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Update: Yankees acquire Cameron Maybin from Indians

April 25, 2019 by Mike

2:59pm ET: The Yankees have announced the trade and it is as reported: Maybin for cash. Severino was indeed moved to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot. The Yankees added Maybin to their big league roster and he is on his way to join the team.

12:20pm ET: According to Jack Curry, the Yankees have acquired veteran outfielder Cameron Maybin from the Indians. Jon Heyman says it’s a cash trade, and George King notes the Yankees had interest in Maybin after Aaron Hicks got hurt in Spring Training. The Yankees haven’t announced the trade yet.

Maybin, 32, has a .216/.388/.275 (94 wRC+) batting line through 14 Triple-A games this year. He put up an 88 wRC+ as a fourth outfielder with various MLB teams in both 2017 and 2018, and that’s pretty much what we should expect going forward. Below-average bat, slightly above-average glove.

The Yankees have been decimated by injuries this season, especially in the outfield, so Maybin is a warm body to help get them through the next few weeks. Here is the current outfield depth chart:

Aaron Judge (out with oblique injury)
Giancarlo Stanton (out with biceps/shoulder injury)
Aaron Hicks (out with back injury)
Brett Gardner
Clint Frazier (out with ankle injury)
Mike Tauchman

Maybin gives the Yankees three actual outfielders — natural infielder Tyler Wade started in left field the last two days — so hooray for the bare minimum. The Yankees have some interleague games coming up in National League parks and there was no way they could go into those with two real outfielders.

Earlier today the Yankees put Frazier on the injured list and called up Joe Harvey, and also optioned Jonathan Loaisiga to Triple-A Scranton. Loaisiga is the move to get Maybin on the roster. I assume Luis Severino will be transferred to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Yanks sign Hutchison, lose Cole and Alberto on waivers among flurry of roster moves

January 11, 2019 by Mike

Friday was a very busy day for the Yankees. In addition to all the arbitration filing deadline activity, they also agreed to a two-year contract with DJ LeMahieu, and announced several smaller transactions as well. Here is a recap of the day’s moves:

Officially announced three-year deal with LHP Zach Britton.
RHP A.J. Cole claimed off waivers by the Indians.
IF Hanser Alberto claimed off waivers by the Orioles.
Signed RHP Drew Hutchison to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training.
Signed OF Matt Lipka to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training.

The Yankees haven’t announced the LeMahieu signing yet. That is still pending a physical and it’ll be a few days. The Britton deal is technically a three-year contract, but, functionally, it is a two-year deal with a two-year club option and a one-year player option. Two years vs. three years doesn’t change anything with regards to the luxury tax. Britton still counts as $13M against the luxury tax payroll annually.

Cole, 27, was designated for assignment last week to clear 40-man roster space for Troy Tulowitzki. I thought the Yankees might be able to trade him for cash or a player to be named later, but no luck. They lost him on waivers to the Indians for nothing. Oh well. Cole had a 4.26 ERA (4.92 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts in 38 innings for New York last season. He came over in a cash trade with the Nationals and had a few good weeks before falling apart.

Alberto was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Britton, then was claimed by the Orioles a few hours later. I thought it was kinda weird the Yankees would unload infield depth given Troy Tulowitzki’s general fragility, then a few hours later the LeMahieu news broke, and it all made sense. The Yankees claimed Alberto from the Rangers a few weeks ago. He’s a great defender but not much of a hitter. Now he’s an Oriole.

Hutchison, 28, started Opening Day for the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium only four years ago, but injuries and ineffectiveness have dogged him since. He had a 6.75 ERA (6.42 FIP) in 42.2 innings with the Rangers and Phillies last season, and a 2.14 ERA (3.29 FIP) in 42 Triple-A innings. For what it’s worth (nothing), I signed Hutchison to be Triple-A Scranton’s veteran innings guy as part of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan. Now the Yankees have done the same.

The 26-year-old Lipka is a former high draft pick (35th overall in 2010) who stalled out with the Braves. He spent last season in Double-A with the Giants and hit .240/.329/.352 (91 wRC+) with four homers and 21 steals. Lipka has a little Triple-A time and I imagine he’ll spend the coming season as the roving Double-A and Triple-A depth outfielder. He’s not a prospect anymore. Just a roster filler signing.

Hutchison and Lipka join catcher Ryan Lavarnway, infielder Gio Urshela, lefty Rex Brothers, lefty Danny Coulombe, and outfielder Billy Burns as minor league contract depth pickups this winter. You never know with these things, but that might be it for the non-roster signings. If nothing else, the Yankees have addressed all Triple-A Scranton’s roster needs.

