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Yankeemetrics: Sweepless in Seattle (Sept. 7-9)

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(AP)

Ace Tanaka
The Yankees made sure that there would be no hangover from their miserable blowout loss in the series finale at Oakland, as they rebounded to beat the Mariners on Friday night, 4-0.

The win improved the Yankees to 53-29 all-time at Safeco Field, the best record at the ballpark by any team. They completely dominated the Mariners, who had just four baserunners (three hits, one walk) thanks to another gem from Masahiro Tanaka. It was the first time the Yankees blanked the Mariners while giving up no more than three hits since May 14, 1996 … Dwight Gooden’s memorable no-hitter in the Bronx.

Tanaka was stellar, tossing eight scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks. Only one runner reached third base, and he retired 13 batters in row between a first-inning two-out single by Robinson Cano and a sixth-inning leadoff double by Mike Zunino. Tanaka is the first pitcher in franchise history with a 10-strikeout, no-walk scoreless outing against the Mariners. It was his fifth career double-digit, zero-walk game; the only Yankee with more is Mike Mussina (7).

The brilliant performance also extended his run of dominant ace-like performances since the All-Star break. His 2.30 ERA in the second half of the season is the third-best among AL pitchers (min. 30 IP), behind only Blake Snell (1.42) and David Price (1.78).

Gleyber Torres gave Tanaka some early run support with his 23rd home run of the season in the second inning, a two-run bomb that also was his 100th career hit. Torres (21 years, 268 days old) is the youngest Yankee to reach the century-hit milestone since a 20-year-old Mickey Mantle in 1952. He also matched Mantle on this home run leaderboard of franchise legends:

Longballs FTW
The Bombers used their two trademark offensive weapon home runs and almost-homers (sac flies) to beat the Mariners on Saturday night, 4-2. They lead the majors in both categories (232 homers, 51 sac flies) — and by large margins. Entering Sunday, their 34-homer lead was nearly the same as the difference between the second-place teams (Dodgers and A’s, 198) and the 15th place team (Phillies, 165). And their six-sac fly lead was the same as the difference between the second-place Pirates (45) and the eighth-place Diamondbacks (39).

(AP)

Andrew McCutchen got the deep-ball party started when he cranked a leadoff homer in the top of the first. McCutchen is the third different Yankee to hit a leadoff blast this season (Gardner has three and Hicks has one). The last time they had a trio of players each with at least one leadoff homer was 1995, when four guys — Tony Fernandez, Bernie Williams, Luis Polonia, Wade Boggs — did it.

After Seattle tied it up in the third, Giancarlo Stanton put them ahead again in the fifth with a sacrifice fly to right, his 10th with the team. He is one of four Yankees to hit double-digit sac flies and 30 homers in a season:

The Mariners quickly knotted it up again in the bottom of the fifth, but Austin Romine finally gave the Yankees the lead for good with a solo blast in the seventh. It was his first career go-ahead homer in the seventh inning or later.

(USA Today)

Dellin Betances survived a shaky ninth inning for his third save of the season. He loaded the bases with one out and then struck out Denard Span and Kyle Seager swinging to seal the win. Opponents are 5-for-50 (.100) with the bases loaded against Betances in his career, and he’s whiffed nearly half (28) of them (58). That .100 batting average allowed is the lowest among all active MLB pitchers (min. 50 batters faced).

(AP)

WTF loss to the Mariners
All streaks must come to an end, right? The Bombers domination of the Mariners was snapped in abrupt fashion on Sunday, losing 3-2 on a fantastic game-ending catch by Mitch Haniger with the Yankees potential game-tying run on base. Prior to that loss, they had won seven in a row against the Mariners, and were going for the season series sweep. It would have been the first time ever that the Yankees swept a season series against an AL West team since divisional play began in 1969.

The big story of the game was another RISP-fail showing by the offense, which went 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position. That included a no-out, bases-loaded situation in the fourth inning that resulted in a single run scored when Andrew McCutchen took ball four on a full-count. The Bronx Walkers’ 14 bases-loaded walks are tied for the fourth-most in MLB this season, while their batting average and slugging percentage both rank 23rd.

(USA Today)

CC Sabathia battled through a rough first two innings but was able to limit the damage (two runs) and retired 11 of the final 13 batters he faced. Sabathia’s 2.24 ERA in 15 career starts at Safeco Field is the third-lowest at the ballpark among all pitchers with at least 10 starts there, behind Bartolo Colon (1.98) and Dan Haren (2.00).

Giancarlo Stanton — along with making the final out of the game — ended the no-hitter version of this game early with a first-inning double, his 30th of the season. Round number alert: he is the first Yankee with at least 30 homers and 30 doubles since Robinson Cano in 2012, the first Yankee right-handed batter to do it since Alex Rodriguez in 2008, and the first Yankee DH/outfielder to achieve both marks in a season since Hideki Matsui in 2004.

Yankeemetrics: Brooms alive, Yankees sweep O’s (Aug. 24-26)

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(AP)

Luuuuuuuuuuuke!
The Yankees opened the series in Baltimore with a comeback win in 10 innings on Friday night. It was their first extra-inning win at Camden Yards in more than five years — since May 20, 2013 — after losing their previous four matchups there that went to overtime.

The victory improved the Yankees extra-inning record this season to 8-5, their most extra-inning wins since 2001 (8-8). It also was their eighth win when trailing at the start of the eighth inning, matching their win total from last year, and tied for the second-most in MLB this season (only the A’s had more through Friday).

The Yankees clawed back twice from a two-run deficit to win the game. The first rally was capped by a two-run bomb in the fourth inning from Luke Voit, his first homer as a Yankee. Voit boosted his pinstriped legend status with another two-run dinger in the 10th for his first career multi-homer game. Both the homers came off righties — prior to Friday, Voit had just two homers in 102 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in his big-league career.

