Chicago Cubs Archives - Page 4 of 8

Sherman: Cubs won’t trade Schwarber for Andrew Miller

June 9, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

From the “no duh” department comes this nugget: the Cubs are unwilling to trade injured outfielder Kyle Schwarber for Andrew Miller, reports Joel Sherman. We’ve yet to hear whether Chicago has interest in Miller, but come on. Of course they do. Miller’s awesome, and as good as the Cubs are, the one thing they lack is a shutdown left-handed reliever. (Miller is excellent regardless of handedness.)

Schwarber, 23, tore his ACL in an outfield collision three games into the season. He came up and hit .246/.355/.487 (131 wRC+) with 16 homers in 69 games last season. I’m not as high on Schwarber as most — he’s a DH who probably needs a platoon partner, and now he’s coming off a major knee injury too — and I believe the Cubs should be open to trading a guy who isn’t on their active roster for help at the deadline, but Schwarber is certainly a good young player. Anyway, I have some thoughts on this.

1. The price for Miller should be very high. The Yankees don’t absolutely have to trade Miller. He’s signed for another two years and holding on to him through the trade deadline is a perfectly viable strategy. Free agent closers like Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon and, of course, Aroldis Chapman, are going demand huge dollars this winter. Miller will represent a much more cost effective alternative. There will be a trade market in the offseason too.

So, with Miller being so valuable, the Yankees should stick to their guns and ask for top young players. And you know what? They’ve done that already. They held their ground over the winter and rejected a package from the Astros similar to what Houston sent to the Phillies for Ken Giles because they felt it wasn’t enough. They’re in control of the bullpen market at the trade deadline because of the arms they can offer. Miller will have a ton of suitors and it only takes one team to meet New York’s asking price.

2. One great prospect or several good prospects? I’ve been thinking about this a bit and the Schwarber non-rumor gives me a reason to bring it up. The Yankees are going to get all sorts of offers for Miller (and Chapman), but do they prefer one high-end prospect or a package of two or three good prospects? Would they rather have, say, a top ten overall prospect or two guys in the 80-100 range plus a third piece?

This all depends on the players of course, and I don’t think there’s a right answer. Giles was traded for five players but none were a truly great prospect. Miller fetched a top 25 caliber prospect (Eduardo Rodriguez) when he was traded from the Red Sox to the Orioles a few years back. The Yankees figure to be in position to demand whatever they want if they do decide to take the plunge and trade Miller. I’m curious to see what kind of return they seek.

3. Trade season will pick up soon. The first major trade of the offseason just went down (James Shields to the White Sox) and once the draft ends this weekend, trade chatter will pick up. Right now clubs are focusing on the draft. Once that’s out of the way, focus shifts back to the big league club, and teams are going to start looking to address their needs.

I think there’s a big advantage in acting early, regardless of whether you’re buying or selling. If you’re buying, the new player(s) will be able to help you for a longer period of time. And if you’re selling, you’re trading away more games and can ask for more in return. I don’t see the Yankees doing anything quickly, however. They’re going to wait as long as possible before deciding whether to pull the plug and sell.

DiCaro: Cubs focusing on Eovaldi for possible trade

May 31, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

According to Julie DiCaro, the Cubs are focusing on Nathan Eovaldi — among other pitchers — as a possible trade target before the deadline. Nothing is imminent and it’s unclear if the two teams have even talked about a deal at this point. Chicago could be interested in Eovaldi the same way the other 28 teams would be interested in Eovaldi.

Rotation help doesn’t seem like a priority for the Cubs — their starters have the lowest ERA (2.60) and second lowest FIP (3.33) in baseball — but they lack depth and seem to be concerned about the way Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel wore down late last season. Hammel left yesterday’s start with a hamstring injury too. Adam Warren is their sixth starter and there’s not much behind him at all. Here are some thoughts about Eovaldi and the Cubs.

1. The Yankees match up very well with the Cubs. The Cubs are baseball’s best team by almost every objective measure. They have the best record (35-14) and run differential (+133) in the game, and they seem to do everything well. Hit, pitch, defend, run the bases, you name it. They’re as good as any team we’ve seen since the 1998 Yankees. No doubt about it.

The Cubbies are not perfect though. No team ever is. They lack rotation depth as I mentioned. They’re also short a shutdown left-handed reliever, someone who can neutralize Bryce Harper or Adrian Gonzalez or Brandon Belt in the postseason. They could use a left fielder too with Kyle Schwarber hurt and Jorge Soler not doing a whole lot. (They’ve played Kris Bryant in left and Tommy La Stella at third on occasion.)

The Yankees can offer the Cubs rotation depth (Eovaldi, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda), a shutdown lefty reliever (Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman), and a replacement left fielder (Brett Gardner). Heck, the Cubbies need a center fielder going forward with Dexter Fowler set to become a free agent again, so Gardner would fit in long-term. The Cubs have some needs and the Yankees have some pretty nice options to address those needs.