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Thursday

December 13, 2018 by Mike

Come on Yankees please. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

The final day of the 2018 Winter Meetings has arrived. These last few days have been pretty boring, huh? There haven’t been any blockbusters and even the rumors have been slow by Winter Meetings standards. (Please trade J.T. Realmuto already. I’m sick of hearing about him.) I guess that’s what happens when half the league is rebuilding and the other half decided to get under the luxury tax threshold at the same time in what was surely one big coincidence (wink wink nudge nudge).

As for the Yankees, they agreed to re-sign lefty J.A. Happ yesterday following a quick tryst with Noah Syndergaard earlier in the week. Happ gets two years and $34M or so with a vesting option. I can live with it. Aside from that, we’ve heard the Yankees connected to guys like Freddy Galvis, Adam Ottavino, and Zach Britton as they look to bolster their bullpen and replace the injured Didi Gregorius. Bullpen help and an infielder are the top priorities now.

“We try to promote we are a progressive, open-minded operation, that every day is different and that we are prepared to pivot and react at any moment,” said Cashman to Bryan Hoch. “If something doesn’t make sense today, it doesn’t mean it won’t make sense tomorrow. All I can keep telling you is, you know where my current focuses are, but at the same time we’re a fully operational Death Star.”

Cashman knows the Death Star got blown up, right? Anyway, the Rule 5 Draft is at 12pm ET today and everyone pretty much heads home after that, so the Winter Meetings are pretty much over. I’m sure some news and rumors and will trickle in though. Here are Monday’s rumors, Tuesday’s rumors, and Wednesday’s rumors, and here are today’s Yankees-related rumors. All timestamps are Eastern Time.

5:32pm: The Yankees are open to adding another starter even after re-signing J.A. Happ, though there is little optimism for a Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer trade with the Indians. I figured that was the case even before the Happ deal. [Marc Carig]
5:29pm: The reliever market “is starting to move” and the Yankees are talking to free agents and potential trade partners, according to assistant GM Mike Fishman. Jeurys Familia (Mets) and Joe Kelly (Dodgers) signed late last night, so the bullpen floodgates should open soon. [Bryan Hoch]
10:02am: The Yankees have asked about “high-end Major League talent” in Sonny Gray trade talks and that is apparently why he has not yet been traded. I have no problem with that. The Yankees (probably) won’t get that high-end talent, but ask for the moon and adjust down as necessary. You never know, some team just might be willing to meet that big initial asking price. Scott Kazmir, Victor Zambrano, etc. etc. [George King]
9:30am: Thanks to Gleyber Torres’ versatility, the Yankees are not prioritizing a shortstop or a second baseman while searching for a Didi Gregorius replacement. They want the best player regardless of position. “The best decision possible, whatever it happens to be. Clearly, it’s a very deep amount of opportunities in the second base market rather than shortstop. So we’ll just have to decide,” said Brian Cashman. [Brendan Kuty]

2018 Winter Meetings Rumors Thread: Wednesday

December 12, 2018 by Mike

The Winter Meetings are two days old and thus far the Yankees have been mentioned in one potential blockbuster, a three-team trade that would bring Noah Syndergaard to the Bronx, but that seems like a long shot. It always did. The Mets trading three years of Syndergaard to get two years of J.T. Realmuto doesn’t add up. The Yankees will (probably) have to come up with a starting pitcher another way.

“We have our comfort levels and if and whenever we do match up on the trade or free agent front, then we’ll have something to show for it, but there’s no guarantee that will happen anytime soon,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera. “(A deal) could happen today. We’re very active. But at the same time, we’re disciplined about what we’re willing to do and what we’re not willing to do.”

In addition to the Syndergaard thing, we’ve learned the Yankees are open to trading Miguel Andujar, still have interest in Zach Britton, and will meet with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper at some point. The Harper meeting will take place during the Winter Meetings because he lives in Las Vegas. Machado will come visit the Yankees in New York. No moves so far this week but lots of chatter.

