Estevan Florial Archives - Page 2 of 10

Thoughts on MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects for 2019

February 21, 2019 by Mike

Earlier this week the prospect gurus at MLB.com released their annual top 30 Yankees prospects list. The other scouting publications released their Yankees prospect lists within the last few weeks as well. As always, MLB.com’s list is entirely free. The list, the scouting reports, the scouting grades, the whole nine. It’s a great resource.

MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects last month. Here are their top ten Yankees prospects and their place on the top 100 list:

OF Estevan Florial (No. 57 on the top 100)
RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 66 on the top 100)
RHP Albert Abreu
RHP Deivi Garcia
RHP Clarke Schmidt
C Anthony Seigler
OF Everson Pereira
RHP Trevor Stephan
OF Antonio Cabello
RHP Roansy Contreras

“While the Yankees’ farm system isn’t as overflowing with big league-ready talent as it has been recently, they do have an impressive stockpile of high-ceiling/high-risk youngsters,” writes Jim Callis. “… New York is one of the best organizations at helping pitchers improve their velocity and spin rates, giving it an intriguing wave of overpowering arms that has yet to surface in the big leagues.”

Noticeably absent from MLB.com’s top 30 list is RHP Freicer Perez, who ranked eighth last year. Six disaster starts and season-ending shoulder surgery will do that. I dropped Perez to 19th on my top 30 list. Anyway, here are some thoughts on MLB.com’s top 30 list, or rather some thoughts on the information included in the scouting reports.

1. Putting numbers on Florial’s tools. Most of the chatter about Florial this winter revolved around his pitch recognition, or lack thereof. And yes, his pitch recognition is a significant issue. It must improve for him to have a long and productive big league career. Fortunately he turned only 21 in November and has time to get better.

All the attention being paid to Florial’s pitch recognition can make it easy to forget what makes him such a quality prospect. MLB.com’s 20-80 scouting scale grades give him the best grade in four of the five tools among the top 30. Look at this:

Power: 55 (tied with C Josh Breaux, OF Anthony Garcia, OF Ryder Green)
Speed: 65
Fielding: 60 (tied with OF Everson Pereira)
Throwing: 65

As a reminder, 20 on the 20-80 scale is terrible, 80 is great, and 50 is average. Florial is above-average in four of the five tools and a full grade better than average in three of the five. His 45 hit tool is what prevents him from being a truly elite prospect, but damn, four above-average tools? It’s easy to lose sight of that. If he is able to conquer his pitch recognition issues — a big IF, of course — Florial can be a big time all-around impact player.

2. Are Medina’s issues mental? RHP Luis Medina has the most electric arm in the system. It’s easy upper-90s gas with a hammer curveball and a good changeup. The kid just has no idea where the ball is going. He walked 46 batters in 36 innings with Rookie Pulaski last year, or exactly one-quarter of the batters he faced. Medina also uncorked a dozen wild pitches, so yeah, control is an issue.

In MLB.com’s scouting report, they note “some observers believe his strike-throwing issues are more mental than physical.” They’re not the only publication to mention this either. FanGraphs said something similar in their recent top Yankees prospects list. From FanGraphs:

Medina’s issues aren’t physical — his delivery is fine and his arm stroke is clean. Instead, the problem appears to be mostly mental. He’ll throw well in the bullpen only to have things will snowball for him in game situations. One source described his issues as stemming from a need for greater mental maturity and to not be so hard on himself, which are exactly the kinds of traits that come with general social maturity.

Huh. Most of what I’ve read attributed Medina’s control issues to a delivery he struggles to repeat. MLB.com and FanGraphs both say that no, the delivery is good, the control problems are more mental than physical. Medina is still only 19 and it’s silly to think he should be more polished than he is at this age. Dellin Betances had (has) similar stuff and it took him until his mid-20s to harness it. Medina strikes me a similar long-term project. Strike-throwing issues stemming from a mental block seem more difficult to correct than strike-throwing issues that stem from a bad delivery, but who knows. Everyone is different. Medina’s control issues are bad but we’re not in Jeff Degano/Jason Neighborgall territory either. Hopefully as he gains experience he’ll get the ball closer to the plate. I just thought it was interesting to read his control problems could be mental rather than related to his delivery.

3. Osiel Rodriguez is the next big thing. At this time last year Pereira was the next big thing. He signed as an international amateur free agent the previous summer and quickly filled out his frame and shown increased power potential. This year’s next big thing is 17-year-old Cuban righty Osiel Rodriguez, who the Yankees gave $600,000 last year after acquiring bonus pool space in the Luke Voit trade. MLB.com ranks Rodriguez the 18th best prospect in the system. A snippet of their scouting report:

Somewhat reminiscent of former Yankees star Orlando Hernandez, Rodriguez has a seemingly endless combination of pitches and arm slots. He has an electric arm that produces 92-95 mph fastballs that top out at 97 with high spin rates that give him rising life up in the strike zone. His hard curveball is a bit more effective than his harder slider, with both displaying the potential to become plus pitches, and his changeup has splitter action and similar upside … He has a lofty ceiling, as his chance to develop four plus offerings could make him a frontline starter.

