River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Gary Sanchez

Yankeemetrics: Bombers streaking, sweep Twins (April 23-26)

by Leave a Comment

(AP)

Lucky 14
The Yankees welcomed their longtime punching bag –- the Twins –- to the Bronx for a four-game set starting Monday, and predictably whipped them, 14-1, in the opener.

Entering this year the Yankees owned a 78-31 (.716) regular-season record against the Twins since 2002 (the last time they lost a season series to the Twins was 2001!). That’s the highest win percentage by any team in a head-to-head non-Interleague matchup over the last 16 seasons. Including the postseason, that record improves to a whopping 91-33 since 2002, or the equivalent of 118 wins over a 162-game schedule.

Miguel Andujar continued to swing a scorching-hot bat, homering in the second inning and doubling in the sixth to extend his streak of games with an extra-base hit to seven games. That tied Joe DiMaggio (1937) and Mickey Mantle (1955) for the longest such streak in franchise history by a player age 23-or-younger. Andujar also joined A-Rod (twice in 2007) as the only Yankee third baseman with an extra-base hit in seven (or more) games over the last 75 seasons.

Giancarlo Stanton broke out of his early-season Bronx slump with a 4-for-4, 2-RBI night. The four hits on Monday were one fewer than he had in his first 12 games combined at Yankee Stadium this season.

Didi Gregorius put an exclamation point on the rout with his second career grand slam in the eighth inning, boosting the lead to 12-1. The only other shortstops since 1925 to hit multiple grand slams in their Yankee careers were Frankie Crosetti (3), Phil Rizzuto (2) and Fred Stanley (2).

Gleyber Torres singled in the eighth, getting not only his first career major-league hit but also earning our #FunFact of the game: He became the youngest Yankee infielder with a hit in a game since a rookie named Derek Jeter in 1995.

(AP)

Rinse, repeat, another rout
The Yankees lived up to their Bronx Bombers nickname for a second straight night, belting four home runs en route to an easy 8-3 win on Tuesday.

The fireworks were supplied by the usual suspects — Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Didi “I’m Not a Home Run Hitter” Gregorius — who went a combined 8-for-13 with four dingers while driving in seven of the team’s eight runs (alas, the rest of the lineup was 2-for-22).

Sanchez delivered two blasts for his ninth career multi-homer game. He’s the only player in major-league history to tally nine multi-homer games within his first 200 career games.

Judge smashed an opposite field shot in the seventh, showing off his ridiculous power to right field. Since the start of last season he is slugging 1.075 and has an isolated power of .626 on balls hit to the opposite field. Not only are those two marks the best in MLB, but he’s lapping the field by a wide margin. No other qualified hitter even has an oppo-field slugging percentage of .900 or an oppo-field isolated power of .500.

Didi contributed an RBI single in the third inning and then hit a booming two-run homer in the fifth, increasing his team-leading totals to 27 RBI and eight homers. He is the first shortstop in baseball history to reach each of those marks this early into the season. Among Yankees, only A-Rod during his 2007 MVP campaign and Babe Ruth in 1921 have matched or bettered Didi’s totals in the team’s first 22 games.

CC Sabathia was in late-career vintage form, generating tons of weakly-hit balls with his crafty mix of sliders, cutters and sinkers. Per Fangraphs, 50 percent of the 16 balls in play were categorized as “soft contact”, tied for the second-best rate in any game of his career.

Statcast measured his average exit velocity at 76.4 mph and all 16 batted balls against him were clocked below 90 mph. Since Statcast tracking began in 2015, he’s the only pitcher in the majors to allow at least 15 balls in play in a game, with none them coming off the bat at 90 mph or faster.

(Newsday)

Didi and Tyler’s World
Not even another ugly start from Sonny Gray could keep this pinstriped train from chugging to another win over the Twins. Thanks to their relentless offense, another power barrage and a lockdown performance from the bullpen, the Yankees won their fifth game in a row, 7-4, on Wednesday night.

Another game, another dinger for the ridiculously hot Didi Gregorius. His game-tying solo shot in third inning –- his ninth of the season -– etched his name in the record books. He is the:

  • only shortstop in franchise history to go deep in four straight games
  • only Yankee shortstop with at least nine homers and 25 RBI in any calendar month
  • only shortstop in major-league history with at least nine homers and 25 RBI in April

For more context on Didi’s nine homers in 20 April games, consider this stat: In his first season as a Yankee in 2015 he hit nine homers in 155 games!