Here are Monday’s rumors and Tuesday’s rumors. Today is the final full day of the Winter Meetings — everyone will head home after the Rule 5 Draft tomorrow — so, if the Yankees are going to get a deal done in Las Vegas, it’ll probably happen today. Anyway, here are today’s Yankees-related rumors. This post will be updated throughout the day so check back often. All timestamps are Eastern Time:

7:07pm: Well, forget about a Lance Lynn reunion. The Rangers gave him a three-year deal worth $30M, according to multiple reports. Imagine?
5:31pm: “I’ve never heard the Yankees say (they’re out on Bryce Harper). It might be that they say things to you. I wasn’t there,” said Scott Boras today. Keep in mind Boras wants everyone to think the Yankees are in on Harper even if they’re not. [Ken Davidoff]
3:20pm: The Yankees remain in “active discussions” with the Reds about Sonny Gray. Cincinnati seems to be connected to everyone this winter, including Corey Kluber. [Jon Morosi]
3:18pm: The Yankees have discussed trade possibilities with the Indians regarding their starting pitchers. There is no traction at the moment because the asking price is quite high. [Marc Carig]
2:00pm: The Yankees have been in contact with Freddy Galvis‘ representatives. He’s an excellent defender with double-digit homer power but poor on-base skills (career .290 OBP). Obviously the Yankees are considering him as a potential Didi Gregorius replacement. [Joel Sherman]
11:14am: In addition to J.A. Happ, the Yankees are in the mix for Lance Lynn. I would be perfectly fine with Lynn as a long man/sixth starter type. As the Opening Day fifth starter? Nah. Seems like there’s enough interest in Lynn that he’ll get a rotation spot elsewhere and not have to settle for a swingman role with the Yankees. [Mark Feinsand]
9:56am: The Yankees have not yet given any thought to signing Troy Tulowitzki. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki with two years and $38M remaining on his contract yesterday, so any team can sign him for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Tulowitzki did not play at all this past season due to heel trouble but he’s recovered and is working out this winter. [Brendan Kuty]
9:43am: Brian Cashman met with Adam Ottavino‘s agent last night. He is believed to be high on their wish list. Ottavino grew up in Brooklyn but I wouldn’t put much stock into the hometown thing. Money is usually the determining factor in free agency. [Joel Sherman]
9:30am: The Phillies are believed to be inching closer to a deal with J.A. Happ, who is holding out for a three-year contract. “They are bringing it,” said one executive. The Yankees have interest in a reunion with Happ but thus far have been unwilling to offer a third year. [George King]
9:30am: Internally, it was “never even much of a debate” for the Yankees to chase J.T. Realmuto. They value Gary Sanchez highly and he has four years of team control remaining whereas Realmuto only has two. [Joel Sherman]

The reasons why the Yankees should (and should not) pursue Trevor Bauer over Corey Kluber

December 10, 2018 by Mike

When Patrick Corbin agreed to his six-year contract with the Nationals last week, the Yankees missed out on the best chance to add a pitcher who’s demonstrated top of the rotation ability for nothing but cash this offseason. Dallas Keuchel has a Cy Young to his credit but it’s been a few years since he pitched at that level. Charlie Morton had ace moments this year before finishing the season hurt. J.A. Happ? He’s fine. That’s about it. Fine.

The Yankees have already added one starter with top of the rotation ability in James Paxton and, to make it happen, they had to trade prospects. They’ll have to trade prospects (or big league players) to get another pitcher of that caliber. They’ll have to trade players and find a willing trade partner, which isn’t always easy because high-end starters rarely hit the market. Those guys are crazy valuable and teams try to keep them as long as possible.

Fortunately, one such trade partner exists, and they have two top of the rotation starters to peddle. Earlier this offseason the Indians indicated they’re willing to entertain trade offers for their starters and, in the wake of Carlos Carrasco’s incredibly team-friendly extension, Ken Rosenthal reports Cleveland will trade either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer. Not may trade, will trade. The Indians need to get their payroll in order and the rotation will be the casualty.

Kluber is excellent and has been for years now. Bauer really came into his own this past season before a comebacker broke a bone in his leg in August and forced him to return as a reliever late in the year simply because there wasn’t enough time to get him stretched back out as a starter. An unfortunate fluke injury through and through. Kluber is the big name here but is Bauer the better trade target? Let’s compare the pros and cons.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’s younger

Five years younger, in fact, and that’s significant. Bauer turns 28 next month and Kluber will turn 33 in April. Kluber, as good as he is, has started to show some signs of decline, specifically in his fastball velocity and his slider whiffs-per-swing rate. Bauer is trending in the other direction. He’s on the way up. And, even if you think 2018 was Bauer’s peak, his age theoretically makes him a better bet to maintain that level of performance going forward than Kluber. I’m not sure either guy offers more upside than the other, but Bauer does have age on his side.