2. Do the Cubs match up with the Yankees? Here’s where it gets tricky. The Yankees have what the Cubs need, but what can the Cubs offer in return? Their farm system isn’t all that great at the moment — Baseball America ranked their system 20th before the season — and I doubt they’ll be willing to tear up their big league roster. They want to add to their roster, not subtract from it.

Javier Baez, the former top prospect, isn’t hitting much again (72 wRC+) as the club’s backup infielder. He’s extremely talented but remains a high risk project. I’m certain the Cubs will be willing to deal current top prospect Gleyber Torres, a 19-year-old shortstop having a nice season in High Class-A (110 wRC+), but probably not No. 2 prospect Willson Contreras, a catcher. They’re set at short long-term with Addison Russell but not behind the plate.

Here is MLB.com’s top 30 Cubs prospects list. Double-A third baseman Jeimer Candelario, Triple-A righties Pierce Johnson and Ryan Williams, and Triple-A first baseman/DH Dan Vogelbach stand out to me as possible trade fits for New York. Then again, when it comes to trading someone like Eovaldi (or Miller or Gardner, etc.), the goal should be acquiring the best possible talent regardless of position. Not filling specific needs.

3. Eovaldi seems like a keeper, doesn’t he? The Yankees are kinda sorta rebuilding. They don’t seem to want to admit it, but they’re in a holding pattern until most of the big money contracts come off the books the next two years, so in the meantime they’ve been trying to add youth wherever possible. That is the Yankees version of a rebuild, like it or not.

Eovaldi is one of the young pieces the Yankees have added and he’s made legitimate improvement since the start of last season. The splitter has been a total game-changer. He’s got an out pitch now and it has helped his fastball play up too. From Opening Day 2014 through June 20th of last season, the last game before he switched from the forkball grip to the splitter grip, opponents hit .320 with a .138 ISO against Eovaldi’s heater. It’s .255 and .089 since.

The Eovaldi the Yankees have right now looks totally different than the Eovaldi they acquired last year. He’s got a new and highly effective offspeed pitch, he’s giving up way fewer hits — remember how he led the NL in hits allowed in 2014? he’s allowed only 56 hits in 60.2 innings this year in the tougher league — and he seems to be pitching with much more confidence too. How can you not be impressed with the improvement he’s made with the Yankees?

You’re welcome to disagree, but Eovaldi strikes me as the type of player the Yankees should keep and build around. He’s only 26, he throws 100 mph on the regular, and the splitter is a tangible explanation for his improvement. It’s no wonder the Cubs have interest in him, right? The Yankees should look into signing Eovaldi to a long-term extension before considering trading him. He’s a potential building block for a team short on controllable pitching.

4. It doesn’t hurt to listen. Obvious caveat is obvious. There’s no reason not to listen to offers for Eovaldi from the Cubs or any other team. Someone just might make an offer that is too good to pass up. The upcoming free agent pitching class is really awful. The trade market is going to be a seller’s market, and the Yankees might be able to benefit from that.

The Yankees know Eovaldi better than anyone, and it could be they don’t like something they see in his medicals. Or maybe they’ve already approached his agent about an extension and found their demands outrageous. Who knows? Brian Cashman is no idiot. He’s going to listen to offers. Eovaldi is part of the solution, not part of the problem, so the asking price should be high.

The Rest of MLB [2016 Season Preview]

April 1, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

The new season is upon us. Opening Day is Monday, which means it’s time to wrap up our annual Season Preview series. As always, we’ll end the series with a quick look around the league. Some of this is serious, most of it isn’t. Enjoy.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Why They’ll Suck: The middle infield is a mess and their corner outfield defense is going to be pretty bad if Yasmany Tomas plays left everyday. Also, they’ll probably trade some good players to unload a bad contract again.
Bold Prediction: Shelby Miller actually pitches well. I have no idea why so many analysts think he’s bad.

Atlanta Braves
Why They’ll Suck: Because they are trying to suck. Rebuilding is just a nice way of saying tanking.
Bold Prediction: Nick Markakis beats his ZiPS projection and slugs .370.

Chicago Cubs
Why They’ll Suck: They’re going to strike out way too much. It’s also only a matter of time until someone gets bit by some wild animal Joe Maddon brings into the clubhouse.
Bold Prediction: Adam Warren is their best starter. Boom!

Chicago White Sox
Why They’ll Suck: They lost their leader, Drake LaRoche.
Bold Prediction: We find out Adam LaRoche was the one who complained about Drake LaRoche being in the clubhouse all the time.

Cincinnati Reds
Why They’ll Suck: Their rotation is Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen, Jon Moscot, and John Lamb. No, wait, that’s the list of their injured starters. Now they have to turn to the B-team.
Bold Prediction: Joey Votto finally loses his mind, but in a polite, Canadian way. He’s already doing this between pitches:

Cleveland Indians
Why They’ll Suck: In all seriousness, their entire starting outfield is either hurt (Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall) or suspended (Abe Almonte). They’re a Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco injury away from 85 losses. Beware.
Bold Prediction: Francisco Lindor leads all shortstops in WAR.