After the Orioles re-took the lead in the seventh, Gleyber Torres responded with a clutch, game-tying two-run single in the top of the eighth. It was his second hit this year in the eighth inning or later that tied the game; he is the only Yankee with multiple hits like that this season.

Neil Walker capped the second comeback with a solo homer in the 10th inning, and combined with Voit’s bomb in that same inning, it was the second game this season that the Yankees hit two or more homers in the 10th inning or later (also on June 6 at Toronto). #FunFact: The last time that the Yankees had two different games in a season where they smacked multiple extra-inning homers was 1941.

(Getty)

#TooManyHomers, It’s a Happ-y Day
A winning streak against a bad team? Yes! The Yankees clobbered the Orioles in the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader, hammering four homers en route to a 10-3 win. It was their MLB-leading 13th game this season with at least four homers; no other team had more than eight such games entering the weekend.

Miguel Andujar kicked off the home run derby with a go-ahead three-run blast in the third inning. It was his 21st of the season and 10th that either tied the game or gave the Yankees the lead. He is the youngest Yankee with at least 10 go-ahead/game-tying homers in a season since a 23-year-old Don Mattingly hit 11 in 1984.

J.A. Happ continued his outstanding run with the Yankees, winning for the fifth time in five starts as he delivered a strong six-inning, two-run effort. He now has a 2.37 in his five starts since joining the team, after posting a 6.65 ERA in his final five starts with the Blue Jays. As we always do, let’s celebrate Happ’s first month in pinstripes with a trio of #FunFacts:

  • First left-hander to win each of his first five games with the Yankees since Babe Ruth, who appeared in five games (four starts) for the franchise from 1920-33 and won all five games … with a 5.52 ERA.
  • First pitcher to both start and earn the win in each of his first five appearances as a Yankee since Bob Turley in 1955.
  • And finally, Happ is the first pitcher in franchise history to start in each of his first five games as Yankee, and get a win in each of those games while allowing no more than three earned runs.

Forever Sonny in Baltimore
The Yankees won 5-1 in the nightcap of Saturday’s twinbill, the first time they took both games of a doubleheader since April 16, 2014 against the Cubs at Yankee Stadium. That snapped a streak of 10 straight doubleheaders either split or lost, their longest drought since 1969-70 (14 straight).

You have to go back seven more years to find the last time the Yankees swept a doubleheader on the road — May 3, 2007 at Texas. And the last time they won both games of a twinbill at Camden Yards? July 13, 1996.

(AP)

Sonny Gray, making his first start since getting demoted to the bullpen, pitched a gem as he threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings while striking out seven and allowing just three hits. If that type of performance by Gray against the Orioles in Baltimore sounds familiar … well, there’s this stat to consider:

That’s four straight starts at Camden Yards with no more than one run allowed, the longest such streak since Pedro Martinez had a similar stretch from 2000-02. And going back further to his last start there with the A’s, it’s five straight starts at Camden Yards with no more than one earned run allowed, the longest streak by any pitcher in the history of the ballpark.

Tommy Kahnle couldn’t close out the game as the Orioles pounded him in the bottom of the ninth, so Dellin Betances came to the rescue and struck out Caleb Joseph for the final out. It was Betances’ 33rd straight game with a strikeout, the longest such streak by a reliever in AL history (previous record of 32 was set by Jeff Montgomery in 1989). The MLB record is 49 by Aroldis Chapman with the Reds from 2013-14.

(Getty)

Louisssssssssssssssss!
The Yankees continued their newfound skill of beating up on bad teams as they finished off the series sweep with a 5-3 win on Sunday night. It’s their first four-game sweep of the Orioles in nearly 13 years — since September 19-22, 2005 (in New York) — and their first four-game sweep of the O’s in Baltimore since August 14-17, 2003. They’ve now won 17 of their last 21 games against sub-.500 teams.

The Yankees again jumped out to an early lead thanks to a two-run homer in the second inning by Luke Voit. It was his third homer in the last three games, after hitting five in his first 77 career major-league games. He added two singles for his second three-hit game of the series. If you’re curious, Greg Bird also has two career three-hit games (none this year) …

The scorching-hot Miguel Andujar made it a 4-0 cushion with a two-RBI double in the third, his 60th extra-base hit of the season. He is the seventh Yankee age 23 or younger with 60 or more extra-base hits in a season. This is a decent list to be on:

  • Miguel Andujar (2018)
  • Don Mattingly (1984)
  • Mickey Mantle (1952, ’55)
  • Joe DiMaggio (1936-38)
  • Ben Chapman (1932)
  • Lou Gehrig (1926)
  • Tony Lazzeri (1926)

Andujar finished 3-for-5 with two RBIs on Sunday night; he now has at least two hits in 45 of his 124 career games. The last Yankee to pile up 45 multi-hit games this early into his major-league career was Phil Rizzuto (48 in 124 games) in 1941.

David Robertson pitched a clean ninth inning for the save, the fourth different pitcher to save a game during the weekend sweep (Luis Cessa, Zach Britton, Dellin Betances are the others). Obscure Stat Alert! Since saves became official in 1969, this is the first time that the Yankees have won four straight games with a different pitcher earning the save in each game.

Bullpenning the Wild Card Game

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(Presswire)

In the 2017 AL Wild Card game between the Yankees and the Twins, lightning struck three times. First, Luis Severino, who’d established himself as an ace in the regular season, had nothing and gave up three runs while recording just one out. Second, the Yankees’ offense immediately came back in the bottom of the first. And third, and perhaps most importantly, the Yankees’ bullpen was virtually flawless, going 8.2 innings, surrendering just one run, and allowing only five hits and three walks. While it wasn’t the plan, the Yankees bullpened their most important game of the season to date.