Reason to trade for Kluber: He’s more luxury tax friendly

Not only is it two years of control (Bauer) vs. three years of control (Kluber), the luxury tax calculation favors Kluber the next two (and likely three) years, albeit slightly. Here’s the salary comparison:

	Bauer	Kluber
2019	$11.6M arbitration projection (via MLBTR)	$17M ($11.7M luxury tax hit)
2020	$18M arbitration guesstimate	$17.5M club option ($16.5M luxury tax hit)
2021	Free agent	$18M club option ($18M luxury tax hit)

Bauer is arbitration-eligible the next two years and that creates some cost uncertainty. If he repeats his 2018 numbers in 2019, he could easily end up with $20M+ in 2020. Kluber’s salaries and luxury tax hits are locked in. His take home salary will exceed Bauer’s next year but his luxury tax hit will be about the same, and he’ll almost certainly that the lower luxury tax number in 2020, and the Yankees seem more concerned with the luxury tax payroll than actual money spent.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’s on the upswing

Prior to the leg injury this year Bauer made 25 starts and threw 166 innings with a 2.22 ERA (2.38 FIP) with average ground ball (44.2%) and walk (8.2%) rates and an excellent strikeout rate (31.5%). In the second half last season Bauer threw 83.2 innings with a 3.01 ERA (3.68 FIP) and very good strikeout (26.7%) and walk (7.5%) rates. That’s after a 5.24 ERA (4.06 FIP) in the first half. Look at this:

We’ve seen a lot of random one-year aces. Esteban Loaiza in 2003 is the gold standard for random one-year aces and, in recent years, others like Ubaldo Jimenez and Ricky Romero had their moments as one of those “oh wow he’s an ace now … nevermind” guys. The fact Bauer’s breakout dates back to last year suggests this is more than a fluky one-year blip. He’s a soon-to-be 28-year-old former top prospect entering his prime. That’s a good time to get a guy, you know?

Reason to trade for Kluber: Bauer has some home run regression coming

The single biggest reason for Bauer’s improvement this past season was his sudden ability to limit home runs. From 2014-17, he ran a 1.09 HR/9 (11.9% HR/FB) rate. That is more or less league average. This past season Bauer managed a 0.46 HR/9 (6.2% HR/FB). Hmmm. Put him in Yankee Stadium and the AL East and his home run rate will inevitably climb because that’s the environment.

It’s also likely Bauer will experience some natural homer regression because almost no one is a true talent 6.2% HR/FB pitcher. Batted ball data goes back to 2002 and, among the 444 pitchers to throw at least 500 innings since then, Mariano Rivera has the lowest homer rate at 6.5% HR/FB. The lowest by a starter belongs to Jason Schmidt (7.6% HR/FB). The lowest by an American League starter belongs to Justin Verlander (8.6% HR/FB). So either Bauer’s true talent is suddenly the best home run suppressor of the last 16 years or he’s in for some home run rate correction next year. My money’s on the latter.

Reason to trade for Bauer: He’ll probably come cheaper

An additional year of control combined with a much longer track record of excellence suggests it should cost more to acquire Kluber. That said, Kluber is older, and the market will be driven by supply and demand more than anything. Also, Bauer will be cheaper in 2019. The luxury tax hit will be similar, but in terms of actual salary, Bauer will be cheaper. I still think the extra year of control and track record points to Kluber fetching a greater return. I guess we’ll find out.

Reason to trade for Kluber: He’s not insufferable

My gosh is Bauer a sophomoric turd. A sophomoric turd who’s full of himself. He spent an afternoon last week tweeting pictures of middle fingers at people who made fun of him for his latest drone injury. There’s the Gerrit Cole/Alex Bregman feud (in which he keeps taking Ls). And last month Bauer said he only wants to sign one-year contracts because he’s such a pitching savant that he wants to go to many different teams and help as many young pitchers as possible. Tom Ley called Bauer a “stupid person’s idea of a smart person” earlier this year and it is perfect.

Bauer is very outspoken and he has a knack for saying dumb things. It is part of the Trevor Bauer experience. You don’t get to pick and choose the pieces you want. You get the whole package. MLB has suspended Bauer’s Twitter account on at least one occasion, likely because he told a fan to “quit life,” and every few weeks he says something dumb and controversial. About baseball, about politics, about whatever. In Cleveland, those things blow over quickly. In New York? Nah. Bauer’s a very talented pitcher but also an obvious headache. Kluber is anything but. He is business-like to the point of being boring, and the Yankees like boring. Any team that pursues Bauer will ask themselves “how much nonsense are we willing to live with to get a great pitcher?”

* * *

Rosenthal says the Indians are not interested in attaching a bad contract (like Jason Kipnis) to one of their starters to unload salary. Whichever starter they deal, the Indians want to maximize that starter’s trade value and get as much young talent as possible. They want to make a baseball trade, not a payroll trade. Good for them. I mean, it sucks they have to trade a starter for payroll reasons in the first place, but at least they’re going to focus on talent.