Colorado Rockies
Why They’ll Suck: The Rockies exist in a perpetual state of suck. Fun Fact: They have never once won a division title. They’ve finished as high as second place only three times in their 23 years of existence.
Bold Prediction: They finally trade Carlos Gonzalez. I’m thinking … Orioles.

Detroit Tigers
Why They’ll Suck: They’ve punted defense at the four corner positions and, inevitably, the relievers they acquired this winter will stink.
Bold Prediction: Justin Verlander bounces back and finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting.

Houston Astros
Why They’ll Suck: Karma for doing very little in the offseason outside of adding a new closer and fifth starter. The rebuild is supposed to be over.
Bold Prediction: Carlos Correa is more Alex Gonzalez than Alex Rodriguez.

Kansas City Royals
Why They’ll Suck: They replaced Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist with Ian Kennedy and Christian Colon. Like, on purpose.
Bold Prediction: Kennedy wins 18 games and Colon hits .310. Eff the Royals, man.

Los Angeles Angels
Why They’ll Suck: The Angels have surrounded Mike Trout with as little position player talent as possible in an effort to make him look even greater by comparison.
Bold Prediction: Jered Weaver’s fastball hits 84 mph once or twice.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Why They’ll Suck: The Dodgers have surrounded Clayton Kershaw with as little pitching talent as possible in an effort to make him look even greater by comparison.
Bold Prediction: It becomes clear Yasiel Puig peaked early.

Miami Marlins
Why They’ll Suck: The fans and players are doomed to pay for Jeffrey Loria’s evil villian-ness. Fun Fact: They’ve never won a division title either. They’ve also never lost a postseason series.
Bold Prediction: Christian Yelich breaks out and puts up Andrew McCutchen numbers. I’m serious about that one.

Milwaukee Brewers
Why They’ll Suck: They’re another team that is going to suck on purpose. Before long they’re going to trade Jonathan Lucroy too.
Bold Prediction: Ramon Flores hits 15 dingers with a .350 OBP.

Minnesota Twins
Why They’ll Suck: I don’t know, but I’m sure Twins fans will blame it on Joe Mauer.
Bold Prediction: Miguel Sano plays right field better than Torii Hunter did last year.

New York Mets
Why They’ll Suck: They’re still the Mets. Case in point: the recent Matt Harvey bladder story. Last year’s pennant didn’t change anything in that regard.
Bold Prediction: They have to trade for a starting pitcher at the deadline.

Oakland Athletics
Why They’ll Suck: No joke, I can name only one A’s starter (Sonny Gray) and one A’s infielder (Marcus Semien). Is Bobby Crosby still playing?
Bold Prediction: Josh Reddick gets traded for a holy crap package at the trade deadline. I’m thinking … Royals.

Philadelphia Phillies
Why They’ll Suck: Still reeling from the 2009 World Series, obviously.
Bold Prediction: Someone not named Maikel Franco or Ryan Howard hits a home run.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Why They’ll Suck: The baseball gods will not let John Jaso’s hair go unpunished.

Bold Prediction: Mark Melancon is traded at the deadline. I’m thinking … Dodgers.

St. Louis Cardinals
Why They’ll Suck: The Cardinals will never suck. The only thing they suck at is sucking. Their ace made four starts and their highest paid position player hit four home runs last season, and they still won 100 games. The Cardinals, man.
Bold Prediction: Three years after learning to play second base and one year after learning to hit for power, Matt Carpenter picks up pitching and saves 46 games.

San Diego Padres
Why They’ll Suck: I’m not entirely convinced the Padres exist at this point. Are we sure MLB still lets them into the league? What an amazingly nondescript franchise.
Bold Prediction: Someone throws the first no-hitter in franchise history. I’ll go with Colin Rea, who is a real player and definitely not someone I just made up.

San Francisco Giants
Why They’ll Suck: They buy into the “even year trend” a little too much and give Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner weeks off at a time this summer.
Bold Prediction: Bumgarner out-slugs the starting outfield.

Seattle Mariners
Why They’ll Suck: I don’t know how it will happen exactly, but they’ll suck. The Mariners are the Wile E. Coyote of MLB. Every time they looked poised for success, they crash into the mountain with a tunnel painted on the side of it.
Bold Prediction: Bob Cano mashes 30 taters and finishes in the top three of the MVP voting. I’m expecting a big year from Robbie.

Texas Rangers
Why They’ll Suck: They won’t suck. They’ll be just good enough to get thisclose to winning something meaningful before having it ripped away again. Think Game Six of the 2011 World Series, or the seventh inning of Game Five of last year’s ALDS. That’s how the Rangers roll.
Bold Prediction: Josh Hamilton leads the team in home runs.

Washington Nationals
Why They’ll Suck: They’re the NL version of the Red Sox. They have talent and everyone buys the hype. It should work! But it doesn’t.