Well then. Rodriguez will play this entire season at age 17 and he’s yet to appear in a pro game, so as exciting as that scouting report is, we have to pump the brakes a bit. The scouting report mentions he “doesn’t have the cleanest arm action and there’s effort in his delivery,” which you can see in the video below, and pro hitters will tell us what they think about Rodriguez once he gets into games. Since the 2014-15 signing spree dud, the Yankees have done some great work internationally — six of MLB.com’s top ten Yankees prospects were originally signed internationally by the Yankees — and Rodriguez (and unranked OF Kevin Alcantara) looks like this year’s breakout candidate.

4. I’m not the only Myatt fan. I ranked RHP Tanner Myatt, last year’s 11th round pick, as the 27th best prospect in the system. MLB.com has him 29th and no other scouting publication even mentioned him in recent weeks, let along ranked him on a top Yankees prospects list. I’m not saying he’s a future ace or anything, but a 6-foot-7 20-year-old with an upper-90s fastball and a wipeout breaking ball will never look out of place on an organizational top 30 prospects list. MLB.com’s scouting report says Myatt has “excited the Yankees with the progress he made with his secondary pitches” since the draft, and adds “New York sees him as a potential three-pitch starter but he could wind up as a flamethrowing reliever.” Either outcome would be fantastic for an 11th round pick and a $147,500 bonus. I’m glad I wasn’t the only person to consider Myatt a top 30 prospect in the organization this spring. I must’ve watched this video of him carving up Instructional League hitters a dozen times over the winter.

5. The Yankees are really short on infield talent. There is one (1) infielder on MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects list. That is SS Thairo Estrada, who is coming back from what was essentially a lost season. That’s it. He’s the best infield prospect in the organization. The Yankees are very deep in pitching (21 pitchers in the top 30) and Florial, Pereira, and Cabello give them some high-end outfield talent. The infield? Not so much. Granted, having Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar at the big league level lessens the need infield prospects, but the infield is a weakness in the farm system right now. Recent international signees like SS Ronny Rojas, SS Roberto Chirinos, and SS Oswald Peraza could help correct the infield deficiency in the coming years. At this time last year the Yankees were short on catchers. Now they’re short on infielders. I don’t believe the Yankees specifically drafted Seigler and Breaux to address their catching shortage last year and I don’t think they’d prioritize infielders early in the draft this year either. At the top of the draft, you have to take the best talent regardless of position. Drafting for need is pointless because it’s so difficult to project what you’ll need three or four years down the line, when that prospect is big league ready. That all said, it would certainly be convenient if the best available player is an infielder when the Yankees make their first few draft picks this summer. The system needs an infield infusion.

Minor League Notes: System & Prospect Ranks, Diaz, Stowers

February 18, 2019 by Mike

Major League Spring Training opened last week but minor league camp is still a few weeks away. Minor league camp doesn’t open until early March. A bunch of prospects are already working out at the complex in Tampa though. Anyway, here’s one last link back to my Top 30 Prospect List and here are some minor league notes.

Baseball America, Keith Law release farm system rankings

Both Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Keith Law (subs. req’d) released their annual farm system rankings in recent days, and they both have the Padres and Rays ranked first and second, respectively. Their lists diverge from there. They ranked the Yankees similarly:

Baseball America (20th): “After graduating Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar the last two years, the system has dropped without an elite, near-ready prospect, but they are deep in young pitching.”
Keith Law (19th): “The Yankees’ top end has thinned out significantly, but from low-A down they at least have a strong collection of guys who show enough to grab your attention — elite speed or power, big velocity, huge spin rates — and create some potential trade value.”

Readers ask me where I think the farm system ranks every week in our chat, and I’ve been saying the 15-20 range since the Justus Sheffield trade. Bottom half of the league but closer to middle of the pack than last. The Yankees are loaded with high-end kids in the low minors, so the potential is there for rapid improvement. That’s also a risky profile. There is lots of boom or bust potential in the system and the rankings reflect that.

Law, FG, BP release top Yankees prospects lists

FanGraphs, Keith Law (subs. req’d), and Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) all released their top Yankees prospects lists recently and they go well beyond the top ten. FanGraphs ranked 38 (!) prospects and their list is free. Go read all the scouting reports. Law ranked 20 players and mentioned ten others. Baseball Prospectus ranked 15 and mentioned another four. Here are the top tens:

FanGraphs
1. OF Estevan Florial
2. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
3. RHP Deivi Garcia
4. OF Antonio Cabello
5. RHP Roansy Contreras
6. RHP Albert Abreu
7. OF Everson Pereira
8. C Anthony Seigler
9. RHP Luis Gil
10. RHP Clarke Schmidt

Keith Law
1. RHP Deivi Garcia
2. OF Everson Pereira
3. OF Estevan Florial
4. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
5. C Anthony Seigler
6. RHP Freicer Perez
7. RHP Clarke Schmidt
8. RHP Albert Abreu
9. OF Anthony Cabello
10. SS Thairo Estrada

Baseball Prospectus
1. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
2. OF Estevan Florial
3. OF Antonio Cabello
4. RHP Deivi Garcia
5. OF Everson Pereira
6. RHP Luis Gil
7. RHP Mike King
8. RHP Roansy Contreras
9. RHP Clarke Schmidt
10. RHP Chance Adams

Law picked Cabello as his sleeper for 2019. “Cabello has so much upside that I even had suggestions to put him in my top 100, although I think that would have been premature. But he could belong in a year,” says the write-up. He also notes the big money 2014-15 international signings (3B Nelson Gomez, OF Juan De Leon, OF Jonathan Amundaray, etc.) have flamed out. “Only (SS Hoy Jun) Park looks like he might ever even see a day in the majors,” he writes. The spending spree was a good idea but wow did it not work out as expected. Lotta money for nothing.

