Archive for Derek Jeter
Mailbag: Peavy, Mustelier, Jeter, Teixeira, Mo
Posted by: | CommentsKind of a long mailbag this week, with five questions that cover everything from trade candidates to prospects to historical comparisons. Remember to use the Submit a Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything, mailbag questions or otherwise.
(AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Peter asks: Mike, you wrote up Jake Peavy as a trade candidate on MLBTR a few weeks ago. Do you see the Yanks possibly targeting him in July? If so, what’s a fair price?
Here’s the link to that MLBTR post. Peavy, 30, has been one of the very best pitchers in baseball this season, pitching to a 1.89 ERA (2.22 FIP) with 7.57 K/9 (22.6 K%) and 1.20 BB/9 (3.6 BB%) in 52.1 IP across seven starts. He’s been absolutely phenomenal, no doubt about it, but there are still some red flags.
For one, Peavy’s recent injury history is quite scary. He’s been on the DL five times in the last four years, including lengthy stints for an elbow strain (2009), an ankle strain (2009), shoulder surgery (2010), and shoulder inflammation (2011). The shoulder surgery was not a typical labrum or rotator cuff issue, he torn his right lat muscle right off the bone. The injury is rare and the medical procedure so unique that the recovery timetable was completely unknown. Peavy is showing now that he’s healthy, but the injury stuff has to be in the back of everyone’s mind.
Statistically there’s not much to worry about. He’s always been a fly ball pitcher but now he’s taken it to the extreme, with a 28.7% ground ball rate on the season. That explains his .234 BABIP to a certain extent and even though not every fly ball is hit deep, you have to assume his 2.8% HF/FB rate is going to correct at some point. That’s insanely low. Peavy’s salary — $17M this year with a $22M option for 2012 ($4M buyout) — is quite high as well.. I mentioned Erik Bedard as a trade comp in the MLBTR post, meaning one top-ten prospect (in a farm system, not all of baseball) and another Grade-C secondary piece could work as a trade bounty. The Yankees could have interest, and thankfully we have a few months to see if Peavy holds up physically and can maintain his performance before the deadline.
Willie and many others asked: Is it time to start getting a little excited about Ronnie Mustelier?
(Rudy C. Jones/MiLB.com)
I was surprised by how many people asked about Mustelier following his promotion to Triple-A earlier this week. We must have gotten at least ten questions about him, but I guess that’s what happens when a player hits .351/.397/.550 in 295 plate appearances since signing last summer.
Just some real quick background info: Mustelier is 27 years old (28 in August), short (5-foot-10), kinda fat (210 lbs.), a right-handed hitter, and versatile (has played second, third, and the outfield corners). He spent a number of years playing in Cuba before defecting, and as a hitter he makes consistent contact (13.2 K%) but doesn’t walk much (6.4 BB%) or steal bases (12-for-18). The Yankees like Mustelier enough that they sent him to the Arizona Fall League last year, where he hit .344/.354/.516 in 16 games while missing time with injury. Here’s some video.
The most important thing to understand is that Mustelier has been very old for his level since signing. This is an older guy pounding young pitchers and that can skew the results. The Yankees have done a good job getting him to Triple-A quickly so they can evaluate him against the best pitching in the minors, though I wouldn’t expect to see him in the big leagues anytime soon. Baseball America didn’t even have Mustelier on their 80-player Yankees prospect depth chart in the 2012 Prospect Handbook, so there’s a whole lot of unknown here. His versatility is a plus, but we need to see another few hundred minor league at-bats to know if there’s anything worthwhile here.
Arad asks: Had this argument with my brother, who is the better player over their careers using everything, Jeter or Honus Wagner? Thanks Mike!
Wagner is the greatest shortstop in baseball history and it’s not all that close. Obviously it was a much different era, but he hit .325/.392/.462 during his 16-year career despite not officially joining the big leagues until age-27. That’s worth 110.0 bWAR and only one other shortstop is over even 75 career bWAR (Cal Ripken Jr. at 90.9). Jeter is at 69.4 bWAR and counting. No version of WAR is perfect, but the gap between Wagner and everyone else is impossible to ignore.
Jeter is very clearly the best shortstop in Yankees history and is in the conversation for a top five spot all-time with Wagner, Ripken, Ozzie Smith, Arky Vaughan, and Luke Appling. Robin Yount and Alex Rodriguez deserve acknowledgement as well, though they both spent significant portions of their careers at other positions. Wagner’s the best shortstop ever though, very hard to dispute that.
(AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)
Alex asks: Mike, I read all the pieces you wrote about Mark Teixeira. One thing, which you addressed, slightly still interests me. Since Tex is a switch hitter, it seems like hitting righties from the right side is out of the question. But isn’t everyone a “switch hitter” to a degree? I bet A-Rod could turn around and produce a poor line from the left as well. Has any switch hitter ever became a one-side hitter? Will it hurt to try?
Here are those three posts on Teixeira (part one, two, three, four). I don’t know of any players who successfully dropped switch-hitting this late in their careers. Lots of guys stop switch-hitting in the minors, including Frankie Cervelli and Eduardo Nunez, but that’s very early in their careers. A lot of players mess around with switch-hitting in batting practice and may be able to survive on athleticism in a game situation, but I’d put money against it.
Teixeira’s been switch-hitting his entire life, going all the way back to high school. The guy has never been at the platoon disadvantage at a high level and he’s never seen a breaking ball that breaks away from him. If he were to stop hitting from the left side, he wouldn’t magically replicate his performance against lefties as a righty (.397 wOBA) as a righty against righties. If Teixeira’s offensive problems become so severe that dropping switch-hitting is being seriously discussed, it’s a transition that would have occur during the offseason and in Spring Training. I don’t see any way you could ask him to do that midseason and be productive. You’re setting him up for failure both short and long-term that way.
