Dellin Betances Archives - Page 3 of 32

Saturday Links: Pitch Clock, Martinez, Betances, Sanchez

January 20, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Only four more Saturdays without baseball. Pretty cool. The Grapefruit League is about a month away. Anyway, here’s some news and notes on this baseball-less Saturday.

MLBPA paving the way for pitch clock

According to Ken Rosenthal, the MLBPA has formally rejected commissioner Rob Manfred’s latest pace-of-play proposal. That paves the way for MLB to implement rule changes unilaterally, which is expected to happen. By rule, MLB can only implement last year’s proposal, which includes a 20-second pitch clock at all times and a limit of one mound visit per inning by the manager, a coach, or another player. A second visit necessitates a pitching change.

The new proposal that was rejected included an 18-second pitch clock with the bases empty and no pitch clock with runners on. MLB and the MLBPA will meet again next week to continue talking, but at this point, Rosenthal says the players are upset and have drawn a line in the sand. They’re expected to reject any proposal. Rosenthal also says players and agents are frustrated with MLBPA chief Tony Clark given how many concessions the union has made recently. That was bound to happen, I guess.

I’ve said this before, but I am all for a pitch clock and a limit on mound visits. There is a 20-second pitch clock in the minors and it doesn’t hurt the product at all. It’s barely noticeable. As for mound visits, well those are getting to be out of control. It seems like every pitch in the late innings of a postseason game requires a pitcher-catcher conference. These measures are not the solution for all of baseball’s problems, but they’ll help reduce the downtime within a game, and that is a-okay with me.

Yankees held private workout for Martinez

Last Saturday the Yankees held a private workout in Tampa for Cuban outfielder Julio Pablo Martinez, reports Ben Badler. The Yankees were first connected to Martinez, who Badler says “has talent on par with a first-round pick,” a few weeks ago. The Marlins and Rangers are also interested in signing him. (The Marlins brought him in for a private workout last week.) Here is 7+ minutes of batting practice:

Martinez, 21, is still going through the process of establishing residency and getting unblocked by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, so he is not yet eligible to sign. Interestingly enough, Badler says the Yankees have “limited bonus pool space available for 2017-18,” indicating most of the $3.5M in leftover Shohei Ohtani money is gone. Raimfer Salinas and Antonio Cabello must’ve received nice bonuses. Because of the bonus pool situation, Badler says Martinez may wait until July 2nd to sign with the Yankees so he can tap into their 2018-19 bonus pool.

Quick Notes: Betances, Sanchez

I’ve got two quick offseason player notes to pass along, so I might as well dump them here. Some random winter news:

Dellin Betances told George King he is working on his mechanics and fastball command this winter, because duh. “Last year I went back and forth between mechanics. I just got to focus on one delivery and repeat that. Obviously, for me, being taller it’s harder for me to repeat. I have to trust what I do in the offseason and take it into the season,” he said.
Gary Sanchez worked with strength and conditioning director Matt Krause this winter and has dropped weight, reports King. A few weeks ago Brian Cashman mentioned the Yankees believe Sanchez bulked up too much last offseason, so he’s working to correct that, which might help him do a better job blocking pitches. We’ll see.

Also, Baseball America posted a Yankees prospect podcast last week, so check that out. Thirty-three minutes of prospecty goodness. The podcast is free for all. No subscription necessary.

2018 Salary Arbitration Filing Day Updates

January 12, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Three arbitration-eligible Yankees. (Presswire)

Updated 1/12 at 6:07pm ET

Today is an important day on the offseason calendar. Today is the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to file salary figures. The player files what he feels he should be paid in 2018 while the team files what they feel he should be paid in 2018. Pretty simple, right?

