too. Guys are going to get hurt in Spring Training. Nature of the beast. Hopefully no one important gets hurt, but guys are going to get hurt, and the Yankees will have to adjust, and that adjustment will change the Triple-A roster.

Thanks to the farm system, Triple-A Scranton will have a very exciting roster this season, even with injuries and promotions and demotions and all that constantly changing things. The lineup is stacked and I count no fewer than eight legitimate MLB calibers on the pitching staff. It’s been a few years since the Yankees last had to scramble to sign scrap heap players to fill out their Triple-A roster. Now they have quality prospects at pretty much every position, which in turn means they have better depth pieces available to the big league team.

Minor League Notes: Prospect Rankings, Bollinger, Graham

February 5, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa one week from tomorrow, which means my annual top 30 Yankees prospects list will be posted this Friday. The whole thing is written. Pretty sure this is the earliest I’ve finished it. I just need to proofread it a few more times and all that. Friday’s the day though. Here are some minor league notes to help pass the time.

Five Yankees on BP’s top 100 prospects list

Another top 100 list was released earlier today. Baseball Prospectus has Braves OF Ronald Acuna as the top prospect in baseball right now. (They didn’t include Angels RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani in their rankings.) Nationals OF Victor Robles is second. Five Yankees make BP’s list:

3. SS Gleyber Torres
26. OF Estevan Florial
51. RHP Chance Adams
57. LHP Justus Sheffield
100. RHP Albert Abreu

Noticeably absent: 3B Miguel Andujar, who ranked in the middle of other top 100 lists these last few weeks. In the chat, Jeffrey Paternostro said he is “just not an Andujar guy. I don’t love the swing or the throwing at third. He keeps making it work though, and I fully admit I may be too stubborn here.” To each his own.

Five Yankees on FanGraphs’ top 100 prospects list

Yet another top 100 list. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen posted their combined top 100 list today and they had Ohtani in the top spot, followed by Acuna and Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. Five Yankees made their FanGraphs top 100 list:

12. SS Gleyber Torres
14. 3B Miguel Andujar
39. LHP Justus Sheffield
59. RHP Albert Abreu
79. OF Estevan Florial

That is the lowest Torres appears on a top 100 list this year and, holy crap, also the highest Andujar appears. No other top 100 list has him higher than 54th. “Andujar has cut down on his swing-and-miss while also lifting the ball more and hitting it with more authority, an obviously rare and desirable combination when you’re already working with a toolsy prospect who was always young for his level,” says the write-up. Love it.

Law ranks top ten Yankees prospects (and more)

Two weeks ago Keith Law released his annual top 100 prospects list and organizational rankings. The Yankees had five top 100 guys plus two more on the “just missed” list, and they ranked second in the farm system rankings behind the Braves. Then, last week, Law posted his team-by-team prospect breakdown (subs. req’d), which includes a top ten list and lots more. His introductory Yankees blurb:

The Yankees have drafted well, they’ve scouted very well internationally, and they’ve kept most of the “right” guys in trades so far, such that their system is No. 2 in all of MLB even after promotions and a few deals. Their Trenton (Double-A) and Scranton Wilkes-Barre (Triple-A) affiliates should be extremely fun to watch this year.

Within the write-up are brief scouting reports on the Yankees’ non-top 100 lists. Law goes beyond the top ten with the Yankees and ranks 21 prospects total:

1. SS Gleyber Torres
2. LHP Justus Sheffield
3. 3B Miguel Andujar
4. RHP Freicer Perez
5. RHP Albert Abreu
6. OF Estevan Florial
7. RHP Domingo Acevedo

15. RHP Taylor Widener
16. RHP Trevor Stephan
17. SS Oswaldo Cabrera
18. 2B Nick Solak
19. RHP Cody Carroll
20. 3B Dermis Garcia
21. OF Jake Cave

8. RHP Dillon Tate
9. RHP Chance Adams
10. RHP Luis Medina
11. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
12. RHP Clarke Schmidt
13. SS Thairo Estrada
14. RHP Matt Sauer

That is an awful lot of right-handed pitchers. Law also mentions C Saul Torres, OF Billy McKinney, RHP Ben Heller, RHP Domingo German, and SS Hoy Jun Park in the write-up, and labels Medina as his sleeper. “Luis Medina is incredibly exciting, just a long way off, but he could be the next great starter prospect in what looks like a line of them from the majors on down,” he writes.