Tyler Austin delivered the game-changing hit, crushing a tie-breaking three-run homer in the third to give the Yankees a 5-2 lead they wouldn’t relinquish. It was his 12th career homer, and 10 of the 12 have either tied the game or given the Yankees the lead. He is slugging .914 with a 1.299 OPS in 35 career high-leverage at-bats. Since his rookie season in 2016, that’s easily the highest slugging percentage and OPS in high-leverage situations by any MLB player (min. 25 at-bats).

Gleyber Torres showed off his his lightning-quick bat speed with another two-hit performance, including his first career extra-base hit (a double in the fourth). He became the youngest Yankee with back-to-back multi-hit games since a 20-year-old Mickey Mantle pulled off the feat in 1952.

Kraken FTW
The Yankees capped off their sweep of the Twins in stunning fashion, with a dramatic walk-off win on a sunny Thursday afternoon in the Bronx. Gary Sanchez wore the hero’s cape as he crushed a three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth to turn a potential 3-1 loss into a thrilling 4-3 win.

Here’s a few #FunFacts to celebrate Gary’s first career walk-off hit. He is the …

  • First Yankee with a come-from-behind, walk-off blast against the Twins since Jason Giambi’s memorable game-ending grand slam on May 17, 2002.
  • Youngest Yankee since Don Mattingly on May 13, 1985 to hit a walk-off home run when trailing by multiple runs. Oh, and the losing team in that game? The Twins, of course.
  • Only Yankee catcher (since at least 1925) to hit a game-ending shot with his team facing a deficit of two runs or more.

There was little to celebrate about this game before El Gary snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the bottom of the ninth. Twins starter Kyle Gibson took a no-hitter into the sixth inning before Brett Gardner’s two-out single broke up the no-no. That was the only hit Gibson allowed in the game, and combined with his career-best 10 strikeouts, he joined an exclusive list of pitchers to allow one or fewer hits and strike out at least 10 Yankees in the Divisional Era (since 1969):

Date
Kyle Gibson April 26, 2018
Chris Sale May 22, 2014
Bartolo Colon Sept. 18, 2000
Pedro Martinez Sept. 10, 1999
Nolan Ryan Aug. 29, 1973

Yankeemetrics: Boston Bummer (April 10-12)

by Leave a Comment

(AP)

Humiliated in Beantown
There’s ugly losses and embarrassing games … and then there’s what the Red Sox did to the Yankees in the series-opening 14-1 rout at Fenway Park. Last year the Yankees’ worst loss was by seven runs; they were the only team that didn’t suffer a loss of eight-or-more runs. After Monday night’s debacle, they joined the Phillies and Marlins as the only teams this season to lose a game by at least 13 runs.

If you believe in the power of deja vu and strange coincidences, the last time the Yankees lost by the exact score of 14-1 was August 22, 2009. The opponent? Red Sox. The place? Fenway Park. And that 2009 season turned out okay ….

While some blame must be placed on the dead-bat offense and lack of clutch hitting, the implosion by the pitching staff — from top to bottom — was the most humiliating part of the game.

Three Yankee pitchers allowed at least four runs, just the second time in the last 25 seasons of this rivalry that had happened (the other game was July 15, 2005 in a 17-1 loss at Fenway). While Luis Severino looked bad and put the Yankees in an early hole, the meltdown by Tommy Kahnle and Chasen Shreve in a disastrous sixth inning essentially torched the game.

The nine runs coughed up by the two pitchers in that frame was the Yankees most allowed in an inning against the Red Sox in nearly two decades (May 31, 1998). Six of those runs were unearned, their most given up in any game at Fenway Park since April 10, 1985 — the Yankee debut of anti-legend Ed Whitson.

Kahnle was charged with five runs in two-thirds of an inning pitched, the first Yankee reliever since Ron Davis in 1981 to give up five-plus runs while getting fewer than two outs in a game at Fenway Park. Shreve gave up only one hit but it was a painful one — a grand slam to Mookie Betts that made it 14-1. Betts had a historic night at the plate, going 4-for-4 with five runs scored and four RBI. The only other player to score at least five runs and drive in at least four runs in a game against the Yankees was Ken Griffey Jr. on May 24, 1996.