The Yankees have eight arbitration-eligible players on the roster — they started the offseason with nine before jettisoning (and later re-signing) Erik Kratz — and among those eight are some very important core players. Here are the team’s arbitration-eligible players and MLBTR’s projected 2018 salaries:

Player	MLBTR	Actual	Diff	Status
Didi Gregorius	$9.0M	$8.25M	-$0.75M	Third Trip – Super 2
Sonny Gray	$6.6M	$6.5M	-$0.1M	Second Trip
Dellin Betances	$4.4M	$5.1M	+$0.7M	Second Trip
Adam Warren	$3.1M	$3.315M	+$0.215M	Third Trip
Aaron Hicks	$2.9M	$2.85M	-$0.05M	Second Trip
Tommy Kahnle	$1.3M	$1.3125M	+$0.0125M	First Trip
Austin Romine	$1.2M	$1.1M	-$0.1M	Second Trip
Chasen Shreve	$0.9M	$0.825M	-$0.075M	First Trip – Super 2
Totals	$29.4M	$29.2525M	-$0.1475M

Most arbitration-eligible players around the league will agree to a new contract today. Last year the Yankees had seven arbitration-eligible players and six signed before the filing deadline. Betances was the only exception. He and the Yankees wound up going to an arbitration hearing, the team’s first since 2008.

It’s important to note that even if the two sides do not agree to a contract today, they can still work out a contract of any size after filing salary figures. This isn’t a hard deadline that ends negotiations. That said, these days most teams take a “file and trial” approach, meaning once the two sides file salary figures, the team cuts off negotiations and they go to a hearing. That’s their way of putting pressure on the player to sign.

The Yankees are trying to get under the $197M luxury tax threshold this season, so every dollar spent on an arbitration-eligible player is a dollar they can not spend elsewhere. There is $29.4M in projected salaries above. That’s a lot. I wonder if the Yankees will take a very hard line approach during contract talks? Sign now for these terms, or we’ll go to a hearing and beat you like we beat Betances last year. That sorta thing. We’ll see.

We’re going to keep track of the day’s Yankees-related arbitration news right here, assuming nothing crazy like a long-term extension happens. I’d bet against it. That would screw up the luxury tax plan. The filing deadline is 1pm ET, though news is going to trickle through the afternoon, so keep checking back for updates.

Update (12:00pm ET): The Yankees and Kahnle have a one-year deal at $1.3125M, reports Jon Heyman. That’s a tick above the MLBTR projection. Kahnle earned $535,000 last season and was arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason. He can’t become a free agent until the 2020-21 offseason.

Update (12:00pm ET): Jerry Crasnick reports the Yankees and Hicks have an agreement at $2.825M. That is slightly below the MLBTR projection. Hicks can become a free agent after the 2019 season. He made $1.35M last year.

Update (1:52pm ET): Robert Murray reports that the Yankees and Warren have an agreement at $3.315M. That’s $215K more than the MLBTR projection. They’re now roughly $180K above MLBTR’s projections.

Update (4:44pm ET): The Yankees and Betances have agreed to a $5.1M salary for this coming season, reports Mark Feinsand. That’s quite a bit above his MLBTR projection. Good for Dellin. At least he won’t have to deal with any arbitration hearing drama this year.

Update (5:32pm ET): Jon Heyman has three updates. First is Gray, who will earn $6.5M in 2018 — $100K lower than his MLBTR projection. Second is Gregorius at $8.25M, a whopping $750K below projection. Third is Romine at $1.1M, $100K below projection.

All in all this leaves the Yankees nearly dead even with projections. The difference is currently less than $100K (in the team’s favor, for those interested).

Update (6:07pm ET): Shreve and the Yankees agreed to an $825K deal for next season, reports Ronald Blum. That’s slightly below the MLBTR projections. All told, the Yankees will pay their arbitration-eligible players $29.2525M in 2018. MLBTR projected $29.4M total.

Free agent prices and luxury tax plan give the Yankees several trade chip relievers

December 19, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

To date, the 2017-18 offseason has been dominated by free agent relievers and the luxury tax threshold. More relievers have signed Major League contracts (20) than all other positions combined (16), and both the Yankees and Dodgers have made moves to get under the $197M luxury tax threshold. So have the Giants to a lesser degree. They unloaded Matt Moore over the weekend.