While the Yankees certainly had the bullpen strength to plan that sort of game, it wasn’t what they intended. It happened by necessity and paid off. Had they planned to go the bullpen route, who knows what would’ve happened.

Once again, the Yankees are poised to make the Wild Card game and have a strong bullpen. Their ace has struggled at times, as has his ‘back up’ in Masahiro Tanaka. Should the Yankees employ the bullpen strategy during the Wild Card game?

It’s easy to see the bare bones of how they could do such a thing. Chad Green or Dellin Betances could start the game, using their high-octane stuff against the top of the order. For argument’s sake, let’s say it’s Green who goes first and handles the first two innings. After that, you could throw in one inning of Jonathan Holder against the bottom of the lineup to get you through the third, then Betances for two in the fourth and fifth. From there, David Robertson takes the sixth and seventh with Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman for an inning each to end it.

Alternatively, the Yankees could have a reliever start the game, throw two innings, and hand the ball to a starter for the next three before he makes way for the back end of the bullpen–Robertson, Betances, Britton, Chapman playing matchups.

This strategy is certainly tempting, but ultimately, I think only the absolute right set of circumstances would need to exist for it to be something the Yankees should try. First, the Yankees would need to be ‘out’ of viable starters. To me, that means that they had to fight for a playoff spot or division title down the stretch and used one of Severino or Tanaka before the Wild Card game. Second, they would need to try it at least once or twice in the regular season. Pitchers tend to be creatures of habit and having them break those habits for the first time before the biggest game of the season would likely be unwise.

Despite any struggles they’ve had this year, I’m much more inclined to trust Luis Severino or Masahiro Tanaka in a big game like the Wild Card game than I am a new strategy, even if it should work in theory. It’s something the pitchers are likely to be unfamiliar with and the playoffs is not the time to make your own players uncomfortable.

2018 Midseason Review: The Bullpen

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(Presswire)

As expected, the bullpen has been a strength for the Yankees so far this season. The relief crew actually got off to a bit of a rocky start the first week or two, though things have settled down nicely since, and Aaron Boone now has arguably the best and deepest bullpen in the game at his disposal.

Here are the team’s bullpen ranks 95 games into the season:

  • ERA: 2.69 (first)
  • FIP: 3.01 (second)
  • WHIP: 1.08 (second)
  • Strikeout Rate: 31.6% (first)
  • Shutdowns: 102 (fifth)
  • Meltdowns: 37 (first)
  • WAR: +6.6 (first)

Shutdowns and meltdowns are a neat win probability stat. Shutdowns are relief appearances that increase the team’s win probability least 6%. Meltdowns are relief appearances that decrease the team’s win probability at least 6%. Long story short, the Yankees have had an excellent bullpen this year, and that was the expectation coming into the season. Time to grade the relievers.

Dellin Betances

Midseason Grade: A

Expectations for Betances were pretty low coming into the season. He collapsed down the stretch last year and his control disappeared — Dellin walked eleven batters in his final 12.2 regular season innings — so much so that he was basically persona non grata in the postseason. Use only in an emergency. The Yankees stuck with Betances over the winter when much of the fan base was ready to dump him.

And, coming out of the gate this year, it seemed Betances was still broken. He allowed a homer in his first appearance of the season and Kevin Pillar embarrassed him by stealing his way around the bases in his second appearance. Six appearances into the season, Betances had allowed six runs on ten hits and three walks in 6.2 innings. He allowed three homers in his first 6.2 innings this year after allowing three homers in 59.2 innings last year.

Something funny happened after that: All-Star Dellin Betances returned. The Yankees and Boone said they were going to stick with Betances and get him right, and they did. Since April 14th, Betances has pitched to a 1.56 ERA (1.70 FIP) with lots of strikeouts (44.1%), lots of grounders (48.2%), and a tolerable amount of walks (11.8%) in 34.2 innings. Opponents are hitting .121/.244/.164 against him in those 34.2 innings. The knee-bucklers are back. The swag is back.

With Betances, given his history, it always feels like we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. Will this be the outing when he hits a batter and walks three? I get it, and it’s not an unreasonable feeling after last season. For now though, Betances has reclaimed the eighth inning setup role and gone back to being a monster strikeout machine. He could’ve gone to his fifth straight All-Star Game this year but did not. That doesn’t diminish his season performance at all.

Aroldis Chapman

Midseason Grade: A

The first year of Chapman’s reliever record five-year, $86M contract did not go according to plan. He got hurt early in the season and lost his closer’s job at midseason before finding it late and dominating in the postseason. This year, Chapman has come right out of the gate looking like the historically great late-inning reliever he’s been basically his entire career.

Through 95 team games Chapman has a 1.35 ERA (1.49 FIP) with his typically excellent strikeout rate (44.2%) and a strong ground ball rate (46.3%). His 10.4% walk rate is a tick below his 11.3% career average. Chapman is 26-for-27 in save chances and, in the one blown save, he didn’t even get hit around. A single, a hit-by-pitch, and two wild pitches pushed a run across. And the Yankees won that game anyway, so who cares?

We are more than halfway through the season now, so we can say for sure Chapman’s trademark velocity is down a tick. He’s averaging a still otherworldly 99.7 mph with his fastball. That’s down from 100.2 mph last year and 101.1 mph the year before. You have to go back to 2013 for the last time Chapman’s average fastball velocity was this low. We still see a few 103s and 104s, though not nearly as frequently as in the past.

Chapman is 30 years old now and he has been pitching basically his entire life, so a little velocity loss is no surprise. It is completely natural. He’s compensated for that velocity loss — again, the dude is still averaging 99.7 mph with his heater, so it’s not like he’s out there slinging mid-80s gas — with more sinkers and more sliders, especially with two strikes. It has worked wonderfully too.