The fact Bauer is younger and entering what should be his prime makes him a more attractive trade target than Kluber, who’s almost certainly already had his best years and is theoretically about to enter his decline phase. That Bauer might not cost as much to acquire is icing on the cake. Kluber will be more luxury tax friendly going forward, albeit slightly, and he undoubtedly would not be as much of a distraction, and those are points in his favor. The New York media would have a field day with Bauer.

With the Yankees having missed out Corbin, they’ll have to trade players to get an impact pitcher now, because that clear-cut high-end starter does not exist in free agency. Happ is fine, Keuchel lost a lot of strikeouts and ground balls this year, and Morton ended the season hurt. Kluber and Bauer are on the short list of the best pitchers in the game and both are available, apparently. The Yankees should of course check in on both guys, and Bauer just might be the better option at this point.

Hot Stove Notes: Corbin, Kluber, Eovaldi, Ottavino, Segura

November 21, 2018 by Mike

The offseason is barely more than three weeks old and already the Yankees have re-signed Brett Gardner, re-signed CC Sabathia, and traded for James Paxton. They still need another starter, a Didi Gregorius replacement, and some bullpen depth. Still lots to do. “I can’t predict what’s going to happen as we move forward, other than the fact that we need to fill some needs,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera following the Paxton trade. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees remain interested in Corbin, Happ, Kluber

Even after the Paxton trade, the Yankees remain interested in free agents Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ, reports Jon Morosi. Also, Andy Martino adds the Yankees are still in touch with the Indians about Corey Kluber, but the asking price is quite high. I can’t see a Kluber (or Carlos Carrasco) deal going down now that Justus Sheffield has been traded. Not unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar, plus other prospects.

As for Corbin and Happ, they’re both good to great rotation options at different ends of the projected contract spectrum. Happ turned 36 last month and is looking at a short-term deal at $10M to $15M annually, I imagine. Corbin is only 29 and is close to a lock to get nine figures. I prefer Corbin despite the price tag. He’s younger than Happ and I think he’ll be the better pitcher in 2019 and beyond. Happ’s not an unreasonable option on a short-term deal though. I prefer Corbin but either would work.

Yankees not among earlier suitors for Eovaldi

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest in free agent righty Nathan Eovaldi early this offseason. Cafardo listed nine teams with interest, including contenders like the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox. This past season, his first since his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi had a 3.81 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 22.2% strikeouts and 4.4% walks in 111 total innings.

It is inevitable that Eovaldi, 29 in February, will get overrated this offseason after what he did to the Yankees this year (six runs in 23.1 innings) and his stellar postseason (1.61 ERA and 2.71 FIP). It’s already happening, really. But man, I am a hard pass here. For starters, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery guy whose entire game is built on throwing the ball really freaking hard. And secondly, I am extremely skeptical of the “this enigmatic pitcher has figured it out!” demographic. Nate’s a good dude and I hope he gets paid. Just not by the Yankees.

Yankees have discussed Kikuchi

From the no duh department: The Yankees have internally discussed Seibu Lions left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who will be posted this offseason, reports David Lennon. “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings. We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year,” said Hal Steinbrenner at the owners meetings last week. Not a ringing endorsement, but whatever.

Kikuchi, 27, is one of the top starters in Japan. He threw 163.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA and 153 strikeouts this past season. Here’s a scouting report. Kikuchi is represented by Scott Boras and, from what I understand, he’s already come to the United States and taken a physical so teams can review his medicals in advance. That’s standard practice. That way the two sides don’t have to squeeze in a physical before the signing deadline. Kikuchi has not yet been posted. It can’t happen any later than December 5th. I don’t know much about him beyond what I’ve shared here so I don’t have a strong opinion about the guy. The Yankees do need another starter though. We’ll see.

Yankees interested in Ottavino

The Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, Cashman said to Joel Sherman, and Sherman says they have interest in free agent Adam Ottavino. The two relievers thing makes sense with David Robertson and Zach Britton becoming free agents. Robertson is representing himself and, for what it’s worth, he told Bryan Hoch he’s been in contact with the Yankees and would like to pitch close to his Rhode Island home. Agenting 101: When negotiating with the Yankees, indicate you’re willing to sign with the Red Sox. Robertson’s a quick learner.