One of the few blemishes on Aaron Judge’s historic rookie season was his .083/.233/.167 slash-line in nine games at Fenway Park. It was the worst batting average by any Yankee in a single season with at least 35 at-bats at the stadium.

He quickly slayed that dragon, going 3-for-4 with a mammoth 444-foot, 116.3 mph home run off Chris Sale in the fifth inning. Since Statcast began tracking data in 2015, it was the hardest-hit homer allowed by Sale and the second-longest homer allowed by Sale, behind a 451-foot blast from Tyler Flowers on July 8, 2016.

(AP)

Fight Night
The Yankees rebounded from Tuesday’s debacle with a 10-7 win, prevailing in an old-fashioned slugfest highlighted by dingers, haymakers and plenty of boiling-hot emotions. One day after scoring a single run on 10 hits, the Yankees pounded out 12 hits and plated 10 runs. It helps when you are 5-for-13 with RISP and 8-for-20 with runners on base, instead of 0-for-5 and 1-for-20 in those situations (as they did in the series opener).

Gary Sanchez busted out of his early-season slump with a monster game, going 3-for-5 with two homers, a double, three runs scored and three RBI. Entering Wednesday, there were 228 players with at least 30 plate appearances; Sanchez ranked 228th in batting average (.056), on-base percentage (.081), OPS (.248), wOBA (.112) and wRC+ (-41). Yeah, he was literally the worst hitter in baseball.

Sanchez’s epic night at the plate put him in elite company:

  • He became the only Yankee catcher with at least three extra-base hits and four RBI in a game against the Red Sox.
  • It was also his eighth career multi-homer game, the most ever for a player in his first 200 career games. Oh yeah, this was Gary’s 187th game in the majors.
  • Only four other Yankees had at least eight games with two-plus homers before their 26th birthday: Joe DiMaggio (17), Mickey Mantle (14), Lou Gehrig (13) and Joe Gordon (9). El Gary turns 26 on December 2, so he’s got the entire season to climb that list too.

Masahiro Tanaka was solid through the first four innings — his only blemish was a solo homer to Hanley Ramirez in the first inning — but completely unraveled in the fifth. After surrendering an RBI double to Mookie Betts and then loading the bases, he left a flat slider over the heart of plate and J.D. Martinez planted it 436 feet into the centerfield seats. Before Martinez, the last Red Sox cleanup hitter to hit a grand slam against the Yankees was Jim Rice in 1987.

It was the second time in two games that the Red Sox hit a slam against the Yankees, a remarkable feat considering that in 76 rivalry games from 2014-17, the Yankees gave up zero grand slams to Boston. The last time the Yankees allowed slams in back-to-back games against the Red Sox was when Juan Rivera and Mike Greenwell pulled it off in 1990.

It was also the fourth grand slam the Yankees have given up in 2018 — the most in the majors and the most ever for the franchise in the team’s first 12 games. The major-league record for a single season is 14 by the 1996 Tigers, and the most allowed by a Yankee pitching staff is nine in 2000. Stay tuned, folks.

(AP)

A Miserable Gray-day
The Yankees dropped the rubber game Thursday, 6-3, a score that looks much closer than the lifeless brand of baseball the team played for much of the night. The best part about the game was … they didn’t get no-hit?

Sonny Gray was as awful as the weather at Fenway, getting rocked for six runs before getting pulled in the fourth inning. He also squeezed in three wild pitches and a hit batter. If that sounds hard to do, you are correct! For that horrible performance, Gray earned our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: He is the first Yankee pitcher ever to give up at least six earned runs, throw at least three wild pitches and hit a batter in an outing of fewer than five innings.

And following his latest clunker, Gray’s career ERA at Fenway Park stood at 8.66 in four starts, with 36 baserunners allowed (28 hits, 8 walks) in 17 2/3 innings. He’s also 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox since joining the Yankees last July.

Aaron Judge was the first hero of the night, breaking up Rick Porcello’s no-hitter with a booming lead-off double to deep center in the seventh inning. Judge entered that at-bat 1-for-12 in his career against Porcello. Gary Sanchez was the second hero of the night, ending the shutout with a three-RBI, bases-loaded double in the ninth. That gave him a .662 slugging percentage at Fenway Park, the highest by any Yankee at the ballpark (min. 60 PA), and just ahead of two guys named Babe Ruth (.634) and Roger Maris (.630).