Four Yankees on ZiPS top 100 prospects

Over at ESPN, Dan Szymborski used ZiPS to put together a data-driven top 100 prospects list. For the most part the ZiPS list agrees with the scouting-based top 100 lists. Players are generally ranked in the same spot, with a few notable exceptions. Acuna tops this list as well. Four Yankees made the ZiPS top 100:

6. SS Gleyber Torres
41. RHP Chance Adams
51. OF Estevan Florial
79. 3B Miguel Andujar

LHP Justus Sheffield doesn’t make the list, and in the write-up, it is said “if he were projected to pitch in a less homer-friendly stadium than Yankee Stadium, Sheffield moves back into the top 100. In fact, as a Tampa Bay Ray he would get up to No. 68.” So there you go. Blame the ballpark for the Yankees not having a fifth ZiPS top 100 prospect.

Yankees sign Bollinger, release Graham

The Yankees have signed well-traveled LHP Ryan Bollinger to a minor league contract, it was announced during an Australian Baseball League broadcast. Bollinger, 26, was drafted by the Phillies in the 47th round of the 2009 draft, but did not sign. He spent 2010 in an independent league, 2011-13 in the White Sox system, 2014-16 in independent leagues, 2017 in Germany, and this offseason in Australia. He’s made nine starts with the Brisbane Bandits and thrown 54.1 innings with a 3.48 ERA and a 75/12 K/BB this winter. Would be something if this guy made it, huh?

In other transaction news, the Yankees have released RHP J.R. Graham, reports Matt Eddy. Graham came over from the Twins in a cash trade in May 2016, managed to spend the rest of the season on the 40-man roster, then was outrighted last year. The 28-year-old allowed 19 runs in 20.1 innings with Triple-A Scranton last season before going down with an injury in June. The Yankees have so many bullpen arms for Double-A and Triple-A in the system. It would’ve been tough to find room for Graham.

Misc. Notes: Medina, Double-A Trenton

To other quick notes to pass along:

Baseball America (subs. req’d) tabbed RHP Luis Medina as one of nine breakout prospects for 2018. “The Yankees’ system is full of powerful, high-end arms, and Medina might have the highest ceiling of them all … Medina has an excellent chance to find himself in next year’s Top 100 Prospects,” says the write-up.
The Trenton Thunder are rebranding themselves as the Trenton Pork Roll. For real. The Associates Press has the story. It’s for Friday nights only this season, starting May 18th. The team will wear special jerseys and “sell pork roll sandwiches and pork roll-themed merchandise” at the ballpark.

Pork roll-themed merchandise? Pork roll-themed merchandise.

Saturday Links: Prospects Rankings, DelPiano, Rule Changes

February 3, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Counting this one, there are only three more baseball-less weekends to go before Spring Training games begin. Can’t wait. Spring Training games are fun in their own way and, if you’re a Yankees fan, how can you not be excited right now? Anyway, here are some links and notes to check out.

Six Yankees on MLB.com’s top 100 prospects list

The crew at MLB.com released their annual top 100 prospects list last weekend. Angels RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, who is rookie eligible, sits in the top spot. He’s followed by Braves OF Ronald Acuna and Blue Jays 3B Vladimir Guerrero. The Yankees have six players in the top 100. Their rankings:

5. SS Gleyber Torres
44. OF Estevan Florial
48. LHP Justus Sheffield
65. 3B Miguel Andujar
74. RHP Albert Abreu
75. RHP Chance Adams

Former Yankees prospects Athletics SS Jorge Mateo (No. 72) and White Sox OF Blake Rutherford (No. 98) both made the top 100 as well. As always, MLB.com’s scouting grades and reports are free, so make sure you check those out. Fresh and updated info on all the top prospects in the farm system.

Yankees rank second in Baseball America’s farm system rankings

Earlier this week Baseball America released their annual organizational rankings, and they say the Yankees have the second best farm system in baseball behind the Braves. Keith Law said the same thing. “Atlanta has more close-to-the-majors pitching prospects, but in pure numbers, no one can match the Yankees’ seemingly endless waves of power arms. Gleyber Torres and Estevan Florial give the team a pair of high-upside position prospects,” says the subscriber-only report.