Amazingly, Chapman has pitched this well despite ongoing tendinitis in his left (push-off) knee. He’s been dealing with it for weeks and he’s admitted he’ll probably have to deal with it all season. Chapman is getting regular treatment and it hasn’t stopped him from taking the mound — the knee did force him to leave a game earlier this month, though that had more to do with not wanting to push it with a four-run lead than “I can’t pitch it hurts too much” — so that’s good.

I’m not a big fan of players — especially very important players — playing through an injury, but what I think doesn’t matter, so Chapman will continue to pitch through the knee trouble. The doctors know better than me anyway. Even with the knee trouble, Chapman is having a truly outstanding season, a season that deservedly sent him to the All-Star Game. He’s been a rock in the ninth inning. Hand him a lead and the game is over.

A.J. Cole

Midseason Grade: A+

Cole is that kid whose family moved in the middle of the school year and the teachers at his new school grade him on a curve. The Yankees acquired Cole from the Nationals in a cash trade on April 24th because they needed a long man, and, as a 26-year-old former top 100 prospect, he offered some upside. Cole was terrible with Washington — he allowed 15 runs and 22 baserunners in 10.1 innings before the trade — but he was a low risk pickup. At worst, he’d soak up some innings in a blowout, then be cast aside for the next guy.

Instead, Cole has become the best long man the Yankees have had in quite some time. Probably since 2013 Adam Warren. He’s allowed one run in 18.2 innings around a minor neck injury, striking out 24 and holding opponents to a .172/.243/.234 batting line against. The Yankees, as they are wont to do, have Cole throwing far more sliders than ever before.

The Yankees have such a good bullpen that they haven’t needed Cole to pitch in high (or even medium) leverage situations. His average leverage index when entering the game is 0.53. That’s nothing. That is 33rd lowest among the 324 relievers with at least ten innings pitched this season. Perhaps there will come a time when Cole can audition for high leverage work. Right now, the Yankees don’t need him in that role. He can be a highly effective long man and there’s nothing wrong with that at all.

Chad Green

Midseason Grade: B

Two things are true this season. One, Green has been very good overall. Two, Green has not been as good as last season. Two blowups in two appearances prior to the All-Star break left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth, though, prior to those last two appearances, Green had a 1.91 ERA (2.39 FIP) in 42.1 innings. He was fantastic and he probably deserved to go to the All-Star Game.

Here is 2017 Chad Green vs. 2018 Chad Green:

IP ERA FIP K% BB% HR/9 Fastball Whiff%
2017 69 1.83 1.75 40.7% 6.7% 0.52 37.9%
2018 46 2.74 3.01 31.5% 5.0% 1.17 27.7%

Good numbers overall but also some discouraging trends. Green’s strikeouts are down, he’s not getting as many swings and misses with his trademark fastball, and his home run rate is up. He’s allowed six homers in 46 innings this season after allowing four homers in 69 innings last year, so yeah. That includes two back-breaking homers in his last two appearances of the first half.

I think Green’s step back this season — and by step back, I mean going from elite to merely above-average — has more to do with it being incredibly hard to succeed as a fastball only guy. Green’s slider kinda stinks but his fastball is great in terms of velocity and spin rate. But unless you have Chapman’s velocity, it’s hard to throw fastballs by hitters long-term. Green did it most of the season. Things kinda got away from him those last two outings.

Aside from Chapman, pretty much every reliever in the bullpen has been written off at some point this season. People were ready to move on from Betances, from David Robertson, from Jonathan Holder, so on and so forth. It seems it is now Green’s turn. Fortunately, the Yankees call the shots, not fans, and they’ll stick with Green and work to get him right. And, chances are, he’ll get right soon enough. No, Green has not been as good as last year. But he’s still been very good overall, and I see those last two outings as more of a bump in the road than anything.

Jonathan Holder

Midseason Grade: A

Another reliever who gets an A. Fourth in five reviews so far. Holder was in the Opening Day bullpen as basically the last guy on the roster, though he quickly earned a demotion to Triple-A after allowing seven runs and eight baserunners in his first 2.2 innings of the season. That includes taking the loss in a frustrating 14-inning game against the Orioles on April 6th.

Holder went to Triple-A, resurfaced in late April after Adam Warren went down with a lat issue, and since then he’s been out of this world good. He’s thrown 36.1 innings with a 0.50 ERA (1.99 FIP) since returning, with a good strikeout rate (22.4%) and an excellent walk rate (3.7%). It felt like he “arrived” on June 18th, when he inherited runners on the corners with no outs and a one-run lead against the Nationals, and didn’t allow a run to score.

Holder’s newfound success comes after a change in his pitch mix. He went to Triple-A, scrapped his high-spin curveball, and came back as a fastball/slider/changeup pitcher. He’s always had the slider and changeup, but they took a backseat to the curveball. Now the curveball is taking a backseat to the slider, which he uses against righties, and the changeup, which he uses against lefties.

Goodbye curveball (and cutter), hello slider and changeup. That adjustment has helped Holder make the jump from up-and-down depth arm to reliable middle reliever. In fact, on most other teams, I reckon Holder would be pitching in a traditional setup role by now. But because the Yankees are so deep in quality relievers, Boone is able to use Holder in the middle innings, when the starter bows out early and it’s a little too early to go to Betances and Green. Holder has been invaluable in that role.

Tommy Kahnle

Midseason Grade: F

Tough, but fair. Expectations were high for Kahnle coming into the season because he was so good last year and so effective in the postseason. Instead, Kahnle has been injured and ineffective this year. He’s allowed eleven runs and 16 baserunners in nine big league innings around a biceps/shoulder injury, and, worst of all, he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Ten apiece. Ouch.