FanGraphs posted their top 132 prospects list last week, which had Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the top spot, and included only one Yankee: Florial at No. 106. Why is Loaisiga above Florial in the Yankees top ten but not on the top 132 list? Beats me. In a separate piece FanGraphs looked at players they expect to be a top 100 prospect next year. Cabello, OF Kevin Alcantara, and RHP Trevor Stephan are among them. The Yankees gave Alcantara a $1M bonus last summer and all indications are he is about to become a Very Big Deal.

Yankees connected to another top international free agent

Last week we learned the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican OF Jasson Dominguez when the 2019-20 international signing period opens July 2nd. Dominguez is considered the best available player this summer and he’s expected to receive a massive bonus in the $5M range. Ben Badler (subs. req’d) now connects the Yankees to another top international player, Dominican OF Jhon Diaz. From Badler:

Diaz is smaller than the other top players in the class, but he’s one of the most skilled game players for 2019. He’s a lefty who consistently performs well in games with a quick, simple swing and a knack for barreling the ball against live pitching. He’s a center fielder with good defensive instincts and one of the smartest baseball IQ players in the country.

Diaz looks like he’s about nine years old in the video embedded above. Total opposite of Dominguez, who looks like a grown man (in the very limited video I can find).

Badler says the Red Sox were expected to sign Diaz but “more recently there’s been buzz” about the Yankees signing him. That’s not as firm a connection as Dominguez, but it is a connection nonetheless. The bonus pools will be announced in a few weeks and the Yankees figure to be in the $5M to $5.25M range. They’ll have to trade for additional pool space to sign anyone other than Dominguez. (Teams can trade for an additional 60% of their pool. It used to be 75%. Now it’s 60%.)

Yankees were ready to draft Stowers

In the least surprising news ever, George King (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees were ready to select OF Josh Stowers with their second round pick last summer. The Mariners beat them to the punch and grabbed Stowers with the 54th overall pick. The Yankees held the 61st overall selection and used it on C Josh Breaux. They got their man last month when they acquired Stowers from the Mariners in the Sonny Gray three-team trade.

“We had him rated in the vicinity of 50th (overall), close to the bottom of the second round. He can run and is a basestealer who plays center field and has power. He is a very good athlete. The ceiling on him is he has power and speed,” said scouting director Damon Oppenheimer to King. As soon as the trade went down, I figured Stowers was someone the Yankees had targeted in the draft last year. I assume the LHP Ronald Roman situation is similar. He’s a 17-year-old kid the Diamondbacks signed as an international free agent last summer. The Yankees got Roman, who has yet to play a pro game, in the Tim Locastro trade last month. They probably tried to sign him last summer.

Florial, King headline 2019 Spring Training non-roster invitees

February 1, 2019 by Mike

In the surest sign Spring Training is fast approaching, the Yankees announced their list of non-roster invitees earlier today. The farm system has thinned out — most of the prospect star power is in the lower minors — and, as a result, the non-roster list is largely devoid of big name youngsters. Lot of journeyman and minor league depth guys. So it goes.

As a reminder, all players on the 40-man roster will be in big league camp automatically. That includes notable prospects like Albert Abreu and Domingo Acevedo. Here are the 21 non-roster invitees:

PITCHERS (10)
LHP Rex Brothers
LHP Nestor Cortes
RHP Cale Coshow
LHP Danny Coulombe
RHP Raynel Espinal
RHP Danny Farquhar
RHP David Hale
RHP Drew Hutchison
RHP Mike King
RHP Brady Lail

CATCHERS (4)
Francisco Diaz
Kellin Deglan
Ryan Lavarnway
Jorge Saez

INFIELDERS (3)
1B Mike Ford
SS Kyle Holder
3B Gio Urshela

OUTFIELDERS (4)
Trey Amburgey
Billy Burns
Estevan Florial
Matt Lipka

The Farquhar, Hale, Lavarnway, Saez, and Urshela minor league contracts are now official. The Brothers, Coulombe, Hutchison, Burns, and Lipka deals had been previously announced. Also, Lail and Deglan are back on minor league contracts. Both became minor league free agents after last season and have rejoined the team.

Florial and King are the two headliners among the non-roster invitees. Florial is the top prospect in the organization (at least in my opinion) and King was last year’s breakout pitcher, climbing three levels to reach Triple-A and put himself on the cusp of a big league call-up. I don’t think King has much of a chance to make the Opening Day roster but he could put himself in position to be the first starter called up when a need arises.