Gary Sanchez, not Giancarlo Stanton, is the Yankees’ biggest problem on offense right now

by Leave a Comment

(Elsa/Getty)

Eleven games into the 2018 season, Giancarlo Stanton has yet to be the impact hitter he’s shown he can be throughout his career. Even before his MVP season last year, Stanton was a .266/.357/.539 (142 wRC+) career hitter who averaged 41 homers per 162 games, and that is undeniably great. We haven’t seen that guy yet, however.

The biggest beneficiary of Stanton’s early season slump? Gary Sanchez. Stanton and his strikeouts have been getting all the attention the last week or so, yet Sanchez has been the Yankees’ worst hitter in the early going, and it’s not even close. Two-hundred-and-twenty-eight players have at least 30 plate appearances so far this year. Here’s where Sanchez ranks among those 228:

  • AVG: .056 (228th)
  • OBP: .081 (228th)
  • SLG: .167 (220th)
  • wRC+: -42 (228th)

How go you interpret a negative wRC+? You interpret it as really freaking bad. It’s only eleven games, yes, but in those eleven games Sanchez has legitimately been the worst hitter in baseball. He is 2-for-36 with a homer, a homer that landed a few rows back in left field and elicited this reaction off the bat …

… and that reaction doesn’t exactly scream “hell yeah I got all of that one!” It just happened to clear the wall in the #LittleAssPark. Gary has been really freaking bad in the super early going. Stanton has also been bad, and because he’s the high profile offseason addition, everyone is focusing on him and Sanchez’s total lack of production is seemingly flying under the radar.

“As far as the hitting goes, when you’re that good a hitter and you’re as young as he is or in the prime of your career, that’s a matter of time,” said Aaron Boone to Brendan Kuty recently when asked about Sanchez’s slump. “It just means somebody’s going to pay at some point, so I don’t sweat that at all. That’ll come. What I’m excited about is the impact that he’s having on a daily basis behind the plate.”

Sanchez’s defense has been pretty good in the early going. He was never as bad as the pundits would lead you to believe, but through eleven games, Gary has looked very good defensively. He’s been terrible at the plate though, and the bat is what makes Sanchez special. There are plenty of no bat/good glove catchers out there. Sanchez is supposed to be an elite bat/good glove catcher, and we’ve yet to see it this year. A few things on Gary’s slump.

1. He’s not striking out. Stanton’s slow start has been an eyesore because he’s striking out so much. He’s struck out 22 times in 52 plate appearances, or 42.3%. Sanchez has struck out six times during his 2-for-36 start, which works out to a perfectly acceptable 16.2% strikeout rate. The league average strikeout rate this year is 22.7%. Last year it was 21.6%. If you could guarantee me Sanchez would maintain that 16.2% strikeout rate all season, I’d sign up for it right now no questions asked.

Furthermore, Sanchez’s swing-and-miss rate is 9.2%, down from 12.5% last year and below the 10.7% league average. It’s a small sample size. I know it is. The point is Sanchez’s slump has a different shape than Stanton’s. Giancarlo has had problems simply getting the bat on the ball. Gary has not. This has not been a strikeout fueled slump for Sanchez. This is a “the balls are not falling in” slump. The dude has a .034 BABIP. I mean, come on.

2. He’s not walking either. Sanchez hasn’t struck out excessively so far this season and he hasn’t walked either. Like, at all. Zero walks in 37 plate appearances. Believe it or not, Gary’s 37 plate appearances are only the sixth most among players with zero walks this year. Ozzie Albies has 50 plate appearances without a walk. Marcell Ozuna has 48 and Avisail Garcia has 47. Yikes.

Through 37 plate appearances Sanchez has seen only six three-ball counts, so that’s one three-ball count every six plate appearances, give or take. The league average is one three-ball count every 4.5 plate appearances. Sanchez has averaged 3.84 pitches per plate appearance so far, which is basically identical to last year (3.86), so it’s not like he’s having shorter than usual at-bats. The walks just haven’t come yet. When Aaron Judge went through his slump last July and August, he still walked a ton. Gary’s not walking at all right now.