The Yankees sent Kahnle to Triple-A in early June — he essentially lost his middle innings job to Holder — and, with Triple-A Scranton, he owns a 2.81 ERA (2.32 FIP) with 37.6% strikeouts and 10.6% walks in 16 innings. That’s good. Certainly better than what he did in his limited big league time this year. So it’s not like Kahnle has suddenly forgotten how to pitch, you know?

The big issue this year is fastball velocity. Kahnle’s heater averaged 98.1 mph last year and 97.0 mph the year before. This season it was down to 95.6 mph. The fastest pitch he threw with the Yankees this year checked in at 97.6 mph. That’s still below last year’s average fastball velocity. Minor league velocity reports can be unreliable, though they have Kahnle sitting 95-96 mph with the RailRiders.

On one hand, 95-96 mph is plenty good enough to get outs at the big league level. Holder’s fastball is averaging only 93.2 mph this season, for example. On the other hand, Kahnle is not exactly blessed with great command. He’s a pure grip it and rip it pitcher, and hey, that works too. Worked great for him last year. But Kahnle at 95-96 mph is a different animal than Kahnle at 98-99 mph. Especially since the velocity on his changeup is unchanged. The velocity gap between the two pitches is smaller and that makes both of them less effective.

Kahnle has been down in the minors long enough to delay his free agency, which I guess is good for the Yankees. I suspect they’d happily trade that extra year of control for a healthy and effective Kahnle at the big league level though. He was part of that big trade last season with the idea that he’d be a long-term bullpen piece. Instead, Kahnle has been a non-factor this season, and it’s unclear whether he’ll regain last year’s effectiveness at some point.

David Robertson

(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

Midseason Grade: B+

Ho hum, another typically strong David Robertson season. He’s basically the CC Sabathia of the bullpen at this point. Still very effective, still lots of folks seemingly ready to call him done any time he stumbles. Robertson had a rough patch in May but has otherwise been very good this season, pitching to a 3.09 ERA (2.47 FIP) with strikeout (30.5%) and walk (8.1%) rates right in line with his career norms. He is the same guy he’s always been.

Betances’ reemergence and Green’s overall effectiveness has allowed Boone to use Robertson in all sorts of situations. He’s brought him into the middle of an inning to escape a jam, used him as a seventh and eighth inning guy, and Robertson has even gone 2-for-2 in save chances on days Chapman was unavailable. Robertson has made 43 appearances this season. Here’s when he’s entered the game:

  • Sixth Inning: 4 times
  • Seventh Inning: 13 times
  • Eighth Inning: 17 times
  • Ninth Inning: 5 times
  • Extra Innings: 4 times

That is a man who is not married to a specific inning. Robertson was out of this world good after rejoining the Yankees last season — he allowed four runs in 35 innings after the trade — and he was great in the postseason. He hasn’t been quite that good this year, but he’s been very good overall. As good as he is, I still get the feeling Robertson is underappreciated. He’s a hell of a reliever.

Chasen Shreve

Midseason Grade: D

I suppose you could argue Shreve is meeting expectations. He owns a 4.54 ERA (5.22 FIP) with 28.8% strikeouts and 11.1% walks in 33.2 innings this season. From 2016-17, he pitched to a 4.37 ERA (5.06 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 11.2% walks in 78.1 innings. Shreve is the same guy right now that he’s been the last two years. Unfortunately, that makes him a replacement level reliever.

As the very last guy in the bullpen — and that’s what I think he is at this point, I think Cole has jumped him in the pecking order — Shreve is okay. He’s someone who takes a beating in blowout games, basically. The problem isn’t Shreve, really. It’s that Boone keeps using him in somewhat leveraged left-on-left matchup situations even though Shreve isn’t good against lefties. They’re hitting .239/.364/.556 (.386 wOBA) against him this year. Yuck.

The Yankees clearly like Shreve. He wouldn’t have stuck on the roster this long otherwise. And I get it. He’s a just turned 28-year-old southpaw with a history of missing bats. Guys like that are hard to find. If another team had Shreve and they designated him for assignment, I’d look at him as a potential reclamation project pickup. If Boone stops using Shreve as a left-on-left guy and starts using him as a mop-up man, he’ll be fine. It’d be fine. Just fine.

Adam Warren

Midseason Grade: B

Once again, Warren has been a boringly reliable Swiss Army Knife reliever this season. He did miss more than six weeks with a lat strain, which drags down his midseason grade, otherwise the guy has thrown 24.1 innings with a 1.85 ERA (2.94 FIP) and very good strikeout (28.4%) and walk (8.8%) rates. And he is what, the sixth best reliever in the bullpen? Yeah, that’ll play.

I get the sense Warren will take on increased responsibility in the second half. The injury threw a wrench into things in the first half and it seems Boone is still trying to figure out when exactly to use him. In the second half though, I think Warren will be used for more multi-inning stints in the middle of the game as the Yankees look to control Luis Severino’s workload and also try to shorten games by not letting their starter go through the lineup a third time.

Either way, Warren has again been a reliable bullpen arm who flies under the radar because the Yankees have so many good relievers. Missing all that time with the lat injury stinks, but you know what? It gave Holder an opportunity to emerge, and the Yankees are a better team now because of it. In that sense, Warren’s injury turned out to be a good thing. Now he’s healthy and again an effective do it all bullpen option.

The Yankees and Aaron Boone are being rewarded for their patience with Dellin Betances

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(Presswire)

If nothing else, Aaron Boone has shown he is relentlessly positive in his few short months as a big league manager. He enjoys wins and seems to quickly turn the page on losses, which are good managerial traits. The Yankees seem loose, they look like they’re having fun, and they’re winning lots of baseball games. The first few months of the Aaron Boone era have gone very well.

Boone has also shown that he has his players’ backs at all times, even when everyone else is throwing a dude under the bus. There is no better example of this than Dellin Betances. Betances completely lost the strike zone late last year and was unusable in the postseason. Then Dellin gave up a home run in his first appearance this season, and the second time out Kevin Pillar stole his way around the bases. It was ugly.

