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Scouting the Wild Card Game: Ervin Santana

October 3, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

In just a few hours the Yankees will once again face veteran right-hander Ervin Santana in a postseason game. He will start tonight’s Wild Card Game for the Twins. Santana faced the Yankees in both the 2005 and 2009 postseasons with the Angels, allowing six runs (four earned) in eleven total innings. Weirdly enough, he’s never started against the Yankees in the playoffs. He’s made five relief appearances.

Santana had a marvelous regular season — he’s probably going to get some down ballot Cy Young votes — in which he threw 211.1 innings with a 3.28 ERA (4.46 FIP) and average-ish strikeout (19.3%), walk (7.1%), and ground ball (41.2%) rates. That includes one start against the Yankees. Santana allowed two runs in 5.2 innings at Yankee Stadium two weeks ago. These days Santana is more of a contact manager who gets a lot of weak fly balls than a strikeout pitcher, hence his .245 BABIP in 2017.

The Twins announced last week Santana would start the Wild Card Game, so even though the Yankees were still alive in the AL East race as late as Game 161, they’ve been preparing for Santana for quite a while now. Scouting reports, video, the whole nine. Santana has been around a while, but like everyone else, he’s changed over time. The 2017 version of Santana is not necessarily the same guy we’ve watched the last ten years. Here’s a look at Minnesota’s starter.

History Against The Yankees

Although he has faced the Yankees franchise plenty of times over the years, Santana doesn’t have a ton of experience against the current crop of Yankees because they’re so young. Jacoby Ellsbury leads the way with 40 career plate appearances against Santana. Brett Gardner has 34 and Todd Frazier has 27. No one else has more than 18.

All told, players on New York’s roster have hit a combined .272/.316/.481 with ten doubles and eight homers in 176 plate appearances against Santana. That includes data dating all the way back to 2006, when 26-year-old Matt Holliday went 1-for-3 with a double against 23-year-old Ervin Santana. Not sure that history is relevant now. Here’s how the current Yankees have fared against Santana since the start of the 2015 season, via Baseball Reference:

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Todd Frazier	22	17	3	0	2	3	4	6	.176	.318	.529	.848
Jacoby Ellsbury	13	10	3	0	0	0	2	1	.300	.417	.300	.717
Brett Gardner	13	13	6	1	0	0	0	1	.462	.462	.538	1.000
Didi Gregorius	11	11	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Chase Headley	11	10	3	1	0	0	0	0	.300	.364	.400	.764
Starlin Castro	8	8	1	0	0	0	0	1	.125	.125	.125	.250
Greg Bird	5	5	2	0	2	4	0	1	.400	.400	1.600	2.000
Aaron Judge	3	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	.333	.333	1.333	1.667
Gary Sanchez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	89	80	19	2	5	8	6	12	.238	.295	.450	.745

Head-to-head stats are a weird thing. I absolutely believe a hitter can “own” a certain pitcher and vice versa, but the head-to-head stats don’t always reflect that because they’re usually very small sample sizes spread out over several years. Does Santana “own” Castro because Castro is 1-for-8 against him the last three years? Maybe! But I’m not sure the 1-for-8 is reflective of the matchup or just regular baseball noise.

Pitch Selection

Tonight’s starting pitchers are pretty similar. Both Santana and Luis Severino are fastball-slider pitchers who use a changeup as their third pitch, though Severino has considerably more velocity on the fastball and slider. (Fun Fact: Current Yankees international scouting director Donny Rowland signed both Santana and Severino as amateurs out of the Dominican Republic.) Santana was a straight fastball-slider guy for a very long time. It wasn’t until fairly recently that the changeup became a legitimate weapon for him.

Here, via Brooks Baseball, is Santana’s pitch selection against right-handed and left-handed batters this season:

Santana throws lots of fastballs and sliders to all hitters, regardless of handedness, though the changeup he will use basically only against lefties. That’s pretty typical. Severino does the same thing. When Santana gets ahead in the count, he’s really going to lean on his slider. When he falls behind, he tends to use a fastball to get back in the count.

Now, that said, teams and players have a way of changing the scouting report in the postseason. Pitchers will lean more heavily on their best pitch — Santana’s slider, in this case — in an effort to get outs. We could definitely see Santana spin more breaking balls tonight, even when behind in the count. That is his best chance for getting a swing and a miss and his best chance for getting an out in general.