3. The batted ball data points to more than bad luck. That .034 BABIP is so hilariously low that there’s basically no chance it continues. The law of averages won’t allow it. Pitchers are collectively awful at hitting and they have a .217 BABIP so far this year. A .034 BABIP is baseball randomness at its worst. In years past we’d point out the low BABIP and say don’t worry, it’ll correct at some point. We’re smarter than that though. We can look deeper.

On one hand, Sanchez has hit some rockets for outs so far this year. He’s made seven outs on balls hit 100 mph or harder, second most behind Joey Gallo’s nine. The league average is a .524 BABIP on balls with a 100 mph exit velocity or greater. Sanchez has a .125 BABIP on those such batted balls. Baseball can be so stupid sometimes. Now, on the other hand, here is the early infield pop-up leaderboard:

  1. Albert Pujols: 6
  2. Gary Sanchez: 5
  3. Eddie Rosario: 5
  4. Several tied with 4

Five infield pop-ups doesn’t seem like much, but we’re talking about a 37 plate appearance sample. It’s a sample of 30 balls in play once you remove the six strikeouts and the one hit-by-pitch. One out of every six balls Sanchez has put in play has been an infield pop-up this year, and those pop-ups are BABIP killing easy outs. Last season Gary had one infield pop-up every 25 balls in play. Now he has five in the span of 30 plate appearances.

It’s no surprise then that, even with those seven outs on 100+ mph batted balls, Sanchez has a .229 expected wOBA this season. There is an element of plain ol’ bad luck to Gary’s slump. He has had an inordinate number of well-struck baseballs turn into outs. Overall though, Sanchez is not making quality contact. He’s popping up a lot of pitches and his 26.7% hard contact rate is far below last year’s rate (36.9%) and the league average (32.2%).

* * *

The question now is why. Why is Sanchez making not great contact and not walking? Is it mechanical? Is he playing hurt? Has the league figured him out? I’d be very surprised if it’s the last one. For what it’s worth, Gary chalks it up a timing issue. “I feel like I’m rushing a little and opening my body. I want to correct that and try to stay up the middle and make good swings,” he said to Kuty.

In his relatively brief big league career, every Sanchez slump has looked the same. He gets jumpy at the plate. It almost seems like Gary has made the decision to swing before the pitch is even thrown. That he hasn’t struck out more during this slump is a testament to his hand-eye coordination and overall hitting ability. Once he relaxes a bit and gets back to distinguishing between pitches he can hit and pitches he should let go by, he’ll get on track.

Sanchez has been really bad so far this year. There’s no way around it. Truly the worst hitter in MLB, and that’s not hyperbole. Worst by batting average, worst by on-base percentage, worst by wRC+. I don’t think Gary’s true talent level has changed though. I still think he’s an top tier hitter with the ability to hit for average and power. We haven’t seen that guy yet this year. The sooner Sanchez figures things out at the plate, the better off the Yankees will be, and they need him to figure it out soon.

Game 11: Ace vs. Ace

by Leave a Comment

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The Yankees are facing the Red Sox tonight for the first this season and of course it’s a Very Big Deal. Games between these two teams always get hyped up beyond belief. It is what it is. The Red Sox are hot (8-0 in their last eight games) and the Yankees are not (3-5 in their last eight games). Couldn’t think of a better series for the Yankees to turn things around after that yucky series with the Orioles.

Anyway, we’ve got a premium pitching matchup tonight. Luis Severino vs. Chris Sale, both of whom finished in the top three of the Cy Young voting last year. These two actually squared off twice last season, and the Yankees won both games. The Yankees went 3-1 in Severino starts against the Red Sox last year and also went 3-1 when facing Sale last year. Would be cool to see a repeat this year. Here are the starting lineups.

New York Yankees
1. 2B Neil Walker
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
4. DH Gary Sanchez
5. SS Didi Gregorius
6. 1B Tyler Austin
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. C Austin Romine
9. CF Shane Robinson

RHP Luis Severino

Boston Red Sox
1. RF Mookie Betts
2. LF Andrew Benintendi
3. 1B Hanley Ramirez
4. DH J.D. Martinez
5. 3B Rafael Devers
6. 2B Eduardo Nunez
7. CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
8. C Christian Vazquez
9. SS Brock Holt

LHP Chris Sale

The players are in for another cold game tonight. The temperatures will be in the low-30s all night and it’s pretty windy as well. At least the rain stopped. It rained in Boston for much of the afternoon. Miserable baseball weather. So it goes. Tonight’s series opener will begin a little after 7pm ET, and you’ll be able to watch on YES locally and ESPN nationally. Enjoy the ballgame.

