Greg Bird Archives - Page 3 of 34

The Last Bench Spot

February 10, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

This coming Wednesday, Feb. 13, the Yankees’ season unofficially kicks off with pitchers and catchers reporting. For a brief time, it’s tremendously exciting, then barely anything happens until Grapefruit League games start, but given a long winter without baseball, we’ll gladly take it. And barring any surprises, the Yankees’ roster is about done, with, as Mike noted here, there are three spots open: two in the bullpen and one on the bench. I agree with him that Tommy Kahnle and Luis Cessa–both out of options–will get those two bullpen spots for convenience’s sake. That bench spot–the last spot–is the one up for discussion. Let’s take a look at some options.

There isn’t necessarily an obvious candidate for this spot, given the way the Yankees already shake out. Their DH–Giancarlo Stanton–is a generally capable outfielder, so playing with him as the de facto fourth outfielder is certainly possible. Additionally, with DJ LeMahieu (apparently) and Gleyber Torres both capable of playing multiple infield positions, and the presence of Troy Tulowitzki, there isn’t a glaring need for an infielder, either. I think, however, we can eliminate two players from consideration almost immediately: Clint Frazier and Greg Bird.

This dual elimination may seem ironic, given that they’re better players than the group of NRIs, but both would be wasted in a bench role. Both need to prove health, first of all, and both need to prepare to possibly take over a starting role deeper into the season. Frazier, in his own estimation, is poised to take the starting left field job from Brett Gardner and if all goes right this year, that’s what should happen. Bird, meanwhile, needs to prove he’s worthy of getting his job back after injuries and poor performance gave the first base position to Luke Voit, who took that bull by the horns. For both Frazier and Bird, everyday reps are more useful than playing irregularly from the bench.

Others we can eliminate for developmental reasons are Estevan Florial, Kyle Holder, and Trey Amburgey. The former is the team’s top prospect and there’s obviously no way they’ll rush him. Holder, though ready defensively, needs some offensive work in a relatively consequence free environment. Amburgey hasn’t played above AA. Despite a good year at AAA last year–15 homers–I don’t see Mike Ford getting an MLB call up, as he only plays first base.

That leaves NRIs Billy Burns, Gio Urshela, and Matt Lipka as the remaining options, as well as 40-man player Tyler Wade, whose presence has been mostly overlooked this whole offseason. Of those four, Tyler Wade makes the most sense.

Urshela has the most recent Major League experience of the other three, but can only play third. Burns hasn’t played in the Majors since 2017 and Lipka never has. There isn’t much from either player that suggests they deserve a shot in the bigs, even as bench players. Moreover, all three of those players would require a roster move; are you gonna cut someone for the sake of Gio Urshela, Billy Burns, or Matt Lipka? Absolutely not.

Tyler Wade has mostly disappointed at the plate in his Major League time. However, there’s still some room to grow. His defense plays well in the infield and the Yankees have experimented with him in the outfield. He may not be the most position flexible player in the world, but he’s more flexible than the other options the Yankees have and he wouldn’t require a roster move. This may be his last, but Wade should get a shot at the last spot.

Steamer Projections and the 2019 Yankee Infield

January 27, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

More of this in 2019, please. (New York Times)

It’s hard to believe that we’re nearly there–kind of. Spring Training is mere weeks away despite how long and gruelingly slow this offseason has felt. Pitchers and catchers reporting, the beginnings of real workouts, intrasquad games, and even Grapefruit League games can feel anticlimactic once those moments hit, but at this point, we’re starved for any baseball action and those’ll certainly do. With this time of year also come projections. Right now at FanGraphs, Steamer projections for the 2019 season are live. Let’s take a look at how the Yankees’ infielders stack up against the rest of the league. Standard caveat applies: projections are not predictions.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez had a bad year in 2018, especially considering his talent level. There were signs of underperfomance that could be corrected, though, and he was injured for a good portion of the year. A bounceback is certainly in order, and Steamer sees one. It projects him for a .245/.322/.480 line, good for a .342 wOBA and 115 wRC+. In terms of counting stats, it sees him with 27 homers in 483 PA. At first glance, that slash line seems a bit low considering his talent level, but when we consider last year, his injuries, etc., it makes a bit of sense. More encouragingly, that is the best projection for any AL catcher. Steamer has Gary leading AL catchers in just about everything: HR, RBI, SLG, wOBA, wRC+, and fWAR.

First Base

The two most insecure spots in the Yankee lineup are the neighbors, first base and second base. That isn’t to say there isn’t upside or talent there, but they’re big question marks. At first base, the question is likely “Who’s going to play there?” The two main candidates are Luke Voit and Greg Bird. In Steamer’s eyes, Voit will get more playing time there with 389 plate appearances and Bird garnering 190. The system projects both to be above average–a 115 and 103 wRC+ respectively–with a combined 24 homers and a total of 1.4 fWAR: 1.2 from Voit and 0.2 from Bird.

Second Base

The second base question is one Mike took a stab at earlier in the week in examining the Yankees’ newest acquisition, D.J. Lemaiheu. Steamer says a .269/.333/.388 line, good for a 97 wRC+. That’s…fine? It’s probably lower than what the Yankees expect, given the contract they gave him and some of the underlying data. If that’s what he ends up with, I’d be okay with it–can’t quibble with that average and OBP, really, especially if his defensive contributions continue to be stellar.

Steamer also categorizes Gleyber Torres as a second baseman and projects him at .257/.328/.439: a .330 wOBA and 107 wRC+. That seems underwhelming, but remember our caveat: it’s not a prediction, but more a baseline from which he can go up or down. It’s also worth noting that, like Sanchez, Steamer projects Torres to lead AL 2B in both wOBA (tied with Jonathan Schoop) and wRC+.