Enough words, let’s get to some video. Here is every pitch from Santana’s four-hit shutout of the oh so terrible Giants on June 9th of this season:

As you can see in the video, Santana is going to live on that outside corner against righties. Fastballs and sliders, away away away all game. It’s not just that one game against the Giants either. Here is Santana’s fastball and slider location heat map against right-handed batters this season, via Baseball Savant:

Like I said, away away away to righties. Maybe Santana will change things up in the Wild Card Game and make an effort to bust righties inside more often, though it sure seems like pounding that outside corner is his comfort zone. Judge, Sanchez, Castro, Frazier … zero in on that outside corner.

Platoon Splits

That changeup has been enough of a weapon for Santana that he’s had a reverse split the last two years. Righties hit him better than lefties now. Huh. That wasn’t always the case, of course. Santana once had a pretty significant platoon split. Now it’s reversed, or at the very least even. Here are his last three years:

	vs. RHP	vs. LHP
2015	.243/.297/.355 (.286 wOBA), 21.7 K%, 5.9 BB%	.256/.338/.446 (.346 wOBA), 14.4 K%, 9.8 BB%
2016	.241/.293/.404 (.299 wOBA), 22.7 K%, 6.3 BB%	.246/.310/.357 (.293 wOBA), 17.1 K%, 7.9 BB%
2017	.231/.308/.397 (.305 wOBA), 22.4 K%, 13.9 BB%	.213/.260/.386 (.275 wOBA), 15.6 K%, 5.4 BB%

On one hand, the lack of a platoon split means the Yankees can’t stack their lineup with lefties and take aim for the short porch. I mean, they could, but it wouldn’t create a clear advantage against this pitcher. On the other hand, Santana’s lack of a split means the Yankees could simply play their nine best players, and not fret over ideal matchups. Santana is effective against both righties and lefties, so just play your best. Simple, right?

Can The Yankees Run On Him?

Kinda. Santana used to have big time problems controlling the running game — runners went 122-for-149 (82%) in stolen base attempts against him from 2007-12 — though he has done a better job later in his career. Runners went 11-for-13 (85%) stealing bases against Santana this year and 23-for-27 (85%) over the last three years. Still a high likelihood of success, but not nearly as many chances.

Of course, the catcher plays a big part in this as well, and Jason Castro threw out only 15 of 57 (26%) attempted basestealers this season. That includes one of 12 with Santana on the mound. The Yankees ran wild on Joe Biagini and Raffy Lopez the other day. They probably won’t be able to do the same in the Wild Card Game tonight, but, if they pick their spots — the Yankees did steal two bases against Santana and Castro two weeks ago, for what it’s worth — the Yankees should be able to swipe some bags tonight. The opportunity for stolen bases exists.

* * *

Ervin Santana is not Dallas Keuchel circa 2015, that bonafide ace who shut the Yankees down in the winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but he is a very good Major League pitcher, and they figure to have their hands full tonight. Probably the biggest thing to take away here is that when a righty is at the plate, Santana is going to the outside corner. That’s his spot. That won’t help Yankees hitters discern a fastball from a slider, but having a pretty good idea where the pitch will be located takes one variable out of the equation.

2014 Winter Meetings Open Thread: Thursday

December 11, 2014 by Mike 1,569 Comments

Thanks to the Dodgers, yesterday was by far the busiest day of the Winter Meetings. They made four trades and also agreed to a four-year contract with Brandon McCarthy, so he is no longer a pitching option for the Yankees. There are still plenty of quality pitchers left on the free agent market but they’re starting to come off the board pretty quickly, so the Bombers can’t sit around and wait much longer to act.

The Winter Meetings have been relatively quiet for the Yankees. On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday we learned they continue to say they won’t bid for Max Scherzer, will give Chase Headley four years in exchange for a lower annual salary, have talked to a few teams (Braves, Royals, Marlins) about bullpen help, and have some level of interest in Stephen Drew, Sergio Romo, Jason Grilli, and Rafael Soriano. Today’s the last day of the Winter Meetings and we’ll keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here, so make sure you check back throughout the day. All timestamps are ET.