Jon asks: I literally got physically ill when I heard about Mariano Rivera‘s torn ACL. The question is does Mo fit into the new budget? Do they bring him back next year at $10-15 million if it costs them Cole Hamels?
Well the new budget doesn’t kick in until 2014 unless ownership decides to implement next season. That would suck. I can’t imagine any scenario in which Rivera gets a two-year contract after this season, not at his age and not coming off a major injury. In that sense they could pay him whatever and still sign Hamels knowing that Rivera and his salary will be gone in 2014, when the payroll tightens up. It would be a major surprise if Mo’s next contract somehow extends beyond next season.
I am curious to see how negotiations with Rivera play out this winter. Are the Yankees going to pay him the $15M+ next year just because he’s Mariano Rivera? Or will they try to scale it back a bit, maybe $10-12M given his age and injury? Considering that they offered Andy Pettitte eight figures this past December after he sat at home for a year, I’m willing to bet they’ll have no problem paying Mo something similar to, if not in excess of his current salary.
Mailbag: Oswalt, Liriano, 2014, Jeter
Posted by: | CommentsGot five questions this week but only four answers because I lumped two of them together. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar whenever you want to send us anything, mailbag questions or otherwise.
(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
Steve asks: With the news that Michael Pineda is gone for the season and the way Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia are performing, can Roy Oswalt be an option for the rotation?
Sure, I definitely think he’s option. You have to be careful not to fall in love with the name though, because Oswalt is not the guy he used to be with the Astros. He has two degenerative discs in his back and has openly talked about retirement, plus he’s expressed a preference to play close to his Mississippi home. Oswalt has never pitched in the DH league full-time and has always been a guy that relied more on limiting walks (2.09 BB/9 and 5.6 BB%) and getting ground balls (47.3%) thank missing bats (7.35 K/9 and 19.8 K%).
I think Andy Pettitte‘s return has set the market price for Oswalt, a quality older pitcher voluntarily spending time away from the game. If the Yankees could get him on a low-risk minor league deal that pays him $2-3M if he makes the team, by all means do it. Heck, I’m sure he and Pettitte are pals after their time in Houston together, maybe that gives him more of a reason to join the Yankees. I just can’t see guaranteeing the guy anything without getting him in camp and having him throw to batters in the minors, proving that he still has something to offer.
Potter asks: If the Twins were willing to do it, would the Yankees think about a Francisco Liriano for Hughes trade? They both seemed to be going down the same path with their respective ball clubs and maybe a change of scenery would help. It can’t be much worse then what’s happening now.
Liriano’s been very bad this year — 22 runs and 39 baserunners in 16.1 IP with more walks (13) than strikeouts (12) — and the Twins took advantage of yesterday’s off-day to skip his turn in the rotation. I have zero confidence that Hughes can be an effective starter but I do think he can be a pretty good reliever because he is still able to blow his fastball by hitters in hitter’s counts. I have no faith in Liriano’s ability to be competent in any role, plus his salary is substantially higher ($5.5M vs. $3.2M). I’ll keep the “maybe he won’t suck as a reliever” guy rather than trade him for the “he’s awful at everything he does on a baseball field” guy. It’s been too long since Liriano was effective.
Grant asks: With Hughes pitching so far below expectations, Pineda out with an uncertain future, and Garcia, Pettitte, and Hiroki Kuroda all likely gone after 2012, what do you think the odds are the front office abandons the austerity plan and goes after Zack Greinke or Cole Hamels? As they get as close as they are to free agency, you have to think they’ll at least test it. Is it possibly contingent on Manny Banuelos‘ development?
Tyler asks: In your perfectly ideal situation, what do you picture as the Yankees roster these next few years to get under the luxury tax? Along the same lines, which prospects do you think are most important to develop in big leaguers to fit the 2014 and beyond Yankees?
(Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
I don’t expect the 2014 payroll plans to change after Pineda’s injury but I would not be surprised if they still pursued Hamels*. There’s a lot of money coming off the books both this offseason and next, and he is by far the best hope to add an elite hurler to the rotation. The Dodgers will definitely provide some stiff competition, but it’s doable. The problem is that the Yankees would have to skimp elsewhere, particularly in at least one corner outfield spot, the bullpen, and basically the remaining three-fifths of the rotation.
Unless you’re talking about a true cornerstone player, someone like Troy Tulowitzki or Evan Longoria or Matt Kemp, one injury should not throw a team completely off the rails. Especially an injury to a one-in-five starting pitcher and especially not the Yankees. Guys like Banuelos, David Phelps, Jose Campos, and Adam Warren are that much more important following Pineda’s injury because they are going to have to contribute something as starters, relievers, or trade bait. Same deal with Mason Williams and Tyler Austin as outfielders. The 2014 plan was going to take some creativity even before Pineda’s injury, now it’s just that much more difficult.
* Forget about Greinke, they’ve already declared him unfit to pitch in our fine city.
Alan asks: I just wanted to know your opinions on what you think realistic expectations are for Derek Jeter‘s numbers for the rest of the year. I admit, before the season started, I said I would be happy if he hit .280 this year. Now, do you guys think he could actually hit .310 this year? I can’t believe I’m saying this, but can he really approach his 2009 numbers at the ripe old age of 38? Thanks!
Well, I know for sure that he will not maintain his .420/.442/.642 batting line all season. Derek’s good, but he ain’t that good. I was thinking the same thing before the season, that a .280 average a .350-ish OBP would be fantastic. Now? He looks so good and is driving the ball so well that you can’t help but be optimistic. It’s not like he’s beating out infield singles and just slapping some ground balls through holes, the Cap’n is flat out raking. Line drives all over the field.