Shortstop

The most surprising thing about the shortstop projections is that they see Troy Tulowitzki getting 302 PA. And they’re relatively productive–a .318 wOBA and 99 wRC+. If you told me that Tulo would get that many PA, I’d assume he was really ripping the cover off the ball in addition to being healthy. But with a bit more thought, 302 PA of league average production out of him would be more than welcome.

Steamer also takes a stab at Didi’s shortened season and sees him with 54 games and 221 PA of 104 wRC+ hitting. Between him and Tulo, that’s 532 PA of slightly above league average hitting from the shortstop position. Given the tenuousness of the situation–a reclamation project and an injured star as the options–that’s pretty encouraging.

Third Base

For whatever reason, Steamer sees Miguel Andujar as only racking up 545 PA this year, but they’re a productive 545 PA: .341 wOBA, 115 wRC+, 23 homers, and 28 walks (only 25 last year). That’s a really good jumping off point, especially for a second year player. It doesn’t look as great compared to other third basemen, considering Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, and Matt Chapman all play there, but all-in-all, I’d take that from Andujar every time. His defensive projection (-9) is the worst among everyone who’ll actually play third (Nick Castellanos won’t see much hot corner action anymore) and that limits his fWAR projection to just 2.0.

Overall

While this is a far cry from the 2009 infield, it’s still good enough. A bounceback from Sanchez will go a long way towards making it look good, as will progression/maintenance from Torres and Adujar. I’d be lying if I said I weren’t concerned about the right side and shortstop, though, and hopefully the Yankees can patch things together there. The outfield (and DH)–which we’ll examine at another time–should help carry the softer spots in the infield, though, and overall, I’m not worried about how this team will hit.

Sorting out the projected 2019 Triple-A Scranton roster

January 24, 2019 by Mike

In the current age of baseball a 25-man roster is not enough. Teams have an active 25-man roster each night, yes, but there are also a handful of players in Triple-A who shuttle back and forth as needed. New middle relievers are brought in almost daily and teams even swap out bench players for matchup purposes going into a series. There’s the 25-man roster and a Triple-A taxi squad.

Last season 49 different players appeared in a game for the Yankees, and that doesn’t include Ryan Bollinger and Domingo Acevedo, who were called up for a day (twice, in Bollinger’s case) but did not appear in a game. A total of 1,379 players appeared in an MLB game last season, or 46 per team on average. The Blue Jays led the way with 63 different players, three more than any other team. The Rockies and Astros used only 41 players apiece, somehow.

The Yankees no longer have a top notch farm system but they do have a good farm system. So much of their talent is in the lower minors though, and thus is not a realistic option to be called up this year. The Triple-A taxi squad will likely feature many players we’ve seen already, either guys who were up last year in a similar capacity, or filled a similar role with another team. Some young minor leaguers, some veteran journeymen.

Because the Triple-A roster is now an extension of the MLB roster, I think it’s important to look at the projected Triple-A roster to figure out who fits where, and who could be a call-up option. On paper, the big league roster is fairly set. The Yankees don’t have many open spots or undecided roles, which makes this exercise a little easier. There’s not as much guesswork as usual. Let’s start with position players. Here are the Triple-A roster candidates. An asterisk (*) denotes a player on the 40-man roster.

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Utility
Francisco Diaz	Mandy Alvarez	Trey Amburgey	Devyn Bolasky
Kyle Higashioka*	Greg Bird*	Billy Burns	Billy Fleming
Ryan Lavarnway	Thairo Estrada*	Clint Frazier*	L.J. Mazzilli
	Mike Ford	Jeff Hendrix	Ryan McBroom
	Kyle Holder	Matt Lipka
	Gosuke Katoh	Zack Zehner
	Gio Urshela
	Luke Voit*
	Tyler Wade*

At the moment the Yankees have one bench spot unaccounted for at the big league level. That’s it. Assuming another three-man bench/eight-man bullpen, the other eleven position player spots have been accounted for already. Injuries could change things, of course, and they will, but right now all but one of the 12 position player spots are filled. That makes life easy here. Let’s go through the Triple-A position players.

Catcher: Always the easiest position. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are locked into big league roster spots, leaving Higashioka (the up-and-down third catcher) and Lavarnway (has MLB time) for Triple-A Scranton. Diaz figures to bounce between Double-A and Triple-A as needed, which he’s done the last few seasons. Higashioka and Lavarnway will be Scranton’s catchers.

Infielders: Earlier this month Brian Cashman said Voit will be the big league starting first baseman “unless Bird beats him out,” and right now my guess is Bird will not beat him out in Spring Training. Voit was the starter to finish last season and I’ll bet on him being the starter to begin this season. We can remove Voit from Triple-A consideration.

That said, I think the chances of Bird getting the final big league bench spot are annoyingly high. He seems immune to being sent down. Even last August, after Voit took the first base job, the Yankees kept Bird on the bench rather than send him down for at-bats. I don’t get it. If he loses the first base job, he should be sent down, but I just can’t shake the feeling he’s going to be the final bench guy.

Because of that I’m going to assume Bird is in the big leagues, meaning Wade and Estrada are definitely in Triple-A, as is Ford. Urshela has big league time and was the RailRiders’ best hitter late last season, so he’ll of course be in Triple-A as well. That’s the starting infield right there. Urshela, Estrada, Wade, and Ford around the horn. Holder’s going to play everyday in Double-A, not sit on the Triple-A bench. That leaves Alvarez and Katoh for possible bench roles. We’ll get to them in a bit.

Outfielders: Bird getting the final MLB bench spot means Frazier goes to Triple-A, which is fine with me. He missed the end of last season with post-concussion symptoms and getting him regular at-bats in the minors wouldn’t be the worst thing. I expect Frazier to be at least platooning with Brett Gardner in left field by the end of the season, if not playing the position on an everyday basis. For now, he’s Scranton bound.