Roster Move: Robinson has been added to the roster, obviously. He’s in the lineup. Jace Peterson was designated for assignment to clear 25-man and 40-man roster space. The Yankees want the right-handed hitting natural outfielder on the roster against Sale and David Price these next two days instead of the left-handed hitting infielder-turned-outfielder. I’m guessing Peterson will clear waivers and accept the minor league assignment, and stay in the organization as a non-40-man roster player.

Injury Update: CC Sabathia (hip) played catch today and said he’s been pain-free for a few days now. The next step is a bullpen session … Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique, hip) received a cortisone injection in the hip and the hope is he’ll be able to resume baseball activities Friday … Brandon Drury (migraines) went for a battery of tests yesterday and the Yankees are waiting for the results … Gary Sanchez (calf) is fine and could’ve caught today, but Aaron Boone decided to give him one more day away from catching as a precaution.

Rotation Update: As expected, Sonny Gray will start Thursday’s series finale. He’ll be on normal rest thanks to yesterday’s off-day. That is Sabathia’s spot. The Yankees waited until this afternoon to officially announce Gray as Thursday’s starter for whatever reason.

Game 10: End of the First Homestand

by Leave a Comment

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The first homestand of the 2018 season comes to an end today, and this afternoon’s series finale with the Orioles will determine whether it’s a good 4-2 homestand or a meh 3-3 homestand. The Yankees bounced back nicely yesterday after that tough 14-inning loss Friday night. Get a win today and go into tomorrow’s off-day feeling good about things. Sounds good to me.

Jordan Montgomery is making his second start of the season today and, like Sony Gray yesterday, it sure would be swell if he pitched deep into the game. The bullpen is still a little short thanks to Friday’s marathon. Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances are presumably available, and, uh, Domingo German? Not great, but that’s baseball. Here are the starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. DH Aaron Judge
3. RF Giancarlo Stanton
4. 2B Neil Walker
5. 1B Tyler Austin
6. 3B Miguel Andujar
7. LF Jace Peterson
8. C Austin Romine
9. SS Ronald Torreyes

LHP Jordan Montgomery

Baltimore Orioles
1. 1B Trey Mancini
2. SS Manny Machado
3. 2B Jonathan Schoop
4. CF Adam Jones
5. DH Danny Valencia
6. 3B Tim Beckham
7. RF Anthony Santander
8. LF Craig Gentry
9. C Caleb Joseph

RHP Mike Wright Jr.

Another chilly day in the Bronx, but at least the sky is clear and the sun is out. Hopefully the weather warms up soon. Getting pretty sick of the cold. Anyway, today’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy the game.

Injury Updates: Didi Gregorius is fine and available to pinch-hit. They’re just taking advantage of tomorrow’s off-day to give Didi two straight days to rest after the 14-inning game, which included Mychal Givens sitting on Gregorius at home plate … Gary Sanchez (calf) is doing better and is available to pinch-hit, if necessary. With the off-day tomorrow, they’re giving Sanchez three straight days away from catching just to make sure the calf is okay … Tyler Wade (illness) is feeling much better and is available off the bench … Aaron Hicks (intercostal) ran the bases today and will go to Triple-A Scranton to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow. Sounds like the earliest he will return is Wednesday … Clint Frazier (concussion) is getting at-bats in simulated games but has not yet been cleared for official games … Greg Bird (ankle) gets his stitches out tomorrow and will begin rehab work. He’s still looking at a mid-to-late May return … Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique, hip) will see another hip specialist soon.

Sanchez’s Slow Start

by Leave a Comment

Gary. (Presswire)

Sure things are never less sure than they are in baseball. Coming into 2018, the Yankees’ offense and bullpen were supposed to carry them and the rotation was supposed to be, at the least, a question mark. Thus far, the bullpen has had some high-profile hiccups and the rotation has been damn good. The offense–while mostly fine–hasn’t quite broken out the way we expected. Part of the reason for that is Gary Sanchez’s slow start at the plate.

Sanchez will start today with a line of .063/.091/.188. His wOBA is .124, good for a comically low wRC+ of -34. With all the “it’s super early” caveats applying, that is one ugly line. If we’re looking for a silver lining, both of his two hits are for extra bases–one homer and one double. A quick glance at things hints that two things may be at play here: discipline and contact–or a lack of both.