The Yankees haven’t dipped their toe into the free agent reliever pool because there’s no need. They have Aroldis Chapman and David Robertson for the late innings, Chad Green as a multi-inning setup guy, Tommy Kahnle and Adam Warren in the middle innings, and Dellin Betances as a high-end reclamation project. That’s six of the seven bullpen spots, with plenty of young arms (Domingo German, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, etc.) for the final spot.

That doesn’t mean the free agent bullpen market doesn’t effect the Yankees. Free agent relievers are getting paid pretty well this winter, which I’m sure you noticed. It wasn’t long ago that statheads (like me) were saying you shouldn’t pay big for relievers because they’re so volatile, and while that volatility still exists, teams are no longer shy about paying relievers well. Starters are throwing fewer innings each year, making bullpens that much more important.

Here are some sample free agent reliever contracts handed out this offseason:

Bryan Shaw, Rockies: Three years at $9M per season.
Tommy Hunter, Phillies: Two years at $9M per season.
Juan Nicasio, Mariners: Two years at $8.5M per season.
Anthony Swarzak, Mets: Two years at $7M per season.

Could you imagine paying Swarzak $7M annually? Good gravy. I know he was great this past season — he had a 2.33 ERA (2.74 FIP) in 77.1 innings for the White Sox and Brewers — but he’s already 32 and he had a 4.70 ERA (4.26 FIP) in 130.1 innings from 2014-16, which sent him searching for work in Korea. One good year and bam, Swarzak signed for $14M total. What a world.

There are still several quality free agent relievers on the market — neither Wade Davis nor Greg Holland has signed, plus others like Seung-Hwan Oh, Matt Albers, Tony Watson, and Addison Reed are available — but most of the mid-range guys like Shaw and Hunter and Nicasio and Swarzak have already put pen to paper. Those guys have cashed in big and that’s awesome. Good for them. At least some MLBPA members are getting paid this winter.

The free agent reliever market could benefit the Yankees by making their bullpen pieces more attractive in trades. Would you rather give, say, Albers or Oh multiple years at $7M a pop, or trade something for Warren and his $3.1M projected salary, or Betances and his $4.4M projected salary? I suppose the Yankees shouldn’t rule out trading Robertson and his $13M salary either. How good will Robertson at $13M look when Davis gets Chapman money ($17M per season)?

There would be two goals here. One, add talent to the organization via trades. I know Betances had his walk problems this year, but given his track record and potential for excellence, would it be wrong to ask for an upper level arm and a lower level lottery ticket in a trade, plus maybe more? What about Warren? Could the Yankees get a Justin Wilson package for him, meaning two upper level arms they could plug into MLB roster as soon as 2018?

Secondly, trading a reliever would allow the Yankees to subtract payroll and get further under the $197M luxury tax threshold. Replacing Warren or Betances (or Robertson?) with a league minimum reliever like German or Heller or Holder would make it easier to upgrade the infield. It also might make the bullpen less effective, of course. The Yankees had such a hard time replacing Warren two years ago they had to trade to get Warren back, remember.

Brian Cashman and his staff are known to explore basically everything, and I’m sure they’re at least open to the idea of trading a reliever to help get under the luxury tax threshold. It doesn’t have to be now. It could happen in late-January or February, after all the viable free agent relievers are off the board and there are still plenty of teams looking for bullpen help. The Yankees would be in position to demand a lot in the trade. It’s simple supply and demand.

The Yankees are built around their offense and their bullpen. They’re going to hit a ton of dingers (dingers!) and score a lot of runs, and they’ll hand leads over to their deep bullpen. That’s the formula. And subtracting from the bullpen hurts the formula, which leads me to believe a reliever trade won’t happen unless the Yankees get an offer that’s just too good to pass up. Trading a reliever is an idea worth considering though, especially with the luxury tax plan in place and limited funds for another starter and infield help.