Jeter hit .334/.406/.465 in 634 at-bats back in 2009. He’s at 81 at-bats now, so to finish the season with a .334 average, he’ll still have to hit .322 the rest of the season. A .465 SLG would require a .439 SLG the rest of the way. I have a hard time expecting anyone to hit .320+ over any prolonged period of time, but can Jeter hit .300/.360/.430-ish from here on out? I definitely think that’s possible. Without questions, Derek’s resurgence as been the most exciting development over the last 12 months or so.
An appreciation of Jeter’s return to MVP form
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(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Like I’m sure many of you, I thought Derek Jeter was getting dangerously close to being done last summer. He had not hit much since the start of 2010 and it was obvious watching him everyday that his hitting skills had deteriorated. Jeter was taking ugly swings at breaking balls, indicating that he was starting his bat early to catch up to the fastball. He wasn’t working the count like he had in the past; it just wasn’t the same guy. At his age, decline is normal. Boy was I wrong though.
Jeter has been, by far, the Yankees’ best player this season and one of their three or four best hitters since coming off the DL last Independence Day. He worked with Gary Denbo — currently a scout for the Yankees after spending years coaching in the minor league system and even one year of service as the big league hitting coach — to correct some mechanical flaws while away from the team. Denbo and Jeter go way back, and he was able to get the Cap’n to just stay back on the ball a bit better. Just wait a bit more before swinging. The adjustment brought that sweet inside-out swing back as well as Jeter’s historically great offensive production (relative to position).
Everyone loves to use the 3,000th hit game as a starting point for Jeter’s turn-around because it makes for a great story, but his resurgence started right when he came off the DL last summer. He had doubles in three straight games leading up the 3,000th hit game after hitting just nine doubles in his first 63 games of the season, and overall he’s hit .347/.394/.487 in 393 PA since coming off the DL. That isn’t too far off from his .334/.406/.465 effort in 2009, when he finished third in the MVP voting and was the team’s best player. The Jeter of old is back, it’s not just old Jeter.
Despite his struggles in 2010 and early-2011, Derek never did stop mashing left-handers. He tagged them for a .315/.396/.462 batting line in 318 PA during that time compared to just .246/.309/.311 in 714 PA against righties. The dominance of left-handers hasn’t stopped, so most of his improvement has come against same-side pitchers. Since coming off the DL, Jeter has hit .302/.358/.396 in 276 PA against righties. The power output hasn’t really been there, but that was never his forte anyway. With some help from Texas Leaguers, let’s compare Jeter’s spray charts against right-handers leading up to the DL stint and since the DL stint. Here’s Derek against righties in the year and half leading up to the calf problem…
Most of Jeter’s damage was done the other way with lots of dinky little ground balls hit to the left side of the infield. Depending on your definition of deep, there’s anywhere from 8-12 balls hit deep to left and center fields. That’s out of 548 balls in play against righties. Now let’s look at Jeter’s spray chart against right-handers since coming off the DL last June…
Again, depending on what you consider a ball hit deep to the outfield, there are something like 6-10 balls hit to deep left and center fields out of 254 balls in play. The exact number doesn’t matter, just the fact that Jeter has been driving the ball with authority to left side of the field more than he had before getting hurt. That’s because he’s waiting just a tiny bit longer before swinging thanks to Denbo. Compared to the previous chart where most hits went to shallow center and shallow right, the hits here look a little more uniformly distributed to all fields as well. Jeter always has been and will continue to be an opposite field hitter, but that doesn’t mean pulling the ball is a bad thing.
Anyway, Jeter’s biggest problem before going on the DL was his extreme ground ball rate. I’m talking 66.5% grounders against righties from the start of 2010 until he hit the shelf. It’s impossible to hit for any kind of power when you’re beating the ball into the ground like that. Derek still hits the ball on the ground a ton, he always has, but since coming off the DL he’s done a better job of getting the ball in the air and hitting it on a line…
Green is grounders, red is line drives, fly is fly balls.
Jeter’s ground ball rate was literally off the charts for a while. It was pretty bad. He calls last year’s DL trip a “blessing in disguise” and it absolutely was. Maybe it’s hyperbole, but the work he did with Denbo in Tampa while coming back from the calf problem probably saved his career, at least in terms of being a well above average offensive player. The Yankees have an MLB-best 132 wRC+ this year thanks in large part to their captain and leadoff hitter. Jeter has been setting the stage since last July and at age-37, he looks to be nowhere close to done.
Derek Jeter Facts
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Touch em all, Derek, it's your time to shine. (Nick Laham/Getty Images)
Father Time caught up with Derek Jeter years ago, but didn’t have the heart to tell him.
We could spend all day coming up with Derek Jeter facts, and I’m sure we’d have a ball doing so. You know what’s more fun, though? Ticking off actual Derek Jeter facts — things he’s done in the first 10 games of the season and how they stack up to his personal history and the league. For instance:
Derek Jeter hit his third home run of the season last night. It took him 29 games to hit his first home run last year (and his second), and he had played in 67 games before hitting his third.
Only 10 players this season have hit more home runs than Derek Jeter. Last year 235 players hit more home runs than Derek Jeter, including Brett Gardner.
Derek Jeter has more hits than any other player in the American League.
It took Derek Jeter 18 games to reach 17 hits last year. This year he’s done it in just 10.
Of the 42 balls Jeter has put in play this year, 17 have been in the air, or 41 percent. He hasn’t put more than 40 percent of his balls in play in the air since 2009.
Jeter’s 33.3% HR/FB ratio won’t regress.*
*Not an actual fact.