Last week I predicted 22 non-roster invitees. I didn’t have Deglan, Hale, or Saez on my list because they were not in the organization at the time, and I had Coshow and Ford on the outside looking in. Righties Nick Nelson and Clarke Schmidt are the two notable prospects who I thought would get a non-roster invite but didn’t. Schmidt is understandable because he’s just back from Tommy John surgery. Nelson? Dunno. Guess the Yankees don’t think the big stuff/poor command righty is ready for big league camp.

The Yankees currently have two bullpen spots and one bench spot up for grabs. I think Tommy Kahnle and Luis Cessa are the front-runners for the two bullpen spots. Not sure about the bench spot. Could be Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade, one of the non-roster guys, or a player yet to be acquired.

Wednesday Notes: Top 110 Prospects, Cessa, German, Loaisiga

January 30, 2019 by Mike

In two weeks pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa and Spring Training will begin. Will Manny Machado or Bryce Harper sign before then? I’m starting to think no. Would be pretty embarrassing for baseball if two 26-year-old superstars are unemployed when Spring Training opens, I think. Anyway, here are some notes and links to check out.

Three Yankees among Law’s top 110 prospects

Over the last few days Keith Law released his top 110 prospects list for the 2019 season: Nos. 1-50, Nos. 51-100, and Nos. 101-110. Everything is behind the paywall, though I will tell you Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as Law’s top prospect, not Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Vlad Jr. is second.) Three Yankees make the top 110:

61. RHP Deivi Garcia
101. OF Everson Pereira
106. OF Estevan Florial

Law says Garcia “at least looks like he is built from the same mold as guys such as (Marcus) Stroman and Roy Oswalt,” meaning a short righty who can stick as a starter. He adds Pereira might’ve made the top 100 had he not missed time with injury last year. “(The) raw tools and the fact that he still hit .263/.322/.389 despite his youth mark him as a potential top-50 guy for next year,” says the write-up.

Like Baseball America, Law kept Florial out of his top 100 for pitch recognition issues. (Florial wasn’t in Law’s top 100 last year either.) And, given his injury history, I’m not surprised RHP Jonathan Loaisiga didn’t make the top 110 or even the honorable mentions. Loaisiga has top 100 stuff and control, but not top 100 health. The only former Yankees prospect to crack Law’s top 110 list is Mariners LHP Justus Sheffield, who ranked 34th. He went to Seattle in the James Paxton trade.

Yankees received calls on Cessa, German, Loaisiga

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have received trade calls this offseason on depth starters Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Obviously the Yankees haven’t received an offer to their liking given the fact all three righties remain in the organization. Loaisiga’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now. Given his injury history, I wouldn’t be against cashing him as a trade chip.

The Yankees (finally) traded Sonny Gray two weeks ago and they’ve yet to sign a swingman type to replace him, not unless you count Drew Hutchison or David Hale. Cessa, German, Loaisiga, and Chance Adams are the Nos. 6-9 starters in whatever order. Cessa is out of options, so trading him would be preferable to potentially losing him on waivers for nothing, but I’m not sure the Yankees would get much in return. Cessa is probably more valuable to the Yankees as a depth piece than anything he could fetch in a trade. Same with German.

Nike, not Under Armour, will be MLB’s next uniform supplier

Earlier this month MLB announced a new ten-year agreement that makes Nike the league’s new uniform supplier beginning in 2020. Nike will replace Majestic. A few years ago Under Armour was in talks to take over as the league’s uniform supplier, but that deal fell apart, and Nike swooped in. The Under Armour logo would’ve appeared on the jersey chest, like so:

The Associated Press reports the Nike swoosh logo “likely will move to a more prominent position on jersey fronts,” though no details were announced. Currently the Majestic logo appears only on uniform sleeves, and the Yankees have an exemption. There’s no Majestic logo on their jerseys. I would be surprised if they get a similar exemption in the Nike deal. Much like the New Era logo on the side of caps, it probably won’t be long before you stop noticing the Nike logo on jersey fronts.

Yankees hire first ever Environment Science Advisor

The Yankees have hired Dr. Allen Hershkowitz as their new Environmental Science Advisor, the team announced. It’s the first position of its kind in pro sports. “The Yankees have always been devoted to supporting the best interests of our community, our fans and our players, and we believe effective eco-friendly initiatives are a key element of our interactions,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement.

Teams around the league have taken up green initiatives but never before has a sports club hired someone for the express purpose of helping them become more environmentally friendly. The Yankees say Hershkowitz will have a “primary focus on the areas of energy use, waste management, water conservation, and food services.” I imagine it’s only a matter of time until this catches on around the league and other teams invest in environmental advisors.

Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus release 2019 top 100 prospects lists

January 23, 2019 by Mike

Top 100 prospect ranking season has officially arrived. Earlier today Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Baseball Prospectus (no subs. req’d) both released their annual top 100 lists. Well, Baseball Prospectus released a top 101 list. Everyone else releases a top 100 list.