Bold Prediction: Bryce Harper is even better this year.

Recent free agent signings clear up trade possibilities for Brett Gardner

January 25, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Over the last week, the two best unsigned free agent outfielders came off the board when Justin Upton signed with the Tigers and Yoenis Cespedes agreed to return to the Mets. Others like Alex Gordon and Denard Span signed a few weeks back, so, with Spring Training a little less than a month away, Dexter Fowler (tied to draft pick compensation) and Austin Jackson are the top available free agent outfielders.

The Upton and Cespedes signings took away two potential trade partners for Brett Gardner, though a trade with the Mets was never all that likely. I think Brian Cashman and Sandy Alderson would do a deal if they felt it improved their teams, but a crosstown trade might make the ownership groups a little queasy. No one wants to lose a trade to their geographic rival.

Anyway, with Upton and Cespedes (and Gordon and Span) off the board, the trade market for Gardner has become a little more clear. Gardner has been on the market all winter as the Yankees look for ways to land a young pitcher, though the crowded free agent outfield class complicated things. Now the free agent market isn’t so crowded. Here are the teams that could be in play for Gardner.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles did bring back Chris Davis recently, yet their outfield situation remains Adam Jones and some combination of Hyun-Soo Kim, Nolan Reimold, L.J. Hoes, and Rule 5 Draft pick Joey Rickard. And I guess Mark Trumbo too. There’s a clear fit for Gardner in Baltimore — the O’s could bat him leadoff and drop Manny Machado into a run-producing lineup spot — but the chances of a major Yankees-Orioles trade are tiny.

Chicago Cubs
The Cubbies have been after Gardner for a while — they originally wanted Gardner in the Starlin Castro trade — and they could still use a true center fielder and leadoff hitter. Chicago does have a full outfield at the moment (Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Jorge Soler), though Soler’s name has popped up trade rumors, so a Gardner deal could rekindle those efforts. But, again, the problem with a Cubs trade all winter has been their lack of young pitching to offer. I’d argue the Yankees should focus on getting the best possible talent for Gardner regardless of position, but they’re focused on arms.

Chicago White Sox
Reports indicate the White Sox were in on both Upton and Cespedes in recent weeks, though they were not willing to extend their offer beyond three years. The ChiSox have added both Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie this offseason in an effort to fix one of MLB’s least productive infields, and they shouldn’t stop there. They’re not good enough to be AL Central favorites and not bad enough to rebuild. With Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Jose Abreu in their primes, the White Sox should continue adding in an effort to contend, and Gardner would be a massive upgrade over Avisail Garcia. Quintana or Carlos Rodon for Gardner isn’t happening, but could Erik Johnson? That’s the extent of Chicago’s pitching depth.

Cleveland Indians
The Indians, again. They talked to the Yankees about an outfielder for pitcher trade earlier this winter, though obviously nothing came of it. Cleveland has plenty of pitching to spare and they need outfield help — Michael Brantley will be out until at least May following shoulder surgery, so their outfield mix right now is Rajai Davis, Abe Almonte, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Collin Cowgill — so it seems like there should be a match. The problem? The Indians operate with a very strict budget and don’t have room for a $13M a year outfielder. The Yankees would have to pay down some of Gardner’s salary, which of course means they should expect more in return. The Tribe likely have their eyes on cheaper outfield options.

Los Angeles Angels
It never seemed like the Angels were going to make a serious run at Cespedes or Upton. They have a clear need for a left fielder — the currently have a Daniel Nava/Craig Gentry platoon planned, and yikes — and some pitching depth to spare, namely Nick Tropeano, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, and Matt Shoemaker. Some are more available than others, obviously. (Heaney’s close to untouchable, I think.)

I think there’s a real possibility for an Angels trade right now. Angels GM Billy Eppler is said to be a big Gardner fan and the Halos really need both a leadoff hitter and another lefty bat. Gardner would push Kole Calhoun into a middle of the lineup spot. He’s a great fit for them, assuming it works financially. (The Angels want to stay under the luxury tax threshold and have about $12M in wiggle room.) I don’t think I would call a trade likely, but I do think if Gardner is dealt, the Angels are the favorite to land him.

St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have a lot of outfielders (Matt Holliday, Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Brandon Moss) but no true center fielder. Grichuk’s the most athletic of the group so he has the center field job by default. St. Louis doesn’t strike me as the kind of organization to make a knee-jerk reactionary move, but it’s tough to ignore all the improvements the Cubs made this winter, so the Cardinals could feel some pressure to keep pace. Gardner would solve a clear roster problem and the Cards have some young pitching to offer (Marco Gonzales, Tim Cooney). Money is no issue either — St. Louis bid big for Heyward and David Price, and were in the market for Chris Davis, yet they’ve only walked away with Mike Leake this offseason.