Derek Jeter has not popped up a pitch to an infielder this year.
A newfound spring in his step has enabled Jeter to beat out two infield singles so far.
Think this is wholly unsustainable? Derek Jeter’s current BABIP of .359 is just four points more than his career BABIP, and is nine points lower than his 2009 BABIP.
While he’s swinging at the same percentage of pitches as he did last year and in 2010, he’s missing far less often: just 5.3 percent, compared to 6.9 percent in 2011 and 6.7 percent in 2010.
Derek Jeter has already produced 5.2 runs above average at the plate. He produce d7.6 runs above average last year. After park adjustments, Jeter has produced 5.0 runs above average this year, after producing 5.5 last year.
In an up-and-down start to the season, Jeter has provided quite the bright spot for the Yankees. What makes his hot start even better is that it continues the surge that started when he returned from the DL last year. Since then he has 357 PA and has hit .337/.387/.477. While there’s a good chance he’ll slow down at some point this year — he will turn 38 in June, after all — his hot start has renewed faith in his continued ability to remain effective at a time when most shortstops have packed it up and called it a career. We might not see these Derek Jeter facts all season, so let’s enjoy them while they’re fresh.
Could Jeter’s successor already be on the Yankees’ roster?
Posted by: | CommentsEvery incarnation of the Yankees has its polarizing players. For some reason, swaths of fans flock to disparage certain players, while others rush to their defenses. In the mid-00s A-Rod was perhaps the most polarizing player on the Yankees. Elite player? Sure. But he was portrayed as a bad teammate — one who, according to so many fans, would never win a World Series with the Yankees. While A-Rod is still polarizing in some ways, it’s not nearly to the level it was before 2009. Now fans are out to fry smaller fish.
While Nick Swisher has his detractors, he is not the most polarizing player on the Yankees. No, that distinction belongs to Eduardo Nunez, a mere utility infielder. His potential — Baseball America ranked him their No. 8 Yankees prospect before last season — tantalizes some. His on-field blunders, including 20 errors in under 1,000 defensive innings last season, infuriates others. There appears to be little gray area in between.
Love him or hate him, though, the Yankees clearly think he can be part of their future. They’re trying to get him as much playing time as possible this year, using their lack of a regular DH to rotate players and get Nunez time in the field. The idea is to determine his value to them in the future, which they cannot do if he’s playing in AAA or getting irregular reps in the majors. For his part, Nunez is making the most of the opportunity.
In today’s Wall Street Journal, Dan Barbarisi writes about Nunez’s desire to succeed Derek Jeter as the Yankees’ everyday shortstop. He certainly gave his all this off-season, joining Robinson Cano bright and early for all-day workouts. In the process Cano has altered Nunez’s view of what it takes to be a big leaguer. For Nunez — whom Barbarisi describes as having “physical ability, smarts and talent” — it could be just the wake-up call he needs to take the next step.
The story actually comes full-circle in terms of polarizing Yankees. A-Rod, who polarized like none other early in his Yankees career, once took a young Cano under his wing. At a time when Cano’s focus was waning, A-Rod showed him the path to greatness. Cano has since put in his work, and the results are visible. Now Cano has turned his own attentions towards Nunez. Can Cano have the same effect on his protege as A-Rod had on his?
Replacing Jeter is no small task. There’s not only the legendary shoes that Nunez has to step into, but there is the sheer ability that Jeter possesses even to this day. His skills in decline, Jeter has figured out a way to hit better than most of his peers at an age when most of them have declined to the point of on-field uselessness. Nunez’s hard work doesn’t guarantee his ability to step into that role, but it does give him another leg up. He’ll need every one of them if he’s to one day become the Yankees’ starting shortstop.
Ben’s Take: I read the Barbarisi article this morning and had a few thoughts of my own considering the way last night’s game played out. Joe Girardi removed A-Rod for Nunez as a pinch-runner in the 8th, and Nunez took over at third base in the 8th. He nearly threw away a grounder during the Orioles’ half of the inning. When the Yankees took the lead in the 10th, Girardi removed Nunez for Eric Chavez, a superior fielder.
On the one hand, the move made sense. Chavez in his prime was a Gold Glove third baseman with a stellar arm, and he’s the guy you would want manning the hot corner when outs are at a premium. On the other hand, the Yankees removed their primary back-up infielder for defensive purposes late in the game last night. I don’t think I had ever seen that happen before.
To me, then, the question becomes: What do you do with Eduardo Nunez? The Yanks clearly have high hopes for the future, and he has a lot of raw ability. Yet, he’s become a worrisome liability in the field, not quite at the Chuck Knoblauch level but not a guy who has earned late-inning trust. The Yanks want to keep him at the Big League level, but just maybe he’d be better off playing the infield everyday in the minors while working on his throwing. It wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen to Nunez or the Yanks.
Jeter’s advantage in the young season
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Four! Four hits against a lefty. Ah ha ha ha. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Sometimes an unexpected break can be just what we need. For Derek Jeter, last year’s trip to the disabled list, which he had not visited since 2003, provided just such a break. It allowed him to step back and refocus his efforts after a .260/.324/.324 start to the season. Whatever he changed, mentally and physically, turned around his season. In his 314 PA after returning he hit .331/.384/.447, which closely resembled his superb 2009 season.
Jeter’s changes appear to have lasting effects. In spring training he hit .318/.362/.455, and is now off to a hot start in the 2012 season. After a 4 for 4 performance last night he’s now 7 for 17 on the season (.412) with a walk and a double. Because he’s Derek Jeter, the 4 for 4 performance caused people to say some ridiculous things, but that’s understandable. It’s hard not to be excited about an apparently resurgent Jeter.