As noted earlier, the Yankees did not have anyone on Baseball America’s list. Kyle Glaser said OF Estevan Florial did receive consideration for the top 100, but concerns about his pitch recognition kept him off the list. Pitch recognition is the biggest development hurdle for Florial going forward.

The Yankees did have two prospects on the Baseball Prospectus list, however. Here are those two along with some other notable prospects:

1. 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
11. OF Taylor Trammell, Reds (Yankees asked for him in Sonny Gray trade talks)
50. LHP Justus Sheffield, Mariners (traded to the Mariners for James Paxton)
64. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
66. OF Estevan Florial

Baseball America also had Vlad Jr. in the top spot. That kid will be A Problem. Baseball America had Sheffield at No. 27 and Trammel at No. 33. Sheffield ranked as their 12th best pitching prospect overall and their third best left-handed pitching prospect behind A’s LHP Jesus Luzardo and A’s LHP A.J. Puk.

As for the two Yankees prospects, Loaisiga over Florial surprises me a bit, especially because Baseball Prospectus tends to skew toward upside and long-term potential with their rankings. Loaisiga’s really good but he also comes with a ton of injury risk. Then again, the difference between No.64 and No. 66 on a top 100 list is nothing, so I wouldn’t sweat it.

MLB.com will announce their top 100 list during a live MLB Network broadcast this weekend (8pm ET on Saturday). Keith Law’s top 100 is due out sometime next week. I reckon we’ll see Florial on both lists. Loaisiga is a maybe only because that injury history is scary. There are healthier pitchers with similar potential in the minors who figure to rank ahead of him.

Previewing the Yankees’ potential non-roster Spring Training invitees for 2019

January 22, 2019 by Mike

Three weeks from tomorrow pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa to begin Spring Training 2019. And, at some point between now and then, the Yankees will announce their non-roster invitees. Those are non-40-man roster players they are bringing to Major League Spring Training. All other non-40-man players go to minor league camp at the Himes Complex across the street.

Non-roster invitees come in all shapes and sizes. Some are top prospects and some are mid-range prospects. Others are veteran journeymen trying to hang on. Teams usually bring 20-25 non-roster players to camp each last year. Last spring the Yankees had 20 non-roster players in camp. Two years ago it was 23. Expect a similar amount this spring. The 40-man roster plus 20-25 non-roster invitees equals 60-65 total players in Spring Training.

So, with the non-roster invitee list due to be announced in the near future, I figured this is as good a time as any to look at the minor leaguers who could find themselves in big league camp this year. Some are obvious. Many aren’t. Let’s break this down position-by-position.

Catchers

(40-Man Roster Players: Kyle Higashioka, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez)

Every year every team invites a bunch of non-roster catchers to Spring Training. Why? Because who else is supposed to catch all those bullpen sessions and simulated games? The workload has to be spread around. And remember, Sanchez is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery. It was his non-throwing shoulder, but still. The Yankees will take it easy on him in February and March because they don’t want to put him at risk of missing time between April and November. Expect to see plenty of non-roster catchers against this spring.

Do not, however, expect to see Anthony Seigler or Josh Breaux, the Yankees’ top two picks in last year’s draft. It is not the appropriate place for them at this point of their careers. Only once in the last 13 years have the Yankees brought their first round pick in the previous year’s draft to Spring Training as a non-roster player. That was James Kaprielian in 2016. Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain didn’t even get non-roster invites in 2007. Seigler and Breaux won’t be in big league camp. It’s not their time.

My Prediction: Francisco Diaz, Ryan Lavarnway, Ryan Lidge, Donny Sands. Add in the three 40-man roster guys and that’s seven catchers total. Plenty for bullpens. Lavarnway signed a minor league deal and has big league time, so it’s safe to assume he’ll be a non-roster guy. Diaz has been a non-roster invitee each of the last three years. The Yankees re-signed him as a minor league free agent a few weeks ago and I’m sure he’ll again be in camp as a non-roster guy.

Lidge was the Yankees’ 20th round pick in 2017 and he played most of his games last year with Double-A Trenton. A catcher with Double-A time is prime “someone to catch spring bullpens” fodder. I’m on the fence about Sands. He has no Double-A time and only 42 High-A games under his belt. I’m just not sure who else it would be with Chace Numata and Jorge Saez, non-roster catchers last year, no longer in the organization. Maybe the Yankees have a low profile catcher signing coming? I could see it. I feel good about Diaz, Lavarnway, and Lidge. The seventh spot is a little more wide open.

Infielders

(40-Man Roster Players: Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Thairo Estrada, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade)

The Yankees currently have nine infielders on the 40-man roster. Nine! That’s a ton. One of them is Gregorius, who won’t actually play in Spring Training because he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but eight 40-man infielders is still a lot. Torres and Andujar are locked into positions now — that wasn’t the case last spring — but there’s the Tulowitzki comeback attempt and LeMahieu learning how to be a utility guy, so there will be some infield intrigue in Spring Training.