As for the Ottavino, the Brooklyn native had a ridiculous season with the Rockies, throwing 77.2 innings with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 36.3% strikeouts. A few too many walks (11.7%) though. He turns 33 tomorrow. Ottavino has had some injury issues and it’s been a while since he was that good in a full season, but he has done it before. He’d be a fine addition to the bullpen. My preferred bullpen target this offseason is Robertson. Just re-sign him already. It makes too much sense. The Yankees want two relievers though, so maybe they’ll find room in the budget for Robertson and Ottavino. Would be cool. Not holding my breath though.

Yankees, Mariners talked Segura

Now this is fun. According to Morosi, the Yankees asked about Jean Segura during Paxton trade talks with the Mariners. Obviously this is in response to Gregorius’ injury. Seattle is tearing things down and Segura, who is still somehow only 28, is one of their top trade chips as a quality two-way shortstop on an affordable contract (owed $60.4M from 2019-22). Ultimately, the Yankees decided to move forward with the Paxton only trade. I guess the asking price for Segura was too high.

This past season Segura hit .304/.341/.415 (111 wRC+) with ten homers and 20 steals, and, over the last three years, he’s put up a .308/.353/.449 (117 wRC+) line in almost 2,000 plate appearances. Between his offense and defense, he’s a reliable +4 WAR player right now. The Yankees could’ve put Segura at short until Gregorius returned, then used those two on the middle infield, Torres at third, and Andujar at first base or in left field. Or maybe the Yankees would let Gregorius walk as a free agent and use Segura as their everyday shortstop. Perhaps the two sides will revisit trade talks later in the offseason.

Scouting the Trade Market: Corey Kluber

November 14, 2018 by Mike

You know baseball is kinda screwed up when, despite record high league revenues, a reigning three-time division champ is said to be willing to move veterans to get their payroll in order. Earlier this month Buster Olney reported the Indians will “listen to trade offers for some of their veteran players this winter as they face the sort of difficult choices that small-market teams must address.” Cleveland’s decision-makers did not deny that report.

“We will be creative in looking at ways to improve our team,” president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said to Ryan Lewis at the GM Meetings last week. “That’s one way in which we could do that. It’s not the only way. But it’s certainly one of the avenues we could pursue is to trade from an area of depth to address another area of our team.”

Among players making real money, the belief is everyone except Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez is available. That means the Indians are open to discussing members of their vaunted rotation, including Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, who the Yankees reportedly discussed with Cleveland last week. The GM Meetings are a good opportunity to meet face-to-face and Brian Cashman did exactly that with Antonetti & Co. last week.

Does Kluber make sense for the Yankees? Of course. He’s on the very short list of the best pitchers in MLB and tonight he could win his third Cy Young. It’ll probably go to Blake Snell, but Kluber is a finalist, which means he’s going to finish in the top three of the Cy Young voting for the fourth time in the last five years. He’s really good. Let’s take a look at the apparently available Corey Kluber, shall we?

Background

Most aces you can see coming a mile away. They’re usually former first round picks or high-profile international signings, and top prospects in the minors. Kluber was none of those things. He grew up near Dallas, played his college ball at Stetson, and was a fourth round pick by the Padres in 2007. San Diego sent him to the Indians in a three-team trade at the 2010 deadline. The deal:

Indians get: Corey Kluber
Cardinals get: Jake Westbrook, Nick Greenwood
Padres get: Ryan Ludwick

Kluber made the jump from interesting minor league arm to big league ace with the Indians. He never appeared on a top 100 prospects list and never ranked higher than 26th on his team’s top 30 list in Baseball America’s annual Prospect Handbook. Crazy, eh? Kluber, 32, owns a career 3.09 ERA (2.96 FIP) in 1,306 big league innings and has won two Cy Youngs (2014, 2017).

Performance

It is awfully good. Since 2014, the year he became Corey freakin’ Kluber, Kluber leads all pitchers with +31.0 fWAR and is second with +32.5 bWAR. (Max Scherzer leads with +34.8 bWAR). Again, this dude is on the very short list of the best pitchers in the game.

Normally when looking at a player’s performance, I go back three years. In Kluber’s case, I’m going back five, only because I appreciate the consistency of his greatness. His ERA jumps around a bit because that’s baseball. Everything else holds fairly steady. Check it out:

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9	RHB wOBA	LHB wOBA
2014	235.2	2.44	2.35	28.3	5.4	48.0	0.53	.246	.304
2015	222	3.49	2.97	27.7	5.1	42.4	0.89	.238	.322
2016	215	3.14	3.26	26.4	6.6	44.5	0.92	.266	.284
2017	203.2	2.25	2.50	34.1	4.6	44.5	0.93	.230	.251
2018	215	2.89	3.12	26.4	4.0	44.4	1.05	.250	.290

Lordy. Last season was an outlier in terms of strikeouts. Otherwise Kluber’s run a strikeout rate in the 26.4% to 28.3% range the last few years, a low walk rate, a ground ball rate right at the league average, and he’s given up one homer every nine innings or so. He chews up righties and merely dominates lefties. Year in and year out, it’s the same Corey Kluber, and that Corey Kluber is very good.

