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The Yanks have spoken to the A’s and Reds about Sonny Gray and it seems a trade could happen soon

November 19, 2018 by Mike

The 2018-19 offseason is still very young and we’re all still waiting to see how the Yankees will replace Didi Gregorius and upgrade their rotation. How they’ll do it, we don’t know. It’s still a mystery and that’s part of the fun. There is one part of the offseason that is not a mystery, however: Sonny Gray’s future. He’s getting traded. Brian Cashman couldn’t have made it any clearer.

“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” said Cashman to Joel Sherman earlier this month. “There are enough teams that think highly enough of him … He is not a buy-low guy. All the data says he is not. He’ll be a good pitcher wherever he goes.”

Despite what Cashman said, Gray is a buy-low guy — a pitcher with Sonny’s resume coming off a bad year is the quintessential buy-low guy — and Jon Morosi reports the Athletics and Reds are trying to buy-low on him. The Yankees have spoken to both Oakland and Cincinnati about Sonny. Andy Martino adds there are “multiple offers” on the table and Cashman & Co. are currently sifting through them. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. Does this pass the sniff test? Yeah, it does. When you first hear a rumor, it’s always good to take a step back and ask whether it makes sense, and this does. The A’s desperately need rotation help. They didn’t have anyone to start the Wild Card Game and, with Trevor Cahill a free agent and Sean Manaea likely to miss next season following shoulder surgery, their rotation depth chart looks like this:

Mike Fiers
Daniel Mengden
Frankie Montas
Chris Bassitt
Andrew Triggs

Yup, the A’s need rotation help. They’re not winning a free agent bidding war for Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel and they’re probably not going to empty the farm system for James Paxton or Corey Kluber. Gray might be their best hope to acquire a potential impact starter. Oakland certainly knows Sonny and I’ve heard they asked about him at the trade deadline, but the Yankees weren’t ready to move on. There’s a fit now. Definitely.

As for the Reds, they don’t seem to make sense as a trade partner on the surface. The A’s won 97 games this past season and could contend next year. The Reds lost 95 games this past season and aren’t a move or two away from making a run at the NL Central title. Trading for one year of Sonny Gray doesn’t seem to fit the long-term plan, but GM Dick Williams recently said he wants to add two pitchers and he’s ready to be aggressive.

“I think we need to add two pitchers,” said Williams during a recent radio interview according to Bobby Nightengale. “I think this year we feel like we need to be a little more aggressive than (sitting back and waiting for bargains late in the offseason). By no means does it mean you can make sure you get a deal done but you have to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.”

The Reds definitely need rotation help and they may see Gray as an opportunity to add a just turned 29-year-old with upside that they may be able to sign long-term. Also, their new pitching coach Derek Johnson was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. Johnson left the Brewers for the Reds a few weeks ago, so there’s a connection there. The Reds have some added insight into Gray. Trading for one year of Gray may seem weird, but it’s not the craziest thing in the world.

2. Tomorrow may be a “soft” deadline. Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees have two open 40-man spots right now and no significant prospects to protect. Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams, and Stephen Tarpley were added to the 40-man during the season. Erik Swanson, Kyle Holder, and Nick Green are the notables who could be protected tomorrow. Maybe there will be a surprise a la Jonathan Loaisiga last year.

If the Yankees need to clear 40-man space tomorrow I imagine Ben Heller, Hanser Alberto, and Kyle Higashioka are most at risk of losing their spots. The Yankees could also kill two birds with one stone with Gray. He’s getting traded at some point, we know that, and trading him before the roster deadline tomorrow gets the trade out of the way and also clears a 40-man roster spot for someone else. See? Nice and easy.

Except it’s probably not that simple. There’s a decent chance the Yankees will get a 40-man roster player back in the inevitable Gray trade, so it’s hardly a lock a trade opens a roster spot. The Yankees have to get the best talent back regardless of roster status. They shouldn’t take non-40-man roster players in return just to make the 40-man situation easier. Trading Sonny won’t necessary open a 40-man spot.

That said, it takes two to tango, and the teams that want Gray may have some players on the 40-man roster bubble they want to move. It could be a player they’re considering cutting to clear a 40-man spot or a player not on the 40-man who is Rule 5 Draft eligible. Did you catch the Aledmys Diaz trade over the weekend? The Blue Jays sent Diaz to the Astros for a Rule 5 Draft eligible pitching prospect Houston was probably going to leave exposed. Something like that could play into the Gray trade. We’ll see.

3. The non-tender deadline probably doesn’t matter. Gray is projected to make $9.1M in 2019 and that’s a lot. More than I expected given his $6.5M salary in 2018. He has his career accomplishments to thank for that projected raise, not his 2018 performance. The non-tender deadline is next Friday, November 30th, and I suppose it’s possible the Yankees could non-tender Gray if they’re worried about getting stuck with his salary next year. That salary could create some headaches if they want to stay under the $206M luxury tax threshold.

I don’t think that’s going to happen though. There seems to be enough trade interest in Sonny right now that, even if the Yankees don’t get a deal worked out by next Friday, they could hang on to Gray and feel confident in getting a trade done later in the offseason. Serious non-tender candidates rarely draw trade interest because teams know they can wait and scoop them up as free agents. That’s not the case with Gray. There’s real interest from multiple teams. Tomorrow’s 40-man roster deadline could push things along. I don’t think the non-tender deadline will. Sonny’s not getting non-tendered.