That Jeter has gotten off to such a hot start comes with little surprise. In their four games this year, the Yankees have faced two lefty starters, against whom Jeter excels. Against these left-handed pitchers Jeter has picked up five of his seven hits. Last year following his injury Jeter faced a left-handed pitcher 89 times and hit .390/.438/.622, smacking four of his six home runs in that sample. Even in 2010, when he struggled more than ever previously in his career, he hit .321/.391/.481 against lefties, a 135 sOPS+ (that is, compared to the league vs. left-handed pitching).
Jeter’s prowess against left-handed pitching is no revelation; he’s smacked them around far worse than righties in every year of his career except for 1999 (his surge against righties fueled his career-best season). But in recent years he has beat them up to a disproportionate degree: in his last three seasons he has the tree highest tOPS+* figures of his career. That is, his use of left-handed pitching as batting practice has essentially kept his career afloat as he has aged. This is especially true in the last two years, when he produced solidly below-average numbers against right-handed pitching (81 and 94 sOPS+).
*tOPS+ is his split compared to his overall numbers, so it compares the player to himself, while sOPS+ compares him to the league. Also, adding to that asterisk, Jeter did produced a 132 tOPS+ vs. lefties in 2000, which ties his 2009 mark. Close enough.
Tonight Jeter gets another chance, as the Yankees face Orioles’ lefty Wei-Yin Chen. After that, C.J. Wilson will take the mound against the Yankees this weekend. Francsico Liriano will be in town with the Twins next week. When the Yanks head up to Boston it might line up so they face Jon Lester and Felix Doubront. The Rangers have both Matt Harrison and Derek Holland. Among their most common opponents, the Orioles have two lefty starters, as do the Red Sox and the Rays. Only the Blue Jays are left with a single lefty in their rotation. All of this will play to Jeter’s advantage this year.
We so often see players, and especially middle infielders, start to fade by the time they’re Derek Jeter’s age. In many ways, Jeter himself has been in decline as a ballplayer. He’s kept himself afloat, though, and a big part of the reason is his ability to pick up the ball from left-handed pitching. May this skill fuel his career from now through the end of his current contract — and perhaps beyond.
2012 Season Preview: Platoon Opportunities
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Via Reuters Photos
Platoons in baseball can be tricky machines. In theory they’re great. They allow batters to emphasize their strengths and hide their weaknesses. But in practice they don’t quite add up perfectly. There are all sorts of issues that go along with platoons, not least of which is the sheer number of roster spots available. As such, teams have to pick their platoon guys with care. The 2012 Yankees seem to have one prominent platoon pair, with a couple of other low-level ones to consider on occasion.
Heading into the 2010 season, the Yankees needed a righty outfield bat. They had just traded for Curtis Granderson, who had struggled against left-handed pitching for most of his career. They were also going to try Brett Gardner, another lefty, in left field. Having a right-handed outfielder to spell one of them seemed not only like a good idea, but a pretty necessary insurance plan. And so, despite Marcus Thames‘ subpar spring training, he made the team.
Deciding that they’d gotten the best of Thames, the Yankees sought another lefty masher for their 2011 lineup. Andruw Jones appeared to be a perfect fit. After slipping in 2007 and turning in a disastrous 2008, Jones had recovered to be a serviceable part-time player, excelling particularly against left-handed pitchers. His continued production against left-handed pitching earned him a return trip for 2012.
Jones has expressed a desire for a more regular role, facing both lefties and righties. He might get that opportunity, given the concerns with our next entrant on the platoon bats list. But chances are he’ll be at his most effective against left-handed pitchers. Since 2009 Jones has produced a 129 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which ranks 55th among all major leaguers with at least 200 PA (against LHP).
Once the Yankees traded Jesus Montero, their DH situation became a big clearer. Jones could take reps at DH against left-handed pitching, leaving Brett Gardner to a full-time role in left. But that still left open the strong side of the DH platoon. By that point in the off-season there weren’t many viable options remaining, and so the Yankees picked the player whom they thought gave them the best combination of the skills they valued. That turned out to be Ibanez.
Like Thames two years ago, Ibanez has started slowly in the spring. Given his guaranteed contract and lack of competition, however, he’ll likely break camp with the team and commence his role as the platoon DH. Yet it’s difficult to expect big things from him. Since 2009 Ibanez has produced a 112 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which ranks 65th out of 147 qualified hitters. That does include a poor 2012 as well as a torrid 2009. The Yanks will do best to avoid all confrontations between Ibanez and lefties.
While Ibanez and Jones represent the bulk of the Yankees’ platoon opportunities, they do have a few other players who carry platoon splits. They likely won’t get platooned, at least not frequently, but their rest days would preferably come when facing same-handed pitchers. (Though that should be the rule of thumb regardless, right?)
Brett Gardner
Last year Gardner saw fewer at-bats against left-handed pitching. This is partly because Jones hit them so well. But there were also signs that he was struggling against them. He didn’t hit for average (.233) and had absolutely no power (.039 ISO). While he did walk and strike out against lefties less frequently than he did against righties, the overall result was pretty negative (75 wRC+).
With the DH spot open against left-handed pitching, Gardner could see more opportunities this year. He did hit lefties fairly well in 2010, a .373 OBP and a 102 wRC+. He’ll get days off against lefties for sure, but it does appear that he’ll get a few more chances to prove his mettle against them in 2012.