The Many Walks of Dellin Betances [2017 Season Review]

November 16, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

As is often the case, the Yankees remade their bullpen during the course of the 2017 season. They traded for David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle, and Chad Green also emerged as a trusted setup man. It happens every single year. The bullpen going into the postseason never looks like the Opening Day bullpen. That’s baseball.

Over the last four seasons Dellin Betances has been the one constant in New York’s bullpen. Closers came and went and middle relievers came and went a lot more, yet Betances remained. He led all relievers in innings (247) and strikeouts (392) from 2014-16, and ranked third in WAR (+8.6). Dellin was among the very best of the best.

This season Betances was pushed out of the Circle of Trust™ or, rather, he pushed himself out of the Circle of Trust™ by walking way too many hitters. He threw 59.2 innings with a 2.87 ERA (3.23 FIP) and 38.3% strikeouts this year, numbers that are objectively great. Now here is the bottom of the walk rate leaderboard among the 355 pitchers to throw at least 50 innings in 2017:

350. Justin Wilson: 14.1%
351. Alex Meyer: 14.4%
352. Tyler Glasnow: 14.4%
353. Carl Edwards Jr.: 14.5%
354. Adam Ottavino: 16.1%
355. Dellin Betances: 16.9%

Dead last. Highest walk rate in baseball. Betances walked 44 batters in those 59.2 innings and, to further exacerbate things, he also hit eleven batters. Only six pitchers hit more batters then Betances this year and all six are starters. Between the walks and hit batsmen, that’s 55 free baserunners in 59.2 innings. Brutal. Let’s review Dellin’s season.

An All-Star First Half

Betances was an All-Star this season! And deservedly so. In his first 26 appearances and 24.1 innings of the year, Betances pitched to a 1.11 ERA (1.35 FIP) with 46 strikeouts. He allowed an earned run on April 8th, in his second appearance of the season, and he didn’t allow another one until June 22nd, in his 25th appearance of the season. It was typical Betances. He even threw an Immaculate Inning along the way. Nine pitches, nine strikes, three strikeouts.

There’s no one else in baseball quite like Good Betances. He’s so big and he throws so hard, and he has that wicked breaking ball to go with it. I don’t know how anyone ever gets a hit off this guy.

Aroldis Chapman missed a month with a shoulder injury in the first half and, while he was sidelined, Betances stepped in as closer and went 6-for-6 in save chances. Usually I worry Dellin pitches too much. When he was married to the ninth inning, the problem was he didn’t pitch enough. At one point Betances made four appearances in the span of 24 days. A few too many times he sat in the bullpen being held back for the save situation while the wholly ineffective Tyler Clippard coughed things up. It was: annoying.

Betances is the only reliever selected to each of the last four All-Star Games and one of only four pitchers overall who can make that claim. Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Dellin Betances. Basically the three best starters in the world and Betances. It would be wrong to say Dellin was bad all season. He was lights out in the first half and he earned that All-Star Game selection.

A Walk-Filled Second Half

The walk problems first surfaced in early July, right before the All-Star break, when Betances walked eleven of 22 batters faced across a five-appearance span. Then he settled back down and walked only seven of the next 78 batters he faced, which spanned 20 appearances. It appeared those extreme walk problems were only temporary.

Chapman lost the closer’s job due to ineffectiveness in late August and Betances again stepped in to close, not Robertson. He nailed down his first four save opportunities, but in the fifth, Dellin walked the generally un-walk-able Tim Beckham with two outs, then hung a curveball Manny Machado swatted for a walk-off homer.

That was pretty bad. It was also the end of Betances’ time as closer. Chapman resumed ninth inning duty and Betances was relegated to mop-up duty. Joe Girardi would pick and choose his spots, though often had a short leash. Two batters was the standard leash. After the walk-off homer, Betances walked six batters in his final seven innings of the season.