4:33pm: The Yankees did contact the Diamondbacks about Wade Miley and the Tigers about Rick Porcello before they were traded to the Red Sox. “Did I call Arizona? Yes. Did I call Detroit? Yes. I didn’t have Cespedes to send to Detroit. We are waiting for something we are comfortable with.,” said Brian Cashman. [George King]
2:02pm: Ervin Santana is currently finalizing a four-year, $54M deal with the Twins. The contract includes a fifth year vesting option based on innings pitched. Scratch him off the list of available pitchers. [Jeff Passan]
1:56pm: It’s unlikely Chase Headley will pick a team today. Earlier this week it was reported he would likely pick a club before the end of the Winter Meetings. So we wait. [Joel Sherman]
1:35pm: “There are still players in the market place who are attractive to us at the position they play,” said assistant GM Billy Eppler in the most generic Yankees quote ever. They’ve mastered the art of saying something and nothing at the same time. [Brendan Kuty]
1:06pm: Brian Cashman confirmed the Yankees never did make an offer to Brandon McCarthy. “I figured the market would take him at a level that we couldn’t play on,” said the GM. [Bryan Hoch]
12:53pm: A team official said the Yankees are “definitely not” chasing Max Scherzer. We’ll see. I will never truly believe the Yankees are out on a big time free agent until the player signs with another team. [Bob Klapisch]
12:23pm: The Yankees are active in the trade market but are unwilling to give up their top prospects for a pitcher they would only control for one year, like Jordan Zimmermann or Johnny Cueto. [Joel Sherman]
9:37am: The Yankees are “kicking the tires” on Ervin Santana. The Twins are pushing hard to sign him and are reportedly offering four years though. Santana is probably the third best available starter right now behind Scherzer and James Shields. [Chris Cotillo & Jon Heyman]
9:30am: Brian Cashman confirmed the Yankees spoke to the Dodgers about Dee Gordon and the Phillies about Jimmy Rollins before they were traded yesterday. Neither conversation went very far. We heard about their interest in Rollins a few weeks ago, but the interest in Gordon is new. [Dan Barbarisi]
The Rule 5 Draft is at 12pm ET today and Cashman said the Yankee are unlikely to make a selection. They have three open 40-man spots but prefer to keep them open for flexibility. Lame. [Chad Jennings]

Wolfson: Yankees recently inquired about Ervin Santana

February 10, 2014 by Mike 40 Comments

Via Darren Wolfson: The Yankees were one of several teams in inquire about Ervin Santana recently. Ken Rosenthal says the right-hander is finally progressing towards a deal, but Tim Dierkes hears talks still have a ways to go before anything is finalized.

Last month we heard the Yankees requested Santana’s medical records, but that was before they signed Masahiro Tanaka and it was said to only be due diligence. The 31-year-old pitched quite well last season (3.24 ERA and 3.93 FIP) but he’s very fly ball and homerun prone, making him a bad fit for Yankee Stadium. Santana would be an upgrade over the team’s internal fifth starter candidates, though I would be surprised if the team spent that kind of money on another starter at this point.

Mailbag: K-Rod, Ichiro, Villarreal, Fifth Starter

January 24, 2014 by Mike 45 Comments

Eleven questions and eleven one-paragraph answers this week. You can send us mailbag questions or anything else using the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.

Dan asks: Doesn’t it make a lot of sense for the Yankees to go after Francisco Rodriguez? He’d provide a power arm for the bullpen (which clearly still needs one or two more pieces). He has closer experience if Robertson doesn’t work out.

Rodriguez, 32, didn’t sign until the middle of April last year, remember. He did pitch better in 2013 (2.70 ERA and 3.65 FIP) than he did in 2012 (4.38 ERA and 3.83 FIP), so maybe that means he won’t have to wait as long to find a new team this offseason. K-Rod still misses plenty of bats (10.41 K/9 and 28.0 K% in 2013) but he’s also become way more fly ball (only 36.4% grounders) and homer (1.35 HR/9 and 15.2% HR/FB) prone in recent years as he’s lost velocity. He’s not the elite, shutdown reliever he was as recently as 2011 anymore, but Rodriguez is still a solid bullpen arm who can help the Yankees. They might be wary of his off-field issues though.

David asks: Now that the Yankees have signed Masahiro Tanaka, are they more free to trade Ichiro Suzuki? I thought they might hold onto Ichiro long enough for him to help with the sales pitch, but they really need an OF who can hit the ball out of the park now and then. On the days Beltran plays the OF and Jeter plays SS, would Ichiro be the current option at DH?