Jeter did bounce back in the second half of last year, but his total season numbers against righties still disappointed. In fact, it was his torrid production against lefties, a 160 wRC+ in 168 PA, that contributed greatly to his overall success. Against rigthies, whom he faced 439 times, he hit just .277/.329/.338. Still, that was an improvement on his 2010 season, in which he hit .246/.315/.317 in 500 PA against RHP. The last time he hit righties effectively was 2009: .311/.381/.435. Given his age it’s difficult to expect more out of him than he hit last year. If he can keep up that pace he’ll be OK. But it’s easy to see how his production against righties will hurt his overall numbers in the final years of his contract.
Larry covered A-Rod’s continued woes against left-handed pitching earlier in the off-season. He did a pretty comprehensive job, so there’s no need to rehash it here. A-Rod‘s poor production against lefties makes Eric Chavez an unideal understudy, since he’ll face mostly right-handed pitchers. But perhaps the new, more balanced A-Rod will buck the trend and once again mash left-handed pitching.
There could also be room here to mention both Nick Swisher‘s and Mark Teixeira‘s struggles against righties, but that’s not really a platoon issue. That is, they’re not going to sit against right-handed pitching, since they’re their own platoon partners. But those issues do exist. Just to be clear.
Injury Updates: Jeter, D-Rob, Martin, Swisher
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The agony of da feet. (/crickets) (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
The Yankees seem to be losing the Spring Training injury war at the moment, but thankfully they haven’t run into anything too serious yet. Here’s the latest news on the walking wounded…
- Derek Jeter has a “tender” right calf and will be shut down until Tuesday. This is not the same calf that caused him to miss a month last season. [Mark Feinsand]
- David Robertson still feels “a little” soreness in his bone bruised right foot. He’s been running on a treadmill but has yet to get outside and really test it out. Robertson did play catch yesterday though, and that’s good news. [Jack Curry & George King]
- Russell Martin has some tightness in his left groin, so he’s going to be held out of action for a few days. It’s unclear if it happened when he nearly collided with Chien-Ming Wang at first base yesterday. [Bryan Hoch]
- Nick Swisher‘s sore groin is feeling better, but the team is giving him an extra day off just as a precaution. [Feinsand]
- Eduardo Nunez is going to swing a bat tomorrow after doing nothing the last three days. He hasn’t played since getting hit by a pitch in the right hand last Monday, and was scratched from a game earlier this week after testing it out in batting practice. [Curry]
- Russell Branyan is getting an epidural for his sore back. He hasn’t played at all this spring and was barely able to take batting practice before it flared up. There’s a pretty good chance he’ll get released before he ever gets into a game. [Chad Jennings]
- Manny Delcarmen (remember him?) has started throwing off a half mound as he works his way back from a lat strain. [Jennings]
Just as a quick recap, here’s a list of the walking wounded: Jeter (calf), Robertson (foot), Martin (groin), Swisher (groin), Nunez (hand), Branyan (back), Delcarmen (lat), Joba Chamberlain (elbow), George Kontos (oblique), Ramiro Pena (ankle), Freddy Garcia (hand), Austin Romine (back), and Dan Burawa (oblique). Given all the injured shortstops, we’re going to be seeing a lot of Doug Bernier over the next few days.
2012 Season Preview: All Day, Every Day
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(Via Reuters Images)
When we talk about the core of a team, we can mean many things. From 2007 through 2010 the Yankees had the Core Four of Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte. As the remaining relics from the late-90s dynasty, they led the team in spirit. We can also refer to the core producers on the team. Last year Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano were the core run producers. Still, there is one core area of a team that often gets overlooked.
With the grind of a 162-game season, teams need guys who take the field day after day. A few fragile players can fit into a team’s blueprint, but as those injury risks increase so does the need for durability. Part of a team’s core, then, centers on these guys who somehow remain healthy. After all, as friend of RAB Tommy Bennett likes to say, health is a skill.
While anyone can get injured at any time, these guys have proven their durability. That’s a big plus for any team, especially one that expects to contend from wire-to-wire. We’ll limit this to position players.
Since debuting in 2003, Teixeira has played fewer than 145 games in just one season. That came in 2007, when he missed 27 games with a quadriceps strain. Prior to that he’d been on the DL just once. Since then he hasn’t spent a single day on the DL, unless you count his hamstring injury in Game Four of the 2010 ALCS. (Apparently Baseball Prospectus lists that as a zero-day DL stint.) In the last four seasons Teixeira has played in at least 156 games. He has become one of the game’s iron men.
Should Teixeira fall victim to injury, the Yankees do have some backup plans. Eric Chavez has been taking reps at first base this spring, as he did last year. There’s also Nick Swisher, who has played there occasionally as a Yankee. That would seemingly open up a hole in the outfield, but if Andruw Jones proves he’s viable in a regular role the Yankees could opt to use Swisher at first if a long-term need arises.
Nick Swisher
Swisher is the type of player that, as the cliche goes, bends but does not break. His injury history, per Baseball Prospectus, is actually quite long. Yet it consists mostly of day-to-day items that have kept him out one, two, maybe three days at a time. Just once in his career has he spent time on the disabled list, and that came all the way back in 2005 when he separated his shoulder running into an outfield fence. That caused him to miss 19 games. He wouldn’t miss 19 games combined in the next four years, and has missed only 30 games since returning from the DL.
In each of his three years with the Yankees Swisher has played in exactly 150 games. He has racked up at least 607 PA in those years, and has come to the plate 635 times in each of the last two. He’s lost 20 games to various injuries, including his knee and biceps, but he’s never been out of position for any significant stretch. With a greater focus on conditioning — Swisher was noticeably thinner in 2010 and 2011 than he was in 2009 — he could remain one of the Yankees’ most dependable players.