Washington Nationals
I’m not sure the Nationals are a possibility for Gardner following the Ben Revere trade. Yes, they made a run at Cespedes, so they’re still willing to add an outfielder, but Gardner and Cespedes are very different types of players. Washington might not want another left-handed hitting leadoff type with Revere on board. Never say never, but it appears the Nationals are no longer a match for Gardner following the Revere trade.

* * *

Keep in mind the Yankees are not the only team with a spare outfielder at the moment. The Dodgers would probably love to move Andre Ethier before he gains ten-and-five rights in April, plus the Rockies have four outfielders for three spots (Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Gerardo Parra). The outfield trade market is not limited solely to Gardner. Outfield needy teams have options.

Realistically, the Angels and Cardinals appear to be the best possible fits for Gardner. The White Sox, Cubs, and Indians are also potential suitors to a lesser extent. I still don’t expect the Yankees to trade Gardner before Spring Training, but at least now the trade market is a bit more clear with the big name free agents off the board. That also means there are fewer suitors, though there are still several clubs out there in need of outfield help.

The Yankees, the Cubs, and the potential for a three-team blockbuster

December 31, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

For the second straight offseason, the Yankees have focused on improving their team through trades rather than free agency. They’ve made four trades so far this offseason, sending out a total of eight players in exchange for Aroldis Chapman, Starlin Castro, Aaron Hicks, Luis Cessa, and Chad Green. Chapman and Castro are the headliners, but the depth additions shouldn’t be overlooked either.

Brett Gardner and Andrew Miller have been the subject of trade rumors all offseason, mostly because they’re the most tradeable veterans on the club. They’re making real money and have positive trade value. Gardner and Miller represent opportunities to cut costs and add young talent. The cutting costs part is sorta dumb for a team with New York’s resources, but adding young talent? That always makes sense.

Meanwhile, a couple hundred miles west and in the other league, the Cubs have completed their rebuilding process and are now taking steps to improve their status as contenders. They’ve added John Lackey, Ben Zobrist, and Jason Heyward this offseason, plus Adam Warren and Trevor Cahill as depth pieces. The Cubs are where the Yankees want to be in the near future, albeit without all those messy fifth place finishes along the way.

Even after all those moves, the Cubs still have some roster issues. They’re in great shape, probably the best team in baseball at this very moment, but there are always upgrades to be made. The Cubbies could really use a center fielder to push Heyward back to this natural right field — can you imagine their outfield defense when Heyward is out of the lineup? goodness — and another high-end reliever wouldn’t hurt. In fact, Bruce Levine says the Cubs are “hell bent” on improving the bullpen.

The Yankees, as it just so happens, have both a center fielder (Gardner!) and a high-end reliever (Miller!) to offer. The Cubs asked about Gardner early in the Castro trade talks, so we know they have some level of interest in him. As for Miller, well, every team wants him. He’s great and he’s affordable. If he weren’t a Yankee, we’d be talking about ways the Yankees might be able to get him. Brett Taylor at Bleacher Nation did a great job breaking down the Miller/Cubs stuff.

The potential for a trade is so obvious. The Yankees could send Gardner and/or Miller to the Cubs and the Cubs could send some young players to the Yankees. There’s a slight problem with that though. The Yankees have been focusing on young starting pitching in any Gardner or Miller trade — it’s a clear organizational need — and Chicago doesn’t have any to offer. The closest is Kyle Hendricks, who’s a fine pitcher, but is the kind of upper-80s fastball guy who goes from high-3.00s ERA/low-3.00s FIP in the NL to mid-4.00s ERA/high-3.00s FIP in Yankee Stadium and the AL East.

The Yankees match up well with the Cubs but the Cubs don’t necessarily match up well with the Yankees, not unless the Yankees change their plans and stop prioritizing young pitching. When you’re talking about an above-average everyday player like Gardner and an elite player like Miller, I don’t think it would be wrong to focus on getting the most talent regardless of position. That said, the Yankees don’t have to trade Gardner or Miller. Trading them almost certainly makes the 2016 (and 2017?) Yankees worse.

If the Yankees are going to stick to their guns and continue to ask for a young pitcher, then a direct trade with the Cubs probably won’t happen. That said, Brian Cashman and Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein have both shown they are very willing to get creative, so I do think the potential for a three-team trade exists. Gardner and/or Miller go to the Cubs, the Cubs send young players to the third team, and the third team sends a young pitcher to the Yankees. That seems … doable? I guess so. There are two hurdles to clear.