Burns has big league time and is ticketed for Triple-A. Lipka getting an invite to Spring Training leads me to believe the Yankees are not planning to send him down to Double-A, where he played most of last year. If Lipka is ticketed for Triple-A, it leaves Amburgey, Hendrix, and Zehner for the fourth outfielder’s spot. Zehner has spent the last year and a half in Triple-A and Hendrix has spent the last year and a half in Double-A. Hmmm.

Amburgey had a good but not great year in Double-A last season and, if Lipka is going to Triple-A, I think Amburgey goes back to Double-A to play every day. If the Yankees are willing to send Lipka to Double-A, then Amburgey would go to Triple-A. My hunch is Lipka to Triple-A, Zehner as Scranton’s fourth outfielder, and Amburgey and Hendrix to Double-A. Once the inevitable injury or call-up strikes, Amburgey or Hendrix gets moved up.

Utility: We have two catchers (Higashioka, Lavarnway), four infielders (Estrada, Ford, Urshela, Wade), and four outfielders (Burns, Frazier, Lipka, Zehner). That leaves two open position player spots and, honestly, these are easy calls. It should be Mazzilli and McBroom. They have the most Triple-A time among the remaining players and they’d allow Alvarez and Katoh to play everyday in Double-A. Bolasky and Fleming are organizational utility guys who’ve been bouncing from level-to-level the last few years. No reason to think they won’t do it again.

The Triple-A position player side of things was pretty easy this year because the Yankees have all but one of their big league position player spots filled. Last year we were trying to figure out what to do with Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. That’s not the case now. Anyway, for the heck of it, here’s a potential RailRiders’ lineup based on everything we just talked out:

1. 2B/SS/3B Tyler Wade
2. 2B/SS/3B Thairo Estrada
3. OF Clint Frazier
4. 1B/DH Mike Ford
5. 1B/DH Ryan McBroom
6. 3B/SS Gio Urshela
7. C Kyle Higashioka
8. OF Billy Burns
9. OF Matt Lipka

Bench: C Lavarnway, IF Mazzilli, OF Zehner

The RailRiders had some absurdly strong lineups last year before injuries and the trade deadline thinned out the roster. The projected 2019 lineup I have above is quite strong for Triple-A. Devoid of prospects (Estrada is the only actual prospect in that lineup now that Wade and Frazier have graduated to MLB) but still strong. The RailRiders will score some runs this coming season. Now let’s get to the pitching staff.

Starters	Righty Relievers	Lefty Relievers
Domingo Acevedo*	Cale Coshow	Rex Brothers
Chance Adams*	Raynel Espinal	Danny Coulombe
Luis Cessa*	J.P. Feyereisen	Phil Diehl
Nestor Cortes	Joe Harvey*	Stephen Tarpley*
Domingo German*	Ben Heller*
Drew Hutchison	Tommy Kahnle*
Brian Keller	Brady Lail
Mike King
Jonathan Loaisiga*

The Sonny Gray trade means the Yankees now have two open big league bullpen spots. By no means do I think this is set in stone, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Cessa and Kahnle have a leg up on those two bullpen spots because they are out of minor league options and can’t be sent to Triple-A without passing through waivers. I don’t think either would clear. If A.J. Cole got claimed earlier this month, Cessa and Kahnle would get claimed.

Because of that, I’m going to assume Cessa and Kahnle are getting the final two big league bullpen spots for the purposes of this exercise. I’m also assuming Heller won’t be ready to pitch Opening Day. He had his Tommy John surgery on April 7th last year and is likely looking at a May or June return. We can remove him from consideration for the RailRiders’ pitching staff. There are 20 names in the table. Removing Cessa, Kahnle, and Heller leaves up 17 candidates for the 13-man Triple-A pitching staff.

Starters: Is it me or does this seem completely obvious? Adams, German, Hutchison, King, and Loaisiga should be the Triple-A Scranton starters to begin the season. Keller is a fringe prospect who was just okay with Double-A Trenton last year. Sending him back there is no big deal. Cortes has done the Triple-A swingman thing plenty already and I think he’s headed for that role again.

That leaves Acevedo, who has a strong case to begin the season in Triple-A after throwing 144 very good (2.63 ERA and 3.06 FIP) innings with Double-A Trenton the last two years. There is a numbers crunch here though. Adams, German, King, and Loaisiga are legitimate prospects (German’s exhausted his rookie eligibility but you know what I mean) who need to work on things in Triple-A and also stay ready for a possible call-up. Hutchison didn’t sign with the Yankees to be a Triple-A long man.

Because of that, I think Acevedo is ticketed for a return to Double-A to begin the season, which is not the end of the world. Someone will get hurt or traded or called up before April ends, at which point Acevedo can come up and assume the rotation spot. Besides, after missing so much time last year, I kinda want to see Acevedo miss bats in Double-A again (20.2% strikeouts last year) before moving him up. Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga is the tentative Triple-A rotation in whatever order, and I feel pretty good about that.

Relievers: Cortes is likely to again serve as the heavily used swingman — part of me wonders whether the Yankees would use a six-man rotation in Scranton to begin the season (probably not) — and the rest of the bullpen falls into place behind him. Espinal and Harvey were a dynamite setup man/closer combination for the RailRiders last year and they’ll do it again this year. Tarpley will join them as a late-inning option.

Brothers and Coulombe have big league time and are on minor league contracts, so they’re going to Triple-A, not Double-A. Coshow and Feyereisen spent most of last year in Triple-A as well and it’s safe to expect them to return to Scranton to begin the season. That’s eight relievers right there. Here’s our final product pitching staff:

Starters: Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga
Relievers: Brothers, Cortes, Coshow, Coulombe, Espinal, Feyereisen, Harvey, Tarpley

That assumes Kahnle and Cessa are in the big leagues and Heller will still be rehabbing come Opening Day. Acevedo, Keller, and Diehl go to Double-A. Diehl threw only 26.2 innings at Double-A last year, so going back there to begin this season is no big deal. Lail draws the short straw and is the odd man out, but he bounced back and forth between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and doing it again wouldn’t surprise me. He’s been passed by several others in the organization, like Harvey and Tarpley.

