Archive for Derek Jeter
DJ3K Notes: RAB contest, Jordan Brand t-shirts
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Jordan Brand has unveiled the designs for its DJ3K commemorative t-shirt.
As Derek Jeter returns home tonight sitting on 2997 hits, the Yankee captain appears destined to join the exclusive 3000-hit club this weekend before the All Star Break, and the marketing frenzy is hitting overdrive. Secondary ticket prices are through the roof (and you can find whatever deals remain on RAB Tickets) while Jeter’s promotional partners are building hype too.
This afternoon, Jordan Brand e-mailed us about a series of items designed as part of their DJ3K collection. On the field, Jeter will be sporting special spikes and batting gloves while Jordan Brand is also releasing a sneaker. For the fans who want merchandise, the t-shirt above will on sale at all major sporting goods stores for $25 once he reaches the milestone. A blue version will be on sale as well.
Furthermore, don’t forget to enter our own DJ3K contest. The details are available in this post, but the short of it is simple: Become a fan of RAB Tickets on Facebook and enter, before the first pitch tonight, with a prediction of the game, the inning and count of Jeter’s 3000th hit. The winner will get two tickets to a sporting event of their choice courtesy of TiqIQ.
Despite Jeter’s status as a lightning rod for controversy and criticism this year, the next few days should be a lot of fun in the Bronx. No one has ever reached 3000 hits as a Yankee, and we shouldn’t lose sight of that accomplishment. As ‘Duk wrote at the Big League Stew today, let’s enjoy it.
Dealing with Jeter at the top of the lineup
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(From Flickr user jcanroot via Creative Commons license.)
When Derek Jeter came off the DL before yesterday’s game, the Yankees got more than just the player. They got all of the drama that comes along with him. That’s not exactly normal for Jeter. While the spotlight has always moved with him, but it has cast him in mostly a positive light. The stories about Jeter this year have been something less than that. While there are still positive vibes, mostly in regards to his 3,000 hit milestone, he and the team have faced an onslaught of criticism over his place in the lineup (and in some, more frivolous, cases, his role as a starter). Yet all this nitpicking might be just that.
A common refrain from stat-minded fans goes something like this: The difference between the optimal and the least efficient batting orders amounts to about a win during the course of a full season. It still means something on a game-to-game basis, but as with most averages it evens out when you collect a large enough sample. It’s not ideal, having guys who don’t get on base often sandwiched with guys who do, but good teams can overcome that in the long run.
It is clear to everyone, whether they’re willing to admit it or not, that Brett Gardner is a better fit in the leadoff spot than Jeter. Even after Gardner slumped a bit in the past week his on-base is 30 points higher than Jeter’s. The ZiPS rest of season projections give Gardner the advantage as well. Given his speed and prowess on the base paths, it’s a great advantage to have him leading off. But is it worth the drama to move Jeter down — probably to eighth — while Gardner slides into the lead off spot?
Against lefties this shouldn’t even be a question. Even as his production has declined in the past few years Jeter has continued to hit lefties. His wRC (weighted runs created, based on wOBA) against lefties from 2010 through the present is 51.0, which trails only Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, and Nick Swisher — that is, hitters who have clearly outproduced him on the whole during that span. His slash stats, .315/.396/.462, indicate that he is still well suited to the leadoff role when a lefty is on the mound. Since they face a lefty starter roughly a quarter of the time*, we’re then dealing with three quarters of the remaining games when analyzing Jeter’s role atop the order.
*Baseball Reference has the exact number on its team splits page, but all 2011 splits pages are blank at the time of writing, so I am SOL on the exact number.
Let’s see how this stacks up when we compare the number of times both Gardner and Jeter project to reach base against righties the rest of the way. To get an approximation of OBP, I’ll use each player’s numbers against righties from the last two seasons. I’d like to go back to 2009 as well, but it’s clear that both Gardner and Jeter have changed dramatically as players since then. It would make for a larger sample, but i don’t think it would be fair to the analysis.
Jeter has batted 718 times against right-handed pitching in the last two years and has reached base safely 220 times, good for a .307 OBP. Gardner has hit 631 times against righties and has reached base 233 times, good for a .373 OBP. If we take these rates and put them into the context of 263 PA* we get Jeter on base 81 times and Gardner on base 98 times. The difference of 17 times on base can be huge, since it means 17 more opportunities for Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and even Robinson Cano to drive in runners. But it’s also 17 runners in the span of 59 games, or one runner every 3.5 games. Is one base runner every 3.5 games worth demoting Jeter?
*The leadoff man will get approximately 350 PA the rest of the way, and so figuring a quarter of them will come against lefties, that leaves 263 against righties.