I don’t think Ichiro was ever part of the sales pitch to Tanaka — if we was, we haven’t heard anything about it — and they were always free to trade him. It just seems like there are no takers, even if the Yankees eat some salary. The bench right now looks really awful (Frankie Cervelli, Brendan Ryan, Ichiro … Scott Sizemore?) with no one who can be used as a pinch-hitter or anything like that. Beltran and Alfonso Soriano figure to split DH and right field, but on the days one of them sits, it’ll be Ichiro who plays. That’s not ideal. I’d like to see an actually hitter on the bench, someone who can run into a fastball or at least get on-base at a decent clip.

Sam asks: We see Robinson Cano get 10/240, Clayton Kershaw land 7/217, and Tanaka (without an MLB pitch to his name) get 7/155. Is there a point, in your opinion, where we hit a ceiling of what an MLB player is being paid, or are we looking at $500+ million dollar contracts down the road?

This isn’t an MLB only thing, though MLB salaries have inflated more rapidly than the rest of the working population’s. It’s only a matter of time before we get a $500M+ contract and I bet it’ll happen sooner than we expect, maybe within the next 20 years or so. Heck, there will be a point where the average annual salary in the U.S. is $500M, but that won’t happen in our lifetimes. As long as the union stands its ground and does not allow a salary cap, MLB salaries are only going to continue going up. It’s the way of the world.

Kevin asks: Do you think last year’s three first round draft picks and the planned spending frenzy in international free agency can lead to the Yankees’ farm system being decent and (dare I say it) maybe even good? I know they won’t have a first round pick this season, but it’s not like you are completely missing out on talent if your starting your draft in the second round.

To steal a phrase from Hubie Brown, there is a lot of upside potential in the Yankees’ farm system this year. They’re adding what amounts to four first round talents in Eric Jagielo, Aaron Judge, Ian Clarkin, and Ty Hensley, who is due to return from his hip(s) surgery. Manny Banuelos will also return from Tommy John surgery to give the system a boost. International guys like Abi Avelino and Luis Severino will have a chance to improve on last year’s success as well. Just based on the guys already in the system, there’s a lot of potential for a big step forward in 2014. Every team has a handful of guys who could really awesome if they stay healthy and take a step forward and yadda yadda yadda, but I feel like the Yankees have more than the average team.

Dan asks: Will the failure to achieve $189m put away all talk of getting under for the foreseeable future? Or every offseason from now on will the Yankees consider $189m as a possible offseason strategy to evaluate each year?

Given all the long-term commitments they handed out this winter and the fact that Alex Rodriguez’s salary will be back on the books next year, I don’t see how the Yankees could get under the luxury tax threshold in the future. My real quick math already has the 2015 payroll at $152.1M for only eight (!) players, and that’s with two above-average producers (David Robertson and Brett Gardner) heading for free agency and needing to be either re-signed or replaced. The Collective Bargaining Agreement expires after the 2016 season and I have to think the luxury tax threshold will rise at that point. There’s too much money in the game to keep it at $189M; they might have to bump it up to $200M or even $210M.

Uke asks: Now that the Yankees have gone over the $189 million goal, why don’t they offer Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez one-year contracts with the stipulation that they won’t make a qualifying offer next year?

The Collective Bargaining Agreement says you can’t sign a player and promise to not make the qualifying offer in the future, though I’m not sure how they’d go about enforcing that. I’d love to see Ubaldo fall into their laps in March, similar to what happened with Kyle Lohse last year, but I’m counting on it. I wouldn’t be surprised if he signed this weekend. Adding another starter, even someone like Bronson Arroyo, to knock the internal guys down a peg would be awesome in my book, but the infield and bullpen have to be the priorities right now.

Dustin asks: Should the Yankees put a claim on Brayan Villarreal if he falls to them? He walks way too many, but his strikeout propensity would do well in low-to mid-leverage innings, kind of like how Joba Chamberlain was used of late.

The Red Sox designated the 26-year-old Villarreal for assignment a few days ago after an ugly season in which he walked nine and struck out six while allowing ten runs in 4.1 big league innings. His 2.67 ERA (3.17 FIP) in 42.1 minor league innings looks great, but he also walked 30 batters (6.4 BB/9 and 16.5 BB%). Villarreal had a strong 2012 season with the Tigers (2.63 ERA and 2.98 FIP in 54.2 innings) but he’s a classic hard-thrower who has no idea where the ball is going. Very similar to Brian Bruney when the Yankees signed him. All you can do with a guy like that is hope he irons out his command for a long stretch of the season. The Bombers need bullpen help but they don’t have room for Villarreal on the 40-man roster and I’m not sure if he’s worth clearing a spot for.