Understandably, Girardi had an extremely short leash with Betances in the postseason. He was pretty great in Game One of the ALDS (three up, three down, three strikeouts) and again in Game Two of the ALDS, at least in his first two innings of work. He retired the first six men he faced before the Indians scored in his third inning of work, when he was looking a little run down. Betances was pulled after two walks in ALDS Game Four and again after two walks in ALCS Game Three. He wasn’t the very last guy in the bullpen, but he was close.

As the season progressed and it was clear Betances was having trouble throwing strikes, opponents took a very simple approach against him. They didn’t swing. Microphones even caught Bryce Harper during the All-Star Game saying there is no need to swing against Betances. Opponents bet that he couldn’t throw three strikes before he threw four balls, and if he did, it meant he was locked in and they wouldn’t hit him anyway. A graph:

Just don’t swing. And the weird thing? Betances threw (slightly) more pitches in the zone as the season progressed. His season 46.4% zone rate was exactly league average. The MLB average was 46.4% pitches in the zone this year. Exactly league average.

That’s an average though, and Dellin’s walk problems seemed to come and go on a game-by-game basis. One day he’d struggle to get the ball even close to the plate, then next time out he’d pump strikes and dominate. The bad days were very bad. There were still good days mixed in though. That’s part of what made it so frustrating. Betances would still go out once or twice a week and look like the best reliever in baseball.

With Betances, this is all mechanical. He has a very long history of control problems. In 2012, the year before the Yankees decided to move him to the bullpen, Betances walked 99 batters and 15.7% of batters faced in 131.1 minor league innings. His career minor league walk rate is 12.3%. It’s not like this is a control artist who suddenly lost the plate. This is a guy with a history of control problems having control problems.

Betances being untrustworthy absolutely had an impact in the postseason. Girardi had lean on Robertson more than I think he would’ve liked, ditto Green and Kahnle. Good Betances could’ve taken some innings away from those guys, and who knows how things play out? Then again, the Yankees couldn’t score a run in Houston to save their lives, and to me that caused their ALCS downfall. Not an overworked setup crew. Whatever. Bottom line, Betances walked too many guys this season. Way, way too many guys, and it hurt the Yankees in multiple ways.

2018 Outlook

I would be surprised if the Yankees traded Betances this offseason. Brian Cashman is not one to sell low, and Dellin’s trade value is the lowest it’s been since his 2014 rookie season. The walk problems were extreme this year and he’s also making good money through arbitration. A walk prone non-closer reliever who is making something close to closer money and is two years from free agency won’t generate a huge return.

The Yankees figure to keep Betances and try to rebuild him, both his mechanics and his confidence, which is something they’ve had to do before in the minors. Now they have to do it in the big leagues. The Yankees are in position to go into next season with Dellin as the sixth reliever in their seventh man bullpen, so it’s not like they’ll need him to soak up high-leverage innings from the get-go. They can work to get him back to form, and that’s the goal. Get the Good Betances back.

MLBTR’s arbitration projections and a potential Didi Gregorius extension

November 1, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Over the next few weeks and months, the Yankees and every other team will tweak their roster in an effort to contend in 2018. Some teams are more serious about contention than others. The Yankees are ready to win, they showed it this year, and they’ll try to do it next season while getting under the $197M luxury tax threshold.

A few weeks ago Matt Swartz at MLB Trade Rumors posted his annual arbitration salary projections, and because the Yankees have a large arbitration class — nine players total, including several key contributors — their salaries will be a big factor in getting under the luxury tax threshold. These players are a bargain relative to what they’d get on the open market, though their salaries add up. Here are the arbitration projections:

Didi Gregorius: $9.0M (third time eligible as Super Two)
Sonny Gray: $6.6M (second time)
Dellin Betances: $4.4M (second time)
Adam Warren: $3.1M (third time)
Aaron Hicks: $2.9M (second time)
Tommy Kahnle: $1.3M (first time)
Austin Romine: $1.2M (second time)
Chasen Shreve: $900,000 (first time as Super Two)
Erik Kratz: $600,000 (second time)

Swartz’s model is pretty darn accurate overall. It has trouble with outlier players — Tim Lincecum damn near broke the thing when he went into his first arbitration year with two Cy Youngs — though it gets us in the ballpark and often much closer. Let’s dive into the projections a bit.