I should note it is not uncommon for a Triple-A team to carry nine relievers and two bench players at various points throughout the season, especially in April, when young starters are still getting stretched all the way out. Lail’s the obvious candidate to be the ninth reliever and I imagine McBroom would get dropped from the position player group to open a spot. Zehner has more Triple-A time and Mazzilli can play anywhere. McBroom rode the Double-A/Triple-A shuttle last year and he’d do it again this year.

Update: I completely forgot about the recently signed Danny Farquhar. He’s obviously going to Triple-A. I think that would mean Coshow gets pushed down to Double-A since he struggled with the RailRiders last year. My bad.

Wade (infield), Frazier (outfield), and Higashioka (catcher) are poised to be the regular up-and-down position players this season. Estrada lost essentially an entire season to injury last year and figures to stay in Triple-A to make up for that lost time. Pitching staff call-ups are a little more up in the air because they depend as much on who’s available (so and so started yesterday, etc.) as they do who the Yankees want to call up. Because the MLB roster is fairly set right now, piecing together the Triple-A team is fairly straightforward. At least until injuries and call-ups throw a wrench into things.

2019 Salary Arbitration Filing Day Updates

January 11, 2019 by Mike

Today is an important date on the offseason calendar. Today is the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to file salary figures with the league. The player files what he believes he should be paid in 2019. The team files what they believe the player should be paid in 2019. Pretty straightforward, right? There is a lot of money on the line today around the league.

Most arbitration-eligible players will agree to 2019 contracts today. Only a handful will actually file salary figures. The two sides can still work out a contract of any size even after filing salary figures, but most teams employ a “file and trial” approach, meaning once they file numbers, they cut off contract talks and go to an arbitration hearing. That’s designed to put pressure on the player to sign.

If the two sides do go to a hearing, they will each defend their filing number and state their case to the three-person panel. It can get ugly. Jeff Passan says the Red Sox played a Kris Bryant highlight video during their hearing with Mookie Betts last year to show the panel Betts is not as good as Bryant, and didn’t deserve a similar salary. Ouch. (It didn’t work. Betts won.) The panel will ultimately pick either the salary the player filed or the salary the team filed. Nothing in between.

The Yankees have a massive arbitration class this season. Not only do they have nine arbitration-eligible players, those nine players combine for over $50M in projected salary in 2019. Last year’s nine-player arbitration class ran only $29.2525M in actual salary. This year’s arbitration class could come close to doubling that. Arbitration-eligible players could chew up more than a quarter of the $206M luxury tax threshold.

Unless something unexpected happens, like a long-term extension, we’re going to keep track of all the day’s Yankees-related arbitration news right here in this one post. The Didi Gregorius situation is the important one to watch. Here are this year’s arbitration-eligible Yankees and their projected salaries, via MLBTR:

	Service Time (years.days)	MLBTR Projection	Actual 2019 Salary
Didi Gregorius	5.159	$12.4M	$11.75M
Dellin Betances	5.078	$6.4M	$7.25M
Sonny Gray	5.061	$9.1M	$7.5M
Austin Romine	5.045	$2M	$1.8M
Aaron Hicks	5.041	$6.2M	$6M
James Paxton	4.151	$9M	$8.575M
Tommy Kahnle	3.131	$1.5M	$1.3875
Greg Bird	3.053	$1.5M	$1.2M
Luis Severino	2.170	$5.1M	Filed
Total		$53.2M	$45.4625M

As a reminder, players with 0-3 years of service time are pre-arbitration-eligible and teams can pay them pretty much whatever they want. Players with 3-6 years of service time are arbitration-eligible. (Severino is a Super Two and will be arbitration four times instead of the usual three. Here’s a Super Two primer.) Players with more than six years of service time are eligible for free agency.

The Yankees have been to one arbitration hearing in the last ten years (Betances in 2017), and, for the most part, they get their players signed before the filing deadline. They have had a few negotiations continue beyond the filing deadline, most notably Aroldis Chapman in 2016. Generally speaking though, the Yankees get their guys signed before the salary filing deadline. They’ll be busy today given their sizeable arbitration class.

It’s worth noting one-year contracts for arbitration-eligible players are not guaranteed. These players can be released in Spring Training and owed only 30 days or 45 days termination pay, depending on the exact date of the release. Chances are none of them will get released in camp. It doesn’t happen often. Kahnle seems most at risk of a Spring Training release should he show up to Tampa with his velocity still missing.

Anyway, the salary figure filing deadline is 1pm ET but news is going to trickle in through the day. The Yankees tend to announce everything all at once at the end of the business day, so official confirmation is still a few hours away. Here’s the latest contract news for arbitration-eligible Yankees. Check back throughout the day for updates.

12:00pm ET: According to Bob Nightengale, the Yankees and Bird have agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.2M. Bird has played in only 130 of 486 possible games the last three seasons, though he was accruing service time while on the Major League disabled list, so he’s arbitration-eligible.

12:00pm ET: Romine and the Yankees have agreed to a $1.8M salary for 2019, reports Nightengale. Thus far both signings come in a tick below the MLBTR projection. Probably just a coincidence, but, given the state of free agency, I can’t help but wonder if teams are putting the squeeze are arbitration-eligible players too.

12:57pm ET: Hicks gets a $6M salary for the coming season, according to Nightengale. Another below projection number. Hmmm. The big question now: Will the Yankees and Hicks discuss a long-term extension at some point, or is this it until he becomes a free agent after the season?

4:12pm ET: Jeff Passan reports the Yankees and Luis Severino did not agree to a contract before the 1pm ET deadline. They’re expected to go to an arbitration hearing. No word on their salary filing figures yet. Those will come out eventually.