4. Hooray for a bidding war! The more teams involved, the better. Gray’s value isn’t sky high but I do think he’ll fetch a better return than you might think given his terrible season. He’s young, he’s healthy, he has a strong track record, and he pitched much better away from Yankee Stadium in 2018. The Reds and A’s are interested and I reckon other teams are as well. The more teams with interest, the better it is for the Yankees. It can help drive up the price.

What do the A’s and Reds have to offer, specifically? I’ve had a few people ask me about Gray for Scooter Gennett and I just can’t see that. Surely the Reds could do better than one year of a reclamation project starter for their All-Star second baseman, right? Cincinnati has some interesting bullpen arms (Amir Garrett, Cody Reed) who could fit. I’m not sure Oakland has any MLB players to entice the Yankees. That might have to be a Gray for prospects deal. Point is, at least two teams are involved, so there’s something of a bidding war. That is nothing but good news for the Yankees.

Sorting through possible trade partners for Sonny Gray

October 24, 2018 by Mike

Once the offseason really gets going in a few weeks, we’ll all focus on who the Yankees will add over the winter. Manny Machado? Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Mystery players? Brian Cashman has said the rotation will be the “focus point” this winter and that is no surprise given the state of the starting staff. The Yankees also need to figure out left field, the infield without Didi Gregorius, and also reinforce the bullpen.

While we understandably spend an unhealthy about of time looking at who the Yankees could acquire this winter, we also have to remember the Yankees are trying to subtract a player as well. That player: Sonny Gray. Gray has been a colossal disappointment in pinstripes (4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP in 195.2 innings) and Cashman Has made it clear the Yankees will look to trade Gray this winter. He was unusually candid at his end-of-season press conference.

“It hasn’t worked out thus far,” said Cashman at that press conference. “I think he’s extremely talented. We’ll enter the winter, unfortunately, open-minded to a relocation. To maximize his abilities, it would be more likely best somewhere else. If I do find a match, you’re gonna see what we had hoped to see here … Someone, if they trade for him, is gonna get the player we wanted. I fully expect that.”

Cashman made a point of saying he won’t give Gray away — what’s he supposed to say? — but, clearly, the Yankees want to move him. Usually in these cases the GM says it’s up to the team to help the player figure it out. Cashman skipped that entirely. Having listened to Cashman and Aaron Boone and Larry Rothschild all season, I sense a lot of frustration here, and the Yankees are ready to move on. I’m not surprised.

As a 28-year-old starting pitcher with a good track record — even after last season, Sonny has a 3.66 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 900.2 big league innings — and a relatively low salary (projected $9.1M in 2019), I get the feeling the Yankees will have no trouble finding potential trade partners for Gray. And remember, he was great outside Yankee Stadium this year (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP). Teams will notice. If Sonny were on any other team, wouldn’t we look at him as a possible buy-low candidate? Sure we would. That’s how other teams see him.

With the caveat that things can be unpredictable in the offseason, I’ve singled out several clubs who appear to be possible trade suitors for Gray. Even though he’ll be a free agent next offseason, I don’t think Gray’s market is limited to contending teams. A rebuilding club could be looking at him as a buy-low candidate they could flip for more at the trade deadline, or sign long-term. The Reds traded for Matt Harvey, right? Same idea. Let’s dive in. (Reminder: My trade proposal sucks.)

Chicago White Sox

Why would they want Gray? The rebuild hit a bump in the road this season. Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson didn’t take that step forward, Lucas Giolito went backwards, and Michael Kopech went down with Tommy John surgery. The ChiSox are always looking to acquire high-end talent though — they reportedly made a run at Machado at the deadline — and Don Cooper is a highly regarded pitching coach with a history of fixing pitchers. Getting Sonny on the cheap and seeing whether he can be a viable long-term rotation piece could interest the White Sox.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Carson Fulmer? Eh, that’s one headache for another. Fulmer hasn’t even pitched well in Triple-A. The only thing he has going for him right now is the fading “eighth overall pick in 2015” shine. Unless a deal gets expanded, the return here would most likely be a prospect(s). Not sure there’s a Gray for big leaguer trade that makes sense, not unless the ChiSox are willing to sell super low on Giolito, which kinda defeats the purpose.

Cincinnati Reds

Why would they want Gray? Again, they traded for Harvey, right? The Reds took a flier on a talented pitcher to see whether he could be a long-term option. A no-risk move that didn’t cost them anything. Cincinnati desperately needs pitching help and taking a chance on Gray the same way they took a chance on Harvey could be a worthwhile endeavor. From their perspective, it’s all about cost.

Who could they send the Yankees? One year of Gray for one year of Scooter Gennett? The Yankees would do that in a heartbeat and the Reds would assuredly want more, and hey, maybe that’s a gap the two teams can bridge. The Reds have a lot of young pitchers who’ve stalled out at the MLB level (Cody Reed, Amir Garrett) and the Yankees could try to pry one (or two) of them loose in hopes of adding a long-term piece. Reclamation project for reclamation project, basically.

Houston Astros

Why would they want Gray? The Astros could lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency this offseason, and while they have some in-house rotation options (Josh James, Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock), they could pursue outside help. Sonny still has excellent spin rates across the board and Houston may see him as a good low-cost, high-upside candidate for their pitching lab. Keep in mind the Astros pursued Gray at the 2017 trade deadline as well. They’ve had interest in him before.