1. Who is the third team?

The elephant in the room. The third team will need to have a young starter they’re willing to move for a young position player(s) to make this work. (Since the Cubs have no young arms, position players it is.) These are the clubs that jump to mind:

Angels: Need a left fielder and a second baseman, the cheaper the better. Could spare Nick Tropeano or even Andrew Heaney if the price is right. The Cashman-Billy Eppler connection doesn’t necessarily mean talks would go smoothly.
Athletics: The A’s are in a perpetual rebuild and will take any decent young players they can get their hands on. Sonny Gray ain’t happening. What about Jesse Hahn or Kendall Graveman?
Indians: Need outfielders, also the cheaper the better. They have plenty of young pitching, both high-end (Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar) and low-end (Cody Anderson, Josh Tomlin).
Nationals: Need an outfielder to replace Denard Span, preferably a center fielder but it’s not imperative. (Bryce Harper can play center.) Joe Ross and A.J. Cole are among their youngins. The Yankees could probably do a direct trade with Washington. No need for three-team fanciness.
Rays: They’ll take pretty much anyone who’s young and have been listening to offers for both Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi this offseason. Would they do a deal with the Yankees and vice versa? I think it’s unlikely.

So that’s my list. I came up with five teams that could fit as the third team in a Yankees-Cubs three-team swap, and one of those five teams is the Rays. I would be surprised if the Yankees and Rays are open to dealing with each other. So in reality, it’s four teams: the Angels, A’s, Indians, and Nationals. I didn’t miss anyone obvious, did I?

2. What wouldn’t the Cubs just keep the young starter for themselves?

A good question! The Cubs have been looking for a young starter themselves this offseason. Joel Sherman says they offered Jorge Soler for Shelby Miller and were the runner-up to get him. Marc Topkin says they talked to the Rays about sending Javier Baez to Tampa for Cobb. So the Cubbies are out there trying to get a young starter themselves.

So I guess the answer to the question is … the Cubs are in win-now mode and they don’t need a young starter to win in 2016. That make sense? Their rotation is full as it is and they have some depth as well (Travis Wood, Warren, Cahill). They need the center fielder and top notch reliever more than a future rotation piece at the moment. The Yankees are kinda sorta trying to contend in 2016 but are mostly focusing on 2017 and beyond.

* * *

This is where I acknowledge the odds of a Gardner/Miller Yankees/Cubs three-team trade are very small. Three-team deals are complicated, and at this point of the offseason, most teams have handled their major business and aren’t looking to shake up their roster.

The potential for such a trade does exist though. The Yankees have the pieces to address Chicago’s biggest needs, and the Cubs have the kind of young talent that can pry loose a young starter. Given Cashman’s and Epstein’s willingness to get creative and made big deals, don’t be surprised if the two sides explore a three-team blockbuster as a way of getting what they need.

Assessing possible trade partners for Brett Gardner

December 23, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

Things have slowed down of late, but Brett Gardner has been a popular name on the trade rumor circuit this offseason. He’s one of the few Yankee veterans with positive trade value, so it’s not a surprise the team is at least listening to offers as they aim to get younger. The Mariners and Cubs both checked in, possibly the Indians as well.

“I think it’d be more likely that we keep them than move them,” said Brian Cashman to Bryan Hoch at the Winter Meetings, referring to Gardner and Andrew Miller. “I say that recognizing that if somebody wants to ring a bell that I’ve put out there, then that could happen as early as tomorrow. But if I’m predicting anything, I’d predict that they would be here, not somewhere else.”

It’s easy to say clubs looking for outfield help can simply turn to the free agent market, where quality players like Adam Gordon and Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton remain unsigned, but not every team can afford them. Gardner is owed $37.5M over the next three years. That might buy you a year and a half of Cespedes or Upton. Gardner also has the advantage of being a legitimate center fielder.

I don’t necessarily want the Yankees to move Gardner, but there are reasons to do so. There are still plenty of teams that need outfield help at this point of the offseason. Some teams are more realistic candidates than others — for example, no rebuilding club wants Gardner, so it’s contenders only — especially if the Yankees stick to their demand of a young starter under control beyond 2017. Let’s run down the possible suitors.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Outfielders? A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Yasmany Tomas.
Young Starters? Robbie Ray and Chase Anderson. I assume Archie Bradley is off-limits.
Cash? Lots, apparently. Their massive new television deal just kicked in, as Zack Greinke found out.

The D’Backs had enough outfield depth to include Ender Inciarte in the Shelby Miller trade, and it stands to reason they’re committed to Tomas after giving him $68.5M last offseason. If so, they’re not a fit for Gardner. Pollock and Peralta aren’t going anywhere. They’re way too good. Arizona may have a young starter to spare and chances are they can afford Gardner, but the outfield is currently too crowded. A Fit? No.

Baltimore Orioles
Outfielders? Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, and, uh, Nolan Reimold? Egads.
Young Starters? Outside of Kevin Gausman, no one worthwhile.
Cash? Yeah. They just offered Chris Davis $150M or so.

Man, is Gardner not a perfect fit for the O’s? He gives them a solid left fielder and leadoff hitter, allowing them to put Manny Machado in the middle of the lineup. Gardner’s also affordable, he knows the ballpark, knows the division, and his lefty bat would help balance their righty heavy lineup. It’s such a great fit.