5:25pm ET: The Yankees and Betances agreed to a one-year deal at $7.25M, reports Sweeny Murti. That is well-above the MLBTR projection. Good for Dellin. Of course, the Yanks beat him in arbitration a few years ago, so his salary is lower than what it could’ve been.

5:52pm ET: The Yankees have agreed to one-year contracts with all their arbitration-eligible players except Severino, the team announced. We’re still waiting on Severino’s filing numbers as well as salary numbers for Gregorius, Paxton, Gray, and Kahnle.

9:55pm ET: Ron Blum says Gregorius received $11.75M, Paxton received $8.575M, and Gray received $7.5M. So much for the Yankees getting Gregorius at a discount while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Also, Severino filed for $5.25M while the Yankees countered with $4.4M. Arbitration hearings will take place in February. Still no word on Kahnle’s salary.

Saturday, 10:12am ET: Blum’s story has been updated to include Kahnle’s salary. He gets $1,387,500. Seven of the eight arbitration-eligible Yankees who signed yesterday signed below their MLBTR projection, with Betances the lone exception. Those eight players combine for $45.4625M in salary, so, even if Severino wins his hearing, this year’s class comes in at roughly $2.5M below the projection.

For better or worse, the Yankees seem to believe they’re set at first base going into 2019

December 28, 2018 by Mike

All offseason long the focus for the Yankees has been pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Starters, primarily, but also bullpen help as well. And they need a Didi Gregorius replacement too. Almost everything we’ve seen and heard this winter has revolved around pitching and a middle infielder to replace Gregorius. That’s pretty much it.

Despite positional uncertainty, we’ve heard basically nothing about the Yankees looking for first base help this winter. Nothing other than Brian Cashman essentially shooting down speculation the Yankees could sign Bryce Harper to play first base. That has been the extent of the team’s first base rumors this offseason. Cashman saying Harper is a non-option at the position.

At the moment the Yankees are slated to go into next season with Luke Voit at first base and Greg Bird trying to reclaim the position. Cashman and Aaron Boone both kinda sorta indicated Voit will be the starter next year during their end-of-season press conferences, but stopped short of calling him the starter outright.

“(Voit) certainly came over here and was given that opportunity and took it and kicked the door in,” said Boone. “I’m sure there will continue to be competition on all kinds of levels. The one thing with Greg that I never lost is we’ve seen him be an impact player at times in his career … This year, in a lot of ways, was a little bit of a lost season for him.”

At the very least, Voit’s late season performance has earned him a long look in Spring Training. I am forever skeptical when it comes to 27-year-old rookies, especially when they’re right-handed hitting first basemen, but the Yankees owe it to themselves to find out whether Voit is a late bloomer a la Nelson Cruz and Jesus Aguilar, you know?

As for Bird, who knows? He’s now into his arbitration years and the idea that he’ll be a left-handed hitting complement to the right-handed Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez is fading with each injury. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him wrestle the first base job way from Voit at some point next year. We’ve seen Bird do some great things. Not often enough, but we’ve seen flashes.

Given the lack of rumors to date, the Yankees seem to believe they’re set at first base with Voit and Bird. Mike Ford and Ryan McBroom are the Triple-A first base depth and both were just passed over in the Rule 5 Draft, so the rest of MLB doesn’t view them highly. Voit and Bird it is. Three things about this.

1. There’s only room on the roster for one of these guys. A Voit/Bird platoon isn’t going to happen. I mean, it might, but probably not. The Yankees have fully embraced the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench lifestyle and using two of those three bench spots on a backup catcher and a first base only guy doesn’t make much sense, especially since the other first baseman is another first base only guy. It really limits roster flexibility.

2. Adding a first baseman at the deadline should be easy. There are always more first base types than roster spots. Last offseason we saw Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, and others wait until Spring Training started to sign. I’m sure others are facing the same fate this offseason. Here’s a quick list of potential first base trade deadline targets on rebuilding teams:

Blue Jays: Justin Smoak
Orioles: Mark Trumbo
White Sox: Jose Abreu and Yonder Alonso

The Brewers aren’t rebuilding but we should include Eric Thames in here seeing how he’s stuck behind Aguilar and also Ryan Braun, who’s started playing first base. Thames as well as everyone listed above would be a rental pickup. No contract obligations beyond 2019. If necessary, the Yankees shouldn’t have much trouble finding a first baseman at the deadline, at least in theory.

3. The Yankees have offense to spare. Even with the relatively unproven Voit at first base and Tyler Wade penciled in as Sir Didi’s replacement, FanGraphs projects the 2019 Yankees as the second highest scoring team in baseball. The run prevention is expected to improve next year with J.A. Happ and James Paxton replacing Sonny Gray and the fifth starter parade, so, in theory, the Yankees can roll the dice at first base.

I don’t love this line of thinking, but the Yankees are in position to try Voit and Bird at first base, and see what happens. Maybe Voit is actually the next Cruz or Aguilar. Or maybe Bird manages to stay healthy and hit. If it happens, great. If not, well, the Yankees have enough offense to get by, and there should be plenty of first base options available in July. Point is, the Yankees can afford to be patient.

* * *

This current free agent class is really thin on first base help and that probably helped convince the Yankees to commit to Voit and Bird. The best free agent first baseman on the market this winter was probably Steve Pearce. Had Abreu or Paul Goldschmidt or Matt Carpenter or someone like that been a free agent this offseason, I imagine we would’ve heard much more about the Yankees looking for an upgrade at first base.

Instead, the free agent market is mostly barren, and Voit hit well enough (more than well enough, really) this past season to buy himself another look next year. The Yankees were in this same spot with Bird a few years ago, right? He performed well late in 2015 and it was enough to convince the Yankees they didn’t need to import first base and DH depth behind Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Bird was the guy. That didn’t work out, unfortunately.