Who could they send the Yankees? Despite being a World Series contender, Houston has not been shy about trading players off their MLB roster, though they’ve been spare parts (Joe Musgrove) and out-of-favor guys (Ken Giles). The Yankees could push something like one year of Gray for one year of Peacock or one year of McHugh. Peacock was quite good as a starter last season before shifting to the bullpen this year and eventually being left off the postseason roster. Gray for Peacock? That seems like it could be a potential win-win or a potential lopsided deal for either team.

Los Angeles Angels

Why would they want Gray? Pretty simple, really. Mike Trout is two years from free agency, so the Angels aren’t about to rebuild, and they need rotation help. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are a good enough rotation top two. Getting a guy like Gray to slot in behind Heaney and Skaggs and ahead of dudes like Felix Pena, Jaime Barria, and Nick Tropeano makes sense for the Angels. Get Sonny out of New York and into a more pitcher friendly ballpark.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Kole Calhoun? It’s a one-year commitment for each and the money is close to a wash, plus the Angels wouldn’t have much trouble finding a replacement corner outfielder in free agency. Calhoun’s a lefty bat and a very good defender who would slot in nicely in left field. He just stopped hitting though. Calhoun went from a 117 wRC+ in 2016 to a 98 wRC+ in 2017 to a 79 wRC+ in 2018. Eh. Put Gray in a more pitcher friendly ballpark and Calhoun in a more hitter friendly ballpark and maybe it works out for both teams?

Milwaukee Brewers

Why would they want Gray? I still think the Brewers are the best landing spot for Gray. They need rotation help and their pitching coach, Derek Johnson, was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. The two are close. It’s a fit. Milwaukee has done a real nice job accumulating talent under GM David Stearns and Gray seems right up their alley as an upside play.

Who could they send the Yankees? Two names jumped to mind: Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Anderson was great in 2017 (2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP) and not so great in 2018 (3.93 ERA and 5.22 FIP), so much so that he was left off the postseason roster. He is guaranteed $6.5M next year with affordable options for 2020 and 2021. I’m not sure the Brewers are ready to give up on him yet. They’re trying to add pitching, not subtract it. Besides, bringing a dude who gave up 30 homers in 158 innings this season into Yankee Stadium might not work out too well.

As for Thames, remember his huge April last year? Well, his performance has cratered since, and he hit .219/.306/.478 (105 wRC+) this year. Jesus Aguilar jumped him on the first base depth chart. Ryan Braun has also played some first base, so Thames is probably third on their first base depth chart. He wasn’t even on the Brewers postseason roster. Thames has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract ($7M) and Gray for Thames gives the Brewers a starter and the Yankees a lefty power bat they could plug in at first base or DH or, in an emergency, the outfield. Hmmm.

UPDATE: I should’ve mentioned Jonathan Schoop here as well, given that he’s a free agent next winter who is projected to make similar money as Gray. I just assumed the Brewers are not ready to flip him after trading some pretty good prospects to get him at the deadline. Schoop’s someone to keep in mind though.

Oakland Athletics

Why would they want Gray? I’ve heard through the grapevine that the A’s checked in on Gray at this year’s trade deadline. They really need starting pitching — they didn’t have anyone to start in the Wild Card Game! — and they know Sonny as well as anyone. The Athletics do have a history of trading for pricey veteran players one year before free agency (Jim Johnson and Luke Gregerson jump to mind) and again, they know Gray. They showed interest at the deadline and may look to bring him back to Oakland again this winter.

Who could they send the Yankees? Reverse the trade! Gray for James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Dustin Fowler! Nah, not happening. This trade has no winners right now. Mateo stunk this year, Kaprielian still hasn’t returned to game action following Tommy John surgery in April 2017, and Fowler struggled in MLB this year and was passed by Ramon Laureano on the center field depth chart. I don’t see an obvious big leaguer for big leaguer trade match here. It would have to be a prospect(s) that come back to New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Why would they want Gray? This is a long shot, I think. The Pirates traded Gerrit Cole last year because they were worried they couldn’t sign him long-term. Would they then turn around and trade for Gray when he could leave next year? I mean, sure, it’s possible, and they do need someone to slot alongside Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, and Trevor Williams in the rotation. Money might be the issue here. Pittsburgh operates on a strict budget and Gray may not fit.

Who could they send the Yankees? Hey, if Gray signs at his MLBTR projected salary, he and Nova would be a wash financially. The Pirates aren’t doing that though. Besides, I’ve seen enough Ivan Nova for one lifetime. He’s been the same old Ivan Nova the last two years (98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP) after his stellar eleven-start cameo with Pittsburgh in 2016. Would the Pirates do Gray for Corey Dickerson? The Yankees could slot Dickerson in at left field and DH and he’d give them a good lefty bat. Seems unlikely. I don’t see a good big leaguer for big leaguer trade. A prospect(s) trade it would have to be.

San Diego Padres

Why would they want Gray? The Padres are my sleeper team. They have no money on the books long-term other than Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and their farm system is incredible. One of the best I’ve ever seen. They are very well-positioned to take a chance on Gray, see what he does next season, then pay to keep him if he’s a fit. San Diego reportedly tried to land Noah Syndergaard at the deadline. They’re looking for pitching. Gray’s no Syndergaard, but he could be really good, and the Padres are the perfect team to roll the dice.