I have to say, I am pretty blown away the Yankees still have such a highly ranked farm system. Within the last 12 months they have graduated Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier, Jordan Montgomery, and Chad Green to the big leagues (and, technically, Tyler Wade), and traded away Mateo, Rutherford, James Kaprielian, Dustin Fowler, and Jorge Guzman. Ian Clarkin and Zack Littell aren’t nobodies either. That’s a ton of talent leaving the system! Leaving for good reasons of course, but still leaving. And yet, the Yankees still have a top tier farm system. Pretty awesome.

Yankees hire DelPiano

The Yankees have hired former Marlins vice president of player development Marc DelPiano, report Jon Heyman and Dan Martin. He is joining the pro scouting department. The Marlins let DelPiano and three other high level executives go a few weeks ago, after the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group took control. Interestingly enough, all four executives wound up with winning teams. Smart teams hiring smart people.

DelPiano, 50, played minor league ball briefly in the 1980s and is a veteran executive. He’s worked for the Expos, Marlins (twice), Red Sox, and Pirates as everything from a scout to a farm system director to special assistant to the general manager. Given his resume, I imagine DelPiano is getting a high level job, not a scouting position. The Yankees shifted Kevin Reese from director of pro scouting to senior director of player development back in November, so maybe DelPiano is Reese’s replacement as the pro scouting chief? We’ll find out (eventually).

MLB makes new pace-of-play proposal

According to Beth Harris, commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed MLB has presented a new pace-of-play proposal to the MLBPA. Under the new proposal, a pitch clock will not be implemented in 2018, and it won’t be implemented in 2019 either as long as the average time of game is under two hours and 55 minutes this season. (It was three hours and eight minutes last year. Hasn’t been below two hours and 55 minutes since 2010.) There are other changes in the proposal that would be phased in over time. I imagine those have to do with mound visits.

The MLBPA has already flat out rejected several pitch clock proposals and they’ve taken a hard line in pace-of-play talks this winter. MLB can unilaterally implement rule changes this year, but only last year’s proposal, which includes a 20-second pitch clock. It seems to me that, more than anything, Manfred and MLB are setting up the MLBPA to look like the bad guy here. This is a “we tried” proposal they know the union will reject, so when they implement a pitch clock, they can point to the MLBPA and say they made multiple offers. Whatever. I am pro anything that eliminates downtime within a game. Less standing around, please.

MLB will record dugout phone conversations

In an effort to combat sophisticated sign stealing, MLB is installing new dugout phones and will record all conversations, reports Ken Rosenthal. I’m sure you remember the Red Sox getting busted for stealing signs using Apple watches and information relayed from their video room. The Yankees were also fined for improper use of a dugout phone. I have no idea what they did, but they did something, enough to warrant a fine. Recording conversations figures to serve as a deterrent.

Stealing signs is not against the rules. I have no problem whatsoever with stealing signs. In fact, I encourage it. If a team doesn’t hide their signs well, too bad. That’s their problem. I am completely cool with stealing signs on the field — the runner at second looking in at the catcher, things like that — once it goes off the field and involves non-uniformed personnel, that’s a problem. That goes beyond sportsmanship, whether it’s an Apple watch or a dude with binoculars or whatever. MLB seems to agree. Who knew dugout phones were such a big deal?

Extra-innings rule may be coming to All-Star Game, Spring Training

According to Ronald Blum, MLB has proposed added an extra-inning tiebreaker rule to the All-Star Game and Spring Training games. Under the proposal, a leadoff runner would be put at second base starting with the 11th inning in the All-Star Game. The runner would be put at second in the 10th inning of spring games. Also, spring games would be capped at ten innings under the proposal. I can’t remember the last spring game to go longer than ten innings, but whatever.

These tiebreaker rules are pretty terrible — they were used during the World Baseball Classic last year and they destroyed the vibe of the game (the first batter bunted the runner up and the second batter was intentionally walked to set up the double play every single time) — and I hope they never make their way into meaningful games. The All-Star Game and Spring Training though? Who cares. Seems like an easy concession for the MLBPA to make. Agree to the tiebreaker rules in the All-Star Game and Spring Training, and ask for something in return.