First base has been a black hole in the Bronx since 2015. From 2016-18, the Yankees received a .230/.306/.426 (95 wRC+) line from their first basemen. Among the 30 teams that ranks 28th/26th/25th (26th). First base has been a real problem since Teixeira’s (and Bird’s) last good season in 2015. And yet, the Yankees seem content to go into next season with Voit and Bird at the position. There have been very few first base rumors this winter.

Sitting out the first base market this offseason could very well — and very quickly — prove to be a mistake. I would stop short of calling it a potential colossal mistake because there is always first base help available, but the Yankees are taking a bit of a risk here. They’re using their resources (payroll space, trade chips, etc.) to address other needs and winging it at first base. There’s still plenty of time to make a move, but right now, Voit and Bird are the answer.

Taking stock of the 2019 Yankees with two months to go until Spring Training

December 17, 2018 by Mike

Where does Bird fit in? (Omar Rawlings/Getty)

At the moment the Yankees are a little more than halfway through their offseason. It has been 68 days since their ALDS Game Four loss and there are 58 days to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Hooray for being closer to Spring Training than the ALDS. Baseball is approaching.

The Yankees have been fairly busy this offseason, most notably adding James Paxton and re-signing several players (Brett Gardner, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia). They also added some depth pieces through waiver claims and minor trades. Still on the offseason to-do list is find a Didi Gregorius replacement and also bolster the bullpen. That’s the short version. There are still other needs as well.

With the Winter Meetings over and the Yankees slightly more than halfway through their offseason, I figured this was as good a time as any to take a step back and examine the current state of the roster. The projected 25-man Opening Day roster, that is. Here’s what we know right now:

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Luke Voit	LF Brett Gardner	J.A. Happ	Dellin Betances
	2B G. Torres/OPEN	CF Aaron Hicks	James Paxton	Aroldis Chapman
	SS G. Torres/OPEN	RF Aaron Judge	CC Sabathia	Chad Green
	3B Miguel Andujar	OF Giancarlo Stanton	Luis Severino	Jonathan Holder
			Masahiro Tanaka	OPEN
BENCH	DISABLED LIST			OPEN
Austin Romine	Didi Gregorius	LIMBO		OPEN
OPEN	Ben Heller	Jacoby Ellsbury		OPEN
OPEN	Jordan Montgomery	Sonny Gray

Also on the 40-man roster: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Parker Bridwell, RHP Luis Cessa, RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Domingo German, RHP Joe Harvey, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, LHP Stephen Tarpley, C Kyle Higashioka, IF Hanser Alberto, 1B Greg Bird, IF Thairo Estrada, UTIL Tyler Wade, UTIL Tim Locastro, OF Clint Frazier.

That is a sneaky number of OPEN spots! I count seven. Four in the bullpen, two on the bench, and one at either second base or shortstop. The Yankees of course have in-house options for those seven OPEN spots and, in some cases, the in-house options are preferable to spending on a back of the roster player(s). Why spend money on a utility infielder who is no lock to perform better than Wade or Albert or Locastro, you know?

There are 18 healthy players on the 40-man roster who are not part of my projected big league roster in that table. We can drop those 18 players into one of five buckets. Let’s do exactly that.

1. Going to the minors (4). I think we can safely assume Abreu, Acevedo, Higashioka, and Estrada are going to begin 2019 in the minors. Higashioka is the third catcher and both Abreu and Acevedo have development remaining. They’re not MLB ready. Estrada missed basically the entire 2018 season with various injuries and needs to catch up on lost at-bats. The Yankees have plenty of other infield options.

2. Out of options (6). Six of those 18 players can not be sent to the minors next year without passing through waivers: Alberto, Bridwell, Cessa, Cole, German, and Kahnle. Chances are a few of these guys will be gone before Spring Training begins — the Yankees still have to open a 40-man spot for Happ, for example — but they’re on the roster right now, so they get dropped in this bucket.

Being out of options does not guarantee a player an MLB roster spot but it can be a tiebreaker. If, for example, the final bench spot comes down to Alberto or Wade, it could go to Alberto because he can’t be sent down and Wade can. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want German (long man/spot starter) and Kahnle (middle reliever) to shove in Spring Training and grab bullpen spots. But, if Bridwell or Cessa or Cole appear to be better options, then they’ll get the Opening Day bullpen assignments.

3. Other bullpen candidates (4). Adams, Harvey, Loaisiga, and Tarpley are bullpen candidates in addition to those out-of-options arms. Tarpley strikes me as most likely to win an Opening Day roster spot simply based on the fact he impressed enough in September to get an ALDS roster spot. Also, he and Chapman are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster, and Chapman’s the closer. He’s not going to be brought into a sixth inning matchup situation. Left-on-left relievers are largely disappearing from baseball, but Tarpley could crack the Opening Day roster.

My hunch is the Yankees want Loaisiga to go to Triple-A to begin next year. He impressed in his four-start cameo this summer (not so much in September) but the kid has never pitched in Triple-A and he has 196 career innings to his credit. I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to carry Loaisiga in their bullpen next year if he’s one of their best options — he has a scary injury history and you might as well get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again — but, in a perfect world, they’d be able to send him to Triple-A for more tune-up work.

Adams and Harvey are straight up bullpen candidates. Surely the Yankees hope to have better options come Spring Training, but, if they don’t, Adams and especially Harvey could win bullpen jobs. Adams might be at a disadvantage given his ability to start. The Yankees could send him to Triple-A to remain stretched out as the sixth starter and go with someone else in the bullpen. Adams wouldn’t be the first guy to lose out on a big league bullpen gig because the team wants stash him in Triple-A as a starter.

4. Second base/shortstop options (2). Assuming Estrada is indeed ticketed for Triple-A, the top in-house second base/shortstop candidates aside from Alberto are Locastro and Wade. I expect the Yankees to add a middle infielder at some point between now and Spring Training, but, if they don’t, those are the internal options. Locastro and Wade (and Alberto). Seeing how Wade was the Opening Day second basemen this year, and Locastro is more of an outfielder who can play second base than the other way around, I think Wade would be the guy right now. If the season started today, Wade and Gleyber Torres would be the starting middle infielders. That’s what I think.