Many fans were ready to run Betances out of town. Saw it with my own eyes on social media and our comments. Boone? Boone stuck with Dellin the entire time. “We’ll continue to work with him, continue to believe in him, and continue to need him in big situations,” said Boone after the ugliness of the opening series in Toronto. It was easy to laugh at that given what was happening on the field, but Boone meant it.

Fast-forward to June, and now Betances has reestablished himself as the Eighth Inning Guy™ and is once again a dominant setup man. The 3.54 ERA leaves something to be desired, but, in 24 games since that opening series in Toronto, Betances has a 2.88 ERA (1.87 FIP) with 44.6% strikeouts, 9.9% walks, and 51.1% ground balls. He struck out the side on eleven pitches Saturday and you can see his confidence is back. The swagger is back.

“That’s probably the best I’ve felt … ever,” said Betances to Randy Miller following Saturday’s game. “I think my fastball is good, my breaking ball is good, and I’ve said it a couple times already: Even when things weren’t going as good (in April) when I was giving up a couple runs, it’s probably the best I’ve felt in a while.”

Betances credited bullpen coach Mike Harkey for helping spur on the turnaround — “Harkey is a guy who I rely on and I try to repeat everything that he tells me to do when I’m out there. I think I’ve been listening a little more,” he said — and chalked it up to improved fastball command, fewer breaking balls, and a better game plan.

“I felt like earlier on I probably wasn’t throwing my fastball as good command wise,” he said. “… At times I was throwing too many breaking balls. I think I’m doing a better job of mixing my pitches and having a better game plan and kind of trusting everything I have … Earlier in the year I felt like I was going out there and just throwing anything. My game plan wasn’t as good.”

There is no mystery with Dellin. He’s a fastball/curveball pitcher and, for a long time, it has been basically a 50/50 split. This all predates the team’s anti-fastball philosophy too. Betances was curveball heavy long before it was cool to be curveball heavy. His pitch usage over the years:

Two things stand out to me so far this season. One, Betances is throwing more strikes. I mean, duh. He’s thrown 51.1% of his pitches in the zone this year, up from 46.7% last year and 45.0% the year before. The MLB average is 48.0%. And two, more pitches in the zone means hitters have to actually swing against Betances. Last year he was so wild they stopped swinging and let Dellin work himself into trouble. That is no longer the case.

It sounds obvious — and it is — but gosh, throwing strikes makes a world of difference, especially for a dude like Betances. His stuff is so good that the hitter is on the defensive even in non-two-strike counts. How many times have we seen hitters buckle at the curveball and swing late on the fastball? When he’s right, Dellin can make hitters do funny looking things at the plate, and we’ve seen hitters do more funny looking things lately.

With Betances, it always feels like we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop, especially these last two years. We’ve seen him do the “great early in the season and bad late in the season” thing multiples times now, and it is entirely possible he’ll do it again. There’s not much else we can do other than wait and see how the season plays out. I know two things though. One, Betances has been awesome lately and he’s helping the Yankees win games. Good Betances is really good.

And two, if Dellin were as much of a headcase and as mentally weak as so many people seem to think, he wouldn’t have rebounded from last year to be this good again. The headcase and mentally weak stuff is straight garbage. Lazy trope by those unwilling to look for a real answer. Betances has a history of mechanical issues and control problems who had mechanical issues and control problems last year. And so far this year, he’s fixed whatever ailed him, thanks in part to the team’s patience.

Yankeemetrics: Beasts of East battle in the Bronx (May 8-10)

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(Newsday)

The Good Giancarlo
The Yankees epic and historic romp through the beasts of the AL continued in the series opener with another white-knuckle, drama-filled win over the Red Sox. Through Tuesday, it was their 16th win in the last 17 games (dating back to April 21), a run that is even more remarkable considering that all six teams they’ve faced during this extended stretch were in first or second place in their division at the start of the series.

Giancarlo Stanton sparked the offense early, homering in his first two at-bats to give the Yankees a 2-0 lead after four innings. The home runs couldn’t have been more different, too. The first one was a laser shot he scorched down the left field line and over the fence. It had a launch angle of 17 degrees, the lowest for any of his home runs this season. The second one was a majestic opposite-field shot that left his bat at an angle of 31 degrees, the highest for any homer he’s hit this year.

While Stanton has suffered through an inconsistent start in 2018, he’s had a few outbursts of offensive production, and this was the third time he’s launched two or more homers in a game so far. He’s just the fourth Yankee ever to have three multi-homer games within the team’s first 35 contests, joining A-Rod (2007), Roger Maris (1960) and Mickey Mantle (1956). Oh, and if those names/years sound familiar, it’s because each of the previous three guys went on to win the AL MVP that season.

After the Red Sox battled back to tie the game at 2-2, Aaron Judge took over the hero role when he laced a tie-breaking RBI single in the seventh inning off newest Yankee villain Joe Kelly. Prior to that at-bat, Judge was 0-for-6 with three strikeouts in his career against Kelly. And, though it’s hard to believe, that single was the first time Judge delivered a go-ahead hit in the seventh inning or later at Yankee Stadium.

As the Yankee bats were mostly silent aside from Stanton’s fireworks, Luis Severino shined on the mound, dominating the Red Sox with his ace-like stuff. Overcoming a shaky defense behind him, Sevy struck out 11 and walked none while allowing just two runs across six innings. He became the first Yankee with at least 11 strikeouts and no walks in a game against the Red Sox since Mike Mussina’s memorable near-perfecto on September 2, 2001.

Severino’s slider was nasty as usual (11 whiffs, 9 strikeouts), but more impressive was the increased usage and effectiveness of his changeup. He threw a season-high 24 changeups, showing excellent command of his offspeed stuff. As you can see below, he located nearly all of those changeups in the strike zone or just off the plate, keeping the hitters off-balance while generating six swings-and-misses and six foul strikes with the pitch.