1. It’s time to consider a Gregorius extension. Didi has emerged as a true core player for the Yankees. He’s an above-average hitter and an above-average defender, and he’s a big part of the clubhouse culture. Gregorius can become a free agent following the 2019 season, and I think it’s time the Yankees start thinking about signing him long-term. He’s only 27 and quality in-their-prime shortstops are awfully hard to find.

The Jean Segura extension is a perfect benchmark for Gregorius. Segura signed his five-year, $70M deal earlier this year, two years prior to free agency at age 27, the exact same point of his career as Gregorius is right now. Look at the numbers:

Segura in year prior to extension: .319/.368/.499 (126 wRC+) and +5.0 WAR
Gregorius in year prior to extension: .287/.318/.478 (107 wRC+) and +3.9 WAR

Segura career: .280/.319/.396 (91 wRC+) and +8.6 WAR
Gregorius career: .266/.313/.413 (94 wRC+) and +11.5 WAR

Segura had the better platform year prior to signing his extension, though Gregorius has the better body of work overall. That five-year extension worth $70M is the benchmark for Didi. The market has been set.

The problem with an extension is the luxury tax. If Gregorius gets the $9M arbitration projection, he counts as $9M against the luxury tax threshold. Give him the Segura extension, and he counts as $14M (the average annual value of the contract) against the luxury tax threshold, and saving $5M is a big deal. Then again, signing Didi now could equal tens of millions in savings later. An extension has to be a serious consideration.

2. Betances and the Yankees might be in for a messy hearing again. Had Betances won his arbitration hearing last year, he could’ve been looking at a $6.5M to $7M projection this offseason, and we might have been talking about him as a non-tender candidate right now. Instead, the Yankees won, and you can see how arbitration savings add up.

Dellin wins last year: $5M in 2017 + $6.5M guesstimate in 2018 = $11.5M total
Yankees win last year: $3M in 2017 + $4.4M projected in 2018 = $7.4M total

That $2M in savings last year turns into $4.1M in savings from 2017-18. Arbitration uses the prior year’s salary as a baseline for a raise, so any savings compound over the years. Last year’s arbitration hearing win over Betances may end up saving the Yankees close to $10M from 2017-19. That’s a big chunk of change.

Last year’s arbitration hearing was reportedly ugly, uglier than these things usually are, and team president Randy Levine only made things worse when he ripped Dellin in a conference call afterward. I have no idea whether there is still any bad blood between the two sides, but I suppose another hearing is possible this year.

And here’s the thing: Betances still has a really good case. All the walks this year won’t hurt him much in arbitration because the system isn’t built that way. Saves and strikeouts count. Dellin doesn’t have many saves, but he struck out 100 batters yet again this season, he finished with a sub-3.00 ERA (2.87 to be exact), and he went to his fourth straight All-Star Game. Those are all points in his favor. I’m not sure how this will play out. Whatever happens, hopefully it’s not as ugly as last year.

3. Shreve might stick around until Spring Training. The Yankees spent last offseason and pretty much the entire pre-deadline regular season looking for a reliable left-handed reliever, and they came up empty. I get the sense they’re going to spend the winter looking for a lefty again. For now, Shreve is the in-house option, and his $900,000 projected salary is nothing.

Keep in mind arbitration-eligible players are on non-guaranteed contracts. They can be released in Spring Training and only be paid 30 days or 45 days termination pay, depending when they get cut. The Yankees could sign Shreve, keep him around, see if they come up with a better lefty, and if they do, they could drop him for a fraction of his salary in camp. Harsh, but it happens every year around the league. It’s easy to think Shreve, who is out of minor league options, will be a 40-man roster casualty this winter. Don’t be surprised if he sticks around though.