Charley asks: Do you think now that the Yankees got Tanaka that Vidal Nuno has a leg up on the fifth starter spot since he is a lefty? Joe Girardy typically likes to split his lefty/righty pitchers and now they have only one lefty in CC Sabathia.

In a perfect world, the Yankees would have more than one left-handed starter because of Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch and the various power lefty bats in the division (David Ortiz and Chris Davis, primarily). I don’t think it’s a requirement though. At this point the team needs to just assemble the best pitching staff it can regardless of handedness. If Nuno wins the fifth starter’s spot in camp, great. If it’s David Phelps or Adam Warren, well that’s okay too. To answer the question, no, I don’t think Nuno’s handedness gives him a leg up on the competition. I think they’ll give the job to whoever impresses the most.

Paul asks: Let’s play glass-half-full for a moment and assume that Michael Pineda is healthy and producing in ST and gets the #5 rotation slot. Phelps would almost certainly go to the BP. What about Warren and the other #5 competitors? Are they too similar in the roles they would fill to go with him?

I think both Phelps and Warren would go to the bullpen in that case, one as the long man and one as a more traditional short reliever. Warren was the long man all last year while Phelps did the short relief thing in September after returning from his forearm injury. It’s possible one would go to Triple-A to remain stretched out as the sixth starter, but I think both would wind up working in relief given the state of the bullpen. Using both as multi-inning middle relievers (rather than a long man and a one-inning guy) would be pretty neat. It would obviously be awesome if Pineda showed enough to win a rotation spot in camp. That would really create some roster options for the Yankees.

Tucker asks: In the past with these ST starter competitions, we’ve seen the Yankees seemingly give one candidate a leg-up. I think this year we could see that happening with Pineda. Do you agree, or do you think that a different starter fits that role better?

The Yankees have definitely held some rigged Spring Training competitions over the years, most notably the fifth starter competition in 2010 (Phil Hughes over Joba) and last year’s catching competition (Chris Stewart over everyone). If it does happen with the fifth starter’s spot this year, I think Phelps would be the guy with the advantage given the last two years. That’s just a hunch though. Pineda is coming off two lost years and might need more time in Triple-A to shake the rust off. As I mentioned before, I honestly think this competition will be more legitimate — whoever pitches the best in camp will win it. Of course, Spring Training competitions don’t end in Spring Training. If the fifth starter doesn’t perform well early on, someone else will take his spot. The team has enough candidates that they won’t have to live with a poor performing fifth starter for more than a few starts.

Kyle asks: Do you see the Yankees re-signing Brian Cashman or will they let someone else take the role as GM, like Billy Eppler?

I wrote this post about the future of the front office two years ago, after Eppler was officially named the assistant GM. It seemed like the Yankees were setting up a line of succession — Eppler spends three years learning the ropes as the assistant before taking over as GM when Cashman’s deal was up. Cashman would presumably be moved to some kind of president or director or chairman or whatever role. The Indians (Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti) and White Sox (Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn) have both made similar moves in recent years. I still expect something like that to happen. Ownership clearly loves Cashman but this will be his 16th year as GM. Things can get pretty stale after that much time and a new voice could do wonders for the organization (it could also do a lot of damage, remember). Moving Cashman into a different role and making Eppler the GM seems very possible and I do think that is what will happen.

Rosenthal: Yankees request Ervin Santana’s medical records

January 18, 2014 by Mike 52 Comments

Via Ken Rosenthal: The Yankees are one of several clubs to request Ervin Santana’s medical records recently. The team was only doing their due diligence. Brian Cashman recently indicated they could fill out the rotation with cheap pitcher if they fail to sign Masahiro Tanaka.

Santana, 31, had a 3.24 ERA (3.93 FIP) in 211 innings for the Royals last year. He has been a horse, throwing at least 210 innings in three of the last four years, but he’s also very homer prone. His career homerun rate (1.22 HR/9 and 11.0% HR/FB) is nearly identical to Phil Hughes’ (1.29 HR/9 and 10.2% HR/FB) even though he’s spent the majority of his career in pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium. Santana was awesome last year but his skillset and Yankee Stadium are unlikely to mix well.