Who could they send the Yankees? I thought about Cory Spangenberg. He’ll never live up to hype associated with being the tenth overall pick in 2011, but he’s a lefty bat who can play the three non-first base infield positions and also left field. The downside is Spangenberg has only hit .252/.318/.385 (88 wRC+) with a 29.0% strikeout rate in 815 plate appearances the last two years. He has two years of control remaining and perhaps the Yankees will see him as a poor man’s Didi Gregorius/Aaron Hicks. The talented player who hasn’t put together yet. I dunno. Aside from prospects, there’s no much on San Diego’s roster that excites me.

San Francisco Giants

Why would they want Gray? San Francisco’s interest in Gray depends entirely on their long-term plan. They’re hiring a new baseball operations head this winter and, if they decide to rebuild, forget it. No reason to bring in Gray. If they decide to go for it next year while Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey (and Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt) are in their primes, then the Giants could definitely be a team to watch for Gray. Their rotation is pretty sketchy with Jeff Samardzija crashing and Johnny Cueto having Tommy John surgery.

Who could they send the Yankees? In last week’s mailbag I looked at Joe Panik and Tony Watson. I can’t see the Giants trading Watson for Gray for two reasons. One, they could get more for him elsewhere. And two, if they trade for Gray, it’s because they want to win in 2019, and trading Watson hurts that cause. As for Panik, that seems more reasonable. Both he and Gray are reclamation projects at this point and San Francisco has some others they could plug in at second base. The Yankees have liked Panik in the past and they could bring him aboard as their second baseman (with Gleyber Torres shifting to shortstop) until Gregorius returns. Other than Panik and Watson, I don’t see another fit with the Giants. Their big league roster is thin and their farm system is weak.

Seattle Mariners

Why would they want Gray? Depending who you ask, the Mariners have either seven viable big league starters (Roenis Elias, Marco Gonzales, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, Wade LeBlanc, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez) or three viable big league starters (Gonzales, Leake, Paxton). Felix has crashed hard the last few years and Elias, LeBlanc, and Ramirez are journeymen. If Gray leaves New York and pitches like he did earlier in his career, he’d be the second best starter in Seattle’s rotation, hands down. The window is closing and GM Jerry Dipoto has made it clear he’s going to do all he can to win before it slams shut.

Who could they send the Yankees? Geez, I have no idea. Their farm system is barren and their best big leaguers with short-term control are Felix (nope), Denard Span (eh), Juan Nicasio (nope), and Nick Vincent (nope). I’m sure we could cobble together an acceptable trade package if we tried hard enough. Nothing jumps out to me though.

Washington Nationals

Why would they want Gray? As bad as they were this year (82-80), the Nationals remain a win-now team. They still have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Victor Robles even if Bryce Harper leaves. Pretty good core! The Nationals could absolutely contend next season in the blob of mediocrity that is the National League. Washington has Scherzer, Strasburg, Tanner Roark, and maybe Joe Ross in their rotation. There is definitely room for Gray.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Adam Eaton? The money is close to a wash and the Nationals could still move forward with a Soto-Robles-Michael Taylor/free agent outfield should Harper not return. Knee and ankle injuries have limited Eaton to 118 games the last two seasons, but, when healthy, he’s hit .300/.394/.422 (123 wRC+). That’s really good! The downside is the leg injuries have sapped his defensive and baserunning value. As a stopgap left fielder, Eaton could work real nice. Would the Nationals really trade such a high on-base leadoff hitter if they’re trying to win though? I don’t see any other players on their big league roster that make sense.

* * *

Cashman is not an idiot. He was so open about trading Gray because he knows there’s interest and he won’t have any trouble drumming up potential trade partners. If he were worried at all about his trade leverage, he would’ve said the Yankees plan to keep Gray and get him right. That’s not what happened. In all likelihood multiple teams will be involved and the Yankees will benefit from a bidding war.

That doesn’t mean they’re going to walk away with a great package, of course. At the end of the day, Sonny is still coming off a terrible season and he’s still only under control one more season. His trade value is not sky high. It’s not nil though. I get the feeling we’re in for a lot of Sonny Gray rumors this winter, and, when it’s all said and done, the Yankees are going to end up with more than you’d expect for a dude coming off a replacement level season.

2018 Trade Deadline Rumors: Tuesday

July 31, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

A lefty bat worth squeezing between Judge and Stanton. (Rob Carr/Getty)

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is 4pm ET today and wow have the Yankees been busy. The busiest team in baseball over the last week or so, right? Feels like it. The Yankees have completed six trades in the last six days, some more impactful than others. A recap:

Dillon Tate, Josh Rogers, and Cody Carroll for Zach Britton. (RAB post)
Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney for J.A. Happ. (RAB post)
Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos for Luke Voit and $1M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Caleb Frare for $1.5M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Adam Warren for $1.25M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo for Lance Lynn. (RAB post)

Eleven players out, four players and $3.75M worth of international bonus money in. Know what the crazy thing is? I am not at all convinced the Yankees are done. They could still use another outfielder (because Aaron Judge is hurt) as well as a catcher (because Gary Sanchez is hurt). Plus more pitching. I’d rather have too much than not enough.

We’re once again going to keep track of the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here, so make sure you check back for updates. The Yankees have made so many moves already that I can’t promise many rumors today, they might in fact be done, but I am open to being surprised. Chat about all the day’s trade deadline rumors and activity here.