Almost every notable infield prospect in the organization is already on the 40-man roster. Kyle Holder is the exception. He was in camp as a non-roster player last spring. He also played only 48 games last season due to injury and family matters, and he was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. I still think the Yankees like him enough to bring him to camp as a non-roster guy. Holder’s a relatively recent high draft pick and gosh can the kid play defense. If you stuck around to watch the late innings of Grapefruit League games last year, you saw him play a beautiful shortstop.

Lower level infield prospects like Diego Castillo, Dermis Garcia, and Hoy Jun Park are not non-roster caliber players. Not right now and, given their development in recent years, maybe not ever. In most other years I’d be tempted to say Brandon Wagner is a non-roster candidate. He reached Double-A last season and finished one off the farm system home run lead. That said, there will be so many 40-man roster infielders in camp this year that I think Wagner gets squeezed out. There are only so many at-bats to go around.

My Prediction: Holder and Gio Urshela. Urshela, like Lavarnway, signed a minor league deal earlier this offseason and has big league time. He’ll be in Spring Training as a non-roster dude. Holder, Urshela, and the 40-man roster guys give the Yankees ten infielders for camp, not including Gregorius. Voit and Bird are the only true first basemen among those ten, but LeMahieu is apparently going to play some first, and both Lavarnway and Diaz have played the position as well. Maybe we’ll even see Andujar at first base. Either way, the Yankees are covered.

Outfielders

(40-Man Roster Players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton)

Frazier was recently cleared to play in Spring Training and that’s great news. I’m looking forward to seeing what he does with good health this season. Ellsbury, on the other hand, is coming back from hip surgery and a few weeks ago Brian Cashman admitted Ellsbury is questionable for Opening Day. If he’s questionable for Opening Day, then he’s questionable for Spring Training. So that’s really five healthy 40-man roster outfielders.

The Yankees have several near elite center field prospects but only one, Estevan Florial, will get a Spring Training invite. He was in camp as a non-roster player last spring and will be back this year as the team’s top prospect. Others like Everson Pereira and Antonio Cabello will be in minor league camp. Pereira is 17 and Cabello is 18. They are babies. Big league camp is not the right place for them. (Also, Cabello is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery, which is another reason to send him to minor league camp.)

With only five healthy 40-man roster outfielders — and one of those five was only recently cleared for full-fledged baseball activities — it seems to me the Yankees will bring at least one upper level depth outfielder to camp as a non-roster player. The likely candidates: Trey Amburgey, Jeff Hendrix, and Zack Zehner. Hendrix saw quite a bit of time as a minor league call-up in road games last spring. Amburgey is the best prospect of the bunch though, and prospect status tends to break ties.

My Prediction: Amburgey, Florial, Billy Burns, Matt Lipka. Burns and Lipka signed minor league deals earlier this month and the Yankees officially announced both contracts include an invitation to Spring Training, so there you go. There’s no mystery here. They’ll be there. Amburgey, Burns, Florial, and Lipka plus the five healthy 40-man roster guys would give the Yankees nine outfielders in Spring Training. Wade can play the outfield too, so that’s ten. That’s plenty. Part of me wonders if we’ll see LeMahieu out there at some point.

Right-handers

(40-Man Roster Players: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, Chance Adams, Dellin Betances, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Chad Green, Joe Harvey, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and eventually Adam Ottavino)

Heller is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so he’s a Spring Training non-factor. I’m looking forward to seeing Abreu and Acevedo in Grapefruit League action, personally. Abreu missed camp last year after having his appendix removed and Acevedo was held back because he spent part of the offseason recovering from a shoulder issue and his velocity was down. I also want to see Harvey because I’ve never seen him before, and Kahnle because I’m curious about his velocity. Hopefully it returns.

Anyway, the Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects. Too bad so many of them are in the low minors. You’re not going to see Luis Medina or Roansy Contreras or even Deivi Garcia in big league camp. Garcia is at best a maybe. I’m not saying that because I don’t like him as a prospect. I do. I’m saying that because history suggests the Yankees will not bring a 19-year-old pitching prospect to big league camp. It’s just not something they do. It’s not something many teams do, in fact.

The second tier pitching prospects though, the 20-somethings with Double-A (and in some cases Triple-A) time? We’ll see a few in camp. Always do. Mike King is an obvious yes. Do what he did last year while reaching Triple-A and you’ve earned yourself a non-roster invite. There’s a pretty good chance King will be called up at some point in 2019 and the Yankees will want him to get to know his teammates and coaches before that, and vice versa. Spring Training is the time to do it. King’s as easy a yes as it gets.

Nick Nelson, Trevor Stephan, and Garrett Whitlock are all potential non-roster candidates as well. So is Clarke Schmidt, the Yankees’ first round pick two years ago, in my opinion. He completed his Tommy John surgery rehab last season and pitched well in his limited game action. The Yankees are set to turn him loose this year and my hunch is that includes a Spring Training invite. He’ll probably be among the first cuts, but I think he’ll be there.

My Prediction: King, Nelson, Schmidt, Raynel Espinal, Danny Farquhar, Drew Hutchison, Brady Lail, one TBD spot. The Yankees reportedly want a swingman/sixth starter type to replace Sonny Gray, hence that TBD spot. Maybe they wind up getting a lefty instead. I’ll play the odds and predict a righty. Anyway, Farquhar and Hutchison signed minor league deals and have big league time, so they’ll be in camp. In fact, the Yankees announced Hutchison’s deal includes a spring invite, so there you go.