Gritty, Gutty Brett Gardner
The unstoppable pinstriped freight train kept chugging along on Wednesday night, as the Yankees comeback mojo propelled them to yet another wild and crazy victory. It was their 17th win in their last 18 games, and over that span they’ve outscored their opponents by a whopping 65 runs. The only other years that the Yankees had an 18-game run that included at least 17 wins and a run differential of plus-65 or greater were 1953 and 1947 — and both of those seasons ending with a World Series celebration.

You really can’t describe these wins as shocking or stunning anymore — no lead is safe against this Yankees juggernaut. After erasing a 6-5 deficit with four runs in the eighth, this was their AL-best fourth win when trailing at the start of the eighth inning, and all four came in the last two weeks.

Perhaps the most impressive part of their scorching-hot run was that there was a different hero nearly every night. Through Wednesday, during the eight-game win streak, seven different players produced the game-winning run:

  • May 1: Gary Sanchez go-ahead homer in top of ninth
  • May 2: Giancarlo Stanton two-run homer in top of first
  • May 3: Aaron Judge go-ahead RBI groundout in top of ninth
  • May 4: Miguel Andujar walk-off single in ninth
  • May 5: Ronald Torreyes reaches on error in fifth, go-ahead run scores
  • May 6: Gleyber Torres walk-off homer in ninth
  • May 8: Judge go-ahead bases-loaded walk in seventh
  • May 9: Brett Gardner go-ahead triple in eighth
(AP)

Gardner’s heroics capped off a huge breakout game for the struggling leadoff hitter — who entered the game with a .127/.256/.127 line in his previous 18 games (79 plate appearances) — and then went 3-for-5 with two doubles and a triple. He was 1-for-6 with five strikeouts against Craig Kimbrel before knocking in the game-winning run on Wednesday.

#FunFact No. 1: The last Yankee (before Gardner) with a go-ahead triple in the eighth inning or later was Johnny Damon on June 20, 2006 against the Phillies.

#FunFact No. 2: Here’s a list of Yankees with at least three extra-base hits, including a triple, in a game against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium: Gardner, Bobby Brown (9/24/1948), Snuffy Stirnweiss (8/11/1946) and Charlie Keller (5/23/1941).

Judge then tacked on a couple insurance runs in that inning with a titanic two-run blast to center, sending the ball 429 feet with an exit velocity of 117 mph into Monument Park. It was the hardest-hit and the second-longest batted ball allowed by Kimbrel since Statcast tracking began in 2015.

(Newsday)

Bittersweet ending
The Yankees comeback mojo finally went dry on Thursday night, losing the series finale to the Red Sox despite the inevitable late-game rally. This time, however, they couldn’t overcome another bullpen implosion as their eight-game win streak and historic three-week stretch came to an end. The Yankees also had their 11-game home win streak snapped, which was their longest at the current Yankee Stadium.

Dellin Betances wore the goat horns in the loss, surrendering the game-losing homer to J.D. Martinez in the top of the eighth after tossing a perfect seventh inning. It was the fourth home run Betances has allowed in 16 innings this season — he gave up just three longballs in 59 2/3 innings last year. This was also the third time this season that Betances had come out for a second inning, and the results have been ugly: in the second inning of work, he’s allowed six runs on six hits across those three games. However, last year, in those same situations, he allowed zero runs in six games when coming out for a second inning of work.

CC Sabathia was rocked by the Red Sox in his worst start of the season, coughing up four runs on nine hits across four innings before the rain delay. The large lefty had been in vintage ace-like form for much of the season before this clunker, and entered the game riding a slew of favorable trends:

Starts ERA IP ER Runs
Thursday vs Red Sox 1 9.00 4 4 4
Entering the game
Since April 19 4 0.39 23 1/3 1 4
At Home in 2018 4 1.33 20 1/3 3 6
Vs Red Sox Since 9/29/16 5 1.08 33 1/3 4 4

Jonathan Holder was the unsung hero of the game, taking over for Sabathia after the rain delay and keeping the game within reach as he retired all six batters faced. Since being recalled from Triple-A on April 21 (when Adam Warren went on the DL), Holder has been terrific out of the ‘pen. In 8 2/3 innings, he’s allowed just one unearned run on two hits with seven strikeouts and a walk. In his first three appearances of the season before being sent down, he was rocked for an ugly .467/.500/.733 line, giving up seven runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings.

The good and bad of Dellin Betances so far in 2018

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(Elsa/Getty)

Coming into this new season Dellin Betances was the biggest unknown on the Yankees’ roster. He struggled throwing strikes late last year and it rendered him unusable in anything other than an emergency in the postseason, and no one really knew what to expect in 2018. Would he fix himself like he did after late struggles in 2016 and 2017? Or continue to have problems?

Through 21 team games the answer is … kind of both? Betances has had some good outings and bad outings, with the bad outings leaving a bigger dent in his season numbers. So far Dellin has a 6.23 ERA (5.26 FIP) with 15 strikeouts in 8.2 innings. To me, Betances does appear more comfortable and in control on the mound. There were times late last season he looked completely lost. I haven’t seen that yet this year.

In those 8.2 innings there are good signs and bad signs. Reasons to believe Betances will be just fine — better than fine, really, since it’s not like he was a generic middle reliever from 2014-16 — and reasons to believe more trouble is on the way. Four things stand out to me so far.

The Good: He’s throwing strikes

Betances has only walked three of the 38 batters he’s faced so far this season (7.9%) and he’s yet to hit a batter — Dellin hit eleven batters last season, seventh most in baseball behind six starters — so he’s been around the plate more often. It’s appeared that way to me watching the games and the numbers bear that out.