2:28pm ET: The Yankees will not be getting Cameron Maybin. He’s been traded to the Mariners. The Yankees reportedly remain in the hunt for a right-handed outfield bat, however.
11:10am ET: The Yankees want a right-handed outfield bat to help cover for Judge, though they were not in on Tommy Pham, who was traded to the Rays. They want someone comfortable with a bench role. [Joel Sherman]
10:49am ET: The Yankees have “zero interest” in Matt Harvey, and that was even before the Happ and Lynn trades. Not surprised. I couldn’t see the Yankees bringing him back to New York, especially since there’s little reason to believe he can pitch well in Yankee Stadium. [Andy Martino]
10:36am ET: You can stop fantasizing about Harper now. “Bryce is not going anywhere. I believe in this team,” said Nationals GM Mike Rizzo this morning. [Chelsea Janes]
10:21am ET: The Yankees have discussed Brad Ziegler with the Marlins. Unless there would be another deal coming a la Warren/Lynn, I’m not sure where he fits. Maybe they’re trying to drive up the price for the Red Sox, who have been connected to Ziegler. [Feinsand]
10:20am ET: The Yankees are expected to add an outfielder today. Expecting to add an outfielder and actually adding an outfielder are two different things though. [Ken Rosenthal, Feinsand]
10:09am ET: The Yankees have spoken to the Mets about Jose Bautista. The Mets don’t want to give him away though, plus the chances of a Yankees-Mets trade are always small. [Heyman]
9:30am ET: In case you missed it last night, the Nationals have made Bryce Harper available. The Yankees haven’t checked in as far as we know, but still, this is pretty noteworthy. [Mark Feinsand]
9:30am ET: The Yankees are among the teams with interest in impending free agent Andrew McCutchen. The Giants insist they’re not ready to sell even though they’ve fallen out of the race. McCutchen is definitely someone who could be on the move in August. [Jon Morosi]
9:30am ET: The Yankees have also checked in on Curtis Granderson and Cameron Maybin, so they’re casting a wide net for an outfielder in the wake of Judge’s injury. I’d be all for a Granderson reunion. The R2C2 podcast episode alone would make it worth it. [Morosi, Jon Heyman]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Eovaldi, Hand, Moustakas, D’Backs

July 10, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Nasty Nate in your area. (Rich Schultz/Getty)

We are now three weeks away from the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline and the Manny Machado rumors have arrived. It feels like a foregone conclusion the Yankees will do something before the deadline. I’m not sure what, exactly, but I’d bet on adding a starting pitcher. Anyway, here’s the latest batch of trade deadline rumors.

Yankees scouting Eovaldi

The Yankees were among the teams with a scout on hand for Nathan Eovaldi’s most recent start, reports Marc Topkin. Eovaldi took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Mets on Sunday and finished the afternoon with one hit allowed in seven shutout innings. He struck out nine. On one hand, that’s undeniably excellent. On the other hand, it was the Mets, so yeah.

Eovaldi, now 28, has a 3.35 ERA (4.16 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.3%), walk (3.3%), and ground ball (48.8%) rates in eight starts and 48.1 innings back from his second Tommy John surgery. He’s on a cheap ($2M) one-year contract and it is all but certain the Rays will trade him before the deadline. Tampa has Eovaldi using his cutter more, which could explain his effectiveness. The Yankees know Eovaldi well, if nothing else. He’s worth a longer look outside a rumor roundup setting. Stay tuned.

Yankees interested in Hand

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are among the teams with interest in lefty reliever Brad Hand. Hand is signed affordably through 2020 with a $10M club option for 2021. The Yankees have a very strong and deep bullpen already, but there’s always room for another quality reliever. Swap out Chasen Shreve for Hand and the bullpen would be even better.

Hand is probably the top reliever on the trade market right now and the price tag figures to be very high given his performance and contract. He’s not too dissimilar from Andrew Miller circa 2016. The Yankees had interest in him at last year’s deadline and adding another reliever does make some sense. Adding Hand won’t solve the rotation issues but he would make the Yankees better, and that’s the name of the game, getting better. Especially in a division race this tight.

Yankees, Blue Jays still discussing Happ

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees and Blue Jays are “continuing conversations” about left-hander J.A. Happ. The two sides are said to be “haggling over the price tag.” I guess the Yankees have not been scared away by Happ’s recent performance. It’s not just his dud against the Yankees over the weekend. In his last four starts Happ has allowed 20 runs and 38 baserunners (and six homers) in 22.2 innings. He has a 4.44 ERA (3.97 FIP) for the season.

The Yankees are not prone to small sample size (over)reactions. They’re a big picture organization. That doesn’t mean they’ll ignore Happ’s recent struggles, but if they’re comfortable with the medicals and their scouts and analytical folks think this is just a bump in the road, they could pursue Happ anyway. The trade deadline pitching options don’t look all that appealing right now. Happ, even with his recent struggles, may be the best bet the rest of the season. I’m not surprised the Yankees are still involved.

Yankees considering Moustakas for first base

Just put anyone at first base how hard could it be. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

The Yankees are considering longtime Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas for first base, reports Jon Morosi. This sounds more like an idea the Yankees are kicking around rather than a “the two teams are talking” rumor. Moustakas has played a handful of games at first base this year — he’d never played a position other than third prior to this season — and he’s on a cheap ($6.5M) contract.

Greg Bird is maybe kinda sorta starting to hit a bit — he is 7-for-29 (.241) with five walks (.371 OBP) in his last eight games and his at-bats have been much better — but he’s still hitting an underwhelming .203/.324/.398 (100 wRC+) overall. Moustakas is hitting a slightly better .251/.308/.464 (106 wRC+) overall, including .207/.270/.393 (77 wRC+) since the day Bird made his season debut. Plus he hasn’t played much first base at all. Like I’ve been saying, if Bird isn’t hitting by the All-Star break, go get a first baseman. An actual first baseman, preferably.