Lail’s been a non-roster guy each of the last three years — the Yankees seem to like him despite never calling him up or protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft — and I see no reason to think this spring will be any different. Espinal was a non-roster guy last year and he had a strong Triple-A season, so I think he’s back as well. He’s a potential inventory arm, someone who comes up in an emergency, and candidates for an emergency call-up usually get a Spring Training invite.

I’m going with Nelson over Stephan and Whitlock because, well, I’m kinda guessing here. I think at least one of those three gets a non-roster invite, and Nelson is both the oldest and has been in the system the longest, so I think it’ll be him. If the Yankees bring any other righties to big league camp, I think it’s more likely it’ll be a random Triple-A reliever like Cale Coshow or J.P. Feyereisen than Stephan or Whitlock. Between Hutchison, King, Nelson, and Schmidt, that is plenty of extra multi-inning pitchers.

Left-handers

(40-Man Roster Players: Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery, James Paxton, CC Sabathia, Stephen Tarpley)

Montgomery is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and we won’t see him in Grapefruit League games. We might not even see him throw bullpens in Spring Training. Montgomery had his elbow rebuild in June and pitchers usually don’t get back up on a mound until 8-10 months into the rehab process. He’ll just be getting to that point as Spring Training begins, which means little to no action. A bummer, but not a surprise.

The Yankees do not have any notable left-handed pitching prospects now that Justus Sheffield (and Josh Rogers) has been traded. Their best lefty pitching prospect is, uh, Nestor Cortes? Phil Diehl? Not great. Diehl had a statistically excellent 2018 season (2.51 ERA and 2.24 FIP with 36.2% strikeouts and 7.7% walks) and the Yankees had him throw simulated at-bats to Judge late in the season, when Judge was coming back from his wrist injury, which tells us the Yankees trust Diehl’s control. Otherwise they wouldn’t have let him pitch to the most valuable player in the organization and risk his wrist getting hit again. Maybe they’ll bring him to camp? Dunno.

My Prediction: Cortes, Diehl, Rex Brothers, Danny Coulombe. Brothers and Coulombe are on minor league contracts and both have quite a bit of big league time, so we know they’ll be in camp. Cortes was in big league camp with the Orioles as a Rule 5 Draft pick last spring — he even made their Opening Day roster — and he had yet another statistically excellent season last year. I think that’s enough to get him to Spring Training this year. Diehl is the token extra lefty reliever.

* * *

Alright, so putting that all together, we come away with 22 potential non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Those 22 players:

Catchers (4): Diaz, Lavarnway, Lidge, Sands or a TBD catcher
Infielders (2): Holder, Urshela
Outfielders (4): Amburgey, Burns, Florial, Lipka
Righties (8): Espinal, Farquhar, Hutchison, King, Lail, Nelson, Schmidt, TBD
Lefties (4): Brothers, Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl

On one hand, the Yankees had 20 non-roster players in camp last year, 23 the year before that, and 26 in each of the two years before that. Twenty-two this year would be a typical number of non-roster players. On the other hand, the Yankees have at least three (Ellsbury, Heller, Montgomery) and possibly four (Sanchez) 40-man roster players who will be either restricted or completely off-limits in Spring Training. The Yankees might carry more non-roster players than usual to cover for the rehabbing 40-man roster guys.

The farm system isn’t as strong or as deep as it was a few years ago, mostly because the Yankees have graduated so many of their top prospects to the big leagues. Remember when we all couldn’t wait to see Torres or Judge or Severino in camp as non-roster guys? Now they’re no doubt big leaguers. Florial and King will be the obvious “must see” prospects on this year’s non-roster list and, if they get invited, Nelson and Schmidt will be worth watching as well. Also, bet on there being some surprise non-roster invitees this spring. There are always a few.

Estevan Florial and what he needs to improve to develop into a truly elite prospect

January 7, 2019 by Mike

MLB teams are developing young players better than ever. We’re seeing kids come up from the minors and have an immediate impact much more often than in the past. Consider that, in the 2010s, there have been 188 rookies who put up a +2 WAR season. There’s still one year to go in the 2010s too. Only 174 did it in the 2000s and only 145 did it in the 1990s. Teams are quite good at player development.

That includes the Yankees, of course. Within the last few years their farm system has produced Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and others. That’s the foundation of a 100-win ballclub right there. The farm system isn’t as strong as it was two years ago, but that’s okay. Just about all the top prospects are now productive big leaguers. Others were used in trades for MLB help. That’s what a farm system’s for.