Let’s take this a step further, even, and plug in everyone’s 2010-2011 numbers against righties into Dave Pinto’s lineup analysis tool. With Jeter at leadoff and Gardner ninth the Yankees would score 5.434 runs per game. With a completely optimized lineup they’d score 5.524 runs per game, and with a lineup that most closely resembles the Gardner first, Jeter eighth or ninth order they’d score 5.518 runs per game. But let’s just take the optimized one. The lineup with Jeter atop against righties would score 321 runs in the 59 (theoretical) remaining games against right-handed starters, and the Gardner-led lineup would score 326 runs. The difference, then, doesn’t seem very large.
There are things that the lineup analysis tool cannot comprehend, such as quality of at-bats. In that department, Gardner is clearly the favorable option. Overall Gardner is clearly the best person to beat leadoff against righties; almost all of the evidence points to that fact. But just as there are factors that go beyond the lineup analysis tool, there are factors that go beyond lineup optimization. There are egos to handle, and a wrong move can have further effects. We can’t measure those, and so we can’t pinpoint their effects on the team. But they do exist, so the least we can do is acknowledge them before moving on.
While Brett Garndner is the preferred option atop the lineup against right-handed pitching, the difference between he and Jeter the rest of the season might not be so great. The Yankees will certainly get more opportunities, but with the averages point to far fewer than we might expect. The Yankees will have the advantage of an additional base runner every 3.5 games, and will score on average six more runs during the rest of the season against RHP, but is that worth the drama of moving Jeter? For every move, after all, there are unforseen consequences, and I’m not sure it’s worth the risk right now. It’s the preferred and optimal move, but it’s understandable why the Yankees wouldn’t do it.
Open Thread: Postgame Notes Edition
Posted by: | CommentsToday’s loss was all about physical errors. Ramiro Pena misplayed two grounders (the second one jumped on him a bit and hit the heel of his glove), Mariano Rivera walked Jason Bay with two outs to start the ninth inning rally, and Luis Ayala put two of the three men he faced on base without forcing them to swing the bat. Boone Logan came in and essentially got out of the inning (though Carlos Beltran struck out on a total hanger, got away with one), but Pena didn’t take care of business behind him.
“[We] move forward,” said Joe Girardi after the game, “we still won the series.” The skipper isn’t going to go out of his way to talk to Pena about what happened, and his outlook was essentially that: move forward. The Yankees just lost their first game in a week and a half because Rivera blew a save, not exactly a regular occurrence. It sucks, but they’re not going to dwell on it and frankly I’m not either. They’re playing too well. It happens.
- As for Phil Hughes, he will in fact start Wednesday and the Yankees only considered two options to accommodate him: a six-man rotation and demoting Ivan Nova to Triple-A. The bullpen wasn’t a consideration for Nova because it takes him a too long to warm up and also because (hypocrite alert!) it wasn’t the best thing for his development. He’ll start for Triple-A Scranton and focus on his slider and changeup. “He handled it like a man, a professional,” said Girardi when asked how Nova took the news.
- No official plan for Derek Jeter because Double-A Trenton hasn’t played. They were in a rain delay earlier and should be starting the game right about now, I believe. Girardi hopes Eduardo Nunez‘s hamstring will be well enough to play tomorrow, should he be needed.
- Girardi argued when Russell Martin was tagged out in that seventh inning run down because he didn’t think he was tagged. Third base ump Brian Knight told him the tag was applied, Girardi asked him to get help, then second base ump Jerry Layne told him Martin was out of the baseline. Okay then.
- Apparently the Yankees were originally told the game was going to start at 4pm ET, then at 2pm ET they were told they were starting at 2:30pm ET. That’s why Freddy Garcia was still warming up when the Mets took the field. The umpires and Terry Collins were aware that he needed the extra time.
- Mark Teixeira is not going to participate in the Homerun Derby and assumed he wasn’t going to make the actual All-Star Team because of the talent at first base. Can’t say I blame him for wanting to spending the time off with his family and not making the long flight for the one event.
- If anyone cares, Jose Reyes is day-to-day with a Grade I hamstring injury. No timetable, it’s just a wait-and-see thing. He felt great this morning though. Basically the best case for the Mets. As for R.A. Dickey, he originally hurt his glute in batting practice a few days ago. Wooo NL baseball.
That’s pretty much it. The Yankees are off to Cleveland now and I assume Jeter will be there to meet them, barring something unexpected in Trenton. The loss sucked, especially since it was to the stupid Mets and I’ll have to listen to my stupid family about it for at least one day, but they weren’t going undefeated the rest of the season. I refuse to get worked up over the end of a seven game win streak.The Dodgers and Angels will play tonight on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball (Billingsley vs. Santana), so watch that and forget all about this game. Talk about that or anything else here.
Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Curtis Granderson will start the All-Star Game at their respective positions thanks to the fan voting. Alex Avila surged past Russell Martin in the voting last week, so he’ll (deservingly) start behind the plate. Adrian Gonzalez will start at first, David Ortiz at designated hitter, and Grandy will be flanked in the outfield by Josh Hamilton and Jose Bautista.
Update: Ortiz, captain of the AL Homerun Derby squad, has asked Mark Teixiera will join him on the team. Adrian and Bautista are confirmed as the other two participants, but Tex has yet to accept.
Update Part Deux: Mariano Rivera was named to the All-Star pitching staff but CC Sabathia was not. Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander made the team but are scheduled to start next Sunday, which would make them ineligible to pitch in the All-Star Game. They’ll be replaced on the roster, though CC is scheduled to pitch that day as well.
Update Part Three: Martin makes it as a reserve. So six total Yankees are heading to the desert in a week. It’s A-Rod‘s 14th All-Star selection, Jeter’s 12th, Mo’s 12th, Cano’s third, Martin’s third, and Granderson’s second. Congrats to all.
Midseason offensive walk and strikeout rates
Posted by: | CommentsOver at The Process Report, Chris St. John recently examined a few select offensive statistics for the Tampa Bay Rays. In particular St. John keyed in on strikeout rate, line drive rate, and pitches per plate appearance. He contrasted each player’s current 2011 numbers with their career numbers (and didn’t include the 2011 numbers in the career numbers). This is a worthy exercise as we’re at a point in the season where plenty of statistics find a large enough sample size to stabilize. I’ve followed his lead using two basic plate approach statistics: walk rate and strikeout rate. Like St. John, I’ve excluded the 2011 numbers from career totals. I’ve also calculated strikeout rate using plate appearances, rather than at-bats, as the denominator. Fangraphs uses at-bats, but plate appearances is a more helpful and logical choice. Data is current through Friday morning, and we’ll kick it off with walk rate.
Walk rate
The two big movers up are Granderson and Swisher. Swisher in particular is notable given his slow start. Despite a low BABIP and poor power numbers, particularly from the left side, Swisher is currently posting the best walk rate and on-base percentage of his entire career. As a result, he’s assembled offensive numbers well above league average, albeit in a depressed offensive environment league-wide. This is good to see. Swisher has had a rough go of it this year, a year which in essence represents a contract year, and even though he’s found himself on the short end of the stick luck-wise he’s still been able to maintain his patience at the plate. Plate discipline is both talent and skill, and Nick Swisher has both.
On the down side is Jorge Posada. It’s not terribly hard to read the between the lines on this one. As he gets older and his bat slows down it would seem logical that Posada would find more pitchers challenging him in the zone. His slow start, no matter how much it was founded on ill-fortune, likely did nothing to discourage this. Despite the dip, it’s worthy to note that his walk rate is still above league average.
Strikeout rate
Don’t be confused by the color scheme change. Green is still good, and red is still bad. Here we see Jeter, Teixeira and Swisher lopping off a decent amount of strikeouts against their historical averages. The cynic would argue that Jeter is striking out less because he’s grounding out to second on the first pitch more. Jeter is actually seeing more pitches per plate appearance this year than in years past, but perhaps more work in this area is required to draw conclusions. It’s also nice to see Swisher reduce his strikeout rate. Peripherals-wise he’s having a very respectable year. It’ll be easier to believe it as the results continue to follow.
On the other side, Martin and Cano are striking out more than they have in the past. Granderson is also striking out more, but no one’s complaining about his year whatsoever. Ultimately, these guys are only halfway through their season and have plenty of time to sort things out at the plate. There’s nothing extremely problematic here, aside from the burr in the saddle that is Robinson Cano‘s plate discipline, and in one respect (Nick Swisher) this data is tremendously encouraging. Will this data hold, or regress to career norms? Time will tell.
Jeter on pace to rejoin team on Monday
Posted by: | CommentsVia Brian Costello, Derek Jeter ramped up his rehab work in Tampa today and is expected to begin a two game rehab assignment with Double-A Trenton this weekend. He would then rejoin the team on Monday in Cleveland. “I feel good now,” said the Cap’n. “I feel a lot better. I’m ready to get out of here.” Jeter has been running the bases and taking batting practice all week. Trenton is home this weekend, so if you want to head to either or both games, you can get tickets here.
Just 5 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