D’Backs, Rangers, Phillies scouting Yankees

The Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Phillies all had scouts watching Triple-A Scranton over the weekend, reports George King. The Reds and Royals continue to scout the Yankees as well. Most of the RailRiders’ best players (Brandon Drury, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade) were in the big leagues at the time, but Billy McKinney is still down there, and over the weekend pitching prospects Justus Sheffield, Josh Rogers, and Chance Adams all started for Scranton.

The Rangers stink and are going to trade Cole Hamels before the trade deadline, so it makes sense that they’ve got eyes on the Yankees. What about the D’Backs and Phillies? They’re contenders! They’re not just contenders, they’re in first place! I suppose Arizona could be doing due diligence in case they collapse and decide to trade Patrick Corbin? Unless the Phillies make a young starter like Nick Pivetta or Zach Eflin (or Aaron Nola!) available, I’m not sure they match up well with the Yankees for a trade.

Trade Deadline Notes: Harvey, Happ, Ross, Royals, Tigers

July 7, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Later today the Yankees and Blue Jays will continue their three-game weekend series with the middle game. That’s a 4:07pm ET start. Here are some trade deadline notes to check out in the meantime.

Harvey “not high” on Yankees’ list

The kinda maybe possibly good again Matt Harvey is “not high” on the Yankees’ list of trade targets, reports Jon Heyman. Heyman says that, among other things, the Yankees are worried about a “potential circus” that would follow Harvey’s return to New York. Yeah, it sure would create a media frenzy. That’s for sure. I’m sure the Yankees would happily live with the headache if Harvey were still a no-doubt ace, but that is no longer the case.

Harvey owns a 4.91 ERA (4.67 FIP) in 80.2 total innings this season, though he’s been better since being traded to the Reds, pitching to a 3.86 ERA (4.20 FIP) in 53.2 innings. He’s been especially good the last three times out, allowing only three runs with a 14/2 K/BB in 18.1 innings against contending teams (Cubs, Braves, Brewers). Jay Jaffe had a good breakdown of Harvey’s revival. Strip away the name and I don’t think the current version of Harvey generates much buzz as a trade candidate. Meh.

Yankees are “main player” for Happ

According to Heyman, the Yankees are a “main player” for J.A. Happ and he’s either at or near the top of their deadline shopping list. The Brewers and Mariners are said to have interest as well, and I’m sure other teams will enter the mix before the trade deadline. The Yankees will get (another) firsthand look at Happ later this afternoon, when he takes the mound at Rogers Centre in the middle game of this three-game series.

The 35-year-old Happ is sitting on a 4.03 ERA (3.64 FIP) after getting clobbered for seven runs in 5.2 innings against the Tigers last time out. Prior to that he had a more palatable 3.62 ERA (3.58 FIP) in 97 innings. I think Happ is the best available rental in a pretty crummy market. A quality southpaw who is familiar with the AL East would be a welcome addition to the rotation. The trade that sent Scott Kazmir from the Athletics to the Astros in 2015 seems like a decent trade benchmark. The A’s landed two top 20 organizational prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) in that deal.

Yankees don’t have much interest in Ross

The Yankees do not have as much interest in Tyson Ross as they do other trade targets like Happ and Michael Fulmer, reports Lindsey Alder (subs. req’d). The 31-year-old Ross is on a dirt cheap one-year contract with the last place Padres and chances are he’ll be traded before the deadline. San Diego would be silly to keep him when they could turn him into a prospect or two. Rebuilding teams sign reclamation projects like Ross specifically so they can flip them for prospects.

So far this season Ross has a 3.78 ERA (4.31 FIP) in exactly 100 innings, though, like Happ, his last start was disaster (seven runs in five innings). Prior to that Ross had a 3.32 ERA (3.87 FIP) in 95 innings. His strikeout (21.4%) and ground ball (43.8%) rates aren’t nearly as good as they were before his 2016-17 arm problems. I see Ross as more of a secondary target a la Jaime Garcia last year. Someone to add for depth. Not someone you’re counting on to really make a difference, you know?

Reds, Tigers, Royals all scouting Yankees

The Reds, Tigers, and Royals have all been scouting the Yankees in recent weeks, according to George King. The Royals had a scout on hand Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday at Yankee Stadium while Reds had someone in the Bronx on Monday and Tuesday. Kansas City has also been scouting Double-A Trenton. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been covering the farm system thoroughly. Undoubtedly other teams are scouting the system as well.

I think it’s safe to assume the Tigers are doing their due diligence in advance of a potential Fulmer trade. The Reds have Harvey and Raisel Iglesias — would they move Luis Castillo? — while the Royals have Danny Duffy and Mike Moustakas, who I supposed could play first base. It might seem like a stretch that the Yankees would trade an MLB roster player(s) for any of those guys, but Jonathan Loaisiga started Monday and Domingo German started Tuesday. I don’t think the Yankees would make either off-limits. I’m not saying they should trade them. But they would in the right deal, for sure.

Scouting the Trade Market: The Cincinnati Reds

January 8, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The Reds are entering their third full season of rebuilding in 2018, a course of action that began in earnest when they dealt Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake at the 2015 trade deadline. Over the next year they sent Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips packing, allowing the youth movement to begin. They still have a significant amount of work to do, though, with needs all over the field. And with stud third-base prospect Nick Senzel knocking on the door, they may be best-served dealing from their modest infield stockpile to fill some of those needs.