Robinson Cano
Remember back in 2006 when Cano missed 35 games — 43 days — with a hamstring injury he suffered running the bases? That felt like a long time for him to be out. The injury didn’t seem that severe, and the Yankees did downplay it to a degree. But he came back with a fury, hitting .365/.380/.635 to finish the season and contending with Joe Mauer and Derek Jeter for the batting title. Since then Cano has missed two games — two games! — due to injury. This includes the time in 2010 when Josh Beckett hit him right in the friggin’ knee with a pitch; he was back as the DH the very next game.
In the last five years Cano has averaged 159.8 games played per season. He’s dipped below 160 just twice: in 2008, because he got benched in September, and last year, when he got a couple of days off in the season’s final weeks. Considering his on-field production at a premium position, Cano’s durability has been a great boon to the Yankees.
Curtis Granderson
It might seem odd to count Granderson among the more durable Yankee players. He did, after all, suffer a groin injury early in his pinstriped tenure, and that sticks in our craws. But that was just Granderson’s second career trip to the DL. He opened the 2008 season on the DL with a broken finger, suffered as the result of a spring training hit by pitch. He also missed time last spring training with an oblique injury, but that cost him just 10 days. And, as we saw, it had little bearing on his regular season performance.
What’s odd about Granderson’s injury rap sheet is that it contains zero day-to-day injuries. It’s just the fractured finger, the groin injury suffered while running the bases, and the oblique injury. That’s uncommon, especially for someone who plays a physically demanding position.
Derek Jeter
If Jeter’s injury history is long, it’s only because he’s been in the league for 16 years. He’s had his minor dings and dents over the years, many times after being struck in the hand with a pitched baseball. But last year was the first time since 2003 that he hit the disabled list. Between those DL stints he missed just 42 games, which covers seven full seasons and parts of two others. In those seven years he never dipped below 150 games and has averaged just under 155 per season.
The Yankees, then, have a great advantage, in that five of the nine hitters in their lineup have proven their durability. What of the other four? As it turns out, with one exception, they’ve been durable in the past as well.
Gardner did miss time in 2009 after fracturing his thumb while sliding into second. He also underwent wrist surgery after the 2010 season. He’s had a few other nagging injuries here and there, but nothing serious. He might not seem durable, due to his size, but he’s managed to stay on the field for most of his time with the Yankees.
Time was, Martin played almost every day. That’s usually a commendable trait, but since Martin squats behind the plate for nine innings that workload can take its toll. The injury problem started in 2010, when he hurt his hip while crossing home plate. Before that the worst he’d suffered was an abdominal strain in spring training — though it came the same year as his hip injury. He also underwent knee surgery that off-season, and then missed time last year with a sore lower back.
Still, Martin has remained on the field for an incredible portion of his career, especially for a catcher. Even last year he managed to miss the DL, sitting out just seven games with the back injury. He started 118 games behind the plate, which is good for a catcher. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him around 125 this year.
Since 2004 Ibanez has been on the DL just twice. The first came in 2004, and the other came in 2009. The pair of injuries caused him to miss 52 games total. Other than that, he has a few day-to-day stints. They have added up to 20 games since 2004. That’s a pretty impressive track record. The biggest knock on Ibanez’s health right now is that he missed four games in 2011 with a groin injury, which is the same one he suffered in 2009. He also underwent surgery to correct a sports hernia after the 2009 season. But for the most part he’s stayed on the field.
That just leaves just two regulars. Andruw Jones has been mostly healthy since 2009, but he’s also played limited roles. It’s tough to say how he’d hold up given more playing time. Then again, prior to 2008 he had never hit the DL. There’s also Alex Rodriguez, who has been on the DL every year since 2008. It’s tough to expect him to remain healthy at this point in his career, but he is working with the same trainer that has kept Grant Hill on the basketball court for the last few seasons.
One of the Yankees’ biggest advantages on offense comes in the form of durability. Injuries can hamper a team’s production. It’s not just that they’re missing the one player’s production. The entire lineup changes, and suffers, when one of its main cogs goes on the DL. The Yankees, with the exception of Rodriguez, have been thankful to avoid that in the last few years. Again, injury can happen to anyone, but if the Yankees maintain their injury record, the offense will be all the more powerful.
2012 Season Preview: Something To Prove
Posted by: | CommentsWith Spring Training fully underway, it’s time to begin our season preview. We’re going to change things up a bit this year, focusing on various aspects of the team rather than individual players. You’ll see most players in multiple posts, but the concepts will all be different.
Jeter will have something to prove for the rest of his career.
The 2011 Yankes might have won more games than any other team in the American League, but that doesn’t mean everything broke their way. A number of proven players struggled at various points in the season. Some struggled the entire season. They’ll all enter the 2012 season with something to prove.
These players could prove vital to the Yankees’ success in 2012. As we’ll discuss early next week, there are a number of players who performed above expectations in 2011. We can’t expect them to repeat those phenomenal performances, so it becomes important that other players step up. The following players contributed less than expected to the 2012 Yankees, but could make up for it with big 2012 campaigns.
It’s hard to forget Phil Hughes’ horrible start to the 2011 season. After the Yankees missed out on Cliff Lee (everybody drink!), Hughes became that much more important to the 2011 rotation. He generated some hype after his 18-win 2010 campaign, even though his overall numbers were average at best. It was seemingly his time to shine, but his body had other plans.
Late in spring training reports surfaced that Hughes wasn’t even cracking 90 with his fastball. He proved those reports right in his first start. And then his second. By his third it had become too much. Hughes in 2011 looked like Chien-Ming Wang in 2009. The Yankees reacted in the same way, too; they placed Hughes on the DL with an ambiguous injury.
He came back and pitched better, but by no means did he wow anyone. That led to an intense off-season training regimen that, by all accounts, has him looking fit and prepared for the 2012 campaign. Brian Cashman has asserted that he believes Hughes is “a top-of-the-rotation starter.” Such a transformation, after never previously pitching at that level (as a starter) in the majors would be quite a coup.