Of course, Orioles owner Peter Angelos would sooner play with a 24-man roster than make a significant trade with the Yankees. He had a contentious relationship with George Steinbrenner and he still holds the grudge to this day. Never say never, but it’s hard to see Angelos signing off on a significant trade with New York. That they lack a suitable non-Gausman young starter to send back also complicates things. A Fit? No.

Chicago Cubs
Outfielders? Jason Heyward and Jorge Soler. Kyle Schwarber plays an outfielder on TV.
Young Starters? Adam Warren! But seriously folks, no.
Cash? Oh indeed.

The Cubbies are no longer up-and-coming. They’re all-in. That much is clear. Right now the plan is to play Heyward in center field with Soler and Schwarber in the corners, though there’s talk they may move Soler for a young starter, which would push Heyward to right and free up center. Gardner would fill that center field hole perfectly. The problem? The Cubbies don’t have a young starter to send back to New York. That’s why they signed John Lackey and are open to flipping Soler for an arm. I mean, I guess Kyle Hendricks counts, but I’m not a fan. A Fit? Maybe.

Cleveland Indians
Outfielders? Michael Brantley will be out until May following shoulder surgery, leaving only Rajai Davis, Abe Almonte, Collin Cowgill, and Lonnie Chisenhall. (Chisenhall’s an outfielder now.)
Young Starters? Plenty. Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar would be ideal, Cody Anderson or Josh Tomlin are more likely.
Cash? Unlikely. Payroll has hovered around $85M for a few years now, and they have $64.5M on the books plus another $15.1M in projected arbitration salaries.

The payroll situation is a significant obstacle. The Yankees could always eat salary to facilitate a trade, but I can’t imagine they’d pay Gardner to play for another team, especially another AL contender. The Indians just went on a mini-spending spree (Davis, Mike Napoli) and the front office indicated they won’t be spending any more money. The Yankees have an outfielder to spare and the Indians appear to have a starter to spare. The finances are messing things up. A Fit? Maybe.

Detroit Tigers
Outfielders? Anthony Gose, Cameron Maybin, J.D. Martinez.
Young Starters? I assume Daniel Norris is off-limits, leaving Shane Greene and Matt Boyd.
Cash? For shizzle.

The Tigers are going for it next season. They’ve added Maybin, Justin Wilson, Jordan Zimmermann, and Francisco Rodriguez so far this offseason. There’s an obvious opening in left field — Gose and Maybin would platoon in center, ideally — and Gardner would fill that spot well. He plays strong defense for spacious Comerica Park and gives them a nice leadoff option.

As for the young starters Detroit has to offer … eh. Boyd is an extreme fly ball guy who is as generic as generic lefties get. Greene? I know more than a few people out there would be cool with the idea of bringing him back, except I’m sure no one would think that if he wasn’t an ex-Yankee. If Greene came up and debuted with any team other than the Yankees, no one would love the idea of acquiring him after the season he just had. A Fit? Maybe.

Kansas City Royals
Outfielders? Lorenzo Cain is currently flanked by Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando. Yeah.
Young Starters? Yordano Ventura is presumably off-limits. Danny Duffy might not be. That’s it.
Cash? Seems likely. They had a $113M payroll last year and are currently at $108M for 2016, including arbitration projections. They just won the World Series and I assume payroll will increase. Payroll increased $10M following their 2014 postseason run, after all.

The Royals have a clear need for outfield help. They wisely let the unproductive Alex Rios walk as a free agent and will likely lose Alex Gordon to a club with a larger payroll. GM Dayton Moore has said they’re willing to give Dyson a chance as a starting outfielder, but Orlando? He was a nice story as a 29-year-old rookie in 2015, but he didn’t hit at all. Starting him should be a non-option.

Assuming the money works out, the only really issue is finding a suitable return. Duffy is interesting, though the Yankees are looking for guys they can control beyond 2017, and he doesn’t fit. He’ll be a free agent after 2017. That’s pretty much all the young pitching the Royals have to offer. They’re been scouring the market for an extra arm this offseason just like New York. A Fit? Maybe.

Los Angeles Angels
Outfielders? Woo Mike Trout! Kole Calhoun’s good too. Then there’s Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry.
Young Starters? Andrew Heaney ain’t happening. Nick Tropeano and the not-so-young Matt Shoemaker might.
Cash? Indubitably.

GM Billy Eppler told reporters he’s ready to roll with the Nava/Gentry platoon in left field, which sounds so unappealing. That would have been a good idea from, like, 2012-13. In 2015? Nah. The Angels also could use a left-handed bat to balance their lineup. Gardner would slot right in as the leadoff hitter and allow them to use Calhoun in a run-producing spot.

Furthermore, the Angels have some young pitching to offer, specifically Tropeano. I wrote about him in last week’s mailbag. Heaney would be ideal but it’s just not going to happen. It’s not realistic. The Gardner for Tropeano framework could make sense for both clubs. Eppler and Cashman certainly have a good relationship, which could help expedite things. A Fit? Yes.