Let’s take a look, shall we?

Scooter Gennett

Scooter Gennett briefly became a household name on June 6, 2017, when he hit four home runs in a game against the St. Louis Cardinals:

He was just the 17th player in MLB history to go deep four times in a game, and he may have been the unlikeliest of any of the players who did so (well, him or Pat Seerey). Heading into that game, Gennett was a career .279/.317/.422 hitter, with 38 home runs in 1637 AB (a rate of one home run per 43.1 AB); and it isn’t as though he showed power in the minors either, as he had 28 HR in 1986 MiLB AB. But I digress.

Gennett, who was picked-up by the Reds on waivers just days before the season began, was hitting a respectable .270/.308/.450 (95 wRC+) before making his way into history – and that’s not too far removed from his career norms when adjusted a bit for the juiced ball. That historical day presaged bigger things for him, though, as he hit .293/.344/.516 (121 wRC+) with 20 HR in 345 AB from June 7 forward. All told, he hit .295/.342/.531 (124 wRC+) with 27 HR on the season. And this, in just 497 PA.

Is there something to the breakout beyond the juiced ball? Maybe. Prior to that fateful day, Gennett hit 33.4% of his batted balls in the air, and pulled 34.3%. From June 6 forward, however, he had a 39.1% flyball rate, and a 42.5% pull rate, both of which represent sizable increases. It’s a small sample size, to be sure – but, given what we know about the flyball revolution within the game, it stands to reason that he changed his approach over time, and embraced it.

With over 2,000 PA under his belt, Gennett is a .283/.323/.446 (103 wRC+) hitter entering his age-28 season. That is weighted quite heavily by his breakout (or fluke) 2017, but he has been average-ish or better in three of his four full seasons.

Contract Status: Arbitration eligible; under team control through 2019.

Position(s): Primarily 2B (4104 innings); 3B (71 innings in 2017); LF (55 innings in 2017); RF (41.1 innings in 2017)

Is there a catch? Aside from the possibility that this is a massive fluke from a player that was waived by the Brewers in March? Yes – he’s not a very good second-baseman. He has -5.2 UZR/150 at the keystone for his career, and DRS has him at -4 per 150. He’s played other positions sparingly, so those numbers aren’t worth digging into all that much … but they’re not good, either.

Jose Peraza

Peraza was the prize of the deal that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox back in the winter of 2015, as a consensus top-100 prospect at an up the middle position (though, the precise position was still up in the air). He did well in his first season in the Reds organization, slashing .281/.333/.375 (104 wRC+) with 2 HR and 10 SB in half a season at Triple-A, and earning a call up in mid-May. Peraza batted .324/.352/.411 (103 wRC+) with 3 HR and 21 SB in 256 PA at the highest level, and seemingly secured his place in the Reds future.

Unfortunately, Peraza struggled tremendously in 2017, batting just .259/.297/.324 (62 wRC+) with 5 HR and 23 SB in his first full season in the majors. He found himself on the bench a few times in deference to Gennett and the since-departed Zack Cozart, and it’s difficult to blame the Reds for that – even if he spent most of the season as a 23-year-old. He shuffled between second and short all season, too, with better numbers at the former (6.6 UZR/150 versus -8.7). And now, with Cozart in Los Angeles, the Reds are rumored to be interested in finding a shortstop of the future.

Does this mean that Peraza has fallen out of favor? Or are the Reds trying to motivate him? It might be a bit of both. What we do know is that Peraza will turn 24 in April, and that he possesses excellent base-running skills and the ability to play both second and short (he drew praise for his defense at both, though he always seemed best-suited for second due to a middling arm).

Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; under team control through 2022.

Position(s): Split between 2B (721.2 innings) and SS (672.1 innings)

Is there a catch? Peraza has never been one for patience at the plate. His BB% was below 5% in the minors, and it has been just 3.6% in the majors. There’s a lot of upside here, but he has a lot of work to get there – and the Reds may still expect quite a bit given his age, pedigree, and moderate success in 2016.

Eugenio Suarez

A few years ago, Suarez was viewed as a slick fielding shortstop with questionable hitting ability, albeit with a shot at double-digit home runs and steals. He was traded to the Reds for Alfredo Simon prior to the 2015 season, and there were immediate signs that that wasn’t an accurate portrait of the player. He hit 13 HR in just 372 AB with the Reds in 2015, and posted a -19.3 UZR/150 and -12 DRS 841.1 innings at short. Suarez was moved to third base in 2016, and he continued to hit for power (21 HR in 565 AB), but his overall production was a bit disappointing.

And then everything seemed to click.

Suarez slashed .260/.367/.461 (117 wRC+) with 26 HR in 2017, and both UZR (5.8) and DRS (5) loved his defense at the hot corner. He was somewhat hot and cold from month-to-month, but the sum of everything was good for 4.1 fWAR. And the fact that he increased his walks dramatically (from 8.1% to 13.3%) while cutting his strikeouts a bit (from 24.7% to 23.3%) is a terrific sign.

So why is the 26-year-old even here? Simple – Suarez plays the same position as the team’s top prospect, who is close to ready for a shot, and he’s entering arbitration. Of course, there’s also a rumor that the Reds might deal him if he won’t sign an extension, which kind of cuts both ways.

Contract Status: Arbitration eligible; under team control through 2020.