Here’s a thing I didn’t realize until I started looking at Sanchez’s numbers while writing this: he hasn’t walked this year. Not so fun fact! He wasn’t exactly Barry Bonds last year, drawing 40 walks, but his 7.6% BB rate was at least within shouting distance of the league average 8.5%. The only reason his OBP is higher than his BA is because he was hit by one pitch and he hasn’t hit a sac fly yet. What’s behind this? Our first thought might be that he’s swinging at too many pitches out of the zone, but that’s not necessarily the case. His O-Swing% is 37.2, up just under a percentage point from last year. That’s not a huge gap. Additionally, his Z-Swing% has stayed steady at 63.2, identical to last year’s. This needs another caveat since it’s early, but his strikeout rate is down, too, to 15.2%, which is good! But, with two strikes, Gary is doing chasing on pitches that are definitely hard to hit, doing himself no favors. The biggest issue from this area, though, is that he’s making contact on too many bad pitches.

While he’s not necessarily swinging at an inordinate amount of pitches out of the zone, he’s making way too much contact on those pitches: 78.6%, up from 60.9% in 2017. Where does that show up? In his general contact profile. Look at that IFFB%: 28.6%! That certainly matches the eye test, which tells me he’s hit a few too many pop ups this year. Grounders are slightly up, as are fly balls, but line drives are way down. He’s too good a hitter for his LD% to stay at 3.7 (!) all year or even much longer, but it helps explain things. Overall, his soft contact percentage is up too high, his hard contact percentage is down too low, so he’s not hitting the ball with any authority.

This isn’t going to last because it just isn’t. Some of the numbers are just sample size noise and Sanchez is too good of a hitter. But it’s still a part of why the Yankees’ offense hasn’t seemed to get rolling like it should. With Greg Bird and Aaron Hicks out, this has definitely looked more pronounced, and may continue to with Brandon Drury hitting the DL. Hopefully Sanchez can begin to break out of it to help mitigate those absences.

Game Nine: The Day After

by Leave a Comment

(Adam Hunger/Getty)

Rough game last night. The outcome stunk, and to make matters worse, the Yankees lost a few more players to injury. CC Sabathia (hip) and Brandon Drury (migraines) are now on the disabled list and Tyler Wade is sick, so he’s not 100% either. In case you missed it earlier, the Yankees had to make a series of roster moves this morning.

The good news is the Yankees have another game this afternoon and they’ll get to face Chris Tillman, who’s been throwing batting practice since Opening Day last year. Tillman has allowed 90 runs and 191 baserunners in 97 innings since the start of last season (7.89 ERA, 7.03 FIP, 1.93 WHIP). That doesn’t guarantee success today, of course, but I’d rather see the Yankees face Tillman this afternoon than literally any other starter in baseball. Here are the lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. DH Giancarlo Stanton
4. SS Didi Gregorius
5. 1B Tyler Austin
6. 3B Miguel Andujar
7. LF Jace Peterson
8. C Austin Romine
9. 2B Ronald Torreyes

RHP Sonny Gray

Baltimore Orioles
1. LF Trey Mancini
2. SS Manny Machado
3. 2B Jonathan Schoop
4. CF Adam Jones
5. 1B Chris Davis
6. 3B Tim Beckham
7. DH Pedro Alvarez
8. RF Anthony Santander
9. C Chance Sisco

RHP Chris Tillman

Cold, cloudy, and windy in New York today, but there is no rain in the forecast. Remember spring? That was a cool time of year. I’ll tell my grandkids about it. Now we go straight from the frigid cold of winter to the gross heat and humidity of summer. Anyway, today’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET. You can watch on YES locally and MLB Network out of market. Enjoy the game.

Injury Update: Gary Sanchez (calf) is doing better. It was just a cramp last night. He wasn’t going to catch the day game after a 14-inning night game anyway. The Yankees have an off-day Monday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him DH (or sit all together) tomorrow to give him three days away from catching to knock this calf thing out … Drury is going to have “extensive tests” Monday. Apparently he’s had migraines and blurred vision on and off for years … Sabathia played catch today. The DL stint is precautionary more than anything … Ben Heller is having surgery to remove the bone spurs from his elbow today, according to his Instagram feed.