Florial, Sheffield, Adams among 2018 Spring Training invitees

February 2, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to Tampa in one week and five days, and earlier this morning, the Yankees announced their list of non-roster Spring Training invitees. The list of 20 non-roster players includes some of the team’s best prospects. Here’s the list:

PITCHERS (11)
RHP Chance Adams
RHP Cody Carroll
RHP Cale Coshow
RHP Raynel Espinal
RHP J.P. Feyereisen
RHP David Hale
RHP Brady Lail
LHP Wade LeBlanc
LHP Justus Sheffield
RHP Dillon Tate
RHP Taylor Widener

CATCHERS (4)
Francisco Diaz
Erik Kratz
Chace Numata
Jorge Saez

INFIELDERS (4)
Danny Espinosa
Kyle Holder
Jace Peterson
Nick Solak

OUTFIELDERS (1)
Estevan Florial

As a reminder, all players on the 40-man roster will be in big league camp automatically. That includes top prospects like Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Domingo Acevedo, Albert Abreu, and Thairo Estrada. Ditto the no longer prospect eligible Clint Frazier. The 40-man roster is full, so the Yankees will have 60 players in camp total.

Hale, Kratz, Espinosa, and Peterson all signed minor league contracts in recent weeks. Everyone else is a product of the farm system. The only real surprise is Espinal, a 26-year-old righty who had an unreal minor league season a year ago, throwing 74.1 relief innings with a 1.09 ERA (2.23 FIP) and great strikeout (33.5%) and walk (5.4%) rates. He topped out at Double-A Trenton. Seems like Espinal impressed enough to get an invite to camp. Good for him.

Assuming everyone stays healthy and there are no surprise trades, the Yankees have three Opening Day roster spots available: second base, third base, and last bullpen spot. I imagine the out of options Chasen Shreve has a leg up on the final bullpen spot. Torres, Andujar, Estrada, Espinosa, Peterson, Ronald Torreyes, and Tyler Wade are the primary competitors for the second and third base jobs.

When I put together my non-roster players preview a few weeks ago, I came up with 20 names. Espinal, Widener, and Coshow were the only actual non-roster players I missed. They take the place of Stephen Tarpley, James Reeves, and mystery first baseman yet to be signed on my projected non-roster list. Not too shabby on my part.

Yankees land six on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list

January 22, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Spring Training is three weeks away and that means it is top 100 prospect season. All the usual publications will be updating their lists in the coming days and weeks.

Earlier today the gang at Baseball America released their 2018 top 100 prospects list, which is topped by Braves OF Ronald Acuna. Angels RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani is second and Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. is third. Six Yankees made the top 100:

6. SS Gleyber Torres
38. OF Estevan Florial
41. LHP Justus Sheffield
59. 3B Miguel Andujar
77. RHP Albert Abreu
81. RHP Chance Adams

Athletics SS Jorge Mateo (No. 64), Marlins RHP Jorge Guzman (No. 87), and Athletics OF Dustin Fowler (No. 88) all made the top 100 as well. Mateo and Fowler went to the A’s in the Sonny Gray trade, and Guzman went to the Marlins in the Giancarlo Stanton trade. White Sox OF Blake Rutherford, the headliner in the David Robertson/Tommy Kahnle/Todd Frazier trade, did not make the top 100.

I always find it amusing when the prospects are in different orders in the top 100 list and the team top ten list. When Baseball America posted their top ten Yankees prospects last month, Adams was ahead of Andujar and Abreu. Now he’s behind them in the top 100. Such is life when one person ranks team prospects and a group of people rank top 100 lists. That’s okay. Differences of opinion are good.

Anyway, the Braves have eight top 100 prospects and are the only team with more than the Yankees. Considering Mateo, Guzman, and Fowler came out of the system — Mateo and Fowler were originally signed/drafted by the Yankees, Guzman came over in the Brian McCann trade — that’s some collection of Yankees-bred talent in the top 100. It doesn’t even include OF Clint Frazier, who exceeded the rookie threshold by four at-bats last year and is no longer prospect eligible. Good times in the farm system.