4. Kratz is a goner. Obvious statement is obvious. The Yankees acquired Kratz to be the third catcher in September only because Kyle Higashioka was injured at the time. He’ll be the very first player dropped from the 40-man roster once space is needed, which will be later this month when the roster has to be set for the Rule 5 Draft. Kratz won’t even make it to the non-tender deadline. Such is the life of a journeyman. Hey, at least he got to hang around with the team during the postseason. He traveled with the club all through the ALDS and ALCS.

5. My estimates were pretty good, actually. A few weeks back I looked at the 2018 payroll situation with regards to the luxury tax. I estimated $25M to $30M for the arbitration eligible players, not including Kratz or Shreve, and Swartz’s model projects this group at $28.5M. Hey, I’m getting kinda good at this.

Add that $28.5M projection to the other contract commitments as per my post a few weeks ago, and we get $163.5M already on the books for next season. It’ll drop to $141.4M should Masahiro Tanaka opt out, which most RAB readers expect to happen. Point is, the Yankees will have about $35M under the $197M luxury tax threshold to play with this winter, assuming Tanaka sticks around. If he doesn’t, it’s closer to $60M. Having that much wiggle, to me, means the Yankees should get serious about signing Didi long-term.

Glow and Grow

October 22, 2017 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

Before we begin, a sincere thanks to you, dear readers, for following along during the season and the playoffs. We all appreciate your day in, day out support and couldn’t do any of this without you. Please continue to read, share, and support the–frankly–great work that goes on here. Yankees Only.

Reflection and feedback are key to our growth in anything we do. Whether we’re students or professionals in whatever field, we don’t move forward unless we take stock of what’s happened, how it happened, why it happened, and what to do next. When the Yankee organization goes through this process, they’ll have plenty to be happy about.

I said it all year. You said it all year. Everyone said it all year. This was not supposed to be ‘the year’ for the Yankees. This was supposed to be a year in which they won 85 games if everything clicked right. Everything clicked way right and they won 91 games and took one of the two best teams in the AL to seven games in the ALCS. Despite the repetition, I don’t think this can be said enough. What the Yankees did this year is nothing short of shocking in the best possible way.

They led the league in homers. They were second in runs. Top three in AVG/OBP/SLG. Their pitchers were third in ERA and fourth in strikeouts.

Aaron Judge? An MVP type season. Gary Sanchez? A 24 year old catcher with 30 homer power and the ability to throw out nearly 40% of base stealers. Luis Severino? A Cy Young caliber season. Chad Green? The next Dellin Betances. Greg Bird? A great playoff run to inspire hope for 2018. Clint Frazier? Forced his arrival early and showed flashes of brilliance in his cup of coffee.

What was the worst thing that happened to this team? Michael Pineda’s injury? As sad as it was to see Big Mike go down, they didn’t miss him. Matt Holliday’s second half of doom? It didn’t sink the team. Chris Carter? Total disaster, but they recovered.

2017, in so many ways, was glowing for the Yankees. They do have things to improve, mainly Dellin Betances remembering he’s Dellin damn Betances and fixing whatever ailed him for the last month or so of the season. They have to figure out their third base situation and the outfield logjam.

For this team, there is room to grow. For this team, the future is bright. We got an unexpectedly great taste this year, and hopefully, this is just the appetizer. While baseball will break your heart more often than not, this team looks to be set up for long-term success.

The World Series or bust mentality has certainly gone away in the last few years, and that’s a good thing. Despite that, expectations were the lowest for this team than they had been in years. Not only did the Yankees beat those expectations, they shattered them. If anyone–friend, family, foe–tells you that this year was a disappointment, a failure, laugh at that person. This was probably the most fun season the Yankees have had since 2009 and there should be many more just like around the corner.

The optimal bullpen usage for yet another winner-take-all

October 11, 2017 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

The Yankees will play on Wednesday just their sixth game of the postseason, yet it will be their second winner-take-all. Unlike the first one, this game will likely ride more on the starting pitchers with the performances of CC Sabathia and Corey Kluber looming large.