That consistency extends to his quality-of-contact numbers as well. We only have four years worth of Statcast data at this point, and from 2015-18, Kluber has posted expected wOBAs of .282, .281, .254, and .276. Again, that 2017 season is a bit of an outlier. That was likely Kluber’s career year. His other years are still outstanding. Tons of strikeouts, few walks, and a lot of favorable contact. Patrick Corbin had a big increase in strikeouts and a big decline in home runs this year. James Paxton’s home run rate increased. Kluber, meanwhile, was the same guy he’s always been.

Current Stuff

I’m not sure anything Kluber throws is straight. He more or less shelved his four-seamer this year and committed to the sinker as his primary fastball. Kluber also throws a wicked slider that looks like it belongs in a video game …

… a slightly less wicked cutter, and the occasional changeup. He throws the sinker and cutter roughly 30% of the time each and the slider about 22% of the time, so they are his main pitches. Kluber throws all three to righties and lefties. Only lefties get the changeup and the four-seamer is basically a show-me pitch to batters on both sides of the plate. I wouldn’t necessarily call it electric stuff because he’s not throwing in the upper-90s, but it sure is nasty stuff though. Here’s some video:

As you might suspect, Kluber runs a very high whiffs-per-swing rate on his slider (38.0%) and a solid ground ball rate on his sinker (52.7%). That has been the case consistently over the years. The biggest difference between 2017 Kluber and all-other-years Kluber is the cutter. Batters missed with 37.4% (!) of their swings against the cutter last year. In all other years, it’s right around 30.0%. (29.1% in 2018.) That 30.0% is really good! But 37.4% is bonkers.

Given his age (33 in April) and his workload (1,136.2 innings since 2014, postseason included, the most in baseball), it is no surprise Kluber is starting to lose some velocity. It has been a gradual decline the last few years, not a sudden drop. From 2014-18, his average sinker velocity has gone from 94.2 mph to 93.8 mph to 93.4 mph to 92.9 mph to 92.6 mph. Like I said, gradual. Here’s the graph:

Velocity loss is part of life. It happens to pretty much every pitcher. Kluber has remained (extremely) effective while losing velocity and I think he has the tools and the pitching know-how to continue to be effective going forward. There’s going to come a point where he’s not an ace anymore, but the stuff is there to suggest Kluber still has a few years to go as an above-average starter. Maybe I’m dead wrong. It’s been known to happen. There aren’t many pitchers in the game I would take going into their mid-30s over Kluber though.

Injury History

You don’t throw over 1,100 innings in a five-year span by getting hurt a bunch. Kluber’s been on the disabled list twice in his career. He missed a month with a finger sprain in 2013 and a month with a back strain in 2017. Kluber’s only arm injury came way back in high school. He suffered a stress fracture in his elbow as a senior and they had to insert two screws in there to stabilize things. He’s had no elbow (or shoulder) problems since.

I do think it’s worth noting that Kluber has seemed to wear down late in the season the last few years. He made three starts on short rest during the 2016 postseason and clearly wasn’t himself in his two 2017 ALDS starts or his lone 2018 ALDS start. Going forward, maybe it’s best to treat him as a 180-inning guy rather than a 210-inning guy? If possible, that is. Him team might need to push him down the stretch to get to the postseason. If possible though, scaling back on the soon-to-be 33-year-old who’s thrown over 1,100 innings the last five years seems worthwhile.

Contract Status

The Indians signed Kluber to a bargain five-year contract worth only $38.5M (!) guaranteed back in April 2015. He only had two years of service time at the time, but still, the dude just won the Cy Young and couldn’t get $10M annually? Crazy. The 2019 season is the final guaranteed year on that contract, though there are club options for 2020 and 2021. Here’s the breakdown:

	Actual Salary	Luxury Tax Hit
2019	$17M	$11.7M†
2020	$17.5M option ($1M buyout)	$16.5M
2021	$18M option ($1M buyout)	$18M*

* The $1M buyout isn’t subtracted from the luxury tax hit in 2021 because it is not guaranteed money. Kluber doesn’t get the $1M buyout in 2021 if he’s bought out in 2020. Only the $1M buyout in 2020 is guaranteed and thus lumped in with the first five years of the contract for luxury tax purposes.