Really, though, the Yankees just need Hughes to bounce back to his 2010 levels. If he can give them 180 to 200 innings and perform slightly better than the major league average, he’ll have more than fulfilled his duties as the No. 5 starter. The competition is apparently rigged in his favor, so he’ll get every shot to prove he’s capable.
The questions surrounding Soriano don’t revolve around performance so much as they do health. True, Soriano’s early season performance left much to be desired — through mid-May he had walked more than he struck out and had allowed nine runs in 15 innings (plus another inherited runner). But his main problem in 2011 involved the 66 games he missed with an elbow injury. This is even more concerning for a guy who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2004 and then missed almost all of the 2008 season with elbow troubles.
After returning from the DL, however, Soriano looked more like his old self. He struck out 26 in 24.1 innings, walking only seven in that span and holding opponents to a .205/.263/.318 batting line. He continued pitching well into the playoffs, holding the Tigers to just one hit in 4.2 innings. Unfortunately, that one hit cost them enormously. Even so, his overall performance definitely adds to the optimism that he’ll turn in a full and productive 2012 season.
If Soriano’s elbow doesn’t act up, he’ll play a big role in the bullpen. While Joe Girardi said that David Robertson will resume his eighth-inning duties, it’s not as though he can pitch every eighth inning of every close game. There are also important situations in the seventh inning and even before, and Soriano, who can still induce a good share of swings and misses, could thrive in those. In essence, he’s one of three currently healthy Yankees relievers capable of closing ballgames. That gives them quite a tremendous endgame.
As with Soriano, Rodriguez has to prove his health above all. He started off last season with a bang, going 9 for his first 28 with three homers. But then he dived for a ball at third. That started a chain reaction of injuries that slowed his production. His power took the biggest hit. It gradually faded at first, but by mid-June it was gone. From then through the All-Star break he hit no homers; his .417 SLG was based on his seven doubles and 21 singles.
It was then revealed that he was having severe knee issues, which would eventually require surgery. Rather than spend the rest of the year in pain while producing little in terms of power, Rodriguez opted for the surgery so that he could return, healthy and productive, for the stretch run. That didn’t quite go as expected, though. A thumb injury complicated matters, and Rodriguez hit just .191/.345/.353 in 84 PA after coming off the DL.
At this point we all know about A-Rod‘s knee procedure from this past off-season. We know that he’s so dedicated to his training and health regimen that he’s taking his own meals to restaurants. The effort is definitely there. If his health holds, the performance will almost certainly follow. At this point in his career, though, it’s tough to make any assumptions. He’ll turn 37 in July and has spent time on the DL every year since 2008. Proving his health would be a huge boon for the Yankees in 2012 and in the future.
Derek Jeter proved plenty in the second half of 2011. After a rough start that in many ways reflected his below-expectations 2010 campaign, he found the on-switch while rehabbing from a calf injury. From his return through season’s end he hit .331/.384/.447 in 314 PA, silencing critics. At least for the moment.
Unfortunately, at this stage in his career Jeter will have something to prove every year. If he gets off to a slow start, he’ll have something to prove every at-bat. It won’t be easy on him, either. As a player ages his body does things to which he is not accustomed. Jeter, however, has shown that he’s capable of making adjustments. They might not be drastic maneuvers — the stride-less swing he worked on failed — but they worked in the second half.
While baseball players are typically in steep decline at Jeter’s age, Jeter is not a typical ballplayer. He is one of four players in baseball history with at least 10,000 PA and a BABIP above .350. The other three — Rod Carew, Ty Cobb, and Tris Speaker — all had above-average age-38 seasons. In fact, Cobb led the league in OPS+ at age 38. Carew was the worst of them, with a 101 OPS+, but he did produce a 128 OPS+ at age-37. So while it’s easy to expect decline from Jeter based on his age, remember that he’s not the average ballplayer going through an average decline phase.
Maybe 2010 was just a down year, we thought. After all, Teixeira had a glowing 2009 season in the Bronx. He also battled nagging injuries in 2010, including a thumb injury that sapped his production later in the season. He even ended the postseason on the DL, straining his hamstring in Game Four against Texas. Surely, it was just some bad luck, as evidenced by a .268 BABIP. Right?
As it turns out, Teixeira’s 2010 season was pretty close to his 2011 campaign. They were both colored by heavy power production and a good walk rate, but his batting average simply dipped. While batting average is not a be-all, end-all stat, it does mean plenty — especially when it falls more than 30 points from a player’s career average. For Teixeira, that meant 30 points of OBP and SLG, which led to yet another below expectations year in 2011.
The main problem for Teixeira in 2011 was his performance batting left-handed. He produced a 110 wRC+ from that side, a far cry from his normal levels. He hit right-handed just fine — .302/.380/.587 — but he faced lefties just 216 times out of his 670 PA. He also popped up the ball too often — 11.8 percent of all his fly balls, which is compounded by an increasing number of fly balls in general.
Maybe it’s a kink in his swing. Maybe it’s the psychological effect of a right field fence that is relatively close-by. Whatever the reason, Teixeira is hitting the ball in the air more frequently as a Yankee than he had as a Brave or a Ranger. He’s also popping up more of those pitches. Teixeira is aware of the problem, and says he worked on it this winter. He still has plenty to prove, though, in terms of executing. The last two years were not kind, and he hasn’t played to the expectations the Yankees had when they signed him. As with Rodriguez, a turnaround in 2012 is important not only for the current team, but also for the next five seasons.
The original version of this post omitted Teixeira, which was a glaring oversight.