St. Louis Cardinals
Outfielders? Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Tommy Pham.
Young Starters? Yes. Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha ain’t happening. Think Tyler Lyons, Tim Cooney, or maybe personal fave Marco Gonzales instead.
Cash? Yeah. They offered Heyward $200M and David Price $180M, reportedly.

This has been a tough offseason for the Cardinals. By bWAR, they lost their best pitcher (John Lackey) and position player (Heyward) to the rival Cubs. They made runs at Price and Heyward but fell short. Yesterday they added Mike Leake, who will probably end up throwing 230 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA in 2015 because of Cardinals Devil Magic™.

Even with all those outfield bodies, the Cardinals lack a true center fielder. Grichuk is the center fielder by default and he’s no better than average out there. Gardner would give them a real center fielder and allow Matt Carpenter to move into a run-producing lineup spot — did you know Carpenter hit 28 homers in 2015 after hitting 25 total from 2011-14? Like I said, Cardinals Devil Magic™ — plus they have some young arms to spare. Gardner for Cooney or Gonzales could be a thing. A Fit? Yes.

San Francisco Giants
Outfielders? Angel Pagan, Hunter Pence, Gregor Blanco.
Young Starters? No. That’s why they had to sign Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija.
Cash? Yes. They had a $173.2M payroll in 2015 and are currently at $160M right now, counting arbitration projections.

The Giants do have some young outfielders they could try in left field, specifically Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker, but I can’t imagine they’d commit $220M to Cueto and Samardzija only to cheap out on the outfield. Pagan is declining and has missed a lot of time to injuries in recent years. They can’t count on him to contribute much.

Gardner fits their roster perfectly as the everyday left fielder, part-time center fielder, and leadoff hitter. They can also afford his salary, it appears. (They’re shedding Pagan’s contract next offseason too.) They just don’t have any young pitching to offer, and no, Chris Heston doesn’t count. I explained why in last week’s mailbag. The Giants didn’t sign Cueto and Samardzija because they had nothing better to do. They needed pitching in a big way. A Fit? Maybe.

Washington Nationals
Outfielders? Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Michael Taylor.
Young Starters? A few. Joe Ross and A.J. Cole are the most notable.
Cash? Yep. They reportedly offered Heyward $200M.

The Nationals are in a weird place. They had a very disappointing 2015 season, then lost several key players to free agency, yet they’re still in position to contend in 2016. Harper, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Max Scherzer is a pretty strong core. They do need help though, especially with Werth and Ryan Zimmerman showing their age.

Gardner would step in to replace Denard Span as the center fielder and leadoff hitter, two obvious needs for Washington. The Nationals also have some young pitching to offer — Ross and Cole are the most notable (here’s my Scouting The Market post on Ross), but I guess Tanner Roark counts too — money to spend and incentive to win. Last year’s performance was embarrassing and they want to turn things around in a hurry. These two teams seem to match up awfully well for a trade. Whether they can agree to the particulars is another matter, but the puzzle pieces fit. A Fit? Yes.

* * *

So after all of that, I count three yeses (Angels, Cardinals, Nationals), two nos (D’Backs, Orioles), and five maybes (Cubs, Indians, Tigers, Royals, Giants). In the case of the Cubs, I think it’s worth noting Cashman and Theo Epstein are both pretty smart dudes with a willingness to be creative, so I wouldn’t rule out a three-team trade that sends Gardner to the Cubs and a young pitcher from the third team to the Yankees.

For now, it appears there are several possible suitors for Gardner, though I’m not really sure whether time is on the Yankees’ side. On one hand, if they hang onto him until after the top free agent outfielders sign, teams won’t have anywhere else to turn for outfield help. On the other hand, once the top free agents are off the board, there might not be any teams looking for outfield help. Quite the pickle, that is. The Yankees say they’re not shopping Gardner, but my guess is they would move him quickly if the right offer comes along. These ten teams stood out as the best possible suitors.

Yankees send Brendan Ryan to Cubs to complete Starlin Castro trade

December 17, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

Earlier today the Yankees sent Brendan Ryan to the Cubs as the player to be named later in last week’s Starlin Castro trade, both teams announced. This was totally expected. It was an open secret Ryan would be part of the trade, but the Yankees held on to him for a few extra days as a courtesy while the Cubbies sorted through some 40-man roster issues.

Ryan, 33, hit .201/.244/.271 (40 wRC+) with one homer in 289 plate appearances and 113 games for the Yankees after coming over in a September 2013 cash trade with the Mariners. Yes, he actually hit a home run in pinstripes. Here’s the video evidence:

Although he was primarily the backup middle infielder, the Yankees used Ryan at all four infield positions as well as right field over the past two seasons and one month. He even threw two shutout innings in a blowout loss this past season. Ryan exercised his $1M player option after the season.

The Yankees now have 38 players on the 40-man roster. They also have an open bench spot, and if they’re truly willing to use Castro as the backup third baseman, that spot can go to any type of player. If not — Castro hasn’t played third since rookie ball — they’ll need a backup third baseman.