However, with the way Joe Girardi has managed his bullpen over the last eight days, we have seen a variety of different game options after the starter. In their last two wins, it’s been ‘Rely on the starter and then go to the big guns.’ The win over the Twins was the routine ‘Get 26 outs of top four relievers’ game. You know, basic stuff we see all the time.

And we’ve also gotten a taste of every reliever in this series outside of Jordan Montgomery, who will likely be the long man in late extra innings on Wednesday.

So with that in mind, here’s my take on the optimal use of the pen.

1. Make the same decision with CC as in Game 2: Girardi caught flak for many things after Game 2. Rightfully so. But pulling Sabathia early wasn’t as big a mistake. You only have to go back to the last Monday of the regular season for a game where Sabathia was left in a little too long and let the opposing team back in the game.

And this time, the Yankees have a more rested bullpen to get the final few innings, especially if Sabathia can get two times through the order. Once you’re into the fifth or the sixth, CC should probably be batter-to-batter except in the extremely unlikely case of a 6+ run lead.

2. If Chad Green warms up early, he needs to come in early: This one is simple and worked to a tee in the Wild Card Game. Girardi got Green hot in the first and then went to him and rode him into the third. With four days off, Green should be able to do something similar if the situation calls for it.

But if Green gets hot in those first few innings, he better come in or he likely goes to waste. Green warmed up in the second and third innings in Game 2 but didn’t come in until the sixth. That’s a good 80-plus minutes or so after sitting down. It’s no wonder he seemed off.

We saw the same thing with Alan Busenitz in the Wild Card Game. I know, I know, not nearly as reliable a reliever. But the Twins got him warm in both the first and second inning and he didn’t come in until there were bases loaded and two outs in the seventh. That’s a lot of downtime and it thus makes sense that he threw four straight balls to walk in a run.

So hopefully Girardi doesn’t repeat this mistake. It’s better off skipping Green if he warms while CC gets out of early trouble than having Green warm, throw a ton of warmup pitches over the course of a few innings and then sit, just to come in off of his game.

3. Ride Robertson, Kahnle and Chapman (duh): At this point, I have no idea what the Yankees can get out of these three, but they need to seize every last drop in Game 5. A Houston series or beyond is irrelevant right now.

Here are their lines through five games:

Robertson: 3 G, 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K, 87 pitches
Kahnle: 3 G, 5 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 59 pitches
Chapman: 3 G, 4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K, 81 pitches

Kahnle’s thrown fewer pitches (and those numbers!) but also pitched most recently. Are two days off enough for full throttle Robertson and Chapman? You have to figure Chapman can get you at least three outs. Robertson, too. Between the three, they should be able to get the last four innings. Maybe five.

How do you tell who’s up for what? That’s gotta be a gut feel for Girardi, who needs to be willing to pull them too early rather than too late. You’ve still got Adam Warren, Masahiro Tanaka and Sonny Gray after them if needed. But we should see at least Chapman at some point and probably all three of these big guns.

4. Avoid Betances: Dellin Betances can’t come into this game. He just can’t. It’s tough to see Betances struggling like this. His command just isn’t there and he needs to be at the very back of the bullpen. Probably behind Montgomery and Jaime Garcia. Would you feel comfortable with him in extras? Not ahead of Warren or one of the starters.

The Baseball America podcast brought up the question of whether he should even be on a possible ALCS roster and it’s unfortunate that it’s a valid question to raise. But until the ALCS roster is something worth discussing, Betances shouldn’t be pitching, even in a blowout.

5. Get by without the starters until extras: It’s really tempting to go with Tanaka after how he looked on Sunday. However, you never know how someone who hasn’t relieved will react to that situation. With the depth of this bullpen, the Yankees can survive without finding out what they can get from Tanaka or Gray (or Severino) until extra innings. If Sabathia struggles, Green and Warren are fine long men to get you to the fourth/fifth. Once you’re in extras, it’s all hands on deck in a pure scramble.