The best prospect remaining in the Yankees’ farm system is center fielder Estevan Florial, who is a year removed from an excellent season. In 476 mostly Single-A plate appearances, Florial hit .298/.372/.479 (145 wRC+) as a 19-year-old in 2017. Here is the wRC+ leaderboard for teenage outfielders in 2017 (min. 400 plate appearances to remove short season ball players):

Ronald Acuna, Braves: 155 wRC+
Estevan Florial, Yankees: 145 wRC+
Taylor Trammell, Reds: 131 wRC+
Jesus Sanchez, Rays: 130 wRC+
Khalil Lee, Royals: 125 wRC+

There’s Acuna in his own little tier, Florial in his own little tier, then everyone else. Statistically, Florial had a crazy impressive 2017 season. His 2018 season did not go as well. He authored a .255/.354/.361 (110 wRC+) batting line in 339 High-A plate appearances, which is quite good for a 20-year-old in a vacuum, but is below expectations given what Florial did a year ago. We were all expecting a little more.

A fractured hamate bone and subsequent surgery split Florial’s season into two. He missed close to two months and his High-A numbers before the injury (107 wRC+ in 156 plate appearances) were not significantly different than his High-A numbers after the injury (112 wRC+ in 183 plate appearances). Florial did absolutely annihilate rookie ball during his rehab assignment (330 wRC+ in nine games), which I guess is cool, but it is only nine games.

Florial turned 21 in November and he’ll head into 2019 as both the top prospect in the farm system and also a player looking to rebound from a difficult season. It’s tough to know how much the wrist injury impacted his performance. Chances are he played through some discomfort before finally having the surgery, and wrist surgery is notorious for sapping a player’s power even after he’s deemed healthy and ready for game action.

“It’s tough. He’s a young, highly physically talented athlete that’s honing his craft, and then he got taken offline,” said Brian Cashman to Brendan Kuty last month. “I know our development people were feeling that he’s starting to unlock certain keys that were going to take him to another level and then boom, the injury hit and took him offline completely. When you do these hamate surgeries and you take off, you’re usually not … back to full strength until a year later.”

Florial is not lacking natural ability. He’s a high-end athlete and a physical specimen at 6-foot-1 and 185 pounds. He can run, he can throw, and the ball jumps off his bat. You don’t see many 19-year-olds driving balls over the fence to the opposite field like this:

Florial lacks two things right now. One is good health. He’ll be nine months out from wrist surgery when Spring Training opens next month and hopefully that means he’ll be fully recovered. Wrist trouble can linger a bit, even through an offseason of rest. If it does, there’s not much the Yankees and Florial can do other than wait until the strength in the wrist is all the way back.

The second is pitch recognition. Florial has walked a good deal in his career to date (11.1% walk rate), but minor league walk rates are notoriously fickle, and that is especially true the further away you get from the big leagues. There are a lot of pitchers in rookie ball and Single-A ball who are chucking the ball from the mound and hoping it’s over the plate. A good deal of them can’t throw three strikes before they throw four balls.

Pitch recognition though, the ability to discern a fastball from a slider, a grooved heater from a changeup, a curveball in the zone from a curveball that’ll spike in the dirt, that’s what Florial must improve. He’s struck out in 27.3% of his career plate appearances and, in the Arizona Fall League this year, advanced pitchers picked him apart. Here’s what a scout told Randy Miller in October:

“I’m seeing what I’ve seen in the past at the plate. He’s still swinging and missing. He’s chasing bad pitches out of the zone, especially late in counts. When he gets in pitchers’ counts, he’s chasing the pitchers’ out pitches … As Florial gets older, he’ll figure out how guys are pitching him and he’ll learn to lay off pitches.”

Pitch recognition is the great separator. Hitters who can discern pitches thrive and those who can’t often struggle. A lack of pitch recognition is not a total dealbreaker — guys like Jeff Francoeur and Jose Guillen had long MLB careers despite seemingly having no idea what pitchers were trying to do to them — but it is a significant obstacle. A lack of pitch recognition has prevented countless talented players from reaching their ceiling.

Although the overall numbers were underwhelming, it is encouraging Florial cut his strikeout rate (27.6% to 25.7%) and swing-and-miss rate (16.8% to 13.1%) as he jumped from Low-A to High-A this past season. It suggests (but does not confirm) pitch recognition improvement. It’s one of those things that is difficult to see statistically, if it is possible at all. You need to watch at-bats and read swings to evaluate pitch recognition.

Florial is a four-tool player and the one tool he’s missing is consistent contact ability. Plate discipline and pitch recognition are a part of that. Generally speaking, Florial can tell a ball from a strike. His issues are with telling a fastball from a breaking ball, things like that. That “four-tool player and the one he’s missing is contact” profile is dangerous. It’s more likely to produce Drew Stubbs than Christian Yelich, you know?

No prospect is truly a can’t miss, but Florial is less of a can’t miss than Torres or Judge or Sanchez, if that makes sense. He’s loaded with natural ability and that’s great. Give me tools and athleticism. He also has some very real flaws to correct, specifically with his pitch recognition, and that’ll determine whether he develops into a legitimate core piece or just an okay complementary player. At 21, he has time to improve all aspects of his game, and this season I hope to see more contact and more overall refinement in Florial’s game.

“We’re excited to see what he’s going to do as he takes his steps,” Cashman added. “His makeup … is just fantastic. He’s really smart and obviously physically gifted. So we have high hopes for him. But he’s young and he’s raw. He’s got time to put in still.”