Originally, the 2020 and 2021 options were worth $13.5M and $14M, respectively, but Kluber has already hit all his Cy Young voting based escalators and increased the option year salaries. I’ve seen a few sites incorrectly list the options as $13.5M and $14M. That’s wrong. Kluber hit all his escalators and they’re worth $17.5M and $18M now. Not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.

† Five years and $38.5M equals a $7.7M average annual value and thus a $7.7M luxury tax hit. However, Kluber maxed out his $4M in escalators for 2019, so that $4M in bonuses gets tacked on to his 2019 luxury tax number. That’s how $7.7M becomes $11.7M.

I should also note that while Kluber does not have a no-trade clause, he does get a $1M bonus each times he’s traded. Sometimes teams split the assignment bonus — the Yankees and Padres split Chase Headley’s $1M bonus last winter — but the Yankees may have to pay the $1M, which would get applied to their 2019 luxury tax hit. Bonuses are luxury taxable. That bargain $11.7M luxury tax hit could become a slightly less bargainy $12.7M after the trade.

Anyway, that is a steal of a contract, both in terms of actual salary and luxury tax hit. It is effectively a series of three one-year contracts that can max out at $53.5M when you include the trade bonus. Kluber would get double that had he been a free agent this offseason. Maybe triple. The luxury tax hits are low (especially in 2019), and, if there’s a catastrophic injury at some point in the next two years, you can walk away and be off the hook financially.

What’s It Going To Cost?

How often does an ace-caliber starter with three years of control get traded? Not often at all. We do have close to a perfect trade match here, however: Chris Sale. Like Kluber, Sale was traded after five Cy Young caliber seasons and with three years of control, and, also like Kluber, it was one guaranteed year plus two club option years. Here’s what the Red Sox gave up to acquire Sale:

Yoan Moncada (global top three prospect)
Michael Kopech (global top 30 prospect)
Luis Alexander Basabe (organizational top ten prospect)
Victor Diaz (organizational fringe top 30 prospect)

Moncada hasn’t lived up to the hype since the trade but we can’t look at it that way. Hindsight doesn’t work. At the time of the trade, Moncada was regarded as a future star and arguably the top prospect in the game. It would’ve been akin to trading a perfectly healthy (i.e. no Tommy John surgery) Gleyber Torres prior to this past season. That’s what the Red Sox had to give up to get Sale. Arguably the top prospect in the game (plus more).

The Sale trade provides framework for a potential Kluber trade, but there are some key differences between the two. One, Sale was four years younger at the time of his trade than Kluber is now. That’s significant. Two, Sale’s contract was cheaper. He’ll be paid $39.5M during his three years (2017-19) with Boston. Kluber is owed $53.5M from 2019-21. A $14M difference spread across three years isn’t much, but it’s not nothing either.

And three, the Indians are going to try to win next season (I think). The AL Central is still theirs for the taking. It’s not crazy to think they could trade Kluber, who is inarguably one of the top pitchers in the game, and still be division favorites going into next season. The AL Central is that bad. The Sale trade, meanwhile, kicked off a rebuild for the White Sox. They could take prospects in return. The Indians presumably want players who can help right away.

From where I sit, I don’t see why the Indians would trade Kluber to the Yankees without getting Torres or Miguel Andujar in return. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball and he’s on an affordable contract. Why trade that guy for prospects? You need to get a stud young big leaguer as the package headliner, especially if you’re trying to win next year. Who knows what the Indians want though. Point is, it’ll hurt to get Kluber. Guys like him don’t come cheap.

Does He Make Sense For The Yankees?

Absolutely. It’s easy to get a little squeamish about his age and workload, but, at the end of the day, Kluber remains an elite pitcher, and his contract is not onerous. His contract situation is about as favorable as it gets, in fact. And even if his performance slips a bit, he’s starting from such a high baseline that he could still be an above-average starter. The Yankees need rotation help and, in terms of expected production in 2019 and beyond, I’d take Kluber over every free agent starter as well as Paxton, the other big name trade candidate.

That all said, there is an acquisition cost to consider. Is it better to give up prospects and young big leaguers to get Kluber, or simply spend money (plus a draft pick and international bonus money) to get Corbin? Does the prospect cost make Paxton a better bang for the buck? That all has to be considered. Generally speaking, when prospects are traded for an ace, the team that gets the ace rarely regrets it (see: Sale, Chris). If all it takes is prospects, the Yankees should do it immediately. If it takes Gleyber or Andujar, well, it’s still worth serious consideration, but the decision isn’t quite as obvious.