2016 Zone % 2017 Zone % 2018 Zone %
Fastball 51.9% 48.7% 58.3%
Breaking Ball 43.3% 44.9% 48.5%
Overall 47.0% 46.7% 51.6%

Throwing only 51.6% of your pitches in the strike zone sounds crummy, but the league average is only 47.7% this year, so it’s really not. (Last year the league average zone rate was 47.3%.)

It’s early. We’re only talking about 8.2 innings worth of pitches right now. So far though Betances has been more around the plate with both his fastball and breaking ball, and that was his big problem late last season. He didn’t have command problems last season. He had basic strike-throwing problems. Forget painting the corners. Dellin couldn’t throw the ball over the plate. He’s done a better job of it in the early going this year.

The Bad: He’s been homer prone

Betances has allowed three home runs in his 8.2 innings this year. He allowed three home runs in 63.2 innings last year, including the postseason. Now he’s allowed three in 8.2 innings this year. Hmmm. Here’s the weird thing: Betances has allowed three fly balls all season. All three have gone over the fence. HMMM.

Here are the three home run pitch locations and their game situations:

(Yes, I know Candelario is on the Tigers. I forgot to change TOR to DET before uploading the image and I don’t feel like putting it together again. My bad.)

Three fastballs out over the plate, two when the hitter was ahead in the count, and two that had no real impact on the outcome of the game. All three to the first batter of the inning too. After the Pillar homer Betances said he was “ambushed … just trying to groove one in there, and I didn’t think he would swing.” He retired the next three batters, so no harm no foul.

The three homers — the only three fly balls Betances has allowed this season — had a combined exit velocity of 108.4 mph, which is a good little poke. Last year Dellin allowed an average 89.5 mph exit velocity on fly balls and only two individual fly balls with an exit velocity over 100 mph. This year he’s already allowed three.

I’m not sure what to think about the home runs. We’re talking about three pitches here, and no, Betances won’t carry a 100.0% HR/FB rate all year. At the same time, is there something beyond general baseball randomness that explains the uptick in hard hit fly balls? Given that we’re talking about 8.2 innings here, I’m going to stamp this as “need to see more” before making any conclusions.

The Good: He’s getting swings and misses

Fifteen strikeouts in 8.2 innings is both excellent and not an out of the ordinary number for Betances. He has a 39.5% strikeout rate this year. It was 38.3% last year. The year before it was 42.1%. The year before that is was 39.5% and the year before that it was 39.6%. The strikeout rate is regular old Dellin and that’s a good thing. He’s still missing plenty of bats. The numbers:

2016 Swing % (Whiff %) 2017 Swing % (Whiff %) 2018 Swing% (Whiff %)
Fastball 47.3% (31.8%) 38.0% (33.0%) 41.7% (24.0%)
Breaking Ball 38.0% (50.2%) 31.6% (43.6%) 34.3% (50.0%)
Overall 42.0% (41.1%) 34.5% (38.2%) 37.1% (38.9%)

The swing-and-miss ability is still there in the early going. That’s good. Even after only 8.2 innings, I’d be pretty worried if any pitcher suddenly lost his ability to get swings and misses when his entire game is built around getting swings and misses. Betances is still generating empty swings like few others. He’s throwing more pitches in the zone too, remember. Pitches in the zone are easier to hit, yet his swing-and-miss hasn’t suffered. Good news.

The Bad: His fastball spin rate is down

For all the talk about Dellin’s velocity being down this year, his fastball is averaging 97.2 mph and it’s topped out at 99.7 mph. Last April he averaged 97.4 mph and topped out at 99.2 mph. The year before it was 97.2 mph and 100.0 mph, respectively. The velocity is right where it always is this time of year. Betances tends to reach his peak velocity in the summer months like most pitchers. We’ll see more 99s and 100s in a few weeks.

Spin rate is another matter though. Dellin has had a truly elite fastball throughout his career because he combines big velocity with a high spin rate. The more spin, the more “life” on the pitch, and the harder it is to square up. Here are his fastball spin rates:

April Spin Rate Full Season Spin Rate
2015 2,402 2,402
2016 2,497 2,505
2017 2,557 2,430
2018 2,294 N/A

The league average fastball spin rate has hovered right around 2,200 rpm since Statcast became a thing in 2015, and from 2015-17, Betances was well above that mark. So far this year his fastball has been essentially league average.

In 2015 and 2016, Dellin’s fastball spin rate in April basically matched his overall season spin rate. Last year though, there was a big decline, and that’s a red flag. Here are the month-by-month numbers:

  • April: 2,557 rpm
  • May: 2,512 rpm
  • June: 2,415 rpm
  • July: 2,406 rpm
  • August: 2,381 rpm
  • September: 2,354 rpm

Well that doesn’t look good. The spin rate on Betances’ fastball has declined every month since last April and the trend has continued this year. A low spin rate isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Low spin is conducive to ground balls. You don’t want to be league average though, where Dellin sits right now. You either want high spin (swings and misses) or low spin (grounders). Nothing in the middle.

Betances is 30 years old now with over 1,000 innings on his arm, plus he had some arm problems earlier in his career, most notably Tommy John surgery in 2009. The drop in spin could simply be a wear-and-tear thing. Or it could be a mechanical issue. I’m not sure. The drop in spin could explain the homers — again, all three came on heaters — though it’s still so early. The spin rate issue is definitely a #thingtowatch going forward.

* * *

Late last season Betances was untrustworthy because he couldn’t throw strikes. It wasn’t a command issue. It was a basic strike-throwing issue. He couldn’t get the ball over the plate all. This year Betances has been around the zone more often in the early going, and he’s still getting plenty of swings and misses. His spin rate is down though, and for whatever reason he’s been homer prone. Four weeks into the season, red flags still exist with Dellin, but there are some positives too.