5. Other bench candidates (2). We’re down to two names: Bird and Frazier. Two former top prospects who have lost a lot of time to injuries in recent years. We know all about Bird’s problems. Last year’s oblique injury and this year’s concussion issues have limited Frazier to 745 plate appearances and 182 total games the last two years. That’s a real bummer. Had he been healthy this past season, Clint could’ve filled in for Judge in August and who knows, perhaps he plays well enough to win the 2019 left field job outright and convince the Yankees to move on from Gardner.

As for Bird, gosh, I don’t know what the Yankees will do with him. Voit has clearly jumped him on the first base depth chart, but the Yankees do love Bird, and would it really shock anyone if they carried him on the bench next year? I mean, they did this year, right? It’s one thing to do it in August and just buy time until rosters expand on September 1st. It’s another to do it on Opening Day. The Yankees are an eight-man bullpen/three-man bench team and using two of those three bench spots on a backup catcher and a backup first baseman seems … unwise.

The x-factor here is Ellsbury. He’s coming back from major hip surgery and Brian Cashman is already hedging against Ellsbury being ready for Opening Day, but, if he is ready, he might get a bench spot by default. I think it is far more likely the Yankees will release Ellsbury than carry him on the roster next year, but what do I know? If he’s healthy and Frazier needs Triple-A time after all the injuries, carrying Ellsbury as the reserve outfielder could very well be in the cards. As for Gray, the other guy in limbo, he’s a goner. He’ll be traded at some point.

* * *

To me, Locastro is the under-the-radar guy to watch. He can play almost anywhere, he’s a .307/.402/.443 (128 wRC+) hitter in 471 career Triple-A plate appearances, he’s a great runner (169-for-208 career stealing bases, an 81% success rate), and he doesn’t strike out much (career 11.5% strikeouts). I’m not saying I want Locastro on the Opening Day roster. I’m just saying he’s currently the odds on favorite to be this year’s “no one expected him to make the team but he did” guy.

Anyway, we had seven OPEN spots in our original table and this is how I think the Yankees would fill them if the season started today, which thankfully it does not.

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Voit	LF Gardner	Happ	CL Chapman
	2B Torres/Wade	CF Hicks	Paxton	SU Betances
	SS Torres/Wade	RF Judge	Sabathia	SU Green
	3B Andujar	OF Stanton	Severino	MR Holder
BENCH			Tanaka	MR Kahnle
C Romine	DISABLED LIST			MR Tarpley
IF Alberto	Ellsbury	Heller		LG Cessa
UTIL Locastro	Gregorius	Montgomery		LG German

That leaves the out-of-options Bridwell and Cole out in the cold — the Yankees really seems to like Cessa — Loaisiga and Frazier getting regular playing time in Triple-A, and Bird in Scranton. As much as the Yankees like (or liked, once upon a time) Bird, I think they’re at the point where they need to see health and production before giving him a roster spot. That Voit is around as a viable first base alternative makes this even more likely.

Would the Yankees play Wade at second base and Torres at shortstop, or the other way around? Either way works, really. I think I’d prefer Wade at short and Torres at second because second base is Gleyber’s likely long-term position and he still has only 132 career games worth of experience at the position. My preference, whether the Yankees go internal with Wade (nah) or bring in a middle infielder from outside the organization (yup), is to keep Torres at second base. I’d have no problem with him at short. Second would be my preference though.

Anyway, this is all a very long way of me saying the Yankees still have some unresolved roster spots, maybe more than anyone realized. The middle infield is unsettled, two bench spots are unclaimed, and there are four open bullpen spots. It’s easy to see why the Yankees want two relievers, right? Yes, they can fill some of those spots internally and I’m sure they will. Filling all of them internally seems like a non-option though. The good news is there’s lots of offseason remaining. The bad news is the Yankees still have a sneaky large amount of work to do this winter.

The Yankees have questions all around their infield heading into the 2018-19 offseason

October 18, 2018 by Mike

Although the 2018 season had a (very) disappointing ending, it is exciting to look at the Yankees and know they are loaded with young talent for the future. Aaron Judge is a superstar through and through. He’s a top ten player in baseball. Then there’s Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar. Most teams hope to have two guys like that on their roster. The Yankees have all of them.

And yet, going into the 2018-19 offseason, the Yankees are facing some very real questions all around the infield. As recently as June or July it looked like the Yankees were set long-term around the horn, with a young and productive player at all four infield positions. Now, in October, that isn’t really the case. That isn’t to say the Yankees are in bad shape on the infield, because they’re not, but things are a little up in the air. Let’s take a trip through the infield.

First Base

Since Opening Day 2016 the Yankees have received a .234/.314/.403 (91 wRC+) batting line and +1.9 WAR from their first basemen. Among the 30 teams they rank 26th in AVG, 23rd in OBP, 29th in SLG, 29th in wRC+, and 27th in WAR. Gross. Even with the first base cast of characters combining for 34 home runs (!) in 2018, first base has been wasteland since Mark Teixeira’s last good season in 2015.

Right now, it is fair to wonder whether Luke Voit is legit, whether Greg Bird is salvageable, and whether Miguel Andujar is going to wind up at first base. The Yankees love Bird and I’m certain that if you gave Brian Cashman & Co. a truth serum, they’d say they want Bird to grab the job and run with it next year. I would like that too. Bird has power and patience, at least when healthy, and the Yankees could use another left-handed bat.

“We’ll see how the offseason unfolds, but right now, he grabbed that job, no question about that,” Aaron Boone said of Voit at his end-of-season press conference. “I’m sure there will continue to be competition on all kinds of levels. The one thing with Greg that I never lost is we’ve seen him be an impact player at times in his career … This year, in a lot of ways, was a little bit of a lost season for him.”