Yanks could pass on the top free agent pitchers now and look for better next winter

December 10, 2013 by Mike 73 Comments

Is a Garza now worth a shot at a Kershaw later? (Getty) — Garza now or maybe a shot at Kershaw later? (Getty)

Six years ago, the Yankees took one of the biggest risks in franchise history. The Twins were shopping two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana one year before free agency and he was a perfect fit for the Yankees, a team in need of a workhorse ace left-hander. There were offers and counteroffers, a bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox, and weeks of rumors. It was exhausting, really.

Santana was a perfect fit for the Yankees … except that he wasn’t. Not only would they have had to trade away some of their top prospects to acquire him, but they’d also would have had to give him a nine-figure contract extension to keep him around. Johan was also showing some signs of decline, particularly in his spiking homerun rate and sudden decreased usage of his slider. There were definite red flags. It was a risky move but the type of move the Yankees usually make, except this time they didn’t. They passed on Santana and off he went to the Mets for a mostly forgettable four-player package.

The Yankees passed on Santana for two reasons. One, they wanted to keep their young pitching. Given the state of the franchise at the time, it was the right move. Two, there was a better option coming along the next offseason. CC Sabathia, another Cy Young winning workhorse left-hander, was due to become a free agent following the 2008 season, when New York could acquire him for nothing but money (and a draft pick). It was an incredibly risky move because there was no guarantee Sabathia would actually hit the open market, but the Yankees rolled the dice and a year later they got their man. They kept their young starters and got their ace lefty. Santana, meanwhile, gave the Mets one Cy Young caliber season before starting to break down. The plan couldn’t have worked out much better for the Yankees.

Fast forward to present day, and the Yankees are in a bit of a similar situation. No, they aren’t trying to trade for a Cy Young winning ace southpaw (that would be David Price), but they are in the market for pitching and there are some pricey options sitting out there for the taking, namely Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, and Ervin Santana. Those are the three best free agent starters available right now while Masahiro Tanaka sits in posting system limbo. And you know what? None of those three guys is a slam dunk, we gotta have him starter. Jimenez was awful as recently as the All-Star break, Garza has been hurt the last two years, and Santana was awful in 2012. The track records are as sketchy as they get for a high-priced starter.

Those are the top free agent pitchers available right now, with Hiroki Kuroda off the board and Tanaka not yet available. Now, courtesy of MLBTR, here is a sampling of the hurlers scheduled to hit the open market one year from now, during the 2014-2015 offseason (2015 season age in parenthesis):

Homer Bailey (29)
Clayton Kershaw (27)
Jon Lester (31)
Justin Masterson (30)
Max Scherzer (30)
James Shields (33)

Those are six pretty great pitchers, right? Just about all of them are reasonably young too. I’d rather have any of those six over Ubaldo or Garza or Santana, that’s for sure. Obviously those guys could sign extensions between now and next winter — Kershaw, Scherzer, and Lester seem most likely to ink an extension at this time — but there’s just so many of them that one or two figures to slip through the cracks and be available next offseason.

If Tanaka doesn’t get posted — I still think they should go all out to land him if he does indeed become available at some point — I think the Yankees would be better off repeating their Santana-Sabathia strategy. Rather than pay for an imperfect solution like Garza or Ubaldo or Santana right now, they could sign a stopgap starter (Bartolo?) for this year before going hard after one (or maybe even two) of those top guys next winter. They’ll want to have as much money available as possible if, say, Kershaw and Scherzer hit free agency next winter. Or Bailey and Masterson. Or Lester and Shields. You get the point. A stray Ubaldo could gum up the works.

Would this plan be risky? Absolutely. There’s a chance all of them will sign extensions before free agency and the Yankees will be left out in the pitching cold. Is it worth the risk? I think it is when there are six (not one or two) of these guys and the alternatives are Garza, Jimenez, and Santana. That’s easy for me to say when my neck isn’t on the line, obviously. It could be that the Santana-Sabathia situation was a one-time thing the Yankees are not willing to risk again, but because they took that risk once before and it worked out so wonderfully, we kinda have to assume it isn’t completely off the table in the future. If Tanaka is not posted, the Yankees’ best course of action maybe be signing a stopgap starter and focusing on those premium arms slated to hit the market next winter.