Position(s): Primarily 3B (2620.2 innings)

Is there a catch? Suarez is sure to be costly. Otherwise, 2017 looks fairly repeatable, given the flashes of potential in 2015 and 2016.

The Reds are looking for shortstop help, and pitching is the organization’s biggest issue on the whole. That could make the Yankees a reasonable match in a vacuum – Thairo Estrada, Domingo Acevedo, Luis Medina, Dillon Tate, and Domingo German are all outside of the team’s top-five prospects, and could conceivably be good fits in a deal. My trade proposal sucks, though, so I won’t go much further than that.

I’m not too interested in Peraza as a reclamation project, unless he comes dirt cheap. He doesn’t fit the Yankees semi-win now mode, after all. That leaves Gennett and Suarez, both of whom I’m interested in. The flyball heavy, pull-happy, lefty-swinging Gennett could feast in Yankee Stadium, even if he regresses a bit – and I can’t imagine the Reds demanding too much, given his track record. Suarez, though, seems far safer, with more upside on both sides of the ball … and that’s why he’d undoubtedly cost a sizable return. But, if you squint, you can kind of see a poor man’s Manny Machado for significantly less in terms of talent and money.

Yankeemetrics: Bombers back in the Bronx (July 25-26)

July 27, 2017 by Katie Sharp Leave a Comment

Threes are wild
The Yankees had a successful homecoming on Tuesday as they kicked off a critical nine-game stretch in the Bronx with a win over the Reds.

Todd Frazier, wearing the traditional pinstripes for the first time, had perhaps the most unforgettable and unusual Yankee Stadium debut ever. In his first at-bat, he lined into a triple play — which would be quite memorable on its own — but turned into a statistical bonzai when Matt Holliday scored a run as Didi Gregorius got caught in a rundown for the third out.

Let’s run through some Triple Play #FunFacts:

Frazier was the 27th Yankee to hit into a triple play and the first since Russell Martin on September 27, 2011 against the Rays.
Before Tuesday, the last time the Yankees managed to win a game despite hitting into a triple play was May 29, 2000, when A’s infielder Randy Velarde turned the trick by himself, the only unassisted triple play ever recorded against the Yankees.
The play was scored 6-3-5-6 in the official boxscore, just the second triple play in MLB history with that sequence. The other was on June 6, 1970 by the Pirates against the Dodgers.
This was only the eighth time in the Live Ball era (since 1920) that a team scored on a triple play, and the first since the Mariners did it against the Twins on May 27, 2006; the Yankees had never scored on a triple play before Tuesday.

Didi redeemed himself after his triple play TOOTBLAN by driving in two runs, including his 15th home run of the season, five shy of the career-high he set last year. In the long and storied history of the franchise, Gregorius and Derek Jeter are the only shortstops with multiple 15-homer seasons.

Jordan Montgomery bounced back from his career-worst performance against the Twins last week to throw one of his best games as a major-leaguer. He took a no-hitter into the sixth inning and finished with this stellar pitching line: 6⅔ innings, one run, two hits, six strikeouts, one walk.

It was the second time Monty has pitched that deep into a game while giving up no more than two hits, as the 24-year-old became the youngest Yankee since Dave Righetti in 1981 with two such starts in a season.

Aroldis Chapman threw a scoreless ninth for his 12th save but he was hardly dominant, failing to record a strikeout for the sixth time this season. Four of those outings have come since the All-Star break, making this the first time in his career he’s had a two-week stretch with at least four zero-strikeout games.

Summer of Severino
In a throwback performance to the scoreboard-dominant days of April and May, the Yankees used their tried-and-true formula of brilliant starting pitching and pinstriped power to complete the mini-sweep of the Reds.

Luis Severino tossed another brilliant gem, going seven strong innings while allowing only two runs (both unearned) with nine strikeouts, and added to his ace-like resume:

It was the fourth time this season he’s pitched at least seven innings, gave up zero earned runs and struck out at least six batters; the only other pitchers in baseball that have done that four times this season are Max Scherzer, Chris Sale and James Paxton.
And it was the eighth time he’s lasted at least seven innings and allowed zero or one earned runs — Scherzer (8 starts) and Clayton Kershaw (11 starts) are the only guys in MLB that can match Severino in that stat.
He’s now had three starts in a row of at least seven innings and no more than one earned run, becoming just the third AL pitcher with a streak like that this season. The others: Corey Kluber and Dallas Keuchel.

Severino was in peak-dominant form, generating 20 swings-and-misses, the second-most in any start in his career. He climbed the ladder with his fastball to get four of the whiffs, but mostly buried his changeup (5) and slider (11) below the knees to make the Reds look like little-leaguers at the plate.

chart-10

Six of his nine strikeouts came with his filthy hard slider, giving him 85 on the season with that pitch, the fourth-most in baseball behind Chris Archer, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer.

Clint Frazier continued to shine on the big-league stage, as he delivered two key run-scoring hits with men on first and second in the third and fifth innings. He’s now 6-for-14 and has 10 RBIs with runners in scoring position, nearly matching the output of Jacoby Ellsbury (7-for-40, 12 RBI) in those situations for the entire season.

Didi Gregorius’ scorching-hot bat provided more fireworks on Wednesday. He went deep in the seventh inning, extending his homer streak to a career-best three games, and also etched his name alongside some Yankee legends. Didi is just the fifth shortstop in franchise history to hit a home run in back-to-back-to-back games: Derek Jeter (twice in 2012), Tom Tresh (1962), Gil McDougald (1957) and Tony Lazzeri (1927) are the others.