Honestly, I feel like nothing that happens with first base this offseason would surprise me. Stick with Voit? I could buy it. At the very least, he has to be given every opportunity to win a roster spot in Spring Training, right? Right. Stick with Bird? I could see that too. Trade for Paul Goldschmidt? Trade for someone else? I could totally see it. Sign Bryce Harper and put him at first? Eh, that’s a stretch. Point is, first base remains unsettled, even after Voit’s late-season showing.

“In some ways, (Bird) never got all the way back physically to, I think, where he’ll be next year,” added Boone. “I think there’s a realistic chance he comes into Spring Training next year, physically in a really good place with a chance of a normal offseason where he gets his body where he wants it. Hopefully the results from that will follow. He’ll have his opportunities. We’ve never lost sight of the fact that when he’s right, can really hit.”

Second Base & Shortstop

These two positions are tied together because Torres is going to play one of them next year. We just don’t know which one. Gleyber’s a stud, man. A 21-year-old kid hitting .271/.340/.480 (120 wRC+) with 24 home runs as a middle infielder thrown into a pennant race as a rookie is awfully impressive. Torres is a stud and I think we’re no more than two years away from him emerging as the Yankees’ best player. Not because Judge will collapse or anything. Just because Torres is that damn good.

The problem here is Didi Gregorius. He had Tommy John surgery yesterday. He’s expected to return sometime next summer but no one really knows when. Could be as early as May or June, or as late as August or September. The Yankees have to proceed as if they won’t have Gregorius next year. Although Tommy John surgery is fairly routine, it is a major surgery, and there could be setbacks or a slower than expected recovery. It happens and the Yankees have to be prepared for it.

Gleyber is a natural shortstop — I thought he looked way smoother at short this season than second base — and his flexibility allows the Yankees to replace Gregorius with either a shortstop or second baseman. I’d prefer adding another shortstop and leaving Torres at second, but, if the market cranks out better options at second base, then Gleyber moves over. The only question then is who is the backup shortstop? You’d have to dedicate a bench spot — only of three bench spots since the eight-man bullpen seems to be here to stay — to a shortstop capable infielder.

We know this much about second base and shortstop: One of these two positions is set. Torres will play one. Cashman said they’ll scour the offseason market for a player at the other position “whether it’s an everyday player or an insurance policy.” In a weird way, Torres is the most “sure thing” among Yankees infielders at the moment, and we don’t even know whether he’s playing second or short next year. We just know he’ll be there. Hmmm.

Third Base

By OPS+, Andujar just had one of the three best seasons by a rookie third baseman in the last 30 years. Kris Bryant (135 OPS+) is kinda out there in his own little world, but Andujar (126 OPS+) is right there with Evan Longoria (127 OPS+). Those are the only three rookie third basemen to best a 125 OPS+ since Kevin Seitzer back in 1987. Andujar had an incredible rookie season.

By WAR, Andujar had only the 16th best season by a rookie third basemen over the last 30 years. His +2.2 WAR puts him alongside guys like Gordon Beckham (+2.1 WAR), Akinora Iwamura (+2.2 WAR), and Garrett Atkins (+2.3 WAR). That’s how much value Andujar gave back with his glove. He had one of the best offensive seasons by a rookie third basemen in three decades and was still run of the mill in terms of overall value.

The Yankees told use exactly what they think about Andujar’s defense. They subbed him out in the sixth inning (!) for defense in the postseason. When it mattered most, the Yankees didn’t trust Andujar in the field, and I don’t really blame them. Range is a clear issue, and while Andujar has a strong arm, it plays down because his transfer is slow and his sidearm sling can cause the ball to sail wide of first.

“He made big strides this season. He has the athleticism, he has the hands and the arm strength. Preparation for the pitch and footwork are gonna determine if he becomes that frontline defender at third base. I do believe it is in there,” Boone said. “This winter is important for him as far as that goes. When I got here, there were all kinds of questions. He earned his at-bats with the way he swung the bat, but also by improving as much as he did defensively. Now it’s on all of us (to help him get better).”

For what it’s worth, earlier this week Cashman said during a radio interview that he expects Andujar to be the team’s third baseman next season. Of course he’s going to say that, right? The Yankees could be planning — and already enacting — a position change and they would still say they want Andujar at third base because it allows them to maintain leverage during trade and free agent talks.

I am weirdly ambivalent about Andujar’s defensive home next season. If the Yankees decide to keep him at third base for another season and let him work at it, I’m cool with it. And if the Yankees decide to move him to first base or left field (or DH), I’d be cool with that too. Ryan Braun had a great rookie year overall but was a defensive disaster, so he was moved to left field the next season. Could happen with Andujar!

Maybe this is a fluid situation. The Yankees might be planning to put Andujar at third base next season, but, if a better option comes along (trade for Nolan Arenado?), they’ll move him. Otherwise they’ll stick with it at least until Gregorius returns, then they can reevaluate their infield situation and figure out the best alignment. It could be that whoever replaces Didi plays well enough to stay in the lineup everyday, pushing Andujar somewhere else. We’ll see.

* * *

The good news is the Yankees are not devoid of infield talent. There are worse things in baseball than having Miguel Andujar as your starting third baseman, you know? Torres is a stud. Voit raked this year — maybe he is the Yankees’ Nelson Cruz or Jesus Aguilar? that late bloomer who finds it in his late 20s? — and Bird could still maybe be something. They have to replace Gregorius at least temporarily, for sure. A Didi replacement is a “must have” this winter.

At the same time, Voit may be more Shane Spencer than Cruz or Aguilar, and play his way to Triple-A. Andujar could struggle defensively again. I don’t see how you could count on Bird for anything. The Yankees don’t necessarily have an infield problem. They just have some things to sort out. Is Andujar the long-term answer at third? Is it time to bring in a veteran first baseman to stop the post-Teixeira revolving door? Who steps in for Gregorius? Those are all questions the Yanks will answer this winter.